Stannis wrote the Pink Letter

[three-eyed monkey]

6 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

4) The sentence about 'six whores' in the PL doesn't make sense is one of them is a man. Either Ramsay is lying about having them skinned or someone else wrote that sentence.

 

This is a very good point, but it depends on whether one of the spearwives really is a man. It seems clear that Mance's "old mother", Myrtle, who is described as gaunt and grey is not one of the young and pretty spearwives that Edd supplied from Mole's Town. But I'm not so sure we can be certain that she's a he.

On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the north. "Young ones, and pretty," Mance had said. The unburnt king supplied some names, and Dolorous Edd had done the rest, smuggling them from Mole's Town.

Up near the dais, Abel was plucking at his lute and singing "Fair Maids of Summer." He calls himself a bard. In truth he's more a pander. Lord Manderly had brought musicians from White Harbor, but none were singers, so when Abel turned up at the gates with a lute and six women, he had been made welcome. "Two sisters, two daughters, one wife, and my old mother," the singer claimed, though not one looked like him. "Some dance, some sing, one plays the pipe and one the drums. Good washerwomen too."

When Squirrel returned, the other four were with her: gaunt grey-haired Myrtle…

13 minutes ago, Vaith said:

Really, I think it would be very, very out of character for Stannis to write such a letter. So the man who is almost notorious for how dutiful and honour-abiding he can be deceives a staunch ally?

This keeps coming up because readers keep buying the image Stannis projects rather than looking a bit deeper. Perhaps that is a result of not having a Stannis pov? I don't know, but if you ask me it's not that people who write these theories over-analyse the book, it is more likely that the majority of casual readers under-analyse the book. Stannis burned the king-beyond-the-wall for all the world to see, as was demanded by the laws of the seven kingdoms, except he clearly didn't. How dutiful and honour-abiding is that?  

[Vaith]

1 minute ago, three-eyed monkey said:

This keeps coming up because readers keep buying the image Stannis projects rather than looking a bit deeper. Perhaps that is a result of not having a Stannis pov? I don't know, but if you ask me it's not that people who write these theories over-analyse the book, it is more likely that the majority of casual readers under-analyse the book. Stannis burned the king-beyond-the-wall for all the world to see, as was demanded by the laws of the seven kingdoms, except he clearly didn't. How dutiful and honour-abiding is that?  

That's true, I suppose I was generalising a bit. But I have to say that I think those are different situations because while Mace is a wildling who wanted to invade the Seven Kingdoms, Jon has always been an ally to him - and though I suppose he deceives all his men in making them believe Mance is dead, that's different from sheer manipulation.

Again, I do think it could occur in a drastic situation, but while Stannis isn't a picture of honour 24/7, he's not a mindreader. The Pink Letter is a very big gambit - he couldn't predict the point where Jon would agree to join and, as actually happened, there would be huge resentment for an Oathbreaking Lord Commander (again, while Jon had been lenient, it might have been a bit much for Stannis to predict that the black brothers would tolerate outright allegiance to Stannis and sending forces to help in southron affairs).

And again: nobody in Winterfell can predict that there will be a significant fighting force at the Wall.

So yes, deceit is one thing, but in my opinion this would be far too convoluted and chaotic for Stannis to bet on so much. 

[three-eyed monkey]

20 minutes ago, Vaith said:

And again: nobody in Winterfell can predict that there will be a significant fighting force at the Wall.

Stannis doesn't care about a fighting force. He has sent Massey to buy sellswords for the push south. It is Jon he wants. 

[Vaith]

1 minute ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Stannis doesn't care about a fighting force. He has sent Massey to buy sellswords for the push south. It is Jon he wants. 

Ah, sorry, that's just a common part of the theory I've read in other Stannis=Pink Letter author theories.

Reading your post in more detail, it seems a little confusing to me. He needs a Stark puppet ruler for the north, so... he sends Jeyne, whom he believes is Arya, to the Wall with Massey, and then pretends to be Ramsay and threatens to sack Castle Black?

Okay, I can understand that if he's thinking of a better martial candidate, he would prefer Jon to Jeyne/Arya. But this still doesn't explain how Stannis would be sure Jon would react in the way he did, and it doesn't explain why he thought he could pull it off without some in-fighting. And then, if Jon did take all his troops south... and arrived at Winterfell to find that Stannis had won, well, even if he continued deceiving him, making him think that a tricked Ramsay wrote it, well, would it be a given that Jon would then abandon the Night's Watch and be named Lord Stark?

