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Russia.. what's going to happen?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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On 12/20/2016 at 0:34 AM, Kalbear said:

I know you're not, but again - Russia said it. 

In July, the US and Russia agreed to tentatively go after ISIS. Later, Fox News reported (somewhat incorrectly) that they were attacking ISIS targets. Russia said that's what they wanted to do as early as October 2015.

But that really isn't what they've done, especially as of late.

That NYT article only mentions ISIS in the headline but the article itself spells out that Russia doesn't distinguish between ISIS and Al Nusra. And they definitely didn't promise to fight ISIS exclusively. The whole "but they are bombing the good guys" narrative is based on the fiction that everybody who is fighting against Assad and isn't ISIS is pro-Western democrats. They aren't

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2 hours ago, Loge said:

That NYT article only mentions ISIS in the headline but the article itself spells out that Russia doesn't distinguish between ISIS and Al Nusra. And they definitely didn't promise to fight ISIS exclusively. The whole "but they are bombing the good guys" narrative is based on the fiction that everybody who is fighting against Assad and isn't ISIS is pro-Western democrats. They aren't

When it comes to jihadists, Russia is correct. As Putin himself, I don't care whether the Russians fight IS, Al Nusra, Ahrar al Sham etc pp. 

I get the feeling that many people just don't have any idea how many head chopper groups are active in Syria...

The only (formerly) opposition group who deserves support have been the YPG/SDF...but guess what? Unfortunately they have been too successful fighting against IS and now Turkey (NATO) is smashing them down...

A pity Western media coverage of the YPG is sparse since...NATO country Turkey started to bomb the shit out of them. 

 

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I distinctly remember a post I made on these forums last year when the Western media was full of articles concerning heroic Kurds and how they're the only truly democratic opposition and how they present a very successful front against Islamists in Syria and Iraq. Remember all the attention on their women fighters, one beautiful girl in particular and whether she's still alive? Remember the sadfaced media coverage of glorious Kurdish resistance in the town of Kobane?

I posted back then how within a very short time frame, the moment Kurds became inconvenient again, their struggle would be completely forgotten and subjected to a total media blackout imposed by Western cheerleaders of democracy (where is Samantha Power now to vomit her cloying BS about shame?). Guess what. They are inconvenient right now -- just as Mosul is inconvenient and Yemen is inconvenient -- so they never existed.

And then certain posters ask people like me here how we can support "slaughter in Aleppo" or if we have no sympathy for poor little Twitter girls. As if only the people CNN and their ilk want me to mourn are worthy of mourning and saving. 

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15 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I just heard about it on FB and thought I'd share.  They tend to be Putin fans as well.  

Scot, when you post in threads why don't you for a change start to post content instead of oneliners or "answering" to comments with questions? Since I joined this forum in 2013 this has been your basic modus operandi (with exceptions e.g. US constitution). But what actually is your opinion? You opened that thread but where is your opinion? What is your opinion about 

- Syria war in general 

- Russian/American/Gulf Arab/Iranian/Turkish role 

- jihadists rebel groups not named IS

- the Kurds/YPG/SDF

A discussion only makes sense when people...discuss

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I think Syria is a foreign policy nightmare.  I think Russia and the West's actions there have made a terrible situation worse.  I really don't know what can be done to improve the situation other than all parties recognizing that everyone deserves their faith and killing them for it is evil.

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3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I think Syria is a foreign policy nightmare.  I think Russia and the West's actions there have made a terrible situation worse.  I really don't know what can be done to improve the situation other than all parties recognizing that everyone deserves their faith and killing them for it is evil.

So you would actually be sympathetic towards the Kurds (YPG/SDF)? What is your opinion to the fact that the group which fought against the IS the most and the group who had opened their arms for everyone (Arabs, Christians, women) are now being crushed down by the NATO member Turkey? 

How can it be that after we have been "live witnesses" to their struggle against the jihadists for almost two years, at first desperate (Kobane) and later more and more in the offense, that now there is almost a complete media blackout, be it in German, US, UK media? And it started with the Turkish offense in Syria. 

I can tell you about the mood of the Kurds I know: they feel betrayed by the US. They  feel like useful idiots. Again. And now that Turkey, Iran, Russia will find an arrangement, they fear that they will be totally crushed down. But they are not angry at Assad or Russia because they never expected anything from them in the first place. But it was the US who made them hope. And now? Now it seems that the US has decided that the geo-strategic partnership with Turkey, even under Sultan Erdogan, is more important than being true to the "friendship" with the Kurds. 

