Where do the loyalties of the Northern Houses lie

[Clegane'sPup]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Mors remained behind near Winterfell. He didn't accompany Theon, Jeyne, and Tycho to Stannis. And Tycho knew Asha because he was in the company of her men. The ones he bought free from Lady Glover at Deepwood Motte, Botley and Qarl the Maid among them.

My impression is that Tycho was told where Stannis was by Theon who saw the map the maester sent to Roose via raven. Theon grew up around Winterfell and most likely had visited that village in the past, being able to direct the party to Stannis' location.

Dance with Dragons - The Sacrifice

The tall man slid gracefully from his garron, removed his peculiar hat, and bowed. "I have the honor to be Tycho Nestoris, a humble servant of the Iron Bank of Braavos."

Of all the strange things that might have come riding out of the night, the last one Asha Greyjoy would ever have expected was a Braavosi banker. It was too absurd. She had to laugh. "King Stannis has taken the watchtower for his seat. Ser Clayton will be pleased to show you to him, I'm sure."

"That would be most kind. Time is of the essence." The banker studied her with shrewd dark eyes. "You are the Lady Asha of House Greyjoy, unless I am mistaken."

"I am Asha of House Greyjoy, aye. Opinions differ on whether I'm a lady."

The Braavosi smiled. "We've brought a gift for you." He beckoned to the men behind him. "We had expected to find the king at Winterfell. This same blizzard has engulfed the castle, alas. Beneath its walls we found Mors Umber with a troop of raw green boys, waiting for the king's coming. He gave us this."

Mors is at Stannis' camp

WoW spoiler
 

Spoiler

 

Mors Umber had grunted. "Aye." What he might have said or done next Theon never learned, for that was when the boy ran up, clutching a spear and shouting that the portcullis on Winterfell's main gate was rising. And how Crowfood had grinned at that.

Theon twisted in his chains, and blinked down at the king. "Crowfood found us, yes, he sent us here to you, but it was me who saved her. Ask her yourself." She would tell him. "You saved me," Jeyne had whispered, as he was carrying her through the snow. She was pale with pain, but she had brushed one hand across his cheek and smiled. "I saved Lady Arya," Theon whispered back at her. And then all at once Mors Umber's spears were all around them. "Is this my thanks?" he asked Stannis, kicking feebly against the wall. His shoulders were in agony. His own weight was tearing them from their sockets. How long had he been hanging here? Was it still night outside? The tower was windowless, he had no way to know.

 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

Theon is thinking back to meeting Mors outside Winterfell. Mors is not present at Stannis's camp. At least not yet...

Spoiler

There is an unofficially deciphered, partial screenshot of a page from Martin's next chapter at Stannis's camp that is suggested to show Mors's shaggy white head arriving on a pole as a trophy of the charging Frey army arriving at Stannis's camp, however. But that remains to be confirmed.

 

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Theon is thinking back to meeting Mors outside Winterfell. Mors is not present at Stannis's camp. At least not yet...

There is an unofficially deciphered, partial screenshot of a page from Martin's next chapter at Stannis's camp that is suggested to show Mors's shaggy white head arriving on a pole as a trophy of the charging Frey army arriving at Stannis's camp, however. But that remains to be confirmed.

Where the hell can you see this?

Completely in agreement about the whereabouts of Mors. If he had accompanied Theon he would have been with him and Stannis in Theon 1, talking to Stannis as Tycho Nestoris and others did. But Theon only thinks about meeting him and his men at Winterfell, and Stannis even talks about Mors' people not being able to stall the Freys/Boltons for long. That doesn't make it likely that Mors left his men near Winterfell.

[Free Northman Reborn]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Where the hell can you see this?

It was the topic of a thread some time ago. Sourced from a Reddit page where a photo of George in front of his computer was enlarged and the letters from the screen, seen at a difficult angle I might add, were painstakingly analysed to figure out some hints of what was on the page. Only a few sentences could be uncovered in the end, and even those were somewhat speculative. The chapter appeared to be from Asha's POV, if I recall. But as I said, it remains to be confirmed.

