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Stannis wrote the Pink Letter


three-eyed monkey

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As to the timeline of events in the North in Dance, working backwards...

The final chapter in the North should be Jon XIII, Dance 69. Tormund returns after settling his band at Oakenshield, which is within a day's march from Castle Black. Since he arrived in the afternoon that would have been his return day. The day before, he would have marched to Oakenshield "a day or two" after passing the Wall. Since Jon apparently learned of the dire condition at Hardhome before Tormund left, Tormund probably left the following day. So Dance Jon XIII, 69 should follow Jon II, Dance 58 by 2, maybe 3 days.

Jon XII, Dance 58 should follow Jon XI, Dance 53 by 3 days since we're told that's when Tormund will pass the Wall. Jon XI, Dance 53 should occur the day after Jon X, Dance 49, since that's when Jon deals with Tormund, and Tormund arrives the evening before.

Jon X, Dance 49 should follow Jon IX, Dance 44 by at least 9 days since Flint and Norrey arrive for the Thenn-Karstark wedding. We need one day for the ravens to fly to the mountains, and another eight or so for the men to reach the Wall. Given that one showed up with a wet nurse, I think we should space this from 10 to 14 days.

Then we have Jon IX, Dance 44, which we can use to synchronize with The Turncloak, Dance 41 and The Kin'g's Prize, Dance 42, since Jon notes that the snows have moved south. In The Turncloak, Dance 41, the snows begin to fall at Winterfell, and the snows begin to fall in the Wolfswood four days after the The King's Prize, Dance 42 begins.

Now going forward... 

So, we have The King's Prize, Dance 42 beginning 3 days before Jon IX, Dance 44 and ending 30 days after Jon IX, Dance 44.

Ok, jump to Theon I, Dance 51, which takes place the day after Mors Umber arrives at Winterfell in A Ghost in Winterfell, Dance 46. (A Ghost in Winterfell, Dance 46 spans 4 days with Umber arriving on the 4th.) Arnolf has sent a bird from Stannis's camp, Frey, Manderly, and apparently Ramsay ride out and Theon escapes. Mors's green boys apparently hold the Bolton expeditionary force, while Theon travels to Stannis three days away. Keep in mind that Tycho has just arrived at Winterfell too, from Castle Black in Jon IX, Dance 44 by way of Deepwood Motte. Karstark arrives at Stannis's camp 11 days after The King's Prize, Dance 42 ends, and The Sacrifice, Dance 62, begins 8 days after that. And that's when Theon arrives at Stannis's camp.

Theon I, Winds occurs the day after The Sacrifice, Dance 62, since Stannis hints at the ruse then, and since Ramsay has apparently fallen for it. Assuming the so-called pink letter was drafted by Ramsay, Jon XIII, Dance 69 must follow Theon I, Winds by at least nine days, 7 days of battle and 2 days for the raven. Mors Umber was outside the gates. We learned in Theon I, Winds that Aenys Frey was killed when Freys fell into a trap. However, we also learn that Hosteen survived. Stannis noted that Mors's green boys would not be able to hold Bolton's expeditionary force. And we know Stannis's camp was three days from Winterfell. So, you have an initial battle outside the gates on Day 1, followed by 2 more days of skirmishes as Mors's boys fall back to the crofter's village, and Stannis's outriders fight Bolton's vanguard. Then a big battle on Day 4. The return to Winterfell would account for the remaining three days. Perhaps Ramsay was exaggerating how long the "battle" actually lasted a bit (for our benefit from the storyteller), or perhaps his force was harried on the way back.

The George loves the cliffhanger above all I think. Taking what would have been Theon II, Dance out and making it Theon I, Winds added to the cliffhanger that was Jon XIII, Dance. Not only are we led to believe that Jon is dead, but also Stannis.

So, the time between Jon IX, Dance 44 and Jon X, Dance 49 should be at least 54 days to allow Theon I, Dance 51; The Sacrifice, Dance 62; and Theon, Winds to follow in proper order. And that works out nicely with Tycho's travel from Castle Black to Deepwood Motte and on to Winterfell, leaving him 47 days to arrive at Mors's camp the day Theon escapes.

