Stannis wrote the Pink Letter

[three-eyed monkey]

This thread has been rebooted as the last version was archived. It explains why and how Stannis wrote the Pink Letter.

Stannis’ motive is clearly outlined in the text. He’s a man on a mission to win the Iron Throne. He may have diverted to the Wall so that he could save the kingdom in order to win the throne, but the throne remains his ultimate goal and winning the North is a vital step on the climb to the Iron Throne.

“I need more than a sword from you.”

Jon was lost. “My lord?”

“I need the north.”

On more than one occasion Stannis offered Jon the Stark name as well as the title of Lord of Winterfell, but each time Jon refused because of his vows, his belief that Winterfell should go to Sansa, and he felt that he would have to turn against his fathers gods if he was to accept Stannis' offer and claim his father's castle.

“Your father's lands are bleeding, and I have neither the strength nor time to stanch the wounds. What is needed is a Lord of Winterfell. A loyal Lord of Winterfell.”

He is looking at me, Jon thought, stunned. “Winterfell is no more. Theon Greyjoy put it to the torch.”

“Granite does not burn easily”, Stannis said. “The castle can be rebuilt, in time. It’s not the walls that make a lord, it’s the man. Your northmen do not know me, have no reason to love me, yet I will need their strength in the battles to come. I need a son of Eddard Stark to win them to my banner.”

Stannis needs a loyal Lord of Winterfell and who better than Jon Snow, son of Eddard Stark? Stannis has had time to observe Jon at the Wall and clearly seems to like Jon. Jon gave him good advice with regard to moving against the Dreadfort, and Jon informed him of the Karstark treason. There is no better candidate. That is why Stannis is so persistent, like in the following passage where he describes Jon’s strategic value to his cause.

The King set the cup aside. “You could bring the north to me. Your father’s bannermen would rally to the son of Eddard Stark. Even Lord Too-fat-to-sit-a-horse. White Harbor would give me a ready source of supply and a secure base to which I could retreat at need. It is not too late to amend your folly, Snow. Take a knee and swear that bastard sword to me and rise as Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North.”

How many times will he make me say it? “My sword is sword to the Nights Watch."

Obviously Stannis was not pleased with Jon’s refusal, even if it was for honorable reasons such as his Nights Watch vows or not wishing to deny Sansa her inheritance, and initially used nothing more than the suggestion of a trial for turning his cloak to try and persuade Jon. It’s a pretty feeble effort to secure something that is so vital to his chance of success, and I find it hard to believe that Stannis would not go further in his effort to get what he wants. He has tried the polite approach and failed, it would not be unlike him to try another hawk. A pink hawk.

"Your father was a stubborn man as well. Honor, he called it. Well honor has its cost, as Lord Eddard learned to his sorrow."

Stannis is clearly not the honor-bound character many readers think he is, and he’s nowhere near as naive as Ned when it comes to the game of thrones. Honor has its cost and Stannis’ resources are already threadbare. Honor is not something he can afford right now, which he makes quite clear in his response to Jon’s Nights Watch vows:

Jon’s voice was stiff and formal as he said, “I am a man of the Nights Watch.”

“Words. Words are wind.”

At this stage we must ask ourselves if Stannis will allow honorable things like vows and laws to stand in his way of getting what he needs to accomplish his goal? Some readers might say yes to this, but like most of GRRM’s characters, the character of Stannis is not black and white. There is plenty of grey in between, as should be expected of a man who gives you a knighthood with one hand while removing your fingers with the other. Like all good military commanders, Stannis knows the value of deception. I would first point to two obvious deceptions that Stannis partakes in to advance his position.

Stannis stood abruptly. “R’hllor. Why is that so hard to say? They will not love me, you say? When have they ever loved me? How can I lose something I have never owned?” He moved to the south window to gaze out at the moonlit sea. “I stopped believing in gods the day I saw the Windproud break up across the bay. Any gods so monstrous as to drown my mother and father would never have my worship, I vowed. In Kings Landing, the High Septon would prattle at me of how all justice and goodness flowed from the Seven, but all I ever saw of either was made by men.”

“If you do not believe in gods-”

“-why trouble with this new one?” Stannis broke in. “I have asked myself as well. I know little and care less of gods, but the red priestess has power.”

 ...

“The Iron Throne is mine by rights, but how am I to take it? There are four kings in the realm, and three of them have more men and more gold than I do. I have ships... and I have her. The red woman.”

The whole realm thinks Stannis has converted to the Red God, and perhaps he will in the course of things to come, but the fact is that when he started the charade he couldn’t care less about any gods and only entertains the Red God because he needs Mel’s power.

“Melisandre swears that she has seen me in her flames, facing the dark with Lightbringer raised on high. Lightbringer!” Stannis gave a derisive snort. “It glimmers prettily, I’ll grant you, but on the Blackwater this magic sword served me no better than any common steel.”

Stannis clearly knows the magic sword is a fake, but he still persists with this charade as well because it supports the myth Mel has created around him and he is not adverse to deception if it advances his position. The most important example of this is the burning of Rattleshirt. Jon Snow was not the only person Stannis placed a strategic value on.

“Even if she accepts her husband that does not mean the wildlings will follow her, or you. The only man who can bind them to your cause is Mance Rayder.”