[Lord Varys]

Man, we have gotten sick indeed... Have to see this.

[Free Northman Reborn]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Man, we have gotten sick indeed... Have to see this.

Yeah.. It kind of makes sense, though. The 1500 strong Frey army was hardly going to leave Mors and his 400 green boys unpunished for killing Aenys Frey. 

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Yeah.. It kind of makes sense, though. The 1500 strong Frey army was hardly going to leave Mors and his 400 green boys unpunished for killing Hosteen. 

You mean Aenys Frey. But, yeah, Hosteen being headstrong and hotheaded most likely is going to cause him to avenge his half-brother before they march on. And Roose and Ramsay both would also be very interested in dealing with that problem first considering that Aenys' loss certainly makes them look as weak and ineffective as the previous escape of 'Lady Arya' made them look like.

Killing the people who were responsible isn't going to change much. But it might have some small effect.

And in my opinion it was exactly that kind of thinking that led to the writing of the Pink Letter. Ramsay and Roose can't get to Jon yet but they can write him an intimidating letter.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Yeah. I corrected Hosteen to Aenys. I found the reddit post, with the full deciphered paragraph. Struggling to copy the link on my phone. Google "Mors Umber head", and it brings it up fairly quickly. 

[Clegane'sPup]

Well ya'll are correct. I went back and read that Theon chapter. Mors is not in Stannis' camp. Theon was remembering. I also read the thread on reddit. Interesting stuff. If this is the one you are referencing

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/4ujyzo/spoilers_everything_the_old_northman_had_fought/

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

Just now, Clegane'sPup said:

Well ya'll are correct. I went back and read that Theon chapter. Mors is not in Stannis' camp. Theon was remembering. I also read the thread on reddit. Interesting stuff. If this is the one you are referencing

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/4ujyzo/spoilers_everything_the_old_northman_had_fought/

 

Yeah, that's the one.

So I think it is confirmed that we have seperate waves of armies arriving at the Lake of Ice. The Freys first, with the Manderlys probably following behind them. And then maybe a day or so later I suspect Ramsay's forces arrive, to what they believe was a bloody battle, costing all the Frey lives, but which saw Stannis defeated. Or that's what Stannis wants him to believe.

[estermonty python]

On 12/30/2016 at 6:16 PM, Nevets said:

Having a wildling army is likely to be as much a detriment as an asset.   They are widely perceived as the North's main enemy, so coming to power at the head of a wildling army could cause serious problems.

I expect that he will almost certainly refuse the position.  He is very focused on the threat from the Others.  Even if he actually dies and is resurrected, I expect him to remain with the NW.  The only way I see him taking political power is if it is necessary to fighting the Others.

I agree re: wildling army.  It will turn the Umbers off, in particular.  At least he HAS an army, though.  

While I agree that it is not in Jon's character to usurp the positions of any of his siblings (not even Sansa), I presume he'd view holding Winterfell as absolutely essential to a fight against the Others.  Right before he died he was prepared to go fight the Boltons in Winterfell, so either he must not be THAT focused on the Others or he views liberating and holding Winterfell as a key strategic necessity.  

Also, as far as resurrections go, we've seen three so far: Beric, Cat, and the Mountain.  All 3 come back different - specifically, they have lost a measure of humanity, and are myopically focused on their primary objective prior to death.  The last thing Beric was doing was hunting the Mountain and his men; that's all he does once resurrected.  Cat was killing Freys when she died; that's all she does now.  And Gregor was killing a Lannister enemy.  Maybe there's a connection, maybe not.  It's worth noting, though, that Jon's primary objective right before he died was to liberate Winterfell from the Boltons.

