Ramsay wrote the pink letter

[Curled Finger]

11 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

It's not an insult, apologies if you took it as such. I'm simply pointing out that it is very common for readers to think Stannis did not know about the Mance/Rattleshirt switch, even though it is very clear from the text that he was the one who allowed Mance to live. Both Mel and Mance make the point.

"And he owes you his very life."

"Me?" Snow sounded startled.

"Who else, my lord? Only his life's blood could pay for his crimes, your laws said, and Stannis Baratheon is not a man to go against the law...but as you said so sagely, the laws of men end at the Wall."

...

"Stannis burned the wrong man."

"No." The wildling grinned at him through a mouth of brown and broken teeth. "He burned the man he had to burn, for all the world to see. We all do what we have to do, Snow. Even kings."

So Mel says Mance owes his life to Jon, because it was Jon's sagely advice to Stannis that convinced the king to let Mance live. And Mance says Stannis burned the man he had to burn, for all the world to see, which means he burned "Mance" to satisfy the law, but actually kept him alive because Stannis knows the value of Mance.

"The only man who can bind them to your cause is Mance Rayder.”

“I know that,” Stannis said, unhappily. “I have spent hours speaking with the man.”

The Mance situation is in fact very similar to the Jon situation, from Stannis point of view, in that both men have a certain political value to Stannis. Mance can bind the Wildlings to his cause, as well as knowing much and more about the Others, while Jon can bind the North to his cause. The law was the main obstacle to Stannis doing what he wanted with Mance, as the law demanded Mance dead. But Stannis found a way around the law, with subterfuge, and thanks to Jon who told him the laws of men end at the Wall. Jon's vows are the main obstacle to Stannis getting what he wants from Jon, so why would Stannis not revert to subterfuge once more to accomplish his goals?

 

 

Thanks for both apology and supporting evidence.   I can see where someone might take these parts of text to conclude that Stannis was complicit in Mance's switch.  I'm not convinced but will give this further consideration. 

[Greywater-Watch]

@aryagonnakill#2 A good elaboration of the theory that Ramsay wrote the letter.

Personally, I do not feel (and never felt) that the "Stannis wrote the letter" theory would be completely off the table, nor that the letter was written at Castle Black or even by Mance. I think the theories have decreasing probability in the order I named them.

[three-eyed monkey]

18 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Allow me to say that I did not mean to bash you or your thread here, yours is simply the most recent Stannis wrote it thread, so naturally it is the one for me to point out.

No problem. It's all good. I welcome a good bashing to test a theory's rigour.

A lot of readers think that the Stannis theory is ridiculous, I get that. But let me outline five reasons why I don’t think Ramsay, or indeed anyone else, is the author of the letter.

1// Motive.

I have already quoted text on three separate occasions where Stannis outlines the importance of Jon to his campaign. He knows the North has no love for him but he needs the North for the battles to come. A loyal Lord of Winterfell, a son of Eddard Stark (it's no secret Stannis prefers men to women when it comes to martial matters) to win the North to his cause.

It is straight forward what Stannis wants, the question is how far will he go to get it, given that Jon repeatedly refuses him, citing his vows as the reason. By comparison, I fail to remember any set-up with the Boltons and Jon. Ramsay talks about killing Bran and Rickon again if ever they emerge from hiding, but no mention of Jon.

I accept that Jon is in position to end the fake Arya ploy, which would obviously be bad for the Boltons, but Castle Black is 600 - 700 miles away and the Boltons have agents all over the North. It makes much more sense to try and get her back before she gets to Castle Black than it does to send a raven that will arrive in Castle Black before she does, even if she and Theon manage to evade capture and make the long journey through the storm in their frail state. If the Boltons did send ravens I think the Dreadfort or Last Hearth would be far more likely destinations at this stage.

2// Opporunity to receive false information from Stannis about the result of the battle.

