Theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at CB

[rotting sea cow]

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

My personal guess is that Marsh's political views are shared by 70-80% of the Watchmen. They basically all hate the wildlings. Now, hating them and assassinating the Lord Commander are different, of course, but Marsh could very well have kept his most assassination plans to a core cabal group knowing fully well that the Watch would fall in line behind once the Bastard had been dealt with.

I agree with the bold part, but my impression is that Marsh is unjustly vilified (which doesn't mean he's innocent). Look to these quotes.

Quote

“A turncloak would tell you what you wished to hear and betray you later"

Jon to Stannis, aDwD

Quote

It is not the foes who curse you to your face that you must fear, but those who smile when you are looking and sharpen their knives when you turn your back.

Melisandre to Jon, aDwD

And what B. Marsh says? 

Quote

The lord commander must pardon my bluntness, but I have no softer way to say this. What you propose is nothing less than treason.

Bowen Marsh to Jon, aDwD

There are other instances too. So, turns out that Marsh is being quite honest with Jon in expressing his disagreement and conveying the worries of a good part of the Night Watch.

My take on this is that Marsh tried to hold back the would-be mutineers as much as he could and only the beyond-a-blunder Pink Letter reading convinced him that it was a lost cause.  One he is convinced he decided to strike himself instead leaving that to others.

This doesn't excuse him of course as he was likely aware of the plotting, but it is a situation not very dissimilar to the Barristan's Kingbreaker.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I agree with the bold part, but my impression is that Marsh is unjustly vilified (which doesn't mean he's innocent). Look to these quotes.

Jon to Stannis, aDwD

Melisandre to Jon, aDwD

And what B. Marsh says? 

Bowen Marsh to Jon, aDwD

There are other instances too. So, turns out that Marsh is being quite honest with Jon in expressing his disagreement and conveying the worries of a good part of the Night Watch.

My take on this is that Marsh tried to hold back the would-be mutineers as much as he could and only the beyond-a-blunder Pink Letter reading convinced him that it was a lost cause.  One he is convinced he decided to strike himself instead leaving that to others.

This doesn't excuse him of course as he was likely aware of the plotting, but it is a situation not very dissimilar to the Barristan's Kingbreaker.

The signing of the US Declaration of Independence was also 'Treason', doesn't make it wrong.  I agree with others on this thread who said that 'laws are not always just, and sometimes they need to be broken to do the right thing'.  For instance, in our current political climate, I have many treasonous thoughts towards our upcoming administration and I (and the majority of voting Americans) are on the right side of the argument.

[Nevets]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

My personal guess is that Marsh's political views are shared by 70-80% of the Watchmen. They basically all hate the wildlings. Now, hating them and assassinating the Lord Commander are different, of course, but Marsh could very well have kept his most assassination plans to a core cabal group knowing fully well that the Watch would fall in line behind once the Bastard had been dealt with.

I would put it quite a  bit lower.  Jon appears to have the support of the Rangers.  They have more familiarity and respect for the Wildlings than the other members, and seem more inclined to take the Others' threat seriously. I suspect most NW personnel are more or less indifferent; certainly not caring enough to the level of participation in an assassination or coup.

I think it was a small group whose plans were accelerated when Jon announced his intention to leave Castle Black and directly confront the Boltons.  This would cause them to lose the opportunity to act, plus place the NW in direct confrontation with the Crown's representative in the North.  At this point, I see no indication of extensive planning or a large conspiracy.

[Clegane'sPup]

Imagine me using this guys voice. Marsh was not the brains behind the assassination attempt on LC Snow.

 

[Lord Varys]

15 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I agree with the bold part, but my impression is that Marsh is unjustly vilified (which doesn't mean he's innocent). Look to these quotes.

Jon to Stannis, aDwD

Melisandre to Jon, aDwD

And what B. Marsh says? 

Bowen Marsh to Jon, aDwD

There are other instances too. So, turns out that Marsh is being quite honest with Jon in expressing his disagreement and conveying the worries of a good part of the Night Watch.

My take on this is that Marsh tried to hold back the would-be mutineers as much as he could and only the beyond-a-blunder Pink Letter reading convinced him that it was a lost cause.  One he is convinced he decided to strike himself instead leaving that to others.

