Stannis wrote the Pink Letter

[bemused]

On 1/17/2017 at 4:48 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Just came to my mind.

Why Maester Tybald would have a raven trained to fly to Castle Black? He had only three ravens with him, a precious resource if the Karstarks want to coordinate with the Boltons.

Unless Stannis is sitting in Winterfell I find unlikely he has the means to communicate with CB.

The ravens show clear signs of being under the control of Bran and Bloodraven, and there are clear signs that a they can make a raven fly wherever they want it to go. (Think of how Mormont's raven follows Jon to Tormund's camp, as just one example.)

Because the letter implies that Reek (Theon) is with Ramsay's "bride", I think we can assume that he is. Therefore, something must have happened (will happen in TWoW) to cause Stannis to change his mind and send Theon to Jon as well. It's pretty strongly suggested that Stannis will take Theon to the tree.The Wull and Artos Flint are likely to make the same request as Asha (she possibly got the idea from them and Alysanne).

Never mind "feeding the tree" (we've seen no examples of executions before a weirwood in anywhere near the current time frame) .. What we have been clearly told is that the northmen believe that no man can lie before the tree.. The Wull, Flint (and no doubt Alysanne) all know that Bran and Rickon are alive, which has been kept from Stannis up to this point. They will also know from the fact that Mors' part of the action - drawing some of Roose's strength out from WF - means that whatever the North has planned to take place inside WF is ready to go.

If so, they might well deem it of lesser importance if Theon happened to blurt out the truth now, than that they should stand by and perhaps see him burned for something that was not true.

Following the trip to the tree, Stannis may well know that the boys survived and .. perhaps .. even that Arya is an impostor. In such a case, installing Rickon with a Lord Protector beholden to Stannis might be

There are many ways (only limited by George's imagination) that some sort of demonstration could take place at the tree to convince Stannis that there was at least a 50% chance (or more) that one of those ravens would fly to CB.

If Stannis was to write from WF, I see no reason to continue to pretend that he's dead.. That was designed to deceive Roose.

On 1/19/2017 at 6:52 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

Firstly, it would essentially mean Jon never received a letter from Stannis, Ramsay, or Mance, but rather received a letter from someone at the Wall. Altering the letter would be extremely difficult. Much better to write a new letter on a new piece of parchment, which gives you the freedom to write whatever you want.

Again, I do propose that a new letter was written on new parchment. This makes the process relatively easy - and Jon still receives the information Stannis wrote, only with elaborations.

[rotting sea cow]

2 hours ago, bemused said:

The ravens show clear signs of being under the control of Bran and Bloodraven, and there are clear signs that a they can make a raven fly wherever they want it to go. (Think of how Mormont's raven follows Jon to Tormund's camp, as just one example.)

I think this would be a very dangerous road to take, narratively speaking. Why didn't he/they make the Tywin-Freys RW ravens fly to Robb? Or the ones between Roose and Dreadfort? etc.

 

2 hours ago, bemused said:

Never mind "feeding the tree" (we've seen no examples of executions before a weirwood in anywhere near the current time frame) ..

I agree here, I don't think that Theon will be 'sacrificed' at the tree, but I won't be surprised if it is happens. I would be if he somehow manage to escape to Torrhen's Square as some theories propose.

2 hours ago, bemused said:

What we have been clearly told is that the northmen believe that no man can lie before the tree.. The Wull, Flint (and no doubt Alysanne) all know that Bran and Rickon are alive, which has been kept from Stannis up to this point. They will also know from the fact that Mors' part of the action - drawing some of Roose's strength out from WF - means that whatever the North has planned to take place inside WF is ready to go.

If so, they might well deem it of lesser importance if Theon happened to blurt out the truth now, than that they should stand by and perhaps see him burned for something that was not true.

Well, Theon still deserves death for turning his cloak, killing some of his people and other bad actions. I think that something happened offscreen between Asha and other northmen that make her believe it is a good idea to take him to the tree. Certainer Bran & BR wants that too. What will it happen? I've no idea, but it will be crucial for the battle.