On 12/30/2016 at 6:29 PM, Horse of Kent said:

I meant that if there were no male Stark alternatives the North would be fine with a woman making the decisions. They were allowed to sort out the succession at the time of the She-Wolves of Winterfell despite having no entitlement, so women calling the shots is not so alien to Northerners. 

The Dance of Dragons was significantly more complicated than just not wanting to be ruled by a woman. Some interpretations make Rhaenyra the rightful ruler, others Aegon.

Not necessarily - does a legitimised male bastard slot into the line of succession where a true-born male of the same age would be, after all true-born sons but before daughters, or after all true-born children?

If Bran and Rickon are believed to be dead then they probably would just not have been mentioned in the will, so their previous position would possibly remain the same. It depends on whether Jon was legitimised and made heir or just legitimised with the assumption that would make him heir anyway.

There is also a difference between Bran and Rickon, who Robb 'knew' were dead, and Arya - who Robb thought most likely was. When discussing who to name as heir with Cat, he still holds out hope that Arya might return, so who knows if a clause references that possibility. If nothing else, Robb would have pleased his mother if he made it clear that a trueborn Stark comes ahead of Jon, should such a situation arise.

I think legitimized bastards slot behind trueborn sons but ahead of trueborn daughters.  Otherwise there's no real reason to legitimize them in the first place, as trueborn daughters only inherit once the patrilineal line is exhausted, right?  Or am I mistaken?  I could be totally wrong.

We won't know until its written, but letting the Stark widows sort out which Stark male will take over is not at all the same thing as ruling themselves - if the North would accept a female ruler, they'd be sqabbling for power, not influence.  Maybe that's what they'll be doing, though - we won't know until its written.  It's been mentioned elsewhere, but there certainly is a preponderance of minor Northern houses currently ruled by women.  I think the point of the story will be to explain why Edwyle Stark had only one sibling, Rickard Stark was an only child, and Benjen took the black even after Brandon and Lyanna were dead.

On 12/31/2016 at 10:14 AM, Doran the Dreamer said:

I've thought about which house might side with who.

Rickon's side:

-the Manderlys. He would probably be regent under Rickon's rule

-the Umbers. I believe they have been allied with the Manderlys for a long time.

-Robett Glover. Also an ally of the Manderlys

Jon's side:

-the Karstarks, under leadership of Alys Karstark. (All men of Arnolf's line are imprisoned)

-the Reeds. Howland knows about Jon's parentage and possibly about Robb's will (if Maege and Galbart reached him)

-the Mormonts. Maege knows about Robb's will. Since it's said she has two daughters with her, it's likely all her daughters know it.

-Galbart Glover. Knows about Robb's will.

I believe there are two Northern conspiracies who don't communicate with each other: those who will eventually side with Rickon and those who will side with Jon (minus the Karstarks).

I don't think there are any other houses that can play a big role. The other Northern houses are either anti-Stark altogether and will likely be defeated (Bolton, Dustin, Ryswell), have lost too many men (Cerwyn, Tallhart, Hornwood) or are too small to make a difference (Flint, Slate, Locke ...).

By the way, what makes you say Robett Glover is the only martial northsman?

I agree with this breakdown - except I don't see how Robett and Galbart can break with one another.  At any rate, what's important is where the Glover forces go, and I presume they'll initially go with Robett but will move to their Lord, Galbart, when he is revealed to be alive.

I cannot think of a single other Northern leader who can lead an army and isn't missing, imprisoned, or dead - can you?  The Manderlys are fat, Maege Mormont, Galbart Glover, and Hal Mollen are missing, the Greatjon and Harrion Karstark are imprisoned, Whoresbane and Crowfood are too old to fight hand to hand, and everyone else that's ever been mentioned is dead - am I missing anyone?

On 12/31/2016 at 11:24 AM, Lord Varys said:

That would be a rather pointless plot.

re: Rickon - yes, it would absolutely be a long, pointless plot for Rickon to re-emerge after substantial difficulty just to die.  That's the entire reason for the theory: a shaggy-dog story is a long, pointless plot, so the name of the wolf is a clue to Rickon's ultimate role in the story.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

I agree re: wildling army.  It will turn the Umbers off, in particular.  At least he HAS an army, though.  

