Where do the loyalties of the Northern Houses lie

[Lord Vance II]

8 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

In return, Manderly and group of northern nobles that plotted Bolton downfall will provide army, fleet and finances for king to take Dragonstone and plan second siege of King's Landing. Stannis needs Iron Throne to defend the realm from White Walkers. Otherwise no one will listen to him.

Why on earth would Stannis ship back down south and go to his original plan when the whole reason he came north was because he decided he had to save the realm to take the throne? And why would the northern lords send all their resources south with winter setting in? We have no idea what the Others are waiting for and it would take months to organize, go south, take Dragonstone and then KL, and that's not taking Aegon's immanent attack into consideration. If the Others came while the northern army is a thousand miles away, it's all over. 

8 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

Lord Manderly, acting regent of the North and practically the ruler, will not agree to give up the power and hand to Stark bastard,

This might just be me being a huge Manderly fan, but I don't see him causing problems like this. And even if he did, Wylla marrying whoever ended up on top would satisfy him. 

9 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

And I'm not so sure they'd ought to be eager to be his regent: he's a fierce, wilfull kid that managed to survive with just one wildling woman and a wolf for the past two years.

The Black Wolf. 

9 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It's a hell of a chapter where you see a man sift through information quickly, make decisions, in a no BS manner in a manner we haven't yet had the priviledge to witness before. And he's actually cunning.

Sometimes I think Stannis is thinking exactly what his fans are when reading. It's about damn time he lived up to his reputation as the greatest commander in Westeros. He's been shit on the entire story and this is his last shot. If they do to him what they did in the show I'll burn the books. 

[estermonty python]

Okay I'll bite.

I imagine GRRM is a bit more interested in what happens AFTER alliances are made to defeat a common enemy than the fight with the enemy itself.  Let's pretend, for the sake of argument, that the Boltons are neatly defeated and no one important dies (or, ahem, stays dead).  Here's who we have

Jon:

Pros:

• Robb's chosen heir
• Capable military commander
•  Able to rule
• Has a wildling army loyal to him
• Likely support of Stannis, Melisandre, and most of the Kings Men and Queens Men
• Possible support of House Mormont and Glover (if they continue to follow Stannis and/or Galbart and Maege return)
• Has a direwolf

Cons:

• The only people who know he is Robb's chosen heir are either dead or imprisoned
• Will be viewed as an oathbreaker
• BASTARD
• Likely to be opposed by House Umber (though Jon could potentially win them over by a show of strength)
• He may refuse to take it

Sansa:

Pros:

• With Bran and Rickon presumed dead, she is the presumptive legal successor
• Has learned how to play the game of thrones better than any other Stark
• Likely support of the Vale (and the only one who could rouse the Vale to get involved)
• Likely has the loyalty of Littlefinger and his talents

Cons:

• Technically married to a Lannister
• Could be subject to misogynistic refusal to accept a female ruler of House Stark
• no direwolf
• Presently in hiding

Bran:

Pros

• Technically the pureblood heir to House Stark

Cons

• Is currently learning to be a tree wizard and everyone assumes he's dead

Arya:

Pros

• Already in Winterfell (sort of)

Cons

• Not actually Arya

Rickon:

Pros

• Presumed to be the legal head of House Stark by anyone who knows hes alive
• Support and patronage of House Manderly
• Likely to earn the support of Stannis, Jon, and Sansa
• Has a direwolf

Cons

• Toddler
• Will probably grow up to be a psychopath
• Lightning rod for squabbling among other Northern houses for influence over him
• The name of his wolf is synonymous with a long, rambling, involved story that ultimately leads nowhere

 

Conclusion:  All things being equal, Rickon in Winterfell with Manderly as regent would be the cleanest solution, and would be supported by Stannis and his army, Jon and his army, and Sansa and her army.  Though empowering Manderly would not be ideal for the other Northern houses, remember that basically all of the heads of the other houses are either dead, missing, or imprisoned.  The only other martial northman I can think of is Robett Glover, and he's in Manderly's camp.

Of course, all things are NOT equal - and GRRM detests clean solutions.  If Rickon weren't in the picture, there would be a serious split between Sansa supporters (pureblood, isn't allied with the wildlings) and Jon supporters (Robb's chosen heir, is a capable leader and military commander).   That seems a lot more interesting, so in my mind, there's no way Rickon doesn't die - probably right after Davos brings him to Winterfell.

Jon will want to consolidate his forces and push back North, and will need everyone to join him.   Others joining his cause seems...unlikely.  Thus, it will probably take a full scale invasion of the Others to win anyone to Jon's cause - and at that point, they'll be in need of a military commander.     

[Lord Vance II]

I don't think Sansa will factor into the leadership situation in the north. I think her role is to arrive at the wall at the 11th hour with 15,000 or so fresh troops.

