That Trip to the Crypts

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Hmm... I still don't know about Barbrey Dustin consenting to one of her brothers being murdered. Is there any evidence to support that notion?

[estermonty python]

12 hours ago, Ethelarion said:

This is mostly focussed @Illyrio Mo'Parties because he set out a timeline but also @estermonty python and @sweetsunray for their discussion. After lurking on this forum for a year and recently discussing the Northern Houses I feel confident enough voicing my opinion on what is happening in the North and Winterfel.

I think Mance and the spearwives met with Mors Umber during their travels 'south', and because one of the spearwives is a daughter/niece/sister of Mors Umber, who has thoroughly enjoyed the more emancipated life after a long time Beyond the Wall. This is a unifying factor that aligns Mors and Mance. Since Mors has almost nothing to lose with Mance going on with his plans, he would be more likely to allow him to continue. However an older man like Mors isn't stupid and wouldn't give valuable information to a man -suspected to be an ally- about to sneak into Winterfel to steal the feared, torturous Ramsey's bride. So I think Mance goes in with a vague idea of who the 'bad guys' are, Frey and Bolton, but not necessarily knows who the 'good guys' in Winterfell are. Rowan seems very ladylike, with a lot of respect for the Starks and hate for Theon Turncloak. This would explain it. 

While in Winterfel the spearwives and Mance start spreading chaos to make an escape (of Theon, Jeyne and themselves) possible. They are not really in cahoots with the Northern allies in Winterfell. This course of events explains the killing of a Frey, a Ryswel, a 'Manderly' Flint and a 'Dustin' Ryswel. This would put all parties on edge, making Roose more tense, Ramsey less powerful and fArya and Theon more accessible. It could also be possible with regards to the Ryswell man, that a Bolton-loyal, or even Ramsey-friend was killed by their Stark-loyal lord to make sure their forces know they mean fuckin business and not to betray them. 

I also think Lady Dustin switches allegiance after hearing from Manderly that Stark children are alive, confirming this with Theon in the crypts. By then she has long ago figured out that fArya is not a Stark. Her hate for Ramsey is far greater to her hate for a dead great lord, a good man who let her husband die and a dude who abandoned her 30 years ago. Mance and Rowan Umber are not in cahoots with her. She is also not a known ally to Stannis. 

So I think the big players are connected like this: All the others in this line are not aware they are working together. I didn't add Stannis' allies. 
Jon<->Mance<->Theon<->Dustin<->Manderly<->Stannis. 

To answer the OP: nice theory, but I think Lady Dustin's motivation for entering the Crypts is to confirm Theon's story that male Starks have fled Winterfel. 

Wow you guys, I finally made it - being mentioned in threads that I've barely participated in!  There's got to be a merit badge for that, no?

 

I really like the "Rowan is an Umber" theory.  I think it makes a ton of sense, and it would be an (admittedly convenient) way to reconcile the Umber's hatred of the wildlings with the wildlings joining the Northern cause to help retake Winterfell, if that is indeed the endgame.  That said, I don't see Mance working with any of the other Northern Lords.  He's on a mission from Melisandre, and I don't believe there is any evidence that anyone inside the castle has made their loyalties known to her far enough in advance that she could have communicated that to Mance.  

I guess I just have a really hard time believing that there is some grand secret conspiracy brewing.  I have a very easy time believing that each individual house is quietly waiting for an opportunity to betray the Boltons and Freys, but every person brought into the conspiracy is a massive risk of ruining the entire operation.  Barbrey Dustin's loyalties are ambiguous enough that I seriously doubt anyone would approach her - particularly since the Ryswells and Boltons are so close.  Barbrey's animosity towards Ramsay stems from him murdering her nephew, not some latent Stark loyalty - I view her conversation with Theon as more of a thematic note from GRRM that assuming everyone in the North loves the Starks and hates the Boltons is overly simplistic and unrealistic.  She certainly seems to be keeping her options open, but it would be wildly reckless for Wyman to involve the Dustins or Ryswells in a plot to overthrow the Boltons. 

[estermonty python]

21 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Oh, I do think that BW was in part opportunistic. LW wasn't his full brother and indeed ahead in line, and LW was beginning to take after Ramsay. Btw since the start of the series you'd be surprised how much BW is getting closer. Plenty of Freys have died: Frey Pies, Stevron (Oxcross), Petyr (hanged BwB), Ryman (hanged BwB), Cleos (shot by outlaws), Tion (murdered by Karstark), Tytos (Sandor outside of the Twins), Merret (hanged by BwB), Jinglebell (throat cut by Cat, but a lackwit and probably never really in the running) and before the start of the series Geremy (drowned) and now LW.

Eh.  I actually figured this out a couple of weeks ago - at the start of the series, Little Walder was 36th in line, and Big Walder was 46th in line.  By my count, Big Walder is now 35th in line, even after all of those deaths.  That's so far down the line its just not realistic to view the murder as opportunism.  Most of the 34 (now 33) Freys ahead of BW have never even been mentioned or seen, other than in family trees in appendices.  The only way BW gets the Twins is in a King Ralph scenario where all the Freys are in one place and they all die at once - and even then there will be some who aren't there, because they're squiring elsewhere, etc.  

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

It is relevant because they are the only ones besides Theon who know the location of the crypts. I'd concede it that it's pure speculation about an eventual BW & LW visit to the crypts, but one needs to keep that fact in mind.