While I agree that it is not in Jon's character to usurp the positions of any of his siblings (not even Sansa), I presume he'd view holding Winterfell as absolutely essential to a fight against the Others.  Right before he died he was prepared to go fight the Boltons in Winterfell, so either he must not be THAT focused on the Others or he views liberating and holding Winterfell as a key strategic necessity.  

There is no reason to believe that Winterfell is seen as important for the fight against the Others by Jon. The Pink Letter causes him to do what he does, and that has nothing to do with the Others. The Others become a secondary concern to him, it seems, because he (quite rightfully) concluded, I think, that unless he's going to do something about him Ramsay might indeed cut out his heart and eat it before the Others ever attack the Wall.

2 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

Also, as far as resurrections go, we've seen three so far: Beric, Cat, and the Mountain.  All 3 come back different - specifically, they have lost a measure of humanity, and are myopically focused on their primary objective prior to death.  The last thing Beric was doing was hunting the Mountain and his men; that's all he does once resurrected.  Cat was killing Freys when she died; that's all she does now.  And Gregor was killing a Lannister enemy.  Maybe there's a connection, maybe not.  It's worth noting, though, that Jon's primary objective right before he died was to liberate Winterfell from the Boltons.

I don't think we can say that Gregor was resurrected. We don't know whether he properly died. He could very have been transformed and twisted by Qyburn in a manner that goes well beyond a resurrection spell. 

Jon's case will be much different due to his skinchanger abilities.

2 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

I think legitimized bastards slot behind trueborn sons but ahead of trueborn daughters.  Otherwise there's no real reason to legitimize them in the first place, as trueborn daughters only inherit once the patrilineal line is exhausted, right?  Or am I mistaken?  I could be totally wrong.

There are no clear rules on any of that. However, it is quite clear that Robb Stark considered his trueborn siblings - brothers and sisters - to be more important than his bastard half-brother. Jon is a special case, though. His mother is unknown and thus people don't know whether he is half a peasant or not. Were he noble on both sides he certainly would be in a better position claim-wise than if his mother was a whore.

2 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

re: Rickon - yes, it would absolutely be a long, pointless plot for Rickon to re-emerge after substantial difficulty just to die.  That's the entire reason for the theory: a shaggy-dog story is a long, pointless plot, so the name of the wolf is a clue to Rickon's ultimate role in the story.

That is an interesting take. I'd be with you insofar as it is clear that Rickon is unimportant as a character. He always was. But that doesn't mean he has to die. He could just be the last male direwolf left standing, inheriting Winterfell by default (or at least the only direwolf in a position where taking over Winterfell makes a lot of sense).

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to believe that Winterfell is seen as important for the fight against the Others by Jon. The Pink Letter causes him to do what he does, and that has nothing to do with the Others. The Others become a secondary concern to him, it seems, because he (quite rightfully) concluded, I think, that unless he's going to do something about him Ramsay might indeed cut out his heart and eat it before the Others ever attack the Wall.

I don't think we can say that Gregor was resurrected. We don't know whether he properly died. He could very have been transformed and twisted by Qyburn in a manner that goes well beyond a resurrection spell. 

Jon's case will be much different due to his skinchanger abilities.

There are no clear rules on any of that. However, it is quite clear that Robb Stark considered his trueborn siblings - brothers and sisters - to be more important than his bastard half-brother. Jon is a special case, though. His mother is unknown and thus people don't know whether he is half a peasant or not. Were he noble on both sides he certainly would be in a better position claim-wise than if his mother was a whore.

That is an interesting take. I'd be with you insofar as it is clear that Rickon is unimportant as a character. He always was. But that doesn't mean he has to die. He could just be the last male direwolf left standing, inheriting Winterfell by default (or at least the only direwolf in a position where taking over Winterfell makes a lot of sense).