Also, what would happen to Jeyne? If Jon was alive, and met her, of course he would know that she wasn't actually Arya, but let's think of what Stannis thinks is going to happen, considering he doesn't have that knowledge. Would he be so sure that Jon would abandon his vows if he knew that his younger legitimate sister was alive?

Also, you mentioned how in the letter it's mentioned Ramsay wants both "Reek" and his bride. Well, considering Jon doesn't know at all who Reek is, and he isn't going to Castle Black and so can't show up so all will be explained, this is a line which make me doubt a lot of "it's not Ramsay" theories at it would be a futile line in convincing Jon.

I really do think there are just to many variables for Stannis, with the knowledge he has, to think that this situation would work - even for Littlefinger, this is just too much of a gambit.

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Vaith said:

Reading your post in more detail, it seems a little confusing to me. He needs a Stark puppet ruler for the north, so... he sends Jeyne, whom he believes is Arya, to the Wall with Massey, and then pretends to be Ramsay and threatens to sack Castle Black?

Stannis own words explain it quite clearly.

"Your northmen do not know me, have no reason to love me, yet I will need their strength in the battles to come. I need a son of Eddard Stark to win them to my banner."

"What is needed is a Lord of Winterfell. A loyal Lord of Winterfell."

I don't think he sees the Arya option as viable, given that he sent her to the Wall despite the fact that Jon had turned him down. I presume Stannis still wants someone to be his Warden of the North, yet still he sent Arya away. That means whoever Stannis wants, regardless of whether you believe that is still Jon or not, it is clearly not Arya

1 hour ago, Vaith said:

Okay, I can understand that if he's thinking of a better martial candidate, he would prefer Jon to Jeyne/Arya. But this still doesn't explain how Stannis would be sure Jon would react in the way he did, and it doesn't explain why he thought he could pull it off without some in-fighting. And then, if Jon did take all his troops south... and arrived at Winterfell to find that Stannis had won, well, even if he continued deceiving him, making him think that a tricked Ramsay wrote it, well, would it be a given that Jon would then abandon the Night's Watch and be named Lord Stark?

Without Stannis pov we can't be sure how he thinks it will go down, but as I said above, whoever wrote the letter could probably expect one of three reactions from Jon. 1) he does what is demanded and brings the hostages to Winterfell. This would suit Stannis. 2) he reacts the way he did and rides on Winterfell to make Ramsay answer for his words. This too suits Stannis. 3) He does nothing. Not sure who this suits. Certainly not GRRM anyway. Maybe there are other options but these have to be the most likely, as indeed Jon choosing option 2 proved. What happened after that was beyond prediction by either potential author.

And if Jon did come to Winterfell having broken his vows, only to find Stannis victorious and Ramsay dead, and himself misled by a letter from Ramsay who in turn was misled by ravens from Stannis, then Stannis offer of a pardon, legitimacy, and a title would be far preferable to execution as an oath-breaker.

2 hours ago, Vaith said:

Also, what would happen to Jeyne? If Jon was alive, and met her, of course he would know that she wasn't actually Arya, but let's think of what Stannis thinks is going to happen, considering he doesn't have that knowledge. Would he be so sure that Jon would abandon his vows if he knew that his younger legitimate sister was alive?

Stannis is simply returning Jon's sister, the Ned's little girl, something that he probably believes will win him further favour with Jon and the North in general. Stannis would have to assume that there is a good chance Jon, if he rides south, will encounter Arya along the way. But I don't think that would be enough to turn Jon around and send him back to Castle Black.

If Jon was the type of person that was on his way to Winterfell with Ramsay's hostages then he would probably turn Arya around and bring her with him, but of course we know Jon is not that type. No more than he is the type to sit and do nothing. And Stannis knows this too. Jon will be riding south to make Ramsay answer for his words, and getting Arya back will not be enough to stop him because he and Arya will never be safe until the Bolton threat is dealt with. And with Stannis gone, Jon is the only one left to deal the Boltons, even if the odds would seem stacked against him in that situation. But Jon would, essentially, be beyond the point of turning back.

2 hours ago, Vaith said:

Also, you mentioned how in the letter it's mentioned Ramsay wants both "Reek" and his bride. Well, considering Jon doesn't know at all who Reek is, and he isn't going to Castle Black and so can't show up so all will be explained, this is a line which make me doubt a lot of "it's not Ramsay" theories at it would be a futile line in convincing Jon.

 

Jon doesn't know who Reek is. That remains the same no matter who wrote the letter. But remember, this is not a Ramsay quote, this is a Theon quote, as spoken to Stannis. I find the odds that Ramsay would come up with the exact same sentences when he was writing the letter to be a stretch to be honest. Far more likely that Stannis is simply quoting Theon in my opinion.

