Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Stormking902

Id Edmure was prepared for Tywins attack could he stop Tywins assault ?

14 posts in this topic

Since Tywin attacks the Riverlands under the kings peace they were not ready for such an invasion and thus were knocked off rather quickly. Lets say Edmure learns of the attack and properly defends his strongholds and keeps would he be able to prevent Tywin doing any real MAJOR damage?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess that depends on what you would consider important. If you consider farmland important and the preservation of fields and crops the most important, then there is no way the Rivermen would have been able to repel the westermen. Raiding parties can strike wherever they want, and there will always be a weak point when the defenders are trying to guard every inch of ground.

Preserving the people and forgetting about the fields may have worked, as the people could retreat to safer locations, but if there is nothing to eat because the food was all stolen or burned, then you have a problem too.

The riverlands was screwed from the outset.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We don't have good info about the Riverlands before the start of the war. All we know is that after two major battles, the Lannisters splitting off large chunks of the Riverladns, the Riverlords were able to produce ~15,000 troops between the three main hosts (11,000 with Edmure, 1,000 Frey cavalry with Robb, 3,000 Frey foot with Roose).

Assuming that they had ~20k at the start of the war (not including losses in the first two battles), they would be faced with the issue of the invading Lannisters and thier ~35,000 men. 

The Lannisters attacked in two groups, one of 15,000 men under Jaime attacked the small host under the command of Lord Piper and Lord Vance of Wayfarer's Rest. After the victory Jaime continues his attack of the Riverlands, while Tywin advances behind him and advances to the south-east, to link up with Gregor Clegane's band, which is baiting Beric into an ambush. Beric's band falls into the ambush at the Mummer's Ford. Tywin continues south of Jaime's host but on a roughly parralel course, taking castles and racing to the Kingsroad on the other side of the Green Fork and confront Robb's host. Jaime scatters the hastily gathered forces of the Riverlords at Riverrun and lays siege to the castle.

Edmure would want to prevent as much suffering from his people, so he is going with a hard defense strategy. With the new information that the Lannisters are planning an invasion via the Golden Tooth, Edmure would call the banners (again, he called them up the instant he heared that Catelyn took Tyrion, but Hoster over-ruled him as he was still lord), and foritfy a position opposite the Golden Tooth Pass in an easily defensible position. He would saturate the area with scouts to warn in advance of a large Lannister movement.

The Lannisters would be forced to attack, as simply going around his host would doom them to be cut off from supplies from the start. Edmure would of course also make certain that the major seats are well garrisoned, and as many of the population of the border area can find shelter in them, or be evacuated further east. 

Tywin would have at best ~2-1 ratio, not enough to promise victory in a bloody battle. The problem is that he is on the clock, as Robb is on his way and would be able to link up with the Riverlords within 3-4 weeks at most from the original date of the initial attack. Tywin can't simply leave a strong garrison at the Golden Tooth and try and circle from the north or south, because it would be too late. Either Robb has joined forces with Edmure and they now have parity of numbers, or Robb is already attacking King's Landing. A battle with Edmure is guaranteed. 

 

How does that battle go? If Edmure plays defense, like he showed that he can in the Battle of the Fords, Tywin will suffer heavy losses and likely lose. If Edmure gambles and charges for glory Tywin has a chance to win, but with heavy losses. Too heavy to continue through the Riverlands like he did in the books, and he won't be able to save King's Landing from Robb's army. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Nyrhex said:

Edmure would want to prevent as much suffering from his people, so he is going with a hard defense strategy. With the new information that the Lannisters are planning an invasion via the Golden Tooth, Edmure would call the banners (again, he called them up the instant he heared that Catelyn took Tyrion, but Hoster over-ruled him as he was still lord), and foritfy a position opposite the Golden Tooth Pass in an easily defensible position. He would saturate the area with scouts to warn in advance of a large Lannister movement.

I had forgotten that (or maybe just never noticed) - any mention of why Hoster would do something so foolish?

1 hour ago, Nyrhex said:

The Lannisters would be forced to attack, as simply going around his host would doom them to be cut off from supplies from the start. Edmure would of course also make certain that the major seats are well garrisoned, and as many of the population of the border area can find shelter in them, or be evacuated further east. 

Tywin would have at best ~2-1 ratio, not enough to promise victory in a bloody battle. The problem is that he is on the clock, as Robb is on his way and would be able to link up with the Riverlords within 3-4 weeks at most from the original date of the initial attack. Tywin can't simply leave a strong garrison at the Golden Tooth and try and circle from the north or south, because it would be too late. Either Robb has joined forces with Edmure and they now have parity of numbers, or Robb is already attacking King's Landing. A battle with Edmure is guaranteed. 

