Ramsay wrote the pink letter

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Before I say anything else, I don't think Theon is dying just yet. With that out of the way, I could totally see Stannis beheading Theon in front of the heart tree. Remember, Stannis is not a religious man, and he knows the clans are making a huge difference in his favour, now that he's got them. So, if he were to decide to execute Theon, I can see him choosing the heart tree instead of burning Theon alive, especially after what Asha tells him in TWoW Theon I. 

You are correct, of course. 

[Jadakiss]

OP still has not answered about even 1 common trait of Ramsays that is in that letter. None of his speech patterns, no similar traits compared to his last letter. grrm tried to make it easy with what he had Tormund say

Pink letter was meant just for him too shock people. Almost like Jon Snow dying. But he packed it with clues where anyone who semi is into the series will be able to tell the actual truth behind it.

Meant to shock the people that are too slow to see it when they do finally figure it out in the next book

[Makk]

8 minutes ago, Jadakiss said:

OP still has not answered about even 1 common trait of Ramsays that is in that letter. None of his speech patterns, no similar traits compared to his last letter. grrm tried to make it easy with what he had Tormund say

Pink letter was meant just for him too shock people. Almost like Jon Snow dying. But he packed it with clues where anyone who semi is into the series will be able to tell the actual truth behind it.

Meant to shock the people that are too slow to see it when they do finally figure it out in the next book

Although quite a few people have said this, I find this argument quite weak. The absence of evidence is not evidence. We have actually seen very little of Ramsay's speech and mannerisms to draw such a conclusion, and none at all where he is angry, has no control of the situation, and is allowed to fully vent. The only time we really see him angry is when he is in the presence of his father, and at that time he has to hold his tongue.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Jadakiss said:

OP still has not answered about even 1 common trait of Ramsays that is in that letter. None of his speech patterns, no similar traits compared to his last letter. grrm tried to make it easy with what he had Tormund say

Pink letter was meant just for him too shock people. Almost like Jon Snow dying. But he packed it with clues where anyone who semi is into the series will be able to tell the actual truth behind it.

Meant to shock the people that are too slow to see it when they do finally figure it out in the next book

Dude, I am so going to flip, not being even semi into the series and all. Or is it that I am slow? 

[aryagonnakill#2]

9 hours ago, Oberyn1104 said:

It would be such a deviation between the show and the book to have Stannis win and not have a Battle of the Bastards that the letter is true. Beyond that though Stannis's forces are outnumbered and starving. He lost nearly all his horses and mounted soldiers have a great advantage over foot. I also think that the Old Gods don't take kindly to Southron invaders who cut down godswood and worship the Red God. I do think that the letter shows that Ramsay killed Roose. Roose Bolton is a cautious man and it would be unlikely that he would allow such a taunting letter to be sen.t

 

Stannis actually has the numbers.  Over 5k against some 1500-2500 Freys.  That doesn't even account for the Manderlys.

As far as deviating from the show and book

Spoiler

You can't make those comparisons anymore.  The Vale will not be showing up in the book, nor did Ramsay ever marry Sansa, nor is Brienne around to be the 1 to kill Stannis, nor is Shireen with Stannis, or Davos, or Mel, etc etc.

 

[aryagonnakill#2]

22 hours ago, Praetor Xyn said:

Assuming this is correct it still makes zero sense. Anyone with a brain knows that Jon is honorable to a fault like Ned. There's no way in hell he's going to deliver women and children to a guy famous for torturing people. To me this lends credence to the letter being written deliberately to provoke Jon into doing something stupid,

Doesn't Jon doing something stupid benefit Ramsay?  If you read through the OP I address this.  While any of the suggested characters Ramsay, Stannis, Mance could have all of the info contained in the letter, none of them are aware that there are a substantial number of wildlings at CB.  When Stannis and Mance left the wall the few wildlings that were at CB hated Jon and there were no more than 100 capable of fighting.

Without the addition of Tormunds wildlings, which again, none of the suggested authors of the letter know about, Jon has only 4 options.  Hand over the hostages, send them away to Essos, tell everyone that "arya" is Jeyne Poole, or nothing.  While I agree that Jon would not hand over the hostages, sending them off to Essos is not a bad outcome for the Boltons, as Stannis points out that no one who ever flees across the sea makes it back successfully.  He could out Jeyne Poole, but then the Boltons would out Jon for keeping Mance alive and interfearing with the realm.  While it would cause them a headache, everyone thinks Stannis is dead, the Boltons have won, they would not be topplied by this revelation, Jon however would die due to the Mance revelation.  The last option of doing nothing also favors the Boltons because if everyone returns to their castles and waits the winter out, the Boltons will just march on CB come spring and sort it out.

In short, the whole concept of making Jon do something stupid, only benefits the Boltons, so if that's what you think the letter was designed to do than I don't see why you wouldn't agree it was written by Ramsay.