“I know that,” Stannis said, unhappily. “I have spent hours speaking with the man.”

Stannis faced a dilemma when it came to the king-beyond-the-wall. He saw the value of Mance and would surely not want to burn such a resource, but at the same time a King should be seen to uphold the law.

"Even if he were to renounce his kingship, though, the man remains an oathbreaker. Suffer one deserter to live, and you encourage others to desert. No. Laws should be made of iron, not of pudding. Mance Rayder's life is forfeit by every law in the Seven Kingdoms."

"The law ends at the wall, Your Grace. You could make good use of Mance."

Stannis ignores the law and solves his dilemma by means of a deception, with help from Mel and at least one of his trusted knights.

The wildling king recoiled from the sight. "No," he cried, "mercy. This is not right, I'm not the king, they-"

Ser Godry gave a pull on the rope. The King-Beyond-the-Wall had no choice but to stumble after him, the rope choking off his words.

Ser Godry Farring, called Giantslayer, is sworn to Stannis. He pulls the rope just in time to cut off the end of Rattleshirt’s sentence. Mel later confirms that Stannis, on Jon’s advice, let Mance live.

"And he owes you his very life."

"Me?" Snow sounded startled.

"Who else, my lord? Only his life's blood could pay for his crimes, your laws said, and Stannis Baratheon is not a man to go against the law...but as you said so sagely, the laws of men end at the Wall."

Mance confirmed as much.

"Stannis burned the wrong man."

"No." The wildling grinned at him through a mouth of brown and broken teeth. "He burned the man he had to burn, for all the world to see. We all do what we have to do, Snow. Even kings."

Stannis is no exception. He will do whatever he has to do to win his realm. He doesn’t care about Jon’s vows or Sansa’s inheritance. Jon Snow can give him the North and he will do whatever he can to make that happen.

The pink letter was designed to antagonize Jon into breaking his vows and riding to Winterfell. It is important to understand that the intention was not for Jon to arrive in time for the upcoming battle, the distance between Castle Black and Winterfell is too great for that. Stannis plans on winning that battle without Jon. The intention was to have Jon arrive at a Winterfell that has been taken by Stannis and with Ramsay already dead. Stannis would then pardon Jon’s oathbreaking, legitimize him, and name him Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North, and in so doing win the North to his cause. And what choice would Jon have when faced with the executioner’s block? Unfortunately, we shall never know if it would have worked thanks to Bowen Marsh and company. It certainly would have met resistance from those favoring northern independence, but… well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken.

I suspect the idea for the pink letter occurred to Stannis when he read the threatening letter Ramsay sent Asha when she was at Deepwood Motte. You may remember that Asha burned the piece of prince that came attached but left the letter with the maester to take to Lady Glover. Stannis discusses the content of the letter in his own letter to Jon from Deepwood Motte, so we can assume Lady Glover showed Stannis Ramsay’s letter when he returned the castle to her.

So by the time Stannis has both Theon and Maester Tybald of the Dreadfort in his possession he has everything he needs to write the letter, even if it was possibly Tybald who did the actual writing. I won’t break the letter down in detail as its content has been poured over enough already, but I do want to point out two things that very strongly point to the words in the letter belonging to Stannis.

"Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper. "Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear."

These two lines are repeated in the letter, probably to lend some truth to the lies, I want my bride back. And I want my Reek. But these are not lines ever spoken by Ramsay, only by Theon when speaking to Stannis. I find it too much of a stretch to believe that Ramsay would find the exact same words later while supposedly composing the letter in Winterfell.

         “Your men call Val a princess, but to the free folk she is only a sister of their king’s dead wife.”

 

Stannis repeatedly refers to Val as a princess and the wildling babe as a prince. Jon tells him time and time again that Val is no princess and the babe is no prince, but to no avail. And Stannis does it again in the letter. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. Think about it, why would Ramsay or any northern lord even consider them a prince and princess? To him they'd just be a couple of wildlings. Even Mance and the free folk do not consider them prince and princess. Only Stannis does.

It’s also worth noting that the letter informs Jon that Arya has escaped Winterfell, which is important because he would be less likely to ride south if his sister were still a hostage of the Boltons.

And finally, Stannis warned Massey against rumors of his death.

"It may be that we shall lose this battle," the king said grimly. "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true."

 

Stannis will win Winterfell, but his plan to win the North to his cause has already been undone due to the events triggered by the pink letter, a device of Stannis’ own design.

 

 

[three-eyed monkey]

Over the years there has been much debate about Ramsay’s spikey hand and whether it is present or not in the pink letter. My own opinion is that it is not present otherwise Jon would have noted it. As mentioned above, I think the letter was most likely written in Tybald’s hand. The following passages come from ADwD, with Jon first receiving a letter from Stannis, and secondly the pink letter itself. 

The seal showed a stag's head within a flaming heart. Stannis. Jon cracked the hardened wax, flattened the roll of parchment, read. A maester's hand, but the king's words.

Bastard, was the only word written outside the scroll. No Lord Snow or Jon Snow or Lord Commander. Simply Bastard. And the letter was sealed with a smear of hard pink wax. "You were right to come at once," Jon said. You were right to be afraid. He cracked the seal, flattened the parchment, and read.

