That Trip to the Crypts

sweetsunray · January 7, 2017

9 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

For what?

For bride-stealers.

THE FREY SQUIRE

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The next morning Ser Aenys Frey's grizzled squire was found naked and dead of exposure in the old castle lichyard, his face so obscured by hoarfrost that he appeared to be wearing a mask. Ser Aenys put it forth that the man had drunk too much and gotten lost in the storm, though no one could explain why he had taken off his clothes to go outside. Another drunkard, Theon thought. Wine could drown a host of suspicions.

There's no mentioning of him being blue, but his face is obscured by hoarfrost. I notice that we have another victim here whose identification is obscured, somewhat. But thematically we have a man without a face, then a masked one, next a fractured one and then a blue one. Something to store away for symbolical stuff. Won't help us with trying to be Sherlock Holmes here though.

I do however notice "drown" as a figure of speech. The hoarfrost mask is a figure of speech. And so is the drowning in wine. But he could have been drowned though. And then later the body was moved.

Yes, I know that quote of the fur cloak and how she might be naked underneath. But she isn't naked, is she. She's naked underneath. And everybody's "naked underneath" thier clothes. They still wear clothes above their nakedness. The Frey squire didn't. You don't need to get entirely naked to have sex: just unlace, unbotton (for the guys) and lift up the skirt (for women). That's the type of canoodling we witness between "Rickard" and a spearwife. There's no way that squire was voluntarily taking his clothes of in weather where guards say

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Outside the snow was swirling, dancing. Theon groped his way to the wall, then followed it to the Battlements Gate. He might have taken the guards for a pair of Little Walder's snowmen if he had not seen the white plumes of their breath. "I want to walk the walls," he told them, his own breath frosting in the air.

"Bloody cold up there," one warned.

"Bloody cold down here," the other said, "but you do as you like, turncloak." He waved Theon through the gate.

The steps were snow-packed and slippery, treacherous in the dark. Once he reached the wallwalk, it did not take him long to find the place where they'd thrown down the freerider. He knocked aside the wall of fresh-fallen snow filling up the crenel and leaned out between the merlons. I could jump, he thought. He lived, why shouldn't I? He could jump, and … And what? Break a leg and die beneath the snow? Creep away to freeze to death?

That's not the weather where even an eager squire takes of all his clothes in a lichyard nook, when he can do it just by keeping everythign warm and just unlace. We don't see Ryswell naked, do we? We also have the information from Asha's POV that Northerners can handle the cold far better than a southerner. What's true for a Northerner versus a Southerner must surely also be true for a wildling versus a Northerner, let alone a southerner. There's just no way that a southerner Frey's going naked in weather like that on a voluntarily basis, unless he can be in some warm environment or is so drunk that he doesn't feel anything anymore (but that would hardly enable him to walk anymore).

That's why I think he was bathing. Sole thing I can imagine that would entice a man to get naked, while the snow swirls down on him, his breath frosts in the air and even clothed men would freeze to death if they stay out too long without extra layers or a fire or a shelter: a nice hot bubbling pool.

If the "drowning" means something, that would also work. The person with him, simply has to hold his head under. He drowns. Then he's carried somewhere else, to the lichyard. That could work. And with his hair and face all wet, you would have a weird frosting over the face that's like an extra layer of ice skin/ice mask other than just the frost of dry skin. Because it's odd that his face has a mask, but his naked body doesn't have that extra thick ice layer.

Another one that could work is enticing him to jump into the big black pool (if that one isn't frozen over yet). Both the hot pools as well as the cold pools would appear to be "smoking" if their temperature is higher than the air (even if it's so cold it would give you a heart attack). You could have evaporation for both. A smart murderer could say, "Let's try that one!" He jumps and it's so cold he either has a heart attack or suffers quickly from hypothermia. But it would be a drag to fish him out of the large black pool again.

Still, I think the simplest scenario is stealing his clothes while he's in the hot pools and then make him run after it.

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

It certainly wouldn't be if he'd been poisoned.

Theoretically he could be poisoned, yes. But even when speculating about scenarios I still do prefer to use the hints that George provides us with. George is not making a mystery of it how someone died (fell, 2 x froze, hit in the head, stabbed), but he inserts other mysteries in it. He tends to give other clues when it comes to poison. Even if there is no actual forensic investigation done and we don't have a CSI lab, George wrote it to tease the detective in ourselves and gives us just enough information to form speculative conclusioins, which we can verify later in tWoW. We don't need Dexter to perform a blood splatter simulation to figure out that BW stabbed LW for example.

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

But why do it, if not as psychological warfare?

Well, he's Aenys Frey's squire, so he might have useful information about one of the Frey military commanders - and if Aenys ever talked freely in front of him, as lords are wont to do before their servants, then perhaps he might have provided information about Roose's councils.

Agreed. When it comes to the spearwives we know in general that they are after information. It's doubtful that Theon's the only one they ask questions when they try to get into his lap or the only one they made sing a song before Mance. Military information is valuable, and the squire probably boasted about being privy to info to make himself important for the canoodling.

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

The missing clothes are interesting, although they could easily be buried under snow. The only way we'd see them crop up again is if Mance has them, which is a very interesting possibility.

Yes, they could be hid away under the snow, obviously. But the emphasis on the nakedness by George does entice my brain to come up with other useful answers.

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I don't buy any "Theon Durden" theories, but the notion that Little Walder might've done it is very interesting. In fact, he might've done it twice...

I think the Hooded Man is Theon's former self. Agreed. I don't think we should rule out LW as being involved somehow or even as a suspect. It seems less likely to me at this point in the speculative scenarios I came up with for the Frey squire and Yellow Dick, but since it's speculation and we don't have all the evidence to make absolute conclusions, I wouldn't rule him out.

YELLOW DICK

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Ramsay and his friends are known for their sexual cruelty, but I think there are a lot of hints that they don't restrict themselves entirely to women. (Ceebs providing the evidence right now.) Perhaps Yellow Dick's been molesting Little Walder, and Little Walder found a way to get his revenge? The "stealy-clothesy-freezy" trick is within the capability of a 10-yr old boy, and this motive does offer an explanation for the post-mortem violence: it's Little Walder castrating his tormentor, depowering him, and sexually humiliating him, etc.

I agree with the impression that Ramsay and his men might be molesting little boys. However, I'm not sure LW is the victim here, since he's mentioned to develop into someone like Ramsay. Perhaps you're thinking of the abused becoming an abuser, but George shows himself competent enough when writing about characters with personality disorders and abuse that I'm confident enough in him to know that's a myth. When abusers have the choice between two possibel victims they tend to victimize the more accomodating personality while making the least one an accomplice. So, between LW and BW, the latter would be the victim while LW becomes the accomplice.

So, if LW was involved it would have been as a tormentor, but not alone imo. Then I see him play games together with Ramsay or some of his men.

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

The ol' "dick in the mouth" is a weird one, and humiliation seems a good motive. But if it was the spearwives doing it - which I still consider the most likely explanation - then to me, the purpose of the mutilation is simply to make it unambiguous that it was murder. You might then argue, why not just cut his throat in the first place? To which I reply: blood. If the spearwives are luring men to their naked, frozen doom, then they're smart enough to avoid getting themselves covered in incriminating blood. Smarter than Big Walder, certainly.

The humiliation is done post-mortem. So it's likely a humiliation or message meant for someone else, a warning. I'm reminded of the raiders hanged with salt rocks in their mouths. It signaled to onlookers what their crimes were, not jsut to innocents, but as a warning to other offenders. As I said, we can take it literal in the sexual sense: he put his dick where it shouldn't have been. Or in the metaphorical way - he's been a dick to someone, a betrayer of some kind.

I agree with the blood. The murderer is smart enough not to want to be seen in bloody clothes. So, that shows that we can exclude BW being involved with the first four murders. The Freys somehow created this false belief of a knife wielding murderer, but none were, except for LW.

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

(Sidebar: was Yellow Dick naked?)

There's no mentioning of Yellow Dick being naked. Here's the quote.

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And no sooner had the men finished digging out the dead men and butchering the horses than another corpse was found.

This one could not be waved away as some drunken tumble or the kick of a horse. The dead man was one of Ramsay's favorites, the squat, scrofulous, ill-favored man-at-arms called Yellow Dick. Whether his dick had actually been yellow was hard to determine, as someone had sliced it off and stuffed it into his mouth so forcefully they had broken three of his teeth. When the cooks found him outside the kitchens, buried up to his neck in a snowdrift, both dick and man were blue from cold.

It sounds like Yellow Dick was found seated, and snow piled over him so he'd been there for a log while already. Him having turned blue is a sign that he froze slowly, and thus died slowly. Post mortem discolorisation within hours of death is paleness and bright pink of the blood displacing itself following the laws of gravity, and eventually it becomes purple-black, but not blue. Blue is the color of oxygen deprived blood. When you look at your hands you can usually see some blueish-green veins vaguely throught the skin. Those are the veins that carry blood from your hands back to the heart. The blood running through it is darker than the arteries, because the oxygen brightens the red blood cells. When it's been used by muscles and skins, the blood is less bright and darker red. Now when our bodies are cold, the oxygen is used mainly to keep us warm, and the vital organs gain precedence. So, extremities like hands and feet and ears and noses are the first body parts that will receive less and less fresh blood pumped. The body can miss a toe or a finger, but not our brain and organs within the torso. Eventually when hypothermia sets in the heart will pump at a slower rate (this can actually be 1 beat per minute, and why say a person suspected of being alive but in deep hypothermia must be handled as if his heart is made of glass) and thus the blood in your limbs and your arteries turn blue, as it's all oxygen deprived and stationary. So the blueing happened while he was alive.