Once Jeyne escapes, the Boltons know that her nearest point of refuge is Stannis' camp, which they know from Maester Tybald's last raven is 3 days from them, where Stannis is snowbound and starving. It is also obvious that there are hostile forces, from a Bolton point of view, right outside the walls beating drums. The Freys and Manderlys are already preparing to ride out to attack Stannis when Jeyne escapes, and indeed their first attempt is thwarted by the pits. But it would not take long to bridge or find a way around those pits. As Stannis and Theon agree, Crowfood Umber's boys will not hold the Bolton forces for long.

"Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek."

The question is, now that Reek and his bride have escaped, will Ramsay and his men be riding out too? I think it would be entirely in character for Ramsay to join the hunt. And Theon agrees.

But if Ramsay does join the hunt, and essentially the Battle of Ice, then he is not going to be in a position to receive any false imformation from Stannis via Tybald’s ravens. Not that it would matter as he will witness the battle himself and know the outcome. So for the theory that Ramsay received false imformation from Stannis to work then Ramsay must stay in Winterfell with Roose and leave Stannis, Jeyne, and Reek to the Freys and Manderlys. Would the Boltons really leave such an important matter to the Freys? I doubt Ramsay would want to stay behind in Winterfell, and I don’t see why Roose would object to him going. Theon, who knows Ramsay well, agrees.

“Who is coming? Bolton?"

"Lord Ramsay," Theon hissed. "The son, not the father. You must not let him take him. Roose... Roose is safe within the walls of Winterfell with his fat new wife. Ramsay is coming."

So if Stannis does send false information to Winterfell using one of Tybald’s ravens,  which I believe he will do as part of his plan to gain access to the castle after the battle, then I think it is far more likely to be received by Roose, as Ramsay will not be in Winterfell.

But even if Ramsay stays behind to flay captured spearwives and torture Mance, or whatever he deems more important than getting Reek and his bride back, there are still a number of problems with his authorship of the letter.

3// The previous set –up of the character of Ramsay’s letter.

As I mentioned in my earier post, the omission of the spiky hand, blood ink, piece of skin, signatures of the northern lords, all point to a different author in my opinion. If GRRM wanted us to be clear the letter was from Ramsay, then he would have made it clear by using at least one of the devices above, which he has purposefully invested time and effort in creating.

4// The Wildling Princess.

The following quotes are from Jon in ADwD and Sam in AFfC.

“Your men call Val a princess, but to the free folk she is only a sister of their king’s dead wife.”

Val was the sister of the woman the King-beyond-the-Wall had taken for his queen. The wildling princess was what Stannis and his men were calling her.

Stannis repeatedly refers to Val as a princess and Monster as a prince. Jon tells him time and time again that Val is no princess and the babe is no prince, but to no avail. And so Stannis does it again in the letter. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. Think about it, why would Ramsay or any northern lord even consider them a prince and princess? To him they'd just be a couple of wildlings. Even Mance and the free folk do not consider them prince and princess. Only Stannis does. And what would Ramsay want with her? We know Stannis places some value on her at least, which means he has motive to include her in the letter, compared to Ramsay, who has none.

Sam reddened. King Stannis had plans for Val, he knew; she was the mortar with which he meant to seal the peace between the northmen and the free folk.

All the people mentioned in the pink letter, with the exception of Theon and Jeyne who I will get to next, are people Stannis puts a value on. The queen, Shireen, Mel, Val and Monster. Ramsay’s bride and Reek do not interest Stannis as he already has them, but they are added because they are actually who Ramsay is interested in and he does want to make the letter sound like it is coming from Ramsay after all.

5// The quote from Theon. “He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek.”

A lot of readers consider this to be such a Ramsay thing to say, but it is actually Theon speaking directly to Stannis. These lines are quoted in the letter, word for word with the exception of the obvious need to change He to I. Now I know Theon has gotten to know Ramsay well, but are we seriously meant to believe that it is so well that he can predict exactly what Ramsay will say when composing the letter at some point in the future? That is just too much of a stretch for me. Far more likely, in my oipinion, that Stannis included these lines because Theon knows Ramsay well and Theon says that is what Ramsay wants and Stannis is writing a letter which is supposedly full of Ramsay’s demands.