Did they really go there? Did they go there alone? Why? Did Ramsay also go with them? Did they discover something important? Missing swords or more? Jon's true identity? Why Ramsay was so pissed that morning? Why did he leave Jayne without clothes? What Ramsay told Roose that made Fat Walda so afraid? Why was LW killed? Is Rickon back nullifying Ramsay claim?

I agree that the Walders knowing the location of the crypts as well, and them the sole ones beside Theon is significant.

We speculated earlier that Dustin may be in cahoots with Mance, because the Mance is looking for the crypts as well. But Theon takes Dustin down to the crypts and shows her the entrance before Holly approaches him asking about the crypts the night after the Ryswell guy is found at the bottom of the other side of the inner wall. At least at that moment in the timeline, Dustin and Mance cannot yet be in cahoots, otherwise Holly wouldn't need to ask Theon about it.

Theon refused to answer her inquiry or show her and chased her off. We have no confirmation whether they ever found out, where they are, but I think it's safe to assume they would keep trying. Either they forced Theon into telling them when Theon met Mance at the burned tower the night before LW's murder, or they tried with other people and arrived with one of the Walders who showed them. George may also have one Walder remaining in order to lead Ramsay to the crypts.

17 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

This is interesting, because it argues also against the spearwives who rely in knives and daggers as weapons. Mance of course is a strong man able to overpower most, specially unawares.

I overall disagree with "Roger's" words that all the murders required someone very strong.

The naked squire of Aenys Frey found frozen in the lichyard.

 

1. There are no other signs of damage. In this case, the assertion that the murderer must be "strong" is irrelevant.
2. The lichyard: that's not just a step outside the door of quarters. That's quite far off and an odd location. Why would a squire go to the graveyard, completely naked?
3. It's not a place where a southern squire would voluntarily go to at night, not when it's so cold that you'd freeze your balls of, per the two guards confronting Theon that same night on his walkabout. Theon wants to go up the battlements to look over the spot where Ramsay's men dropped the freerider over the wall, thinking how all he needs to do is jump and try to go Stannis. One guard warns him that it's freezing cold up there, while the other replies that it's damnable cold down there as well (paraphrasing).
4. And then George stresses the mystery of the nakedness - why would anyone take his clothes of when wandering outside.

For some reason the man was outside naked and ended up going to the lichyard and froze to death.

So, forgetting for a moment a forwarded suspect, but just trying to answer "why is he naked" and "why is he in the lichyard".

Just throwing several speculations on here.

• Sex? That usually would be done somewhere in a nook, inside even. Nor do you need to take your clothes of for it, especially not with that weather and murderous cold.
• He was found snooping around where he wasn't supposed to and ordered to take of his clothes and then left to freeze. Still the lichyard seems unlikely. He's not a guard going rounds. He's a squire. What makes a squire go outside and go on an investigation as far off as the lichyard in the first place. And then where are his clothes? But at least it sonds more plausible than the naked-sex-in-the-lichyard scenario in that kind of cold.
• Bathing? If there's one thing people are certain to take their clothes of it's for a soak in bath. And we do have nice hot pools in the godswood to soak in, hot enough to bathe in even in that weather. But that's not where he was found. The lichyard would be in the vicinity though, so at least we have some reasonable distance between hot-pools and lichyard. So, why would a man having a hot pool bath in the godswood go to the lichyard?
  • he hears something and investigates. But there's no way he'd do that naked would he? He'd put his clothes on and then investigate no?
  • someone takes his clothes and runs of with them, and the squire chased the "prankster"

Now we have a reasonable scenario: the squire had a soak in the hot pool, someone took his clothes and ran of with them to the lichyard. The squire ran after the clothes-stealer, never managed to catch him or her, and froze to death.

This leads to new questions:

• how did the squire learn that one could soak in the hot pools and the godswood. Did someone tell him? Or was he such a brave man that he just thought - hmmm, those steaming pools in the godswood where Ramsay married Arya looked like something I could soak in.
• why did he go there in the middle of the night?
• was he alone in the bath?
• who was the prankster?
• where are his clothes?

Again we have various possible answers, one more plausible than the other. The location was known, because they all attended the wedding in the godswood. But it was someone familiar with Winterfell who told the squire of Aenys Frey that one could bathe in the pools: leaving us with Theon, the two Walders, Ramsay, Mance, the spearwives (through Mance).

• Theon isn't one who would have told the squire though. He was already sensitive about showing Barbrey the crypts. He doesn't want to tell the washerwomen anything about Winterfell: not doors, not crypts. So why would he tell a Frey's groom anything.
• Ramsay considers himself the lord of Winterfell, and the likelihood that he'd have some merry chat with a squire of a Frey about "his" hot pools is unlikely.
• As Abel, Mance won't betray to a squire of a Frey that he knows Winterfell better than the squire himself, not when it would raise less questions if his washerwomen can suggest it far more innocently.
• The Walders squire for Ramsay, so they have some affinity with the man in the jobs they're supposed to do - sand hauberks, clean swords - and well Frey grandsons and a Frey's squire (who likely is some Paege/Haigh/Goodbrook cousin/bastard) sharing talk, even if the Walders are children and Aenys' squire is an older grizzled man, certainly isn't abnormal either.