The Frey squire for example died rapidly. And the hoarfrost is an indication of mostly post-mortem freezing, while the blueing is the result of the death process. This makes it doubtful that Yellow Dick died where he was found, but far more probable his body was repositioned there. This to me is a murder, where Yellow Dick was guarded by a force or locked up somwhere left to freeze very slowly outof sight. Then he was mutilated and moved, and his dick shoved in his mouth. Another way that might take less time would be a poison to slow the heart, and I also wonder whether extreme leeching might do the same.

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Ramsay's clearly upset about something. Perhaps it's got to do with Yellow Dick?

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

This, however, is directly contravening his lord father's own orders:

Well, maybe Yellow Dick wasn't really Ramsay's boy as much as Ramsay thought? Remember that Roose informs Theon on the ride to Barrowhall when he takes him from Ramsay that several of Ramsay's men are actually Roose's and keep Roose informed about Ramsay. If Yellow Dick, who was Ramsay's favourite turned out to be an informant for Roose, then Ramsay would have a motive to send a message to his father. This would certainly explain why Roose wants to keep the tale quiet and the body burned ASAP, and why Ramsay spreads it. Roose's reaction imo indicates he knows and understands the message implied with Yellow Dick, and he doesn't want others who are indirectly threatened of suffering the same fate (other informants) to hear of it. That's why I'm wondering whether leeching might have been the aid used for the blueing.

And then there's also this scene that might be a hint that Ramsay's the murderer of Yellow Dick.

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Damon Dance-for-Me sat greasing up his whip. "Reek," he called. He tapped the whip against his calf as a man might do to summon his dog. "You are starting to stink again, Reek."

Theon had no reply for that beyond a soft "Yes."

"Lord Ramsay means to cut your lips off when all this is done," said Damon, stroking his whip with a greasy rag.

My lips have been between his lady's legs. That insolence cannot go unpunished. "As you say."

Theon is not the sole man that Ramsay uses to abuse Jeyne Poole sexually. If Yellow Dick was indeed Ramsay's favourite accomplice, then he could have involved him in the sexual abuse, like forcing Jeyne to suck Yellow Dick's dick while Ramsay penetrated her. Then he learns or gets a whiff that Yellow Dick is actually Roose's man, and cuts off what has been in his lady's mouth.

The reward for "a name" that Ramsay declares is officially for the name of the murderer, but is actually a request to have people inform on Roose's informers. Now, Theon's name is mentioned apparently with regards to seeing him wander about the premisses at night hours, enough to be questioned by Roose, Aenys, "Roger" and Barbrey (notice how Ramsay's absent). Meanwhile Roose took Theon away from Ramsay at Barrowtown. On the other hand Ramsay can still see and hear that Theon behaves enough to still be regarded as his pet and doesn't hang out with Roose. And Ramsay pretty much ignores him after the wedding night. So, I don't think Ramsay actually believes that Theon is an informant, but several of his men do, and they project a similar fate on him as that of Yellow Dick.

RYSWELL MAN

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

The complicating factor here is whether or not the body was supposed to be found. The snow can't have been that high, else he wouldn't have died. Did anybody make an effort to hide his corpse, or is it just coincidence that it got blanketed with snow - and further coincidence that the dogs found it?

Here's the quote about the finding of the Ryswell man

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The dead man was found at the base of the inner wall, with his neck broken and only his left leg showing above the snow that had buried him during the night.

If Ramsay's bitches had not dug him up, he might have stayed buried till spring. By the time Ben Bones pulled them off, Grey Jeyne had eaten so much of the dead man's face that half the day was gone before they knew for certain who he'd been

So, the dogs dug him up, and it was not until a leg showed that they realized a body lay there, and while they dug, Grey Jeyne ate his face. The estimation time of the murder imo was shortly before it began to snow or just when it started snowing that night. The whirling of the snow would have obscured the vision of guards and the skuffle up the ramparts of the inner wall. It would not however muffle noise (on the contrary), so it's possible the man's neck was broken before the drop. If that is the case, the murderer had to have strength. A northerner or a wildling imo can smell snow on the air. So, he or she would know it would be snowing that night or soon to hide the body.

FLINT GROOM

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Also, there aren't any good alternative explanations for motive in his case.

To me it comes across as silencing a witness. I think the Flint man went to the stables to meet someone, likely his killer and waited for him or her. Then he was hit in the head from behidn without ever seeing his killer.

sweetsunray · January 7, 2017

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I just read the latter part: Roose enters with his wife. Any other lords present in the scene were already there (from memory: Manderly, Stout, someone else, not Dustin or Frey.) Ramsay enters and argues, then the Freys enter with Little Walder. No mention of a war council.

Nice catch about Ramsay, Theon definitely notices Ramsay's angry and possibly hasn't been sleeping at breakfast. Did the horns start in the middle of the night?

Here are the relevant quotes

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Winterfell had been awake for hours, its battlements and towers crammed with men in wool and mail and leather awaiting an attack that never came. By the time the sky began to lighten the sound of drums had faded away, though warhorns were heard thrice more, each time a little closer. And still the snow fell.

[snip]

Roose Bolton entered, pale-eyed and yawning, accompanied by his plump and pregnant wife, Fat Walda. Several lords and captains had preceded him, amongst them Whoresbane Umber, Aenys Frey, and Roger Ryswell. Farther down the table Wyman Manderly sat wolfing down sausages and boiled eggs, whilst old Lord Locke beside him spooned gruel into his toothless mouth.

Lord Ramsay soon appeared as well, buckling on his sword belt as he made his way to the front of the hall. His mood is foul this morning. Theon could tell. The drums kept him awake all night, he guessed, or someone has displeased him.

I agree there would have been a war council, but it appears that they also all had a short time of repose and refreshment. Sometimes an hour or two hour long nap might make a person look and feel more tired than staying awake.

Anyhow Manderly and Locke don't appear to have been awake all night and not part of any council. Umber, Aenys and Ryswell entered the hall before Roose Bolton. I don't think we can exclude Barbrey from the war council. She's just missing from the hall. Roose certainly must have had some napping time, because he enters with his wife. So, the war council was not just prior to breakfast, but during the dark hours. Walda wouldn't have been part of the council, so Bolton fetched her from her room.

Ramsay's buckling his belt, so he comes from his room imo or Jeyne's.

I think the closed shutters in her room are indicative of Jeyne's lack of will for anything. Remember how Sansa stayed in bed with her curtains closed after the beheading of Ned.

rotting sea cow · January 7, 2017

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Here are the relevant quotes

I agree there would have been a war council, but it appears that they also all had a short time of repose and refreshment. Sometimes an hour or two hour long nap might make a person look and feel more tired than staying awake.

Anyhow Manderly and Locke don't appear to have been awake all night and not part of any council. Umber, Aenys and Ryswell entered the hall before Roose Bolton. I don't think we can exclude Barbrey from the war council. She's just missing from the hall. Roose certainly must have had some napping time, because he enters with his wife. So, the war council was not just prior to breakfast, but during the dark hours. Walda wouldn't have been part of the council, so Bolton fetched her from her room.

Thanks for the paragraph. Mmmm, it doesn't seem so certain there was such a council despite the concentration of lords, but giving the events it is lquite ikely

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Ramsay's buckling his belt, so he comes from his room imo or Jeyne's.

I think the closed shutters in her room are indicative of Jeyne's lack of will for anything. Remember how Sansa stayed in bed with her curtains closed after the beheading of Ned.

I need a re-read, what I seem to recall that Ramsay was particularly brutal that night and Theon somewhat feared that Ramsay might return in any moment. That, and the mention of a dying candle led me to think that Ramsay left in the middle of the night. Ramsay was nevertheless in a very bad mood and whatever he discussed with Roose, made Fat Walda very afraid.

sweetsunray · January 7, 2017

16 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Thanks for the paragraph. Mmmm, it doesn't seem so certain there was such a council despite the concentration of lords, but giving the events it is lquite ikely

I need a re-read, what I seem to recall that Ramsay was particularly brutal that night and Theon somewhat feared that Ramsay might return in any moment. That, and the mention of a dying candle led me to think that Ramsay left in the middle of the night. Ramsay was nevertheless in a very bad mood and whatever he discussed with Roose, made Fat Walda very afraid.

More quotes

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Up on the dais, Ramsay was arguing with his father. They were too far away for Theon to make out any of the words, but the fear on Fat Walda's round pink face spoke volumes. He did hear Wyman Manderly calling for more sausages and Roger Ryswell's laughter at some jape from one-armed Harwood Stout.

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No day had dawned inside this room. Shadows covered all. One last log crackled feebly amongst the dying embers in the hearth, and a candle flickered on the table beside a rumpled, empty bed. The girl is gone, Theon thought. She has thrown herself out a window in despair. But the windows here were shuttered against the storm, sealed up by crusts of blown snow and frost. "Where is she?" Holly asked. Her sisters emptied their pails into the big round wooden tub. Frenya shut the chamber door and put her back against it. "Where is she?" Holly said again. Outside a horn was blowing. A trumpet. The Freys, assembling for battle. Theon could feel an itching in his missing fingers.