This doesn't excuse him of course as he was likely aware of the plotting, but it is a situation not very dissimilar to the Barristan's Kingbreaker.

I don't think Bowen Marsh is a villain despite the fact that he killed Jon Snow. He did what he believed was right - and Jon did break his vows.

And as long as we don't know whether other officers/leaders were among the assassins I'd consider him the main architect of the assassination because he is the only important man among the assassins we know.

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

I would put it quite a  bit lower.  Jon appears to have the support of the Rangers.  They have more familiarity and respect for the Wildlings than the other members, and seem more inclined to take the Others' threat seriously. I suspect most NW personnel are more or less indifferent; certainly not caring enough to the level of participation in an assassination or coup.

But the rangers are pretty much destroyed as a group. Mormont took pretty much all of the rangers with him beyond the Wall and only very few people came back from the Fist and Craster's. This also includes a number of rangers from the Shadow Tower under Qhorin which teamed up with Mormont.

Another portion of people were killed at the Bridge of Skulls when Marsh led men from the Shadow Tower and Castle Black against the Weeper.

There rangers from Eastwatch don't seem to be as depleted as the others - that is, until Jon sent the ships to Hardhome.

If we assume Jon has most of his allies among the rangers then his power base might even be smaller than 80% of the black brothers - it might very well be that 90-95% of the NW ranks right now are either stewards or builders.

Also keep in mind that Marsh led quite a few Watchmen against the Weeper at the Bridge of Skulls. He might not be a ranger but he still commanded a decent portion of the black brothers into battle against the wildlings, and might thus actually have a decent following of loyal people among the Watch. Alliser Thorne, on the other hand, is simply neither well-liked nor popular because he routinely mocked and humiliated a lot of future Watchmen for over a decade.

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

I think it was a small group whose plans were accelerated when Jon announced his intention to leave Castle Black and directly confront the Boltons.  This would cause them to lose the opportunity to act, plus place the NW in direct confrontation with the Crown's representative in the North.  At this point, I see no indication of extensive planning or a large conspiracy.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that the Pink Letter caused the assassination as it happened. But this doesn't confirm that there weren't talks earlier on about an assassination and that Marsh and the others only stalled their hands because they feared that Stannis would execute them all upon his return.

The Pink Letter did not only cause Jon Snow to break his vows and declare war on the Boltons but it also 'confirmed' that Stannis was dead, untying the hands of the conspirators.

Also keep in mind that Jon would never have had a chance to defeat the Boltons with an army of wildlings if the Bolton actually had defeated Stannis. The fear and hatred of the wildlings in the North would have prevailed, and unless the Boltons had barely defeated Stannis, losing a lot of men in the process, there is little chance that Tormund's undisciplined men are likely to defeat even a fraction of Roose's well-trained personal troops, not to mention a Bolton-Dustin-Ryswell coalition.

[rotting sea cow]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Bowen Marsh is a villain despite the fact that he killed Jon Snow.

I don't think that either. That was the point of my post

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And as long as we don't know whether other officers/leaders were among the assassins I'd consider him the main architect of the assassination because he is the only important man among the assassins we know.

We need to look among those 'who smile when you are looking'.

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Also keep in mind that Jon would never have had a chance to defeat the Boltons with an army of wildlings if the Bolton actually had defeated Stannis. The fear and hatred of the wildlings in the North would have prevailed, and unless the Boltons had barely defeated Stannis, losing a lot of men in the process, there is little chance that Tormund's undisciplined men are likely to defeat even a fraction of Roose's well-trained personal troops, not to mention a Bolton-Dustin-Ryswell coalition.

This is another aspect which show that Jon might have been in a very special state of mind to consider that. He is first sending a significant force to Hardhome and then marching with the remaining fighters to the south. At best 1000, probably much less, most of them undisciplined and under armed (unless he wipe the NW armory clean). Even he declares himself as Jon Stark, a North with a victorious Bolton is heavily depleted of fighting forces. Seriously, this guy went nuts.

[Clegane'sPup]

When Mance has Jon in custody he asks who is in charge of CB. Mance reveals what he thinks about that.