I speculate that the pink letter is also written in a maester’s hand, but the king’s words. That is Stannis style after all, as we see from the first quote. I would also think that the letter is not written in blood, given that Jon flattens the parchment and there is no mention of the ink flaking, compared to Jon’s previous letter from Ramsay when, The brown ink came away in flakes when Jon brushed it with his thumb. But as inkpots explained to Tyrion, “blood makes piss-poor ink.” 

[Clegane'sPup]

14 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

This thread has been rebooted as the last version was archived. It explains why and how Stannis wrote the Pink Letter.

 

I'm glad you brought this back, rebooted or not. You made a good case. I'm gonna have to read it again before I start yapping.

[three-eyed monkey]

25 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I'm glad you brought this back, rebooted or not. You made a good case. I'm gonna have to read it again before I start yapping.

Thanks, @Clegane'sPup. I been away from the forums for several months and look forward to the discussion.

[rotting sea cow]

Thanks @three-eyed monkey I think it is interesting theory. So Pink Letter is written by Stannis, Theon and maybe Mance. So language will mix.  And Jon can provide a glue to the alliance of northmen and Stannis.

However there are issues you don't consider. First, Stannis doesn't know that Jon has an army of wildings. Does he expect him to march alone? After believing the contents of the letter? (Stannis defeated) Or does he expect that Jon declares himself Jon Stark and call the remaining Ned's bannermen? The North is severely depleted of fighting forces anyway, Stannis should now. Only White Harbor has large reserves available. And then? The capture of Winterfell should spread quite quickly. What Jon would do if upon the march he learns that Stannis is siting in Winterfell? 

And do not forget Stannis should be utterly naive if he doesn't expect an adverse reaction of the Black Brothers.

 

 

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Good OP. 

I still do not doubt that Ramsay wrote the so-called “pink letter.” I would agree that at one time, Stannis was driven by his belief that he was Robert’s true heir to the Iron Throne, but I believe that by the time he departed for Eastwatch, his overarching goal had become saving the realm from the Others. To that, he believes he must reunite the Seven Kingdoms as king. Believing Bran and Rickon to be dead, and realizing that Arya was wed to a Bolton and Sansa was wed to a Lannister, Stannis certainly wished that Jon would rally the North behind him. But he accepted Jon’s refusal, however begrudgingly and turned to a Karstark. Although Karstark’s betrayal has been revealed to him, why should we assume that he would resort to such a complicated deceit to trick Jon into foreswearing his vows and accepting Winterfell, when he could kill Ramsay and wed the presumed Arya to the northern lord of his choice? I agree that Jon has earned an great deal of admiration from Stannis. But I believe that Stannis, although he would prefer Jon to rally the North as Lord of Winterfell, recognizes that having Jon as an ally at the Wall is a pretty good consolation. I agree that Stannis is nowhere near as honor-bound as Eddard. But then, Eddard was not ensorcelled by Melisandre the way Stannis is. Still, I respect your proposition...

Quote

The pink letter was designed to antagonize Jon into breaking his vows and riding to Winterfell. It is important to understand that the intention was not for Jon to arrive in time for the upcoming battle, the distance between Castle Black and Winterfell is too great for that. Stannis plans on winning that battle without Jon. The intention was to have Jon arrive at a Winterfell that has been taken by Stannis and with Ramsay already dead. Stannis would then pardon Jon’s oathbreaking, legitimize him, and name him Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North, and in so doing win the North to his cause. And what choice would Jon have when faced with the executioner’s block?

And I agree that you could be right.

[three-eyed monkey]

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Thanks @three-eyed monkey I think it is interesting theory. So Pink Letter is written by Stannis, Theon and maybe Mance. So language will mix.  And Jon can provide a glue to the alliance of northmen and Stannis.

However there are issues you don't consider. First, Stannis doesn't know that Jon has an army of wildings. Does he expect him to march alone? After believing the contents of the letter? (Stannis defeated) Or does he expect that Jon declares himself Jon Stark and call the remaining Ned's bannermen? The North is severely depleted of fighting forces anyway, Stannis should now. Only White Harbor has large reserves available. And then? The capture of Winterfell should spread quite quickly. What Jon would do if upon the march he learns that Stannis is siting in Winterfell? 

And do not forget Stannis should be utterly naive if he doesn't expect an adverse reaction of the Black Brothers.

 

 

 

Just to be clear, I'm saying it was written by Stannis, or more likely written by Tybald as dictated by Stannis. Theon provided some information, and Stannis was able to work out who Abel and the washerwomen in Theon's tale were given that he was well aware that Mance did not burn. But the words are all Stannis, with the exception of a few phrases he borrowed here and there.

Stannis doesn't know about the wildlings but that doesn't really matter because it is Jon he wants at Winterfell. As I said, Stannis does not want Jon for the upcoming Battle of Ice. I suspect that battle will take place within a day or two of Theon I TWoW. Castle Black is at least 14 days ride in good weather, plus another day for the raven to bring the letter in the first place. So the earliest Jon could have arrived at Winterfell is say 15 days after the letter was sent. Stannis will have taken Winterfell by then. He'll have the walls but as Stannis himself says, it's not the walls that make a lord, it's the man. And Jon Snow is his man.

