The Free Cities and the Wars to Come

[rotting sea cow]

@Lord Varys in another thread quickly mentioned that the Free Cities might be drawn into the war of Westeros or have an important role to play. I tend to agree. These are my thoughts.

Bravos is throwing its (financial) weight behind Stannis, going to great lengths to reach him and lend him additional money. For all they know they are supporting the losing side. Surely the Lannister faction angered them but I guess there is more than that. They are putting heavy economic pressure on the whole Westeros (calling out the rest of the loans). It has been speculated that Dany's dragons are making them uneasy and don't see much hope in the Lannister regime. I don't find this argument so compelling. They didn't seem to have much problems with Targaryens dragons for 300 years and Dany is accomplishing what they couldn't in many centuries, almost fully stalling slavery trade and crushing the cities in Slave bay. Are there other possible explanations?

Lys, another big center of slavery (particularly sex slaves). Apparently they are becoming more aggressive due to the short supply of slaves from the east. There is certain foreshadowing that they may clash with Bravos. They took wildings as slaves in Hardhome and they want to come back for more. The Bravossi know that. Would they try to forestall them? Will it come to war?

Pentos. Illyrio is a very important personality, likely the richest of the magisters. He is behind Aegon invasion. He is most likely very nervous about the course of events. Dany is still in Meeren, Volantis is going to war against her and Aegon, Griff and the Golden Company are sailing to Westeros! 10000 men only! Potential disaster looms. Will he try to hire additional sellswords? Get the support of the rest of the Magisters? Pentos on the other hand is likely to be the end point of Dany march of conquest along West Essos.

Volantis is going to war against Dany, sending a huge force (300-500 ships). A force comprised mostly of slaves. They are most likely going to mutiny and Dany will finally have their ships. Furthermore they have Dothraki at the doorsteps and a rebellion looming inside. I have half a mind that Volantis may fall before Dany reach them, but dragons will be needed to break in the Black Wall. Anyway, they are going to burn.

Myr & Tyrosh. Due to their position, they should play a somewhat important role, but we know too little what is going on there to guess in how will play. They are probably along Dany's march of conquest. 

Qohor, We don't know too much what is going on except for some religious conflicts between R'hllor followers and Black Goat ones. Being at the edge of the Dothraki sea makes them vulnerable to the Dothraki. They might be in the fire line of Dany then.

Norvos & Lorath are unlikely to play any role.

I'm happy to read any opinions

[aryagonnakill#2]

I doubt Dany will be conquering every city, it would simply take too much time and get her tied up in too many storylines like Slavers bay did.  I suspect she will head overland and Tyrion will head via sea for Volantis and then possibly Pentos.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

@Lord Varys in another thread quickly mentioned that the Free Cities might be drawn into the war of Westeros or have an important role to play. I tend to agree. These are my thoughts.

Bravos is throwing its (financial) weight behind Stannis, going to great lengths to reach him and lend him additional money. For all they know they are supporting the losing side. Surely the Lannister faction angered them but I guess there is more than that. They are putting heavy economic pressure on the whole Westeros (calling out the rest of the loans). It has been speculated that Dany's dragons are making them uneasy and don't see much hope in the Lannister regime. I don't find this argument so compelling. They didn't seem to have much problems with Targaryens dragons for 300 years and Dany is accomplishing what they couldn't in many centuries, almost fully stalling slavery trade and crushing the cities in Slave bay. Are there other possible explanations?

It is true that the Braavosi seemed to have had no problems with the Targaryen dragons while they were around and that they should be in favor of Dany's anti-slavery politics.

However, the Iron Bank presumably is about money, and the Iron Throne owes the Iron Bank a lot of money they can only get back through Stannis. Daenerys doesn't need a loan from the Iron Bank (especially not if she ends up seizing all the wealth of Meereen and Yunkai) nor is she likely to accept Robert's, Joffrey's, and Tommen's debts as her own.

We have yet to find out how powerful the Iron Bank is in Braavos but it seems pretty likely that the House of Black and White is a major shareholder/strongly connected to the Iron Bank, enabling the Iron Bank to get their due even against formidable enemies.

If the Iron Bank commits to Stannis Braavos might be forced to oppose Daenerys simply by default. And if there are dragons of conquest flying across the skies of Essos again the Braavosi most likely won't be all that happy.

3 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Lys, another big center of slavery (particularly sex slaves). Apparently they are becoming more aggressive due to the short supply of slaves from the east. There is certain foreshadowing that they may clash with Bravos. They took wildings as slaves in Hardhome and they want to come back for more. The Bravossi know that. Would they try to forestall them? Will it come to war?