So, that brings us to either the spearwives or Walders being involved in this case somehow, possibly both.

Sex in a hot pool sounds appealing enough for a southerner to venture out in that cruel cold weather in the middle of the night. Imo it is likeliest that the squire was not alone in the pools, but with one or more spearwives. But that begs the question why the spearwives would have any particular interest to isolate a squire of Aenys Frey. I actually agree with @Illyrio Mo'Parties that the murder-to-create-tension-and-chaos is not as good a motive as most think it is after some reflection. Mance and the spearwives want to blend in, not put Boltons and Freys and guards on the alert and start investigating murders, at least not yet in this stage. Their main focus appear to be getting info to know locations and routines to make an escape plan. But what would this squire know then that is of the spearwives interest? That there are hot pools in Winterfell? That's not exactly the info they're after, but if the squire boasted about (knowing about it through words with the Walders) it could for a moment make the spearwives think that he might know more about certain locations in WF.

We then get the scenario of squire of a Frey learns about the hot pools from a Walder, and when one of the spearwives ends up in his lap he whispers something like, "I know a secret place to have fun," or something along those lines and mentions the hot pools. Spearwife follows him to the pools.  He takes his clothes, gets in and tries to entice her in as well (maybe she does, maybe she didn't). She teases some, but his answers about other locations are not as satisfactory, grabs his clothes and runs off with them. Thinking it's a game and that the spearwife wants to be caught, the squire ends up believing it's safe to leave the hot pool, run after her naked, since he's certain she either won't run far or fast, nor let him freeze from cold. But she runs faster and towards the lichyard where the others are waiting. They make a bargain. If he tells them what they want to know they'll give him his clothes back. The likelihood that he knows all that much is small, and they can't actually let him return and blow their cover. So they let him freeze to death.

Possible variations but imo less likely ones? Theon is quite possessive of some areas in WF, and if Theon has split personality he may not remember he came across the squire in the hot pools, making out or simply soaking. Theon takes the clothes and makes away with them to the lichyard. The squire runs after him, but somehow hobbling Theon manages to stay ahead and disappear. The man dies from hypothermia and freezes. I also mentioned Theon's difficulty with running, so I think that's doubtful. Another variation would be some cruel game by Little Walder for some insult or something the squire said that wasn't to LWs liking.

The last question for this case would be - where are the squire's clothes? Well, if the spearwives did it, and the squire is about Mance's height and built, then I'd say Mance is in possession of those clothes, in a hiding place, in order to make his exit - glamored as Rattleshirt in the clothes of a squire of a Frey. Theon Durden might have put the clothes back in the squire's sleeping location. A Walder could do the same.

Is there any evidence for this? None. All we have is a naked squire of Aenys Frey who froze to death in the lichyard the same night that Theon walked the battlements and Holly asked him about the crypts.  But it's a rather bizarre case and there must be some logical reason for the man to have taken his clothes of and run all that distance into a spooky, distant area completely naked in that weather.

This bizarre naked-in-the-lichyard case is actually the likeliest solved through means that require no power at all, only a body and a location to lure the man out of his clothes, and then a pair of good running legs.

The victim who's face was eaten by dogs fell.

The fall would have broken the man's neck and leg. If someone stands too close to a ledge and is pushed by surprise it does not require someone especially strong to make him fall. That's just the physical principal of a lever. We don't need to apply much force on one end of a lever. And you can consider the man on the battlement as a lever being pushed, and then gravity and a frozen ground does the rest. It would require someone strong though to hang on to him and pull him back up, to prevent him from falling.

We do however are gifted a scene of multiple people dragging a struggling freerider up the battlements and plumeting him over the wall. Why did George put that scene in the same day after the 1st victim was found? Is he drawing a parallel? If so, then it was a group effort, where they dragged a man where he doesn't want to go. He'd be fighting, wriggling,shouting, while they carry him up (and thus against gravity). There's just no way that could have been done without attracting attention. So, it appears to me that George wrote in that freerider scene as a message for the reader "it sure didn't happen this way!"

We do have some bits of info: the freerider lived and only broke his leg (like the 1st victim's leg sticking out). The freerider dropped from the 80 feet high outer wall. The 1st victim dropped from the 100 feet high inner wall into the moat between the two walls. Could those 20 feet make the difference between a broken neck or not? Well, yeah, especially if the fall is different. Throwing someone horizontally across a wall is a different fall than a standing man toppled over, because the latter makes him dive head down. So, the scene we witness with the freerider is a clue about how it did not happen, and that instead the man was pushed and that the man didn't expect to be pushed. He either knew and trusted the pusher, or he was not aware that the pusher was there (hardly likely though). And in none of these circumstances is force and strength a deciding factor.

The Flint in the stables

It's explained by those who found him that he was probably kicked by a horse, and that broke his skull. We can deduce there appears no signs of a struggle or fight, or Theon would have remarked on that at least in thought. So if it was a club that broke his skull, again the Flint was taken by surprise. It's not stated as a kick/swing from behind, but that fits both the image of a horsekick or a surprise attack. Even though we can rule out a child able to crack the skull of a man standing with a club (unless they drop a stone from above in the rafters), someone does not need to be very strong at all to kill a man like that.