Stannis cannot know for sure how Jon will react to the letter or what events might transpire at Castle Black as a result of the letter but it is likely that one of the following happens. A ) Jon is so outraged he rides to face Ramsay. Be it alone, with what swords he can muster, or perhaps with whatever he can raise of the Night's Watch, that is for Jon to decide. From Stannis point of view it doesn't really matter once Jon comes. B ) Jon cedes to Ramsay's demands and goes to Winterfell with the listed hostages. Stannis probably thinks this far less likely, and while it might alter Stannis' impression of Jon if it happened, it would still achieve the end he wanted. C ) Jon does nothing and sits at Castle Black waiting for Ramsay, which would go against the proactive nature of Jon's character. If this happens then Stannis will be asking himself if Jon really is the man he's looking for.

And just to clarify the timeline. I believe Stannis sent the letter sometime after Theon I TWoW but approximately a day before Jon XIII ADwD, and as GRRM has stated that Theon I TWoW takes place before some of the events of ADwD due to it originally being part of that book, then I think the timeline will not pose a problem.

 

Edit: It is possible that Theon I takes place a week or more before Jon XIII ADwD. We know it took place a maximum of about 2 weeks before Jon XIII, as that is how long it would take Jeyne to get there and she obviously had not arrived yet. But a window of that length allows for the letter to be sent from Winterfell after Stannis had taken the castle and possibly with some input from Mance if he survived the rescue attempt, which I think he probably did. Maybe it took Stannis seven days to defeat the Freys, march on Winterfell, and take the castle? 

[Nevets]

@three-eyed monkey.  Quick question?  In the Theon preview chapter

Stannis sends Arya to be with her brother at Castle Black.  Why not keep her and have them reunite at Winterfell.  And if Theon tells her she is fake, that is an awfully quick change of mind.  

 I think it indicates that he doesn't expect Jon to be leaving Castle Black. And Arya would be an even better figurehead than Jon.  I don't think Stannis would care that she was fake.  Nobody else knows.  Plus, if he is focused on the Others, he is going to need a reliable and dedicated ally at the Wall.  Not to mention, if Jon comes to Winterfell and discovers that he has been deceived, it will likely seriously poison their relationship.  Stannis needs Jon as a reliable and willing ally,, not one who is angry and unreliable.

In case you are wondering, I am in the Ramsay camp.  I do agree that the letter is intended to antagonize Jon and get him to ride on Winterfell, but that is because Ramsay wants Jon discredited and seeming to be the aggressor.  There is nothing in the letter that cannot be discovered or inferred from questioning Mance or the spearwives.

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Good OP. 

I still do not doubt that Ramsay wrote the so-called “pink letter.” I would agree that at one time, Stannis was driven by his belief that he was Robert’s true heir to the Iron Throne, but I believe that by the time he departed for Eastwatch, his overarching goal had become saving the realm from the Others. To that, he believes he must reunite the Seven Kingdoms as king. Believing Bran and Rickon to be dead, and realizing that Arya was wed to a Bolton and Sansa was wed to a Lannister, Stannis certainly wished that Jon would rally the North behind him. But he accepted Jon’s refusal, however begrudgingly and turned to a Karstark. Although Karstark’s betrayal has been revealed to him, why should we assume that he would resort to such a complicated deceit to trick Jon into foreswearing his vows and accepting Winterfell, when he could kill Ramsay and wed the presumed Arya to the northern lord of his choice? I agree that Jon has earned an great deal of admiration from Stannis. But I believe that Stannis, although he would prefer Jon to rally the North as Lord of Winterfell, recognizes that having Jon as an ally at the Wall is a pretty good consolation. I agree that Stannis is nowhere near as honor-bound as Eddard. But then, Eddard was not ensorcelled by Melisandre the way Stannis is. Still, I respect your proposition...

And I agree that you could be right.

Thanks man.

It doesn't really matter if Stannis wants to unite the kingdom to fight the Others or just win the Iron Throne. He needs the North either way and Jon can give it to him. Stannis, we are told, will break before he bends. So why should he bend to the word no?

Stannis said a loyal Lord of Winterfell was what he needed. Someone he can trust. Jon is the best candidate by far. I'm not sure who Stannis second choice would be, a Karstark perhaps, but Jon is clearly the outstanding candidate in Stannis' eyes. If he thought "Arya" was a better choice then he would not have sent her to the Wall.

And I'm not simply assuming that Stannis would resort to a complicated deceit, I'm pointing out that Stannis has resorted to deceit before, he has even resorted to using the darkest of arts to murder his own brother and later win Storm's End, so I don't think something like the pink letter is beneath him.

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

@three-eyed monkey.  Quick question?  In the Theon preview chapter

  Hide contents

Stannis sends Arya to be with her brother at Castle Black.  Why not keep her and have them reunite at Winterfell.  And if Theon tells her she is fake, that is an awfully quick change of mind.  

 I think it indicates that he doesn't expect Jon to be leaving Castle Black. And Arya would be an even better figurehead than Jon.  I don't think Stannis would care that she was fake.  Nobody else knows.  Plus, if he is focused on the Others, he is going to need a reliable and dedicated ally at the Wall.  Not to mention, if Jon comes to Winterfell and discovers that he has been deceived, it will likely seriously poison their relationship.  Stannis needs Jon as a reliable and willing ally,, not one who is angry and unreliable.

