Where do the loyalties of the Northern Houses lie

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

@Free Northman Reborn

'The Winds of Winter' should focus on winter and the Others, and not so much on political troubles. The end of the book should either deal with the fall of the Wall or with the Others finally making their move and attack the Wall.

The book titles have long since outraced the storyline. Dance with Dragons certainly didn't involve any Dragons at war with each other. That is only happening in Winds at the earliest. If not Dream of Spring.

 

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

The book titles have long since outraced the storyline. Dance with Dragons certainly didn't involve any Dragons at war with each other. That is only happening in Winds at the earliest. If not Dream of Spring.

Still, if the book has that title we should expect winter and the Others to play a major role in it.

In any case, I see no reason why the Starks should be restored to Winterfell before the Others are dealt with. The castle is a ruin and there is no time to rebuild it in winter.

If Winterfell is sort of symbol of House Stark - as Bran sees it in his last ACoK chapter - then I'd only expect the Starks to properly reclaim and rebuild it after the story is over. When the Starks have weathered the storm they can go back home, and not before.

The Others are the Big Bad in this story. They should be much more evil and effective than any mortal enemy - Theon, Boltons, and Euron included - which means we should expect the Starks losing their castle again if they regained it before the attack of the Others.

[Free Northman Reborn]

50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Still, if the book has that title we should expect winter and the Others to play a major role in it.

In any case, I see no reason why the Starks should be restored to Winterfell before the Others are dealt with. The castle is a ruin and there is no time to rebuild it in winter.

If Winterfell is sort of symbol of House Stark - as Bran sees it in his last ACoK chapter - then I'd only expect the Starks to properly reclaim and rebuild it after the story is over. When the Starks have weathered the storm they can go back home, and not before.

The Others are the Big Bad in this story. They should be much more evil and effective than any mortal enemy - Theon, Boltons, and Euron included - which means we should expect the Starks losing their castle again if they regained it before the attack of the Others.

Well I have to say that is rather strange logic. Just because Winterfell fell to Theon and Ramsay does not necessitate that it has to fall to the Others as well. And neither does the fact that the Others eventually do not capture Winterfell make them less of a threat to Westeros than the Boltons. That's not serious reasoning on your part, surely?

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well I have to say that is rather strange logic. Just because Winterfell fell to Theon and Ramsay does not necessitate that it has to fall to the Others as well. And neither does the fact that the Others eventually do not capture Winterfell make them less of a threat to Westeros than the Boltons. That's not serious reasoning on your part, surely?

It is because the Hobbits also didn't return to and secure the Shire before they dealt with the Ring. This story has a structure and the circle will be complete in the end, not before the grand finale.

We expect the Starks to return to and restore Winterfell at the very end of the story. At least one of them will live to return to Winterfell, perhaps even more than one.

If the Starks could resist the Others in the middle of winter from a ruined castle then they simply won't be that big a threat.

The fight against the Others will begin earlier in the North than it is going to begin in the South. Many people up there are already aware that the Others are real, and that number is going to increase. That in itself will make it no priority formally install lords or kings in certain seats.

Aegon might get a formal coronation in KL, with all the pomp and circumstance the wealthy can muster, even in winter. But that's only because he is most likely going to take possession of the Iron Throne very soon. And depending when exactly Dany arrives she might no longer care about ceremonies if she is already aware of the threat the Others pose. Stannis already understands that the political question is less important than the survival of mankind.

In addition, there is the fact that Winterfell is rather close to the Wall. If the Wall falls then the North is likely to suffer first, just as Sauron first struck against Gondor rather than, say, Lindon or the Shire.

I'm not saying Winterfell has to be controlled by the Others, I'm just inclined to believe it will be abandoned again after the Boltons are defeated because the battle everybody is preparing for is going to take place at the Wall, not at Winterfell. And while the Wall still stands they will try to stop the Others there, not at Winterfell. If the Wall falls everything is going to hell. Even while Winterfell was an intact and strong castle it was joke in comparison to the strength and power of the Wall. Whoever survives the fall of the Wall will flee down south as far as they can.

The idea that anybody is going to spend non-existing resources to rebuild Winterfell in the middle of winter when actually every able-bodied man in the North should be at the Wall helping the people there to keep the Others and wights back makes little sense. Why would Stannis or Jon do something like that? Nobody would.

[estermonty python]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a scenario that is cramming to much into too short a time frame. If Rickon were too show up on the mainland early on in TWoW we would have gone to Skagos with Davos in ADwD. George teased at the island for a reason - he wants us to look forward to its introduction in the next book.

The situation at the Wall and the fate of Stannis will be long resolved by the time Davos comes back from Skagos. And I'd not even even assume or expect that they intend to go back to White Harbor. If Robett Glover and perhaps even Wyman's cousin Ser Marlon (who isn't mentioned as being at Winterfell) were to accompany Davos they might have instruction to deliver Rickon to Eastwatch rather than White Harbor. Lord Wyman presumably intends to team up with Stannis at Winterfell and should they prevail there one assumes they would all return to the Wall.

But I don't expect a 'Lord Rickon' plot line to become important in the story simply because I think winter and the Others will overshadow all that by the time Rickon finally arrives. Perhaps Rickon is going to become nominally the new Lord of Winterfell but that's not going to resolve any problems they might have at this point.

I don't think Jon is ever going to be in a good position to actually challenge the claims of other Stark claimants. He is a bastard with an unknown mother and he has joined the NW. That's a fact. Regardless how his resurrection turns out there will be a lot of people in the North who will neither believe the story of his death nor the story of his resurrection should he come back from the dead. They will see this as bad attempt to wiggle out of his vows (assuming he is even making a claim). 

Beric was resurrected multiple times in the Riverlands yet this didn't lead to a broad R'hllor movement or a public and widespread declaration that death doesn't have to be the end in all cases. Only the people who witnessed Beric's and Cat's resurrection (and spent time in their presence) come to believe the story, and those people aren't all that much as of yet. Considering the remoteness of the Wall it is very unlikely that anybody in the North is going to believe the story of Jon's resurrection while it is just hearsay and rumor.

And if Jon's true heritage were to be revealed things would even get more complicated. Lyanna Stark's son by Rhaegar Targaryen has a weaker claim to Winterfell than Eddard Stark's bastard son because he is only a Stark through the female line. Robb's will might have disinherited Sansa Stark Lannister but it did legitimize Robb's 'non-existing' half-brother Jon Snow, not some cousin of his on the Targaryen side of the family tree.

If Jon repeatedly rejected Winterfell while he was still believing he was Ned's son it is out of the question, I think, that he would try to claim Winterfell and the North after he finally realized that he wasn't a Stark, after all.

And with Wyman's plotting and Theon in Stannis' hands we can expect the truth about Bran and Rickon to come out sooner rather than later.

I think it is eminently logical and correct that Jon's resurrection won't lead to a Christlike worship of the man, for all the reasons you state.  I don't at all see Jon trying to claim or win Winterfell for himself - it's just not in his character.  

The one thing I do suggest is that too little attention has been paid in this thread to the actual desires of the potential claimants to Winterfell - and the varying levels of information those claimants have.  

