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NFL Week 17: Playoffs for Some, Miniature Improvement in Draft Picks for Others!


Maithanet

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So a few weeks ago people were talking about what percentage of Bortles touchdowns are garbage time touchdowns.  It is difficult to determine this, but I decided to give it my best shot, based on the stats from cbssports.

I'm comparing three stats:  1st half passing, 4th quarter passing when within 1 score, 4th quarter passing when not within 1 score.  Now, this isn't a perfect measure of garbage time, but it will do.

Blake Bortles career stats 

1st half - 23 tds, 24 ints.  6.3 y/a

4th quarter, within 7 points - 7 tds, 8 ints, 4.9 y/a

4th quarter, not within 7 - 22 tds, 11 ints, 8.0 y/a

So yeah, that is astonishingly bad.  In both non-garbage time measures, he has more ints than picks.  The worst of all has to be the 4.9 y/a in the fourth quarter of close games.  In addition, approximately 70% of his 4th quarter passes have been in games that were no within 7 points. 

But when garbage time starts, Bortles is a whole new man.  2 to 1 tds to picks is a solid ratio, better than Manning, Palmer, Rivers, Flacco, Wilson, WInston, Newton, etc.  8.0 y/a would be 5th in the league, just ahead of Drew Brees.  He isn't quite a garbage time hall of famer, but he could sneak into the pro bowl in a weak year with that kind of performance. 

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4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

So a few weeks ago people were talking about what percentage of Bortles touchdowns are garbage time touchdowns.  It is difficult to determine this, but I decided to give it my best shot, based on the stats from cbssports.

I'm comparing three stats:  1st half passing, 4th quarter passing when within 1 score, 4th quarter passing when not within 1 score.  Now, this isn't a perfect measure of garbage time, but it will do.

Blake Bortles career stats 

1st half - 23 tds, 24 ints.  6.3 y/a

4th quarter, within 7 points - 7 tds, 8 ints, 4.9 y/a

4th quarter, not within 7 - 22 tds, 11 ints, 8.0 y/a

So yeah, that is astonishingly bad.  In both non-garbage time measures, he has more ints than picks.  The worst of all has to be the 4.9 y/a in the fourth quarter of close games.  In addition, approximately 70% of his 4th quarter passes have been in games that were no within 7 points. 

But when garbage time starts, Bortles is a whole new man.  2 to 1 tds to picks is a solid ratio, better than Manning, Palmer, Rivers, Flacco, Wilson, WInston, Newton, etc.  8.0 y/a would be 5th in the league, just ahead of Drew Brees.  He isn't quite a garbage time hall of famer, but he could sneak into the pro bowl in a weak year with that kind of performance. 

Those stats are amazing. If you get the chance, you should also break out 1st quarter from 2nd quarter in first half. I'd imagine like 20 of those 23 TDs came in the 2nd quarter and the Jags already down 10+ points. It's all part of the larger Bortles theme of never playing well until his team is already fucked.

Even more impressively  Bortles ability in garbage time extends beyond individual games but applies to seasons as well. He just had the best game of the season last week long after it had any chance of mattering. The man is a garbage time savant. 

1 hour ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Perfect. 

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4 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Those stats are amazing. If you get the chance, you should also break out 1st quarter from 2nd quarter in first half. I'd imagine like 20 of those 23 TDs came in the 2nd quarter and the Jags already down 10+ points. It's all part of the larger Bortles theme of never playing well until his team is already fucked.

Just looking at touchdowns/ints, his first quarter stats are definitely worse than second quarter.

1st quarter:  6 tds, 9 ints

2nd quarter:  17 tds, 14 ints. 

What is amazing about this, is that is three seasons of work.  In three seasons, he has six first quarter touchdowns.  That's almost 12 games worth of football! 

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11 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

 Awesome thread title as well Maith. Bang up job on all counts. Would +1 again. 

Thanks!  I was trying to be clever, and I figured a 20 year old Simpsons reference would definitely do the trick!