SoS c15  Then who commands at Castle Black?" "Bowen Marsh." This time Jon answered at once. You must not balk, whatever is asked of you. Mance laughed. "If so, our war is won. Bowen knows a deal more about counting swords than he's ever known about using them."

Mance, later in the book says

SoS c73  Mance ran a hand along the curve of the great horn. "No man goes hunting with only one arrow in his quiver," he said. "I had hoped that Styr and Jarl would take your brothers unawares, and open the gate for us. I drew your garrison away with feints and raids and secondary attacks. Bowen Marsh swallowed that lure as I knew he would, but your band of cripples and orphans proved to be more stubborn than anticipated. Don't think you've stopped us, though. The truth is, you are too few and we are too many. I could continue the attack here and still send ten thousand men to cross the Bay of Seals on rafts and take Eastwatch from the rear. I could storm the Shadow Tower too, I know the approaches as well as any man alive. I could send men and mammoths to dig out the gates at the castles you've abandoned, all of them at once."

If I’ve got the series of events correct Slynt turns up at CB from East Watch and buddies up with Thorne before Marsh turns up with Mallister from Shadow Tower.

Slynt says to Jon

SoS c69  "Ser," snapped the jowly man. "You will address Ser Alliser as ser, and myself as m'lord. I am Janos Slynt, Lord of Harrenhal, and commander here at Castle Black until such time as Bowen Marsh returns with his garrison. You will grant us our courtesies, yes. I will not suffer to hear an anointed knight like the good Ser Alliser mocked by a traitor's bastard." He raised a hand and pointed a meaty finger at Jon's face.

Sam remarks about Marsh’s condition

SoS c75  It had turned out to be Ser Denys Mallister from the Shadow Tower, along with the wounded Bowen Marsh and the survivors from the fight at the Bridge of Skulls. <snip> . SoS c75  He was alarmed to see Bowen Marsh beside him, wan-faced and haggard, his head still wrapped in linen, but listening to all that Lord Janos had to say. When he pointed that out to his friends, Pyp said, "And look down there, that's Ser Alliser whispering with Othell Yarwyck."<snip> .SoS c75  " He was followed by Bowen Marsh, who stood with one hand on Lord Slynt's shoulder. "Brothers and friends, I am asking that my name be withdrawn from this choosing. My wound still troubles me, and the task is too large for me, I fear . . . but not for Lord Janos here, who commanded the gold cloaks of King's Landing for many years. Let us all give him our support."

It seems to me that Slynt and Thorne had been in cahoots, for whatever reason, before Marsh arrived back at CB. Marsh at the time of the choosing threw in his lot with Slynt.

Another interesting thing Marsh said

SoS c79  "When has Stannis Baratheon ever had much good to say of anyone?" Ser Alliser's flinty voice was unmistakable. "If we let Stannis choose our Lord Commander, we become his bannermen in all but name. Tywin Lannister is not like to forget that, and you know it will be Lord Tywin who wins in the end. He's already beaten Stannis once, on the Blackwater."  "Lord Tywin favors Slynt," said Bowen Marsh, in a fretful, anxious voice. "I can show you his letter, Othell. 'Our faithful friend and servant,' he called him."

At the time this activity was going on there is no way for Slynt & Thorne to know who was going to be elected LC.

Jon gets elected. Slynt gets beheaded. Marsh takes Jon on an adventure through the wormways (DwD c17) under CB. While they are down there it becomes apparent why Marsh is Lord Steward. He knows his shit.

When the wildlings are coming through the gate at CB (I’m kinda shaky on this but I think this is Tormund’s group) this little conversation between LC Snow, Marsh and Thorne takes place.

DwD c10  Bowen Marsh edged his mount up next to Jon's. "This is a day I never thought to see." The Lord Steward had thinned notably since suffering a head wound at the Bridge of Skulls. Part of one ear was gone. He no longer looks much like a pomegranate, Jon thought. Marsh said, "We bled to stop the wildlings at the Gorge. Good men were slain there, friends and brothers. For what?"  "The realm will curse us all for this," declared Ser Alliser Thorne in a venomous tone. "Every honest man in Westeros will turn his head and spit at the mention of the Night's Watch."