Yellow Dick

He was found frozen and blue, both his body and the dick in his mouth. His teeth were broken by the dick pushed inside his mouth. And it's described as his dick having been 'sliced' off. So, the disfigurement was done to him post-mortem. Unmanning a man alive would be very bloody, and we lack any description of blood. Rogers says none of the victims was stabbed/killed with a sword or dagger, despite the fact that Yellow Dick's dick was sliced off. He wouldn't say that, unless it's clear that his dick was removed after he died. This means that there is no actual visible sign of violence on how Yellow Dick died. It appears to me then that Yellow Dick froze to death, like the squire of Aenys. After he died, rigor mortis set in rapidly with the freezing temperatures, he was then dismembered and the stiff dick was shoved in his mouth and broke his teeth. Again it required no force at all to kill him. It required strength to mutilate him however afterwards.
 

[sweetsunray]

13 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Hmm... I still don't know about Barbrey Dustin consenting to one of her brothers being murdered. Is there any evidence to support that notion?

There's little evidence for anything really. All four could have died accidentally: the first could have slipped and fell by accident, the second might have been drunk or ate some mushroom and chased some ghost stark naked and froze to death, the third might indeed have been kicked by a horse, and there's only evidence that Yellow Dick's body was harmed after he died, but not prior to it.

But Barbrey and "Roger" do seem to have no issue with each other and when Theon's interrogated they back each other up that it could not be Theon. So, either, Roger is Roger and the faceless dead man is nobody of consequence OR if Roger is actually Rickard and the dead man is an unidentifiable Roger, then it follows that Barbrey doesn't really mind much.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

6 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

But Barbrey and "Roger" do seem to have no issue with each other and when Theon's interrogated they back each other up that it could not be Theon. So, either, Roger is Roger and the faceless dead man is nobody of consequence OR if Roger is actually Rickard and the dead man is an unidentifiable Roger, then it follows that Barbrey doesn't really mind much.

I lean towards the simpler explanation - but of course, all it takes is a one-line fix in TWOW and the complicated one could make sense too.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

9 hours ago, estermonty python said:

...at the start of the series, Little Walder was 36th in line, and Big Walder was 46th in line.  By my count, Big Walder is now 35th in line, even after all of those deaths.  That's so far down the line its just not realistic to view the murder as opportunism.

Go ahead, keep on underestimating him. That's what the rest of the Freys will be doing... right up til it's twenty years later and suddenly they're like, holy shit, Big Walder's 3rd in line? And why does my soup taste so funny? Oh god, I'm shitting blood blaaaarrrghg and I'm dead.

Big Walder's got big dreams and big balls, and he's not to be fucked with

[sweetsunray]

9 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Eh.  I actually figured this out a couple of weeks ago - at the start of the series, Little Walder was 36th in line, and Big Walder was 46th in line.  By my count, Big Walder is now 35th in line, even after all of those deaths.  That's so far down the line its just not realistic to view the murder as opportunism.  Most of the 34 (now 33) Freys ahead of BW have never even been mentioned or seen, other than in family trees in appendices.  The only way BW gets the Twins is in a King Ralph scenario where all the Freys are in one place and they all die at once - and even then there will be some who aren't there, because they're squiring elsewhere, etc.  

I made an entire list of the tree as far as BW a few months ago in another thread regarding the LW murder, with the ones who died, and marking those we can assume to be in line. Normally the daughters and granddaughters should come ahead as well, but those we can safely discount from managing to get the backing of the rest of the family. 9 year old Walda, versus her uncle Black Walder or her great uncles? No chance she'll win that one.

There are certainly signs, clues and hints to speculate that there will be a Red Wedding at Riverrun with Lannisters present and Freys. Several of those "squired" out are squired out with Westerland lords and could be expected to be present when the Warden of the West, Daven Lannister weds a Frey girl at Riverrun, the castle of the father/grandfather. Others are squired with Paeges and other Riverlands houses that are direct bannermen of the Freys. Several of those would also be present at the wedding.

Not all the Freys would be present of course, but we can ealso expect a civil war between the remaining ones, including the daughters participating in it. Within just a few events, by the end of tWoW, BW could easily be 10th in line, or less.

Now, I'm not of the opinion that BW killed LW in cold blood to remove just one rival alone. I can get fully behind the idea that it was self defense, or to keep LW from spilling beans about something to Ramsay. But there is no love lost between those two, and I can see BW not caring much about LW being dead for various reasons, including that is one less Frey ahead of him. If George wants him to be Lord of the Crossing, he'll be Lord of the Crossing.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

10 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Wow you guys, I finally made it - being mentioned in threads that I've barely participated in!  There's got to be a merit badge for that, no?

You get a coupon for a Happy Meal, but they have to mail it out to you and it's all just a ploy to sell your address to the data miners. What a gyp.

10 hours ago, estermonty python said:

That said, I don't see Mance working with any of the other Northern Lords.  He's on a mission from Melisandre, and I don't believe there is any evidence that anyone inside the castle has made their loyalties known to her far enough in advance that she could have communicated that to Mance.

Blues Brothers?

Anyway, his mission from Melisandre was to rescue Arya, and... oh, I see. You think he's still carrying that mission out, but he's just realised that her vision must've been wrong? That's probably a pretty decent explanation... but there's still the possibility that he's got something of his own cooking as well. He wants into them crypts, and he mentioned a "ploy" for which he needed spearwives.

