Ser Scot A Ellison Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Russia's ambassador to Turkey was gunned down by an armed Turkish cop shouting about Allepo and Syria: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38369962 Dark times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakan Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Yes indeed dark times. I can only hope that Russia, Iran, Turkey will find a workable agreement at their trilateral meeting. Otherwise I cannot even imagine... Thank god, from a world POV, Trump got US president. With Clinton the whole Syria tragedy could have gotten totally out of hand. The Gulf Arabs will always be part of the problem. Too much money and nothing else to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 The rebels in Syria along with any area that they have is going to be bombed into nothing, right about at christmas time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 There's been an attack in Berlin; a truck plowed into a crowd. At least 9 dead and 50 wounded. Driver fled, motives not yet known for sure but German police apparently believe its terrorism-related. No idea if its connected in any way; or if the shooting in Zurich tonight is connected either. Its all scary though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 Fez, I suspect that if it is connected there will be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Hopefully this doesn't turn into a Franz Ferdinand type situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wouter Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 If the Russians believe that Erdogan had a hand in it, I think the reaction will be more weapons, like sophisticated anti-tank missiles, going to the Kurds. If they believe Erdogan to have nothing to do with it, they may use it to get a couple of concessions out of an embarrassed Turkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Kalbear said: The rebels in Syria along with any area that they have is going to be bombed into nothing, right about at christmas time. Merry Fucking Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Northman Reborn Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Russia will use it to their advantage in the weirdly complex political game they are playing with Turkey. Not too long ago Turkey shot down a Russian jet, let's not forget. Putin feigned suitable outrage to satisfy domestic opinion, then gained sufficient concessions from Turkey to re-establish relations. Right now he would love to use Turkey to settle the Syrian situation into some kind of long term peace deal, so if he can use this assassination to leverage some gains on this front he will do so. Putin ultimately plays the long game and will make useof unexpected events to move those goals forward, rather than gaining short term revenge to the detriment of his greater goals. Expect Erdogan to take a lot of heat, but ultimately for pragmatism to rule the roost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wouter Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 If the Russians decide they want to keep Erdo as an ally, expect them to suggest blame on (or to openly blame) western powers, in particular the CIA ("in cooperation with Gülen"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Fixit Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 FNR nailed it. As hideous as this murder is, Russia will use it as leverage against Turkey in the upcoming talks. Nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Northman Reborn Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 11 minutes ago, Wouter said: If the Russians decide they want to keep Erdo as an ally, expect them to suggest blame on (or to openly blame) western powers, in particular the CIA ("in cooperation with Gülen"). Unlikely. Rather just blame terrorism and agree to work together to eradicate it. No need to drag the US or Gulen into it. Rather leave Erdogan to fight that battle himself, thus weakening him and reducing his leverage in the relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakan Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said: Unlikely. Rather just blame terrorism and agree to work together to eradicate it. No need to drag the US or Gulen into it. Rather leave Erdogan to fight that battle himself, thus weakening him and reducing his leverage in the relationship. yes. I can also imagine that rather to antagonize the US, Putin will play it tactical, reach his hand out to Trump and say: you see those madmen? Let's stop this and make common cause in Syria. This time it was our ambassador, next time it might be yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 14 minutes ago, Arakan said: yes. I can also imagine that rather to antagonize the US, Putin will play it tactical, reach his hand out to Trump and say: you see those madmen? Let's stop this and make common cause in Syria. This time it was our ambassador, next time it might be yours. Less likely common cause and more of a silent agreement for the US to stay silent with respect to whatever horrors come out of Syria in the near future. And Erdogan would love more support getting Gulen out of the US, though per Eichenwald he's already got a ton of leverage on Trump with his development deal on hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakan Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Less likely common cause and more of a silent agreement for the US to stay silent with respect to whatever horrors come out of Syria in the near future. And Erdogan would love more support getting Gulen out of the US, though per Eichenwald he's already got a ton of leverage on Trump with his development deal on hold. I just don't know. To what end is this all leading? As a German the Syrian Civil war reminds me all too much of the Thirty Years' War...everyone against everyone, foreign powers, the war feeds the war... This madness must end. Assad will not go and if so, doesn't matter because he has support of a significant part of the Syrian population. So if he goes, another Assad will come. And now ambassadors get killed in a another country. Maybe now it's time for the US to join Russia, Turkey and Iran in working out a peace solution. And honestly, fuck the Gulf Arabs! Saudi Arabia and Qatar are part of the problem, not the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 I don't think the US is going to do anything about this. I think they'll use whatever flimsy bullshit Putin peddles to allow them to stay out of it, and say that Russia has whatever right to go in and obliterate Syria. This to me isn't a sign that there's going to be some giant world war. I think it's a sign that Trump has got even more reason to do fuck all, and it's a sign that Russia has got even more reason to attack civilians indiscriminately. There's really no one backing the rebels at this point, and that's going to only get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakan Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Your last sentence is not true. The US allies Qatar and Saudi Arabia pour money on the rebels like gasoline on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, Arakan said: Your last sentence is not true. The US allies Qatar and Saudi Arabia pour money on the rebels like gasoline on fire. The money by all indications isn't really reaching them particularly well, they don't have much in the way of supply lines at this point and the US - which had been attempting to help - is backing away. Furthermore, the rebels have nothing that is going to stop civilian airstrikes worth a damn, and if Russia/Assad is interested in blowing the shit out of Palmyra - which apparently they are - they're going to do that and the rebels are hosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wouter Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Turkey still supplies a lot (or Gulf supplies reach them through Turkey). The rebels who were attacking Foua and Kefraya until very recently did not lack artillery rockets (of common Russian designs, but not delivered by the Russians). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Just now, Wouter said: Turkey still supplies a lot (or Gulf supplies reach them through Turkey). The rebels who were attacking Foua and Kefraya until very recently did not lack artillery rockets (of common Russian designs, but not delivered by the Russians). Artillery rockets aren't going to be SAMs though. And I had thought Turkey was somewhat pulling back as well. Perhaps I'm wrong and they are still working on it, but the problem isn't going to be SA and Qatar at that point , it's going to be Turkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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