Jon sends Thorne out on a ranging and Thorne tells LC Snow one last defiant thing

DwD c28  "Dywen will be with you, and another seasoned ranger."  "We'll learn you what you need t' know, ser," Dywen told Thorne, cackling. "Teach you how t' wipe your highborn arse with leaves, just like a proper ranger."  Kedge Whiteye laughed at that, and Black Jack Bulwer spat. Ser Alliser only said, "You would like me to refuse. Then you could hack off my head, same as you did for Slynt. I'll not give you that pleasure, bastard. You'd best pray that it's a wildling blade that kills me, though. The ones the Others kill don't stay dead … and they remember. I'm coming back, Lord Snow."

Jon receives word Hewett is in charge of EW while Pyke is away

DwD c49  "No, my lady. This news was long awaited." Though the last part troubles me. Glendon Hewett was a seasoned man and a strong one, a sensible choice to command in Cotter Pyke's absence. But he was also as much a friend as Alliser Thorne could boast, and a crony of sorts with Janos Slynt, however briefly. Jon could still recall how Hewett had dragged him from his bed, and the feel of his boot slamming into his ribs. Not the man I would have chosen. He rolled the parchment up and slipped it into his belt.

Thorne had once served as master-at arms at East Watch. He has a friend Hewett temporarily in charge at EW. Clydas is in charge of the ravens at CB. No one knows where Thorne is. When Tyrion sent Slynt to the Wall he also sent six of Slynt’s cronies with him. One of them was supposed to die while on voyage. Where are the other five?

That’s why I think Marsh is a lackey and not the brain behind the attempt on LC Snow’s life. No one knows where Thorne is. He may have wormed his way back into CB.  He may have tampered with that pink/bastard letter. Farfetched? Maybe. Just a few reasons why I don’t think Marsh is the brains behind the attempt on Jon’s life. I say attempt because I think Jon is wounded not dead and resurrection is not necessary.

Wick slashed at his throat. Jon turned and it barely grazed his skin. Wick slashed at him again but Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back. Marsh stabbed Jon in the belly. Jon pulled it out. A third dagger took Jon between the shoulder blades. He never felt the forth knife. Only the cold …

Martin has led me down the primrose path before. I am looking forward to one day reading about the reconciliation of this cliffhanger that is tied into so much unfinished business.

[rotting sea cow]

On 12/21/2016 at 8:54 PM, Clegane'sPup said:

Jon receives word Hewett is in charge of EW while Pyke is away

"No, my lady. This news was long awaited." Though the last part troubles me. Glendon Hewett was a seasoned man and a strong one, a sensible choice to command in Cotter Pyke's absence. But he was also as much a friend as Alliser Thorne could boast, and a crony of sorts with Janos Slynt, however briefly. Jon could still recall how Hewett had dragged him from his bed, and the feel of his boot slamming into his ribs. Not the man I would have chosen. He rolled the parchment up and slipped it into his belt.

Thorne had once served as master-at arms at East Watch. He has a friend Hewett temporarily in charge at EW. Clydas is in charge of the ravens at CB. No one knows where Thorne is. When Tyrion sent Slynt to the Wall he also sent six of Slynt’s cronies with him. One of them was supposed to die while on voyage. Where are the other five?

That’s why I think Marsh is a lackey and not the brain behind the attempt on LC Snow’s life. No one knows where Thorne is. He may have wormed his way back into CB.  He may have tampered with that pink/bastard letter. Farfetched? Maybe. Just a few reasons why I don’t think Marsh is the brains behind the attempt on Jon’s life. I say attempt because I think Jon is wounded not dead and resurrection is not necessary.

You raise good points

1) Where is Alliser Thorne? I find unlikely that he came back directly to CB, but maybe went to Eastwatch, but Cotter Pyke would have mentioned it unless it was coincidental with him leaving. 

2) I also think that mentioning Hewett is interesting. Eastwatch is an important station, having more contact with the external world than even CB. We need to remember that Pyke cannot read/write and the attached maester is often drunk.  Maybe some important information regarding Jon arrived there.

3) Indeed there are five Slynt’s cronies 'missing'. Maybe they remained at Eastwatch, maybe they went with Pyke to Harthome, maybe GRRM forgot about them. Who knows...

4) I'm convinced that Clydas read the Pink Letter before handling it to Jon. I wanted to write a post about it, but cannot find the time.