People might not agree with me, that is fair enough, but I don’t think the notion that it was Stannis and not Ramsay who wrote the letter is ridiculous. I welcome debate on the matter, supported by text if possible.

[three-eyed monkey]

5 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Thanks for both apology and supporting evidence.   I can see where someone might take these parts of text to conclude that Stannis was complicit in Mance's switch.  I'm not convinced but will give this further consideration. 

Ask if Mel would save Mance without Stannis knowledge, and what motive she would have to do so?

And take a look at the burning.

The wildling king recoiled from the sight. "No," he cried, "mercy. This is not right, I'm not the king, they-"

Ser Godry gave a pull on the rope. The King-Beyond-the-Wall had no choice but to stumble after him, the rope choking off his words.

Ser Godry Farring, called Giantslayer, is sworn to Stannis. He pulls the rope just in time to cut off the end of Rattleshirt’s sentence. Is this merely a coincidence or did Ser Godry know exacly what he was doing? Even Rattleshirt says "they-" before he is cut off, which means Mel was not acting alone and even if she did decide to defy Stannis' wish to burn Mance, are we to expect she convinced Ser Godry to conspire with her against his king?

But if Stannis was the one who spared Mance, everything Mel and Mance said to Jon, and Rattleshirt's "they-", and Ser Godry's well-timed pull on the rope, all make sense.

[rotting sea cow]

On 1/8/2017 at 0:46 AM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

When I commented on the Stannis wrote the letter thread, I was specifically asked to make this thread by the OP, and my future comments were not responded to, so I did.

My apologies if I sounded rude. It wasn't my intention.

You wrote a good argument regarding Ramsay being the author and I'm with you here. Unless we are forced to imagine wild turns of the events it's difficult to imagine Mance or Stannis writing the Pink Letter. Let alone other more esoteric options (Asha, Fat Walda, Manderly, Big Walder, etc)

There are still some problems

- Lack of scrap of skin. I find this argument very strong in such strong worded letter. Ramsay would have included.  Same with blood writing.

- Some language mismatch. E.g. whore, black crows, cut out your hearth, all the north to see, etc. There is indeed some mixed language.

- He doesn't know that Selyse is at Castle Black (granted it's a weaker argument as he may know she's at Eastwatch or someone informed him)

So, my take is that the letter was different but contained similar information and the letter was not only opened but was written anew at CB.

[rotting sea cow]

20 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Thanks for both apology and supporting evidence.   I can see where someone might take these parts of text to conclude that Stannis was complicit in Mance's switch.  I'm not convinced but will give this further consideration. 

Would have Stannis invited Rattleshirt to his War Council? FFS? It was a WTF moment during my first reading, even if I missed many things during the first read (singer stew?)  I didn't know about the glamour of course until later. This was the explanation.

I also frowned at seeing Val standing meekly besides Stannis during the burning and Rattleshirt effortlessly beating Jon in sword practice. Uh?

Val of course knows that Mance was not burned as well as many wildings by now. Tormund is feigning surprise and changes quickly the topic when he ask about Mance being alive as stated by the Pink Letter.

[three-eyed monkey]

On 1/7/2017 at 7:24 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Ok, lets look past that for a second and get to the real concrete reason why this doesn't make sense, the theory as it is put forth momentarily acknowledges that Stannis does not know about Tormund and his wildlings, and I am not sure if it acknowledges that Stannis should know the Thenns have been dispatched to Karhold so he should not think Jon has any wildling warriors with him.  It then ignores the fact it just acknowledged to say that Stannis knew the letter would provoke Jon to leave the watch, and since that's what he did it ends there.  What is being missed is that Jon only reacted the way he did because of the thousand or so willing warriors he had at his disposal.  If it were just Jon and the NW and old/young/wounded willings who could not fight, Jon would have had to literally ride to WF by himself.  What in gods name would he think he was accomplishing in this scenario?  Jon only acted the way he did after an hour long talk with Tormund where Tormund clearly had Jons back.  In other words Stannis would have no way of predicting that Jon would react that way, because with the information Stannis has Jon could not have possibly acted that way.