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, Lord Vance II said:

Why on earth would Stannis ship back down south and go to his original plan when the whole reason he came north was because he decided he had to save the realm to take the throne? And why would the northern lords send all their resources south with winter setting in? We have no idea what the Others are waiting for and it would take months to organize, go south, take Dragonstone and then KL, and that's not taking Aegon's immanent attack into consideration. If the Others came while the northern army is a thousand miles away, it's all over. 

Agreed. Stannis plans to stay North, organize army, food, appoint castles at the Wall to men of his, and install himself in the Nightfort. His aim now is to secure the North so he can't be attacked in the back at the Wall.

[Philokles]

4 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Jon:

Pros:

• Robb's chosen heir
• Capable military commander
•  Able to rule
• Has a wildling army loyal to him
• Likely support of Stannis, Melisandre, and most of the Kings Men and Queens Men
• Possible support of House Mormont and Glover (if they continue to follow Stannis and/or Galbart and Maege return)
• Has a direwolf

Cons:

• The only people who know he is Robb's chosen heir are either dead or imprisoned
• Will be viewed as an oathbreaker
• BASTARD
• Likely to be opposed by House Umber (though Jon could potentially win them over by a show of strength)
• He may refuse to take it

Galbart Glover and Maege Mormont are neither dead nor imprisoned - further still Aly and the other Mormonts have had contact with their mother since the RW.

 

4 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Sansa:

Pros:

• With Bran and Rickon presumed dead, she is the presumptive legal successor
• Has learned how to play the game of thrones better than any other Stark
• Likely support of the Vale (and the only one who could rouse the Vale to get involved)
• Likely has the loyalty of Littlefinger and his talents

Cons:

• Technically married to a Lannister
• Could be subject to misogynistic refusal to accept a female ruler of House Stark
• no direwolf
• Presently in hiding

That is equally a con.

I find this pretty unlikely. Nobody has complained at other women ruling in their own rights if entitled to do so. We already know that women have led House Stark before, even if in name only.

Sansa is also likely to have been disinherited in Robb's will. 

 

4 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Bran:

Pros

• Technically the pureblood heir to House Stark

Cons

• Is currently learning to be a tree wizard and everyone assumes he's dead

Also has a direwolf. I doubt he is going to be in a tree for the rest of the series.

 

4 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Arya:

Pros

• Already in Winterfell (sort of)

Cons

• Not actually Arya

Any thoughts on the real Arya? There is no way Jeyne would last more than five minutes.

[estermonty python]

1 hour ago, Horse of Kent said:

Galbart Glover and Maege Mormont are neither dead nor imprisoned - further still Aly and the other Mormonts have had contact with their mother since the RW.

I should have added "or missing" - in fact I thought I did, but clearly not!

Alysane's mention of her mother being with 2 of her other siblings is indeed highly curious.  I'm not to the point yet where I necessarily believe it (she's talking to Asha, after all, and she really shouldn't trust her), but it certainly makes me excited for what's coming.

1 hour ago, Horse of Kent said:

That is equally a con.

I suppose, but I'd rather have Littlefinger as a friend than an enemy.

1 hour ago, Horse of Kent said:

I find this pretty unlikely. Nobody has complained at other women ruling in their own rights if entitled to do so. We already know that women have led House Stark before, even if in name only.

Well the entire Dance of Dragons was fought over not wanting to succumb to the rule of a woman, so I wouldn't be so sure.

What woman has ever led House Stark?  Lyanna is the only female statute in the crypts of Winterfell, isn't she?  The She-Wolves of Winterfell, in addition to not having been written yet, isn't about a woman actually taking over, I don't think - it's about the fight between a bunch of widows of dead Lord Starks arguing about which of the 10 Stark kids should succeed the dying Beron Stark.  If anything its the opposite: none of these wives/sisters/daughters were entitled to rule in their own right.

1 hour ago, Horse of Kent said:

Sansa is also likely to have been disinherited in Robb's will. 

Perhaps.  I'm not sure why that would have been necessary, since he would have legitimized Jon in the same document, but maybe.  I don't think it makes a difference though - either you follow Robb's will or you don't...

By the way, I hope this is true.  That would mean with Jon dead, Bran, Rickon, and Arya presumed dead, and Sansa disinherited, the current "Stark" who should be ruling Winterfell is...Nestor Royce!  No, seriously!  Benedict Royce, who married Ned's great-aunt (his grandfather's only sibling), was part of the cadet Royce branch.  Now THAT would be something that could incentivize the Vale to join the fray!

1 hour ago, Horse of Kent said:

Also has a direwolf. I doubt he is going to be in a tree for the rest of the series.

He does have a direwolf.  But I think there's a "no tree wizards" rule posted on the doors to Winterfell.  Right below "no girls allowed."

1 hour ago, Horse of Kent said:

Any thoughts on the real Arya? There is no way Jeyne would last more than five minutes.

It just seems like a lot of Stark kids would have to die before actual Arya would be relevant to the line of succession.  It would also be pretty sad if Arya's arc ended with her sitting in a goddamn castle holding court, which is the exact thing she swore she'd never do.

