That Trip to the Crypts

[John Suburbs]

So Lady Dustin sweeps into the Great Hall one morning and decides she wants to see the crypts. She hates the Starks (well, Ned anyway) and wants to make sure his bones aren't down there, and to look on Brandon as well. Fair enough, but consider this:

Let's say the secret entrance to Winterfell is through the crypts, and the northern conspiracy needs someone on the inside in order to create mayhem with the Freys before the big battle. But there are two problems: first, the crypt door is closed and covered with debris, but more importantly, there is fresh snow all over the ground, and the crypts, being surrounded by the lichyard, would reveal telltale footprints from anyone coming or going. By trudging a team of men through the snow -- "Their small party found themselves slogging through a smooth, unbroken expanse of white that came halfway up their calves." -- they provide the perfect cover for someone trying to make it to the main part of the castle without leaving a trail -- provided they are ready to go almost immediately after LD and party make their exit. It is shortly after their little trek, of course, that the murders begin and Theon encounters the Hooded Man.

Tracks in the snow might also explain how some of the bodies were discovered. The first was tracked down by one of Ramsey's girls outside the castle, so that one is not so strange, and neither is Yellow Dick under the collapsed stable. But the Frey squire was found in the lichyard and Little Walder in the First Keep-- unlikely places for either of them to be or to be dumped if the intent is to stir up trouble. And it is also strange that someone would just happen to stumble upon the bodies in such out-of-the-way places. Is it possible that there are regular patrols in this part of the castle? Maybe, but for what purpose? If you have men on the battlements, why send men marching through the snow to keep any eye on a bunch of ruins? But strange footprints in the snow leading off to who-knows-where might explain how each of them came to be where they were killed and how they were subsequently discovered.

That's all I got. Just food for thought.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Possibly, but why is this a secret entrance that none of the Stark characters seem to know about?

Unless the Hooded Man is Benjen, but even Ned never thinks about a secret tunnel while he's down in the crypts.

Personally, the Hooded Man's probably no one important, or someone, but whatever... we already have Abel's sisters confessing to the murders, so I think we have Mance in cahoots with Manderly (during his "hour-long squats"), and Manderly now in cahoots with Lady Dustin, whose trip to the crypts was to check Manderly's story.

With Lady Dustin on side, Manderly is free to start causing trouble.

I also recall that the murders started around the time of Mors Umber's horn-blowing: perhaps that wasn't just psychological warfare, but also a signal to fellow conspirators inside the castle that some plan of Stannis's was ready to go? After all, the tension inside Winterfell is what causes Bolton to send his forces out to fight Stannis, which is what Stannis wanted. (Possibly what he wanted all along, if Melisandre has anything to do with the weather.)

[Ser Walter of AShwood]

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Possibly, but why is this a secret entrance that none of the Stark characters seem to know about?

Not saying that there is a secret entrance in the crypts, but in AGOT we see Bran climbing around Winterfell, talking about the abandoned parts of the castle, how one part of the castle is connected to a different floor of the castle. This points to a very chaotic layout of the castle. Parts have been added, have been abandoned for a very long time, so who knows what is really going on?

Heck, there could even be secret tunnels in the walls of the old, abandoned part of the castle that nobody knows about, for the simple reason that nobody's been there for decades and the knowledge has simply been lost.

On the other hand, Theon was able to enter Winterfell using a small entrance door, conquering the castle with just a relative small group of ironborn. If the hooded man is someone that came from outside the castle, he could've just as easily used a (not the) similar entrance.

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Possibly, but why is this a secret entrance that none of the Stark characters seem to know about?

Consider that Bran, who has lived in and explored the castle all his life, and has been taught about its history and lore by Old Nan and Maester Luwin, says that there are lower levels to the crypts that have partially collapsed, that he has never seen. So if the secret passage is there it is very probable that most of the Starks themselves don't even know about it. Or at least, if it is for military strategic purposes, perhaps Ned himself knew about it, along with Benjen. Robb might have known, as Ned's heir, but we never got his point of view as a chapter.