Then he saw her. She was huddled in the darkest corner of the bedchamber, on the floor, curled up in a ball beneath a pile of wolfskins. Theon might never have spotted her but for the way she trembled. Jeyne had pulled the furs up over herself to hide.

She's naked under those wolfskins, and when it falls away they notice the teeth marks on her breasts.

I also must remark that when the fight breaks out between Hosteen and Manderly and their men, and Roose Bolton tries to silence them, as does Sheldon, Ramsay also demands the respect his father is due. That is after Roose commands both the Freys and Manderlys to battle Stannis.

I think the answer why Ramsay is in a foul mood and why Walda is so fearful is simple: Ramsay was already roused over the find of LIttle Walder. He was after all his squire, and while Hosteen had gone down to fetch the body, others must have roused Ramsay while he was abusing Jeyne. Ramsay then whispers the news to Roose and Walda, who becomes fearful. I imagine the argument between Ramsay and Roose is about what Roose intends to do about it. Once Freys and Manderlys are ordered to battle, Ramsay's content.

Illyrio Mo'Parties · January 8, 2017

17 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

For bride-stealers.

Ah, so you think if Ramsay went to the crypt it was after Jeyne left?

17 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I do however notice "drown" as a figure of speech. The hoarfrost mask is a figure of speech. And so is the drowning in wine. But he could have been drowned though. And then later the body was moved.

Yes, I know that quote of the fur cloak and how she might be naked underneath. But she isn't naked, is she. She's naked underneath. And everybody's "naked underneath" thier clothes. They still wear clothes above their nakedness. The Frey squire didn't. You don't need to get entirely naked to have sex: just unlace, unbotton (for the guys) and lift up the skirt (for women). That's the type of canoodling we witness between "Rickard" and a spearwife.

That's not the type of canoodling we witness with Rickard. The spearwife has taken off all her clothes - she's barefoot in the snow - and then wrapped up in a fur cloak. I could see a similar thing happening with the squire - let's get naked and then get under this, I dunno, blanket or bearskin or something - and then they scarper with his clothes. If GRRM wanted to suggest that the fellow had been in the hot pools, he could've easily had him found in the godswood.

Nice catch on the drowning.

17 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I agree with the impression that Ramsay and his men might be molesting little boys. However, I'm not sure LW is the victim here, since he's mentioned to develop into someone like Ramsay. Perhaps you're thinking of the abused becoming an abuser, but George shows himself competent enough when writing about characters with personality disorders and abuse that I'm confident enough in him to know that's a myth. When abusers have the choice between two possibel victims they tend to victimize the more accomodating personality while making the least one an accomplice. So, between LW and BW, the latter would be the victim while LW becomes the accomplice.

So, if LW was involved it would have been as a tormentor, but not alone imo. Then I see him play games together with Ramsay or some of his men.

Well, I don't know that I'd consider Ramsay and co. to be paedos in the sense of grooming and abusing boys (except in Theon's case, imo - but that's another story). I think they're awful, savage rapists, practically animals, and they all get drunk and rape whatever's nearby. (There's a line in one of the Reek chapters where Reek is particularly scared that Ramsay might hurt him, and Ramsay seems to be drunk.) (Plus there's the fact that Ramsay and the original Reek were taking turns on that one girl when Rodrik Cassel first meets them.)

So, if Little Walder was indeed molested by Yellow Dick - and we're way out on a limb here anyway - but I would envision it something more like, Little Walder's getting more and more involved in the gang's "fun", and Yellow Dick's quietly developed an attraction to him, and then one day when they're all drunk and being awful, Yellow Dick decides to go for it.

But thinking about it further, if Big Walder wasn't smart enough to obscure his involvement with Little Walder's murder, then why would Little Walder be smart enough to leave no forensic evidence? They're both 10-yr old boys, they're pretty dumb.

sweetsunray · January 8, 2017

4 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Ah, so you think if Ramsay went to the crypt it was after Jeyne left?

Yeah. Cantuse makes a case in his manifesto that the crypts may be the place of final confrontation between Mance and Ramsay. For this just ignore the Pink Letter.

We know that Mance, Squirrel and other spearwives intended to meet at a location not revealed to Theon, and. Squirrel put on some of Ramsay's garb and intended to climb out of the window.

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"But … Abel …"

"Abel can fend for himself," murmured Squirrel.
[snip]

Theon glanced at Squirrel. They are almost of a size. It might work. "And how does Squirrel get out?"

Squirrel answered for herself. "Out a window, and straight down to the godswood. I was twelve the first time my brother took me raiding south o' your Wall. That's where I got my name. My brother said I looked like a squirrel running up a tree. I've done that Wall six times since, over and back again. I think I can climb down some stone tower."

Rowan, Willow and Myrtle left to meet with Mance, while only Frenya and Holly joined Theon and Jeyne Poole to the walls of WF to escape. Frenya and Holly both kill a drawbridge guard of the Battlements Gate, but Jeyne screams, so Frenya volunteers to fight the assured oncoming soldiers with her spear, while Holly goes up with them and realizes Frenya still has the rope and is quarreled in the gut. Since soldiers move in on both Theon and Jeyne from left and right on the battlements. Since Frenya's murderous and the oncoming soldiers responding to Jeyne's shriek don't really know what's going on, nor who, see 2 dead guards and a murderous woman with a spear, I expect Frenya to be killed, rather than captured. Soldiers tend to go by the MO of kill first, ask questions later. So, we can exclude Holly and Frenya from an interrogation list.

We're also told that the guards outside of the keep, where Theon,the five spearwives and Jeyne Pool exit from the castle, have their backs to the battlements. They're huddled against the wall, facing the wall to keep warm. Only the sergeant spares them a quick glance, but no more. And when they are in the castle's yard, surrounded by the castle, they can't even see the castle anymore because of the snow. So, the guards can't see where anyone went either. In such a blizzard it's also quite difficult to check for footprints in the snow.

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But the guards outside were huddled by the doors, backs turned against the icy wind and blown snow. Even the serjeant did not spare them more than a quick glance. Theon felt a stab of pity for him and his men. Ramsay would flay them all when he learned his bride was gone, and what he would do to Grunt and Sour Alyn did not bear thinking about.

Not ten yards from the door, Rowan dropped her empty pail, and her sisters did likewise. The Great Keep was already lost to sight behind them. The yard was a white wilderness, full of half-heard sounds that echoed strangely amidst the storm. The icy trenches rose around them, knee high, then waist high, then higher than their heads. They were in the heart of Winterfell with the castle all around them, but no sign of it could be seen. They might have easily been lost amidst the Land of Always Winter, a thousand leagues beyond the Wall.

The sole guard who recognized Theon as Reek is dead:

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The passage twisted to the left. There before them, behind a veil of falling snow, yawned the Battlements Gate, flanked by a pair of guards. In their wool and fur and leather, they looked as big as bears. The spears they held were eight feet tall. "Who goes there?" one called out. Theon did not recognize the voice. Most of the man's features were covered by the scarf about his face. Only his eyes could be seen. "Reek, is that you?"

Yes, he meant to say. Instead he heard himself reply, "Theon Greyjoy. I … I have brought some women for you."

"You poor boys must be freezing," said Holly. "Here, let me warm you up." She slipped past the guard's spearpoint and reached up to his face, pulling loose the half-frozen scarf to plant a kiss upon his mouth. And as their lips touched, her blade slid through the meat of his neck, just below the ear. Theon saw the man's eyes widen. There was blood on Holly's lips as she stepped back, and blood dribbling from his mouth as he fell.

The second guard was still gaping in confusion when Frenya grabbed the shaft of his spear. They struggled for a moment, tugging, till the woman wrenched the weapon from his fingers and clouted him across the temple with its butt. As he stumbled backwards, she spun the spear around and drove its point through his belly with a grunt.

It would take a while before the soldiers at the battlements can figure out who actually jumped across the wall. At best they saw some old man grabbing a serving wench by the waist jumping over the battlements. As they inspect dead Holly and Frenya in serving wench clothes some will recognize them as the washerwomen. Some go to the castle to report they found the "killers" or something of that sort, and two escaped and jumped the walls, with Roose and Ramsay saying they'll be death soon out in the cold anyhow.

Add in the time it took for Theon and the spearwives to fill the pail with warm water for Jeyne Poole's batch and carrying it up the stairs, the dressing, the going down, and there's actually ample time for Mance to make an excuse and leave, especially since Manderlys and Freys will be preparing for their exit, two separate gates had to be chipped free from ice, and there would be some conferring with Roose.

Quote

Myrtle had servant's garb for Rowan. "The yards are crawling with fools," she warned them. "They mean to ride out."

"Kneelers," said Willow, with a snort of contempt. "Their lordly lord spoke, they must obey."

[snip]

"Aye, m'lord," the boy said. "At once, m'lord."

"At once" took longer than Theon would have liked. None of the big kettles was clean, so the potboy had to scrub one out before filling it with water. Then it seemed to take forever to come to a rolling boil and twice forever to fill six wooden pails. All the while Abel's women waited, their faces shadowed by their cowls. They are doing it all wrong. Real serving girls were always teasing the potboys, flirting with the cooks, wheedling a taste of this, a bite of that.

We're not talking about half an hour after Theon left the hall, but more like 1-2 hours since breakfast, with a lot of stuff going on for Mance to slip away, and add another hour before they figure out there's a connection between the two washerwomen, the other washerwomen and Abel and realize they have to look for them.

