A reason why Petyr wants Sweetrobin dead

[Daendrew]

In AFFC Petyr gives Sansa a very long genealogy lesson as to why Harrold Hardying is "the heir."

 

Quote

Her eyes widened. "He is not Lady Waynwood's heir. He's Robert's heir. If Robert were to die . . ."

Petyr arched an eyebrow. "When Robert dies. Our poor brave Sweetrobin is such a sickly boy, it is only a matter of time. When Robert dies, Harry the Heir becomes Lord Harrold, Defender of the Vale and Lord of the Eyrie. -A Feast for Crows - Alayne II

3

 

But he failed to give Sansa a genealogy lesson closer to home.

 

Right now the Lannisters are out to get Edmure Tully and Brynden Blackfish. Suppose that those two are out of the picture then under agnatic-cognatic inheritance, Riverrun and the Lord Paramountship falls to Lysa Tully, the eldest daughter of Riverrun, and to her only surviving heir.

 

Peter has been named Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and Sweetrobin would have a better claim to it than Petyr and the Knights of the Vale to support Robert's claim were he ever to push it.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Catlyn was older than Lysa, Riverrun and Harrenhall go to all of her children before any of Lysa's.  Sansa therefore has the stronger claim than Robert anyway.

[Cagey Bee]

Sansa is a female, though and females can often be overlooked in succession. It would be a messy one to sort out... Sansa has the better claim, but Lord Robert is a male.. With no known surviving Stark males and Sansa and "Arya" being married off, it may default to Robert. I'm not sure I can pick a side here..

[Cagey Bee]

Either way, Petyr is in a good spot, of sorts.

[aryagonnakill#2]

As Robert is already lord of the Vale, and an unhealthy child younger than Sansa, I dont think it would be that messy.  If he were a healthy adult I would agree.  Under the current regime LF is the lord anyway, but were there to be a regime change, Sansa would be the clear pick.  

[House Beaudreau]

17 hours ago, Daendrew said:

In AFFC Petyr gives Sansa a very long genealogy lesson as to why Harrold Hardying is "the heir."

 

 

But he failed to give Sansa a genealogy lesson closer to home.

 

Right now the Lannisters are out to get Edmure Tully and Brynden Blackfish. Suppose that those two are out of the picture then under agnatic-cognatic inheritance, Riverrun and the Lord Paramountship falls to Lysa Tully, the eldest daughter of Riverrun, and to her only surviving heir.

 

Peter has been named Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and Sweetrobin would have a better claim to it than Petyr and the Knights of the Vale to support Robert's claim were he ever to push it.

Petyr is Lord paramount of the Trident. The issue is settled. Robert's Tully blood has been disinherited from any claims of RIverrun. The Freys own Riverrun and Harrenhal is the new seat of the Trident. Sansa and Starks have no claim left to Winterfell, the Boltons own Winterfell and only marry fake Arya to gain the support of the Northerns.

These are decrees by the crown, which mean if anyone tries to challenge this ruling by pressing a claim they instantly become rebels and will be stripped of all titles. Littlefinger would never let SweetRobin press a claim of the riverlands because he would risk the crown stripping his titles in the Vale.

Littlefinger controls the Vale through Robert or Harry if SweetRobin dies. He owns the Riverlands as well. I don't think LF cares if Robert lives or Dies, His claim is just a means to an end. I also believe that LF has Tyrek Lannister who is only a few deaths away from being the Lord of Casterly Rock and would have the best claim as Warden of the West.  LittleFinger wants the Iron Throne. Controling regions and high Lords (many who are in debt to him) who would support his claim at a great council or through conquest I think this is Littlefingers end game.     

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Disposing of another heir to House Tully doesn't make Littlefinger's claim to the Riverlands any stronger - it doesn't hang on blood, but on Tywin Lannister's royal decree. When a new arse sits on the Iron Throne, no amount of dead Tullys will make Littlefinger look a true Lord Paramount of the Trident.

[Scorpion92]

Littlefinger wants Sweetrobin dead for another reason: he wants Harry the Heir to become Lord Arryn of the Vale, marry Alayne to him, get Alayne pregnant with a child (preferably with Littlefinger's kid), and get rid of Harry. He will also at some point unveil Alayne, which will "wake the dragon from the stone" (Alayne STONE).

What he will have is Sansa Stark, who has a claim on the North and Riverlands, pregnant with future Lord/Lady of the Eyrie and the Vale.

But of course, it will never play out the way Littlefinger wanted.

[Greywater-Watch]

I am not so sure if LF is really eager to see Sweetrobin dead, at least not so soon. That would replace Sweetrobin by Harry Harding, who might be harder to control.

At the moment things are well under control, so LF will not attempt any harm to Sweetrobin for the next time, I believe. The marriage between Sansa and Harry, which LF is about to prepare, is securing Sweetrobin's succession (in case he should die of illness), which would leave LF still in the game. And it binds Sansa to him (at least she believes LF cares for her).

But what LF really looks for is time, giving him the possibility to strengthen his position, amongst others by creating a monopoly of wealth and provisons and by gathering the Lords of the Vale behind him..

[aryagonnakill#2]

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I am not so sure if LF is really eager to see Sweetrobin dead, at least not so soon. That would replace Sweetrobin by Harry Harding, who might be harder to control.

At the moment things are well under control, so LF will not attempt any harm to Sweetrobin for the next time, I believe. The marriage between Sansa and Harry, which LF is about to prepare, is securing Sweetrobin's succession (in case he should die of illness), which would leave LF still in the game. And it binds Sansa to him (at least she believes LF cares for her).