I am convinced there is a secret passage. I just find it intriguing who among the living would know about it - other than Bran of course, now that he has access to all the memories of Winterfell's Heart Tree.

EDIT

I reckon Howland Reed knew about it, and if Greywater Watch is the base of the Great Northern conspiracy - Maege Mormont and Gallbart Glover last seen heading into the Neck - then he could have informed any loyalist Stark supporter about it.

EDIT 2

I think the trip to the crypts was for two reasons.

1. To unblock the door, else the secret passage would be useless.

2. So that Lady Dustin could see for herself the evidence of the missing swords, as she seems a tad too cautious and suspicious a person to just go on the word of a mute Ironborn like Wex Pyke, that two Stark heirs hid down there.

[rotting sea cow]

5 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I also recall that the murders started around the time of Mors Umber's horn-blowing:

No, they started earlier and probably all murders were performed by the spearwives and Mance (I don't exclude other perpetrators), except for LW, who was likely killed by BW.

At least three groups of people visited the crypts. 1) Theon and Lady Dustin, among other things to unblock the door and check some rumors 2) Theon, Mance and some spearwives where the first 'sang' everything he knew, except that the Starklings are alive and Arya is Jayne*. 3) Little and Big Walder (sent by Ramsay or they went with him?) and BW decided to kill his cousin after what they saw

There were a lot of interesting movements at Winterfell that somewhat mirroring what was happening at Castle Black.

* It is interesting that practically all players in the Winterfell plot are aware that Ayra is fake and Bran and Rickon are likely alive (yes probably even Mance). Still they all pretend it otherwise, even Theon who could personally benefit in telling the true to the right people.

 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

1 minute ago, rotting sea cow said:

No, they started earlier...

Hmm... I'll have to check my notes... (yes, I started taking notes recently... I really ought to get a life)

...but I'm sure that the hornblowing was precursor to some shift within Winterfell. Maybe it's when Manderly started getting openly defiant?

1 minute ago, rotting sea cow said:

At least three groups of people visited the crypts. 1) Theon and Lady Dustin, among other things to unblock the door and check some rumors 2) Theon, Mance and some spearwives where the first 'sang' everything he knew, except that the Starklings are alive and Arya is Jayne*. 3) Little and Big Walder (sent by Ramsay or they went with him?) and BW decided to kill his cousin after what they saw

Hmm, I don't remember 2 and 3 at all. Big Walder went to the crypts?

[rotting sea cow]

3 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Hmm... I'll have to check my notes... (yes, I started taking notes recently... I really ought to get a life)

...but I'm sure that the hornblowing was precursor to some shift within Winterfell. Maybe it's when Manderly started getting openly defiant?

Hmm, I don't remember 2 and 3 at all. Big Walder went to the crypts?

It is possible that the blowing of the horn was a signal. As I said, there were a lot of things going on at that time.

The other visits were offscreen. Theon and Mance visit is almost a certainty. One of the spearwives already asked Theon about the crypts, so once Theon was 'captured' by them and brought him to Abel, they likely went there (it is of course possible he learned that from Lady Dustin already, but I find it less probable).

Big and Little Walder visit is more speculative, but besides Theon they are the only ones who know where they are located and there must be a motive to for BW to strike at that particular moment.

 

 

[sweetsunray]

41 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

...but I'm sure that the hornblowing was precursor to some shift within Winterfell.

It shifts how the Spearwives deal with Theon. First they try to flirt with him. After the horns are blown, they threaten him and eventually force him to meet with Mance to sing his song.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Big and Little Walder visit is more speculative, but besides Theon they are the only ones who know where they are located and there must be a motive to for BW to strike at that particular moment.

Big Walder is using the other murders as cover.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

It shifts how the Spearwives deal with Theon. First they try to flirt with him. After the horns are blown, they threaten him and eventually force him to meet with Mance to sing his song.

Aye.