Jon believes Bran and Rickon to be dead, believes Sansa to be missing, and believes Arya to have just escaped from Ramsay's clutches at Winterfell.  As usual, he's wrong about 100% of that.  Regardless, the sensible conclusion is that Jon will believe Arya is the rightful Lady of Winterfell, and will fight to achieve that end.  What happens when Jon and "Arya" meet and he realizes its Jeyne and Arya is still missing (and likely dead, from his perspective)?  Beyond being crushed, I have no idea, and obviously a lot depends on when/if any of those other misconceptions are corrected.

Sansa believes Bran and Rickon are dead and Jon is still alive as LC.  I don't know that she has heard about Arya in Winterfell, but either way she should view herself as the rightful Lady of Winterfell.  Whatever game Littlefinger has her playing in the Vale, this MUST be the endgame - to have Sansa claim Winterfell.

Bran surely has bigger fish to fry, but at this point he must know he is technically the rightful Lord of Winterfell.  That doesn't mean he'll reveal himself as alive to anyone, but the fact that Sam knows Bran is alive north of the Wall could be important towards the end of the story.

Rickon is too young to know or want anything.  That said, imagine if Rickon stayed in hiding for a decade or so: he'd emerge even wilder than he is now, with little memory of his siblings, and rather inclined to take his place as the rightful Lord of Winterfell.  Not to be cold about it, but its good for everyone that Wyman discovered that Rickon is alive, because he needs to be brought into the fold if for no other reason than to prevent a future civil war.

Based on that analysis, and based on proximity, my best guess is that Jon will fight to install Arya in Winterfell, without knowing that the Arya he thinks he's fighting for isn't real.  He may very well reach that realization before Davos returns and before Sansa reveals herself in the Vale, which is the only scenario, in my mind, in which Jon would entertain "claiming" Winterfell for himself, as in that hypothetical he will believe all of his half-siblings to be dead.    

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

I think it is eminently logical and correct that Jon's resurrection won't lead to a Christlike worship of the man, for all the reasons you state.  I don't at all see Jon trying to claim or win Winterfell for himself - it's just not in his character.  

The one thing I do suggest is that too little attention has been paid in this thread to the actual desires of the potential claimants to Winterfell - and the varying levels of information those claimants have.  

Jon believes Bran and Rickon to be dead, believes Sansa to be missing, and believes Arya to have just escaped from Ramsay's clutches at Winterfell.  As usual, he's wrong about 100% of that.  Regardless, the sensible conclusion is that Jon will believe Arya is the rightful Lady of Winterfell, and will fight to achieve that end.  What happens when Jon and "Arya" meet and he realizes its Jeyne and Arya is still missing (and likely dead, from his perspective)?  Beyond being crushed, I have no idea, and obviously a lot depends on when/if any of those other misconceptions are corrected.

That is an interesting question. Many people have suggested Jon isn't going to see Jeyne upon her arrival at Winterfell because he will still be dead/in Ghost. That idea is not unlikely considering that there is certainly a plot reason as to why Theon convinced Jeyne to keep the truth about her identity a secret for the time being.

People have suggested that Jeyne will no longer be at Castle Black when Jon is himself again, accompanying Massey/Selyse to Braavos.

11 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

Sansa believes Bran and Rickon are dead and Jon is still alive as LC.  I don't know that she has heard about Arya in Winterfell, but either way she should view herself as the rightful Lady of Winterfell.  Whatever game Littlefinger has her playing in the Vale, this MUST be the endgame - to have Sansa claim Winterfell.

I honestly think this would be a boring endgame for Sansa. She has gotten entangled in big politics, not backwater Northern stuff. She is in a position where she could aim at controlling the Iron Throne by offering herself in marriage to a new king. The longer the Vale stays out of the war the greater the effect of those troops could be when they are finally deployed.

And if the Vale were to support Aegon or Daenerys or any other pretender fighting for the Iron Throne her restoration to Winterfell could easily enough be part of that deal. The idea that she has to fight for her claim to Winterfell against other (fake) Stark claimants makes little sense in that setting. The North couldn't withhold Winterfell from Queen Sansa Stark Targaryen, or even from Lady Sansa Stark Hardyng-Arryn who enjoys the favor of the Iron Throne.

11 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

Bran surely has bigger fish to fry, but at this point he must know he is technically the rightful Lord of Winterfell.  That doesn't mean he'll reveal himself as alive to anyone, but the fact that Sam knows Bran is alive north of the Wall could be important towards the end of the story.

The hints we have sort of suggest that Bran might reveal himself at the island near Stannis' village. Whether he will do so as Brandon Stark or merely as an 'old god' isn't clear. But I'm pretty sure Bran is long beyond mundane matters such as caring about the lordship of Winterfell. No greenseer would have such limited visions and interests.

11 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

Rickon is too young to know or want anything.  That said, imagine if Rickon stayed in hiding for a decade or so: he'd emerge even wilder than he is now, with little memory of his siblings, and rather inclined to take his place as the rightful Lord of Winterfell.  Not to be cold about it, but its good for everyone that Wyman discovered that Rickon is alive, because he needs to be brought into the fold if for no other reason than to prevent a future civil war.

An older Rickon would have been a very interesting character. He could even have become a POV. And I'm pretty sure George once wanted to give him a bigger role when he still thought the series would stretch over many years.

11 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

Based on that analysis, and based on proximity, my best guess is that Jon will fight to install Arya in Winterfell, without knowing that the Arya he thinks he's fighting for isn't real.  He may very well reach that realization before Davos returns and before Sansa reveals herself in the Vale, which is the only scenario, in my mind, in which Jon would entertain "claiming" Winterfell for himself, as in that hypothetical he will believe all of his half-siblings to be dead.    

I don't think Jon will care about continuing a war/campaign for Winterfell and the North. His war is with the Others, and unless Stannis is killed at Winterfell he won't have to make a claim of his own nor support the claim of another Stark pretender. I expect Jon to eventually succeed Stannis as the leader of the resistance/fight against the Others in the North but not in the near future.

My expectation is that the battle(s) near Winterfell and the conflict at the Wall will leave the North even weaker than before, and there will be different suggestions/ideas how to carry the war to the Others. If Stannis is still alive he will try to gain the initiative, and Jon, too. They have to find out what the Others plan and how they can stop their imminent attacks. As of yet they have done literally nothing in that field.

The Wall has to fall somehow, and presumably they should begin a search for the Horn of Winter now. After all, Jon knows that it wasn't destroyed.

[estermonty python]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Many people have suggested Jon isn't going to see Jeyne upon her arrival at Winterfell because he will still be dead/in Ghost. That idea is not unlikely considering that there is certainly a plot reason as to why Theon convinced Jeyne to keep the truth about her identity a secret for the time being.

People have suggested that Jeyne will no longer be at Castle Black when Jon is himself again, accompanying Massey/Selyse to Braavos.

I suppose it depends how long Jon is in Ghost.  I also confess I don't really see how even a resurrected Jon could leave Castle Black right now, as all his capable trusted men have been sent to garrison other castles (again, great job Jon).  Unless he wants to leave Ulmer and Satin in charge, I don't see how he can leave.  Clearly some other plot stuff has to happen first.

 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The North couldn't withhold Winterfell from Queen Sansa Stark Targaryen, or even from Lady Sansa Stark Hardyng-Arryn who enjoys the favor of the Iron Throne.