Every motive I have ever seen put forth for Stannis unravels in the same fashion, when you look a little deeper there really is no motive.

 

I have said in the Stannis thread that Jon had 3 general options when he received the letter. 1/ do what the letter says and answer the demands outlined. 2// to defy the letter by whatever ways and means were available, or  3// do nothing, meaning stay in Castle Black and see how it plays out.

@aryagonnakill#2 made a good point in the OP when he said the only reason Jon reacted the way he did, and chose option 2, was because he had the wildling army to support him, something the author of the letter would not know about and therefore could not factor into the equation. I accept this point as a fair and valid criticism of the Stannis theory, and it is something that has forced me to re-assess the expectations of the letter's author.

The letter informs Jon that Stannis has lost. It then implicates Jon in the Mance affair and the stealing of Ramsay's bride. It next invites Jon to come and get Mance if Jon wants him. Then it makes a list of demands for a number of people. And finally, it tells Jon that if he does not comply, then Ramsay will come for him. Of course all this is written in an antagonistic fashion with use of the term bastard etc.

So what could the author, regardless of who that is for the moment, expect from Jon, leaving the wildling army aside? Well, I think the author of the letter answers that himself.

By telling Jon that Stannis has been defeated and then implicating Jon in the Mance affair, the author of the letter is really forcing Jon to act, and therefore not choose option 3, which is do nothing.

By inviting Jon to come get Mance if he wants him back, the author of the letter is inviting Jon to take option 2, which was come to Winterfell, by whatever means and with whomever he can muster as support, and try get Mance back.

By making a list of demands and threatening Jon if those demands are not met, the author of the letter is telling Jon to choose option 1.

So it seems to me that the author of the letter would be hoping for either of options 1 or 2, both of which suit Stannis. Unintended consequences aside, Stannis has a good chance of getting what he wants from the letter even without any knowledge of the willing army.

[Amris]

On 8.1.2017 at 8:02 AM, Aegon VII said:

[snip]

4)   Jon is now coming to WF with an army of wildlings to kill Ramsay, it’s hard to view this as a positive result for Ramsay if he was the author.

[snip]

 

 

 

It is a VERY positive result for Ramsay. If Jon attacks Winterfell then Ramsay can kill him without negative publicity!

- Ramsay needs to get rid of Jon because as long as a son of Ned lives the Bolton rule over the North isn't secure.

- attacking Jon at the Wall would be suboptimal for Ramsay because the other northern houses and the population would likely take a dim view on an attack on the Nights Watch.

Plus if Ramsay marched to the Wall to get at Jon he ALSO would have to fight Jon's army, so nothing gained compared to goading Jon into an attack on Winterfell. On the contrary: In Winterfell Ramsay has the castle walls as an advantage. So he has every incentive to manipulate Jon into marching south. In addition to that the Boltons have the numbers on Jon's Wildlings plus better training.

And the letter offers the additional benefit for Ramsay that if he can get Jon to attack Winterfell Jon is outed as an oathbreaker. Or even gets taken out by his own man - best case. Which even happened.

[Curled Finger]

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Would have Stannis invited Rattleshirt to his War Council? FFS? It was a WTF moment during my first reading, even if I missed many things during the first read (singer stew?)  I didn't know about the glamour of course until later. This was the explanation.

I also frowned at seeing Val standing meekly besides Stannis during the burning and Rattleshirt effortlessly beating Jon in sword practice. Uh?