*checks some details*

So the order of events is:

- Rowan approaches Theon, gently

- Theon and Lady Dustin visit the crypts

- murder of the Ryswell man

- Holly approaches Theon, gently

- murder of Aenys Frey's squire

- murder of the Flint crossbowman (interesting, since some Flints are on Stannis's side)

- argument between Hosteen Frey and Wyman Manderly; look of fear in Roose Bolton's eyes

- stable collapses

- murder of Yellow Dick

- Hooded Man

- Theon meets with Roose Bolton and other lords; Lady Dustin antagonistic to the Freys

- the horns start

- Washerwomen approach Theon, not so gently

- Theon meets with Abel and washerwomen, mostly off-screen

- murder of Little Walder

- Frey/Manderly argument; Manderly extremely provocative; fight breaks out; Roose orders Freys and Manderlys out of Winterfell

- escape

 

So...

It looks like @sweetsunray is right and the horns are, if anything, signalling to Mance that it's time to get Arya out of the castle. It's possible that this isn't a prearranged signal, but rather than Mance merely believes that Stannis is close enough to make his plan work:

"Lord Stannis is outside the walls, and not far by the sound of it. All we need do is reach him."

Unless Mance is just trying to reassure Theon.

I was wrong about Wyman Manderly; maybe he steps up his antagonism of the Freys, but he's already winding them up in the great hall before that.

(I also notice that Mance's murders actually stop before Little Walder dies, because, of course, (1) they're too busy with Theon, and (2) evidently the horns move them on to phase 2 of their plans.)

I think in hindsight the big game-changing moment in Winterfell is when Lady Dustin switches sides, which is apparently what's happened after her visit to the crypt. I suppose that Manderly is in cahoots with Mance, and others, and they woo Lady Dustin over to their side with the story of Rickon; she confirms it, and joins them; and then the plan to destabilise the situation is put in motion, with the murders and Manderly's antagonising of the Freys.

Questions:

- Can we be sure that the washerwomen are in cahoots with Manderly? Is their rescue of Arya about rescuing Arya, or provoking Bolton into leaving the castle, or both?

- Looking at the four murder victims - a Flint man, a Ryswell man, a Frey man and a Bolton man - can we discern anything about the nature of the conspiracy? Roger Ryswell and Lady Dustin seem quite close, so why is one of his men getting killed? Is Ryswell not involved? What about the Flint? (And which Flint is it?) Are Ryswell and Flint sacrificing some of their own men so as to avoid suspicion? Did one or both of them genuinely die by accident? (Roger Ryswell seems confident that it was an accident; maybe this is what gives somebody the idea to start the murders.)

- Was the stable collapse an accident?

- the Hooded Man - what was he doing? Passing on a message: "listen out for the horns, that's your GO signal?"

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

It's possible that this isn't a prearranged signal, but rather than Mance merely believes that Stannis is close enough to make his plan work:

"Lord Stannis is outside the walls, and not far by the sound of it. All we need do is reach him."

Unless Mance is just trying to reassure Theon.

Well there are indications that Mance had contact with Mors beforehand. In order to get from the Wall to Barrowtown/Winterfell, Mance could easily have passed through the Last Hearth. Mors did not join Stannis at Deepwood Motte. He went to WF on his own with his green boys and made no physical contact with Stannis, until they had Theon and fArya. We know from the men/scouts that disappeared when going outside of WF that Mors must have been in the Wolfswood a while already. He does not signal with the horn, until Stannis is at the Crofter's village. Meanwhile before Stannis even left the Wall we have the discussion between Jon and Mance about the daughters of Last Hearth that were stolen by wildlings and how Mors would kill Mance over it personally if he could. And yet, somehow the rescue of Jeyne Poole is forced into action by Mance and the spearwives immediately after Mors's horn signal. The hint here is Rowan who talks with respect about Starks, hates Theon for the alleged murder of Bran and Rickon, and has no issue with using feudal titles. She is suspected to be a stolen Umber relation. If Mance met with Mors on his way South with one or even more stolen women from south of the wall as spearwives, then that would enhance a coordinated cooperation between Mance and Mors.