Why the aversion to Rickon being the figurehead for whom Jon rallies the North? The Show's twist on this theme to push Sansa into the Northern storyline could easily have been inspired by such an outline provided to them by George.

Imagine for a moment that Davos's Skagos visit does not go as smoothly as intended, and - perhaps due to severe Winter storms or some such eventuality - he makes it to Eastwatch by the Sea with Rickon, instead of to White Harbor. Just in time to meet up with the bunch of giants Jon sent around the Wall with their mammoths - There has to be some reason why Martin had them make that detour.

So when Jon wakes up, Davos arrives at Castle Black with 100 giants, Rickon and Shaggydog. Only to learn of Stannis's supposed death - true or fake, it makes no matter either way at that point.

Then, with all hope seemingly lost, and with Jeyne Pool just arrived, Jon learns the truth about Ramsay's precarious position at Winterfell. And at Alysane Mormont's suggestion - and now done with the Watch after they murdered him - he proceeds to march to Winterfell with giants, mammoths, and Rickon, rallying Northern lords to their true liege lord, Rickon Stark.

I see that as a feasible scenario. Especially with Bran orchestrating some omens in his favor.

EDIT

This would work even better if the Skags insist on accompanying Davos and Rickon en masse - to escape Winter. Their (at best) fishing fleet would not be able to make a long voyage to White Harbor. They would just be interested in making it to the mainland - the closest of which is Eastwatch.

And that would add their armed forces to Rickon's army.

[Nittanian]

1 hour ago, estermonty python said:

I think legitimized bastards slot behind trueborn sons but ahead of trueborn daughters.  Otherwise there's no real reason to legitimize them in the first place, as trueborn daughters only inherit once the patrilineal line is exhausted, right?  Or am I mistaken?  I could be totally wrong.

To expand upon what Lord Varys stated, GRRM once explained: 

Quote

A man's eldest son was his heir. After that the next eldest son. Then the next, etc. Daughters were not considered while there was a living son, except in Dorne, where females had equal right of inheritance according to age.

After the sons, most would say that the eldest daughter is next in line. But there might be an argument from the dead man's brothers, say. Does a male sibling or a female child take precedence? Each side has a "claim."

What if there are no childen, only grandchildren and great grandchildren. Is precedence or proximity the more important principle? Do bastards have any rights? What about bastards who have been legitimized, do they go in at the end after the trueborn kids, or according to birth order? What about widows? And what about the will of the deceased? Can a lord disinherit one son, and name a younger son as heir? Or even a bastard?

There are no clear cut answers, either in Westeros or in real medieval history. Things were often decided on a case by case basis. A case might set a precedent for later cases... but as often as not, the precedents conflicted as much as the claims.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 minutes ago, Nittanian said:

To expand upon what Lord Varys stated, GRRM once explained: 

 

This bolsters my scenario where Jon, realising this, throws his weight behind Rickon to solidify their position.

[estermonty python]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to believe that Winterfell is seen as important for the fight against the Others by Jon. The Pink Letter causes him to do what he does, and that has nothing to do with the Others. The Others become a secondary concern to him, it seems, because he (quite rightfully) concluded, I think, that unless he's going to do something about him Ramsay might indeed cut out his heart and eat it before the Others ever attack the Wall.

I agree with that.  Fighting enemies from both sides is pretty much impossible.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think we can say that Gregor was resurrected. We don't know whether he properly died. He could very have been transformed and twisted by Qyburn in a manner that goes well beyond a resurrection spell. 

Jon's case will be much different due to his skinchanger abilities.

Very true on both counts.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

There are no clear rules on any of that. However, it is quite clear that Robb Stark considered his trueborn siblings - brothers and sisters - to be more important than his bastard half-brother. Jon is a special case, though. His mother is unknown and thus people don't know whether he is half a peasant or not. Were he noble on both sides he certainly would be in a better position claim-wise than if his mother was a whore.