Val of course knows that Mance was not burned as well as many wildings by now. Tormund is feigning surprise and changes quickly the topic when he ask about Mance being alive as stated by the Pink Letter.

FFS?  Sorry I don't understand this abbreviation.  Help me out?   I understand the rest of your argument.   It still assumes everyone was in on the switch.   Stannis commanded everyone to witness the burning as it was to be an example of the Kings Justice.   All we really have is our assumptions.   Though I do appreciate your ideas, I remain Team Ramsay in this matter.   

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Amris said:

It is a VERY positive result for Ramsay. If Jon attacks Winterfell then Ramsay can kill him without negative publicity!

- Ramsay needs to get rid of Jon because as long as a son of Ned lives the Bolton rule over the North isn't secure.

- attacking Jon at the Wall would be suboptimal for Ramsay because the other northern houses and the population would likely take a dim view on an attack on the Nights Watch.

Plus if Ramsay marched to the Wall to get at Jon he ALSO would have to fight Jon's army, so nothing gained compared to goading Jon into an attack on Winterfell. On the contrary: In Winterfell Ramsay has the castle walls as an advantage. So he has every incentive to manipulate Jon into marching south. In addition to that the Boltons have the numbers on Jon's Wildlings plus better training.

And the letter offers the additional benefit for Ramsay that if he can get Jon to attack Winterfell Jon is outed as an oathbreaker. Or even gets taken out by his own man - best case. Which even happened.

Just want to point out that while you agree with Ramsay as the author, you fundamentally disagree with the OP, who states:

What is being missed is that Jon only reacted the way he did because of the thousand or so willing warriors he had at his disposal.  If it were just Jon and the NW and old/young/wounded willings who could not fight, Jon would have had to literally ride to WF by himself.  What in gods name would he think he was accomplishing in this scenario?  Jon only acted the way he did after an hour long talk with Tormund where Tormund clearly had Jons back.

Also, you state that the Boltons need to get rid of Jon because as long as he lives their rule over the North remains insecure. You could be right but even if logic dictates that the Boltons should consider Jon's perceived lineage to pose some level of risk to their position, unless they think that a combination of Jon's status as a bastard and his Night's Watch vows are enough to remove or at least reduce the risk. But there is nothing in the text that even hints at the Boltons considering Jon to be a threat, and so from a literary point of view this motive lacks sufficient set-up.

[rotting sea cow]

26 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

FFS?  Sorry I don't understand this abbreviation.  Help me out?  

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=FFS

26 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

I understand the rest of your argument.   It still assumes everyone was in on the switch.   Stannis commanded everyone to witness the burning as it was to be an example of the Kings Justice.   All we really have is our assumptions.   Though I do appreciate your ideas, I remain Team Ramsay in this matter.   

The switch has nothing to do with the author of the PL. It allowed Stannis to save face by burning the 'man he has to burn, for all the world to see'. Very few were in the loop. Stannis, Melisandre, Val and indeed Ser Godry.  What plans had Stannis for Mance, hard to say, but the infiltration of Winterfell was probably among these notions.

Val is then sent by Jon to find Tormund and he comes. Did Val tell Tormund about Mance? Maybe yes, maybe not. But Tormund's reaction to Mance being alive looks like feigned surprise.

[aryagonnakill#2]

On January 8, 2017 at 2:02 AM, Aegon VII said:

I'm really happy to see this and the thread in support of Stannis. After our comments on the "how do some people still believe.." thread I started putting together a more comprehensive argument for Mance writing the PL. I'm about halfway done so I'll be posting a thread very similar to this here in the next few days, I just hope someone doesn't beat me to it! I'll point out a few things here.