 

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I think in hindsight the big game-changing moment in Winterfell is when Lady Dustin switches sides, which is apparently what's happened after her visit to the crypt. I suppose that Manderly is in cahoots with Mance, and others, and they woo Lady Dustin over to their side with the story of Rickon; she confirms it, and joins them; and then the plan to destabilise the situation is put in motion, with the murders and Manderly's antagonising of the Freys.

What I find interesting is that she's pointing out the swords to Theon. She's not just checking this for herself, but I think she's also checking how aware Theon is of the fact that Brand and Rickon hid in the crypts and fled after the burning of WF, whether Theon helped them hide/escape.

I think she makes her decision in the crypts, as she urges Theon to help fArya. Once she knows that Manderly or the other allies might very soon come out with Rickon (or possibly even Bran), then Arya Stark is not first in line heir anymore, She helped to arrange the wedding to Ramsay in part (originally planned to happen in Barrowtown), after all, and I think she knows quite well that could not be the real Arya Stark. Barbrey knew Lyanna as a young girl and teen because she often rode in the Rills with Brandon, and Arya visited Barrowhall when younger. She knows the Stark look, and it aren't brown eyes. However, in order to make sure that Ramsay looks to have an unworthy claim, somehow Jeyne Poole must remain Arya Stark in and outside WF. They're all upholding the pretense.

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Can we be sure that the washerwomen are in cahoots with Manderly? Is their rescue of Arya about rescuing Arya, or provoking Bolton into leaving the castle, or both?

No, I'm not sure they are. Quite possibly Dustin is in cahoots with Manderly and separately with Mance. Someone there is in cahoots with both, but they're not necessarily in cahoots as an entire group.

While we do have some hints that the rescue was planned for that day, there are also indications it was being hastened, in response to the near mortal fight between Hosteen and Manderly, which was in response to LW's murder. It seems to me that the rescue of Jeyne Poole was to provoke an exit. We can derive that from Mors building both traps as well as being there at the other side of the Wall to fetch fArya and Theon. And the most likely plan for Mance was to leave WF around the same time the armies leave. Armies prepping to make a sortie or exit would be the most chaotic period of people going to and fro, and thus the most opportune time for them to leave. Their flirtuous questioning about secret doors of Theon suggests they were seeking to set up a plan to make their escape.

But because of LW's murder, Roose orders both Freys and Manderlies to leave WF and attack Stannis, so everything must be hastened up a bit. 

So, the question is in how much BW and LW messed up the plans. The hastening of plans made one of the spearwives forget her rope for example. Possibly the escape and the sortie coinciding so close together may have cost Mors and his greenboys. It's unlikely that Manderly will survive Hosteen's assault for long. Which does lead to the question: what the hell happened between BW and LW that provoked BW to either murder LW aggressively or in self-defense.

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Roger Ryswell and Lady Dustin seem quite close, so why is one of his men getting killed? Is Ryswell not involved? What about the Flint? (And which Flint is it?) Are Ryswell and Flint sacrificing some of their own men so as to avoid suspicion? Did one or both of them genuinely die by accident? (Roger Ryswell seems confident that it was an accident; maybe this is what gives somebody the idea to start the murders.)

The Ryswell brothers are not said to particularly like each other, IIRC, hence why they all have their personally diferent colored horse sigil. It's possible that the death of one brother was a good opportunity for the other.

As for the Flint - there are three Houses Flint. One is a mountain clan (likel Breakstone Hill),  the second is House Flint of Flint's Fingers, which is south-west of the North (same area as Ryswell and Dustins). The latter are the Flints inside WF and it's one of their crossbowmen who's found dead. The mountain Flints are with Stannis and at CB. The third House Flint is in House Flint of Widow's Watch in the east and they follow Manderly. Robin Flint of Widow's Watch was murdered at the RW. He was the son of Lady Flint and most likely the Lord of Widow's Watch. 