[Nevets]

7 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Jon:

Pros:

• Robb's chosen heir
• Capable military commander
•  Able to rule
• Has a wildling army loyal to him
• Likely support of Stannis, Melisandre, and most of the Kings Men and Queens Men
• Possible support of House Mormont and Glover (if they continue to follow Stannis and/or Galbart and Maege return)
• Has a direwolf

Cons:

• The only people who know he is Robb's chosen heir are either dead or imprisoned
• Will be viewed as an oathbreaker
• BASTARD
• Likely to be opposed by House Umber (though Jon could potentially win them over by a show of strength)
• He may refuse to take it.

Having a wildling army is likely to be as much a detriment as an asset.   They are widely perceived as the North's main enemy, so coming to power at the head of a wildling army could cause serious problems.

I expect that he will almost certainly refuse the position.  He is very focused on the threat from the Others.  Even if he actually dies and is resurrected, I expect him to remain with the NW.  The only way I see him taking political power is if it is necessary to fighting the Others.

7 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Sansa:

Pros:

• With Bran and Rickon presumed dead, she is the presumptive legal successor
• Has learned how to play the game of thrones better than any other Stark
• Likely support of the Vale (and the only one who could rouse the Vale to get involved)
• Likely has the loyalty of Littlefinger and his talents

Cons:

• Technically married to a Lannister
• Could be subject to misogynistic refusal to accept a female ruler of House Stark
• no direwolf
• Presently in hiding

Littlefinger's only loyalty is to Littlefinger.  She has his support, for the time being.  I expect she will discover his true nature, causing an estrangement at the least, and likely his elimination.  I wouldn't count on LF being much of a factor.

Her marriage to a Lannister has almost certainly resulted in her being disinherited in Robb's will.  And I'm not sure there is anything technical about it.  Getting out of it may not be as easy as many assume. 

7 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Bran:

Pros

• Technically the pureblood heir to House Stark

Cons

• Is currently learning to be a tree wizard and everyone assumes he's dead

He is also crippled and presumed to be unable to have children.  This is a big detriment.

The fact that he is learning wizardry means that he is likely to be uninterested in taking power, especially if someone else is available.

7 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Rickon:

Pros

• Presumed to be the legal head of House Stark by anyone who knows hes alive
• Support and patronage of House Manderly
• Likely to earn the support of Stannis, Jon, and Sansa
• Has a direwolf

Cons

• Toddler
• Will probably grow up to be a psychopath
• Lightning rod for squabbling among other Northern houses for influence over him
• The name of his wolf is synonymous with a long, rambling, involved story that ultimately leads nowhere

I see no reason at this point to believe that he will become a psychopath.  A bit wild, yes.  But psycho, not so much.

The bigger problem with Rickon is that I don't see him arriving south of the Wall anytime soon.  I think Davos will get involved in the Hardhome evacuation, and then head farther North, either in flight or something to do with Benjen.  A simple out and back to Skagos isn't going to happen, imo.

3 hours ago, Horse of Kent said:

Any thoughts on the real Arya? There is no way Jeyne would last more than five minutes.

Arya:

Pros:

If Jon is unavailable/uninterested due to NW duties, Sansa is disqualified, and Bran and Rickon are believed (or really) dead, unavailable or uninterested, Arya could easily be the last Stark standing.  This is especially true if she shows up before Bran or Rickon make an appearance.

Cons:

she is currently in Braavos and shows no signs of leaving soon (although I expect that to change)

She currently has no direwolf.

Proving her identity could be difficult.  She has been in hiding for about 2 years and most of those who could identify her are dead.

1 hour ago, estermonty python said:

It just seems like a lot of Stark kids would have to die before actual Arya would be relevant to the line of succession.  It would also be pretty sad if Arya's arc ended with her sitting in a goddamn castle holding court, which is the exact thing she swore she'd never do.

She could easily be relevant if nobody else is available.  Sitting in a castle could be her bittersweet ending .  Also, she hasn't really grown up yet.  Her interests could potentially change.  And remember her mother's family's words; "Family, Duty, Honor."

[Philokles]

1 hour ago, estermonty python said:

Well the entire Dance of Dragons was fought over not wanting to succumb to the rule of a woman, so I wouldn't be so sure.

What woman has ever led House Stark?  Lyanna is the only female statute in the crypts of Winterfell, isn't she?  The She-Wolves of Winterfell, in addition to not having been written yet, isn't about a woman actually taking over, I don't think - it's about the fight between a bunch of widows of dead Lord Starks arguing about which of the 10 Stark kids should succeed the dying Beron Stark.  If anything its the opposite: none of these wives/sisters/daughters were entitled to rule in their own right.

I meant that if there were no male Stark alternatives the North would be fine with a woman making the decisions. They were allowed to sort out the succession at the time of the She-Wolves of Winterfell despite having no entitlement, so women calling the shots is not so alien to Northerners. 