Lys is very unlikely to be able to survive a war with Braavos. Braavos is the most powerful Free City, and they have the largest fleet. The Braavosi war fleet could in a devastating manner throughout a coming war if the Sealord himself would strike a deal with a pretender in Westeros, most likely Stannis.

3 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Pentos. Illyrio is a very important personality, likely the richest of the magisters. He is behind Aegon invasion. He is most likely very nervous about the course of events. Dany is still in Meeren, Volantis is going to war against her and Aegon, Griff and the Golden Company are sailing to Westeros! 10000 men only! Potential disaster looms. Will he try to hire additional sellswords? Get the support of the rest of the Magisters? Pentos on the other hand is likely to be the end point of Dany march of conquest along West Essos.

Illyrio has already announced in ADwD he will join Aegon and the gang in Westeros eventually. He most likely is going to show it in KL to attend Aegon's coronation there, probably bringing additional sellswords, men-at-arms, and possibly even some ships. However, since TWoIaF we know that the Pentoshi don't have any military to speak of, allowing them only to buy the allegiance of sellswords. They cannot commit any troops of their own to any pretender. That most likely means that Pentos is going to fall quickly to Dany's Dothraki (who most likely simply march there if she ends up uniting all the khalasars under her rule).

3 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Volantis is going to war against Dany, sending a huge force (300-500 ships). A force comprised mostly of slaves. They are most likely going to mutiny and Dany will finally have their ships. Furthermore they have Dothraki at the doorsteps and a rebellion looming inside. I have half a mind that Volantis may fall before Dany reach them, but dragons will be needed to break in the Black Wall. Anyway, they are going to burn.

The Volantene slave soldiers are going to join Dany, and the new administration of Volantis (not unlikely with the Widow of the Waterfront as one of the new triarchs) is going to support her in her wars if she plays her cards right (i.e. isn't going to sack the city). Benerro is also going to ensure that there is going to be revolution in Volantis after it becomes known that the tiger soldiers in Slaver's Bay have joined Daenerys.

3 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Myr & Tyrosh. Due to their position, they should play a somewhat important role, but we know too little what is going on there to guess in how will play. They are probably along Dany's march of conquest.

Dany's Dothraki can take Myr, and she can sack Tyrosh on her journey to Westeros. The same goes for Lys which is out of the reach of the Dothraki. With Dany becoming a dragonrider she can rather quickly travel from her naval armada to her Dothraki troops on land and coordinate the attacks.

3 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Qohor, We don't know too much what is going on except for some religious conflicts between R'hllor followers and Black Goat ones. Being at the edge of the Dothraki sea makes them vulnerable to the Dothraki. They might be in the fire line of Dany then.

Norvos & Lorath are unlikely to play any role.

Lorath excluded (nobody cares about Lorath) I think both cities could be sacked by Dany's Dothraki. If Mellario of Norvos is slain during such an attack this could actually put more bad blood between Arianne and Daenerys.

The amount of military power Dany could have if she actually ends up uniting all the Dothraki could actually enabled to unite/conquer all Essos west of the Bones. We don't have to see all that, it is enough to hear it. If the khalasars all follow one leader nothing could stand against them. And I'm actually rather inclined to believe that Dany isn't done with Qarth, Xaro, and the Pureborn. They joined the war against her and they have to pay. Qarth may be destroyed.

Depending how long it takes Dany to return to Slaver's Bay, Tyrion and her people there might continue conquering lands in her name to keep her people occupied. After the Yunkish allies are defeated and the Volantenes have joined them they should turn against Yunkai itself and destroy it, continuing with Mantarys, Tolos, Bhorash. With the Ironborn, Volantene, and Ghiscari ships at their disposal they could also conquer New Ghis and Ghaen.

We don't need to get details on all those campaigns, but keeping people occupied and focused on goals will be crucial while Dany is away and they have no idea what to do.

[LindsayLohan]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is true that the Braavosi seemed to have had no problems with the Targaryen dragons while they were around and that they should be in favor of Dany's anti-slavery politics.

However, the Iron Bank presumably is about money, and the Iron Throne owes the Iron Bank a lot of money they can only get back through Stannis. Daenerys doesn't need a loan from the Iron Bank (especially not if she ends up seizing all the wealth of Meereen and Yunkai) nor is she likely to accept Robert's, Joffrey's, and Tommen's debts as her own.

We have yet to find out how powerful the Iron Bank is in Braavos but it seems pretty likely that the House of Black and White is a major shareholder/strongly connected to the Iron Bank, enabling the Iron Bank to get their due even against formidable enemies.

