Stannis wrote the Pink Letter

[three-eyed monkey]

59 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

That is simply not true, and I would just like to point out the irony in saying that Ramsays motive is weak when no other character even has a motive.

WF is some 6-700 miles from Castle Black and there is a huge blizzard in the middle of winter.  The logistics of that alone are daunting, but when you consider the Boltons weak position, it becomes almost impossible.

First off with the Freys dead the Boltons now have a much smaller troop # advantage over the other northern lords, so taking the 2k or so troops you would need to ensure victory would leave them outnumbered in WF, something I highly doubt Roose would want.  While CB does not have a southern facing curtain wall the attack by the Thenns shows that it can be defended as it still has towers providing cover and an elevated position. It is also filled with several hundred armed men that would cause significant casualties even if victory is achieved.

Second is the fact that in the several weeks it would take the Bolton forces to arrive, Jon would have had all the time he needed to tell the north that Arya was in fact Jeyne Poole, and if Theon chooses to spill the beans, that not only did Rickon and Bran survive WF, but that it was the Boltons and not the Ironborn who sacked the castle in the first place.  From this perspective we can see that the letter was as much about "you don't tell I don't tell" as it was anything else.

Last is the fact that no lord of WF has attacked the NW since the Night King.  To just slaughter the watch would be seen as a huge crime to other northerners.  That is a PR problem the Boltons just do not need right now.  The only way to avoid this would be to offer Jon terms when they got there... the same terms they offer in the letter... only by sending a letter they do not have to spend the food/money marching men there, nor do they have to weaken their position within WF itself by sending men away.

Do the Boltons have the power to attack and achieve victory?  Sure.  Would it be easy?  No.  Might it cause more problems than it would solve. Yes

 

I'm not suggesting the Boltons attack Castle Black. But I don't think they would allow Jeyne and Theon to get to the Wall either. Quite a distance for a couple of frail people on foot. The very reason they are sending forces into the field is because they now need to move against Stannis as his camp is the most likely place for them to find immediate refuge. My point is, the Boltons have a minimum of two weeks before she could even reach the Wall and I don't see them advertising the fact that they lost her so readily in advance. They would at least try to hunt her down, which is essentially what they are doing.

And as I outlined in the OP, I think Stannis has clear motive so the irony is lost on me.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, YOVMO said:

I don't read emoji so well. Did I open a bad can of worms by wondering if Jon wrote the pink letter. After all, Jon is most effected by the pink letter and it does seem to give him an excuse to do things that he had wanted to do anyway.

I just can't imagine this. 

[YOVMO]

Just now, Lost Melnibonean said:

I just can't imagine this. 

Really neither can I. But, just for a moment, since its not like we have new material to read, lets contemplate it. Everything Jon wants to do but is held back from by his vows he is given an open excuse to do by the pink letter. There is nothing in that letter that would disqualify Jon as the author with the exception of the fact that it is "to him" and the effects of the letter are things that Jon was already predisposed to.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

Really neither can I. But, just for a moment, since its not like we have new material to read, lets contemplate it. Everything Jon wants to do but is held back from by his vows he is given an open excuse to do by the pink letter. There is nothing in that letter that would disqualify Jon as the author with the exception of the fact that it is "to him" and the effects of the letter are things that Jon was already predisposed to.

 

I just looked at Jon XIII, Dance again, right before he reads the letter and right after, and I have to conclude that any suggestion that Jon wrote it is crackpot. 

[YOVMO]

2 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I just looked at Jon XIII, Dance again, right before he reads the letter and right after, and I have to conclude that any suggestion that Jon wrote it is crackpot. 

Total crackpot (like I said, I think Mance) but was just an idea that flew threw my head. Which line in Jon XIII do you suppose knocks the idea down?

[three-eyed monkey]

@YOVMO Jon XIII is Jon's pov. It would be a real cheat by GRRM if Jon was reading a letter he knew he wrote but the reader did not.

Mance was the most popular candidate at one stage, based largely on the use of the term "black crow" in the pink letter, which we were told was an exclusively wilding term, but in fact is not.

I never understood how Mance could even send the raven, given the position we las saw him in. He would have to access a raven, which is plausible as a number of the Winterfell ravens have remained in the godswood, but then he would have to know which raven, if any, was trained for Castle Black. And he would have to be literate, which may be the case, I can't remember if that was confirmed one way or the other. But if I look at Mance in terms of means, motive, and opportunity to write and send the letter then it seems a bit of a stretch.

I'm not sure if Mance was captured or if he escaped and is hiding in the most hid-in crypts in the history of Westeros, but either way I don't see him sending ravens, other than maybe an urgent request for rescue, which he would have to wait a minimum of two or three weeks to arrive anyway.