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It is anyone's guess as to who or whom "wrote" or "compiled" the pink letter. However, I do think Ramsay is still alive and had a hand in it. I also think Stannis is 50/50 dead or alive. The wild card in this is Mance. I do not trust him. He is not as honorable and as good as some have made him out to be. He is fierce, cunning and he has a grudge against Jon and Stannis for sure. Might he have switched sides or made a deal? If I had to guess, the letter was written by Ramsay on the advice/input of Mance Rayder. Ramsay did not say he was dead but was a prisoner so, Mance talked, willingly or after some "convincing" to do so, he did.

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19 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

When he released Theon, Winds, the George said that the spoiler chapter preceded Jon XIII, Dance, and suggested that the reader should infer that from the context of the events and dialogue described. 

Are you sure? I don't remember Martin saying that... I do remember something along the lines of TWoW Theon I taking place before the end of ADwD, but not before Jon XIII. 

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6 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Are you sure? I don't remember Martin saying that... I do remember something along the lines of TWoW Theon I taking place before the end of ADwD, but not before Jon XIII. 

Jon XIII essentially is at the end of ADWD.  Certainly the North part of the story.

Back to the OP, I think that Jon is more useful to Stannis where he is.  If Stannis is able to evict the Boltons from Winterfell, he would stand a decent chance of gaining the Northern lords' support.  One of their concerns has been whether he has the power to accomplish anything, and this would answer that question.  If he loses, I doubt Jon's presence would help.  

And if Jon leaves the NW,, then they would need a new LC.  Stannis is very much concerned about the fight against the Others.  Jon is taking the threat seriously, trying to make preparations to meet them.  He also is on the same page with regards to settling the Wildlings south of the Wall.  Given widespread attitudes in the NW, there is the likelihood that a new commander would not support these policies.  Given that, it makes more sense for Stannis to keep Jon at the Wall, where he can provide support for what Stannis has said is the true battle

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6 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

I don't know about Myrtle as a man, but Odin, Loki and Thor all dressed as woman at different times in order to infiltrate a situation to get some thing back that was rightfully theirs. The tales vary with the reasons, but that is essentially why. Odin does it to preform seidr, which is almost strictly an activity for woman only... kinda like being a spearwife in ASOIAF.

Plus, there is Morna who offers to be Jon's man or woman, whatever he prefers. Now, this probably less directly applies to Morna because she is a female and has given birth, but it seems to show that this idea is within the wildlings as needed.

Anyway, back to the OP! :commie:

I mentioned this in another recent PL thread and maybe wanted to also share it here. This thread has been pretty good, by the way, with everyone staying rather conversational, even when disagreeing.

Anyway again, I am mostly in the Ramsay wrote the letter camp, with input from a possible tortured Mance... but I have been surprising myself recently and have started leaning to this theory. I still have questions about certain motivational aspects, but I can see both sides. I added this to another thread which is what helped pull me into the Stannis camp ;), and then @sweetsunray and I had a brief discussion after:

During a recent re-read of the  Theon/TWOW sample chapter , this line struck out to me...

  Reveal hidden contents

This is virtually the same consistent dialgogue that is in the Pink Letter... hastily sealed with a non-stamped glob, and Jon doesn't know who the hell "Reek" is. And the other info given plays into other Stannis strategic plans as well.

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King Beyond the Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.  

 

The only other reason I can think of that Stannis may be asking for Val (and monster) is what Sam says about the situation: (sorry, italics won't turn off :angry2:)

A Feast for Crows - Samwell I

"Why not?" asked Pyp. "She wants to have your children. Maybe we should call you Sam the Seducer."
Sam reddened. King Stannis had plans for Val, he knew; she was the mortar with which he meant to seal the peace between the northmen and the free folk. "I don't have time for archery today, I need to go see Jon."

 

Really nice catch on the Sam chapter. It shows that Stannis puts a value on Val, and therefore it makes sense that he would mention her in the letter. I can't see why Ramsay would want her. The queen, Shireen, Mel, sure. But the wildling princess and babe?

5 hours ago, bemused said:

The theory was put forth by @redriver, years ago.. A bunch of us had been pondering the odd behavior of the Liddle that Bran encountered on his way north (even Theon opined that the Ned's bannermen would fight for the honour of protecting and helping his sons)..

This led him to investigate further. It seems the Liddle in the cave was in fact the Liddle (Jojen addresses him as "my lord" and he doesn't deny it)... and Liddle makes mention of dreaming his old mother, nine years dead, had come back, but his dream wasn't true...Then gaunt, grey haired, deep-voiced Myrtle shows up with Mance as his mother.. when Mance had asked for young spearwives.