Well, Bismarck would say makes sense and I have to agree but please USA, please spare us then with moral outcries from the likes of UN ambassador Samantha Power. You should hear what Kurds in Germany have to say about her...

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I have had sympathy for the Kurds since the early 90s when I learned about them.  I argued in a position paper in college that the Kurds deserved a State of their own and that it would be a good counter to Iraq, Iran, and Syria and have the potential of de-escalating the civil war in Turkey by giving the Kurds a place of their own.

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4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I didn't know that there was a term for "Stalin Apologists". I present to you, the "Tankie":

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=tankie

Tankies have been around for years, since back in the Cold War when all the British Communist parties kept splittig and spent more time attacking each other than the bourgeoisie.

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45 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Malt,

This is the first I've heard of them, by that name.

The name is due to them supporting the Soviets sending in the tanks in Hungary in 1956, so it's been around a while.

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Ellison,

A tankie is a member of a communist group or a "fellow traveller" (sympathiser) who believes fully in the political system of the Soviet Union and defends/defended the actions of the Soviet Union and other accredited states (China, Serbia, etc.) to the hilt.

I find it funny that the author of that article, of all ex-communist countries he could have included, decided to mention Serbia (Yugoslavia) in the context of the actions and political systems of Soviet Union and China, i.e. hardcore communism. For one, it is widely known that the Yugoslav version of communism was pretty far from Soviet and that Yugoslavia under Tito had very strained relations with the Eastern bloc and was in fact oftentimes politically closer to the West.

During the Hungarian Revolution of 1956 when Soviet tanks stormed Budapest, Hungarian leader Imre Nagy was granted asylum in the Yugoslav embassy. Yugoslavia also publicly condemned Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia during the Prague Spring of 1968.

I know it's easy to clump all these guys together for the benefit of uninformed public, but it may be beneficial to be a bit more discerning in such matters.

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22 hours ago, Arakan said:

The only (formerly) opposition group who deserves support have been the YPG/SDF...but guess what? Unfortunately they have been too successful fighting against IS and now Turkey (NATO) is smashing them down...

A pity Western media coverage of the YPG is sparse since...NATO country Turkey started to bomb the shit out of them. 

 

For the moment, not much "smashing down" being done by "Euphrates Shields" (Turkey/FSA) against the Kurds. Erdogan promised an attack on SDF-held Manbji after Al-Bab was taken from Daesh, but yesterdays attack on Al-Bab failed as the Daesh employed their usual brainwashed idiots for suicide attacks. Anti-tank missiles were seen in action to, against Turkish armor. Taking urban territory from Daesh is not a walk in the park; it took the YPG a long time to fully control Manbji, too.

During the last few days, the YPG/SDF has been succesful in its own offensive against the Daesh in western Raqqa province and they now control most of the Eastern bank of Lake Assad, closing in on the Tabqa dam.

The situation of YPG/SDF is very complex. It consists of a Kurdish part with communist ideals and close links to the PKK, which is at war with Turkey. It also has a number of local Arab groups to make up the SDF part, those include local Arab sympathisers (also with communists leanings, presumably) and groups that were part of the FSA. The latter aren't keen on fighting Turkey and their ex-brothers in the FSA, for obvious reasons.

Relations with Turkey are of course hostile, and after the YPG ignored Erdogans demand to not cross the Euphrates by attacking Manbji with the full support of the Pentagon, they are on a war footing with a number of skirmishes having taken place. Relations with other Kurdish groups are also complex, with many of the Iraqi peshmergas being allied with Turkey (allthough they helped the YPG during the fight for Kobane) and the rest leaning towards Iran. 

And then there is the Assad regime, which sometimes acts almost as an ally (supporting the western enclave of YPG against the FSA and the Turkish army) and sometimes is at odds with YPG (like when they bombed Hasakah, leading to the Pentagon sending fighters to protect their own interests there). Assad has often declared that there can be no independence, or even much self-governance for the Kurds.

Both the Russians and the US have supported the YPG; the Russians have cooperated with the western enclave (Erbil) and they have acted as mediaters with the regime, while the US has a not insignificant military presence in the eastern enclave (Kobane) and has supported the offensives against Daesh (such as recently in Manbji and now in Raqqa province) with weapons, supplies, special forces and the US air force.