In case you are wondering, I am in the Ramsay camp.  I do agree that the letter is intended to antagonize Jon and get him to ride on Winterfell, but that is because Ramsay wants Jon discredited and seeming to be the aggressor.  There is nothing in the letter that cannot be discovered or inferred from questioning Mance or the spearwives.

"Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch." Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. "A true king pays his debts."

Stannis is simply giving with one hand and taking with the other once again, just as he did with Davos. He clearly feels indebted to Jon for outing the Karstarks and he is paying up. I think we can take it from this that Stannis thinks he is in possession of the real Arya. I imagine it is the one detail Theon omitted from his tale of her rescue. Stannis had already told Jon, in his letter from Deepwood Motte, that he would try and save his sister if she was still alive. But he has never shown any political interest in her, other than someone whose return could buy him favour with Jon. She appears in the above conversation almost as an afterthought. Stannis has a chauvinistic attitude towards women, perhaps that is part of it, but Stannis does not just want a figurehead, he wants a loyal and presumably competent, Lord of Winterfell in place so that he can press south safe in the knowledge that his rear is secure.

And Stannis only says to Justin Massey what we would expect. Take Arya to Jon at Caste Black. I would not expect him to disclose what he is planning to someone who does not need to know. 

How would Jon discover he was deceived? Stannis obviously would not tell him. Ramsay would be dead if things go as Stannis plans. Master Tybald may be the only other person who knows the letter came from Stannis and he could quite easily be silenced, given the strength of his bladder, or even just locked away out of earshot. All Jon would know is that he received a intimidating letter from the late Ramsay Bolton that was full of boastful lies.

While Ramsay might well have been able to gain the relevant information from Mance and the spear wives, assuming he captured them alive, Stannis has all the relevant information without need for supposition. But still, the Ramsay torturing Mance and the spear wives idea obviously remains plausible.

There are three main reasons I don't think Ramsay wrote the pink letter.

1/ the letter itself is out of character with the other letters Ramsay sent. GRRM purposefully established the character of Ramsay's letters, the spikey hand, writing in blood, a piece of skin, etc., none of which appear in the pink letter.

2/ sending the letter in response to Arya's escape is out of character with Ramsay. He is renowned for hunting women through the woods. When Theon and Jeyne escaped, writing a letter was probably the furthest thing from Ramsay's mind. I'd think it more likely that he would go out to get her back, which is essentially what he is doing.

3/ The motive for Ramsay writing the letter is very weak. Antagonising Jon so that he appears to be the aggressor is pointless. If what he says in the letter is true and he knows Mance was not really executed, then as Warden of the North he could just ride up to Castle Black and have Jon beheaded as an oath-breaking turncloak who helped another oath-breaking turncloak to avoid execution.

As I said, they are the main reasons but there are plenty more. And I find the case for Mance even less compelling.

 

[The Drunkard]

A simple "Hey Jon, Ramsay has promised to flay your sister unless blah blah blah, come save her" is far more effective, and doesn't pose the risk of getting Melisandre or his family killed or captured. There's also no reason for Jon to march south other than blind rage (and Stannis knows Jon's not an idiot) as the author claims to have lost Arya, and also claims to have defeated Stannis' army, making a southward march pointless and hopeless. 

What I believe is a much better explanation is the following:

- Stannis has access to the Karstark ravens that Tybald was using to keep Roose informed re: Stannis' march. Stannis knows this, and can now send letters to Winterfell containing false information. For example: news of his defeat and perhaps a heads-up that victorious Manderly forces are returning to Winterfell bearing his sword. 

- With Stannis dead, the only obstacles to Bolton domination are Jon, at the Wall, and Manderly, at Winterfell with a slashed neck being tended to by maesters working for Roose. Wyman can be easily disposed of, but Jon is thousands of miles away on the other side of a blizzard with a small army of wildlings and watchmen.

- Therefore, it's perfectly in character for Roose to send Jon a letter that 1) exposes his crimes to the watchmen (i.e. that he apparently had a role in saving Mance, covering it up, and using him for personal reasons), 2) highlights the hopelessness of any resistance, 3) forces him to make a decision that either outs himself as an enemy (i.e. by refusing the demands) or turns any potential allies against him (i.e. by trying to turn over Stannis' family and ignoring Mance's plight), 4) shifts all responsibility to Ramsay. In the aftermath of a victory against Stannis, and with no way to easily reach the Wall, there's no better strategy for the Boltons than to send Castle Black a letter that divides Jon's powerbase and turns at least one segment of it against him.

- Incidentally, Stannis no longer needs Jon. He wanted him when he initially arrived because he wanted to avoid a bloody scrap for the North. But he's involved in one now anyway, he's already won half the North, and the rest will fall into his lap should he crush the Boltons and take Winterfell. He sends Jeyne/'Arya' away because a Stark figurehead is no longer necessary for him to rally the northmen. 

 

On 1/4/2017 at 11:00 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

Stannis’ motive is clearly outlined in the text. He’s a man on a mission to win the Iron Throne. He may have diverted to the Wall so that he could save the kingdom in order to win the throne, but the throne remains his ultimate goal and winning the North is a vital step on the climb to the Iron Throne.

That's misreading the passage. He identifies the Others as his ultimate goal.