The Dance of Dragons was significantly more complicated than just not wanting to be ruled by a woman. Some interpretations make Rhaenyra the rightful ruler, others Aegon.

 

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Perhaps.  I'm not sure why that would have been necessary, since he would have legitimized Jon in the same document, but maybe.  I don't think it makes a difference though - either you follow Robb's will or you don't...

Not necessarily - does a legitimised male bastard slot into the line of succession where a true-born male of the same age would be, after all true-born sons but before daughters, or after all true-born children?

 

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By the way, I hope this is true.  That would mean with Jon dead, Bran, Rickon, and Arya presumed dead, and Sansa disinherited, the current "Stark" who should be ruling Winterfell is...Nestor Royce!  No, seriously!  Benedict Royce, who married Ned's great-aunt (his grandfather's only sibling), was part of the cadet Royce branch.  Now THAT would be something that could incentivize the Vale to join the fray!

If Bran and Rickon are believed to be dead then they probably would just not have been mentioned in the will, so their previous position would possibly remain the same. It depends on whether Jon was legitimised and made heir or just legitimised with the assumption that would make him heir anyway.

There is also a difference between Bran and Rickon, who Robb 'knew' were dead, and Arya - who Robb thought most likely was. When discussing who to name as heir with Cat, he still holds out hope that Arya might return, so who knows if a clause references that possibility. If nothing else, Robb would have pleased his mother if he made it clear that a trueborn Stark comes ahead of Jon, should such a situation arise.

 

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It just seems like a lot of Stark kids would have to die before actual Arya would be relevant to the line of succession.  It would also be pretty sad if Arya's arc ended with her sitting in a goddamn castle holding court, which is the exact thing she swore she'd never do.

It is unlikely at this stage, but the Iron Bank could become a potentially influential backer and the exact contents of Robb's will is still unknown. I'd say that Arya primarily wants to be her own woman. When speaking to Ned she asks if she can become a King's councillor which would involve a lot of sitting around holding court.

[Protagoras]

As I have said in other threads, I see a fight between anti-Bolton factions pretty much as given and that my main problem with GNC is the contacts between all those people. More likely, the people scheming have different agendas which involves different end games and most likely different Starks and they are unaware which people who work for the same goal and knows very little apart from that everyone hates the Freys and Bolton (sort of - I think Lady Dustin is on the fence).

In addition to this, as Lord Varys said, we have different willingness to take risks with the mountain clans very willing and with many northern lords less willing.

[Doran the Dreamer]

@estermonty python

Very nice synthesis! I think we can discount Arya and Bran immediately. Too many northsmen know fake-arya to be a fake, and the odds of real Arya or Bran showing up are slim.

Rickon and Jon have the best claims. Sansa can only win with southern support (the Vale, possibly the Tullys or even Aegon).

I've thought about which house might side with who.

Rickon's side:

-the Manderlys. He would probably be regent under Rickon's rule

-the Umbers. I believe they have been allied with the Manderlys for a long time.

-Robett Glover. Also an ally of the Manderlys

Jon's side:

-the Karstarks, under leadership of Alys Karstark. (All men of Arnolf's line are imprisoned)

-the Reeds. Howland knows about Jon's parentage and possibly about Robb's will (if Maege and Galbart reached him)

-the Mormonts. Maege knows about Robb's will. Since it's said she has two daughters with her, it's likely all her daughters know it.

-Galbart Glover. Knows about Robb's will.

I believe there are two Northern conspiracies who don't communicate with each other: those who will eventually side with Rickon and those who will side with Jon (minus the Karstarks).

I don't think there are any other houses that can play a big role. The other Northern houses are either anti-Stark altogether and will likely be defeated (Bolton, Dustin, Ryswell), have lost too many men (Cerwyn, Tallhart, Hornwood) or are too small to make a difference (Flint, Slate, Locke ...).

By the way, what makes you say Robett Glover is the only martial northsman?

[Lord Varys]

On 30.12.2016 at 3:04 AM, Ethelarion said:

I have been pondering on this question the entire day. Do we see a confrontation/war coming in the anti-Bolton camp? Could you see Stannis warring with Rickon? Or Jon and Rickon fighting each other for te King of the North?

I don't see any of that, at least not if Stannis survives and (sort of) wins the coming battle(s) near Winterfell. Lord Wyman certainly must have a plan to contact Stannis and tell him the truth about Bran and Rickon (and Davos' mission). And once people know that Ned's sons are still alive, things will come around. People will continue to ignore Brandon the Cripple and focus on Rickon instead - that is, unless Bran doesn't reveal himself and his powers by speaking through the weirwoods - but even then, he would be an old god/greenseer, not a lord or king).