That's a good point re: Jon's mother.  The fact that there are no clear rules does suggest that Jon could win enough support through sheer military strength - and a preference from his half-siblings that he do so - to overcome those lords and knights backing another (reluctant) candidate 

[The Fattest Leech]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

Imagine for a moment that Davos's Skagos visit does not go as smoothly as intended, and - perhaps due to severe Winter storms or some such eventuality - he makes it to Eastwatch by the Sea with Rickon, instead of to White Harbor. Just in time to meet up with the bunch of giants Jon sent around the Wall with their mammoths - There has to be some reason why Martin had them make that detour.

So when Jon wakes up, Davos arrives at Castle Black with 100 giants, Rickon and Shaggydog. Only to learn of Stannis's supposed death - true or fake, it makes no matter either way at that point.

Then, with all hope seemingly lost, and with Jeyne Pool just arrived, Jon learns the truth about Ramsay's precarious position at Winterfell. And at Alysane Mormont's suggestion - and now done with the Watch after they murdered him - he proceeds to march to Winterfell with giants, mammoths, and Rickon, rallying Northern lords to their true liege lord, Rickon Stark.

I see that as a feasible scenario. Especially with Bran orchestrating some omens in his favor.

EDIT

This would work even better if the Skags insist on accompanying Davos and Rickon en masse - to escape Winter. Their (at best) fishing fleet would not be able to make a long voyage to White Harbor. They would just be interested in making it to the mainland - the closest of which is Eastwatch.

And that would add their armed forces to Rickon's army.

I have a very similar scenario in mind as well. Basically, with two books left, this is a good way to start bringing the story characters (and their plots) back together. I totally agree that is why George wrote in the giants and mammoths detour.

Plus, this could bring the estranged Skagos back into the former rule of the North/Starks if they were to follow Rickon back.

Also, I know a lot of posters think Manderly is getting Rickon back just to "control" him, which would really give Wyman the power in the north, but I don't see that being possible when from (possibly) Eastwatch to Castle Black to down to Winterfell there is a young boy with a giant black direwolf in tow followed by giants, mammoths and Skagosi and Davos... hmmm... who could that kid be??? I don't see Wyman being able to make a "claim" to Rickon if he is already out in the open. Plus, I think Wyman knows he is on a suicide mission and he is going out with glory.

Bran should be pretty powerful by then, especially since he was showing stronger than expected powers already, according to BR's training manual.

Plus, I think this bringing together the north before the Others arrive actually plays into the timing George seems to have for Daenerys. Apparently in TWOW...

Spoiler

She will spend most of TWOW with the Dothraki and she and Tyrion won't meet until much later in the book.

The two battles that George says will open TWOW are not against the others (yes, we all know this already), so they are not an immediate threat *yet*. I guess he is still doing some Long Night/Others preparations set up first?

I can't find the same exact article I read it in before, but this article gives almost the same info.

http://ew.com/article/2014/06/26/george-r-r-martin-winds-winter-tease/

 

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Why the aversion to Rickon being the figurehead for whom Jon rallies the North? The Show's twist on this theme to push Sansa into the Northern storyline could easily have been inspired by such an outline provided to them by George.

Imagine for a moment that Davos's Skagos visit does not go as smoothly as intended, and - perhaps due to severe Winter storms or some such eventuality - he makes it to Eastwatch by the Sea with Rickon, instead of to White Harbor. Just in time to meet up with the bunch of giants Jon sent around the Wall with their mammoths - There has to be some reason why Martin had them make that detour.

So when Jon wakes up, Davos arrives at Castle Black with 100 giants, Rickon and Shaggydog. Only to learn of Stannis's supposed death - true or fake, it makes no matter either way at that point.