2 hours ago, Vaith said:

I really do think there are just to many variables for Stannis, with the knowledge he has, to think that this situation would work - even for Littlefinger, this is just too much of a gambit.

The main variable is Jon's character really, and Stannis had time enough to make a judgement on that and obviously believed Jon would react similarly to how he did. Everything else is beyond his control so can't really be accounted for. Jon might have marched to Hardhome. Jon might slip in the ice and break his neck. Stannis can't build such things into his plan. He writes the letter and hopes Jon reacts to it the way he thinks Jon will. As it happens, it did not work out, because of events triggered by the letter itself, so I suppose you could say the plan backfired. Or if you think Ramsay wrote it then it accomplished more than he could have hoped for. 

[bemused]

On 1/6/2017 at 1:09 PM, rotting sea cow said:

Also @The Fattest Leech

IMHO, of all arguments about the Pink Letter being from Stannis, the similarity of these sentences is among the weakest (i.e. I want my bride back, I want my Reek). Theon is simply echoing Ramsay's psychopathic way of thinking.

To my mind this is what makes it so strong.. it doesn't require Ramsay to have chanced to repeat those exact words to anyone. Theon's ability to predict Ramsay so well comes from a long, painfully-learned lesson. Theon's sentence sounds like Ramsay's character (not words).. The rest of the letter doesn't really sound like him, either (IMO)

I did a breakdown of how I think the letter would work as written by Stannis and edited by Thorne. I'll dig it up post it . 

18 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

There is also the whole question of why Rowan gets angry with Theon's mention of Lord Eddard's words. Do wildlings have that much respect for the Ned or is Rowan a northerner too? I also can't remember if that question was answered

I think the most prevalent opinion is that she's Mors' stolen daughter (or her daughter).. I prefer one of the Greatjon's daughters, but all are possibilities.

18 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

But my question is this, if Ramsay did indeed ride out behind the Freys, as Theon suggests he will, then how was Stannis able to fool him about the result of the battle using Tybald's ravens? The only way it would work is if Ramsay stayed at Winterfell and left the Freys and Manderly forces go to fight Stannis without him. And considering the tension between the Freys and the Manderlys, I think Roose would much rather have a Bolton present.

Ramsay cannot take part in or even witness the battle and get misled by Tybald's ravens at the same time. If Ramsay rides out he either a ) returns victorious, making the events of the pink letter true. b ) returns defeated but aware that the battle is lost. c ) doesn't return at all. So the theory that Ramsay wrote the letter after receiving false information from Stannis depends on Ramsay staying in Winterfell, waiting for news of the battle, and then sending the letter. I find that unlikely though. 

Yes, I'd say extremely unlikely... Roose initially intended to send the Frey and Manderly forces alone against Stannis.. conserving his own men (as usual). Once the escape was discovered, he'd have to send Ramsay as well, but  he'd hold him back long enough to make sure that Freys, Manderlys and Stannis had time to at least damage each other severely first (probably sending Ramsay in mop-up position). I don't think Roose would want Ramsay in the main battle, perhaps because, as he tells Theon ..."..  I have seen my bastard fight. He is not entirely to blame. Reek was his tutor, the first Reek, and Reek was never trained at arms. Ramsay is ferocious, I will grant you, but he swings that sword like a butcher hacking meat.”  ...Roose needs Ramsay to live and regain "Arya" to cement the Bolton claim to WF.

The raven sent to Winterfell would be intended to fool Roose. Ramsay could be fooled in the field (as I suggested upthread) by showing him a body in Stannis' armour and Lightbringer (Ramsay might even dictate the victory letter to Roose, himself.) Even before the wedding, he was itching to take the battle to Stannis. Now he'd be consumed with hunting down "Arya" and Reek.

18 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

 We learned in Theon I, Winds that Aenys Frey was killed when Freys fell into a trap. However, we also learn that Hosteen survived. Stannis noted that Mors's green boys would not be able to hold Bolton's expeditionary force. And we know Stannis's camp was three days from Winterfell. So, you have an initial battle outside the gates on Day 1, followed by 2 more days of skirmishes as Mors's boys fall back to the crofter's village, and Stannis's outriders fight Bolton's vanguard. Then a big battle on Day 4. The return to Winterfell would account for the remaining three days. Perhaps Ramsay was exaggerating how long the "battle" actually lasted a bit (for our benefit from the storyteller), or perhaps his force was harried on the way back.

(Oops! This was quoting @Lost Melnibonean )

Believing Stannis wrote (the original) letter, I'd suggest :

Day 0.. Tycho reaches WF during horn blowing etc.