Interesting thought  I suppose I expected that Sansa would reveal herself and unite the Vale with the North and Riverlands to compel the IT to deal with them on favorable terms once the Lannisters were deposed.  This is a Sansa v. Rickon question, to be clear.  Sansa has geographic proximity and age on her side.  It would still leave Rickon as a potential problem as he gets older, based on his superior claim.  I can't help but wonder if Littlefinger doesn't try to remove that threat.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But I'm pretty sure Bran is long beyond mundane matters such as caring about the lordship of Winterfell. No greenseer would have such limited visions and interests.

Couldn't agree more.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Jon will care about continuing a war/campaign for Winterfell and the North. His war is with the Others, and unless Stannis is killed at Winterfell he won't have to make a claim of his own nor support the claim of another Stark pretender. I expect Jon to eventually succeed Stannis as the leader of the resistance/fight against the Others in the North but not in the near future.

I confess I can't imagine how to marry the medieval intrigue that dominated so much of the series with the impending battle with the Others that promises to dominate over everything.  Why devote 5 books to these power struggles if the ultimate message is "none of this shit matters"?  I don't have a good answer at this point.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, estermonty python said:

I suppose it depends how long Jon is in Ghost.  I also confess I don't really see how even a resurrected Jon could leave Castle Black right now, as all his capable trusted men have been sent to garrison other castles (again, great job Jon).  Unless he wants to leave Ulmer and Satin in charge, I don't see how he can leave.  Clearly some other plot stuff has to happen first.

Jon would only leave Castle Black for Winterfell if Stannis' death and defeat was confirmed and the Boltons remained in power. But then Stannis' army would have been defeated, too, making it essentially hopeless that Jon could retake Winterfell from the Boltons with a wildling army. Assuming the wildlings are still there upon his resurrection (some will stay, no doubt, but not all of them).

Quote

Interesting thought  I suppose I expected that Sansa would reveal herself and unite the Vale with the North and Riverlands to compel the IT to deal with them on favorable terms once the Lannisters were deposed.  This is a Sansa v. Rickon question, to be clear.  Sansa has geographic proximity and age on her side.  It would still leave Rickon as a potential problem as he gets older, based on his superior claim.  I can't help but wonder if Littlefinger doesn't try to remove that threat.

Well, I took the Winterfell plan from AFfC as a longterm plan for next spring. Littlefinger and Sansa are in no rush and it should be much easier to reclaim the North from Stannis or the Boltons if the new Lady of the Vale is challenging them with a huge army after a devastating winter is over. Marching north to war in winter doesn't make any sense, however.

And neither Littlefinger nor Sansa have any idea that Bran and Rickon are still alive. And they won't find out unless they actually go north - which they most likely won't. They have no reason to believe that acting quickly might be important.

The idea that Sansa and Littlefinger could have planned to create a sort of independent power bloc (the Vale, the Riverlands, and the North) to challenge the Lannister-Tyrell alliance made some sense back in AFfC. Sansa's big problem is that she stands accused of regicide, and that accusation is not just going to go away regardless whether Tommen is around or not.

But with Aegon (and eventually Daenerys) the way to Winterfell might go through the Iron Throne. Especially since that could also help with the other goal - vengeance. Sansa being Lady of Winterfell is going to help her with getting back at Cersei. In fact, if she returned back North without dealing with her enemies in the South they might eventually come for her.

Thus it makes a lot of sense to assume that Sansa and Littlefinger would be more than tempted to enter into the new civil war on Aegon's side. Especially since this could also get Sansa very close to the Iron Throne.

Quote

I confess I can't imagine how to marry the medieval intrigue that dominated so much of the series with the impending battle with the Others that promises to dominate over everything.  Why devote 5 books to these power struggles if the ultimate message is "none of this shit matters"?  I don't have a good answer at this point.

Well, what information we have strongly suggests that there will be a lot of civil war and plotting going on in the South. In the North open conflict should end with the Stannis-Bolton fights. But afterwards they will have to deal with famine, cold, and winter, and quite likely different ideas and approaches how to deal with the Others. In their minds and politics the Others will become the top priority but the fact that Stannis (a doomed pretender) is leading this enterprise will make it difficult/impossible for them to get the message across to the people south of the Neck.

There has to be a lot of material really building up the threat of the Others or else they will be some sort of weird epilogue. We have to understand who they are, what they want, how they operate, what they are doing, why they are dangerous and terrible. We have to see this winter they are bringing, and we also have to get the feeling of hopelessness that comes with it. In such a setting there won't be much space for a game of thrones, at least not for a clean game and conventional warfare.

[Free Northman Reborn]

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon would only leave Castle Black for Winterfell if Stannis' death and defeat was confirmed and the Boltons remained in power. But then Stannis' army would have been defeated, too, making it essentially hopeless that Jon could retake Winterfell from the Boltons with a wildling army. Assuming the wildlings are still there upon his resurrection (some will stay, no doubt, but not all of them).

Well, I took the Winterfell plan from AFfC as a longterm plan for next spring. Littlefinger and Sansa are in no rush and it should be much easier to reclaim the North from Stannis or the Boltons if the new Lady of the Vale is challenging them with a huge army after a devastating winter is over. Marching north to war in winter doesn't make any sense, however.

And neither Littlefinger nor Sansa have any idea that Bran and Rickon are still alive. And they won't find out unless they actually go north - which they most likely won't. They have no reason to believe that acting quickly might be important.

The idea that Sansa and Littlefinger could have planned to create a sort of independent power bloc (the Vale, the Riverlands, and the North) to challenge the Lannister-Tyrell alliance made some sense back in AFfC. Sansa's big problem is that she stands accused of regicide, and that accusation is not just going to go away regardless whether Tommen is around or not.

But with Aegon (and eventually Daenerys) the way to Winterfell might go through the Iron Throne. Especially since that could also help with the other goal - vengeance. Sansa being Lady of Winterfell is going to help her with getting back at Cersei. In fact, if she returned back North without dealing with her enemies in the South they might eventually come for her.

Thus it makes a lot of sense to assume that Sansa and Littlefinger would be more than tempted to enter into the new civil war on Aegon's side. Especially since this could also get Sansa very close to the Iron Throne.

Well, what information we have strongly suggests that there will be a lot of civil war and plotting going on in the South. In the North open conflict should end with the Stannis-Bolton fights. But afterwards they will have to deal with famine, cold, and winter, and quite likely different ideas and approaches how to deal with the Others. In their minds and politics the Others will become the top priority but the fact that Stannis (a doomed pretender) is leading this enterprise will make it difficult/impossible for them to get the message across to the people south of the Neck.

There has to be a lot of material really building up the threat of the Others or else they will be some sort of weird epilogue. We have to understand who they are, what they want, how they operate, what they are doing, why they are dangerous and terrible. We have to see this winter they are bringing, and we also have to get the feeling of hopelessness that comes with it. In such a setting there won't be much space for a game of thrones, at least not for a clean game and conventional warfare.

Such a radically divergent view of the path ahead. I disagree on so many fronts, but fundamentally with your vision of the irrelevence of the North's politics and the inevitability of the North becoming a desolate wasteland, relying on the South for salvation.

You vision NEEDS Jon to turn away from Winterfell and instead head off on some boring zombified quest into the Lands Beyond the Wall - this after we had to wait for 3 damn books just to get him back from his previous, boring trip into the boring Frostfangs, and now have to also wait for Bran to return from his boring cave for probably another book.

We've seen the Lands Beyond the Wall. They are boring. There is hardly anything living left there anymore. There isn't much story to tell there that is interesting, or interaction with other human beings. The story has now shifted south of the Wall.