If the Iron Bank commits to Stannis Braavos might be forced to oppose Daenerys simply by default. And if there are dragons of conquest flying across the skies of Essos again the Braavosi most likely won't be all that happy.

Lys is very unlikely to be able to survive a war with Braavos. Braavos is the most powerful Free City, and they have the largest fleet. The Braavosi war fleet could in a devastating manner throughout a coming war if the Sealord himself would strike a deal with a pretender in Westeros, most likely Stannis.

Illyrio has already announced in ADwD he will join Aegon and the gang in Westeros eventually. He most likely is going to show it in KL to attend Aegon's coronation there, probably bringing additional sellswords, men-at-arms, and possibly even some ships. However, since TWoIaF we know that the Pentoshi don't have any military to speak of, allowing them only to buy the allegiance of sellswords. They cannot commit any troops of their own to any pretender. That most likely means that Pentos is going to fall quickly to Dany's Dothraki (who most likely simply march there if she ends up uniting all the khalasars under her rule).

The Volantene slave soldiers are going to join Dany, and the new administration of Volantis (not unlikely with the Widow of the Waterfront as one of the new triarchs) is going to support her in her wars if she plays her cards right (i.e. isn't going to sack the city). Benerro is also going to ensure that there is going to be revolution in Volantis after it becomes known that the tiger soldiers in Slaver's Bay have joined Daenerys.

Dany's Dothraki can take Myr, and she can sack Tyrosh on her journey to Westeros. The same goes for Lys which is out of the reach of the Dothraki. With Dany becoming a dragonrider she can rather quickly travel from her naval armada to her Dothraki troops on land and coordinate the attacks.

Lorath excluded (nobody cares about Lorath) I think both cities could be sacked by Dany's Dothraki. If Mellario of Norvos is slain during such an attack this could actually put more bad blood between Arianne and Daenerys.

The amount of military power Dany could have if she actually ends up uniting all the Dothraki could actually enabled to unite/conquer all Essos west of the Bones. We don't have to see all that, it is enough to hear it. If the khalasars all follow one leader nothing could stand against them. And I'm actually rather inclined to believe that Dany isn't done with Qarth, Xaro, and the Pureborn. They joined the war against her and they have to pay. Qarth may be destroyed.

Depending how long it takes Dany to return to Slaver's Bay, Tyrion and her people there might continue conquering lands in her name to keep her people occupied. After the Yunkish allies are defeated and the Volantenes have joined them they should turn against Yunkai itself and destroy it, continuing with Mantarys, Tolos, Bhorash. With the Ironborn, Volantene, and Ghiscari ships at their disposal they could also conquer New Ghis and Ghaen.

We don't need to get details on all those campaigns, but keeping people occupied and focused on goals will be crucial while Dany is away and they have no idea what to do.

There's a lot of "could" and not a lot of "would" in this post.  As in, why would she sack Pentos, Tyrosh, or Norvos?  These are free cities, not militarily aligned against her, and her childhood benefactor is Pentoshi.  She needs to make her way to Westeros, and destroying all the random Free Cities of Essos would fracture her army and waste years.

[black_hart]

"What I want," said the Tattered Prince, "is Pentos."

 

I guess, this will come up again.

[Lord Varys]

57 minutes ago, LindsayLohan said:

There's a lot of "could" and not a lot of "would" in this post.  As in, why would she sack Pentos, Tyrosh, or Norvos?  These are free cities, not militarily aligned against her, and her childhood benefactor is Pentoshi.  She needs to make her way to Westeros, and destroying all the random Free Cities of Essos would fracture her army and waste years.

Selmy already promised Pentos to the Tattered Prince. Volantis already expects Dany to help free the slaves there, and Lys, Tyrosh, and Myr are all slaver cities, too. Norvos and Qohor have never wronged Daenerys, true, but if she ends up becoming the god-empress of the Dothraki she might threw a few bones at their feet.

[rotting sea cow]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is true that the Braavosi seemed to have had no problems with the Targaryen dragons while they were around and that they should be in favor of Dany's anti-slavery politics.

However, the Iron Bank presumably is about money, and the Iron Throne owes the Iron Bank a lot of money they can only get back through Stannis. Daenerys doesn't need a loan from the Iron Bank (especially not if she ends up seizing all the wealth of Meereen and Yunkai) nor is she likely to accept Robert's, Joffrey's, and Tommen's debts as her own.

We have yet to find out how powerful the Iron Bank is in Braavos but it seems pretty likely that the House of Black and White is a major shareholder/strongly connected to the Iron Bank, enabling the Iron Bank to get their due even against formidable enemies.