Day 1.. the escape ; battle w. Mors at gate..Theon & Jeyne sent on during/after battle , 

Day 2.. Mors' remainders melt away (they could not aid much at Stannis camp)... Freys et al regroup while holes are filled or another gate is unfrozen.(They might not ride out at night)

Day 3.. Expeditionary force leaves WF. Ramsay held back at least 1/2 day, maybe as much as a day.

Day 4.. Ramsay on his way ..Tycho, Theon, Jeyne arrive evening at Stannis' camp

Day 5.. Theon taken to tree .. Massey et al depart.. Stannis prepares

Day 6 through Day 7.. Stannis prepares .. Battle takes place .. Ramsay arrives to find Stannis dead, perhaps sends raven to Roose, then follows Massey's party.. Stannis sends raven to Jon (and perhaps to Roose). 

To Jon, seven days of battle must sound like an extreme exaggeration. He doesn't say the letter is all true, he says "there is truth in there".. but however long the battle actually took, the letter was apparently written post-battle and Jon would have a good idea of how long a raven would take to fly to CB. We know he would understand that the Boltons must have Arya to stake their claim on WF (we've just seen a parallel example in Alys and Cregan Karstark). I think Jon would conclude that Ramsay must be on his way after her.. Jon also knows how long it would take to ride to CB, and would be able to take the weather into consideration. So he would be able to make a fairly good estimation of when Ramsay would arrive and how long he has to mount a defense.

He wouldn't have a clear picture of when "Arya" escaped, but since "Ramsay" believes Jon has her, Jon knows she has a head start.  For me, getting this information to Jon is Stannis' prime motive, knowing the threat Ramsay would pose to CB, and thus the stability of the wall, the safety of his heir and Mel, his loan from the IB, etc. He trusts Jon's strategic abilities and hopes Mel can clarify the situation for him in her flames.  

[kissdbyfire]

6 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, if Morgan 'Middle' Liddle is described as such, it's very likely that his brother shares similar physical characteristics and never, ever would pass under a woman disguise.

 

Not necessarily, there are plenty of siblings that look nothing like each other. Even in-story, we have Arya and Sansa/Bran/Robb for instance. 

[Clegane'sPup]

1 hour ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Jon doesn't know who Reek is. That remains the same no matter who wrote the letter.

This is one of the things that pluck’s my nerve about the letter. There is nuttin’ that suggests that Jon would know who Reek actually is. Also the line “Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it”  gnaws at me.

The Bolton’s are known for flaying not cutting out someone’s heart and eating it.

SoS Jon II Styr scowled. "His heart may still be black."  "Then cut it out." Mance turned to Rattleshirt.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

This is one of the things that pluck’s my nerve about the letter. There is nuttin’ that suggests that Jon would know who Reek actually is. Also the line “Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it”  gnaws at me.

 

The Bolton’s are known for flaying not cutting out someone’s heart and eating it.

SoS Jon II Styr scowled. "His heart may still be black."  "Then cut it out." Mance turned to Rattleshirt.

Mance says that, sure, but it seems a relatively common turn of phrase in Westeros.

 Sandor ~ "I'll be sure and tell him that, before I cut his heart out."

Blackfish ~ "Much as I would welcome the chance to take that golden sword away from you and cut out your black heart, your promises are worthless."

Tyrion ~ Tyrion wanted to slap him, to spit in his face, to draw his dagger and cut the heart out of him and see if it was made of old hard gold, the way the smallfolks said.

Davos ~ "A knife to cut out Melisandre's heart. If she has one."

And even Jon himself ~ If he abandoned her to return to his duty, the Magnar might cut her heart out.

 

But I agree, flaying is definitely more the Bolton's style.

[bemused]

13 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think Bran's Liddle is marching with Stannis's host. The Liddle encountered by Bran was not personally described. But as far as we know old characters are described as old in ASOIAF. That probably means Bran's Liddle was not THE Liddle since THE Liddle had three sons, at least two of which were grown. Bran knew him for a Liddle because he wrapped some food for them in a green & white cloth and he wore a clasp of gold and bronze wrought in the shape of a pinecone. That the Liddle's clasp was gold and bronze clearly suggests that he was relatively affluent. I think it implies that he was one of the Liddle's sons. We know from the Appendix to Dance that the Liddle has three sons. The Big Liddle seems to be one of Jon's preferred brothers in the NW. We don't know anything about Little Liddle other than he's the youngest. But we do know that Morgan "Middle" Liddle was the northman who took down Asha at DW and continued on with Stannis to WF. Since he was wearing a byrnie of mail Asha assumed right away that he was a chief. Unfortunately she never notices a gold and bronze clasp. She noticed he was big, bald & bearded and fought with an axe. Unfortunately, none of those things are noted by Bran. But I did see these two similarities:

From Bran II, Storm --The Liddle took out a knife and whittled at a stick.