[rotting sea cow]

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Big Walder is using the other murders as cover.

 

He is, but there is more about it. He didn't kill LW after Yellow Dick for example. He did after Umber started blowing horns and other things happened, see below.

 

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Big Walder is using the other murders as cover.

Aye.

*checks some details*

So the order of events is:

- Rowan approaches Theon, gently

- Theon and Lady Dustin visit the crypts

- murder of the Ryswell man

- Holly approaches Theon, gently

- murder of Aenys Frey's squire

- murder of the Flint crossbowman (interesting, since some Flints are on Stannis's side)

- argument between Hosteen Frey and Wyman Manderly; look of fear in Roose Bolton's eyes

- stable collapses

- murder of Yellow Dick

- Hooded Man

- Theon meets with Roose Bolton and other lords; Lady Dustin antagonistic to the Freys

- the horns start

- Washerwomen approach Theon, not so gently

- Theon meets with Abel and washerwomen, mostly off-screen
 

 

Before we learn about the murder of LW, several other things happened

- Ramsay bedded poor Jeyne that night. He was particularly brutal this time. He left her without clothes. Theon didn't help with the bathing, someone else did. Ramsay left in the middle of the night.

- Roose had a war council with his inner circle that morning. This doesn't include Ramsay or the Freys. Manderly, Umber, etc are not invited either. Interestingly Lady Dustin is not present.

- Shortly after, Ramsay arrives with a very bad mood. He argues with Roose. Whatever Ramsay said scare the shit out of Fat Walda.

 

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

1- Can we be sure that the washerwomen are in cahoots with Manderly?

2- Is their rescue of Arya about rescuing Arya, or provoking Bolton into leaving the castle, or both?

3- Looking at the four murder victims - a Flint man, a Ryswell man, a Frey man and a Bolton man - can we discern anything about the nature of the conspiracy? Roger Ryswell and Lady Dustin seem quite close, so why is one of his men getting killed? Is Ryswell not involved? What about the Flint? (And which Flint is it?) Are Ryswell and Flint sacrificing some of their own men so as to avoid suspicion? Did one or both of them genuinely die by accident? (Roger Ryswell seems confident that it was an accident; maybe this is what gives somebody the idea to start the murders.)

1) No we can't be sure. It's possible that Mance is coordinating with Manderly.Some people have even suggested he seduced Lady Dustin. But the whole Winterfell meeting is allowing everybody to start coordinating. Look again the snowmen built by the squires and see who are missing. Roose did a big mistake in having the northmen for too long there.

2) It can be both and even more. Arya is what keeps the people together, but practically everybody knows she is fake. But who is going to pull this house of cards first? With Ayra gone, any semblance of legitimacy is gone too. Should Ramsay lie about the escape? Nobody has seen Arya since the weeding.

3) I don't think the people killed means something. Mance and the spearwives just want to stir up that hornet nest that WF became.

[estermonty python]

34 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

As for the Flint - there are three Houses Flint. One is a mountain clan (likel Breakstone Hill),  the second is House Flint of Flint's Fingers, which is south-west of the North (same area as Ryswell and Dustins). The latter are the Flints inside WF and it's one of their crossbowmen who's found dead. The mountain Flints are with Stannis and at CB. The third House Flint is in House Flint of Widow's Watch in the east and they follow Manderly. Robin Flint of Widow's Watch was murdered at the RW. He was the son of Lady Flint and most likely the Lord of Widow's Watch. 

Slightly off topic, but I always found it VERY interesting that the sigil of House Flint of Widow's Watch is a pretty transparent depiction of the Others.  I can't even begin to guess at the significance of that.

 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

55 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Well there are indications that Mance had contact with Mors beforehand... If Mance met with Mors on his way South with one or even more stolen women from south of the wall as spearwives, then that would enhance a coordinated cooperation between Mance and Mors.