If the Iron Bank commits to Stannis Braavos might be forced to oppose Daenerys simply by default. And if there are dragons of conquest flying across the skies of Essos again the Braavosi most likely won't be all that happy.

It is true that the Iron Throne owes a lot of money to the IB, but it's still a minority lender in comparison to Casterly Rock and presumably this debt doesn't threat the finances of the IB. That's why I guess that there might be more in the  support to a seemingly losing partner. Now, they have thrown their weight behind Stannis, they would need to support him to the bitter end, so you might be right it might come to swords between Braavos and any other pretender. BTW, there are elections for a new Sealord, right?

 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Lys is very unlikely to be able to survive a war with Braavos. Braavos is the most powerful Free City, and they have the largest fleet. The Braavosi war fleet could in a devastating manner throughout a coming war if the Sealord himself would strike a deal with a pretender in Westeros, most likely Stannis.
 

That's for sure. What I'm saying is if the Lysene come in force to take lot of slaves among the Free Folk and the Braavosi try to stop them, it might come to war. Maybe Myr and Tyrosh will join on the Lys side. If the Lysene succeed with their massive slavery operation, suddenly lots of Free Folk will end in the southwest of Essos and maybe tell Dany about the problems in the North once she arrives there. 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The amount of military power Dany could have if she actually ends up uniting all the Dothraki could actually enabled to unite/conquer all Essos west of the Bones. We don't have to see all that, it is enough to hear it. If the khalasars all follow one leader nothing could stand against them. And I'm actually rather inclined to believe that Dany isn't done with Qarth, Xaro, and the Pureborn. They joined the war against her and they have to pay. Qarth may be destroyed.

 Yeah, Qarth is an unfinished chapter for Dany. We will see whether it can be pulled out.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Depending how long it takes Dany to return to Slaver's Bay, Tyrion and her people there might continue conquering lands in her name to keep her people occupied. After the Yunkish allies are defeated and the Volantenes have joined them they should turn against Yunkai itself and destroy it, continuing with Mantarys, Tolos, Bhorash. With the Ironborn, Volantene, and Ghiscari ships at their disposal they could also conquer New Ghis and Ghaen.

We don't need to get details on all those campaigns, but keeping people occupied and focused on goals will be crucial while Dany is away and they have no idea what to do.

Indeed, Dany will need quite a bit of time to unite all khalasars. In the meantime the people in Meeren needs to be occupied. Certainly Yunkai will be destroyed and maybe these others cities too.

Now, who will lead the newly acquired fleet? I still have a tiny hope that Victarion will survive, but most likely he will not.  Barristan and Tyrion are not seamen. Maybe Aurane Waters shows up.

[rotting sea cow]

BTW, @bemused remind me in the CB thread that the Braavosi should be aware of the difficulties north of the Wall, through the wildings captured by that Lysene ship. Maybe there is some concern  regarding the Long Night among the Braavosi too and decided to "help" those who are clearly showing commitment to the protection of the Wall (Jon & Stannis chiefly)

[Lord Vance II]

With the exception of Bravos and maybe Pentos, I expect the Free Cities to roll over for Dany once word gets back about what happened to the Volantine fleet. Better to change your way of life than lose your life.  And I think it's very important for her to accept their surrenders as bloodlessly as possible. As I always bring up in discussions of Dany going to Westeros, she does not have the same appeal to peasants who are as free as they'll ever be. The last thing she needs is the additional bad PR of torching the Free Cities. If her camp is planning to give Pentos to the Tattered Prince, obviously that could be a lot messier. 

I honestly have no idea what Braavos will do. As @rotting sea cow said, they likely know at least that something bad is happening at the wall, and besides the North they're most vulnerable (not to the Others, but more to the super winter that's coming.) They also seem like they should be all for Dany, but who knows. 

[rotting sea cow]

3 hours ago, Lord Vance II said:

With the exception of Bravos and maybe Pentos, I expect the Free Cities to roll over for Dany once word gets back about what happened to the Volantine fleet. Better to change your way of life than lose your life.  And I think it's very important for her to accept their surrenders as bloodlessly as possible. As I always bring up in discussions of Dany going to Westeros, she does not have the same appeal to peasants who are as free as they'll ever be. The last thing she needs is the additional bad PR of torching the Free Cities. If her camp is planning to give Pentos to the Tattered Prince, obviously that could be a lot messier.

I don't know exactly how Dany 'March of Conquest' will play out (if ever goes that way). It is clear that at least Volantis and Pentos are in the line of fire, and probably anything between. However, I think that Dany will not come to Westeros as a savior. This role was stolen by Aegon, who will also steal any hidden Targaryen loyalist.