From The Wayward Bride, Dance --His axe was shivering her shield, cracking the wood on the downswing, tearing off long pale splinters when he wrenched it back.

@rotting sea cow...

George is often, if not misleading, elusive about characters' ages, e.g. Val, among others - and I find the lack of a description equally elusive.- But Mance calls Myrtle My old mother" and according to the Liddle in the cave  ...  “Some nights I dream of me mother that I buried nine years past,” the man said, “but when I wake, she’s not come back to us.” 

So the fact that he buried her,specifically (not just "me mother, buried nine years past"), suggests that he was the senior family member in charge of such an office, since at least nine years ago. I think that pretty convincingly identifies him as the Liddle.

The whittling/splintering similarities could be intentional misdirection.

6 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

This is one of the things that pluck’s my nerve about the letter. There is nuttin’ that suggests that Jon would know who Reek actually is. Also the line “Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it”  gnaws at me.

The Bolton’s are known for flaying not cutting out someone’s heart and eating it.

SoS Jon II Styr scowled. "His heart may still be black."  "Then cut it out." Mance turned to Rattleshirt.

The identity of "Reek" would be a minor matter to Jon.

Here's my breakdown of the letter, which I think was written by Stannis but altered by Thorne, Marsh & co. I'll try to hide the content to save space.

I don't think Stannis would try to implicate Jon in Mance's survival, but would take the blame himself. As a king, and with Mance his prisoner, he could always have spared Mance , but at the time, didn't want to alienate the NW. Now, he has more important concerns .... Stannis would not think that Jon would read the letter aloud to all and sundry. Stannis insists his

own letters be brought to him unopened. Other letters we've seen Jon receive have been delivered unopened. Jon shares the contents of the "wedding invitation" only after having been asked if the men may know what it says. He complies - everything in that letter would become common knowledge shortly, anyway. 

The conspirators would not assume Jon would read the PL aloud, either... but the letter would be their paper shield - black and white proof that Jon was complicit in sparing Mance, to hold up in their defense, after they killed Jon.

Stannis doesn't try to provoke Jon "to bring a full army" as is often suggested. Stannis doesn't know that Jon can raise any kind of army ( nor would Ramsay or Mance)... He only knows of the NW and 300 wildling fighters and whatever men he left with Selyse (He may not think all of those would follow Jon's orders, or know whether all the wildling fighters are actually at CB .. Jon was trying to re-open the abandoned castles) .. But Stannis would have a good idea of how many men Ramsay would have with him... and CB would be very vulnerable if no-one knew Ramsay is coming.

Of course, Stannis would know there was no need to spell all that out to Jon. Jon recently held the wall against just such an attack (which would have been disastrous without Jon's own warning.) Stannis and Jon have discussed strategy together - Stannis knows / hopes that Jon will read the warning between the lines.

I think Stannis would have written something like this :

Your false king is dead, He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red witch.

Your false king lied. He told the world he burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead he sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.I will have my bride back. 

I have Mance Rayder in a cage for all the north to see.The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back and I want my Reek. ( and maybe..) Do not keep them from me.

(OPTIONAL : Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell... and ... Keep them from me, and I will cut out your heart and eat it. )

Now, here is what we know Jon received, again - with proposed forged additions and changes underlined

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back.I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess.

I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

The one character who has repeatedly tried to goad Jon into an emotional response, by the constant sneering use of "bastard" and by insulting / smearing those close to Jon, is Thorne (and he's had good success with it). .. Mance's use of "bastard", for example, differs in that it seems founded in sarcasm over Jon's ..“Did you see where they put the bastard?”  In fact, he sometimes uses it in trying to give Jon a hint that he's really Mance, not Rattleshirt. ... The Boltons don't know Jon and would have no reason to think he'd be certain to respond to such baiting. He didn't have the reputation of being a hothead while growing up at WF.

Stannis would probably not use "red whore", even though he may know it's common gossip that he sleeps with Mel. Even though he could call Gilly (a hapless victim of incest) a whore, it wouldn't enter his mind to use that term for Mel. In the case of the 6 spearwives / 6 whores, he's maintaining their cover. We don't hear Mance or even Ramsay use "whore" as a personal insult.. OTOH, some men at the wall might think that Jon would be offended by it. Mel has taken his arm in public, stands close to him - for her own reasons, to be sure - but some might think Jon is close to her - thinks more highly of her than he actually does. I'll point out Thorne's quote, on Ygritte... “I suppose it was also the Halfhand who commanded you to fuck this unwashed whore?” Ser Alliser asked with a smirk. 