Your vision ignores the huge buildup Martin has put into the North's ongoing political climate. We see more of the North's politics than of any other Westerosi region outside of King's Landing. Do you think that is just wasted pages, banged in by Martin for the hell of it?

Rickon has been setup for a return. Martin invested all three Davos chapters in Dance into that. The Northern hostages are about to be freed in the Riverlands. The Skags are about to enter the fray.

The original Stark/Bolton rivalry is said to date back right to events that unfolded during the original Long Night. I expect these type of feuds, conflicts and dramas to continue right into the new Long Night. The most boring story imaginable is the North effectively disappearing as a political entity as soon as the Wall falls, and Daenerys arriving to sweep all of the South together into a big, badass army that defeats the Others on the Trident. I know you think that is where it is all going to culminate.

I think it is all going to culminate at Winterfell. Where Winter Fell the last time around. That doesn't mean that there won't be pitched battles against the undead hordes on the Trident, in the Crownlands and perhaps even in the Reach and Stormlands. But there won't be a coherent front. It will be all out war for survival all over the place, once the Wall has fallen.

So Daenerys may still have her moment in the sun, swooping down on Dragonback melting Others into water on the Trident, as her symbolic and far from conclusive vision depicted. But that doesn't mean that other battles aren't going on at Winterfell, Karhold and elsewhere at the same time.

It won't be a case of the Trident is the frontline and everything North of it is dead. That's not how this story will play out. I am convinced of it.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Such a radically divergent view of the path ahead. I disagree on so many fronts, but fundamentally with your vision of the irrelevence of the North's politics and the inevitability of the North becoming a desolate wasteland, relying on the South for salvation.

On Daenerys and Essos, basically. Not the South. The South will rip itself to pieces, too. Euron, Aegon, Littlefinger, Catelyn, the Martells, and the Tyrells will see to that. And Cersei. Cersei most of all.

But the North will still be in worse shape than the South because they are up north, have no food, and will be hit hardest by winter. There is no way around that.

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You vision NEEDS Jon to turn away from Winterfell and instead head off on some boring zombified quest into the Lands Beyond the Wall - this after we had to wait for 3 damn books just to get him back from his previous, boring trip into the boring Frostfangs, and now have to also wait for Bran to return from his boring cave for probably another book.

No, I don't necessarily think Jon has to go beyond the Wall. He could do that but he could also take some sort of leadership position at Stannis' side. But one actually assumes that the people in the North will try to do something about the Others after they have overcome their petty (and stupid) differences.

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

We've seen the Lands Beyond the Wall. They are boring. There is hardly anything living left there anymore. There isn't much story to tell there that is interesting, or interaction with other human beings. The story has now shifted south of the Wall.

No, it hasn't. The Others are the most important plot point of this series.

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Your vision ignores the huge buildup Martin has put into the North's ongoing political climate. We see more of the North's politics than of any other Westerosi region outside of King's Landing. Do you think that is just wasted pages, banged in by Martin for the hell of it?

Martin wasted hundreds of pages on Robb, Renly, Balon, Viserys, Robert, Ned, Tywin, Lysa, and many other characters. And there wasn't a lot of buildup on northern politics in ADwD. There are basically two factions - Stannis and the Boltons. That's not exactly very complex.

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Rickon has been setup for a return. Martin invested all three Davos chapters in Dance into that. The Northern hostages are about to be freed in the Riverlands. The Skags are about to enter the fray.

So what? Those are all minor factions and not exactly very important characters. I'm looking forward to the Skagosi but they are not going to change the game.

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The original Stark/Bolton rivalry is said to date back right to events that unfolded during the original Long Night. I expect these type of feuds, conflicts and dramas to continue right into the new Long Night. The most boring story imaginable is the North effectively disappearing as a political entity as soon as the Wall falls, and Daenerys arriving to sweep all of the South together into a big, badass army that defeats the Others on the Trident. I know you think that is where it is all going to culminate.

The Boltons were a plot device to weaken the Starks. Their days are numbered. Just as the days of the Freys are. Those people aren't the real enemy. They are filler material.

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I think it is all going to culminate at Winterfell. Where Winter Fell the last time around. That doesn't mean that there won't be pitched battles against the undead hordes on the Trident, in the Crownlands and perhaps even in the Reach and Stormlands. But there won't be a coherent front. It wall be all out war for survival all over the place, once the Wall has fallen.

I don't think winter fell at Winterfell. Even if it did, there is no reason to assume things will repeat themselves. After all, this time the Others should be really defeated. Keep in mind that we don't yet know what happened last time. The Last Hero might have reached an understanding rather than winning a decisive victory over the enemy. If there wasn't some big twist to the story of the Last Hero we most likely would already know it in its entirety. Instead we have no idea who that man was or what he did.

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So Daenerys may still have her moment in the sun, swooping down on Dragonback melting Others into water on the Trident, as her symbolic and far from conclusive vision depicted. But that doesn't mean that other battles aren't going on at Winterfell, Karhold and elsewhere at the same time.

I doubt there will be any significant battles at Karhold.

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It won't be a case of the Trident is the frontline and everything North of it is dead. That's not how this story will play out. I am convinced of it.

We have to wait and see. But I really find your scenario completely unconvincing because it completely goes against anything we know about warfare. You retreat if you are attacked by an enemy who vastly outnumbers you and has superior weapon technology. The idea that the people in the North can stand against the Others in their castles simply makes no sense whatsoever. It is stupidity, both logistically (not all people will fit into those places; food will quickly run out) and strategically (you are cut off from potential allies and are unable to unite with them should the need arise).

Nobody in this series is stupid enough to do so. Keep in mind that Mance and his wildlings were smart enough to realize that they could not stand against the Others and decide to flee down south to hide behind the Wall? Why do you think they should decide to stand and fight after the Others break through the Wall?

[Free Northman Reborn]

36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

On Daenerys and Essos, basically. Not the South. The South will rip itself to pieces, too. Euron, Aegon, Littlefinger, Catelyn, the Martells, and the Tyrells will see to that. And Cersei. Cersei most of all.

But the North will still be in worse shape than the South because they are up north, have no food, and will be hit hardest by winter. There is no way around that.

No, I don't necessarily think Jon has to go beyond the Wall. He could do that but he could also take some sort of leadership position at Stannis' side. But one actually assumes that the people in the North will try to do something about the Others after they have overcome their petty (and stupid) differences.

No, it hasn't. The Others are the most important plot point of this series.

Martin wasted hundreds of pages on Robb, Renly, Balon, Viserys, Robert, Ned, Tywin, Lysa, and many other characters. And there wasn't a lot of buildup on northern politics in ADwD. There are basically two factions - Stannis and the Boltons. That's not exactly very complex.

So what? Those are all minor factions and not exactly very important characters. I'm looking forward to the Skagosi but they are not going to change the game.

The Boltons were a plot device to weaken the Starks. Their days are numbered. Just as the days of the Freys are. Those people aren't the real enemy. They are filler material.

I don't think winter fell at Winterfell. Even if it did, there is no reason to assume things will repeat themselves. After all, this time the Others should be really defeated. Keep in mind that we don't yet know what happened last time. The Last Hero might have reached an understanding rather than winning a decisive victory over the enemy. If there wasn't some big twist to the story of the Last Hero we most likely would already know it in its entirety. Instead we have no idea who that man was or what he did.