2 hours ago, bemused said:

Following the trip to the tree, Stannis may well know that the boys survived and .. perhaps .. even that Arya is an impostor. In such a case, installing Rickon with a Lord Protector beholden to Stannis might be

This may not be so easy at it sounds because of the different involved factions: 

White Harbor will want Rickon and have all influence in North politics that come with it. Bear Island and others will come up with that famous Robb's will. Some will still want a King in the North. Stannis will insist he is the only true king but otherwise he is happy with Jon as a Warden of the North. Jon will want to fight the Others and bring the wildings into the fold. Theon will grin and point out that Bran is the actual heir of Robb. But he is a tree and inaccessible to all of us, will point out the northmen. Theon will answer that he can communicated with him. Shut up turncloak! At some point the news that Sansa is alive and coming with the Vale knights to claim WF will reach them. Harwin will reveal that Cat is alive as LS and should have a voice on everything. They will also learn that Aegon has taken the IT. Stannis will be wroth and will want to march at once. The northmen don't want to hear any of this, except White Harbor who will offer ships and men in exchange of having Rickon at WF.

And don't forget thousands other complications... In the end they will be interrupted by the Others

 

2 hours ago, bemused said:

If Stannis was to write from WF, I see no reason to continue to pretend that he's dead.. That was designed to deceive Roose.

Again, I do propose that a new letter was written on new parchment. This makes the process relatively easy - and Jon still receives the information Stannis wrote, only with elaborations.

Like you, I'm in the belief that a new letter was forged (in my case based on a letter from Ramsay). But if it was forged, the conspirators could have written nearly everything. Including that Stannis was dead.

 

[GloubieBoulga]

3 hours ago, bemused said:

Never mind "feeding the tree" (we've seen no examples of executions before a weirwood in anywhere near the current time frame)

Perhaps I've misunderstood what you want to say, but it seems that's not true : we have Bran's vision in winterfell's weirwood, which conclude his last chapter from ADWD; we have the execution of Shagwell, by Brienne, at the Whispers, in AFFC; and "off screen", we have Luwin's death in ACOK (the favor he demands to Osha, when he is found dying just under the weirwood).  

[kissdbyfire]

19 minutes ago, GloubieBoulga said:

Perhaps I've misunderstood what you want to say, but it seems that's not true : we have Bran's vision in winterfell's weirwood, which conclude his last chapter from ADWD; we have the execution of Shagwell, by Brienne, at the Whispers, in AFFC; and "off screen", we have Luwin's death in ACOK (the favor he demands to Osha, when he is found dying just under the weirwood).  

I think @bemused means we've seen no sacrifIces to the heart tree in the current timeline. The examples you have given were not intentional sacrifices. And Bran's vision was of something that happened a very, very long time ago. 

[bemused]

8 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I think @bemused means we've seen no sacrifIces to the heart tree in the current timeline. The examples you have given were not intentional sacrifices. And Bran's vision was of something that happened a very, very long time ago. 

Yes, precisely.

[GloubieBoulga]

1 hour ago, bemused said:

 

10 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I think @bemused means we've seen no sacrifIces to the heart tree in the current timeline. The examples you have given were not intentional sacrifices. And Bran's vision was of something that happened a very, very long time ago. 

Yes, precisely.

Thanks, you two ! I had doubt. Indeed, Brienne isn't intentional sacrifice, but I wouldn't swear it for Luwin's case. 

I forgot also Rickard Karstark's execution, which happened in front of the heart tree of Riverrun. 

This is exceptionnal, but the current time is also exceptionnal, and some acts need to be openly exceptionnal. Theon was half-Stark by being hostage and living at Winterfell during 10 years (half of his life). It make a lot of sense for the Northmen to sacrifice him to the trees. But like others, I don't think Theon will die there ^^ (more probably, Stannis will kill the Karstark at his place - during the snow tempest, men can be more easily confounded, and the new Theon looks like an old and twisted man, just like Arnold. This wouldn't be the first "trichery" for Stannis : at the Wall, Rattleshirt burnt with Mance's appearance)

[bemused]

12 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I think this would be a very dangerous road to take, narratively speaking. Why didn't he/they make the Tywin-Freys RW ravens fly to Robb? Or the ones between Roose and Dreadfort? etc.