To paraphrase Jon, I think Thorne's stink is all over the PL.

Re: OPTIONAL LINES :  I don't think Stannis would claim " Your false king's friends are dead, etc." , which would seem to refer to the clans. I can't see what purpose that would serve for him.... But from the conspirator's point of view, it's a claim that might help to excuse the conspirators and turn the clans against Jon (alive or dead), since Jon recommended Stannis try to enlist them.... (Flint and Norrey and their men are still at the wall.)

 I don't know whether Stannis would have made the threat about cutting out and eating Jon's heart. Without "bastard's heart", specifically, it's a fairly common form of threat (usually pretty empty),  used for emphasis ... like Cotter Pyke's threat, after the election - “Lord Snow,” said Cotter Pyke, “if you muck this up, I’m going to rip your liver out and eat it raw with onions.” 

If Stannis used it, "bastard's heart" would have been added by Thorne.

[three-eyed monkey]

I have said in this theory that Jon had 3 general options when he received the letter. 1/ do what the letter says and answer the demands, therefore bringing the hostages demanded to Winterfell. 2// make Ramsay answer for his words, the option he chose. 3// do nothing, meaning stay in Castle Black and see how it plays out.

@aryagonnakill#2 made a good point in his Ramsay thread when he said the only reason Jon reacted the way he did, and chose option 2, was because he had the wildling army to support him, something the author of the letter would not know about and therefore could not factor into the equation.

I accept this point as a fair and valid criticism of the theory, and it is something that has forced me to re-assess the expectations of the letter's author.

The letter informs Jon that Stannis has lost. It then implicates Jon in the Mance affair and the stealing of Ramsay's bride. It next invites Jon to come and get Mance if Jon wants him. Then it makes a list of demands for a number of people. And finally, it tells Jon that if he does not comply, then Ramsay will come for him. Of course all this is written in an antagonistic fashion with use of the term bastard etc.

So what could the author, regardless of who that is for the moment, expect from Jon, leaving the wildling army aside? Well, I think the author of the letter answers that himself.

By telling Jon that Stannis has been defeated and then implicating Jon in the Mance affair, the author of the letter is really forcing Jon to act, and therefore not choose option 3, which is do nothing.

By inviting Jon to come get Mance if he wants him back, the author of the letter is inviting Jon to take option 2, which was come to Winterfell, by whatever means and with whomever he can muster as support, and try get Mance back.

By making a list of demands and threatening Jon if those demands are not met, the author of the letter is telling Jon to choose option 1.

So it seems to me that the author of the letter would be hoping for either of options 1 or 2.

 

 

[three-eyed monkey]

@The Fattest Leech the line from Sam about Stannis' plans for Val really connected things up for me as it is the reason she is included in the letter, in my opinion.

The letter gives Jon an ultimatum, bring them to me or else. With Stannis dead and Mance revealed, Jon's only other option really is to accept the invite to get Mance back. Either one suits Stannis as he places a value on all the people listed in the demands, with the exception of Reek and the bride who he already has but adds to the demands anyway because this is who Ramsay wants and the letter is obviously meant to be from Ramsay.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

I just wanted to take the point about Val a step further, thanks again to the point made by @The Fattest Leech.

It would seem to me that if we combine Stannis vision for Jon, a Lord of  Winterfell that will win the North to his cause, and his vision for Val, someone who will seal a peace between the North and the Freefolk, then he might well consider Val to be the future Lady Jon Stark of Winterfell.

[The Fattest Leech]

1 hour ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I just wanted to take the point about Val a step further, thanks again to the point made by @The Fattest Leech.

It would seem to me that if we combine Stannis vision for Jon, a Lord of  Winterfell that will win the North to his cause, and his vision for Val, someone who will seal a peace between the North and the Freefolk, then he might well consider Val to be the future Lady Jon Stark of Winterfell.

Yeah, I am not sure why Ramsay would want Val? It would have to be based on some info that Mance gave him, under torture or not. If it was Ramsay who wrote the letter, then it is possible that Mance knows of Stannis's plans for Val and Winterfell going together, or, Mance knows of Jon's attraction to Val. There is a lot more to Val than just a pretty face, as I wrote about in my super boring Nymeria thread.