Yes, good point. Mance was originally headed for Long Lake, and if that isn't technically Umber land, he'd at least have to pass through some to get there. As Jon warned Stannis, the Umbers would be keeping a close eye on the roads and such, so it's quite possible Mance ran into Mors - and the nature of their conversation might well explain why Mance went to Winterfell at all, which is itself still a mystery. (I might add that Stannis probably can't have planned for Mance to free "Arya" from Winterfell, because she wasn't at Winterfell until after he took Deepwood Motte, and anyway, Stannis left Mance in Jon's custody. Which raises another question: what did Stannis have planned for Mance?)

55 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

While we do have some hints that the rescue was planned for that day, there are also indications it was being hastened...

Yes, I definitely agree. The original plan was definitely to have Mance escape with them, but suddenly they have to go ahead and leave him behind.

55 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

...what the hell happened between BW and LW that provoked BW to either murder LW aggressively or in self-defense.

Well, there's that theory that Big Walder is a Machiavellian supervillain, and he's simply taking an opportunity to remove a rival from power. Little Walder is ahead of him in the line of succession, and Big Walder wants to be Lord of the Crossing someday.

More likely, I think, is that Little Walder has been cruel to Big Walder. I think there are hints of this in the books, although I don't remember what; but it's definitely shown that Little Walder is taking after Ramsay Bolton, while Big Walder is not. Possibly Little Walder has picked up some bad habits and started doing horrible things to his weaker, more sensitive cousin. Whatever the precise reason, I certainly think that the murder was pre-meditated and a long time coming. Big Walder saw his opportunity to get away with it, and he took it.

55 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

The Ryswell brothers are not said to particularly like each other, IIRC, hence why they all have their personally diferent colored horse sigil. It's possible that the death of one brother was a good opportunity for the other.

It's a Ryswell man-at-arms that dies, not one of the brothers.

Specifically, it's one of Roger Ryswell's men, and yet Roger seems to be on the same page with Lady Dustin when she is antagonising the Freys - this is after I supposed she'd changed sides.

Meanwhile Rickard Ryswell is canoodling with one of Abel's washerwomen in a discreet location, and it's Roose Ryswell's scouts that keep "disappearing".

So, can we infer that whatever anti-Bolton conspiracy is brewing, the Flints of Flint's Finger and Roger Ryswell are not involved... (unless, as I mentioned, either of their men really did die accidentally, or with their lord's permission) ...but the other Ryswell brothers are?

And the bigger question: what about Lady Dustin - whose side is she on?

55 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

I think she makes her decision in the crypts... Once she knows that Manderly or the other allies might very soon come out with Rickon (or possibly even Bran), then Arya Stark is not first in line heir anymore, She helped to arrange the wedding to Ramsay... and I think she knows quite well that could not be the real Arya Stark... However, in order to make sure that Ramsay looks to have an unworthy claim, somehow Jeyne Poole must remain Arya Stark in and outside WF. They're all upholding the pretense.

I'm having trouble following here. What is her decision? Are you saying that she needs to get Arya out of Winterfell so that Manderly can't expose her as fake, thus upholding Ramsay's claim? But then why is it important for Ramsay's claim to look unworthy?

55 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Quite possibly Dustin is in cahoots with Manderly and separately with Mance. Someone there is in cahoots with both, but they're not necessarily in cahoots as an entire group.

I'm not following this either.

[Greywater-Watch]

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

and if Greywater Watch is the base of the Great Northern conspiracy

No, I'm not!

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

15 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I don't think the people killed means something. Mance and the spearwives just want to stir up that hornet nest that WF became.

Well, it only means something if Mance is working with the Manderly conspiracy: unless the conspirators are very cold-blooded, they aren't allowing him to kill their own men.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

18 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

He is, but there is more about it. He didn't kill LW after Yellow Dick for example. He did after Umber started blowing horns and other things happened, see below.

Before we learn about the murder of LW, several other things happened

- Ramsay bedded poor Jeyne that night. He was particularly brutal this time. He left her without clothes. Theon didn't help with the bathing, someone else did. Ramsay left in the middle of the night.