But what LF really looks for is time, giving him the possibility to strengthen his position, amongst others by creating a monopoly of wealth and provisons and by gathering the Lords of the Vale behind him..

I have a theory that the engagement is just a cover so LF can kill Harry without causing suspicion on himself.  As you say LF's power in the Vale comes from being Roberts protector, should he die LF looses all power in the Vale, Harry would name Royce the protector or take over himself with Royce as his adviser.  With Harry out of the way there might be no clear heir to Robert, and whoever it is might not be in Bronze Yhons camp.

[KingMance]

11 hours ago, House Beaudreau said:

I also believe that LF has Tyrek Lannister who is only a few deaths away from being the Lord of Casterly Rock and would have the best claim as Warden of the West.  LittleFinger wants the Iron Throne. Controling regions and high Lords (many who are in debt to him) who would support his claim at a great council or through conquest I think this is Littlefingers end game.     

Is this implied anywhere in the books? I've been pretty curious about tywins lost bros, but this seems like a pretty big stretch

[White Ravens]

Another reason to want Sweetrobin dead is that he is just too annoying to live.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

12 hours ago, House Beaudreau said:

I also believe that LF has Tyrek Lannister who is only a few deaths away from being the Lord of Casterly Rock and would have the best claim as Warden of the West.

Quite a few deaths away, actually. Cersei, Tommen, Myrcella, all Kevan's remaining children, Genna and all her children, and only then Tyrek.

Not to mention one doesn't have a claim to be warden. The office is appointed, not hereditary. It usually passes from father to son, unless the Crown just doesn't feel like it and gives it to whoever pleases their fancy (Jaime Lannister for the East, Roose Bolton for the North, Daven Lannister for the West).

[House Beaudreau]

9 hours ago, KingMance said:

Is this implied anywhere in the books? I've been pretty curious about tywins lost bros, but this seems like a pretty big stretch

Im Glad you ask I love talking about this. I agree that it is a stretch but here is my evidence. 

The main point of my argument that most people don't buy into is this

1) Littlefinger was behind the Bread Riot in Kings Landing. I know that the Riot seemed very organic and spur the moment but Littlefinger could have easily planted people in the crowd to throw the shit a Joffery and then watch and see what happens. anyone who know Joffery could predict his reaction.

             a) All the deaths in the Riot seemingly benefit Littlefinger. 1Aaron Santigar, he is the only other man in kings landing besides Tyrion that knows the truth about the Dagger that was used in the attempt on Brans life.  2. the High septon is killed by the "Mob" also, this one goes back to the first small council meeting where LittleFinger mentions that the High Septon has been making it difficult to barrow money from the faith. I believe LitttleFinger is trying to beggar the realm to as many sources as possible, the faith, the Iron bank etc. and he want the High Septon out and someone new in. 3 Ser Preston Greenfield, two things her. He is beats Sansa and treats her like a stupid child, which might make Littlefinger upset but I really think his death is More about having an opening in the Kings Guard. Balon Swann takes his place and Littlefinger want Swann to stop being quarted by the Stokeworths for a marriage to Lollys. If you remember LittleFinger is having dinners with the Stokeworths as well as Swann. I dont think LittleFinger wanted to marry Lollys but I think he doesnt want anyone to marry anyone. which leads to the next point

             b. Lollys getting rape half a hundred times. the Stokeworths have desperately trying to find a match for her. Her rape and getting pregnant with a rape bastard pretty much ruins and marriage plans to anyone.  the Stokeworth have good land and full coffers and Lollys is the heir if her sister dies. Someone would be willing to marry her until the rape then planning would be slowed down.

            c. Sansa almost gets raped and saved by the Hound. I think Littlefinger wanted her to get raped. I think Littlefinger would have made a claim for the damaged goods Sansa after Joffery put her aside if she was raped. had she been raped I think Littlefinger would have asked for her after the blackwater when Joffery chooses Margery.

             d. A gold smith is also killed later which Littlefinger would really be the only supect from the small council.

Lastly Tyrek Lannister goes missing. Very few people realize the importance of Tyrek. After Tommen, Myrcella, and Cersi, Tyrek is the heir to Casterly rock. making him very valuable. LittleFinger likes to collect powerful wards. he has Sweet Robin, he has Harry the Heir, he has got two other wards from lesser houses in the Vale. He has Sansa, He jumped at the chance to broker for Myrcella. He willingly took Jayne Poole.  He likes to collect important people. Tyrek is easily forgotten and super valuable. I don't he just died and disappeared. they found greenfields body eventually if Tyrek was dead they would have eventually found out about it. if he is missing someone has him and my money is on Littefinger.  

 

[House Beaudreau]

10 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Quite a few deaths away, actually. Cersei, Tommen, Myrcella, all Kevan's remaining children, Genna and all her children, and only then Tyrek

Tyrek would come before Genna and her children, not only does he have the right last name but he comes from the male line. Kevan's sons Lancel would inherit anything anymore, so the line of succession to Casterly Rock would be this as I see it after all the events of the books.

Cersi, Tommen, Myrcella, Martyn Lannister, Janei Lannister, then Tyrek. so like I said only a few deaths away from being heir to Casterly Rock. If littlefinger has Tyrek, then arranging Cersi, Tommen and Myrcella's deaths.   and as I always say that the line isn't always as important as have a good claim which Tyrek probably has a strong claim that Kevan's daughter or any women in his way for that matter besides Cersi. He is of age, male and has the right name.