Robb's will is also most likely considered insignificant due to the fact that (1) Robb only named Jon Snow is heir because his brothers were presumed dead, (2) Jon Snow actually isn't Ned Stark's son and Robb Stark's half-brother, and Howland Reed knows that, (3) Jon Snow is not likely to have any intention to usurp the place of Bran, Rickon (or even Sansa or Arya) regardless what Robb's last will declares.

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I feel the Others are such a tangible threat at this point I think they might force the North to rally together before actually being allies. But you never really know what could happen. Rickon could die on Skagos, not even be there or be long Lord of Winterfel, declaring for Stannis with Wyman as his regent, all before Jon is even resurrected or in any position to March south. Stannis could fall in the Battle of Winterfell.

Rickon certainly could die. But I doubt that is going to happen in the near future. George has just decided to reintroduce him and Davos' mission on Skagos is most likely not going to be just a side story to kill time. Rickon and many other characters certainly could die in the fight against the Others or at a later point in winter but prior to that this whole plot will play a significant role.

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So basically the two points I would like to discuss next:
- Will the anti-Bolton faction fight among themselves: I don't really see Stannis vs. Jon happen, Rickon vs. Jon also seems unlikely. 

Agreed.

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- Wil Winterfel be under Bolton rule when Jon marches south, or already taken by Stannis/Manderly etc.With all the plays going on I don't really see Roose Bolton holding on to Winterfell for another two months or something, while Jon will likely take something like that to get there if his resurrection takes some time. He might need to face Boltons at the Dreadfort, though.

Considering that Jon is dead right now I don't think he will march anywhere in the near future. He might no longer have an army to do so when he returns from the dead, and neither might there be such a need because the news of Stannis' victory (or whatever else happened at Winterfell) will be known at the Wall. In any case, it is very likely that the political situation in the North will have changed quite dramatically when Jon Snow opens his eyes again.

Tyrion didn't die on the Blackwater yet when he left his bed the political landscape had also changed quite dramatically. Things in the North are much more complicated right now.

The other thing is that Jon isn't really in the position to lay claim to anything. He is the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. Even if that changes after his resurrection those changes won't make him suddenly a pretender to Winterfell or the Iron Throne. The fact that you don't leave the NW is deeply ingrained into the culture.

On 30.12.2016 at 4:25 AM, sweetsunray said:

So, I don't see Stannis making decisions that rock the boat, unless he has a knife held against his throat, and even then only some. Besides, he wants Jon and make him a Stark in name. I don't think he'll be the one who'll have the honor to do that. He'll be happy with Rickon Stark, although it means he'll need to pick a regent.

There is no need for a regent. If Stannis doesn't intend to leave the North in winter he could make Rickon Stark his ward, betrothing him to Shireen, and continue ruling the North directly as king. While the King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men is in the North there is no need for another government in Winterfell. Especially not while the castle is a ruin.

This kind of direct control is much more in-character for a man like Stannis than sharing power. Especially not if Stannis actually leaves Winterfell after his victory to finally take possession of the Nightfort. The coming war is with the Others and he cannot lead that from Winterfell.

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Jon would never usurp his brothers' rights. Even if Robb's will were to come out while Rickon is found and at WF, I don't see Jon doing that. However, I can see Umbers, Manderly and others butt heads over the regency, in a manner similar as we saw them compete with Luwin and Bran over who woudl be heir of Hornwood and who might make her a good husband.

If Stannis lives, he will end such squabbles pretty quickly. The Northmen will become part of his councils but he is not going to share power with them.

And Lord Wyman is not likely to survive his stay at Winterfell. He cannot ride, and he has been severely injured by Hosteen Frey. Even if the wound isn't life-threatening by itself it could fester and kill him quickly enough. Not to mention that Roose and Ramsay could easily enough see to it that the fat man is killed if things go awry.

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I do think Rickon will be retrieved, that he will be returned to WF and that after Stannis took it (think of the direwolves scene threatening a Lannister into "retreat"). And I'm not so sure they'd ought to be eager to be his regent: he's a fierce, wilfull kid that managed to survive with just one wildling woman and a wolf for the past two years. I don't think giving him a stamp to press on papers or sweetened milk would keep that kid entertained.

Rickon is not likely to be returned quickly to Winterfell. Not if there is something to this whole Skagos plot. If Rickon was supposed to play a role in the very near future at Winterfell he would have been in White Harbor, not on Skagos. Davos might need three chapters alone to find Rickon, and another two to get off the island.

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He'll stay in play long enough for the to Twins fall (think the Lord of the Crossing game in the godswood) and the news of his survival and presence at WF having reached far enough to onset attempts from the other Starks to return to WF and rally around him (the direwolf scene again where it's Rickon who opens the door to the hall and brings 3 wolves into the hall, with the sun shining, and Rickon running with the wolves happy as a baby). But then something happens to him. It doesn't even have to be murder, assassination. He might get sick or he falls. Rickon is the Stark plot character to return wolves and Starks back to WF. But after that I think he'll have no more plot-use other than making room. So, in that sense there will never even be a Jon vs Rickon imo. 