I'm not saying they won't figure it out, but it would require far more time than most readers assume in their mind. Theon himself is so apprehensive and sure they will be instantly found out that George manages to convince the reader into believing the same: that the men approaching on the battlements instantly recognized Theon and Ramsay's bride, that they instantly recognize Frenya and Holly as the washerwomen, and that within 5 mins Roose and Ramsay will put 2 and 2 together, that Mance is still singing in the hall and somehow the blizzard has stopped and you just have to follow the footsteps of the washerwomen. That's Theon's fear and dillusion, but not realistic at all. Time and time again, he's surprised how nobody looks or hardly recognizes him once he leaves. Only the guards at the kitchen, the keep and outside of Jeyne's room are alive still and know about the bath, that Theon went there with 6 serving girls. Only the guards at the kitchen realized the serving girls weren't the usual ones.

Quote

Winterfell's cavernous kitchen occupied a building all its own, set well apart from the castle's main halls and keeps in case of fire. Inside, the smells changed hour by hour—an ever-changing perfume of roast meats, leeks and onions, fresh-baked bread. Roose Bolton had posted guards at the kitchen door. With so many mouths to feed, every scrap of food was precious. Even the cooks and potboys were watched constantly. But the guards knew Reek. They liked to taunt him when he came to fetch hot water for Lady Arya's bath. None of them dared go further than that, though. Reek was known to be Lord Ramsay's pet.

"The Prince of Stink is come for some hot water," one guard announced when Theon and his serving girls appeared before him. He pushed the door open for them. "Quick now, before all that sweet warm air escapes."

[snip]

All the while Abel's women waited, their faces shadowed by their cowls. They are doing it all wrong. Real serving girls were always teasing the potboys, flirting with the cooks, wheedling a taste of this, a bite of that. Rowan and her scheming sisters did not want to attract notice, but their sullen silence soon had the guards giving them queer looks. "Where's Maisie and Jez and t'other girls?" one asked Theon. "The usual ones."

"Lady Arya was displeased with them," he lied. "Her water was cold before it reached the tub last time."

So, while the information is out there for Ramsay and Roose to figure it out, it's spread out. The kitchen guards won't leave their post soon (does make you wonder where the guards were when Yellow Dick was displayed). Jeyne's guards won't leave their post soon. Etc. So, it's bound to take hours before they have all the info of what went on outside, before they realize Theon leaped from the wall. And in all that time, if nobody entered Jeyne's room, they haven't even the "foggiest" (quite literally) that Ramsay's bride is gone. Anyhow, Mance and the remaining 4 spearwives have ample time to hide somewhere, while the blizzard hampers the sight for search, half the soldiers won't know where's what, and the tracks are either whirled up by wind and snow or just a few in the thousands of tracks of horses and soldiers making ready to leave. Once the search starts though, they're going to use the dogs and any piece of information they can get.

Now, Squirrel indicates she's going to the godswood, but is that where Mance is going with the 3 others?

Mance chose the name Abel, a play on Bael, the king beyond the wall who stole a WF rose and hid with her in the crypts. For Mance, Bael is the hero he tries to emulate. And Holly did ask Theon about the crypts. So, Mance is interested in them. Why? Some suppose an exit, secret tunnel (for which there's no legend), others like me suspect he considered a hide-out back up plan, where Mance makes use of Bael's crypt legend for his own use.

Cantuse points out that we learn how good Mance is with the sword. He doesn't even break a sweat against Jon. We also learn that Ramsay's no better than a peasant with the sword, just hacking about. And when Theon goes up the serpentine stairs of the tower towards Jeyne's room he remembers Rodrik Cassel training their sword fighting skills on the stairs.

Quote

Theon led the way up the stairs. I have climbed these steps a thousand times before. As a boy he would run up; descending, he would take the steps three at a time, leaping. Once he leapt right into Old Nan and knocked her to the floor. That earned him the worst thrashing he ever had at Winterfell, though it was almost tender compared to the beatings his brothers used to give him back on Pyke. He and Robb had fought many a heroic battle on these steps, slashing at one another with wooden swords. Good training, that; it brought home how hard it was to fight your way up a spiral stair against determined opposition. Ser Rodrik liked to say that one good man could hold a hundred, fighting down.

"one good man can hold a hundred, fighting down". And I agree with Cantuse that seems a checkhov paragraph. I truly don't think that George wrote that without coming it into play somehow. I doubt it will be on those stairs though. Any other location with spiral stairs? The crypts have spiral stairs.

9 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

That's not the type of canoodling we witness with Rickard. The spearwife has taken off all her clothes - she's barefoot in the snow - and then wrapped up in a fur cloak. I could see a similar thing happening with the squire - let's get naked and then get under this, I dunno, blanket or bearskin or something - and then they scarper with his clothes. If GRRM wanted to suggest that the fellow had been in the hot pools, he could've easily had him found in the godswood.

I repeat that Rickard (a norhterner) isn't naked. She's still bundled up in a fur, and she's a wildling from beyond the wall. And the Frey squire is a southerner. Think of the mountain clans not suffering from the cold, while Stannis's men suffer.

I don't think GRRM wanted to suggest the "hot pools", he suggested a paradoxical, typical murder mystery where something is out of place and simply doesn't add up. If he wanted it to be easily solved, then yes he would have him found in the godswood. He didn't want it to be easily solved imo.

9 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

But thinking about it further, if Big Walder wasn't smart enough to obscure his involvement with Little Walder's murder, then why would Little Walder be smart enough to leave no forensic evidence? They're both 10-yr old boys, they're pretty dumb.

I wouldn't say BW is all that dumb, but I agree that if BW used a weapon, then so would have LW, who's imo the less brighter ones of the two of them.

estermonty python · January 9, 2017

On 1/6/2017 at 8:35 PM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Go ahead, keep on underestimating him. That's what the rest of the Freys will be doing... right up til it's twenty years later and suddenly they're like, holy shit, Big Walder's 3rd in line? And why does my soup taste so funny? Oh god, I'm shitting blood blaaaarrrghg and I'm dead.

Big Walder's got big dreams and big balls, and he's not to be fucked with

And this year's Academy Award goes to @Illyrio Mo'Parties for his immersive and stunning portrayal of Malwyn Frey.

On 1/6/2017 at 8:38 PM, sweetsunray said:

I made an entire list of the tree as far as BW a few months ago in another thread regarding the LW murder, with the ones who died, and marking those we can assume to be in line. Normally the daughters and granddaughters should come ahead as well, but those we can safely discount from managing to get the backing of the rest of the family. 9 year old Walda, versus her uncle Black Walder or her great uncles? No chance she'll win that one.

There are certainly signs, clues and hints to speculate that there will be a Red Wedding at Riverrun with Lannisters present and Freys. Several of those "squired" out are squired out with Westerland lords and could be expected to be present when the Warden of the West, Daven Lannister weds a Frey girl at Riverrun, the castle of the father/grandfather. Others are squired with Paeges and other Riverlands houses that are direct bannermen of the Freys. Several of those would also be present at the wedding.

Not all the Freys would be present of course, but we can ealso expect a civil war between the remaining ones, including the daughters participating in it. Within just a few events, by the end of tWoW, BW could easily be 10th in line, or less.

Now, I'm not of the opinion that BW killed LW in cold blood to remove just one rival alone. I can get fully behind the idea that it was self defense, or to keep LW from spilling beans about something to Ramsay. But there is no love lost between those two, and I can see BW not caring much about LW being dead for various reasons, including that is one less Frey ahead of him. If George wants him to be Lord of the Crossing, he'll be Lord of the Crossing.

@sweetsunray you put us all to shame, all the time. Alright, let's do this again.

Stevron - dead
Ryman - dead
Edwyn - alive. Actually a character. Probably in peril between Black Walder and the BWB
Black Walder - alive. Actually a character. Probably in peril between Edwyn and the BWB
Petyr - dead
Jinglebell - dead
Walton - alive. We've never met him. Married a Hardyng, interestingly enough.
Steffon the Sweet - alive. We've never met him. Half Hardying.
Bryan - alive. We've never met him. Half-Harding. A squire somewhere.
Emmon - alive. Actually a character. In peril from the BWB, and possibly other Lannister enemies.
Cleos - dead
Ty - alive. Presumably at Riverrun, as Emmon's heir. Half-Darry. Probably in the same peril as Emmon.
Willem - alive. Unclear where he is. Half-Darry.
Lyonel - alive. Married a Crakehall.
Tion - dead
Red Walder - alive. A page at Casterly Rock. Could be too young to inherit, but also seems well-protected by the Lannisters.
Aenys - dead
Bloodborn - alive, but an outlaw.
Rhaegar - dead
Robert (son of Rhaegar) - alive. We've never met him and know nothing about him.
Jonos - alive. We've never met him and know nothing about him.
Jared - dead
Tytos - dead
Zachery - alive, but studying to be a septon
Luceon - alive, but a septon (who would have been elected High Septon if it weren't for the Sparrows)
Hosteen - alive. Actually a character. In peril from Stannis and his army.
Arwood - alive. Stayed in Darry. Potentially in peril from the Sparrows.
Androw - alive. Age is unclear, but Hosteen is his grandfather, and Hosteen isn't old, so he probably isn't even old enough to squire.
Alyn - alive. Twin to Androw.
Symond - dead
Alesander - alive, but a travelling singer.
Bradamar - alive, but in Braavos. Probably in peril from Arya, tbh.
Danwell - alive. Actually a character. Last we heard he stayed in Darry. Potentially in peril from the Sparrows.
Merrett - dead
Little Walder - dead
Geremy - dead
Sandor - alive. Squiring for Donnell Waynwood in the Vale. Ser Donnell seems fairly important as far as folks in the Vale are concerned - he saved Cat and Tyrion in Book 1, and replaced the Blackfish as Knight of the Gate. It would behoove Littlefinger to keep this kid close, and safe, just in case.
Raymund - alive. Actually a character. Lost track of him after he killed Cat. As he killed Cat, there is no way he survives the series. In peril from the BWB, book readers, and the Gods.
Robert (son of Raymund) - alive, but studying to be a Maester.
Malwyn - alive, but apprenticed to an alchemist in Lys.
Tywin - alive, but a newborn
Jaime - alive, but a newborn
Lame Lothar - alive. Actually a character. Not actually sure where he is at the moment.
Jammos - alive. No idea where he is.
Big Walder - alive. Actually a character.