I suppose that could just be a fuck-up: Mance is prepared to rescue Arya from Winterfell before he can know that she's in Winterfell, and the accelerated publishing schedule (and/or the publishers putting their foot down and saying, Goddammit George, it's five years late, fuck you, we're publishing whatever you've got, right now!) meant that they didn't catch it.

Unless Mance knew all along he'd be going to Winterfell. Which means that he knew that Melisandre's vision was wrong all along. Which suggests that he somehow gave her the vision, which suggests that he's crafty enough to have devised the whole thing in order to get out of Castle Black without being chased and in to Winterfell without anybody knowing that's where he was going... which would make Mance a next-level mega-genius... which would explain (a) how he made himself a king inside of twenty years, and (b) why he was important enough to mentioned right at the start of book 1: because he's awesome.

This is almost certainly so much tinfoil, but I'm going to remember this just in case. If it's right, then I'll be the mega-genius. Maybe I'll get a merit badge of my own!

10 hours ago, estermonty python said:

I guess I just have a really hard time believing that there is some grand secret conspiracy brewing.  I have a very easy time believing that each individual house is quietly waiting for an opportunity to betray the Boltons and Freys, but every person brought into the conspiracy is a massive risk of ruining the entire operation.  Barbrey Dustin's loyalties are ambiguous enough that I seriously doubt anyone would approach her - particularly since the Ryswells and Boltons are so close.  Barbrey's animosity towards Ramsay stems from him murdering her nephew, not some latent Stark loyalty - I view her conversation with Theon as more of a thematic note from GRRM that assuming everyone in the North loves the Starks and hates the Boltons is overly simplistic and unrealistic.  She certainly seems to be keeping her options open, but it would be wildly reckless for Wyman to involve the Dustins or Ryswells in a plot to overthrow the Boltons. 

Thanks for the note of caution re: wild theorising. But I have to slightly disagree re: Dustin's crypt-trip having no plot significance. She doesn't want Theon telling anybody about it - I always took that to mean she didn't want him telling Roose about it. Although I just checked the text and maybe that's a bridge too far. But if it's not, that means she's breaking with Roose.

[sweetsunray]

11 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I lean towards the simpler explanation - but of course, all it takes is a one-line fix in TWOW and the complicated one could make sense too.

That's fine. It just seems to me that George did Agatha Christie meets Poirot meet Maigret at Gosford Park in Midsomer on steroids. Bodies drop left and right in 3-4 days. Five dead,not including the 2 of the collapsed stable roof, in 4 days, and each one has an extra mystery apart from "whodunnit".

1. "whodunnit" + "whatshisface"
2. "whodunnit" + "why did he friggin take his clothes of"
3. "whodunnit" + "what did he know that he was silenced for"
4. "whodunnit" + "there's a message meant by this, but what's the message."
5. not really much of a whodunnit at all, but "what was the issue between BW and LW"

Most people just assume: 1-4 spearwives and the rest don't matter. I rarely ever see someone trying to figure out the extra layered mysteries with those murders. Most people simply follow Theon's assumption that it were all the spearwives and don't look much into it, so you can't really say that those extra mysteries that George wrote in there are red herrings. Which is kind of a pity in the work and hints that George worked in there.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

14 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

I made an entire list of the tree as far as BW a few months ago in another thread regarding the LW murder, with the ones who died, and marking those we can assume to be in line.

Funny, I could've sworn I'd done the same thing on these very forums but I can't find the thread. Oh well.

But you are right: however many people it is between Big Walder and the lordship, it isn't as crazy a journey as we might think. There's a lot of babies, a lot of women, and a lot of people we might think are marked for death one way or the other. Between the BWB, Black Walder, Lame Lothar, etc, that line of succession could easily become a lot shorter.

Indeed: Merrett Frey thinks Lame Lothar is the one to really watch out for, and Big Walder is currently 2nd-in-line behind him. Interesting...

14 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Now, I'm not of the opinion that BW killed LW in cold blood to remove just one rival alone. I can get fully behind the idea that it was self defense, or to keep LW from spilling beans about something to Ramsay. But there is no love lost between those two, and I can see BW not caring much about LW being dead for various reasons, including that is one less Frey ahead of him.

I think Little Walder's cruelty and bullying must have been the major factor.

 

 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

50 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

We speculated earlier that Dustin may be in cahoots with Mance, because the Mance is looking for the crypts as well. But Theon takes Dustin down to the crypts and shows her the entrance before Holly approaches him asking about the crypts the night after the Ryswell guy is found at the bottom of the other side of the inner wall. At least at that moment in the timeline, Dustin and Mance cannot yet be in cahoots, otherwise Holly wouldn't need to ask Theon about it.

This is an excellent point. Let me just try and poke some holes in it:

Maybe they are in cahoots, and Holly is testing Theon's willingness to keep Lady Dustin's secrets?

...I thought I had more, but I've forgotten.

50 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

...or they tried with other people and arrived with one of the Walders who showed them. George may also have one Walder remaining in order to lead Ramsay to the crypts.

Mebbe. But why would Ramsay want to go to the crypts?

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Indeed: Merrett Frey thinks Lame Lothar is the one to really watch out for, and Big Walder is currently 2nd-in-line behind him. Interesting...

Exactly. George could have given Lame Lothar sons and daughters. He gave him 4 daughters instead. I find it quite interesting that George chose not to give him a male heir, and that BW's father is the brother right after Lothar, and Lame Lothar is the closes uncle just ahead of him and his own father. Especially when Lothar's the one who says you can only trust your full blooded brothers, and only then some.