No, Daenerys will come with fire and blood, leading a huge army of savage Dothraki, sellswords, Unsullied, Ironborn and freedmen. And dragons, do not forget the dragons. She will be counseled by that hated twisted little demon monkey (aka Tyrion kin- and kingslayer) and the zealots of R'hllor. She will have literally no support in Westeros but nobody will be able to stand against her. She will be feared and hated. Only when she destroys Euron and heads north to save the World of the existential threat of the Others, people may see her under a different light.

[Lord Vance II]

8 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

No, Daenerys will come with fire and blood, leading a huge army of savage Dothraki, sellswords, Unsullied, Ironborn and freedmen. And dragons, do not forget the dragons

You know that, and I know that, but apparently most see her coming as some messiah. 

But if that was what she was going for, showing restraint and mercy to the Free Cities IF they surrendered would go a long way. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Lynesse Hightower was wed to Jorah, but she abandoned him for a Lysene merchant prince named Tregar Ormollen. She became Tregar’s chief concubine and apparently rules his house. As the Ironmen invaded the Shield Islands and began raiding the Arbor, along the coast, and up the Mander, Lord Leyton Hightower was ordered by House Tyrell to see to his own defenses. He was reportedly locked atop his tower with the Mad Maid, where he had remained for over a decade, consulting books of spells. His heir Baelor began building ships, two more sons were tending to the defense of Oldtown and training recruits, and his youngest son was traveling to Lys to hire sellsails and to enlist the aid of Tregar Ormollen. First, we have the Lys connection with Varys. This by itself does not amount to much, but, Lys is one of the Three Daughters along with Tyrosh and Myr. The Three Daughters, of course aided the greens in the Dance of the Dragons. As our saga developed we learned of a trade war between Lys and Tyrosh. Myr was about to join Tyrosh, but curiously, the Archon of Tyrosh, the brother of the man who had been noted at the betrothal of Daenerys to Drogo, which had been brokered by Illyrio, offered terms to Lys to end the war. This appeared to be because the Golden Company, shockingly, had just broken its contract to fight for Myr. Could Illyrio be brokering a new alliance of the Three Daughters?

[Lord Varys]

@Lost Melnibonean

Considering that the Hightowers are facing the greatest threat in their history in Euron, and considering that Daenerys Targaryen is freeing the slaves, there is small chance that the Lyseni will commit themselves to helping the Hightowers, Tregar Ormollen or not. Salla lost a lot of his ships. Does Lys have enough war fleets on its own to challenge the King of the Ironborn?

If Dany comes west with fire and sword to end slavery in the Three Daughters there is a small chance that they might to prevent that by forming a new alliance. But for that they would have to have good enough information what's coming for them in advance. If Dany were to unite the Dothraki khalasars at Vaes Dothrak and then deploy dozens of khalasars to all the cities the Dothraki can reach overland then the first Myr might see of this new danger is an army of Dothraki at its doorstep - and the same goes for Qohor, Norvos, Volantis, and Pentos.

And with the fleet of Volantis, the Ironborn, the Ghiscari, and the Qartheen Dany should have enough naval strength to take on Lys and Tyrosh.

On 30.12.2016 at 11:01 AM, rotting sea cow said:

It is true that the Iron Throne owes a lot of money to the IB, but it's still a minority lender in comparison to Casterly Rock and presumably this debt doesn't threat the finances of the IB. That's why I guess that there might be more in the  support to a seemingly losing partner. Now, they have thrown their weight behind Stannis, they would need to support him to the bitter end, so you might be right it might come to swords between Braavos and any other pretender. BTW, there are elections for a new Sealord, right?

Yeah, and one assumes that this new election will roughly coincide with the arrival of Tycho Nestoris, Justin Massey, and possibly even Axell, Selyse, and Shireen (I'd not trust Justin Massey with collecting a fortune of gold).

Depending what information the new Sealord has about world politics at this point we might see Braavos itself entering the war in Westeros.

On 30.12.2016 at 11:01 AM, rotting sea cow said:

That's for sure. What I'm saying is if the Lysene come in force to take lot of slaves among the Free Folk and the Braavosi try to stop them, it might come to war. Maybe Myr and Tyrosh will join on the Lys side. If the Lysene succeed with their massive slavery operation, suddenly lots of Free Folk will end in the southwest of Essos and maybe tell Dany about the problems in the North once she arrives there.

That is certainly a possibility. However, we don't know whether the Braavosi care all that much about the wildlings. They got interested because the Lysene ship lumped into their harbor.

On 30.12.2016 at 11:01 AM, rotting sea cow said:

 Yeah, Qarth is an unfinished chapter for Dany. We will see whether it can be pulled out.