So, if we eliminate all those who are dead, in Essos, unable to inherit due to their vows (or future vows), or are definitely infants, Big Walder is around 20th in line. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Stannis's forces kill Hosteen in the upcoming battle, the BWB kill Emmon and his heirs, and the Sparrows imprison and/or kill the Freys in Darry. Let's also assume that Edwyn and Black Walder take each other out somehow. That leaves a bunch of Freys we've barely even heard of: Walton, Steffon, Bryan, Red Walder, Robert, Jonos, and Sandor. The youngest of them (Jonos) is around Big Walder's age, maybe a year younger at most. Red Walder is in Casterly Rock, Sandor is at the Bloody Gate of the Eyrie, making both extremely well-protected at the moment.

Next we have Lame Lothar, who I have personally lost track of - maybe someone can fill me in.

Then comes Jammos, Big Walder's father. I know nothing about him or where he is.

So I can spin a story that puts Big Walder 10th in line if everything falls right. I don't really know how literally every Frey can go to Daven's wedding - that seems tough with Frey men in at least 4 different castles at the moment, no? Even if all the Freys go to the wedding, including Red Walder in the Lannister contingent, and they are all killed, you'd still have Sandor Frey in the Vale, who definitely will NOT be leaving the Vale.

That said, I agree with your essential point: if GRRM wants Big Walder to "inherit" the Twins, he will inherit the Twins!

On 1/6/2017 at 8:50 PM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Anyway, his mission from Melisandre was to rescue Arya, and... oh, I see. You think he's still carrying that mission out, but he's just realised that her vision must've been wrong? That's probably a pretty decent explanation... but there's still the possibility that he's got something of his own cooking as well. He wants into them crypts, and he mentioned a "ploy" for which he needed spearwives.

I suppose that could just be a fuck-up: Mance is prepared to rescue Arya from Winterfell before he can know that she's in Winterfell, and the accelerated publishing schedule (and/or the publishers putting their foot down and saying, Goddammit George, it's five years late, fuck you, we're publishing whatever you've got, right now!) meant that they didn't catch it.

Unless Mance knew all along he'd be going to Winterfell. Which means that he knew that Melisandre's vision was wrong all along. Which suggests that he somehow gave her the vision, which suggests that he's crafty enough to have devised the whole thing in order to get out of Castle Black without being chased and in to Winterfell without anybody knowing that's where he was going... which would make Mance a next-level mega-genius... which would explain (a) how he made himself a king inside of twenty years, and (b) why he was important enough to mentioned right at the start of book 1: because he's awesome.

This is almost certainly so much tinfoil, but I'm going to remember this just in case. If it's right, then I'll be the mega-genius. Maybe I'll get a merit badge of my own!

Thanks for the note of caution re: wild theorising. But I have to slightly disagree re: Dustin's crypt-trip having no plot significance. She doesn't want Theon telling anybody about it - I always took that to mean she didn't want him telling Roose about it. Although I just checked the text and maybe that's a bridge too far. But if it's not, that means she's breaking with Roose.

@Illyrio Mo'Parties did we just become best friends? I think we did.

re: Mance, I suppose I thought that Mance was physically unable to do anything other than what Melisandre wanted - maybe I'm wrong? At any rate, he's been to Winterfell before, so why wouldn't he have done whatever it is he wanted to do back when he was there in Book 1?

Mance IS a next-level mega-genius, but I don't think he necessarily manipulated Melisandre. That's a bit beyond his powers.

I don't think we actually disagree re: Barbrey Dustin. I'm with you that she'll break with Roose, and that her convo with Theon reinforces that. I just don't buy that she's integrated herself into an organized conspiracy, mostly because I don't believe that Wyman, Robett, or anyone else would believe in her commitment to the cause.

Lost Melnibonean · January 9, 2017

On 1/8/2017 at 11:34 AM, sweetsunray said:

Yeah. Cantuse makes a case in his manifesto that the crypts may be the place of final confrontation between Mance and Ramsay. For this just ignore the Pink Letter.

We know that Mance, Squirrel and other spearwives intended to meet at a location not revealed to Theon, and. Squirrel put on some of Ramsay's garb and intended to climb out of the window.

Rowan, Willow and Myrtle left to meet with Mance, while only Frenya and Holly joined Theon and Jeyne Poole to the walls of WF to escape. Frenya and Holly both kill a drawbridge guard of the Battlements Gate, but Jeyne screams, so Frenya volunteers to fight the assured oncoming soldiers with her spear, while Holly goes up with them and realizes Frenya still has the rope and is quarreled in the gut. Since soldiers move in on both Theon and Jeyne from left and right on the battlements. Since Frenya's murderous and the oncoming soldiers responding to Jeyne's shriek don't really know what's going on, nor who, see 2 dead guards and a murderous woman with a spear, I expect Frenya to be killed, rather than captured. Soldiers tend to go by the MO of kill first, ask questions later. So, we can exclude Holly and Frenya from an interrogation list.

We're also told that the guards outside of the keep, where Theon,the five spearwives and Jeyne Pool exit from the castle, have their backs to the battlements. They're huddled against the wall, facing the wall to keep warm. Only the sergeant spares them a quick glance, but no more. And when they are in the castle's yard, surrounded by the castle, they can't even see the castle anymore because of the snow. So, the guards can't see where anyone went either. In such a blizzard it's also quite difficult to check for footprints in the snow.

The sole guard who recognized Theon as Reek is dead:

It would take a while before the soldiers at the battlements can figure out who actually jumped across the wall. At best they saw some old man grabbing a serving wench by the waist jumping over the battlements. As they inspect dead Holly and Frenya in serving wench clothes some will recognize them as the washerwomen. Some go to the castle to report they found the "killers" or something of that sort, and two escaped and jumped the walls, with Roose and Ramsay saying they'll be death soon out in the cold anyhow.

Add in the time it took for Theon and the spearwives to fill the pail with warm water for Jeyne Poole's batch and carrying it up the stairs, the dressing, the going down, and there's actually ample time for Mance to make an excuse and leave, especially since Manderlys and Freys will be preparing for their exit, two separate gates had to be chipped free from ice, and there would be some conferring with Roose.

We're not talking about half an hour after Theon left the hall, but more like 1-2 hours since breakfast, with a lot of stuff going on for Mance to slip away, and add another hour before they figure out there's a connection between the two washerwomen, the other washerwomen and Abel and realize they have to look for them.

I'm not saying they won't figure it out, but it would require far more time than most readers assume in their mind. Theon himself is so apprehensive and sure they will be instantly found out that George manages to convince the reader into believing the same: that the men approaching on the battlements instantly recognized Theon and Ramsay's bride, that they instantly recognize Frenya and Holly as the washerwomen, and that within 5 mins Roose and Ramsay will put 2 and 2 together, that Mance is still singing in the hall and somehow the blizzard has stopped and you just have to follow the footsteps of the washerwomen. That's Theon's fear and dillusion, but not realistic at all. Time and time again, he's surprised how nobody looks or hardly recognizes him once he leaves. Only the guards at the kitchen, the keep and outside of Jeyne's room are alive still and know about the bath, that Theon went there with 6 serving girls. Only the guards at the kitchen realized the serving girls weren't the usual ones.

So, while the information is out there for Ramsay and Roose to figure it out, it's spread out. The kitchen guards won't leave their post soon (does make you wonder where the guards were when Yellow Dick was displayed). Jeyne's guards won't leave their post soon. Etc. So, it's bound to take hours before they have all the info of what went on outside, before they realize Theon leaped from the wall. And in all that time, if nobody entered Jeyne's room, they haven't even the "foggiest" (quite literally) that Ramsay's bride is gone. Anyhow, Mance and the remaining 4 spearwives have ample time to hide somewhere, while the blizzard hampers the sight for search, half the soldiers won't know where's what, and the tracks are either whirled up by wind and snow or just a few in the thousands of tracks of horses and soldiers making ready to leave. Once the search starts though, they're going to use the dogs and any piece of information they can get.

Now, Squirrel indicates she's going to the godswood, but is that where Mance is going with the 3 others?

Mance chose the name Abel, a play on Bael, the king beyond the wall who stole a WF rose and hid with her in the crypts. For Mance, Bael is the hero he tries to emulate. And Holly did ask Theon about the crypts. So, Mance is interested in them. Why? Some suppose an exit, secret tunnel (for which there's no legend), others like me suspect he considered a hide-out back up plan, where Mance makes use of Bael's crypt legend for his own use.

Cantuse points out that we learn how good Mance is with the sword. He doesn't even break a sweat against Jon. We also learn that Ramsay's no better than a peasant with the sword, just hacking about.