We see the clan leaders, as well as their men take action after Jon sends Stannis their way. Flint and Norrey go to Jon, the Wull goes with Stannis, and so does Middle Liddle. ... Though The Liddle and his youngest son are in the appendices of ADWD as characters, they're not in the text.. but then the battle(s?) for WF was originally slated for Dance, not Winds.

@redriver laid this and more out well enough to convince me.

I remember being quite convinced at the time too. Gotta dig it up for a read again. There is also the whole question of why Rowan gets angry with Theon's mention of Lord Eddard's words. Do wildlings have that much respect for the Ned or is Rowan a northerner too? I also can't remember if that question was answered, but here is the quote:

"Winter is coming …"

Rowan gave him a hard look. "You have no right to mouth Lord Eddard's words. Not you. Not ever. After what you did—"

3 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Are you sure? I don't remember Martin saying that... I do remember something along the lines of TWoW Theon I taking place before the end of ADwD, but not before Jon XIII. 

From what I remember GRRM said that Theon I takes place "before some of the events at the end of ADwD." But Jon XIII is one of the only end chapters that is relevant to Theon I, as it obviously happened after Asha's last chapter, and the skin-changed ravens means it happened after Bran's last chapter. I can't see GRRM even saying that if it takes place after Jon XIII but before some other final chapter it has no relevance to, like Dany's last chapter or whatever.

 

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5 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As to the timeline of events in the North in Dance, working backwards...

The final chapter in the North should be Jon XIII, Dance 69. Tormund returns after settling his band at Oakenshield, which is within a day's march from Castle Black. Since he arrived in the afternoon that would have been his return day. The day before, he would have marched to Oakenshield "a day or two" after passing the Wall. Since Jon apparently learned of the dire condition at Hardhome before Tormund left, Tormund probably left the following day. So Dance Jon XIII, 69 should follow Jon II, Dance 58 by 2, maybe 3 days.

Jon XII, Dance 58 should follow Jon XI, Dance 53 by 3 days since we're told that's when Tormund will pass the Wall. Jon XI, Dance 53 should occur the day after Jon X, Dance 49, since that's when Jon deals with Tormund, and Tormund arrives the evening before.

Jon X, Dance 49 should follow Jon IX, Dance 44 by at least 9 days since Flint and Norrey arrive for the Thenn-Karstark wedding. We need one day for the ravens to fly to the mountains, and another eight or so for the men to reach the Wall. Given that one showed up with a wet nurse, I think we should space this from 10 to 14 days.

Then we have Jon IX, Dance 44, which we can use to synchronize with The Turncloak, Dance 41 and The Kin'g's Prize, Dance 42, since Jon notes that the snows have moved south. In The Turncloak, Dance 41, the snows begin to fall at Winterfell, and the snows begin to fall in the Wolfswood four days after the The King's Prize, Dance 42 begins.

Now going forward... 

So, we have The King's Prize, Dance 42 beginning 3 days before Jon IX, Dance 44 and ending 30 days after Jon IX, Dance 44.

Ok, jump to Theon I, Dance 51, which takes place the day after Mors Umber arrives at Winterfell in A Ghost in Winterfell, Dance 46. (A Ghost in Winterfell, Dance 46 spans 4 days with Umber arriving on the 4th.) Arnolf has sent a bird from Stannis's camp, Frey, Manderly, and apparently Ramsay ride out and Theon escapes. Mors's green boys apparently hold the Bolton expeditionary force, while Theon travels to Stannis three days away. Keep in mind that Tycho has just arrived at Winterfell too, from Castle Black in Jon IX, Dance 44 by way of Deepwood Motte. Karstark arrives at Stannis's camp 11 days after The King's Prize, Dance 42 ends, and The Sacrifice, Dance 62, begins 8 days after that. And that's when Theon arrives at Stannis's camp.