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At the same point in his career that Rex Ryan is today, Tom Landry was 44-61-5. I am with you in the belief that coaches are fired far too soon in the NFL in these days. The teams I am most impressed with about there coaches today is the Bengals, Steelers, and even my Cowboys. All of them are allowing bumps in the road for the sake of consistency, and for the most part it all seems to be working out better than the coaching carousel.  

You made the exact same point two years ago after Ryan was fired by the Jets.  And I made the same response:

Richie Kottite's record after 5 seasons (39-41) is eeily similar to Ryan's after 5 seasons (42-38) ... and its all better than Tom Landry's after 5 seasons (18-46-4).

Yes, by firing Rex Ryan, you MAY BE firing the next Tom Landry... but you also may be firing the next Rich Kotite.  

Now, again, just as I did the last time- here is Bill Beliehcik;s record after 5 seasons of coaching: 36-44 - again, very similar to Ryan's and Kotite's.  

I guess what I want to ask is what has Ryan done that makes anyone believe he is a great head coach or even a very good one?  Is it his playoff record?  4-2?  But he has not been to the playoffs since 2010.  Is it his results improving young players?  Okay... who?  Is it his ability to improve defenses?  Ah... they have all gotten worse.  

I think Ryan is probably a bad head coach who had a lot of talent to work with and luck.  His experience with the Bills was a disaster as he made that team worse every year he coached it.  Marone's numbers were good when he left; Ryan took over a team on the rise and ran it into the ground.  That, to me, is not a struggling Tom Landry or misunderstood Bill Beliehick.  

To me... That's kind of like Richie Kotite.  

 

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Hey everyone.  Sit down.  I ... I have to tell you all something and its going to be hard for you all to hear...

I won't sugar coat this,  

Here goes:

Chip Kelly Is Out of a Job Because He's Horrible

I know we are stunned; the hype around this guy was incredible.  And for no reason I can fathom other than he looked cute when his team scored... the way his plump belly jiggled when his team scored.  Regrettably, with the 49'ers there was not a lot of belly jiggling.  

He still has to coach the game.  Which will be hilarious; Kelly is such an ego maniac that I bet he does that deep breathing thing and keeps telling the 49er players, "Now, men.... DO NOT ... try to win this game for me!  Whatever you do ... don't try to avenge my firing by going out there and being a good football team!  DON'T DO IT GOD DAMN IT!  You play for you.... (*sniff*sniff*)... (voice audibly cracks ....you do it for you!  Do not try and win this game for me!"  

Kaepernick would probably stay seated before saying, "Don't worry coach; we have no plans of winning anytime soon."  

 

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Not so sure why anyone is shocked the 49ers were awful. They have no talent. I find it hard to blame the head coach for having one of the worst rosters in the league. It would be like if the Browns fired Hue Jackson for losing with that pile of shit in Title-Town.

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Yeah, you had to think SF was garbage this year.  When was the last time a franchise had three head coaches in three years.  

It's crazy how quickly SF went from one of the best rosters and coaching situations to one of the worst of each.

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17 minutes ago, Trebla said:

Dak Prescott today= 2 drives, 3 points

Tony Romo=  drive, 7 points

BENCH PRESCOTT!!!!

:P

And then Sanchez wastes no time throwing a pick.  

ETA:  And another!

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1 hour ago, Triskan said:

And then Sanchez wastes no time throwing a pick.  

ETA:  And another!

Heh, yeah, he's doing himself no favors for making a case of him being the #2 QB next season. Romo will undoubtedly be gone next year, one way or another: trade or release. Romo DID do himself a favor today by looking fairly sharp. With the state of QB play, SOMEONE will be willing to trade for him even with his contract. I've read that Dallas may be able to eat some of that money if he's traded.

Kellen Moore is on IR and was slated to be the #2 this year until he got hurt. My guess is he will be competing with Sanchez for the backup job next season. 

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