Excellent.

sweetsunray · January 9, 2017

2 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Red Walder is in Casterly Rock, Sandor is at the Bloody Gate of the Eyrie, making both extremely well-protected at the moment.

Next we have Lame Lothar, who I have personally lost track of - maybe someone can fill me in.

Then comes Jammos, Big Walder's father. I know nothing about him or where he is.

The wedding of Daven Lannister and Frey daughter/granddaughter is between the Warden of the West + Frey. I'm also more inclined to believe that wedding would happen in Riverrun. Don't think Daven is keen on doing a wedding in the Twins, and Riverrun is the castle where he led the siege (though it was Jaime who finished it). So, I think quite a few Lannisters of CR and Lannisport and Westerland lords with sons will show up, and thus also the Freys that squire in the Westerlands. So I expect Red Walder to be present as well as the one squiring for Crakehall.

This expectation also fits with him being Emmon's son. He's a page, so serving someone of CR (the CR Lannisters, and Daven is the son of Tywin's brother in law, Stafford Lannister who died at Oxcross), even though he's 14.

And finally he's called Red Walder. If George marks someone or something as red our alarm bells should go off. It reminds me of anyone with a red-blood smile or riding a red/blood bay stallion.

If he remains at the Rock however, there's still the large possibility that we can expect the Rock to be sacked by Tyrion in Dreams, and then Red Walder would be killed in that battle.

Red Walder is a walking dead boy imo.

:lmao: at the one called Sandor and he's a squire of Donnel Waynwood. :lmao: Oh, the irony of it all. Ok, imo you can count him as dead as he can be. I have a prediction theory of two events we can expect to happen in the Vale: 1) a deadly avalanche that will kill many knights and lords at the Gates of the Moon, and damage the battlements of the pass of the Bloody Gate 2) an attack by an alliance of mountain clans, re-armed by Tyrion in aCoK and aGoT, and led by the Burned Men, on the Bloody Gate that will be successful for the first time ever. Again many will be killed here. If you want to be safe in the Vale, I think you need to be at Royce's Runestone or be truly called Sansa Stark. (the theory is called Sansa and the Giants, see link in sig)

I'm lolling so much because @Blue-Eyed Wolf proposed the crackpot theory that Ser Byron who's with the Mad Mouse and Ser Morgarth may be a glamored Sandor Clegane, and that Ser Morgarth is the Elder of the Quiet Isle. Realizing that the Frey called Sandor is at the Vale at the Bloody Gate in light of both theories is like a cherry on top.

Anyway, for me Sandor Frey can be scrapped of the list: he either dies in an avalanche, a rockslide or at the hands of a man of the mountain clans. I seem to remember that his sister was also a ward of Anya Waynwood. Not sure whether she's in Anya's retinue at the Gates of the Moon.

Lame Lothar is the steward of the Twins. So, he's not going anywhere soon methinks. He won't be at the RW2 nor any of the places suspected to be attacked by BwB. He's very much like BW: cunning, well-spoken, and probably the smartest of Walder Frey's sons. I think he will become the Frey who comes out winning of the Frey-family war between Black Walder and Edwyn,because they will take half brothers with them in that war. Lame Lothar will play both sides and walk away with the prize. But he won't survive. Merrett told LS and the BwB that Lothar organized the red wedding's practicalities, and who would do what, to the tiniest details. He's a wanted man by them for sure. So, I predict that Lothar's brother will be the man we'll see as the last Lord of the Crossing, welcoming his heir Big Walder home. There might be a few Freys here or there in Essos but I don't think they'll return to make a claim.

estermonty python · January 9, 2017

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

The wedding of Daven Lannister and Frey daughter/granddaughter is between the Warden of the West + Frey. I'm also more inclined to believe that wedding would happen in Riverrun. Don't think Daven is keen on doing a wedding in the Twins, and Riverrun is the castle where he led the siege (though it was Jaime who finished it). So, I think quite a few Lannisters of CR and Lannisport and Westerland lords with sons will show up, and thus also the Freys that squire in the Westerlands. So I expect Red Walder to be present as well as the one squiring for Crakehall.

This expectation also fits with him being Emmon's son. He's a page, so serving someone of CR (the CR Lannisters, and Daven is the son of Tywin's brother in law, Stafford Lannister who died at Oxcross), even though he's 14.

And finally he's called Red Walder. If George marks someone or something as red our alarm bells should go off. It reminds me of anyone with a red-blood smile or riding a red/blood bay stallion.

If he remains at the Rock however, there's still the large possibility that we can expect the Rock to be sacked by Tyrion in Dreams, and then Red Walder would be killed in that battle.

Red Walder is a walking dead boy imo.

at the one called Sandor and he's a squire of Donnel Waynwood. Oh, the irony of it all. Ok, imo you can count him as dead as he can be. I have a prediction theory of two events we can expect to happen in the Vale: 1) a deadly avalanche that will kill many knights and lords at the Gates of the Moon, and damage the battlements of the pass of the Bloody Gate 2) an attack by an alliance of mountain clans, re-armed by Tyrion in aCoK and aGoT, and led by the Burned Men, on the Bloody Gate that will be successful for the first time ever. Again many will be killed here. If you want to be safe in the Vale, I think you need to be at Royce's Runestone or be truly called Sansa Stark. (the theory is called Sansa and the Giants, see link in sig)

I'm lolling so much because @Blue-Eyed Wolf proposed the crackpot theory that Ser Byron who's with the Mad Mouse and Ser Morgarth may be a glamored Sandor Clegane, and that Ser Morgarth is the Elder of the Quiet Isle. Realizing that the Frey called Sandor is at the Vale at the Bloody Gate in light of both theories is like a cherry on top.

Anyway, for me Sandor Frey can be scrapped of the list: he either dies in an avalanche, a rockslide or at the hands of a man of the mountain clans. I seem to remember that his sister was also a ward of Anya Waynwood. Not sure whether she's in Anya's retinue at the Gates of the Moon.

Lame Lothar is the steward of the Twins. So, he's not going anywhere soon methinks. He won't be at the RW2 nor any of the places suspected to be attacked by BwB. He's very much like BW: cunning, well-spoken, and probably the smartest of Walder Frey's sons. I think he will become the Frey who comes out winning of the Frey-family war between Black Walder and Edwyn,because they will take half brothers with them in that war. Lame Lothar will play both sides and walk away with the prize. But he won't survive. Merrett told LS and the BwB that Lothar organized the red wedding's practicalities, and who would do what, to the tiniest details. He's a wanted man by them for sure. So, I predict that Lothar's brother will be the man we'll see as the last Lord of the Crossing, welcoming his heir Big Walder home. There might be a few Freys here or there in Essos but I don't think they'll return to make a claim.

I love all of this. I agree that Riverrun is the likely location of Daven's wedding, and I read the tea leaves the same way you do that Lame Lothar is the best situated to take advantage of a Frey massacre.

I get the irony of the Hound reemerging in the Vale for Sansa's sake with Sandor Frey also there, but I'm not sure I get how he could be glamored, or why he and Elder Brother would go to the Vale.

sweetsunray · January 9, 2017

So, when it comes to the Frey inheritence line (excluding girls) + speculative deaths, I end up with

Stevron - dead
- Ryman - dead
  - Edwyn - alive. Actually a character. Civil war with Black Walder
  - Black Walder - alive. Actually a character. Civil war with Edwyn
  - Petyr - dead
- Jinglebell - dead
- Walton - alive. We've never met him. Married a Hardyng, interestingly enough. We did get to meet his daughter Fair Walda at the Twins, so Walton is at the Twins imo. He might have hoped Robb would have chosen Fair Walda as his bride. Expect him to be involved in Civil war between Black Walder and Edwyn.
  - Steffon the Sweet - alive. We've never met him. Half Hardying. Since he's not mentioned to be a squire and his sister is at the Twins for the RW, I think Walton and Steffon are at the Twins.
  - Bryan - alive. We've never met him. Half-Harding. A squire somewhere.
Emmon - alive. Actually a character. RW2. The bloody red smile of sourleaf.
- Cleos - dead
  - Ty - alive. Presumably at Riverrun, as Emmon's heir. Half-Darry. RW2.
  - Willem - alive. Unclear where he is, but likely at RR for RW2. Half-Darry.
- Lyonel - alive. Married a Crakehall, bannermen of Lannisters. Daven Lannister is Warden of the West. RW2.
- Tion - dead
- Red Walder - alive. 14 year old page at Casterly Rock. Either present for RW2 or Sack of the Rock.
Aenys - dead
- Aegon Bloodborn - alive, but an outlaw.
- Rhaegar - dead
  - Robert (son of Rhaegar) - alive. We've never met him and know nothing about him.
  - Jonos - alive. We've never met him and know nothing about him.
Jared - dead
- Tytos - dead
  - Zachery - alive, but studying to be a septon
Luceon - alive, but a septon (who would have been elected High Septon if it weren't for the Sparrows)
Hosteen - alive. Actually a character. Expected to drown an icy death. Married Hawick, seat Saltpans.
- Arwood - alive. Stayed in Darry. Potentially in peril from the Sparrows/BwB. Married Ryella Royce. Their firstborn Ryella was not presented as a true Frey maiden to Robb, but they have a newborn daughter in the aFfC appendix.
  - Androw - alive. 4 years old (aFfC appendix). They're either at Twins or Darry..
  - Alyn - alive. Twin to Androw. They're either at Twins or Darry..
Symond - dead
- Alesander - alive, but a travelling singer.
- Bradamar - alive, but in Braavos. Probably in peril from Arya, tbh, or smart enough to never return to Westeros.
Danwell - alive. Actually a character. Last we heard he stayed in Darry. Potentially in peril from the Sparrows/BwB.
Merrett - dead
- Little Walder - dead
Geremy - dead
- Sandor - alive. Squiring for Donnell Waynwood, knight of the Bloody Gate in the Vale. In peril of avalanche, rockslide or attack of mountain clans
Raymund - alive. Actually a character. Lost track of him after he killed Cat. As he killed Cat, there is no way he survives the series. In peril from the BWB, book readers, and the Gods.
- Robert (son of Raymund) - alive, but studying to be a Maester.
- Malwyn - alive, but apprenticed to an alchemist in Lys.
- Tywin - alive, but a newborn
- Jaime - alive, but a newborn
Lame Lothar - alive. Actually a character. Steward of the Twins. Expect him to stay around for a long while, but has neon target on his head for being the meticulous organizer of the RW.
Jammos - alive. No idea where he is.
- Big Walder - alive. Actually a character. Claims he will be Lord of the Crossing.