"Lord Seaworth is a man of humble birth, but he reminded me of my duty, when all I could think of was my rights. I had the cart before the horse, Davos said. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne." Stannis pointed north. "There is where I'll find the foe that I was born to fight."

He's not saying the throne is more important than the Others, but that his duty (the one he was born to fulfill) should come before his rights.

"... it is important that the individual books refer to the civil wars, but the series title reminds us constantly that the real issue lies in the North beyond the Wall. Stannis becomes one of the few characters fully to understand that..." - GRRM

And from GRRM, we know that Stannis understands that the Others are the "real issue", not a civil war for the IT.

[Lost Melnibonean]

41 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

A simple "Hey Jon, Ramsay has promised to flay your sister unless blah blah blah, come save her" is far more effective, and doesn't pose the risk of getting Melisandre or his family killed or captured. There's also no reason for Jon to march south other than blind rage (and Stannis knows Jon's not an idiot) as the author claims to have lost Arya, and also claims to have defeated Stannis' army, making a southward march pointless and hopeless. 

What I believe is a much better explanation is the following:

- Stannis has access to the Karstark ravens that Tybald was using to keep Roose informed re: Stannis' march. Stannis knows this, and can now send letters to Winterfell containing false information. For example: news of his defeat and perhaps a heads-up that victorious Manderly forces are returning to Winterfell bearing his sword. 

- With Stannis dead, the only obstacles to Bolton domination are Jon, at the Wall, and Manderly, at Winterfell with a slashed neck being tended to by maesters working for Roose. Wyman can be easily disposed of, but Jon is thousands of miles away on the other side of a blizzard with a small army of wildlings and watchmen.

- Therefore, it's perfectly in character for Roose to send Jon a letter that 1) exposes his crimes to the watchmen (i.e. that he apparently had a role in saving Mance, covering it up, and using him for personal reasons), 2) highlights the hopelessness of any resistance, 3) forces him to make a decision that either outs himself as an enemy (i.e. by refusing the demands) or turns any potential allies against him (i.e. by trying to turn over Stannis' family and ignoring Mance's plight), 4) shifts all responsibility to Ramsay. In the aftermath of a victory against Stannis, and with no way to easily reach the Wall, there's no better strategy for the Boltons than to send Castle Black a letter that divides Jon's powerbase and turns at least one segment of it against him.

- Incidentally, Stannis no longer needs Jon. He wanted him when he initially arrived because he wanted to avoid a bloody scrap for the North. But he's involved in one now anyway, he's already won half the North, and the rest will fall into his lap should he crush the Boltons and take Winterfell. He sends Jeyne/'Arya' away because a Stark figurehead is no longer necessary for him to rally the northmen. 

 

That's misreading the passage. He identifies the Others as his ultimate goal.

"Lord Seaworth is a man of humble birth, but he reminded me of my duty, when all I could think of was my rights. I had the cart before the horse, Davos said. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne." Stannis pointed north. "There is where I'll find the foe that I was born to fight."

He's not saying the throne is more important than the Others, but that his duty (the one he was born to fulfill) should come before his rights.

"... it is important that the individual books refer to the civil wars, but the series title reminds us constantly that the real issue lies in the North beyond the Wall. Stannis becomes one of the few characters fully to understand that..." - GRRM

And from GRRM, we know that Stannis understands that the Others are the "real issue", not a civil war for the IT.

Great post. 

[YOVMO]

Just out of curiosity (and fair disclosure I am a believer that Mance wrote the Pink Letter at the nonce) is there anyone who has done any thinking on whether or not it is possible that Jon himself wrote this letter?

[Greywater-Watch]

Well argued, but I still do not feel that this would be Stannis' style. If he wanted Jon to come to Winterfell, I believe he would just have told him so., plainly.

[aryagonnakill#2]

15 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

"Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch." Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. "A true king pays his debts."

Stannis is simply giving with one hand and taking with the other once again, just as he did with Davos. He clearly feels indebted to Jon for outing the Karstarks and he is paying up. I think we can take it from this that Stannis thinks he is in possession of the real Arya. I imagine it is the one detail Theon omitted from his tale of her rescue. Stannis had already told Jon, in his letter from Deepwood Motte, that he would try and save his sister if she was still alive. But he has never shown any political interest in her, other than someone whose return could buy him favour with Jon. She appears in the above conversation almost as an afterthought. Stannis has a chauvinistic attitude towards women, perhaps that is part of it, but Stannis does not just want a figurehead, he wants a loyal and presumably competent, Lord of Winterfell in place so that he can press south safe in the knowledge that his rear is secure.

And Stannis only says to Justin Massey what we would expect. Take Arya to Jon at Caste Black. I would not expect him to disclose what he is planning to someone who does not need to know. 

How would Jon discover he was deceived? Stannis obviously would not tell him. Ramsay would be dead if things go as Stannis plans. Master Tybald may be the only other person who knows the letter came from Stannis and he could quite easily be silenced, given the strength of his bladder, or even just locked away out of earshot. All Jon would know is that he received a intimidating letter from the late Ramsay Bolton that was full of boastful lies.

While Ramsay might well have been able to gain the relevant information from Mance and the spear wives, assuming he captured them alive, Stannis has all the relevant information without need for supposition. But still, the Ramsay torturing Mance and the spear wives idea obviously remains plausible.