[Lost Melnibonean]

42 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Stannis actually has the numbers.  Over 5k against some 1500-2500 Freys.  That doesn't even account for the Manderlys.

As far as deviating from the show and book

  Hide contents

You can't make those comparisons anymore.  The Vale will not be showing up in the book, nor did Ramsay ever marry Sansa, nor is Brienne around to be the 1 to kill Stannis, nor is Shireen with Stannis, or Davos, or Mel, etc etc.

 

Agreed with hidden part. Most readers seem to suspect that neither Stannis nor Ramsay will survive to the end game, so it's no big deal that the show

Spoiler

killed them off after having Ramsay defeat Stannis. 

 

[Makk]

I feel Ramsay's motivation is more because he is having an angry rant rather than some cunning ploy to make Jon do something foolish. He needs to recover fake Arya before the north finds out she isn't real. He is furious at having her stolen from right under him and he is furious that Theon seems to have broken his hold. Although he thinks Stannis is defeated, he is not in control, which is something he always feels he needs to be in. He is trying to assert his alpha-maleness.

 

Edit : Oh and the show should pretty much be ignored in terms of arguments about what will happen imo. While some events in the show that we haven't read will no doubt actually happen, much and more from this point on will be complete D&D with no bearing on the books at all. It had already diverged significantly when it was actually based on written books, now it is based on unwritten work it will diverge even more.

[Oberyn1104]

1 hour ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Stannis actually has the numbers.  Over 5k against some 1500-2500 Freys.  That doesn't even account for the Manderlys.

As far as deviating from the show and book

  Hide contents

You can't make those comparisons anymore.  The Vale will not be showing up in the book, nor did Ramsay ever marry Sansa, nor is Brienne around to be the 1 to kill Stannis, nor is Shireen with Stannis, or Davos, or Mel, etc etc.

 

Look at the wiki of fire and ice and its 7750 Bolton forces vs 5550 Baratheon. Not to mention that the Vanguard of over 3000 is horseback which is a major advantage against the foot soldiers of Stannis. As for the show comparisons, George RR is still an executive producer and has outlined in Detail the events of the series to D&D. Do you honestly think that in the books that Stannis is going to take Winterfell and what, Jon is going to be motivated to march South and take it from him. Im sorry you can't accept the truth but Stannis is dead and the Bastard letter is real. As far as Briene, her killing Stannis is a minor point that doesn't advance the plot at all. George RR has said in interview that Shireen is going to be sacrificed in the books. With Davos and the vale, none of this has happened so you can't tell me that the book won't be showing up. Davos is last heading towards Skagos to find Rickon. A lot can happen in WofW

[Oberyn1104]

Do you discount the major details of the show i.e. Battle of Bastards?

[Stubby]

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[Lost Melnibonean]

From Reek I, Dance 12

Quote

If I had a tail, the Bastard would have cut it off. The thought came unbidden, a vile thought, dangerous. His lordship was not a bastard anymore. Bolton, not Snow. The boy king on the Iron Throne had made Lord Ramsay legitimate, giving him the right to use his lord father's name. Calling him Snow reminded him of his bastardy and sent him into a black rage.

(Emphasis in the original.)

Reek hates to be reminded of his bastardness. Presumably, then, he assumes that calling Jon Snow "bastard" will provoke Jon into a black rage. And if it doesn't, I a m sure a man like Ramsay would take it as a sign of weakness. 

[Jadakiss]

@Shard_blaxe

 

Exactly. thank you.

There is no way that ramsay would figure out exactly who Mance is and who his spear wives are. Lets say for some reason he did capture all of them. And he decides to torture for information. How would he know when he gets to the truth? They could make up any story, like they are sell swords, work for stannis etc

He has no way at all of knowing for sure who they are. They could tell any BS story and he has no way of knowing the truth. The last thing they would do would be to give up their actual identities like that

[Amris]

5 hours ago, Jadakiss said:

@Shard_blaxe

 

Exactly. thank you.

There is no way that ramsay would figure out exactly who Mance is and who his spear wives are. Lets say for some reason he did capture all of them. And he decides to torture for information. How would he know when he gets to the truth? They could make up any story, like they are sell swords, work for stannis etc

He has no way at all of knowing for sure who they are. They could tell any BS story and he has no way of knowing the truth. The last thing they would do would be to give up their actual identities like that

?

If he caught several he can interrogate them separately and cross-check their stories. Then skin until the stories match. As GRRM showed us through Theon no one has any secrets when getting skinned.

[Jadakiss]

On 2/16/2017 at 7:36 AM, Amris said:

?

If he caught several he can interrogate them separately and cross-check their stories. Then skin until the stories match. As GRRM showed us through Theon no one has any secrets when getting skinned.