Theon I, Winds occurs the day after The Sacrifice, Dance 62, since Stannis hints at the ruse then, and since Ramsay has apparently fallen for it. Assuming the so-called pink letter was drafted by Ramsay, Jon XIII, Dance 69 must follow Theon I, Winds by at least nine days, 7 days of battle and 2 days for the raven. Mors Umber was outside the gates. We learned in Theon I, Winds that Aenys Frey was killed when Freys fell into a trap. However, we also learn that Hosteen survived. Stannis noted that Mors's green boys would not be able to hold Bolton's expeditionary force. And we know Stannis's camp was three days from Winterfell. So, you have an initial battle outside the gates on Day 1, followed by 2 more days of skirmishes as Mors's boys fall back to the crofter's village, and Stannis's outriders fight Bolton's vanguard. Then a big battle on Day 4. The return to Winterfell would account for the remaining three days. Perhaps Ramsay was exaggerating how long the "battle" actually lasted a bit (for our benefit from the storyteller), or perhaps his force was harried on the way back.

The George loves the cliffhanger above all I think. Taking what would have been Theon II, Dance out and making it Theon I, Winds added to the cliffhanger that was Jon XIII, Dance. Not only are we led to believe that Jon is dead, but also Stannis.

So, the time between Jon IX, Dance 44 and Jon X, Dance 49 should be at least 54 days to allow Theon I, Dance 51; The Sacrifice, Dance 62; and Theon, Winds to follow in proper order. And that works out nicely with Tycho's travel from Castle Black to Deepwood Motte and on to Winterfell, leaving him 47 days to arrive at Mors's camp the day Theon escapes.

Thanks. I know some people have put a lot of effort into putting an accurate timeline together from all the various clues in every chapter.

But my question is this, if Ramsay did indeed ride out behind the Freys, as Theon suggests he will, then how was Stannis able to fool him about the result of the battle using Tybald's ravens? The only way it would work is if Ramsay stayed at Winterfell and left the Freys and Manderly forces go to fight Stannis without him. And considering the tension between the Freys and the Manderlys, I think Roose would much rather have a Bolton present.

Ramsay cannot take part in or even witness the battle and get misled by Tybald's ravens at the same time. If Ramsay rides out he either a ) returns victorious, making the events of the pink letter true. b ) returns defeated but aware that the battle is lost. c ) doesn't return at all. So the theory that Ramsay wrote the letter after receiving false information from Stannis depends on Ramsay staying in Winterfell, waiting for news of the battle, and then sending the letter. I find that unlikely though. 

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10 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Thanks. I know some people have put a lot of effort into putting an accurate timeline together from all the various clues in every chapter.

But my question is this, if Ramsay did indeed ride out behind the Freys, as Theon suggests he will, then how was Stannis able to fool him about the result of the battle using Tybald's ravens? The only way it would work is if Ramsay stayed at Winterfell and left the Freys and Manderly forces go to fight Stannis without him. And considering the tension between the Freys and the Manderlys, I think Roose would much rather have a Bolton present.

Ramsay cannot take part in or even witness the battle and get misled by Tybald's ravens at the same time. If Ramsay rides out he either a ) returns victorious, making the events of the pink letter true. b ) returns defeated but aware that the battle is lost. c ) doesn't return at all. So the theory that Ramsay wrote the letter after receiving false information from Stannis depends on Ramsay staying in Winterfell, waiting for news of the battle, and then sending the letter. I find that unlikely though. 

There haven't been that many chapters too put clues together. In fact ardent their only too jobs chapter in a dance of dragons and Theons.

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2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

From what I remember GRRM said that Theon I takes place "before some of the events at the end of ADwD." But Jon XIII is one of the only end chapters that is relevant to Theon I, as it obviously happened after Asha's last chapter, and the skin-changed ravens means it happened after Bran's last chapter. I can't see GRRM even saying that if it takes place after Jon XIII but before some other final chapter it has no relevance to, like Dany's last chapter or whatever.

Here is the intro from the George...

Quote

 

Dec. 28th, 2011 at 4:46 PM

As a Christmas gift to all my loyal fans and readers, I've just replaced the (long published) sample chapters from A DANCE WITH DRAGONS on my website with an unpublished sample chapter from THE WINDS OF WINTER.

Go ye to "Ice & Fire Sample" on my website and enjoy.

(The chronology, as usual, is tricky. This chapter will be found eventually at the beginning of WINDS, but as you will be able to tell from context, it actually takes place before some of the chapters at the end of DANCE).

Love it or hate it, please do NOT discuss it here. Any such posts will be deleted. There are plenty of great places on the net for such discussions, so take your thoughts, comments, and analysis to Westeros or the Tower of the Hand or the Podcast of Ice and Fire, or your favorite foreign language site.