I'd not be surprised if she went there first with her new Dothraki. Xaro really pissed her off in ADwD, and she is backtracking now. And how better to neutralize the danger she is facing from the warlocks than by destroying them? Not to mention that she could finally unite with a physical Quaithe there.

On 30.12.2016 at 11:01 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Indeed, Dany will need quite a bit of time to unite all khalasars. In the meantime the people in Meeren needs to be occupied. Certainly Yunkai will be destroyed and maybe these others cities too.

That's my best guess if Tyrion and the others can keep the movement together without Dany.

On 30.12.2016 at 11:01 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Now, who will lead the newly acquired fleet? I still have a tiny hope that Victarion will survive, but most likely he will not.  Barristan and Tyrion are not seamen. Maybe Aurane Waters shows up.

Oh, there are more than enough capable seamen among the Ironborn. Victarion isn't needed, and they would most likely put one of the Volantene slave soldiers in charge of the fleet.

[Free Northman Reborn]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@Lost Melnibonean

Considering that the Hightowers are facing the greatest threat in their history in Euron, and considering that Daenerys Targaryen is freeing the slaves, there is small chance that the Lyseni will commit themselves to helping the Hightowers, Tregar Ormollen or not. Salla lost a lot of his ships. Does Lys have enough war fleets on its own to challenge the King of the Ironborn?

If Dany comes west with fire and sword to end slavery in the Three Daughters there is a small chance that they might to prevent that by forming a new alliance. But for that they would have to have good enough information what's coming for them in advance. If Dany were to unite the Dothraki khalasars at Vaes Dothrak and then deploy dozens of khalasars to all the cities the Dothraki can reach overland then the first Myr might see of this new danger is an army of Dothraki at its doorstep - and the same goes for Qohor, Norvos, Volantis, and Pentos.

And with the fleet of Volantis, the Ironborn, the Ghiscari, and the Qartheen Dany should have enough naval strength to take on Lys and Tyrosh.

Yeah, and one assumes that this new election will roughly coincide with the arrival of Tycho Nestoris, Justin Massey, and possibly even Axell, Selyse, and Shireen (I'd not trust Justin Massey with collecting a fortune of gold).

Depending what information the new Sealord has about world politics at this point we might see Braavos itself entering the war in Westeros.

That is certainly a possibility. However, we don't know whether the Braavosi care all that much about the wildlings. They got interested because the Lysene ship lumped into their harbor.

I'd not be surprised if she went there first with her new Dothraki. Xaro really pissed her off in ADwD, and she is backtracking now. And how better to neutralize the danger she is facing from the warlocks than by destroying them? Not to mention that she could finally unite with a physical Quaithe there.

That's my best guess if Tyrion and the others can keep the movement together without Dany.

Oh, there are more than enough capable seamen among the Ironborn. Victarion isn't needed, and they would most likely put one of the Volantene slave soldiers in charge of the fleet.

Lord Varys

I can't but notice - with a bit of bemusement - how you are plotting this course for Daenerys in the next book to engage miliatarily, in no paritular order, the Dothariki, the Ironborn, the cities of Slavers Bay and additionally, most of the Free Cities, over most of central, southern and western Essos. Thousands of miles of territory.

Meanwhile on a seperate thread you adamantly believe that there is not enough time in this same book for Rickon to make it from Skagos to Castle Black - practically a mere evening stroll compared to all of the territory Daenerys is supposed to cover - and for Jon to mobilize the North and take Winterfell at Rickon's side.

Apparently the book is quite long enough for the former, but far too short for the latter.

I guess it all really does depend on what one hopes the story will be, rather than what is purely logical, doesn't it.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Lord Varys

I can't but notice - with a bit of bemusement - how you are plotting this course for Daenerys in the next book to engage miliatarily, in no paritular order, the Dothariki, the Ironborn, the cities of Slavers Bay and additionally, most of the Free Cities, over most of central, southern and western Essos. Thousands of miles of territory.

Meanwhile on a seperate thread you adamantly believe that there is not enough time in this same book for Rickon to make it from Skagos to Castle Black - practically a mere evening stroll compared to all of the territory Daenerys is supposed to cover - and for Jon to mobilize the North and take Winterfell at Rickon's side.

Apparently the book is quite long enough for the former, but far too short for the latter.

I guess it all really does depend on what one hopes the story will be, rather than what is purely logical, doesn't it.

Oh, I never said that this all has to play out and be completed in TWoW. I'm realistic about the size of this series and the pace in which the story progresses. I've gone on record many times saying that Daenerys is not going to arrive in Westeros in the next book. Perhaps we'll see Aegon's conquest of the Iron Throne and his coronation in the next book.