I doubt there will be any significant battles at Karhold.

We have to wait and see. But I really find your scenario completely unconvincing because it completely goes against anything we know about warfare. You retreat if you are attacked by an enemy who vastly outnumbers you and has superior weapon technology. The idea that the people in the North can stand against the Others in their castles simply makes no sense whatsoever. It is stupidity, both logistically (not all people will fit into those places; food will quickly run out) and strategically (you are cut off from potential allies and are unable to unite with them should the need arise).

Nobody in this series is stupid enough to do so. Keep in mind that Mance and his wildlings were smart enough to realize that they could not stand against the Others and decide to flee down south to hide behind the Wall? Why do you think they should decide to stand and fight after the Others break through the Wall?

Food doesn't run out the moment Winter arrives. In the North, it usually runs out about 3 years into a harsh Winter. And that's without Jon organizing loans from the Iron Bank, or Sansa getting control of food stockpiles in the Vale, and then selling it to Jon who pays for it with said Iron Bank money.

Why do you think Martin slipped in Baelish's hoarding of Vale food stockpiles into the Sansa spoiler chapter? The place that will need that food the most during Winter is the North, and Sansa is placed smack bang in the position to get control of those supplies. Do you think that is coincidence?

The North is going to fight a multi year battle agains the Others. The last time, it took years of the Long Night to cause Kingdoms of Men to fall one by one. These were the hundred petty kingdoms. This time you will have a united North, with fortresses all across the North, with White Harbor as its "mouth", as Jon called it, bringing in food and supplies from the Vale and elsewhere.

Don't get me wrong, a 10 year Winter will cripple the North and make them ripe for the Others to overcome. But the North is not going to be abandoned by folk who have lived there for 8000 years within the first 3 years of Winter. They will fight for their lands, if they are united.

And I agree that the situation will grow progressively more dire. But at the same time, I don't think the Others are going to wait 3 years before they move on down South. For one, the series won't continue for that long. And secondly, the South needs to start suffering from the Others for their threat to be truly justified.

My view is that Martin isn't wasting pages on the Nightfort and other castles along the Wall pointlessly being rebuilt. They are being rebuilt for a long term reason, and that is because they will be holdfasts against the Others, once the Wall falls. The same goes for the Thenns being settled at Karhold. They will continue to hold out there after the Wall falls. I expect these outposts of humanity all over the North, from the Nightfort down to Greywater Watch, and for as long as the series continues.

It will then be up to Jon, Bran and Sansa to craft a strategy to unite the Realm against this threat, and obviously to pull Daenerys into this alliance when she finally arrives - likely through Tyrion as an intermediary - to finally defeat the Others.

 

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Food doesn't run out the moment Winter arrives. In the North, it usually runs out about 3 years into a harsh Winter. And that's without Jon organizing loans from the Iron Bank, or Sansa getting control of food stockpiles in the Vale, and then selling it to Jon who pays for it with said Iron Bank money.

A lot of stores in the North have been depleted already. Winterfell's are destroyed, Deepwood Motte didn't get its last harvest in, neither did Karhold. Torrhen Square and the Stony Shore were raided by the Ironborn.

The entire North failed to bring in a proper last harvest due to Robb Stark's stupid war.

A loan is not food, and the Riverlands actually are in more dire need of food than the North - not to mention that more people are living there. And Sansa is a Tully, too.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Why do you think Martin slipped in Baelish's hoarding of Vale food stockpiles into the Sansa spoiler chapter? The place that will need that food the most during Winter is the North, and Sansa is placed smack bang in the position to get control of those supplies. Do you think that is coincidence?

Because Littlefinger is going to use that food to buy himself (and Sansa) a crown. They are not going to export that food to the North out of the goodness of their hearts. Even if they did, it wouldn't reach the people who need it the most nor would it be enough. The Vale produces a lot of food but I doubt they can feed the entire North and the Riverlands (and possibly other regions as well) without starving themselves.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The North is going to fight a multi year battle agains the Others. The last time, it took years of the Long Night to cause Kingdoms of Men to fall one by one. These were the hundred petty kingdoms. This time you will have a united North, with fortresses all across the North, with White Harbor as its "mouth", as Jon called it, bringing in food and supplies from the Vale and elsewhere.

I guess the wights are just going to allow those food trains to reach all those castles, right? They will stand aside while people move the carts through the snow? And why the hell would anybody want to ship food to people who are most likely to be killed by the Others and wights anyway? That would be a waste of resources. There is a small chance that they might plan to send food to the North before the Others make their move - but then, why should they waste precious food while winter hasn't really settled in. The real famine is going to begin in the second or third winter year, not in the first. 

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Don't get me wrong, a 10 year Winter will cripple the North and make them ripe for the Others to overcome. But the North is not going to be abandoned by folk who have lived there for 8000 years within the first 3 years of Winter. They will fight for their lands, if they are united.

If they do, they will lose. They will all die and rise with black hands and blue eyes to fight for the Others. You don't stand against the Others and live. Your scenario could make some sense if the Starks had been preparing the North for the Others for the last five books, adding to the stores, strengthening the castles, forging weapons, (re-)discovering anti-Others spells.

But nothing of this sort happened. Chaos reigns in the North right now, and that's not going to change when the Others come. It will only get worse. Even if Jon became a new King in the North he would just be pale reflection of Robb. Robb had 20,000 fighting Northmen. Jon could never even hope to have half of that. And whatever men he might have would be undisciplined wildlings with ridiculous weaponry. People who don't have any provisions of their own. And the Northmen can only feed them at their own expense.

And why is only a 10-year-winter going to be a problem? We know that a six-year-winter is very hard, too. And George has repeatedly stated that a lot of people die in the North each winter. Winter isn't a joke in this series, especially not in the North.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And I agree that the situation will grow progressively more dire. But at the same time, I don't think the Others are going to wait 3 years before they move on down South. For one, the series won't continue for that long. And secondly, the South needs to start suffering from the Others for their threat to be truly justified.

There is actually no need for that. Technically it is possible that the threat of the Others north of the Neck is going to cause the people down in the South to overcome their petty squabbles and help their fellow men. But I'm with you that the Southrons should also feel the power of the Others before they actually move against them. However, it would still be the Northmen who suffer the first hard blow, and if the Others are meticulous and thorough they might first kill everybody north of the Wall before attacking it, then kill everybody between the crushed Wall and the Neck, and finally everybody between the Neck and Red Mountains, before finally taking on Dorne.

I mean, those creatures seem to be pretty smart and thorough. They make few mistakes and only strike if they are sure they can win. And they have no reason to think that mankind can stand against them. They can take their time.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

My view is that Martin isn't wasting pages on the Nightfort and other castles along the Wall being rebuilt. They are being rebuilt for a long term reason, and that is because they will be holdfasts against the Others, once the Wall falls. The same goes for the Thenns being settled at Karhold. They will continue to hold out there after the Wall falls. I expect these outposts of humanity all over the North, from the Nightfort down to Greywater Watch, and for as long as the series continues.

Well, then I guess Aegon (and Tommen before him) taking the Iron Throne also is going to mean that he will hold it, right? Because him taking it wouldn't make sense if this wasn't part of a 'longterm strategy'? I guess you also believe Bonifer Hasty and Genna Lannister Frey will keep Harrenhal and Riverrun because they were just taking possession of those castles at the end of AFfC?