(FYI, there will be a different sample chapter from WINDS OF WINTER included at the end of the paperback edition of A DANCE WITH DRAGONS when that is published next July).

Happy holidays, all. Keep reading.

 

http://grrm.livejournal.com/257002.html

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I used to think it was Stannis too, but story wise it doesn't make sense if you look at the bigger picture. 

I believe the most ambitious and most influential person at the wall who wants to harm Jon is Selyse.

Not to mention that some royal blood would be good to resurrect jon.

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2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Thanks. I know some people have put a lot of effort into putting an accurate timeline together from all the various clues in every chapter.

But my question is this, if Ramsay did indeed ride out behind the Freys, as Theon suggests he will, then how was Stannis able to fool him about the result of the battle using Tybald's ravens? The only way it would work is if Ramsay stayed at Winterfell and left the Freys and Manderly forces go to fight Stannis without him. And considering the tension between the Freys and the Manderlys, I think Roose would much rather have a Bolton present.

Ramsay cannot take part in or even witness the battle and get misled by Tybald's ravens at the same time. If Ramsay rides out he either a ) returns victorious, making the events of the pink letter true. b ) returns defeated but aware that the battle is lost. c ) doesn't return at all. So the theory that Ramsay wrote the letter after receiving false information from Stannis depends on Ramsay staying in Winterfell, waiting for news of the battle, and then sending the letter. I find that unlikely though. 

Not necessarily. That Ramsay remained in Winterfell is possible, but through Theon in the Winds spoiler the storyteller suggests that we should expect Ramsay to ride out as well. Stannis would have had to have been prepared for that, so his ruse must have allowed for that possibility. 

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4 hours ago, Northern_Star said:

Not to mention that some royal blood would be good to resurrect jon.

In the books, the only one requesting royal blood is Melisandre, but not for resurrections.

The only one resurrecting someone in the books are Thoros of Myr and Beric Doncdarrion, without any royal blood involved.

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11 hours ago, bemused said:

The theory was put forth by @redriver, years ago.. A bunch of us had been pondering the odd behavior of the Liddle that Bran encountered on his way north (even Theon opined that the Ned's bannermen would fight for the honour of protecting and helping his sons)..

This led him to investigate further. It seems the Liddle in the cave was in fact the Liddle (Jojen addresses him as "my lord" and he doesn't deny it)... and Liddle makes mention of dreaming his old mother, nine years dead, had come back, but his dream wasn't true...Then gaunt, grey haired, deep-voiced Myrtle shows up with Mance as his mother.. when Mance had asked for young spearwives.

We see the clan leaders, as well as their men take action after Jon sends Stannis their way. Flint and Norrey go to Jon, the Wull goes with Stannis, and so does Middle Liddle. ... Though The Liddle and his youngest son are in the appendices of ADWD as characters, they're not in the text.. but then the battle(s?) for WF was originally slated for Dance, not Winds.

@redriver laid this and more out well enough to convince me.

Interesting speculation with several repercussions.

I agree that the Liddle is THE LIDDLE. It always seemed so, he knew too much to be a common guy.

Indeed it's strange that the middle Liddle is with Stannis and The Liddle is nowhere to be seen.

Among the repercussions:

1) Mance didn't go straight down the king road, nor through the East route where Alys Karstark was riding (even he knew it was likely the place to find her). He went further West, through the mountains as Bran before him. Corollary: It was never his mission to find "Arya" in her way to Castle Black, but to infiltrate Winterfell (something I strongly suspect)

2) If Mance met The Liddle, he may know that Bran is alive. Corollary: Stannis MUST know, unless the clans are hiding this fact from him

3) If Mance went the west route, through the mountains, he may have met with Stannis there, so Stannis is well aware of Mance in Winterfell and his plans.

4) The sentence about 'six whores' in the PL doesn't make sense is one of them is a man. Either Ramsay is lying about having them skinned or someone else wrote that sentence.

Downside: Mance departed from CB well after Stannis did. Although a small party can move fast, I wonder if it's enough to reach Winterfell in time.

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On 1/6/2017 at 3:37 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I agree that he likely authorized the burning of Rattleshirt, but we don't know for sure that he did. 

Rattleshirt in Stannis war council? WTF? I missed many things in the books, but this one caught my eye immediately. I didn't know it was Mance of course, but I suspected something very weird. Then you have Rattleshirt effortlessly beating Jon in sword practice.  Uh?