How does that battle go? If Edmure plays defense, like he showed that he can in the Battle of the Fords, Tywin will suffer heavy losses and likely lose. If Edmure gambles and charges for glory Tywin has a chance to win, but with heavy losses. Too heavy to continue through the Riverlands like he did in the books, and he won't be able to save King's Landing from Robb's army. 

If your analysis is correct, this is another element to the Young Wolf's defeat that's underappreciated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IIRC, it wasn't as if westermen simply swarmed into the riverlands all of a sudden.

After Catlyn took Tyrion, Tywin started massing a host on the border and sent Clegane in undercover to raid and burn. Riverrun sent messages to CR to have Tywin declare his intentions, as well as envoys to the IT to bring the matter to King Robert. Edmure marshals a force at the Golden Tooth, but then foolishly allows some of his bannermen go back to their own keeps to defend them from the raiding.

The heavy fighting didn't start until after Joffrey became king, when Jaime took the Golden Tooth, which then allowed both his and Tywin's army to enter the riverlands unmolested.

So it wasn't like Edmure was unaware or unprepared for war; just that he got feinted out of position. If he had kept his host together, he probably still would have lost though. The Golden Tooth is held by House Lefford, bannerman to Casterly Rock, so it's not like Edmure's forces held the castle; they were just amassed at the main pass.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Riverlands are very likely more populous than the Westerlands. So theoretically they should be able to match the West's troop numbers under conditions where the Riverlands are united under a strong leader.

The West has raised about 41k troops to date, including mercenaries and the dregs of Lannisport's back alleys. The Riverlands should be able to match that, if they are prepared.

Edited by Free Northman Reborn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

Since Tywin attacks the Riverlands under the kings peace they were not ready for such an invasion and thus were knocked off rather quickly. Lets say Edmure learns of the attack and properly defends his strongholds and keeps would he be able to prevent Tywin doing any real MAJOR damage?

 

If Edmure was in fact either Baelor Breakspear or Bloodraven then yes, Edmure would be able to stop Tywin from wrecking havoc in the Riverlands. The problem is of course that Edmure isn't Bloodraven or Breakspear reborn.

For the first thing the Riverlands were ready for the Lannisters as given the facts that there were a detachment by the Golden Tooth and the banners had already been called together when the Lannisters came. The "brigands" under Clegane were known to be Lannister ones and at no point did the Westerlands have a suprise on the Riverlands during the invasion.

If Edmure learns of the attack then pretty much everything will still play out given how he isn't a veteran like Tywin or a talent like Jaime in the fields of warfare, and would likely be beaten just as badly as Jamie did beat him outside Riverrun. If Edmure is further dividing his forces to strongly protect every castle in the Riverlands then he may end up with even less men than he had in the actual fighting in his field army. The Seven alone knows how many thousands of men Harrenhall for example would swallow before it is properly defended.

So yes, Edmure could defeat the Lannisters, but he would need vastly superiod numbers, pick a new battlefield or be much more talented than he is the books, for the defense to hold against a western thrust.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also - The Tullys were fooled by Roberts presence on the throne and didn´t call their banners fast enough. The false sense of security simply made the mobilization slow (I am sort of willing to believe Walder Frey in this - I don´t think he was given an order of urgency, but rather a command to gather as much as he could). And they focused more on presenting their case to the king than actually defending. 

A different order to his bannerman, pressing the point of swiftness might have made wonders - as well as the understanding that this is a "total war" as well as a different tactic in basically every aspect. But the main problem is not the awareness of the attack. Riverlands sort of had that. What they need to understand is that Robert won´t make the war end. Thats the real information they need, that the king´s peace matters naught. They need to get that they will be fighting a war "for real". 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think Edmure could stop Tywin from occupying the Riverlands, but he can throw him out, and throw almost any invader. This is assuming Tywin wants to take over that region (which I doubt, but this is a role play so.).

What we seen of the Tully is a somewhat crannogmanish strategy: harassing enemy vanguards and the effective use of the terrain to spy (Brynden and his riders), setting up strong deffensive positions (Edmure). 

The riverlords are historically hard to subdue and to keep in check. The Hoare dude who reigned there battled one rebellion after another. I suppose that's mainly because of the Riverlands terrain, that favours guerrilla tactics and also the "tradition" of fractured power balance in the region (a lot of inner feuds, of which Blackwood/Brackens may be the most famous). Only time they did surrender was to dragons, that could literally burn everything. No escape from that.

Anyways, against a normal army and a ruthless commander, Edmure could endure and in the end throw him out. Conditio sine quanon is never engaging open field battles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, King Merrett I Frey said:

I don't think Edmure could stop Tywin from occupying the Riverlands, but he can throw him out, and throw almost any invader. This is assuming Tywin wants to take over that region (which I doubt, but this is a role play so.).