That would be a rather pointless plot. Rickon could still die, but since he is the last male Stark who can hope to continue the male line and have children of his own body (even if Bran isn't going to become a tree, he won't be able to father children). I don't think House Stark is going to extinguished in this series. This doesn't mean Rickon is going to become an important or crucial character by himself (he clearly isn't) but he could still survive the books and inherit Winterfell in the end.

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Actually I think Roose Bolton will lose the Dreadfort. The news of it being taken by wildlings/ironborn will make him rush towards the Dreafort to capture it back, meanwhile believing Stannis dead. So, he leaves WF with a minimal garrison, a force that can be easily overtaken through a ruse and someone inside openeing a door, followed by a pursuit by Stannis to crush Roose between the walls of the Dreadfort and Stannis's army. I think he'll use the plan that the Boltons hoped to use against him. They had the Karstarks propose to Stannis to take the Dreadfort, in the hope that Stannis woudl be crushed between the castle's wall and Roose's army coming from behind him at which point the Karstarks would turn on Stannis. I think we'll see that happening to Roose instead. 

That doesn't sound like something Roose would do. The man isn't stupid. He might be able to flee Winterfell and evade capture if things turn against him but he'll lose the North in the process.

In general: The idea that Stannis is going down south now makes no sense. He could command that some of his sellswords (if he gets any) attack the lands down south and perhaps even the navy of the Sealord will intervene on his behalf, but that's it.

And even that would be stupid considering that they might use the help of the people in the south if the situation at the Wall becomes dire.

[Wm Portnoy]

A lot of people in the north are going to be mad at Jon if the Pink Letter is accurate.  Many will not be happy with noble lands being given off to the wildlings.  Stannis has the support of the mountain families for the moment. 

Lady Dustin has her own game.  I don't think she supports the Starks.  I can see her support for Roose but Ramsay is in her crosshairs.  She's not going to stand by and let Ramsay become lord over her.  I don't doubt that she supports the Boltons for the moment but that will change if Roose dies. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 minutes ago, Wm Portnoy said:

A lot of people in the north are going to be mad at Jon if the Pink Letter is accurate.  Many will not be happy with noble lands being given off to the wildlings.  Stannis has the support of the mountain families for the moment. 

Lady Dustin has her own game.  I don't think she supports the Starks.  I can see her support for Roose but Ramsay is in her crosshairs.  She's not going to stand by and let Ramsay become lord over her.  I don't doubt that she supports the Boltons for the moment but that will change if Roose dies. 

That's why in the books we may see Rickon play Sansa's Northern role from the Show. Meaning he will be the figurehead Stark around which Jon rallies the North. Meaning Jon does not claim Winterfell, but instead serves as general on behalf of his brother Rickon Stark. That will get the Manderlys behind him, and all the loyalist Northern lords, without usurping Rickon's birthright.

There is no way Sansa will make it North with a Vale army in time for the Battle of Winterfell, so it goes without saying that her role in the Northern plot is non-existent at this point in time. And yet Jon has to be ressurrected, Rickon's return is imminent and the Battle of Winterfell is upon us.

 

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Wm Portnoy said:

A lot of people in the north are going to be mad at Jon if the Pink Letter is accurate.  Many will not be happy with noble lands being given off to the wildlings.  Stannis has the support of the mountain families for the moment. 

Lady Dustin has her own game.  I don't think she supports the Starks.  I can see her support for Roose but Ramsay is in her crosshairs.  She's not going to stand by and let Ramsay become lord over her.  I don't doubt that she supports the Boltons for the moment but that will change if Roose dies. 

Ramsay won't last for a minute if Roose were to die. The man is crazy sadist. People might fear to back stab or betray him but they can abandon him. And they will by the hundreds if his father ended up dead. Ramsay doesn't inspire any loyalty.

And Lady Barbrey is right now one of the most powerful people in the North and certainly the most powerful person at Winterfell after Roose. Roose commands his own troops and the Freys (who are leaving the castle right now) and Barbrey has her own Barrowton men as well as the Ryswell men. Lord Wyman and others brought much smaller contingents.

If Barbrey wanted Ramsay's head after his father died she most certainly would get it, one way or another. But I don't actually believe Roose will predecease Ramsay, especially not if he actually leads a Bolton army against Stannis. If that's the case I think Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter before he left Winterfell, and Roose encouraged him to do so just as he had him write those earlier intimidating letters to Asha and Jon.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Well, the 7 days of bloody battle part seems too specific to be a random fabrication. As has been suggested before, with Stannis being encamped 3 days from Winterfell, a 3 day ride there, a day of pitched battle, and a 3 day return trip would give you the 7 days referred to. Especially if the journey involved skirmishes all along the way, such as the initial engagement with Mors Umber on day one, the battle against the Freys three days later, and then a series of engagements with Ramsay's forces who obtained the magic sword thereafter.