If Stannis wrote the letter, then you can see the new political strength he is trying to build in the north. Stannis realizes along the way to get to the throne, he needs to save the realm first. Winterfell is that critical seat in the north, and there must always be a Stark in Winterfell

Jon has some thoughts about taking Winterfell as well. She is already a bargaining chip for the nobles in Westeros (which she refuses and Jon knows). Whoever gets Winterfell gets Val. They go together... like Val and Ghost, according to Jon.

• Dance/Jon II: "Lonely and lovely and lethal, Jon Snow reflected, and I might have had her. Her, and Winterfell, and my lord father's name. Instead he had chosen a black cloak and a wall of ice. Instead he had chosen honor. A bastard's sort of honor."
  • Jon had to make a hard decision to continue to live as a bastard by forgoing Val, Winterfell and the Stark name. He made the "bastard" decision because he thinks he is a bastard... but Jon Snow still knows nothing at this point in the story.
• Dance/Jon X: Florent's face grew flushed with anger. "So it is true. You mean to keep her for yourself, I see it now. The bastard wants his father's seat."
  The bastard refused his father's seat. If the bastard had wanted Val, all he had to do was ask for her. "You must excuse me, ser," he said. "I need a breath of fresh air." It stinks in here. His head turned. "That was a horn." (... and then Val returns)
  • Note here: You know nothing Jon Snow! He is not a bastard but thinks he is. When he finds out his real heritage and the fact that he is not a bastard, he can accept these things and undoing the "bastards honor" of nothing mentioned above. This is very much like how Gendry got upset with Arya back at the Peach because he feels too "low born" for her because she is a noble girl. Gendry knows nothing, too!
• Dance/Jon I: "Good," King Stannis said, "for the surest way to seal a new alliance is with a marriage. I mean to wed my Lord of Winterfell to this wildling princess."

Ok. As much as some of out there might think this, I am not trying to turn this into another Val thread, I promise, as much as I love the girl. I have one thread going already and JQC started a thread in the general section as well and would be more than happy to discuss Val there.

[three-eyed monkey]

@The Fattest Leech Hey, thanks. I gotta check your thread out. I found JQC's thread, her analysis is always great. Gimme a chance to catch up on your thread and I'll hit you back. I'm only starting to get my head around the Val stuff. But the 'Wildling Princess" is clearly relevant to the pink letter mystery, and relevant to Stannis too. 

[PCK]

I kind of want Winds just to be a book maily featuring a conversation between Jon & Stannis. Those parts of Dance were great. They can just react to everything else going on in Westeros. 

[rotting sea cow]

On 1/4/2017 at 4:00 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

So by the time Stannis has both Theon and Maester Tybald of the Dreadfort in his possession he has everything he needs to write the letter, even if it was possibly Tybald who did the actual writing.

Just came to my mind.

Why Maester Tybald would have a raven trained to fly to Castle Black? He had only three ravens with him, a precious resource if the Karstarks want to coordinate with the Boltons.

Unless Stannis is sitting in Winterfell I find unlikely he has the means to communicate with CB.

[three-eyed monkey]

8 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Just came to my mind.

Why Maester Tybald would have a raven trained to fly to Castle Black? He had only three ravens with him, a precious resource if the Karstarks want to coordinate with the Boltons.

Unless Stannis is sitting in Winterfell I find unlikely he has the means to communicate with CB.

This is a good question to which there are two plausible answers.

In my opinion it is very plausible that Stannis already has his own ravens. Communication is vital to any military campaign, and Stannis is a renowned and experienced military commander. There is no mention of ravens in Stannis baggage train, but considering Stannis is leaving a garrison at Castle Black, including this queen, daughter, and Melisandre, and given Castle Black would have a lot of ravens trained for Castle Black that are of no further use once they arrive, then I don't find it too much of a stretch to assume that Stannis brought ravens with him. We know he is no stranger to writing letters, and has turned to the pen on several occasions already, so it seems a reasonable assumption to me.

But as the text makes no mention of ravens in Stannis baggage train, then personally I am inclined to think that the letter was sent from Winterfell, seven days after Theon I, by which time Stannis has control of the castle.

[rotting sea cow]

On 1/17/2017 at 10:42 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

This is a good question to which there are two plausible answers.

In my opinion it is very plausible that Stannis already has his own ravens. Communication is vital to any military campaign, and Stannis is a renowned and experienced military commander. There is no mention of ravens in Stannis baggage train, but considering Stannis is leaving a garrison at Castle Black, including this queen, daughter, and Melisandre, and given Castle Black would have a lot of ravens trained for Castle Black that are of no further use once they arrive, then I don't find it too much of a stretch to assume that Stannis brought ravens with him. We know he is no stranger to writing letters, and has turned to the pen on several occasions already, so it seems a reasonable assumption to me.