What we seen of the Tully is a somewhat crannogmanish strategy: harassing enemy vanguards and the effective use of the terrain to spy (Brynden and his riders), setting up strong deffensive positions (Edmure). 

The riverlords are historically hard to subdue and to keep in check. The Hoare dude who reigned there battled one rebellion after another. I suppose that's mainly because of the Riverlands terrain, that favours guerrilla tactics and also the "tradition" of fractured power balance in the region (a lot of inner feuds, of which Blackwood/Brackens may be the most famous). Only time they did surrender was to dragons, that could literally burn everything. No escape from that.

Anyways, against a normal army and a ruthless commander, Edmure could endure and in the end throw him out. Conditio sine quanon is never engaging open field battles.

I have to disagree with this, I'm afraid.

To start with the Riverlands are not renowned for either their guerilla warfare or their nationalism, as Dorne is, which leaves little reason to think they could pull off a Dorne on Tywin. Also note that the whole thing with the Crannogmen is that they practice asymmertric warfare within their chosen enviroment where they have and advantage, something the Riverlands have not shown themselves adept at. Now the Riverlands have of course Brynden Tully and a history of using trickery, at least in the Dance, but at the end of the day those are extra stuff to their conventional warfare. The Riverlands don't fight like either the Dornish or Crannogmen on their home turf.

I also have to disagree that the Riverlords are particular hard to subdue. Throughout their history the Riverlands have been conquered by first the Andals, then the Stormkings and finally the Ironborn before the Targaryens showed up. At no point did the Riverlords manage to throw off an outside rule by themselves but it was always done through the intervention of another outside force. What the Riverlords are more known for is being very fractious and divided, as exeemplified by the Bracken-Blackkwood feud.

And the Riverlords surrendered to both Storm Kings, Ironborn, Dragons and finally Lions.

To this a guerilla movement needs the support of the local population and I've yet to see anything that shows there's such a support for native rulers among the smallfolk. The people at Harrenhall for example were pretty ok with working for Tywin's men. The Brotherhood without Banners pulled it off by their serious commitment to the smallfolk, and given Brynden's treatment of the smallfolk at Riverrun when the crown's men showed up, I doubt that he could rally much popular support.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

I have to disagree with this, I'm afraid.

To start with the Riverlands are not renowned for either their guerilla warfare or their nationalism, as Dorne is, which leaves little reason to think they could pull off a Dorne on Tywin. Also note that the whole thing with the Crannogmen is that they practice asymmertric warfare within their chosen enviroment where they have and advantage, something the Riverlands have not shown themselves adept at. Now the Riverlands have of course Brynden Tully and a history of using trickery, at least in the Dance, but at the end of the day those are extra stuff to their conventional warfare. The Riverlands don't fight like either the Dornish or Crannogmen on their home turf.

I also have to disagree that the Riverlords are particular hard to subdue. Throughout their history the Riverlands have been conquered by first the Andals, then the Stormkings and finally the Ironborn before the Targaryens showed up. At no point did the Riverlords manage to throw off an outside rule by themselves but it was always done through the intervention of another outside force. What the Riverlords are more known for is being very fractious and divided, as exeemplified by the Bracken-Blackkwood feud.

And the Riverlords surrendered to both Storm Kings, Ironborn, Dragons and finally Lions.

To this a guerilla movement needs the support of the local population and I've yet to see anything that shows there's such a support for native rulers among the smallfolk. The people at Harrenhall for example were pretty ok with working for Tywin's men. The Brotherhood without Banners pulled it off by their serious commitment to the smallfolk, and given Brynden's treatment of the smallfolk at Riverrun when the crown's men showed up, I doubt that he could rally much popular support.

Guerrilla warfare and nationalism are two different things. Yep, I agree: the riverlands are not known for nationalism, their allegiance to the Tullys is an imposed thing and has been like that for centuries under Targaryen rule, but I can't remember saying they are have in any way a strong national backbone that keeps them fighting outside rule. What they have done is rallying behind an external force to overthrow or fight another external force: they did it against the Storm Kings (helping the Hoares), the Hoares (helping the Targaryen), and the Baratheon/Lannisters (helping the Starks, at least for a while). You left out that they haven't just been conquered: they actively helped the new invader or force that oppose the one in charge at the moment. They did surrendered to the Targs. And as I said, t'was mainly because of draggins

Also, note that I employed the crannogmanish wordish :P . In the War of the Five Kings, the Tullys participated in the Battle of the Camps (which consisted on busting the enemy's butt using the terrain and tricks) to a less extent but decisively, but mainly in the Fords (a river again, this time used as deffense). Both military tactics are akin to the crannogmen, since they also use the terrain and play deffensive. What's different about the riverlands is that they are pretty much accessible, whereas the Neck was hard to even enter. 