So no, I don't think Ramsay wrote the letter before the Battle. I think it was written in the Battle's aftermath.

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, the 7 days of bloody battle part seems too specific to be a random fabrication. As has been suggested before, with Stannis being encamped 3 days from Winterfell, a 3 day ride there, a day of pitched battle, and a 3 day return trip would give you the 7 days referred to. Especially if the journey involved skirmishes all along the way, such as the initial engagement with Mors Umber on day one, the battle against the Freys three days later, and then a series of engagements with Ramsay's forces who obtained the magic sword thereafter.

So no, I don't think Ramsay wrote the letter before the Battle. I think it was written in the Battle's aftermath.

But that's actually a weird interpretation of the letter. A seven days battle is only a seven days battle if it lasted seven days, not six days for traveling and one day for the battle. The letter actually states that there was a battle that lasted for seven days. The letter doesn't explain where exactly the battle took place and Jon has no knowledge about Stannis being stuck in the snow three days away from Winterfell.

And nobody is saying Ramsay picked seven days there randomly. The Andals worship seven gods, it is a pretty catchy number to use in Westeros. One could even say that Ramsay claiming there was a seven day battle is an indication that this is a fabrication - after all, if you are the victor of a seven day battle you look a lot much more like a bad ass than if you say something else. Also keep in mind that the picture Ramsay paints suggests that he participated in that battle and lived - and if there is something that's rather unlikely in the books then that Ramsay is going to live through that battle if he actually participates in it. He is neither a proven commander or general nor a particular well-trained fighter. If he chanced upon Clayton Suggs or Richard Horpe in the battle he wouldn't last a minute. Not to mention all those clansmen who expect to die in winter and only want to bathe in Bolton blood before they die. We can reasonably expect that many of the clansmen will attack the enemy in a suicidal fashion, and Roderick Dustin proved during the Dance how effective that can be. The Freys and Ramsay's own men are not likely willing (or eager) to sacrifice their lives to kill Stannis. But many of Stannis' men are willing and eager to die to kill Boltons.

And we should also keep in mind that Theon is there with Stannis' army. If anybody deserves to kill Ramsay to finally defeat him and regain whatever remains of his former self it is Theon. And I'd not be surprised one bit if that's what happens during the battle. Ramsay is going to end up at Theon's mercy, and Theon will enjoy himself.

Ramsay also mentions nothing about the Manderlys and Freys in the letter. The Freys were the ones that chanced into the Umbers, one would assume that Hosteen later took his dealing with them (or trying to deal with them). They killed Aenys Frey, after all. Roose and Ramsay have no reason involve themselves in that affair if they sent out their own men after the Manderlys and Freys only some time later.

In fact, if Mors is smart he has hiding places prepared for his lads under the snow. If the weather remains as it is there is a pretty good chance that nobody is going to find them, and since the Boltons know that they aren't the main enemy they can be pretty much ignored for the time being.

Their presence near Winterfell could come in handy later on when Stannis' men are preparing to retake the castle.

Presumably the Umber situation and Aenys Frey's death as well as Jeyne's and Theon's escaped stalled the military campaign. Roose sent out the Freys and Manderlys before Jeyne's escape. Shortly thereafter the Bolton men looking for Jeyne and Theon would have left the castle, too, interacting with the Freys and possibly the Manderlys as well (although they might not have cared, heading off to the village).

Ramsay certainly would have been obsessed with catching Jeyne and Theon as quickly as possible, and that would have lasted for quite some time. We know he didn't find them but since he knows about Mance and his connection to Jon we can be reasonably sure that he caught at least one spearwife alive (possibly more, perhaps even Mance himself). He would have had fun with that woman until she broke and talked, presumably after she lost a lot skin. Then both he (and Roose) would have been very angry at Jon Snow, intending to get back at him as quickly as possible. Why not write an intimidating letter to him messing with his head and making it clear to him that they would eventually come for him, too. They intend to crush and kill Stannis, so there is no reason for them not to anticipate the outcome of the battle in their letter. That is part of psychological warfare. You don't even have to fight your enemy if you convince him that you have already won.

And that's clearly part of Ramsay's intention there. He wants to frighten and intimidate Jon just as he did with his previous letters. The Pink Letter is just less refined and much more angry because Jon got to Ramsay first with the Arya abduction thing.

[Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom]

The North has a long memory, they won't forget the Red Wedding and just bow to the Boltons. They are playing a role there, pretending they are backing up the Boltons, but once the Lannisters are out of the frame, the Boltons are doomed. Many houses lost family members and soldiers in the Red Wedding, it is not something you easily forget and we know House Bolton was involved in this betrayal.