[The Agency of Sansa Stark]

I thought Ramsay wrote it?

"signed Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn lord of Winterfell..." 

am I missing something..?

[YOVMO]

50 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

@YOVMO Jon XIII is Jon's pov. It would be a real cheat by GRRM if Jon was reading a letter he knew he wrote but the reader did not.

Mance was the most popular candidate at one stage, based largely on the use of the term "black crow" in the pink letter, which we were told was an exclusively wilding term, but in fact is not.

I never understood how Mance could even send the raven, given the position we las saw him in. He would have to access a raven, which is plausible as a number of the Winterfell ravens have remained in the godswood, but then he would have to know which raven, if any, was trained for Castle Black. And he would have to be literate, which may be the case, I can't remember if that was confirmed one way or the other. But if I look at Mance in terms of means, motive, and opportunity to write and send the letter then it seems a bit of a stretch.

I'm not sure if Mance was captured or if he escaped and is hiding in the most hid-in crypts in the history of Westeros, but either way I don't see him sending ravens, other than maybe an urgent request for rescue, which he would have to wait a minimum of two or three weeks to arrive anyway.

the pov angle seems exactly right. Thank you. How Mance sends the raven is the complicated part about mance sending it, but it wouldn't exactly be difficult to reslve. I have no doubt that mance is literate and, indeed, more than he seems.

[Jasta11]

The motive part is what makes me unable to agree Stannis wrote it.

If Stannis wanted Jon to come down so that he could use him, a much simpler way would have been to tell him about Arya straight up, and not bother with the whole setup that has potentially highly volatile results (as we have seen).

Plus, while Stannis is not above deceit, I don't think it's his prefered method. I don't see him resorting to so elaborate a scheme; remember, the letter reads as a 101 course on exactly how to piss off Jon. Stannis isn't that good a manipulator, but Mance and/or the Boltons are.

[three-eyed monkey]

24 minutes ago, Jasta11 said:

The motive part is what makes me unable to agree Stannis wrote it.

If Stannis wanted Jon to come down so that he could use him, a much simpler way would have been to tell him about Arya straight up, and not bother with the whole setup that has potentially highly volatile results (as we have seen).

Plus, while Stannis is not above deceit, I don't think it's his prefered method. I don't see him resorting to so elaborate a scheme; remember, the letter reads as a 101 course on exactly how to piss off Jon. Stannis isn't that good a manipulator, but Mance and/or the Boltons are.

A writer should know what each character wants or desires as that is essentially what moves the story forward. That's just a basic principal of storytelling. Let the reader know what the characters want, then let the reader know what opposes the characters attaining what they want, and the ensuing conflict is what creates the drama. Once the conflict is set up the characters usually try, fail, try again and succeed, or sometimes try, fail, try again and fail again. GRRM has clearly told us what Stannis wants in the text, Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell and King Stannis' Warden of the North. He has told us what opposes Stannis getting what he wants, Jon's vows. Stannis has already tried, he has failed, we should really see him try again. I believe the pink letter is Stannis trying again, and subsequently failing again but driving the story on nonetheless.

The stabbing, btw, is the result of Marsh's try/fail cycle. He has stated what he wants in terms of letting the wildlings through the Wall and remaining loyal to the crown, Jon has opposed him, Marsh has tried several times to disuade Jon and failed to stop him, but in Jon XIII he succeeds, driving the story forward. This pattern is repeated with almost every character, not just in ASoIaF but in most of the books you ever read. The art of good storytelling is in how the characters quest for their desires collide and change the direction of the story, like they did in Jon XIII.

I agree that deceit is probably not Stannis' preferred method. He did ask first, and even hinted at the threat of turning him over to those in the Night's Watch that wanted him to face trial as a turncloak, so the soft approach was his preferred method. But it failed so he must try a different hawk, and as you agree, he is not above deception. And I don't think it is that elaborate a scheme really, it's a forged letter designed to get Jon to break his vows and come to Winterfell. Stannis may not be the most charming of characters, but I think he has a number of things in common with Jon and understands what makes him tick better than you give him credit for. I would have to say the same for Mance, but I don't think Ramsay or Roose really know Jon at all.

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, YOVMO said:

Total crackpot (like I said, I think Mance) but was just an idea that flew threw my head. Which line in Jon XIII do you suppose knocks the idea down?

Just the vibe with how the letter is delivered, the thoughts from his POV, and what TOrmond says about Jon's reaction. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

@YOVMO Jon XIII is Jon's pov. It would be a real cheat by GRRM if Jon was reading a letter he knew he wrote but the reader did not.