The whole castle thing was part of Jon and Stannis' agenda prior to the scrapping of the five year gap. Stannis and Jon (and Daenerys in Meereen) don't know that they can't chill for five years. Thus things continue as they were begun at the end of ASoS but they most likely won't pay off the way they once were supposed to.

I think the Nightfort is going to become important, though. Stannis and Mel might actually end up there, and I'm pretty sure

Spoiler

the magical gate beneath the castle will be the door Hodor is going (to try) to hold.

And the idea that any castle at the Wall is going to survive the fall of the Wall is ridiculous. The Wall towers hundreds of meters above those castles and they are very close to it. We know that the Horn of Winter causes a magical earthquake and such an earthquake would most likely bring down portions of the Wall on the castles in its shadow. Not to mention that the earthquake in itself would also destroy the castles which most certainly weren't built to withstand magical earthquakes.

Stannis and Mel might be there and die when the Wall comes tumbling down. That would be a fitting end for them. It would also be a good point of the whole Shireen plot to unfold.

[Free Northman Reborn]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

A lot of stores in the North have been depleted already. Winterfell's are destroyed, Deepwood Motte didn't get its last harvest in, neither did Karhold. Torrhen Square and the Stony Shore were raided by the Ironborn.

The entire North failed to bring in a proper last harvest due to Robb Stark's stupid war.

A loan is not food, and the Riverlands actually are in more dire need of food than the North - not to mention that more people are living there. And Sansa is a Tully, too.

Because Littlefinger is going to use that food to buy himself (and Sansa) a crown. They are not going to export that food to the North out of the goodness of their hearts. Even if they did, it wouldn't reach the people who need it the most nor would it be enough. The Vale produces a lot of food but I doubt they can feed the entire North and the Riverlands (and possibly other regions as well) without starving themselves.

I guess the wights are just going to allow those food trains to reach all those castles, right? They will stand aside while people move the carts through the snow? And why the hell would anybody want to ship food to people who are most likely to be killed by the Others and wights anyway? That would be a waste of resources. There is a small chance that they might plan to send food to the North before the Others make their move - but then, why should they waste precious food while winter hasn't really settled in. The real famine is going to begin in the second or third winter year, not in the first. 

If they do, they will lose. They will all die and rise with black hands and blue eyes to fight for the Others. You don't stand against the Others and live. Your scenario could make some sense if the Starks had been preparing the North for the Others for the last five books, adding to the stores, strengthening the castles, forging weapons, (re-)discovering anti-Others spells.

But nothing of this sort happened. Chaos reigns in the North right now, and that's not going to change when the Others come. It will only get worse. Even if Jon became a new King in the North he would just be pale reflection of Robb. Robb had 20,000 fighting Northmen. Jon could never even hope to have half of that. And whatever men he might have would be undisciplined wildlings with ridiculous weaponry. People who don't have any provisions of their own. And the Northmen can only feed them at their own expense.

And why is only a 10-year-winter going to be a problem? We know that a six-year-winter is very hard, too. And George has repeatedly stated that a lot of people die in the North each winter. Winter isn't a joke in this series, especially not in the North.

There is actually no need for that. Technically it is possible that the threat of the Others north of the Neck is going to cause the people down in the South to overcome their petty squabbles and help their fellow men. But I'm with you that the Southrons should also feel the power of the Others before they actually move against them. However, it would still be the Northmen who suffer the first hard blow, and if the Others are meticulous and thorough they might first kill everybody north of the Wall before attacking it, then kill everybody between the crushed Wall and the Neck, and finally everybody between the Neck and Red Mountains, before finally taking on Dorne.

I mean, those creatures seem to be pretty smart and thorough. They make few mistakes and only strike if they are sure they can win. And they have no reason to think that mankind can stand against them. They can take their time.

Well, then I guess Aegon (and Tommen before him) taking the Iron Throne also is going to mean that he will hold it, right? Because him taking it wouldn't make sense if this wasn't part of a 'longterm strategy'? I guess you also believe Bonifer Hasty and Genna Lannister Frey will keep Harrenhal and Riverrun because they were just taking possession of those castles at the end of AFfC?

The whole castle thing was part of Jon and Stannis' agenda prior to the scrapping of the five year gap. Stannis and Jon (and Daenerys in Meereen) don't know that they can't chill for five years. Thus things continue as they were begun at the end of ASoS but they most likely won't pay off the way they once were supposed to.

I think the Nightfort is going to become important, though. Stannis and Mel might actually end up there, and I'm pretty sure

  Reveal hidden contents

the magical gate beneath the castle will be the door Hodor is going (to try) to hold.

And the idea that any castle at the Wall is going to survive the fall of the Wall is ridiculous. The Wall towers hundreds of meters above those castles and they are very close to it. We know that the Horn of Winter causes a magical earthquake and such an earthquake would most likely bring down portions of the Wall on the castles in its shadow. Not to mention that the earthquake in itself would also destroy the castles which most certainly weren't built to withstand magical earthquakes.

Stannis and Mel might be there and die when the Wall comes tumbling down. That would be a fitting end for them. It would also be a good point of the whole Shireen plot to unfold.

Look, there is so much to disagree with in the above. But for the sake of focus, I will try and limit it to a few issues per post.

Let me start with your fixation on Sansa marrying Aegon. And tying the Vale's food stores to this endeavour. This to me is connecting dots that don't exist. There is no indication that Aegon will be in desperate need of food stores when he takes King's Landing. He will have access to the entire South's harvests. The Vale's food is hardly going to be a deciding factor in him marrying Sansa.

As for Sansa herself, she does not offer him anything. Rickon will be back, robbing her of her claim to Winterfell. Rickon's survival will incidentally also rob her of her claim to the Riverlands - should Edmure and his child be dead at that point. And her claim to the Vale - and control of its food stocks - will only exist if she is married to Harry and pregnant with his child. Marrying Aegon would rob her of even that.

So in short, Sansa is in no way a candidate for Aegon's hand in marriage. I just think you are completely missing the boat on this issue, which I know is one you have pushed strongly for a long time.

As for the rest, I will apply my mind and respond to them bit by bit.

EDIT

Not to mention that tying Sansa's entire development arc to marrying a doomed pretender will be a hell of a waste and anti-climax. I don't see her able to help rebuild the North - as her snow scene foreshadowed - after such a calamity. Having control of the Vale, however, does allow her to do just that. But for that she has to be married to Harry, not Aegon.

[Doran the Dreamer]

On 3-1-2017 at 4:40 PM, estermonty python said:

I agree with this breakdown - except I don't see how Robett and Galbart can break with one another.  At any rate, what's important is where the Glover forces go, and I presume they'll initially go with Robett but will move to their Lord, Galbart, when he is revealed to be alive.

I cannot think of a single other Northern leader who can lead an army and isn't missing, imprisoned, or dead - can you?  The Manderlys are fat, Maege Mormont, Galbart Glover, and Hal Mollen are missing, the Greatjon and Harrion Karstark are imprisoned, Whoresbane and Crowfood are too old to fight hand to hand, and everyone else that's ever been mentioned is dead - am I missing anyone?

 

I don't really think Galbart and Robett will fight each other. I think it will be an issue of communication. Both brothers are likely unaware of where the other is, and if the other is even alive. So they might be unbeknownst working towards different ends.