- Roose had a war council with his inner circle that morning. This doesn't include Ramsay or the Freys. Manderly, Umber, etc are not invited either. Interestingly Lady Dustin is not present.

- Shortly after, Ramsay arrives with a very bad mood. He argues with Roose. Whatever Ramsay said scare the shit out of Fat Walda.

I didn't think the horns were necessarily a factor for Big Walder. He's only ten years old; it probably took him a while to figure out that the murders could be used as cover. Or perhaps the horns were a factor, as he thought that Stannis would attack soon, and he'd miss his chance.

But you think there's something more going on, and that Ramsay is involved, is that right?

And that Roose is jettisoning the untrustworthy from his councils, which includes Ramsay and Lady Dustin?

I'll have to have another look at those snowmen like you said.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I believe a lot of people are making this much more complicated than it has to be.

Dustin does seem to be looking for something in the crypts, but Mance Ryder king beyond the wall is not likely just going to be declaring himself to northern lords who have practically all sworn to kill him.  If she was told the story it would have been from Manderly.

Mors Umber blew his horn once he had his pits dug, if there were more to it, there would no longer be any need to get that secret once it has already happened, we have Asha's chapter and Theons sample chapter where we do not learn of any more secret meanings behind these actions.

The spearwives murdered everyone other than BW to cause trouble, that is likely the reason that each one is from a different house, so that everyone feels equally uneasy about the situation.  It is also possible the guy found by the stables saw them weakning the stables which led to their collapse.  The reason they want to cause trouble is for a distraction to make their escape.  If they knew Mors was outside with horses and 500 men they would not have even bothered waiting for the distraction caused when the Freys and Manderlys were ordered out of the castle. 

In short I do think it's likely that Manderly reached out to Dustin, but I doubt that either are aware of Mance Ryders presence.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

6 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The spearwives murdered everyone other than BW to cause trouble... for a distraction to make their escape.

I don't think that's right. They want to escape, so they killed a bunch of people, so that Roose would heighten security, so that escape becomes more difficult... what?

Mance is crafty enough. With all the snow and the poor visibility, he probably could've wandered off anytime he chose.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Re: the snowmen: I'm not convinced, although it is a delicious suggestion. The theory I just read has the snowmen as a message to Mors and others outside Winterfell - being on the higher inner wall, the snowmen would be visible to somebody with sharp eyes or a Myrish lens. But Theon looks upon the snowy lords from the yard, i.e. inside the walls, and notices the icicle beard on one. So the snowy lords must be facing inwards, and are therefore not legible from outside the castle.

It's possible the snowmen on the walls are still a message of some sorts to the outside world. And it's possible the snow lords are a signal too, but they must be a signal to someone inside the castle. But wouldn't it be easier for the conspirators to simply talk to each other, rather than leaving these signals out in the open? If Roose wanders by and wonders why there's no Roose Bolton or Flint or Roger Ryswell snowman, say, he might start to get suspicious.

[aryagonnakill#2]

10 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I don't think that's right. They want to escape, so they killed a bunch of people, so that Roose would heighten security, so that escape becomes more difficult... what?

Mance is crafty enough. With all the snow and the poor visibility, he probably could've wandered off anytime he chose.

By causing the murders he hoped to change the status quo.  Whether that was troops being sent out of the castle, or different factions within WF actually coming to blows or not, it wouldn't matter.  Something had to change for them to be able to make an effective escape, as the Boltons would simply come after them with horses that they could never hope to outrun. 

When they thought Stannis was nearby due to the horns they thought that problem had been answered, they couldn't outrun them indefinitely but if Stannis is only a few hundred yards away they could definitely make that.

They knew they had to move when the manderlys and Freys were sent out for several reasons.  First it provided cover for the actual escape. 2nd they had to get to Stannis in case he lost the battle, they had to already be with him to escape.  3rd, with the Freys and Manderlys out of the castle it will become much more peaceful, people will calm down and it will be more difficult to blame murders on other people, or to stir up trouble.