Mance was the most popular candidate at one stage, based largely on the use of the term "black crow" in the pink letter, which we were told was an exclusively wilding term, but in fact is not.

I never understood how Mance could even send the raven, given the position we las saw him in. He would have to access a raven, which is plausible as a number of the Winterfell ravens have remained in the godswood, but then he would have to know which raven, if any, was trained for Castle Black. And he would have to be literate, which may be the case, I can't remember if that was confirmed one way or the other. But if I look at Mance in terms of means, motive, and opportunity to write and send the letter then it seems a bit of a stretch.

I'm not sure if Mance was captured or if he escaped and is hiding in the most hid-in crypts in the history of Westeros, but either way I don't see him sending ravens, other than maybe an urgent request for rescue, which he would have to wait a minimum of two or three weeks to arrive anyway.

I wouldna rule out the Mance completely. I have read some intriguing arguments in support of that proposition. But I agree with you that the Mance didna draft the letter. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, The Agency of Sansa Stark said:

I thought Ramsay wrote it?

"signed Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn lord of Winterfell..." 

am I missing something..?

I know, huh? 

[The Agency of Sansa Stark]

Just now, Lost Melnibonean said:

I know, huh? 

Glad to see I'm not the only one.

[Nevets]

3 hours ago, The Agency of Sansa Stark said:

I thought Ramsay wrote it?

"signed Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn lord of Winterfell..." 

am I missing something..?

Apparently in fan-land, if it is clear and obvious, it is obviously a fake.  

to be honest, it seems like a risky thing for Stannis to do, and whatever else I might say about Stannis, he doesn't appear to be that big a risk-taker, especially when it could blow up in his face.

As for Jon writing it himself, his POV indicates genuine surprise and an actual belief in its contents.  So, no, he did not write it himself.

[kissdbyfire]

5 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Apparently in fan-land, if it is clear and obvious, it is obviously a fake.  

to be honest, it seems like a risky thing for Stannis to do, and whatever else I might say about Stannis, he doesn't appear to be that big a risk-taker, especially when it could blow up in his face.

As for Jon writing it himself, his POV indicates genuine surprise and an actual belief in its contents.  So, no, he did not write it himself.

I agree. And just imagine what could happen if it fell in the wrong hands or no one understood the true message! Oh. Wait.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

16 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Apparently in fan-land, if it is clear and obvious, it is obviously a fake.  

 

If it was written in blood, in a spiky hand, with the northern lords' signatures appended, and perhaps a piece of skin attached then it would be clear and obvious. GRRM set up the character of Ramsay's letters on purpose, and he purposefully omitted some of those characteristics when it came to the pink letter.

[Lord Lannister]

Stannis writing the pink letter would make a certain amount of sense for the reasons outlined with the exception of a blatant lie and fabrication like this would seem to be in direct contrast to his character. One of his men, perhaps, but now that Davos is gone, most of them seem to be toadies.

[three-eyed monkey]

23 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I agree. And just imagine what could happen if it fell in the wrong hands or no one understood the true message! Oh. Wait.

 

I don't know what you mean by the true message? I'm not suggesting there is a code or anything. I'm simply saying the letter was designed to spur Jon to Winterfell. Jon reading the letter aloud in the shield hall or the later intervention by Marsh could not really have been predicted by the author of the letter. Perhaps there is an element of risk involved, as there is for any potential author of the letter, but I don't see it as a huge risk on Stannis behalf. I think Stannis has contemplated riskier things than sending a forged letter during his career as a military commander, like an attack on the Dreadfort for example. 

"Risk is part of war," declared Ser Richard Horpe, a lean knight with a ravaged face whose quilted doublet showed three death's-head moths on a field of ash and bone. "Every battle is a gamble, Snow. The man who does nothing also takes a risk." 

"There are risks and risks, Ser Richard. This one … it is too much, too soon, too far away. I know the Dreadfort. It is a strong castle, all of stone, with thick walls and massive towers. With winter coming you will find it well provisioned. Centuries ago, House Bolton rose up against the King in the North, and Harlon Stark laid siege to the Dreadfort. It took him two years to starve them out. To have any hope of taking the castle, Your Grace would need siege engines, towers, battering rams …"

 

[three-eyed monkey]

7 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

Stannis writing the pink letter would make a certain amount of sense for the reasons outlined with the exception of a blatant lie and fabrication like this would seem to be in direct contrast to his character. One of his men, perhaps, but now that Davos is gone, most of them seem to be toadies.

No more blatant a lie than the burning of Mance.