How much is left of the Glover forces? The Glover army in the South has surely disbanded. How many Glover men are still in the North? There seat has been held by Ironborn, so I'm expecting not that many. Unless if the Clans of the Wolfswood follow the Glovers?

Robett Glover might be the only Northern leader who I can think of. Although I believe Galbart and Maege will come into play real soon. Alysanne told us Maege has two of her daughters with her, so she must have been home at some point. But anyway, men like Wyman Manderly, can leave a second-in-command to lead the armies.

Oh, and the Magnar of Thenn. He's on his way to conquer Karhold. He can still lead an army. Also, I don't know if it's going to be a real battle between the two parties. I'm thinking more of a dispute.

[estermonty python]

32 minutes ago, Doran the Dreamer said:

I don't really think Galbart and Robett will fight each other. I think it will be an issue of communication. Both brothers are likely unaware of where the other is, and if the other is even alive. So they might be unbeknownst working towards different ends.

How much is left of the Glover forces? The Glover army in the South has surely disbanded. How many Glover men are still in the North? There seat has been held by Ironborn, so I'm expecting not that many. Unless if the Clans of the Wolfswood follow the Glovers?

Robett Glover might be the only Northern leader who I can think of. Although I believe Galbart and Maege will come into play real soon. Alysanne told us Maege has two of her daughters with her, so she must have been home at some point. But anyway, men like Wyman Manderly, can leave a second-in-command to lead the armies.

Oh, and the Magnar of Thenn. He's on his way to conquer Karhold. He can still lead an army. Also, I don't know if it's going to be a real battle between the two parties. I'm thinking more of a dispute.

Between the two Robett seems more capable.  Certainly he's had a more interesting path.  As far as I can tell he's Galbart's heir, as its his wife and kids holding Deepwood Motte, not Galbart.  One would hope and expect Robett would ally with Stannis even if the Manderlys were lukewarm on the idea, as Stannis liberated his wife and children from the Ironborn.  

It's worth noting that Sybelle Glover is a Locke by birth, and Donnel Locke was killed at the Red Wedding.  That's another anti-Bolton, pro Stannis house.

I do agree re: weakening of the Glover forces.  It's not just the taking of Deepwoode.  Let's not forget its Robett and his men that Roose sent to die at Duskendale, and were cut off by Gregor and his merry band of assholes while retreating.  Theon notes that exactly zero Glover men are with Rodrik Cassel in the massacre outside of Winterfell - he assumes its because of his sister taking Deepwoode, but I think they may have already been dead.

By "Glover men" I suppose I meant the clansmen sworn to House Glover that Sybelle Glover commits to Stannis's cause.

[Lord Varys]

@Free Northman Reborn

You misunderstand me. I don't necessarily think Sansa is going to marry Aegon. The idea of Littlefinger using the hoarded food in the Vale to bay them a crown is simply an assessment of their capabilities. Legal claims, nobility, and wealth will no longer matter in winter. Power will reside with the people who control the most resources, and a man like Littlefinger will use that advantage to acquire even more power.

Sansa could just as well make Harry king if she plays her cards right, or Littlefinger himself (which most likely is Littlefinger's ultimate goal, anyway).

If Euron continues to raid and plunder the southern coasts and if there is some real fighting in the Vale food is going to get scarce pretty soon. The Riverlands are already destroyed, Robb's troops would have had some effect on the provisions in the West, and we know from ACoK that the Crownlands can't feed the population KL all by themselves. A population that recently increased after many sparrows migrated to the city.

But it is pretty obvious that any sane and rational person correctly assessing the political situation in Westeros at this time would seriously consider to offer Sansa to Aegon in marriage. That would resolve a lot of problems for Sansa and it would also enable her to get her vengeance and help her restore the Starks to Winterfell.

Only a fool would not consider this possibility. This doesn't mean that such a marriage is actually going to happen. Other factors might prevent it. Arianne might already have set her eyes on Aegon, Varys/Illyrio might put plans in motion to ensure that Littlefinger doesn't get too close to their precious dragons, etc.

However, it is still very likely that the Lords of the Vale will jump on the chance to finally participate in the war against the Lannisters. Going north in the middle of winter is suicide. But deploying some ships to the Crownlands should still be feasible early in winter, especially if the Lannisters/Tyrells don't see that coming.

There is no reason to believe Sansa is going to Winterfell soon. She could return there only after the Others have been defeated.

Sansa could actually marry both Harry and Aegon. I doubt that this is going to happen, though. In any case, Aegon's arrival is a game changer and could thus change the Harry plans. They could decide to cancel that marriage - a marriage that is supposed to take place months or years in the future, anyway. Right now Lord Robert Arryn is still alive and Petyr Baelish is his Lord Protector. If the Vale is going to war next week Littlefinger will make that call, not Harrold Hardyng.

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@Free Northman Reborn

You misunderstand me. I don't necessarily think Sansa is going to marry Aegon. The idea of Littlefinger using the hoarded food in the Vale to bay them a crown is simply an assessment of their capabilities. Legal claims, nobility, and wealth will no longer matter in winter. Power will reside with the people who control the most resources, and a man like Littlefinger will use that advantage to acquire even more power.

Sansa could just as well make Harry king if she plays her cards right, or Littlefinger himself (which most likely is Littlefinger's ultimate goal, anyway).

If Euron continues to raid and plunder the southern coasts and if there is some real fighting in the Vale food is going to get scarce pretty soon. The Riverlands are already destroyed, Robb's troops would have had some effect on the provisions in the West, and we know from ACoK that the Crownlands can't feed the population KL all by themselves. A population that recently increased after many sparrows migrated to the city.

But it is pretty obvious that any sane and rational person correctly assessing the political situation in Westeros at this time would seriously consider to offer Sansa to Aegon in marriage. That would resolve a lot of problems for Sansa and it would also enable her to get her vengeance and help her restore the Starks to Winterfell.

Only a fool would not consider this possibility. This doesn't mean that such a marriage is actually going to happen. Other factors might prevent it. Arianne might already have set her eyes on Aegon, Varys/Illyrio might put plans in motion to ensure that Littlefinger doesn't get too close to their precious dragons, etc.

However, it is still very likely that the Lords of the Vale will jump on the chance to finally participate in the war against the Lannisters. Going north in the middle of winter is suicide. But deploying some ships to the Crownlands should still be feasible early in winter, especially if the Lannisters/Tyrells don't see that coming.

There is no reason to believe Sansa is going to Winterfell soon. She could return there only after the Others have been defeated.

Sansa could actually marry both Harry and Aegon. I doubt that this is going to happen, though. In any case, Aegon's arrival is a game changer and could thus change the Harry plans. They could decide to cancel that marriage - a marriage that is supposed to take place months or years in the future, anyway. Right now Lord Robert Arryn is still alive and Petyr Baelish is his Lord Protector. If the Vale is going to war next week Littlefinger will make that call, not Harrold Hardyng.

Regarding the few bolded parts. So you accept that Sansa will not marry Aegon. Therefore the Vale's food supplies will be untouched. (Note that Littlefinger's current intention for stockpiling food in no way needs to agree to the eventual use that the food is put to. In fact, giving Littlefinger a plausible, selfish reason for stockpiling it is simply good writing, as he would hardly be keeping it aside to be charitable to the North in future. The point is that Sansa will eventually put it to a different use than Littlefinger is currently intending it for.)