In addition, we have to keep in mind George's remark a few years ago that Tyrion and Dany are not going to meet all that soon in TWoW, suggesting that Dany is going to spend quite some time in the Dothraki Sea and Tyrion is going to do stuff elsewhere (possibly in or near Slaver's Bay, punishing the people who waged a war against Daenerys).

However, you have to keep in mind that Dany conquering and destroying cities doesn't have to be covered by chapters in detail. We won't get a dozen of new Dothraki POV characters, thus the news of Dany's campaigns all across Essos could reach the reader in a similar fashion as we learned about Robb's successes in ACoK - via messengers, rumors, and reports. In addition, Dany is a dragonrider now and Drogon should allow her to oversee the advances and actions of many of her armies from above.

I assume that Dany would be rather interested in personally overseeing the destruction of Qarth - but the same doesn't go for, say, the conquest of Qohor and Norvos.

The fact that Dany has no returned to the Dothraki strongly suggests that there will be campaigns in Essos because both they and Daenerys have very much involved themselves in affairs on that continent. Daenerys Targaryen has still be told and convinced that her fate awaits her in Westeros. And that's not going to be easy if she is in the Dothraki Sea.

[rotting sea cow]

31 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@Lost Melnibonean

Considering that the Hightowers are facing the greatest threat in their history in Euron, and considering that Daenerys Targaryen is freeing the slaves, there is small chance that the Lyseni will commit themselves to helping the Hightowers, Tregar Ormollen or not. Salla lost a lot of his ships. Does Lys have enough war fleets on its own to challenge the King of the Ironborn?

I'd guess that Lys is expecting Volantis to succeed in overthrowing Daenerys. I also expect that Lys has enough seapower to defeat the ironborn with conventional power and also deploy in a second theater. They are likely second to Braavos in the seafaring capabilities in the narrow sea. 

39 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is certainly a possibility. However, we don't know whether the Braavosi care all that much about the wildlings. They got interested because the Lysene ship lumped into their harbor.

This is speculation from my part, but I guess that while the Braavosi cannot do much to end slavery south of the Narrow Sea (and beyond) a different thing for them is a massive slavery operation near their waters. A couple of slaver ships is one thing, a fleet another.

 

 

 

[rotting sea cow]

9 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Lynesse Hightower was wed to Jorah, but she abandoned him for a Lysene merchant prince named Tregar Ormollen. She became Tregar’s chief concubine and apparently rules his house. As the Ironmen invaded the Shield Islands and began raiding the Arbor, along the coast, and up the Mander, Lord Leyton Hightower was ordered by House Tyrell to see to his own defenses. He was reportedly locked atop his tower with the Mad Maid, where he had remained for over a decade, consulting books of spells. His heir Baelor began building ships, two more sons were tending to the defense of Oldtown and training recruits, and his youngest son was traveling to Lys to hire sellsails and to enlist the aid of Tregar Ormollen. First, we have the Lys connection with Varys. This by itself does not amount to much, but, Lys is one of the Three Daughters along with Tyrosh and Myr. The Three Daughters, of course aided the greens in the Dance of the Dragons.

Thanks for reminding me these passages. Indeed the Hightower are going to return with some Lysene sellsails, but what will they find? The Redwyne fleet destroyed and Oldtown burned? and Euron raising some terrific powers? They are then done, and if my speculation becomes true that Lys is going to war against Braavos (possibly with the support of Myr and Tyrosh) then they would become an easy fruit for Dany once she marches West.

I kind of find of a necessity that something along these lines will happen in parallel as Dany assembly her armies. Otherwise, her march will be slowed in the conquest of every city that try to stop her.

9 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

 As our saga developed we learned of a trade war between Lys and Tyrosh. Myr was about to join Tyrosh, but curiously, the Archon of Tyrosh, the brother of the man who had been noted at the betrothal of Daenerys to Drogo, which had been brokered by Illyrio, offered terms to Lys to end the war. This appeared to be because the Golden Company, shockingly, had just broken its contract to fight for Myr. Could Illyrio be brokering a new alliance of the Three Daughters?

This is interesting. We know that Illyrio is also a broker of the politics of another Free City

Quote

Griff muttered. “What is that about? Nyessos and Malaquo? Illyrio has paid Triarch Nyessos enough to own him eight times over.”

- Tyrion, aDwD

It must have been a huge sum of gold as Nyessos is an elephant and we can assume that triarchs belonging to the merchant class must be  very rich. Why is Illyrio paying Nyessos?