Ah... Then I understood Val meekly standing besides Stannis during the burning, after trying to escape and kill some guards, after all the begging she did to spare Mance's life. Afterwards she behaves exemplary!

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3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Interesting speculation with several repercussions.

I agree that the Liddle is THE LIDDLE. It always seemed so, he knew too much to be a common guy.

Indeed it's strange that the middle Liddle is with Stannis and The Liddle is nowhere to be seen.

Among the repercussions:

1) Mance didn't go straight down the king road, nor through the East route where Alys Karstark was riding (even he knew it was likely the place to find her). He went further West, through the mountains as Bran before him. Corollary: It was never his mission to find "Arya" in her way to Castle Black, but to infiltrate Winterfell (something I strongly suspect)

2) If Mance met The Liddle, he may know that Bran is alive. Corollary: Stannis MUST know, unless the clans are hiding this fact from him

3) If Mance went the west route, through the mountains, he may have met with Stannis there, so Stannis is well aware of Mance in Winterfell and his plans.

4) The sentence about 'six whores' in the PL doesn't make sense is one of them is a man. Either Ramsay is lying about having them skinned or someone else wrote that sentence.

Downside: Mance departed from CB well after Stannis did. Although a small party can move fast, I wonder if it's enough to reach Winterfell in time.

I think Bran's Liddle is marching with Stannis's host. The Liddle encountered by Bran was not personally described. But as far as we know old characters are described as old in ASOIAF. That probably means Bran's Liddle was not THE Liddle since THE Liddle had three sons, at least two of which were grown. Bran knew him for a Liddle because he wrapped some food for them in a green & white cloth and he wore a clasp of gold and bronze wrought in the shape of a pinecone. That the Liddle's clasp was gold and bronze clearly suggests that he was relatively affluent. I think it implies that he was one of the Liddle's sons. We know from the Appendix to Dance that the Liddle has three sons. The Big Liddle seems to be one of Jon's preferred brothers in the NW. We don't know anything about Little Liddle other than he's the youngest. But we do know that Morgan "Middle" Liddle was the northman who took down Asha at DW and continued on with Stannis to WF. Since he was wearing a byrnie of mail Asha assumed right away that he was a chief. Unfortunately she never notices a gold and bronze clasp. She noticed he was big, bald & bearded and fought with an axe. Unfortunately, none of those things are noted by Bran. But I did see these two similarities:

From Bran II, Storm --The Liddle took out a knife and whittled at a stick.

From The Wayward Bride, Dance --His axe was shivering her shield, cracking the wood on the downswing, tearing off long pale splinters when he wrenched it back.

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55 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

She noticed he was big, bald & bearded and fought with an axe. Unfortunately, none of those things are noted by Bran.

Well, if Morgan 'Middle' Liddle is described as such, it's very likely that his brother shares similar physical characteristics and never, ever would pass under a woman disguise.

 

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I do think many Pink Letter theories are well-evidenced, and I have seen many candidates put forward: Stannis, Barbrey, Mance, many, many, northern lords...

But for me, the question is never "who wrote the letter", but rather, "what is true." For example, when Tormund and Jon are discussing it, the only hint the reader gets is the fact that if someone had a quill and a maester, they could say whatever they liked - as in, what has actually happened at Winterfell. In terms of the author of the letter, we get no such hint that it's forged - the style and tone and appearance is all like Ramsay would usually write, even in spite of Jon and Ramsay not having communicated before.

Really, I think it would be very, very out of character for Stannis to write such a letter. So the man who is almost notorious for how dutiful and honour-abiding he can be deceives a staunch ally? I don't know, he would have to be pushed very far. He also doesn't know about Tormund so he can't know of any significant forces to recruit through such deception, and it seems very out of character for Stannis to play such a gambit -can he really predict Jon's "breaking point" where he will put House Stark above the Night's Watch, considering he's rejected Stannis' offers before?

In my opinion the letter is usually over-analysed to the extent that many theories about authorship require sub-theories and it all becomes more complex than it probably will be. 

Spoilers for Theon I TWOW, but my favourite theory is that Ramsay sent the letter after treacherous Karstark soldiers went to WF with Ice, that Stannis was dead and told Ramsay both Jeyne "Arya" and Theon were at the Wall. But then again there are many variables and I wouldn't bet on anything.

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