So, basically most of the male adults we can expect to perish in Winds and Dreams, including several grandsons for squiring or celebrating at the wrong time in the wrong place. 4 of the remaining competition of BW at present are between 0-4 years. It's so easy to have an accident at such ages. It can happen.

Lost Melnibonean · January 9, 2017

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

So, when it comes to the Frey inheritence line (excluding girls) + speculative deaths, I end up with

Stevron - dead
Ryman - dead
Edwyn - alive. Actually a character. Civil war with Black Walder

Black Walder - alive. Actually a character. Civil war with Edwyn

Petyr - dead

Jinglebell - dead

Walton - alive. We've never met him. Married a Hardyng, interestingly enough. We did get to meet his daughter Fair Walda at the Twins, so Walton is at the Twins imo. He might have hoped Robb would have chosen Fair Walda as his bride. Expect him to be involved in Civil war between Black Walder and Edwyn.
Steffon the Sweet - alive. We've never met him. Half Hardying. Since he's not mentioned to be a squire and his sister is at the Twins for the RW, I think Walton and Steffon are at the Twins.

Bryan - alive. We've never met him. Half-Harding. A squire somewhere.

Emmon - alive. Actually a character. RW2. The bloody red smile of sourleaf.
Cleos - dead
Ty - alive. Presumably at Riverrun, as Emmon's heir. Half-Darry. RW2.

Willem - alive. Unclear where he is, but likely at RR for RW2. Half-Darry.

Lyonel - alive. Married a Crakehall, bannermen of Lannisters. Daven Lannister is Warden of the West. RW2.

Tion - dead

Red Walder - alive. 14 year old page at Casterly Rock. Either present for RW2 or Sack of the Rock.

Aenys - dead
Aegon Bloodborn - alive, but an outlaw.

Rhaegar - dead
Robert (son of Rhaegar) - alive. We've never met him and know nothing about him.

Jonos - alive. We've never met him and know nothing about him.

Jared - dead
Tytos - dead
Zachery - alive, but studying to be a septon

Luceon - alive, but a septon (who would have been elected High Septon if it weren't for the Sparrows)

Hosteen - alive. Actually a character. Expected to drown an icy death. Married Hawick, seat Saltpans.
Arwood - alive. Stayed in Darry. Potentially in peril from the Sparrows/BwB. Married Ryella Royce. Their firstborn Ryella was not presented as a true Frey maiden to Robb, but they have a newborn daughter in the aFfC appendix.
Androw - alive. 4 years old (aFfC appendix). They're either at Twins or Darry..

Alyn - alive. Twin to Androw. They're either at Twins or Darry..

Symond - dead
Alesander - alive, but a travelling singer.

Bradamar - alive, but in Braavos. Probably in peril from Arya, tbh, or smart enough to never return to Westeros.

Danwell - alive. Actually a character. Last we heard he stayed in Darry. Potentially in peril from the Sparrows/BwB.

Merrett - dead
Little Walder - dead

Geremy - dead
Sandor - alive. Squiring for Donnell Waynwood, knight of the Bloody Gate in the Vale. In peril of avalanche, rockslide or attack of mountain clans

Raymund - alive. Actually a character. Lost track of him after he killed Cat. As he killed Cat, there is no way he survives the series. In peril from the BWB, book readers, and the Gods.
Robert (son of Raymund) - alive, but studying to be a Maester.

Malwyn - alive, but apprenticed to an alchemist in Lys.

Tywin - alive, but a newborn

Jaime - alive, but a newborn

Lame Lothar - alive. Actually a character. Steward of the Twins. Expect him to stay around for a long while, but has neon target on his head for being the meticulous organizer of the RW.

Jammos - alive. No idea where he is.
Big Walder - alive. Actually a character. Claims he will be Lord of the Crossing.

So, basically most of the male adults we can expect to perish in Winds and Dreams, including several grandsons for squiring or celebrating at the wrong time in the wrong place. 4 of the remaining competition of BW at present are between 0-4 years. It's so easy to have an accident at such ages. It can happen.

I don't know... by my count, he still has 61 heirs in front of him.

Edwyn Frey

Walda Frey-Hunter

Black Walder Frey

Perra Frey-Caron

Maeggelle Frey-Lydden

Walder Vance-Frey

Patrek Vance-Frey

Marianne Vance-Frey

Walton Frey-Waynwood

Steffon Frey-Harrdyng

Bryan Frey-Harrdyng

Fair Walda Frey-Harrdyng

Emmon Frey-Royce

Tywin Frey-Darry

Willem Frey-Darry

Lyonel Frey-Lannister

Red Walder Frey-Lannister

Robert Frey-Beesbury

Jonos Frey-Beesbury

White Walda Frey-Beesbury

Perriane Frey-Wylde

Harys Haigh-Frey

Walder Haigh

Donnel Haigh-Frey

Alyn Haigh-Frey

Zia Frey-Blanetree

Kyra Frey

Walder Goodbrook-Frey

Jeyne Goodbrook-Frey

Hosteen Frey-Crakehall

Arwood Frey-Harwick

Androw Frey-Royce

Alyn Frey-Royce

Ryella Frey-Royce

Hostella Frey-Royce

Alesander Frey

Bradamar Frey

Alys Frey

Danwell Frey Crakehall

Amerei Gatehouse Ami Frey-Darry

Fat Walda Frey-Darry

Marissa Frey-Darry

Sandor Frey-Waynwood

Cynthea Frey-Waynwood

Raymund Frey-Crakehall

Malwyn Frey-Beesbury

Tywin Frey-Beesbury

Jaime Frey-Beesbury

Sarra Frey-Beesbury

Serra Frey-Beesbury

Cersei Frey-Beesbury

Lythene Frey-Crakehall

Damon Vypren-Frey

Elaena Vypren-Frey

Rickard Wylde-Vypren

Lothar Frey-Blackwood

Tysane Frey-Lefford

Walda Frey-Lefford

Emerlei Frey-Lefford

Leana Frey-Lefford

Jammos Frey-Blackwood

Big Walder Frey-Paege

estermonty python · January 9, 2017

@sweetsunray Thanks for expanding on my list! One thing that I find interesting is Walder's obvious attempt to get his Frey tentacles into as many places as possible, especially the Vale. His marriages resemble a financial portfolio - heavy on the Riverlands, but with special emphasis on the powerful secondary houses: Hardying, Royce, and Waynwood in the Vale, Crakehall in the Westerlands, Bolton in the North, plus carefully placed pages and squires at Casterly Rock, Winterfell, and the Eyrie. He's been covering his bases since around the time of Robert's Rebellion, its clear: while he didn't contribute troops he was quite busy quietly placing Freys in prominent vassal houses to the rebel leaders.

As for Big Walder and Lame Lothar, I think we can safely discount the infants whether they stay alive or not. It's true they could easily die, but even if they don't, it's not like Lame Lothar is going to cede control to Hosteen's 4 year old twins, nor would anyone expect him to.

What might get a bit more interesting are the claims of Gatehouse Ami and Fat Walda, if it comes down to Merrett's line. The Lannisters would have a profound interest in House Lannister of Darry claiming the Twins - but with Lancel going all opus dei I'm not sure exactly how they press that claim. Technically the unborn child of Roose Bolton and Fat Walda, if male, would slot in one spot behind Little Walder in the line of succession; while that would involve passing through a female line (which we've discounted), if the Boltons were to maintain and consolidate power, they might be inclined to exert their influence, through war if necessary, to make a Bolton the Lord of the Crossing. Wouldn't that be something.

That makes me think - what if Fat Walda's baby turns up dead, and everyone assumes it was Ramsay, but it was actually Big Walder, to keep the kid from jumping him in the line of succession? That would be a neat bit of irony.

sweetsunray · January 9, 2017

@Lost Melnibonean

Based on the large amount of sons, brothers, uncles, etc who are vying for power it's unlikely that the women, let alone daughters, or children of Frey daughters married to one of the bannermen of House Frey (Haigh, Goodbrook and Paige) will get a chance at being Lady of the Crossing. There's no way imo that Lame Lothar or Black Walder are going to let a niece or a half sister stand in their way. That's why we completely ignored them. They're going to be killed or married with. It's been part of Black Walder's strategy to devalue these girls by bedding them or the wives of his half uncles and half brothers. It throws a taint on the children, so they won't get any military backing.

sweetsunray · January 9, 2017

21 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

It's true they could easily die, but even if they don't, it's not like Lame Lothar is going to cede control to Hosteen's 4 year old twins, nor would anyone expect him to.