But as the text makes no mention of ravens in Stannis baggage train, then personally I am inclined to think that the letter was sent from Winterfell, seven days after Theon I, by which time Stannis has control of the castle.

Hi, I saw your answer in the Mance PL thread.

Indeed. There are likely no ravens in the Stannis host. Asha doesn't mention it and she mentions the ravens in A. Karstark army. Stannis first letter to Jon went from Deepwood Motte. It is also likely that he sent a letter to A. Karstark from there and scouts were able to spot the position of Stannis host. We got no information about it.

I agree with you that if Stannis is the author he likely sent it from Winterfell, but the letter would have been a very different one. Maybe something along this lines

"Hey Jon, I'm sitting in WF, Bolton's host was smashed in seven days of battle.  The heads of Roose, Arnolf and the Freys are upon the walls of WF. We found Mance Rayder in a cold cage covered with the skins of the seven spearwives. His plot succeed and rescued your sister. Ramsay escaped and he is marching with his remaining army towards CB. I don't have the strength  to give him chase now. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek. Tell Melisandre. Protect the wilding princess and the babe, my queen and my daughter" etc

He may have added something about Robb's wish if he found out. This together with an attack on CB may have freak out the conspirators and wrote a different letter to frame Jon.

saying this. I'm pretty open minded regarding the PL and whatever author's theory needs to fit many details, including material and verbal elements in the letter, logistics, motive, opportunity, character, etc. Stannis writing a letter as received by Jon, to me it doesn't fit in his arc, and would be extremely dangerous and even stupid to write it like that. Mance as I said could pull out this super cunning move and got it blown in his face. It fits in his character, but the logistical elements make it difficult to believe.  Ramsay has all the opportunity and motives but material and verbal elements in the letter don't fit well.

So if you ask me I give it this: 80% Ramsay (with modifications at the Wall), 15% Mance (eventual modifications), 5% Stannis (with heavy modifications at the Wall)

[three-eyed monkey]

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Stannis writing a letter as received by Jon, to me it doesn't fit in his arc, and would be extremely dangerous and even stupid to write it like that.

The letter does fit Stannis arc. A character's arc is driven by whatever that character desires, and what Stannis desires has been made clear in the text several times.

Stannis states quite clearly that he needs Jon to be his loyal Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North, so part of Stannis arc must be his attempt to satisfy that need. We also know that Stannis has a desire to win the Freefolk to his cause. This desire drove him to take a significant risk in ignoring the laws of the Seven Kingdoms and saving Mance using subterfuge. Wining the Wildlings to his cause naturally comes hand-in-hand with a desire for peace between the Willings and the North, and we know Stannis has plans for Val in that regard. So when we piece together the clues we are given in the text then a picture of what Stannis wants clearly emerges. He wants a legitimised son of Eddard Stark to be his loyal Lord of Winterfell, Val to be his Lady Stark to seal a peace between the Wildlings and the North, and presumably Mance to play some part in binding the Wildlings to the cause as well. 

As I have said, we have seen Stannis use subterfuge to get what he wants, most notably in the case of burning "Mance." We have also seen Stannis use letters, in the cases of the incest letter, the letters to the northern lords demanding homage, and the letter to Jon from Deepwood Motte, so Stannis is clearly someone who, like Tywin Lannister, believes a lot can be accomplished with the pen.

So when you put Stannis' clearly stated desires alongside his use of subterfuge and his political use of the pen, then you get the Pink Letter. Neither Ramsay or Mance give us anything as compelling in their arcs by comparison.

I don't believe the letter was altered at the Wall for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, it would essentially mean Jon never received a letter from Stannis, Ramsay, or Mance, but rather received a letter from someone at the Wall. Altering the letter would be extremely difficult. Much better to write a new letter on a new piece of parchment, which gives you the freedom to write whatever you want. So if the original letter, which I agree was read at the Wall before it was delivered to Jon, does not convey the message you want then you must compose a letter that does deliver the message you want, which means it is essentially a different letter, which means you are essentially arguing that Marsh, Thorne, Mel or whoever wrote the letter, loosely based on an original letter from Stannis, Ramsay, or Mance.

Secondly, I believe every line in the letter has a clear purpose when viewed from Stannis point of view, and every person mentioned in the letter has a clear value when viewed from Stannis point of view, and that is not something that can be said for Mance, Ramsay, or anyone else in my opinion.

So I remain at Stannis 100%.