Quote

"Clydas don’t look his proper self ... he’s more white than pink, if you get my meaning ... and he’s shaking.”

...

Mully had not been wrong; the old steward was trembling, his face as pale as the snows outside. “I am being foolish, Lord Commander, but ... this letter frightens me. See here?”

- last Jon chapter, aDwD

Granted the letter is addressed as "Bastard" but is this enough to make him shake like a leaf? No, he read the letter. This may explain oddities like the seal.

Did he add/delete things? Change the wording? The tone? Did he get help? I cannot say. But the difficulty in pinpointing the author may be telling something. Of course, he cannot be the original author as he doesn't know everything in the letter (like the Reek part).

Clydas is not a maester so he is not subject to their vows (which often do not seem be followed by even maester themselves).

Did he open other letters? Did he send info to King Landing, Dreadfort, etc?

[nategator]

Clydas is constantly referred to as "pink eyed", which makes me think this is GRRM's hint that he's working for the Boltons.  Not for nothing did GRRM really amp up the idea that maesters are not to be trusted by the lords they purport to serve -- (Lady Dustin's speech, Lord Mormont's suspicions, and Lord Bolton had a few maesters with him). 

If you are so inclined, you are invited to check out my essay series mapping out the idea that Roose QB'd the assassination.  https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/4a1vor/spoilers_everything_meanwhile_the_small_bolton/

[Clegane'sPup]

30 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

You raise good points

1) Where is Alliser Thorne? I find unlikely that he came back directly to CB, but maybe went to Eastwatch, but Cotter Pyke would have mentioned it unless it was coincidental with him leaving. 

2) I also think that mentioning Hewett is interesting. Eastwatch is an important station, having more contact with the external world than even CB. We need to remember that Pyke cannot read/write and the attached maester is often drunk.  Maybe some important information regarding Jon arrived there.

3) Indeed there are five Slynt’s cronies 'missing'. Maybe they remained at Eastwatch, maybe they went with Pyke to Harthome, maybe GRRM forgot about them. Who knows...

4) I'm convinced that Clydas read the Pink Letter before handling it to Jon. I wanted to write a post about it, but cannot find the time.

Granted the letter is addressed as "Bastard" but is this enough to make him shake like a leaf? No, he read the letter. This may explain oddities like the seal.

Did he add/delete things? Change the wording? The tone? Did he get help? I cannot say. But the difficulty in pinpointing the author may be telling something. Of course, he cannot be the original author as he doesn't know everything in the letter (like the Reek part).

Clydas is not a maester so he is not subject to their vows (which often do not seem be followed by even maester themselves).

Did he open other letters? Did he send info to King Landing, Dreadfort, etc?

You also raised some interesting points and questions. Normally I supply book and chapter with the quotes. Recently I have been having problems with numbers; making errors. I'll edit my post to include the book & chapter. It seems to help with the flow of Martin's information.

Tomorrow I will try to contribute dialogue to your interesting conversation.

 

[kissdbyfire]

23 hours ago, Nevets said:

I would put it quite a  bit lower.  Jon appears to have the support of the Rangers.  They have more familiarity and respect for the Wildlings than the other members, and seem more inclined to take the Others' threat seriously. I suspect most NW personnel are more or less indifferent; certainly not caring enough to the level of participation in an assassination or coup.

I think it was a small group whose plans were accelerated when Jon announced his intention to leave Castle Black and directly confront the Boltons.  This would cause them to lose the opportunity to act, plus place the NW in direct confrontation with the Crown's representative in the North.  At this point, I see no indication of extensive planning or a large conspiracy.

And not only I think the percentage of Marsh's supporters is much lower, but thinking about the aftermath, there's also the fact that the wildlings outnumber the black brothers 5 to 1. 

[Lord Varys]

31 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And not only I think the percentage of Marsh's supporters is much lower, but thinking about the aftermath, there's also the fact that the wildlings outnumber the black brothers 5 to 1. 

That is a separate issue. And keep in mind that most of the wildlings Stannis captured were long sent to the other castles and some of Tormund's people were, too. Not to mention that the Watch (i.e. Marsh) now controls all those hostages the wildlings delivered to Jon.