 What are your thoughts on Mance colluding with Mors Umber? I think it's about 95% likely. For anyone who disagrees, I would suggest first revisiting the chapter in which Stannis gives Rattleshirt to Jon and then allows him to stay in the war council. Mance, as RS, hears everything he needs to to know that Mors is willing to negotiate and hates wildings because they stole his daughter. Later, Mance requests six young spearwives from molestown for a certain ploy he has in mind. The girls he gets are not young so obviously he was lying about what this ploy was. One of them is Rowan, Mors Umber's Daughter. Why else would she hold stark words sacred, accuse Theon of kinslaying, address stannis in westerosi fashion rather than wilding, etc. If you have a competing theory for Rowan that fits as well I would love to hear it. I think this is enough to convince me Mance is working with the Umbers. The coordinated horn blowing outside WF is only further proof.

I think you thoroughly underestimate Mance.

I've come across these theories as well. I'd hate for a good theory to get bogged down in details though. We don't have enough info to know what happened to Mance immediately following the escape and I don't think the text supports one theory any more than the other. The fact that the spearwife says Mance can fend for himself suggests that maybe they know something we don't.

GRRM gives us enough clues to show that Val and Mance could easily have still been speaking when Mance was rattleshirt at the wall. Mance might not have known the wedding would be at WF, but he could certainly climb into her window and tell Val that he was still alive and that she should do all she could to tell the wildling leaders to come to the wall and await further instruction. He already has his ploy in mind at this point, so he could know that he will try to make allies with the umbers and use trickery to take WF. We simply can't say Mance doesn't know the wildlings are at the wall. Fuormation from the wall to Mance than we know.rthermore by colluding with the Umbers, there could be a more free flow of inf

His duty to his family is probably the only thing that might make Jon desert the NW. He almost did it once before for this resaon and he reflects to himself about the Florent something like, who could sit by and do nothing while their brother burned, showing he clearly is still not okay with it. Even as he walks into Mels room with her where Mance is waiting as RS, the last thing he says is something like, "I can't do anything for her [Arya], as much as I.." and then he sees RS. Mance knows the best chance of Jon leaving WF, especially with an army of wildlings, comes from him being provoked by Ramsay and leaving to rescue Arya.

You're close but I do believe you've come to the exact wrong conclusion. If we have language that seems to be mutually exclusive, it doesn't mean that we are wrong about it being mutually exclusive. Instead it means that the author is pretending to be someone else and using their phrases as well. The text supports only wildings saying black crows. It's used very few times, and about a third of the time it's either by Mance or about mance. Other similar language is "for all the north to see", "red witch", "cut out his heart" and ending statements with "bastard". As far as the words that a wildling doesn't use, well he's trying to be Ramsay and is thinking of what Ramsay would say. You can say this is me picking the language to suit my argument, but based on what we know of who says what, I do believe it's the correct argument. And it does not work for Ramsay or Stannis. If Ramsay is Ramsay he has no reason to use language that he doesn't use. Ramsay would only sound like Ramsay. If it is Stannis, he would be pretending to be Ramsay, so we would expect Ramsay words as well as Stannis words. The only time we would expect wildling words mixed with Ramsays words would be a wildling pretending to be Ramsay. Mance is trying to sound like Ramsay. He's heard him say the, "I'll make a cloak of their skins", he overheard a previous letter from Ramsay in which he had put ironborn on posts which is very similar to heads on walls. And he easily could have actually overheard him say "I want my bride back" "I want my Reek" after he learned they were gone. Et cetera.

1)   No seal, only a smear of wax, no skin, no evidence it’s written in blood

2)   Threats in letter do not match his MO, e.g. heads on spikes

3)   Language used in the letter is not consistent to any one person, suggesting whomever wrote it was intentionally trying to sound like Ramsay

4)   Jon is now coming to WF with an army of wildlings to kill Ramsay, it’s hard to view this as a positive result for Ramsay if he was the author.

5)   The entire letter eloquently parallels Stannis’s burning of Mance at the wall. Ramsay has no reason to know all this or to write a letter that mirrors it.

 

These are some of the main points why I support Mance over Ramsay, let me know what you think.

 

 

 

Replies to the bolded in order.