 

You dont think its odd that he didnt send anything as proof? No skin, no body parts, not even written in blood, not even an official house seal....

 

And they could most likely already agree upon the same story for worst case scenario. He has no way of getting to the truth. Pretty certain that they planned for every single thing and were prepared for them getting caught and what story to say. They would never confess to whom they really are and Ramsay would have no way of knowing.

 

Back to the letter the whole thing is a huge example of multiple things that none match Ramsay at all

[Nevets]

10 hours ago, Jadakiss said:

You dont think its odd that he didnt send anything as proof? No skin, no body parts, not even written in blood, not even an official house seal..

Odd, yes.  Conclusive, no.  I am far more bothered by the lack of knowledge, means, or coherent motive for any of the other suspects.  I'm still at a loss as to why anybody else would write that particular letter and attach Ramsay's name to it.  And we have a very small sample of letters actually written by him in any case to use for comparison..

10 hours ago, Jadakiss said:

And they could most likely already agree upon the same story for worst case scenario. He has no way of getting to the truth. Pretty certain that they planned for every single thing and were prepared for them getting caught and what story to say. They would never confess to whom they really are and Ramsay would have no way of knowing.

I'm not convinced they thought that far ahead.  Or that a story they came up with would hold up under torture.  Remembering details of a story is always more difficult than remembering details of the truth.  In any case, the possibility is clearly there for him to have gotten the information he needed through torture of the spearwives.

[Amris]

On 17.2.2017 at 2:07 PM, Jadakiss said:

 

You dont think its odd that he didnt send anything as proof? No skin, no body parts, not even written in blood, not even an official house seal....

 

And they could most likely already agree upon the same story for worst case scenario. He has no way of getting to the truth. Pretty certain that they planned for every single thing and were prepared for them getting caught and what story to say. They would never confess to whom they really are and Ramsay would have no way of knowing.

 

Back to the letter the whole thing is a huge example of multiple things that none match Ramsay at all

 

As I told you already: If he caught several then he can interrogate them seperately and crosscheck their stories. Skin until the stories match.

Whether they have a pre-agreed on story does not matter (if they even have one). Ramsay won't believe the first thing they tell him. We know from the Theon arc how he operates. He'd skin them even if they hadn't had anything to hide at all. But they do and he knows it. They helped steal his bride. He'll be in skinning-mood no end. No way anyone will 'never confess' under these circumstances.

EDIT: After the show the spearwives gave during Jeyne's escape it is very clear their original story is fake and that there is much more to them and 'Abel' than they wanted everybody to believe. Reason enough to dig deep.

 

[Jadakiss]

On 2/15/2017 at 0:39 AM, Makk said:

Although quite a few people have said this, I find this argument quite weak. The absence of evidence is not evidence. We have actually seen very little of Ramsay's speech and mannerisms to draw such a conclusion, and none at all where he is angry, has no control of the situation, and is allowed to fully vent. The only time we really see him angry is when he is in the presence of his father, and at that time he has to hold his tongue.

there is more then enough of ramsays mannerisms throughout the books... both in actions and speech

[Jadakiss]

On 2/18/2017 at 1:52 PM, Amris said:

 

As I told you already: If he caught several then he can interrogate them seperately and crosscheck their stories. Skin until the stories match.

Whether they have a pre-agreed on story does not matter (if they even have one). Ramsay won't believe the first thing they tell him. We know from the Theon arc how he operates. He'd skin them even if they hadn't had anything to hide at all. But they do and he knows it. They helped steal his bride. He'll be in skinning-mood no end. No way anyone will 'never confess' under these circumstances.

EDIT: After the show the spearwives gave during Jeyne's escape it is very clear their original story is fake and that there is much more to them and 'Abel' than they wanted everybody to believe. Reason enough to dig deep.

 

 

and yet he didnt send any of that skin while having 7 prisoners? but sent theons when it was just him? used no house bolton seal to prove it was really him? wrote in a way that was clearly described in a total different way then his other letters? cant stress that one enough. used words and speech mannerisms he never used before?

why would he talk about reek to jon snow? he has no idea who the hell reek is

and with grrm having tormund say what he said he literally tried to make it very easy for anyone semi smart on their second reread 

[Jadakiss]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I am perfectly familiar with the problems you lay out with the letter.  While they are sufficient to raise questions about its authenticity, they are not enough, in my mind, to eliminate him as the writer.  And I have yet to see a plausible case made for any other writer.  All of the other candidates have even bigger issues related to motive, means and knowledge required than does Ramsay.

Tybald using the maesters pink ink that he has and written dictated by stannis with the help of theon all fits perfect if you look at the contents of the letter

Right in the previous chapter Theon tells stannis "he will want his reek back" and sure enough in the letter "I want my reek back" along with 50 other things