In the meeting with Robb at RR to propose the marriage between Edmure and Roslin, Lothar is the polite, amiable and understanding one. He's not quick to anger, tends to mediate. He's quite obliging to Catelyn at the Twins, the noon before the RW, when she comes to make certain that there's nothing really wrong with Roslin as Edmure fears. But from Merrett we learn this man was the mastermind behind the execution of the Red Wedding, to the tiniiest details with the tents on the shore.

[sweetsunray]

5 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Maybe they are in cahoots, and Holly is testing Theon's willingness to keep Lady Dustin's secrets?

That argument can be made, but seems unlikelier than Holly trying to find out where the crypts are from Theon.

Now, that doesn't mean they don't get information. I find it striking that Theon's dragged before Roose, "Roger" and Barbrey and Aenys, forced to show his hands, and now "Roger", Barbrey and Aenys know Ramsay mutilated his fingers. Then when the spearwives pick him up in the godswood that same night and drag him before Mance, they mention the mutiliations that Ramsay inflicted on him. So, somebody told them or confirmed to them how Theon was tortured, and that's when they use threatening language to him.

Of course, Ramsay's men, like Yellow Dick, are in the know and mock him openly. Yellow Dick was mutilated and probably interrogated. They could have found out by making Yellow Dick sing his song.

13 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

But why would Ramsay want to go to the crypts?

To search it.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

On 6/1/2017 at 1:03 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Before we learn about the murder of LW, several other things happened

- Ramsay bedded poor Jeyne that night. He was particularly brutal this time. He left her without clothes. Theon didn't help with the bathing, someone else did. Ramsay left in the middle of the night.

- Roose had a war council with his inner circle that morning. This doesn't include Ramsay or the Freys. Manderly, Umber, etc are not invited either. Interestingly Lady Dustin is not present.

- Shortly after, Ramsay arrives with a very bad mood. He argues with Roose. Whatever Ramsay said scare the shit out of Fat Walda.

How do we know the bolded things?

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

58 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

I find it striking that Theon's dragged before Roose, "Roger" and Barbrey and Aenys, forced to show his hands, and now "Roger", Barbrey and Aenys know Ramsay mutilated his fingers. Then when the spearwives pick him up in the godswood that same night and drag him before Mance, they mention the mutiliations that Ramsay inflicted on him. So, somebody told them or confirmed to them how Theon was tortured, and that's when they use threatening language to him.

Of course, Ramsay's men, like Yellow Dick, are in the know and mock him openly. Yellow Dick was mutilated and probably interrogated. They could have found out by making Yellow Dick sing his song.

Jeez - you're on fire!

58 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

To search it.

For what?

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I actually agree with Illyrio Mo'Parties that the murder-to-create-tension-and-chaos is not as good a motive as most think it is after some reflection. Mance and the spearwives want to blend in, not put Boltons and Freys and guards on the alert and start investigating murders, at least not yet in this stage. Their main focus appear to be getting info to know locations and routines to make an escape plan.

I should say, I do think that destabilisation is still the most likely motive. I actually think that Mance and the spearwives consider themselves accomplished enough to be able to create tension, boost Arya, and escape, even though the first item makes the latter two more difficult. They have lots to achieve, and no other resources to rely on.

But I could be wrong. That's what this thread is all about. For instance: maybe there is a secret tunnel out of Winterfell from the crypts, and that's why Mance wants to get down there - which would explain why they're potentially sabotaging their own escape by putting the guards on high-alert.

Or, maybe the murders are happening for other reasons.

@sweetsunray has done absolute yeoman's work here, and I can only add some small pieces to that.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

There are no other signs of damage. In this case, the assertion that the murderer must be "strong" is irrelevant.

Overall I'd have to agree with this, with the caveat that it's not as if there's been a proper autopsy done. (Or even a proper consideration of the visible forensic evidence: look at how nobody twigs the obvious clues that Big Walder is Little Walder's killer.) If George wants to throw in a one-line fix, he could. For instance, let's say the Frey squire's frozen blue: would it be noticeable then had he been suffocated? It certainly wouldn't be if he'd been poisoned.

THE FREY SQUIRE

The notion that somebody stole his clothes and left him to freeze is perfect, and is quite a brilliant Agatha Christie-grade way of murdering somebody. And this is well within the spearwives's capabilities.

But I must disagree with the idea that the Frey squire ever went to the hot pools. @sweetsunray assumes that the lichyard is close enough to the godswood, and that there were no little nooks, crannies, alcoves or even buildings in or near the lichyard in which someone could have sex. I don't know about either of those. It's perfectly possible that there are some buildings in or near the lichyard. We've already seen the spearwives cropping up in odd, out-of-the-way places with men:

Quote

Theon made his way deeper into the ruined parts of the castle. As he picked through the shattered stone that had once been Maester Luwin's turret, ravens looked down from the gash in the wall above, muttering to one another. From time to time one would let out a raucous scream. He stood in the doorway of a bedchamber that had once been his own (ankle deep in snow that had blown in through a shattered window), visited the ruins of Mikken's forge and Lady Catelyn's sept. Beneath the Burned Tower, he passed Rickard Ryswell nuzzling at the neck of another one of Abel's washerwomen, the plump one with the apple cheeks and pug nose. The girl was barefoot in the snow, bundled up in a fur cloak. He thought she might be naked underneath.