A very important consider in all this is also Cregan Karstark. George brings us back to this guy in Jon's last chapter and we simply have no idea what for.

[kissdbyfire]

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a separate issue. And keep in mind that most of the wildlings Stannis captured were long sent to the other castles and some of Tormund's people were, too. Not to mention that the Watch (i.e. Marsh) now controls all those hostages the wildlings delivered to Jon.

A very important consider in all this is also Cregan Karstark. George brings us back to this guy in Jon's last chapter and we simply have no idea what for.

They were sent to the other castles, yes, but Jon observes that the wildlings outnumber the crows 5 to 1 while in the Shieldhall. So, there are 5 times more wildlings than crows while he is being shanked. Add to that the fact that not all NW is with Marsh, and you have a bloody mess - literally. 

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

They were sent to the other castles, yes, but Jon observes that the wildlings outnumber the crows 5 to 1 while in the Shieldhall. So, there are 5 times more wildlings than crows while he is being shanked. Add to that the fact that not all NW is with Marsh, and you have a bloody mess - literally. 

Only if people quickly learn what has happened. The wildlings remain in the Shieldhall and Marsh's people might already control the wildling hostages. Not to mention that men who are drunk can be easily enough butchered by a much smaller number of attackers (as the Red Wedding proves).

And one has to ask the question whether a majority of the wildlings will want to do that. They were loyal to Jon, yes, but now he is dead and they are, essentially, free to do whatever the hell they want to do now. I'm pretty sure a large number of them will decide to abandon the traitorous crows and their infighting and head down south to a place where it is warm.

One should also keep in mind that not all the watchmen present at Castle Black might have been at the Shieldhall.

[kissdbyfire]

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Only if people quickly learn what has happened. The wildlings remain in the Shieldhall and Marsh's people might already control the wildling hostages. Not to mention that men who are drunk can be easily enough butchered by a much smaller number of attackers (as the Red Wedding proves).

And one has to ask the question whether a majority of the wildlings will want to do that. They were loyal to Jon, yes, but now he is dead and they are, essentially, free to do whatever the hell they want to do now. I'm pretty sure a large number of them will decide to abandon the traitorous crows and their infighting and head down south to a place where it is warm.

One should also keep in mind that not all the watchmen present at Castle Black might have been at the Shieldhall.

I disagree. But I suppose we'll have to wait and see what happens... We know from the text that when Jon is stabbed, men were pouring from all the adjacent buildings. Crows, wildlings, etc. I find it very unlikely that there were many wildlings who weren't in the Shieldhall. And just to throw a few numbers in there, the Shieldhall seats between 200 and 300; the NW had less than 400 men at the start of Dance; Tormund brought just over 3,000 wildlings, and they're all First Men. Purer First Men blood than the northerners, and thus much closer to the original NW. 

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I disagree. But I suppose we'll have to wait and see what happens... We know from the text that when Jon is stabbed, men were pouring from all the adjacent buildings. Crows, wildlings, etc. I find it very unlikely that there were many wildlings who weren't in the Shieldhall. And just to throw a few numbers in there, the Shieldhall seats between 200 and 300; the NW had less than 400 men at the start of Dance; Tormund brought just over 3,000 wildlings, and they're all First Men. Purer First Men blood than the northerners, and thus much closer to the original NW. 

Were those wildlings loyal to/friendly with Jon and his cause? Gerrick Kingsblood had become Selyse's man now.

The whole things depends on how many men killed Jon, and whether they have men in place to control the situation thereafter. They might have. Or not.

But even if they don't this isn't proof that things will come to blows at once. Not if Marsh controls the hostages already and the wildlings care about them.

I'm not sure what you want to tell me by pointing out that the wildlings would be mostly of pure First Men descent? Mance made it pretty clear that he was willing to bring the Wall down to lead his people to safety. And if they made no move to avenge Mance by killing Stannis and Mel there is also no reason to believe they would now want to die to avenge Jon Snow. They had a deal, but they weren't necessarily best friends. 

[kissdbyfire]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Were those wildlings loyal to/friendly with Jon and his cause? Gerrick Kingsblood had become Selyse's man now.

The whole things depends on how many men killed Jon, and whether they have men in place to control the situation thereafter. They might have. Or not.