1. The horn blowing is not coordinated to anything.  If Mance knew what was happening outside he would never have bothered with the killings.  When they hear the horn blowing they feel they have the solution to their problem, how to avoid being re-captured once they get out of WF.  Escaping was never the issue, but when the Boltons will just come after you with horses you cannot outrun, getting outside the walls is not enough.  Once they hear the horns they think Stannis has arrived and so they plan on moving ahead with the escape.  Mance would have no reason to lie to Theon about working with Mors, in fact since Theon is so hesitant it would have benefitted Mance to tell Theon he was working with Mors.  Instead Mance says that it is Stannis blowing his horns outside.

2.  As I wrote it seems to me lots of people are overestimating him.  I think the fact that you just wrote that with no support is evidence of that.  His situation is rather hopeless. The spearwives say he can handle himself, thinking he will have more time to hide/get out, but since they are discovered early due to Jeynes scream he did not have that time.

3.  The problem with all Stannis and Mance theories is stuff like this, it is baseless speculation, I don't really have a reply.

4. I addressed those details

5.  No he's not, he's dead, and that can easily be viewed as positive to the Boltons.

[Curled Finger]

13 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=FFS

The switch has nothing to do with the author of the PL. It allowed Stannis to save face by burning the 'man he has to burn, for all the world to see'. Very few were in the loop. Stannis, Melisandre, Val and indeed Ser Godry.  What plans had Stannis for Mance, hard to say, but the infiltration of Winterfell was probably among these notions.

Val is then sent by Jon to find Tormund and he comes. Did Val tell Tormund about Mance? Maybe yes, maybe not. But Tormund's reaction to Mance being alive looks like feigned surprise.

Ah, thanks for the link.   Classy.  

Stannis is a difficult one to just nail down to a particular action.   For the most part I am in the camp that finds him unyielding to the point of absurd.   That's not to say I don't appreciate this trait, I just believe he is incapable of the sort of deep intrigue proposed in the argument for his authoring of the Pink Letter.   Shadow Babies and Davos' absence naturally come to mind so I will have to give this further consideration. I'm also in the camp that believes Mel has her own agenda.  It is not that she isn't loyal to Stannis, it is that she most definitely is loyal to R'hllor.   Mel absolutely does exactly what she wants.  I've read all I can regarding The Pink Letter and decided long ago that it was in fact Ramsay who wrote it to Jon.   No small part of this determination lies in the act of writing and sending personal letters.   Ramsay is the guy who takes the time to send his thoughtful and very personal regards.  I don't believe I have any instance of Mance writing or sending greetings and certainly no one on one correspondence from Stannis to anyone.  I've got Davos sending letters on behalf of Stannis and mass mailings to various lords imploring their support of Stannis' cause, but no direct correspondence from Stannis to anyone.  My reasons are very simple and satisfy my questioning.  It's obvious you believe Stannis wrote the Pink Letter and will not be disuaded.   More power to you.  I think sometimes the answer is the simplest reason.  

[Lost Melnibonean]

31 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Replies to the bolded in order.

1. The horn blowing is not coordinated to anything.  If Mance knew what was happening outside he would never have bothered with the killings.  When they hear the horn blowing they feel they have the solution to their problem, how to avoid being re-captured once they get out of WF.  Escaping was never the issue, but when the Boltons will just come after you with horses you cannot outrun, getting outside the walls is not enough.  Once they hear the horns they think Stannis has arrived and so they plan on moving ahead with the escape.  Mance would have no reason to lie to Theon about working with Mors, in fact since Theon is so hesitant it would have benefitted Mance to tell Theon he was working with Mors.  Instead Mance says that it is Stannis blowing his horns outside.

I do think Mors Umber's arrival and warhorn were a signal to the Mance. 

[rotting sea cow]

31 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

 It's obvious you believe Stannis wrote the Pink Letter and will not be disuaded. 

No, you are reading me incorrectly. I'm actually in the Ramsay's camp, but with the letter adulterated upon arrival to the Wall, by Clydas and others. Therefore its peculiarities.