There are three main reasons I don't think Ramsay wrote the pink letter.

1/ the letter itself is out of character with the other letters Ramsay sent. GRRM purposefully established the character of Ramsay's letters, the spikey hand, writing in blood, a piece of skin, etc., none of which appear in the pink letter.

2/ sending the letter in response to Arya's escape is out of character with Ramsay. He is renowned for hunting women through the woods. When Theon and Jeyne escaped, writing a letter was probably the furthest thing from Ramsay's mind. I'd think it more likely that he would go out to get her back, which is essentially what he is doing.

3/ The motive for Ramsay writing the letter is very weak. Antagonising Jon so that he appears to be the aggressor is pointless. If what he says in the letter is true and he knows Mance was not really executed, then as Warden of the North he could just ride up to Castle Black and have Jon beheaded as an oath-breaking turncloak who helped another oath-breaking turncloak to avoid execution.

As I said, they are the main reasons but there are plenty more. And I find the case for Mance even less compelling.

 

That is simply not true, and I would just like to point out the irony in saying that Ramsays motive is weak when no other character even has a motive.

WF is some 6-700 miles from Castle Black and there is a huge blizzard in the middle of winter.  The logistics of that alone are daunting, but when you consider the Boltons weak position, it becomes almost impossible.

First off with the Freys dead the Boltons now have a much smaller troop # advantage over the other northern lords, so taking the 2k or so troops you would need to ensure victory would leave them outnumbered in WF, something I highly doubt Roose would want.  While CB does not have a southern facing curtain wall the attack by the Thenns shows that it can be defended as it still has towers providing cover and an elevated position. It is also filled with several hundred armed men that would cause significant casualties even if victory is achieved.

Second is the fact that in the several weeks it would take the Bolton forces to arrive, Jon would have had all the time he needed to tell the north that Arya was in fact Jeyne Poole, and if Theon chooses to spill the beans, that not only did Rickon and Bran survive WF, but that it was the Boltons and not the Ironborn who sacked the castle in the first place.  From this perspective we can see that the letter was as much about "you don't tell I don't tell" as it was anything else.

Last is the fact that no lord of WF has attacked the NW since the Night King.  To just slaughter the watch would be seen as a huge crime to other northerners.  That is a PR problem the Boltons just do not need right now.  The only way to avoid this would be to offer Jon terms when they got there... the same terms they offer in the letter... only by sending a letter they do not have to spend the food/money marching men there, nor do they have to weaken their position within WF itself by sending men away.

Do the Boltons have the power to attack and achieve victory?  Sure.  Would it be easy?  No.  Might it cause more problems than it would solve. Yes

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

40 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

Just out of curiosity (and fair disclosure I am a believer that Mance wrote the Pink Letter at the nonce) is there anyone who has done any thinking on whether or not it is possible that Jon himself wrote this letter?

[three-eyed monkey]

5 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

A simple "Hey Jon, Ramsay has promised to flay your sister unless blah blah blah, come save her" is far more effective, and doesn't pose the risk of getting Melisandre or his family killed or captured. There's also no reason for Jon to march south other than blind rage (and Stannis knows Jon's not an idiot) as the author claims to have lost Arya, and also claims to have defeated Stannis' army, making a southward march pointless and hopeless. 

What I believe is a much better explanation is the following:

- Stannis has access to the Karstark ravens that Tybald was using to keep Roose informed re: Stannis' march. Stannis knows this, and can now send letters to Winterfell containing false information. For example: news of his defeat and perhaps a heads-up that victorious Manderly forces are returning to Winterfell bearing his sword. 

- With Stannis dead, the only obstacles to Bolton domination are Jon, at the Wall, and Manderly, at Winterfell with a slashed neck being tended to by maesters working for Roose. Wyman can be easily disposed of, but Jon is thousands of miles away on the other side of a blizzard with a small army of wildlings and watchmen.

- Therefore, it's perfectly in character for Roose to send Jon a letter that 1) exposes his crimes to the watchmen (i.e. that he apparently had a role in saving Mance, covering it up, and using him for personal reasons), 2) highlights the hopelessness of any resistance, 3) forces him to make a decision that either outs himself as an enemy (i.e. by refusing the demands) or turns any potential allies against him (i.e. by trying to turn over Stannis' family and ignoring Mance's plight), 4) shifts all responsibility to Ramsay. In the aftermath of a victory against Stannis, and with no way to easily reach the Wall, there's no better strategy for the Boltons than to send Castle Black a letter that divides Jon's powerbase and turns at least one segment of it against him.

- Incidentally, Stannis no longer needs Jon. He wanted him when he initially arrived because he wanted to avoid a bloody scrap for the North. But he's involved in one now anyway, he's already won half the North, and the rest will fall into his lap should he crush the Boltons and take Winterfell. He sends Jeyne/'Arya' away because a Stark figurehead is no longer necessary for him to rally the northmen. 

 

That's misreading the passage. He identifies the Others as his ultimate goal.

"Lord Seaworth is a man of humble birth, but he reminded me of my duty, when all I could think of was my rights. I had the cart before the horse, Davos said. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne." Stannis pointed north. "There is where I'll find the foe that I was born to fight."