But even if they don't this isn't proof that things will come to blows at once. Not if Marsh controls the hostages already and the wildlings care about them.

I'm not sure what you want to tell me by pointing out that the wildlings would be mostly of pure First Men descent? Mance made it pretty clear that he was willing to bring the Wall down to lead his people to safety. And if they made no move to avenge Mance by killing Stannis and Mel there is also no reason to believe they would now want to die to avenge Jon Snow. They had a deal, but they weren't necessarily best friends. 

I don't think Marsh or whoever is behind him pulling the strings has the numbers to control anything. Like I said, CB had less than 400 men at the start of the book. And yes, my feeling is that most wildlings would be willing to jump in the fighting that will ensue - and I have no doubts that there will be fighting immediately following Jon's stabbing. And even if they're not   100% on the "let's defend/avenge Jon Snow bandwagon", the vast majority will follow Tormund's lead. 

As to Mance being all for bringing the Wall down, that was just Mance pulling a Tormund - tall talk. And I think the fact that + 3,000 wildlings have purer FM blood than anyone south of the Wall will play an important part in the fight against the WW. 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don't think Marsh or whoever is behind him pulling the strings has the numbers to control anything. Like I said, CB had less than 400 men at the start of the book. And yes, my feeling is that most wildlings would be willing to jump in the fighting that will ensue - and I have no doubts that there will be fighting immediately following Jon's stabbing. And even if they're not   100% on the "let's defend/avenge Jon Snow bandwagon", the vast majority will follow Tormund's lead. 

Still, it depends who has the better weapons or access to weapons at all, and the like. And one has to wait and see how the assassins spin the assassination. How many people actually saw Jon being stabbed by whom? The assassins could have surrounded him so that witnesses might not have seen what happened.

The Watch might certainly be able to spin this in a way that Jon had to be executed. He openly broke his vows and that's not a wildling issue. It is an internal matter of the Night's Watch. Unless Marsh is utterly stupid he is not going to openly attack the wildlings if he has no chance of winning that battle. And the willdings are no united power bloc. They might begin to think for themselves again.

He might certainly have plans to rid himself of the wildlings. Say, by motivating them to continue with the Hardhome mission, etc.

In addition, there is the fact that the Shadow Tower and Eastwatch also still exist. If the wildlings basically butchered a lot of Watchmen at Castle Black then we would have a war at the Wall, with Hewett and Mallister eventually attacking Castle Black. They cannot allow the wildlings to control one of the gates through the Wall.

3 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

As to Mance being all for bringing the Wall down, that was just Mance pulling a Tormund - tall talk. And I think the fact that + 3,000 wildlings have purer FM blood than anyone south of the Wall will play an important part in the fight against the WW. 

That doesn't make any sense to me. First Men blood is never introduced to be special in and of itself. There might be magical blood lines among some First Men lineages but not in all of them collectively. And I don't see any reason why this should matter in relation to the Others.

And as to Mance - he did the best he could to break through the Wall at Castle Black. We don't yet know whether the Others and wights can actually walk through the gates once they are no longer blocked. Could very well be. Mance certainly helped them with that. In addition, his victory would have meant the destruction of the NW, and a Wall that's no longer guarded is very unlikely to keep the Others back for long when they finally make their move.

[Greywater-Watch]

On ‎21‎.‎12‎.‎2016 at 2:25 PM, rotting sea cow said:

We need to look among those 'who smile when you are looking'.

I had that in mind too, but then I realized that if I followed this road down, Tormund might possibly wait at the end, so I kept my feet off that track...

[Greywater-Watch]

On ‎21‎.‎12‎.‎2016 at 1:31 AM, Clegane'sPup said:

Marsh was not the brains behind the assassination attempt on LC Snow.

This is in fact my greatest worries when thinking in the direction of an extensive planning and even including the Pink Letter in the plot. Who at CB would have the wits for such a ploy worthy of the mind of a Littlefinger? Except for Melisandre (having in my view no motive) there are very few. Therefore I thought, Selyse and one or the other of her knights might have a finger in this, but I admit this is a very stretched assumption. To me, Marsh and Yarwyck do not have the Brains for that; maybe Clydas is underestimated.