It's quite possible that all those letters were written  from locations that were not easily observable.

And although it pains me to say it (because I love Bloodraven) - he is utterly ruthless when acting in what he feels/knows to be the right cause.(That was how he got sent to the wall.) Robb was not the leader that will be needed in the North to fight the Others. Jon is the one (assumingwe know his parentage) with the special, hidden bloodlines. ... Or, the mysteries around Roose and the ancient enmity between Stark and Bolton may play into it. ...Also, Bran is a very rare prodigy.. it appears that he is able to make breakthroughs in communications that Bloodraven alone couldn't....Or it may be none of those - but I'm sure George has a reason.

12 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, Theon still deserves death for turning his cloak, killing some of his people and other bad actions. I think that something happened offscreen between Asha and other northmen that make her believe it is a good idea to take him to the tree. Certainer Bran & BR wants that too.

I agree about Asha.. but men have committed acts as bad or worse than Theon and still were allowed to take the black. and he has toyed with the idea himself. I think that's what will be done with him and that's why he's mentioned in the letter (as Reek, of course)... With Jon as LC, Stannis may feel that's the harsher justice.. 

 

12 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

This may not be so easy at it sounds because of the different involved factions: 

All the Northmen want a King in the North. All of them will either want Jon as King or as Regent for Rickon,or as King with (possibly) Bran and Rickon named as his heir. They want autonomy in the North: if Stannis wants the IT and the rest, maybe they'll help him (if the time ever comes after dealing with winter and the Others.) 

I've long thought there's a further tragedy in store for Stannis, involving Shireen, Selyse and Mel (likely to take place at the wall / Nightfort). Perhaps he will wind up taking the black, who knows?

I don't believe Manderly really wants Rickon as ruler (at least not now). I believe he sent Davos an a wild goose chase to delay having to make any agreement with Stannis until the Northern plan is put into action. 

12 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Like you, I'm in the belief that a new letter was forged (in my case based on a letter from Ramsay). But if it was forged, the conspirators could have written nearly everything. Including that Stannis was dead.

I think that would be risky for them.. They no doubt believe it's from Ramsay.. but what if he's lying? They're not even in as good a position as Jon to judge the truth about Stannis and Mance.. They, too, saw Mance burn.. but it's easy to add "and so did you" to "Your false king lied" it's easy to split "I want my bride back and I want my Reek" and add in the names of the people they want to get rid of after "I want my bride back." (so as to be on "the right side" in the eyes of KL) .. Easy to add the odd "Come to WF" and "Bastard" here, there and everywhere to goad Jon into rash action.

Who has had any luck in goading Jon into rash action by calling him bastard and smearing him or those close to him? not Stannis, not Mance , not Bowen (not even Slynt).. only Thorne.

And I still maintain the Boltons wouldn't write, they'd try to recapture the girl and if she made it to the wall first, they'd never trust blackmailing Jon to verify their claim on WF... Everyone knows Mance and the spearwives were Stannis' captives, if Stannis was dead, Jon could plausibly claim ignorance. Everyone saw Mance burn and saw Jon put him out of his misery with an arrow. There could be no trade off.. Jon would have to die. So the Boltons would just turn up at his door. ( I'm quite sure they have him marked for death eventually anyway.

[bemused]

13 hours ago, GloubieBoulga said:

Thanks, you two ! I had doubt. Indeed, Brienne isn't intentional sacrifice, but I wouldn't swear it for Luwin's case. 

The gods of the north were not Luwin's gods and he was the one supposedly asking for the gift of mercy.. it could not be said that he had transgressed against the gods.. Osha had no reason to think he deserved death. So this is in no way a sacrifice.

13 hours ago, GloubieBoulga said:

I forgot also Rickard Karstark's execution, which happened in front of the heart tree of Riverrun. 

Karstark was executed for disobeying a direct order from Robb. (As Slynt was for refusing Jon's order) He had not broken the gods' law. In fact, he tried to make it seem that Robb would be. Kill me and be cursed as a kinslayer.. (words to that effect) This doesn't add up to a sacrifice either.