 

[Lord Vance II]

Honestly, why does Dany even have to deal with all of Essos before heading west? I understand what @Lord Varys is saying about Dany and Tyrion, but if her goal is to take the 7 kingdoms it doesn't make any sense to sweep the whole continent. The ones along the southern coast, sure, they're on the way and she'll need money.

But why worry about Norvos and Qohor and those type? Every campaign is men, materiel and time spent. Even if she had the men to send an army at all places simultaneously, it would take months, even years to march to the edges of the continent, conduct their wars, and reconcentrate on the Narrow sea. Plus I'm sure Tyrion could tell her about the Targaryan dragons that were killed in battles and sieges. Her's aren't even fully grown. 

I suppose if she truly does have a monster number of Dothraki she could just dispatch them to take care of it and not help. 

The clocks ticking in the North. 

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

Honestly, why does Dany even have to deal with all of Essos before heading west? I understand what @Lord Varys is saying about Dany and Tyrion, but if her goal is to take the 7 kingdoms it doesn't make any sense to sweep the whole continent. The ones along the southern coast, sure, they're on the way and she'll need money.

But why worry about Norvos and Qohor and those type? Every campaign is men, materiel and time spent. Even if she had the men to send an army at all places simultaneously, it would take months, even years to march to the edges of the continent, conduct their wars, and reconcentrate on the Narrow sea. Plus I'm sure Tyrion could tell her about the Targaryan dragons that were killed in battles and sieges. Her's aren't even fully grown. 

I suppose if she truly does have a monster number of Dothraki she could just dispatch them to take care of it and not help. 

The clocks ticking in the North. 

But the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros aren't (necessarily) Daenerys Targaryen's priorities right now. She was born on Dragonstone but has never set a foot on the mainland and when she last discussed a voyage to Westeros she postponed that indefinitely. And in her last chapter she decided to backtrack to the Dothraki. That's not the road to Westeros. And even Marwyn and Moqorro are not likely to quickly reach her there.

We also don't know how powerful the Dothraki are right now if they were united under a single ruler. If there are tens of millions of Dothraki warriors then nothing west of the Bones could stand against them. And Daenerys could certainly risk the lives of tens of thousands of her devoted followers in such a setting because she can afford losing as many men.

We have to ask ourselves what ideology will help Dany to unite the Dothraki. The prophecy of the stallion that mounts the world will play a role as well as Drogon, that much is clear, I think (the best hint in that direction was in TWoIaF where it became clear that the Dothraki have a healthy fear/respect of dragons), but going to Westeros isn't exactly what this prophecy foretells. A good portion of the Dothraki will most likely eventually accompany Dany to Westeros but the majority might ride to the four corners of the continent to subdue/free the peoples of Essos in her name.

And you also have to keep in mind how the story would unfold when Dany came pretty quickly to Westeros now. What's then the point of Euron and Aegon? Could Euron become a huge threat in just 3-5 chapters? Can Aegon forge alliances strong enough to try to challenge Dany upon her return?

And what about the Others? The Wall is still standing. If Dany came while it still stands it most likely would never fall.

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros aren't (necessarily) Daenerys Targaryen's priorities right now. She was born on Dragonstone but has never set a foot on the mainland and when she last discussed a voyage to Westeros she postponed that indefinitely. And in her last chapter she decided to backtrack to the Dothraki. That's not the road to Westeros. And even Marwyn and Moqorro are not likely to quickly reach her there.

We also don't know how powerful the Dothraki are right now if they were united under a single ruler. If there are tens of millions of Dothraki warriors then nothing west of the Bones could stand against them. And Daenerys could certainly risk the lives of tens of thousands of her devoted followers in such a setting because she can afford losing as many men.

We have to ask ourselves what ideology will help Dany to unite the Dothraki. The prophecy of the stallion that mounts the world will play a role as well as Drogon, that much is clear, I think (the best hint in that direction was in TWoIaF where it became clear that the Dothraki have a healthy fear/respect of dragons), but going to Westeros isn't exactly what this prophecy foretells. A good portion of the Dothraki will most likely eventually accompany Dany to Westeros but the majority might ride to the four corners of the continent to subdue/free the peoples of Essos in her name.

And you also have to keep in mind how the story would unfold when Dany came pretty quickly to Westeros now. What's then the point of Euron and Aegon? Could Euron become a huge threat in just 3-5 chapters? Can Aegon forge alliances strong enough to try to challenge Dany upon her return?

And what about the Others? The Wall is still standing. If Dany came while it still stands it most likely would never fall.

I think we might have seen the answer in the show...

Second of Three Fires

I suspect Daenerys might rely on shock and awe rather than ideology.