Agreed. I do think that since Lame Lothar has only 4 daughters, he and his younger full blooded brothers will stick together. It wouldn't surprise me if he had anything to do with putting Big Walder up to be a ward of Catelyn at Winterfell in the first place. It was safely and far away from the Twins. And once Darry's were dying and only a child lord was left, Merrett's children became interesting pawns as well.

27 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

What might get a bit more interesting are the claims of Gatehouse Ami and Fat Walda, if it comes down to Merrett's line. The Lannisters would have a profound interest in House Lannister of Darry claiming the Twins - but with Lancel going all opus dei I'm not sure exactly how they press that claim. Technically the unborn child of Roose Bolton and Fat Walda, if male, would slot in one spot behind Little Walder in the line of succession; while that would involve passing through a female line (which we've discounted), if the Boltons were to maintain and consolidate power, they might be inclined to exert their influence, through war if necessary, to make a Bolton the Lord of the Crossing. Wouldn't that be something.

I think that Roose Bolton wouldn't mind ditching Ramsay to have a trueborn son for the Dreadfort again. I think his talk about how he's too old for it really just sounds too much naysaying, just like Dustin to Theon. But Ramsey wouldn't want Walda to have a son. I just don't believe Ramsay will still be alive when Fat Walda gives birth. And yes, I can see BW make sure that Fat Walda won't have a son that survives for long.

For me Ramsay's already dead in the crypts at the time of the PL writing. A ruse will be used to take Dreadfort and lure Roose out of WF to get his home back, leaving only a garisson at WF with Fat Walda and Big Walder, who then fall in the hands of Stannis's army.

I don't think Ami will fair all that well either.

Lost Melnibonean · January 10, 2017

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

@Lost Melnibonean

Based on the large amount of sons, brothers, uncles, etc who are vying for power it's unlikely that the women, let alone daughters, or children of Frey daughters married to one of the bannermen of House Frey (Haigh, Goodbrook and Paige) will get a chance at being Lady of the Crossing. There's no way imo that Lame Lothar or Black Walder are going to let a niece or a half sister stand in their way. That's why we completely ignored them. They're going to be killed or married with. It's been part of Black Walder's strategy to devalue these girls by bedding them or the wives of his half uncles and half brothers. It throws a taint on the children, so they won't get any military backing.

I don't know how the George is going to write it, but I would think that unless the heir is clear, strong, and reasonably close to the Twins (or has a strong backer at the Twins) when Walder dies, House Frey will be consumed by civil war. And no matter who succeeds, I would expect at least some purging.

sweetsunray · January 10, 2017

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I don't know how the George is going to write it, but I would think that unless the heir is clear, strong, and reasonably close to the Twins (or has a strong backer at the Twins) when Walder dies, House Frey will be consumed by civil war. And no matter who succeeds, I would expect at least some purging.

Which was discussed and mentioned in the abbreviated list..We do have some precedent to leave out the daughters, because certainly the Walders themselves and other male Freys do not include them when they talk who's next in line somehere in the middle of the list. The Frey sons and grandsons hardly tolerate each other and civil war between them is already expected. And pragmatically, I don't think it's realistic to expect them to tolerate an in-law or a son of a Frey daughter with no Frey name, neither prior nor during Frey civil war. They would need overpowering military backing for that. Only way a Frey (grand)daughter ahead in the line stands a chance imho is if she weds an uncle or cousin with military backing.

Illyrio Mo'Parties · January 10, 2017

17 hours ago, estermonty python said:

And this year's Academy Award goes to @Illyrio Mo'Parties for his immersive and stunning portrayal of Malwyn Frey.

@Illyrio Mo'Parties did we just become best friends? I think we did.

re: Mance, I suppose I thought that Mance was physically unable to do anything other than what Melisandre wanted - maybe I'm wrong? At any rate, he's been to Winterfell before, so why wouldn't he have done whatever it is he wanted to do back when he was there in Book 1?

Mance IS a next-level mega-genius, but I don't think he necessarily manipulated Melisandre. That's a bit beyond his powers.

1. Who the fuck's Malwyn Frey?

2. Sorry chico, there's only room for one best friend in my life

3. The exact nature of the hold Melisandre has over Mance is mysterious, but I don't think she's controlling his every move. My best understanding is that the jewel is keeping the glamour working... and somehow binding him to her. Don't know what that means, but at Winterfell the jewel is gone, so maybe the binding magic also requires proximity. Who knows? And I never thought about why he didn't do whatever he did when he ~~first~~ second visited Winterfell. Since we don't know what he's trying to do now, it's all a bit up in the air. But let's keep in mind the possibility that he never did go to Winterfell when King Robert was there. Jon doesn't actually remember seeing him, and he could just be telling a filthy lie.

4. I think it's totally possible to manipulate Melisandre, and if anybody could do it, it'd be someone like Mance. As long as you don't try and convince that (a) Stannis isn't Azor Ahai, and (b) you're smarter than her, then it'd be difficult but doable.

estermonty python · January 10, 2017

15 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Agreed. I do think that since Lame Lothar has only 4 daughters, he and his younger full blooded brothers will stick together. It wouldn't surprise me if he had anything to do with putting Big Walder up to be a ward of Catelyn at Winterfell in the first place. It was safely and far away from the Twins. And once Darry's were dying and only a child lord was left, Merrett's children became interesting pawns as well.

I think that Roose Bolton wouldn't mind ditching Ramsay to have a trueborn son for the Dreadfort again. I think his talk about how he's too old for it really just sounds too much naysaying, just like Dustin to Theon. But Ramsey wouldn't want Walda to have a son. I just don't believe Ramsay will still be alive when Fat Walda gives birth. And yes, I can see BW make sure that Fat Walda won't have a son that survives for long.

For me Ramsay's already dead in the crypts at the time of the PL writing. A ruse will be used to take Dreadfort and lure Roose out of WF to get his home back, leaving only a garisson at WF with Fat Walda and Big Walder, who then fall in the hands of Stannis's army.

I don't think Ami will fair all that well either.

Actually, the more I think about it, Lame Lothar inheriting the Twins would be in keeping with GRRM's "Cripples, Bastards, and Broken Things" motif, so that would be poetic justice. Plus his Blackwood mother is a clue. At this point I seriously doubt the Blackwoods themselves or Blackwood blood is overly significant, but I do think that GRRM uses Blackwood heritage as a clue for characters destined to do powerful things.

I'm not as into making predictions as you are, @sweetsunray, but I agree with your comment that only a female Frey with significant military and political backing could make a claim. That's why Gatehouse Ami and Fat Walda intrigue me - because in theory they'd each have the backing of an army and a region. The same might be said for Sandor Frey, depending on who he marries in the Vale (plus he's a dude). I really don't think it will come to that for any of those three - they (and their armies) are all in too much danger - but it's interesting to think about.

5 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

1. Who the fuck's Malwyn Frey?

2. Sorry chico, there's only room for one best friend in my life

3. The exact nature of the hold Melisandre has over Mance is mysterious, but I don't think she's controlling his every move. My best understanding is that the jewel is keeping the glamour working... and somehow binding him to her. Don't know what that means, but at Winterfell the jewel is gone, so maybe the binding magic also requires proximity. Who knows? And I never thought about why he didn't do whatever he did when he ~~first~~ second visited Winterfell. Since we don't know what he's trying to do now, it's all a bit up in the air. But let's keep in mind the possibility that he never did go to Winterfell when King Robert was there. Jon doesn't actually remember seeing him, and he could just be telling a filthy lie.

4. I think it's totally possible to manipulate Melisandre, and if anybody could do it, it'd be someone like Mance. As long as you don't try and convince that (a) Stannis isn't Azor Ahai, and (b) you're smarter than her, then it'd be difficult but doable.

1) Malwyn Frey is the most random Frey I could think of, who also happens to be 3 spots ahead of Big Walder in the succession order.

2) That's fine. I...I was just kidding...I didn't really want to be best friends... :crying:

3) I never considered the possibility that Mance was just straight-up lying to Jon's face about being in Winterfell. Why would he do that? If I'm playing along with your theory though, it's possible Mance just wanted to snoop around to gather intel for the latest trip.

4) I dunno, man. Melisandre is old as hell, it seems like she's seen a lot of shit and can't be played by anyone but the flames.

talvikorppi · January 10, 2017

9 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

<snip>

And I never thought about why he [Mance] didn't do whatever he did [in the crypts] when he ~~first~~ second visited Winterfell. Since we don't know what he's trying to do now, it's all a bit up in the air. But let's keep in mind the possibility that he never did go to Winterfell when King Robert was there. Jon doesn't actually remember seeing him, and he could just be telling a filthy lie.

The first explanation that springs to mind is that during his first visit (with LC Qorgyle when Robb and Jon were kids) or (alleged) second visit (when King Robert visited WF), he didn't know to look for anything special.

It's something like two years since King Robert visited WF. Mance could've found out something in the meantime, something that sparks his interest in the WF crypts.

Just don't ask me what that something is, lol! :-D

Anyway, I want to thank all the contributors to this thread for interesting and thought-provoking posts, especially @Illyrio Mo'Parties, @estermonty python and @sweetsunray. Now I feel like I have to go and re-read all this stuff! :-D

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