[three-eyed monkey]

41 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

certainly no one on one correspondence from Stannis to anyone.  I've got Davos sending letters on behalf of Stannis and mass mailings to various lords imploring their support of Stannis' cause, but no direct correspondence from Stannis to anyone.

But the wax was gold, not black. The seal showed a stag's head within a flaming heart. Stannis. Jon cracked the hardened wax, flattened the roll of parchment, read. A maester's hand, but the king's words.

Stannis wrote to Jon from Deepwood Motte. Written in a master's hand, but the king's words nonetheless. I propose that the pink letter is the same, written in Maester Tybald's hand but Stannis' words. Compare the bolded with the similar line in the passage above, when Jon received a letter from Stannis, and look what sentence is excluded on the pink letter version.

Bastard, was the only word written outside the scroll. No Lord Snow or Jon Snow or Lord Commander. Simply Bastard. And the letter was sealed with a smear of hard pink wax. "You were right to come at once," Jon said. You were right to be afraid. He cracked the seal, flattened the parchment, and read.

[Curled Finger]

Just now, three-eyed monkey said:

But the wax was gold, not black. The seal showed a stag's head within a flaming heart. Stannis. Jon cracked the hardened wax, flattened the roll of parchment, read. A maester's hand, but the king's words.

Stannis wrote to Jon from Deepwood Motte. Written in a master's hand, but the king's words nonetheless. I propose that the pink letter is the same, written in Maester Tybald's hand but Stannis' words. Compare the bolded with the passage above.

Bastard, was the only word written outside the scroll. No Lord Snow or Jon Snow or Lord Commander. Simply Bastard. And the letter was sealed with a smear of hard pink wax. "You were right to come at once," Jon said. You were right to be afraid. He cracked the seal, flattened the parchment, and read.

That's good, but Stannis didn't actually write it.   "A maester's hand, but the king's words."  

Yes I suppose a maester could have written the Pink Letter.   I think not.  My problem with this is the informality of the text of the letter.   Wouldn't a maester take the time to correct the grammar?  Would a maester actually send correspondence to "Bastard" instead of Jon's formal title?   However, if it was a maester who wrote the Pink Letter, it sure puts a spin on Lady Dustin's opinion of them doesn't it?  

[Wrl6199]

Just now, Curled Finger said:

That's good, but Stannis didn't actually write it.   "A maester's hand, but the king's words."  

Yes I suppose a maester could have written the Pink Letter.   I think not.  My problem with this is the informality of the text of the letter.   Wouldn't a maester take the time to correct the grammar?  Would a maester actually send correspondence to "Bastard" instead of Jon's formal title?   However, if it was a maester who wrote the Pink Letter, it sure puts a spin on Lady Dustin's opinion of them doesn't it?  

To be fare though we dint actually know that stannis didnt right it. I dint even remember if there was a maester with stannis when he went south.

[three-eyed monkey]

1 minute ago, Curled Finger said:

That's good, but Stannis didn't actually write it.   "A maester's hand, but the king's words."  

Yes I suppose a maester could have written the Pink Letter.   I think not.  My problem with this is the informality of the text of the letter.   Wouldn't a maester take the time to correct the grammar?  Would a maester actually send correspondence to "Bastard" instead of Jon's formal title?   However, if it was a maester who wrote the Pink Letter, it sure puts a spin on Lady Dustin's opinion of them doesn't it?  

Don't misunderstand me, Tybald held the pen and did the writing but he wrote what Stannis told him to write.

[three-eyed monkey]

1 minute ago, Wrl6199 said:

To be fare though we dint actually know that stannis didnt right it. I dint even remember if there was a maester with stannis when he went south.

Tybald is the Dreadfort maester who came with the Karstarks, supposedly to tend to their wounded, and is currently Stannis' prisoner as Stannis has worked out that Tybald is sending Roose information about his position.