 

The Umbers are supporting against the Boltons, both Crowsfood and Whoresbane are doing their thing and they have all set up. Barbrey Dustin already said that besides she is resentful with Ned, she had a soft spot for Brandon, with that, I am quite sure she is not with the Boltons. The Manderlys have an eternal debt with House Stark. The Glovers and the Mormonts are also helping. Only the Karstarks are actually helpíng the Boltons and we know what happened to them, all of the are captured, Cregan Karstark is in an ice cell and Arnolf, Arthor and his sons are with Stannis, all prisoners. I don't know about the Ryswells, but I am quite sure they will jump to the Stark side once the Boltons start to lose. And the Moutain Clans loved Ned, they even called him The Ned.

[Clegane'sPup]

20 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, the 7 days of bloody battle part seems too specific to be a random fabrication. As has been suggested before, with Stannis being encamped 3 days from Winterfell, a 3 day ride there, a day of pitched battle, and a 3 day return trip would give you the 7 days referred to. Especially if the journey involved skirmishes all along the way, such as the initial engagement with Mors Umber on day one, the battle against the Freys three days later, and then a series of engagements with Ramsay's forces who obtained the magic sword thereafter.

So no, I don't think Ramsay wrote the letter before the Battle. I think it was written in the Battle's aftermath.

 

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But that's actually a weird interpretation of the letter. A seven days battle is only a seven days battle if it lasted seven days, not six days for traveling and one day for the battle. The letter actually states that there was a battle that lasted for seven days. The letter doesn't explain where exactly the battle took place and Jon has no knowledge about Stannis being stuck in the snow three days away from Winterfell.

You both reminded of something. At the time that Roose receives the raven saying Stannis’ host lies not three days from here (WF) had Stannis already been told of the Karstark betrayal?  The Sacrifice chapter is when Tycho shows up at Stannis’ camp with the letter Jon had given him revealing that Karstark is working with Bolton.

The reason I ask is because I am wondering if Stannis could have used Karstark’s ravens to send that message about being “not three days ride” from WF?

When Tycho rolled up into Stannis’ camp he was in the company of Mors and he knew who Asha is. He also tells her he has a gift which turns out to be the almost unrecognizable Theon. Tycho says he had hoped to find Stannis outside the walls of WF but instead found Mors who had possession of Theon and Jeyne. The part that really confudicates me is Mors seemed to know how to get Tycho to Stannis’ location.

Backing up a bit Roose had received a raven with a message of Stannis’ location. The death of the Walder kid stirred up an already tense situation and the confusion led to the time being right to get fArya outta WF.

Martin does not follow a chronological order. A pet peeve of mine. So, when I read in the Theon DwD chapter that was moved to WoW I gotta ask myself some questions about the timeframe.

WoW spoiler

Spoiler

What he [Mors] might have said or done next Theon never learned, for that was when the boy ran up, clutching a spear and shouting that the portcullis on Winterfell's main gate was rising.

Going back to the 7 days of battle as mentioned in the pink/bastard letter ARGH ARGH ARGH my most favorite topic besides BR is this frekking letter. Originally my obsession was who is Jon Snow's mother. Now its who wrote this letter and why. I am still firm in my opinion that the letter pink/bastard letter was tampered with in some manner.

 

[finger]

There's a detail I don't think is been taken into account properly. Most northern families had relatives taken hostages by the Freys when the Red Wedding. Even though Jamie had instructed the Frey heir to release them, it's not known where many of those hostages are at the time of the Battle of the Ice. They have to feign friendship, but I don't think there's much love for the Freys in the North. Rather, if a Northerman had the chance to make a Frey disappear without a clue or a witness, I'd say he'll take it, just in case.

And I can't forget the fear in Roose Bolton's eyes. He's seeing it coming.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

You both reminded of something. At the time that Roose receives the raven saying Stannis’ host lies not three days from here (WF) had Stannis already been told of the Karstark betrayal?  The Sacrifice chapter is when Tycho shows up at Stannis’ camp with the letter Jon had given him revealing that Karstark is working with Bolton.

The reason I ask is because I am wondering if Stannis could have used Karstark’s ravens to send that message about being “not three days ride” from WF?

No, that's a message Arnolf seems to have sent earlier on.

Stannis is told about the Karstark betrayal both by Tycho Nestoris and Theon (who met and saw Arnolf at the Dreadfort).

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

When Tycho rolled up into Stannis’ camp he was in the company of Mors and he knew who Asha is. He also tells her he has a gift which turns out to be the almost unrecognizable Theon. Tycho says he had hoped to find Stannis outside the walls of WF but instead found Mors who had possession of Theon and Jeyne. The part that really confudicates me is Mors seemed to know how to get Tycho to Stannis’ location.

Mors remained behind near Winterfell. He didn't accompany Theon, Jeyne, and Tycho to Stannis. And Tycho knew Asha because he was in the company of her men. The ones he bought free from Lady Glover at Deepwood Motte, Botley and Qarl the Maid among them.

My impression is that Tycho was told where Stannis was by Theon who saw the map the maester sent to Roose via raven. Theon grew up around Winterfell and most likely had visited that village in the past, being able to direct the party to Stannis' location.