-- The Turncloak, A Dance with Dragons

Naked in the snow!

To my mind that lends credence to the idea that one of the spearwives might've seduced a (possibly drunk) squire, convinced him to accompany her to some secret location, convinced him to get naked... and then, sure, stole his clothes and buggered off, leaving him to freeze his nards off.

But why do it, if not as psychological warfare?

Well, he's Aenys Frey's squire, so he might have useful information about one of the Frey military commanders - and if Aenys ever talked freely in front of him, as lords are wont to do before their servants, then perhaps he might have provided information about Roose's councils.

(I'd just like to take this moment to point out that "Aenys" sounds quite a lot like "anus", which is funny.)

The missing clothes are interesting, although they could easily be buried under snow. The only way we'd see them crop up again is if Mance has them, which is a very interesting possibility.

I don't buy any "Theon Durden" theories, but the notion that Little Walder might've done it is very interesting. In fact, he might've done it twice...

YELLOW DICK

Ramsay and his friends are known for their sexual cruelty, but I think there are a lot of hints that they don't restrict themselves entirely to women. (Ceebs providing the evidence right now.) Perhaps Yellow Dick's been molesting Little Walder, and Little Walder found a way to get his revenge? The "stealy-clothesy-freezy" trick is within the capability of a 10-yr old boy, and this motive does offer an explanation for the post-mortem violence: it's Little Walder castrating his tormentor, depowering him, and sexually humiliating him, etc.

The ol' "dick in the mouth" is a weird one, and humiliation seems a good motive. But if it was the spearwives doing it - which I still consider the most likely explanation - then to me, the purpose of the mutilation is simply to make it unambiguous that it was murder. You might then argue, why not just cut his throat in the first place? To which I reply: blood. If the spearwives are luring men to their naked, frozen doom, then they're smart enough to avoid getting themselves covered in incriminating blood. Smarter than Big Walder, certainly.

(Sidebar: was Yellow Dick naked?)

But there is a third explanation for Yellow Dick's murder, which in the interests of completeness must be considered

As @rottingseacow pointed out, the day after it happens, Ramsay is perhaps particularly cruel to Jeyne Poole, wakes up in a foul mood, and quarrels with Roose:

Quote

Lord Ramsay soon appeared as well, buckling on his sword belt as he made his way to the front of the hall. His mood is foul this morning. Theon could tell. The drums kept him awake all night, he guessed, or someone has displeased him. One wrong word, an ill-considered look, an ill-timed laugh, any of them could provoke his lordship's wroth and cost a man a strip of skin.
[...]
Up on the dais, Ramsay was arguing with his father. They were too far away for Theon to make out any of the words, but the fear on Fat Walda's round pink face spoke volumes.

-- Theon, A Dance with Dragons

Ramsay's clearly upset about something. Perhaps it's got to do with Yellow Dick? After all, he's vowed revenge in his customary style:

Quote

"When we find the man who did this," Lord Ramsay promised, "I will flay the skin off him, cook it crisp as crackling, and make him eat it, every bite." Word went out that the killer's name would be worth a golden dragon.

-- A Ghost in Winterfell, A Dance with Dragons

This, however, is directly contravening his lord father's own orders:

Quote

"Burn the body," Roose Bolton ordered, "and see that you do not speak of this. I'll not have this tale spread."
The tale spread nonetheless. By midday most of Winterfell had heard, many from the lips of Ramsay Bolton, whose "boy" Yellow Dick had been.

-- A Ghost in Winterfell, A Dance with Dragons

So perhaps that's the source of the friction: Roose cockblocking Ramsay's revenge, Ramsay foolishly disobeying Roose's orders and worsening the military/political situation - and not for the first time:

Quote

The Liddle took out a knife and whittled at a stick. "When there was a Stark in Winterfell, a maiden girl could walk the kingsroad in her name-day gown and still go unmolested, and travelers could find fire, bread, and salt at many an inn and holdfast. But the nights are colder now, and doors are closed. There's squids in the wolfswood, and flayed men ride the kingsroad asking after strangers."
The Reeds exchanged a look. "Flayed men?" said Jojen.
"The Bastard's boys, aye. He was dead, but now he's not. And paying good silver for wolfskins, a man hears, and maybe gold for word of certain other walking dead." He looked at Bran when he said that, and at Summer stretched out beside him.

-- Bran II, A Storm of Swords

(Sidebar: the Reeds exchange a lot of looks in these books. Well, four. But that's something!)

(Sidebar:  "As to that Wall," the [Liddle] went on, "it's not a place that I'd be going. The Old Bear took the Watch into the haunted woods, and all that come back was his ravens, with hardly a message between them. Dark wings, dark words, me mother used to say, but when the birds fly silent, seems to me that's even darker." How the hell does he know all that?)

So perhaps Ramsay is upset about his friend's murder and is rashly offering a bounty once again. But I said there's a third possibility: what if Ramsay killed him? I've mentioned before the weird sexual angle to both Yellow Dick's mutilation and Ramsay's "games". Perhaps Yellow Dick and Ramsay were lovers? Perhaps Ramsay's offering a bounty merely to avoid having the rest of his boys suspect something - perhaps, like Big Walder, he's taking advantage of the other deaths to get away with murder. But why would Ramsay do it - what insult or betrayal could Yellow Dick commit that would make Ramsay want to murder him?