The question is how long either power can continue their stance of being allied with groups who hate each other. Russia is allied with Assad, whose interests won't coincide with the YPG/SDF for long, and they want to have a decent relation with Turkey. The US officially is an ally of Turkey but also views the YPG/SDF as the prime partner for fighting Daesh in Syria. And the pentagon has made an investment in their territory, even building a military airfield.

Many fear that at some point, both Russia and the US may decide the relationship to Turkey is more important than the Kurds and throw them under the bus. As long as the conflict between PKK and Turkey cannot be put on hold, this may be the likely outcome.

 

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Quote

Many fear that at some point, both Russia and the US may decide the relationship to Turkey is more important than the Kurds and throw them under the bus. As long as the conflict between PKK and Turkey cannot be put on hold, this may be the likely outcome.

This is already under way. 

The US will not abandon their ally Turkey. And it can be assumed that Turkey, Iran, Russia have found or are currently working on a practical solution wrt the YPG Kurds. 

I do not agree though with you including Russia in the group of those who are throwing the Kurds under the bus. Russia and Assad were never considered as allies by the Kurds but as factions with temporarily common interests. The Kurds feel betrayed by the US, not Assad or Russia. 

Furthermore I would not label the YPG/PKK Kurds as "communists". This is how the Turks are labeling them in order to discredit them. ideological basis for the YPG/PKK is more complex than that  

What I right now see are female YPG fighters kicking the ass of IS jihadists. And I see Arameans and Assyrians fighting side by side with secular Kurds and Turks. Surely the YPG are no choir boys but when you see for what they stand and against what they fight, you cannot help but support them...

They were the only ones (besides Assad ofc) who fought and protected the Aramean and Assyrian Christians. The laughing stock of the so called moderate rebels /FSA did fuck all when the jihadists started to destroy the Christian communities in Syria. 

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56 minutes ago, Arakan said:

This is already under way. 

The US will not abandon their ally Turkey. And it can be assumed that Turkey, Iran, Russia have found or are currently working on a practical solution wrt the YPG Kurds. 

I do not agree though with you including Russia in the group of those who are throwing the Kurds under the bus. Russia and Assad were never considered as allies by the Kurds but as factions with temporarily common interests. The Kurds feel betrayed by the US, not Assad or Russia. 

[...]

They were the only ones (besides Assad ofc) who fought and protected the Aramean and Assyrian Christians. The laughing stock of the so called moderate rebels /FSA did fuck all when the jihadists started to destroy the Christian communities in Syria. 

Sovietrussia was a traditional ally of the PKK, which is very close to the YPG. And Russia has been making moves to become friends with the YPG (IIRC they even sent a diplomatic representation to YPG territory), so far they seem to have been a moderating influence on Assad in this regard.

I agree that the current deal between Turkey, Iran and Russia will be very important for the future of the Kurds and their allies. Turkey was in a weak position, but OTOH Iran would be content to offer up the YPG to Turkey as a sweetener for Erdogan.

I think it's too early to tell what the US will do; right now they are still a factor because they have boots on the ground in the Kobane part. It will depend on the view of the new administration and on the deal they will have to hammer out with the other actors.

I'm not surprised the FSA didn't help the Christian communities. Too many groups were and are too close to the Nusra types and their ilk.

 

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@Wouter

nothing to disagree. That the PKK received support from the Soviet Union in the 1980s is true and made sense for the Sovietd from a strategic pov. All I am saying is that the Kurds are well aware that the Russians are allies at best in a Machiavellian sense, but many Kurds initially believed the rethorics of the US. And obviously now they fear that they were just useful idiots. 

The reason why I am a bit allergic to the label "communist" when it comes to the YPG is because this label has been used by all Turkish governments since the 1980s to discredit the struggle of the Kurds in they eyes of "the West". You know, boogeyman and all that...

Regarding your scepticism about what the US will do wrt the Kurds, well I am less "optimistic" than you. From a rational pov Turkey is one of the most important strategic assets the US has. Maybe even the most important NATO member from US view as it addresses both the Middle East and Russia. And that's IMO also the reason why the US has been relatively lenient towards Erdogan's shenanigans. And ofc the EU, Germany in particular, also need Turkey as ally as Erdogan holds the keys regarding the refugees. Merkel already bent over and everyone is very quiet and just watches how Erdogan step by step abolishes democratic norms and institutions in Turkey. 

I don't even believe anymore that Erdogan crossing the Rubikon (re-introduction of the death penalty) will have the consequences it should have, i.e. the end of Turkey's EU membership aspirations. 

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