About the Brotherhood. Well, it's still early to see how they fare in the long run, although they have had military victories and before lady Stoneheart arrived there was increasing smallfolk support. They are for me a question mark. I guess Martin left them out like that as the far the books go. 

Edited by King Merrett I Frey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess they could do as Edmure did later, that is defend the river bank and hinder the army from crossing. however that always entails sacrificing parts of the Riverlands to defend the rest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the books Edmure wasn't unaware. He sent the Piper's and Vance's to form a garrison at the entrance to the Golden Tooth pass. This army was destroyed by Jaime easily. The rest of Edmure's force was scattered deliberately. In an attempt to protect all of his people, Edmure had his host scatter into small forces that he placed along the border; these border forces were wiped out by Tywin piecemeal. I believe it may have only been the Blackwood and Tully forces that formed up at Riverrun. The Frey's, we know, didn't march.

However, if Edmure had called all of his bannermen to Riverrun from the start and then marched to the Golden Tooth, he could have gathered about 20,000 men. Not enough that he could beat the entire Lannister host but he could defeat Jaime's force as it left the Golden Tooth. They would probably still be defeated by Tywin straight away afterwards, so they could not stop the invasion completely, but they could probably do some damage to Tywin's host. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, King Merrett I Frey said:

Guerrilla warfare and nationalism are two different things. Yep, I agree: the riverlands are not known for nationalism, their allegiance to the Tullys is an imposed thing and has been like that for centuries under Targaryen rule, but I can't remember saying they are have in any way a strong national backbone that keeps them fighting outside rule. What they have done is rallying behind an external force to overthrow or fight another external force: they did it against the Storm Kings (helping the Hoares), the Hoares (helping the Targaryen), and the Baratheon/Lannisters (helping the Starks, at least for a while). You left out that they haven't just been conquered: they actively helped the new invader or force that oppose the one in charge at the moment. They did surrendered to the Targs. And as I said, t'was mainly because of draggins

I agree that guerilla and nationalism are two different things. What I wanted to say are however for a successful guerilla campaign the civilian population must be with the guerillas. As such its either making the smallfolk feel like this is Riverlands vs foreigners OR do as the Brotherhood without Banners did and win the smallfolk's support that way. As such it would be hard to summon this support for the Tully-lead guerilla when there seems to be little nationalism to draw on and would seem to be little compassion with the prime leader for a Tully guerilla movement in the Blackfish for the smallfolk, and thus hard to win their support that way.

its true that the Riverlords helped with their own conquest, but the most important fact is that willing participants are found in the Frey clan and that at no point in their history the Riverlords have managed to summon the strength to expel outside rulers on their own.

As far as I can know there's no difference between the Riverlords surrendering to the Hoares or the Targaryens. Both were forces that came in to remove a previous unwanted ruler and then stayed around. The big difference is that the Targaryens didn't take full control by themselves over the Riverlands but left it to the Tullys to handle the details.

And we can see howe well that came about for House Targaryen as the years passed on.

5 hours ago, King Merrett I Frey said:

Also, note that I employed the crannogmanish wordish :P . In the War of the Five Kings, the Tullys participated in the Battle of the Camps (which consisted on busting the enemy's butt using the terrain and tricks) to a less extent but decisively, but mainly in the Fords (a river again, this time used as deffense). Both military tactics are akin to the crannogmen, since they also use the terrain and play deffensive. What's different about the riverlands is that they are pretty much accessible, whereas the Neck was hard to even enter. 

Well, you didn't specify what aspect of the Crannogmen you meant and the definition of Crannogmen as using the terrain is so basic that effectively anyone who has ever commanded a force in battle was Crannogmanish. Bloodraven was it at the Redgrass Field, Lannister and Gardener was Crannogmanish it at the Field of Fire, as was Aegon, Tywin was it at the Green Fork, Jamie was it when he cornered Eddard Stark in King's Landing and so on.

5 hours ago, King Merrett I Frey said:

About the Brotherhood. Well, it's still early to see how they fare in the long run, although they have had military victories and before lady Stoneheart arrived there was increasing smallfolk support. They are for me a question mark. I guess Martin left them out like that as the far the books go. 

I agree and that's why the Brotherhood would be a viable guerilla force. The problem is of course that they are not fighting to keep the Riverland lords in power but to protect the smallfolk and seems to have a direct lack of Riverland lords and ladies among their members.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.