Quote

His lordship glanced at the new Reek with eyes as pale and strange as two white moons. "What was he whispering whilst he unchained you?"
"He … he said …" He said to tell you nothing. The words caught in his throat, and he began to cough and choke.
"Breathe deep. I know what he said. You're to spy on me and keep his secrets." Bolton chuckled. "As if he had secrets. Sour Alyn, Luton, Skinner, and the rest, where does he think they came from? Can he truly believe they are his men?"

-- Reek III, A Dance with Dragons

Perhaps Ramsay found out that Yellow Dick wasn't his man after all. This might also explain why he was angry with Roose the next morning.

Still, Ramsay would probably have done much worse to Yellow Dick than cut his dick off after he'd already froze to death.

THE RYSWELL AND THE FLINT

Still, in both cases - Yellow Dick and Frey squire - I still lean towards the spearwives, pulling the same nudey-freezy trick each time, trying to destabilise the situation - and mutilating Yellow Dick in order to ratchet up the tension by making it plain that it wasn't an accident.

The other two murders have less chance to be committed by the spearwives simply by virtue of the identity of the victims. If Mance is conspiring with Wyman Manderly and Barbrey Dustin, then I don't see why he'd be targeting northmen, unless those men belong to lords who've rejected the conspirator's overtures, or to lords who are willing to allow their own men to be murdered.

In the case of the mysterious Ryswell man-at-arms, I agree that he must have been pushed off the wall (unless it really was an accident). We can deduce that he wasn't actually manning that wall, at least if Roger Ryswell's comment about him going up there for a piss can be taken as evidence: if he had to go up there for a piss, then he can't have been there already, on duty.

But if he wasn't going up there for a slash, then why was he up there? There are two possibilities, really. Either he was lured up there to be killed as part of some Ryswell switcheroo, in which case it's a Ryswell that lured him... or he was lured up there by one of the spearwives. Drunken romantic canoodling atop the battlements? That could work.

The complicating factor here is whether or not the body was supposed to be found. The snow can't have been that high, else he wouldn't have died. Did anybody make an effort to hide his corpse, or is it just coincidence that it got blanketed with snow - and further coincidence that the dogs found it? I suppose a man-at-arms simply disappearing would also suit the spearwive's purpose - so perhaps they didn't care whether he was found or not.

The Flint in the stables is the outlier, in that we're probably expected to believe it requires some strength to commit that murder.

(Although, real-life, a child with a hammer could probably break your skull. I saw it on that ridiculous JonBenet Ramsay show that aired recently: they actually brought out a child, gave him a big heavy torch, and had him smack some fake heads to see what would happen. Brilliant.)

But again, it seems well within the spearwive's capabilities - at least one of them is big and strong, and Mance could certainly involve himself.

Also, there aren't any good alternative explanations for motive in his case. At least with the Ryswell man there's the Ryswell tinfoil switcheroo.

I should add also, it's the Ryswell and Flint murders that stand the biggest chance of being accidents. Or at least were most plausibly made to look like accidents. The naked Frey squire has no ready-made explanation like "fell off the wall" or "kicked by a horse", and Yellow Dick's murder was clearly meant to be seen as such.

Alright, that's enough typing.

[rotting sea cow]

5 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

How do we know the bolded things?

I don't have the books with me. Still in holidays. But from what I recall, when Theon enters the room to rescue Jeyne, it's dark, has the windows shutters closed and there is a dying candle, signaling that Ramsay (likely) woke up early and left, maybe when the horns started to sound or for another reason. 

Regarding the war council, Roose enters the dinning hall, where Theon is having breakfast with Abel, followed by several lords. Manderly was already eating when this happened. Ramsay came later and Lady Dustin is not mentioned. I'm unsure whether a Frey was present or not.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

I don't have the books with me. Still in holidays. But from what I recall, when Theon enters the room to rescue Jeyne, it's dark, has the windows shutters closed and there is a dying candle, signaling that Ramsay (likely) woke up early and left, maybe when the horns started to sound or for another reason. 

Regarding the war council, Roose enters the dinning hall, where Theon is having breakfast with Abel, followed by several lords. Manderly was already eating when this happened. Ramsay came later and Lady Dustin is not mentioned. I'm unsure whether a Frey was present or not.

I just read the latter part: Roose enters with his wife. Any other lords present in the scene were already there (from memory: Manderly, Stout, someone else, not Dustin or Frey.) Ramsay enters and argues, then the Freys enter with Little Walder. No mention of a war council.

Nice catch about Ramsay, Theon definitely notices Ramsay's angry and possibly hasn't been sleeping at breakfast. Did the horns start in the middle of the night?

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I just read the latter part: Roose enters with his wife. Any other lords present in the scene were already there (from memory: Manderly, Stout, someone else, not Dustin or Frey.) Ramsay enters and argues, then the Freys enter with Little Walder. No mention of a war council.

 I need my books. My impression is that Roose and other lords entered together. Still almost everybody is there, not Lady Dustin

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Nice catch about Ramsay, Theon definitely notices Ramsay's angry and possibly hasn't been sleeping at breakfast. Did the horns start in the middle of the night?

At the "hour of the wolf", whatever time is actually this.