He's not saying the throne is more important than the Others, but that his duty (the one he was born to fulfill) should come before his rights.

"... it is important that the individual books refer to the civil wars, but the series title reminds us constantly that the real issue lies in the North beyond the Wall. Stannis becomes one of the few characters fully to understand that..." - GRRM

And from GRRM, we know that Stannis understands that the Others are the "real issue", not a civil war for the IT.

I don’t think “Hey Jon, Ramsay is about to flay your sister, come rescue her,” would work better. To begin with Jon knows that Roose Bolton is not the sort who would be careless with a prize of such great worth. Jon has been aware of the peril Arya is in ever since he heard about her wedding to Ramsay and he did not muster swords and ride south then, but that is exactly what he intended after reading the pink letter. So the pink letter was effective if indeed getting Jon to ride south was the intention, which is something I think we both agree upon. And while you might consider the defeat of Stannis and the Bolton’s loss of Arya as something that would render a march south pointless and hopeless, Jon clearly did not because that is exactly what he was going to do.

I am well aware of the theory that Ramsay wrote the pink letter after receiving false information from Stannis via Maester Tybald’s ravens. I agree that Stannis will send false information to Winterfell using the ravens, and will gain access to the castle this way, but I don’t think Ramsay will be there to receive it.

"Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek."

"Lord Ramsay," Theon hissed. "The son, not the father. You must not let him take him. Roose... Roose is safe within the walls of Winterfell with his fat new wife. Ramsay is coming."

Theon knows Ramsay well, a character known to enjoy hunting women through the woods. It would be totally in character for Ramsay to come after Arya while Roose remains in Winterfell. So the information Stannis sends will go to Roose. Ramsay will be in the field, unable to receive a raven, and if he ever makes it back to Winterfell alive then it will be after the Battle of Ice, in which case he will be in a position to know if Stannis was defeated or not.

But even if Ramsay stays in Winterfell and receives false information from Stannis, I still think the letter is pointless from his point of view. He doesn’t need to trick Jon into playing the aggressor. If he has Mance, then as Lord of Winterfell he is within his rights to have Jon beheaded as a turncloak, oathbreaker, someone who assisted Mance’s escape, take your pick. The Bolton’s have far better options available when it comes to dealing with Jon, who is already considered a traitor by the crown for assisting the rebel Stannis.

And even if for some reason they decided to go with the letter anyway, say Ramsay has killed Roose at this stage and he’s running the show now, then there is the character of Ramsay’s letters in comparison to the pink letter to consider. If Ramsay wanted to intimidate Jon then I think he would have included a piece of Mance or a spearwife. And why change to ink from blood. Or if Ramsay wanted to bring the weight of his authority as Lord of Winterfell to bear on Jon, then I would expect the pink letter to have been appended by the northern lords.

And of course there is the content. Why would Ramsay consider Val a princess or even call her that? What value would he place on her? Are we really to believe that Ramsay, when composing his letter in Winterfell, chooses the exact same words, person aside, as Theon did when speaking directly to Stannis? Maybe poetic license would allow for such a stretch, but I’m not convinced.

I also disagree with the notion that Stannis no longer needs Jon. Stannis may certainly have to proceed without Jon, but I don’t see why he would change his mind about Jon. Regardless of whether he is trying to unite the realm to fight the Others or just win the Iron Throne he is definitely trying to win the North right now, I think that is beyond dispute. That is why he marched on Winterfell after all. He intends on taking Winterfell but needs a loyal Lord of Winterfell because as he said himself, it’s the man not the walls that make a lord, and no better candidate than Jon has emerged. If anything the northern loyalty and affection for the Starks would have been strongly confirmed to him in the letter from Bear Island and on his march with the northern clans. Stannis needs Jon a lot more than Ramsay needs to trick Jon into being seen to be the aggressor, or any other motive Ramsay might have for writing the letter.

[YOVMO]

35 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I don't read emoji so well. Did I open a bad can of worms by wondering if Jon wrote the pink letter. After all, Jon is most effected by the pink letter and it does seem to give him an excuse to do things that he had wanted to do anyway.

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, YOVMO said:

Just out of curiosity (and fair disclosure I am a believer that Mance wrote the Pink Letter at the nonce) is there anyone who has done any thinking on whether or not it is possible that Jon himself wrote this letter?

I have seen theories on Ramsay, Stannis, Mance, Asha, Septon Chayle (who?), Mel, Varys, Thorne, Lady Dustin, and Jon as well as a few others. Most of the Stannis threads have been weak too. 

57 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Well argued, but I still do not feel that this would be Stannis' style. If he wanted Jon to come to Winterfell, I believe he would just have told him so., plainly.

He did tell him, several times. Not just to come to Winterfell but to go there as a legitimised lord and warden of the north. But Jon cited his vows in reply. By getting Jon to break his vows and come south now, Stannis can make Jon an offer he can't refuse.

[YOVMO]

2 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I have seen theories on Ramsay, Stannis, Mance, Asha, Septon Chayle (who?), Mel, Varys, Thorne, Lady Dustin, and Jon as well as a few others. Most of the Stannis threads have been weak too. 

I have only seen Ramsay, Stannis and Mance theories that didn't seem totally insane. Chayle is the septon of winterfell. Now that would be some left field stuff for sure.