I just have to point out to you that Martin has laid the hints of where the food for the North is going to come from across more than one chapter. When Jon is bargaining with Tycho for an Iron Bank loan, he also mentions that the most likely place to use these funds to purchase food from is the Vale. Only for Martin to indeed make specific reference to the Vale's excess food supplies ready for shipping, in the Sansa spoiler chapter.

As for going North. Not once did I suggest that the Vale military forces will venture Northwards. It is ships carrying food I am talking about, not soldiers.

And as for Sansa going to Winterfell. I did not suggest that at any point either. There is no need for her to travel to Winterfell at any point. Her presence is required to secure the Vale.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding the few bolded parts. So you accept that Sansa will not marry Aegon.

I don't accept that at all. I'm saying that I don't insist Sansa will marry Aegon. I say that I consider that a very likely possibility the plot will inevitably touch upon. Whether there will be a marriage in the end is unclear, but I think it is a given that the troops of the Vale will participate in the coming war on Aegon's side.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Therefore the Vale's food supplies will be untouched. (Note that Littlefinger's current intention for stockpiling food in no way needs to agree to the eventual use that the food is put to. In fact, giving Littlefinger a plausible, selfish reason for stockpiling it is simply good writing, as he would hardly be keeping it aside to be charitable to the North in future. The point is that Sansa will eventually put it to a different use than Littlefinger is currently intending it for.)

Alayne 1 has the Lords of the Vale already selling their surplus food at low prices. Littlefinger is telling his cronies from Gulltown and elsewhere to hoard their food and not follow the trend. The idea that Sansa will eventually control the food in the Vale is, well, not very likely. Sansa isn't a woman grown. She is not going to control anything directly.

And I think you are misjudging her character if you think she is going to act just as a food supply for the North. She is now Littlefinger's apprentice and even if she eventually turns against him she might stick to his methods. She doesn't gain anything if she just gives away food and gets nothing in return.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I just have to point out to you that Martin has laid the hints of where the food for the North is going to come from across more than one chapter. When Jon is bargaining with Tycho for an Iron Bank loan, he also mentions that the most likely place to use these funds to purchase food from is the Vale. Only for Martin to indeed make specific reference to the Vale's excess food supplies ready for shipping, in the Sansa spoiler chapter.

That isn't a surprise. The Vale is the one of two regions that hasn't been touched by the war. And unlike Dorne it is actually a very fertile place reasonably close to the Wall in comparison to the Reach (where they could also ask for food). But many characters make plans that lead to nothing. Robb wanted to retake Moat Cailin and the North. Cersei wanted to name a new master-at-arms for the Red Keep. Quentyn wanted to become a dragonrider. A contract for a loan isn't a loan. A loan isn't food. And a contract to get food isn't the same as delivering the food to the people who need it.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for going North. Not once did I suggest that the Vale military forces will venture Northwards. It is ships carrying food I am talking about, not soldiers.

That could happen I guess. If the plot wants to go down that road. But we should keep in mind that the Northmen still have some food of their own. Not much but some. And they are likely to first eat what they have before they begin begging the Southrons for some alms.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And as for Sansa going to Winterfell. I did not suggest that at any point either. There is no need for her to travel to Winterfell at any point. Her presence is required to secure the Vale.

And what when she has secured the Vale? The plan in AFfC sees her actually going North and claiming Winterfell for herself.

[Scorpion92]

I just think that thematically all Stark kids are going to reunite at Winterfell having spent some time away: Jon with Night's Watch/wildlings, Rickon on Skagos, Bran beyond the Wall/Children of the Forest, Arya in Riverlands/Braavos, and Sansa in King's Landing/Vale.

I think each Stark kid will play a role to restore the ultimate POWER of House Stark (and what this series is all about). I already posted on how I think Stannis' campaign will result in the defeat of Boltons and installation of Rickon as Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North and House Manderly as his guardian since they will be the most powerful house of the region once Boltons are gone. But that will mean restoration of House Stark in NAME ONLY, and nominally Lord Manderly will have all the political power. We have history of House Manderly supporting the claim of Gardener claimaint in the Reach, and eventually they got burned for their ambitions and got exiled.

The next phase will be Jon Snow. As I stated earlier, after Jon's resurrection Stannis would be long gone to do his duty for his southern citizens (he will plan to take Dragonstone and then launch second siege of the capital in order to take Iron Throne, which will give him all kinds of boost to deal with Lannisters, Aegon and Euron, and then unite the South and send people to the Wall to guard the realm from the invasion of the Others; unfortunately, he will face Daenerys on Dragonstone and die). Jon will need to become Rickon's regent and take control of Winterfell in order to command northerners to help him in defense of the Wall.

I don't think northern nobility led by Lord Manderly will willingly give custody of their boy liege lord to Ned Stark's bastard who claims to be resurrected (who is going to believe this nonsense?) and who abandoned his post as Lord Commander of Night's Watch and leads an army of hated wildlings. And I think in the eyes of northern nobles Jon wants to come south not to become the regent of Rickon, but usurp his half-brother's rightful place as Lord of Winterfell. And who would blame them, right? I know I will view it as an attempt at usurpation.

There will be a split among northern nobles on Jon Snow, especially those who know about Robb's will. I definitely see a conflict arising between Lord Manderly/coalition of some northern nobles (Lady Dustin, Whoresbane Umber, maybe even Harrion Karstark who might be returned home after Arthor delivers news of Stannis' "defeat" in crofter's village, etc., in other words, northern lords and ladies with most power and resources) vs Jon Snow, Free Folk, houses like Mormont, Glover, etc. (who honor Robb's will), maybe even some Skagosi who will arrive with Davos to Castle Black and witness his resurrection. I don't know.

There will be no right or wrong in this situation just like it always is in this series. Both sides will have strong arguments against the other. Since Jon Snow will be a little bit changed after his resurrection, I expect he will be more ruthless, surround himself with trusted allies to avoid the situation like during his death, and be more determined since he clearly sees the end goal and the means to achieve them. "Kill the boy, Jon Snow!"

And I think there is a VERY strong reason why Lord Bronze Yohn Royce is strongly associated with Starks. He had a very good relationship with Ned Stark, and we know how much Jon Snow resembles his dad (okay, uncle, I know). I tend to believe Royce will play a huge role in helping Jon to restore not only the NAME, but the POWER of House Stark. The only way it can happen if a member of House Stark has the ultimate say in the matters of the North. I don't see that happening when someone else has the regency over Rickon.

And besides, Robb Stark won the allegiance of river lords when he proved his valor and courage against Lannisters at Riverrun. I think Vale lords, Lord Royce particularly, will swear fealty to Jon, Ned Stark's son and mirror image, when he proves his courage and valor at Winterfell. Valemen did sit out the War of Five Kings and did not join House Stark. I think second time around it will not happen again.

And besides, I am pretty sure Littlefinger has eyes on Winterfell and plans to take control of the North through Sansa. He cannot let either Rickon or Jon to be installed as new Lord of Winterfell, so I believe Littlefinger will have a hand in plotting to murder Rickon (which he will be successful at) and Jon (as I said, Snow will be much careful with who he surrounds himself with after his resurrection). That assassin loyal to Littlefinger can be placed among the Vale army if they arrive at Winterfell. But that is one of the possible scenarios of course. Add the food factor in the Vale and cold and starving North, it kind of adds up.