Then, with all hope seemingly lost, and with Jeyne Pool just arrived, Jon learns the truth about Ramsay's precarious position at Winterfell. And at Alysane Mormont's suggestion - and now done with the Watch after they murdered him - he proceeds to march to Winterfell with giants, mammoths, and Rickon, rallying Northern lords to their true liege lord, Rickon Stark.

I see that as a feasible scenario. Especially with Bran orchestrating some omens in his favor.

EDIT

This would work even better if the Skags insist on accompanying Davos and Rickon en masse - to escape Winter. Their (at best) fishing fleet would not be able to make a long voyage to White Harbor. They would just be interested in making it to the mainland - the closest of which is Eastwatch.

And that would add their armed forces to Rickon's army.

That is a scenario that is cramming to much into too short a time frame. If Rickon were too show up on the mainland early on in TWoW we would have gone to Skagos with Davos in ADwD. George teased at the island for a reason - he wants us to look forward to its introduction in the next book.

The situation at the Wall and the fate of Stannis will be long resolved by the time Davos comes back from Skagos. And I'd not even even assume or expect that they intend to go back to White Harbor. If Robett Glover and perhaps even Wyman's cousin Ser Marlon (who isn't mentioned as being at Winterfell) were to accompany Davos they might have instruction to deliver Rickon to Eastwatch rather than White Harbor. Lord Wyman presumably intends to team up with Stannis at Winterfell and should they prevail there one assumes they would all return to the Wall.

But I don't expect a 'Lord Rickon' plot line to become important in the story simply because I think winter and the Others will overshadow all that by the time Rickon finally arrives. Perhaps Rickon is going to become nominally the new Lord of Winterfell but that's not going to resolve any problems they might have at this point.

4 hours ago, estermonty python said:

That's a good point re: Jon's mother.  The fact that there are no clear rules does suggest that Jon could win enough support through sheer military strength - and a preference from his half-siblings that he do so - to overcome those lords and knights backing another (reluctant) candidate 

I don't think Jon is ever going to be in a good position to actually challenge the claims of other Stark claimants. He is a bastard with an unknown mother and he has joined the NW. That's a fact. Regardless how his resurrection turns out there will be a lot of people in the North who will neither believe the story of his death nor the story of his resurrection should he come back from the dead. They will see this as bad attempt to wiggle out of his vows (assuming he is even making a claim). 

Beric was resurrected multiple times in the Riverlands yet this didn't lead to a broad R'hllor movement or a public and widespread declaration that death doesn't have to be the end in all cases. Only the people who witnessed Beric's and Cat's resurrection (and spent time in their presence) come to believe the story, and those people aren't all that much as of yet. Considering the remoteness of the Wall it is very unlikely that anybody in the North is going to believe the story of Jon's resurrection while it is just hearsay and rumor.

And if Jon's true heritage were to be revealed things would even get more complicated. Lyanna Stark's son by Rhaegar Targaryen has a weaker claim to Winterfell than Eddard Stark's bastard son because he is only a Stark through the female line. Robb's will might have disinherited Sansa Stark Lannister but it did legitimize Robb's 'non-existing' half-brother Jon Snow, not some cousin of his on the Targaryen side of the family tree.

If Jon repeatedly rejected Winterfell while he was still believing he was Ned's son it is out of the question, I think, that he would try to claim Winterfell and the North after he finally realized that he wasn't a Stark, after all.

And with Wyman's plotting and Theon in Stannis' hands we can expect the truth about Bran and Rickon to come out sooner rather than later.

[Free Northman Reborn]

29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a scenario that is cramming to much into too short a time frame. If Rickon were too show up on the mainland early on in TWoW we would have gone to Skagos with Davos in ADwD. George teased at the island for a reason - he wants us to look forward to its introduction in the next book.

The situation at the Wall and the fate of Stannis will be long resolved by the time Davos comes back from Skagos. And I'd not even even assume or expect that they intend to go back to White Harbor. If Robett Glover and perhaps even Wyman's cousin Ser Marlon (who isn't mentioned as being at Winterfell) were to accompany Davos they might have instruction to deliver Rickon to Eastwatch rather than White Harbor. Lord Wyman presumably intends to team up with Stannis at Winterfell and should they prevail there one assumes they would all return to the Wall.