[Clegane'sPup]

14 hours ago, bemused said:

I believe he sent Davos an a wild goose chase to delay having to make any agreement with Stannis until the Northern plan is put into action. 

A Tornund Har and  arrrg. I thought I was alone in thinking Manderly sent Davos on a wild goose chase. Here's a great big

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, bemused said:

The gods of the north were not Luwin's gods and he was the one supposedly asking for the gift of mercy.. it could not be said that he had transgressed against the gods.. Osha had no reason to think he deserved death. So this is in no way a sacrifice.

Karstark was executed for disobeying a direct order from Robb. (As Slynt was for refusing Jon's order) He had not broken the gods' law. In fact, he tried to make it seem that Robb would be. Kill me and be cursed as a kinslayer.. (words to that effect) This doesn't add up to a sacrifice either.

How do you know the old gods were not Luwin's gods? I agree that neither was a sacrifice, but Luwin's blood watered the tree and fed the old gods. 

[bemused]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

 

5 hours ago, bemused said:

<snippity-snip>..didn't mean to quote myself, too

How do you know the old gods were not Luwin's gods? I agree that neither was a sacrifice, but Luwin's blood watered the tree and fed the old gods. 

You're right of course.. since we don't know Luwin's origins. What I should have said was that Luwin appears to hold to no religion that we know of.. And it seems safe to assume that his blood watered the tree (unless he asked Osha to move him, or some other off-page twist).. But then, anything that is liquid or that can be dissolved and sink into the earth waters the tree and feeds the old gods. One of Stannis' men heaps scorn on the wildlings for worshiping something that dogs piss on  ... Trees and greenseers don't really have much say in the matter. If I was a greenseer/god, I'd much prefer a libation of Tormund's mead..

Sorry, I didn't mean to take us OT. I only meant to say that I have strong doubts that Theon will be sacrificed or executed at the tree, and doubt that it would really do much to strengthen or preserve the "gods" (or earn any kind of boon for the men involved) if he was.

[GloubieBoulga]

6 hours ago, bemused said:

Sorry, I didn't mean to take us OT. I only meant to say that I have strong doubts that Theon will be sacrificed or executed at the tree, and doubt that it would really do much to strengthen or preserve the "gods" (or earn any kind of boon for the men involved) if he was.

We can agree in that point ^^ Stannis is a pragmatic man who uses religion for the interest of his quest, not a believer. If he needs Theon for a better use, he won't kill him. But he needs also Northmen for the battle of Winterfell, to gain the north. And these Northmen want Theon's execution. That's why I suggested that Stannis could executed Arnolf Karstark at the place of Theon, in the "same way" that Rattleshirt was executed at the place of Mance Rayder. No glamor, this time, but the tempest of snow who permit confusions if you don't stay to close.

 

(Luwin was hurt, but not in the godswood : Bran and his friends saw the marks he let when he went to the hearttree to die at its feet. Perhaps Luwin don't believe the old gods, but he studied magic art at the Citadel, and despite the fact he didn't succeed, possibly the events made him change his mind.

Yes, Rickard's death is an execution, but in the saga, executions have also a sacred dimension because they are made in front of the gods - the Sept for Ned, two ordeals for Tyrion, the false Mance, Selyse's uncle (to obtain good winds), aso... in that way, executions are in the same time sacrifices. There is no incompatibility between the two) 

[bemused]

7 hours ago, GloubieBoulga said:

But he needs also Northmen for the battle of Winterfell, to gain the north. And these Northmen want Theon's execution.

I'm not at all sure they do. Stannis assumes that's what they want.

ETA: I'm sure they want justice, but they know much more than Stannis about what Theon actually did, so I think we can't actually know (yet) what justice would be, in their minds. But whatever they think would be fitting, I think they would prefer that justice be meted out by Northern hands.

[Batbob45]

I think that Stannis did write it. The letter content made it look like the person  writing it was  trying hard to seem  psycho. If Ramsey would of wrote it, it would be been less tame then it was. Ramsey would of say something       terrible about Selyse and Shireen. the reason Stannis would of written it is to convince Jon, Wildlings,  and the Night Watch to joined his cause.