But I don't expect a 'Lord Rickon' plot line to become important in the story simply because I think winter and the Others will overshadow all that by the time Rickon finally arrives. Perhaps Rickon is going to become nominally the new Lord of Winterfell but that's not going to resolve any problems they might have at this point.

I don't think Jon is ever going to be in a good position to actually challenge the claims of other Stark claimants. He is a bastard with an unknown mother and he has joined the NW. That's a fact. Regardless how his resurrection turns out there will be a lot of people in the North who will neither believe the story of his death nor the story of his resurrection should he come back from the dead. They will see this as bad attempt to wiggle out of his vows (assuming he is even making a claim). 

Beric was resurrected multiple times in the Riverlands yet this didn't lead to a broad R'hllor movement or a public and widespread declaration that death doesn't have to be the end in all cases. Only the people who witnessed Beric's and Cat's resurrection (and spent time in their presence) come to believe the story, and those people aren't all that much as of yet. Considering the remoteness of the Wall it is very unlikely that anybody in the North is going to believe the story of Jon's resurrection while it is just hearsay and rumor.

And if Jon's true heritage were to be revealed things would even get more complicated. Lyanna Stark's son by Rhaegar Targaryen has a weaker claim to Winterfell than Eddard Stark's bastard son because he is only a Stark through the female line. Robb's will might have disinherited Sansa Stark Lannister but it did legitimize Robb's 'non-existing' half-brother Jon Snow, not some cousin of his on the Targaryen side of the family tree.

If Jon repeatedly rejected Winterfell while he was still believing he was Ned's son it is out of the question, I think, that he would try to claim Winterfell and the North after he finally realized that he wasn't a Stark, after all.

And with Wyman's plotting and Theon in Stannis' hands we can expect the truth about Bran and Rickon to come out sooner rather than later.

Well, let's look at the timeline.

The Show crammed it all together, so we need not be guided by their timeframe. Instead, imagine Winds of Winter culminating in the Starks taking back Winterfell. So we are not talking about the Battle of Ice - the so-called 7 days of bloody battle - which happens at the start of Winds. We are talking about another battle for Winterfell that happens towards the end of Winds of Winter.

After the Battle of Ice Ramsay is seemingly victorious, although all the Freys have been lost. Then we can imagine that Jon is revived, and spends the middle third of the Book "finding himself" so to speak. He may even head off into the woods, pursued by enemies, as Martin hinted may have been a chapter he was busy writing at one point subsequent to Dance.

During this time we have say two Davos chapters on Skagos, one where he arrives, and one where he has the major encounter with the Skagosi leadership. Then we need not see Davos again until he arrives at Castle Black in dramatic fashion, with giants, mammoths, Skags and Rickon in tow. So that's three Davos chapters covering Rickon's entire return plot. In fact, the third Davos chapter could be replaced by a Jon chapter, to save time. This could be Jon at his lowest point, not knowing what course to take in life anymore. Only for Ghost to prick up his ears at a distant wolf's howl, followed by Rickon and Shaggydog arriving at the head of their Skagosi host, showing Jon his new purpose.

That could happen two thirds into the book. The last third could then consist of maybe 3 more Jon chapters, with perhaps a Davos chapter thrown in for good measure, showing him rallying the North as Rickon's general, on his way South, and taking Winterfell from the Boltons at the end of the Book.

Winds then ends with the Starks in charge of Winterfell again, and Daenerys probably departing Essos on her way to Westeros.

[Lord Varys]

@Free Northman Reborn

'The Winds of Winter' should focus on winter and the Others, and not so much on political troubles. The end of the book should either deal with the fall of the Wall or with the Others finally making their move and attack the Wall.