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How Tyrion Takes Casterly Rock


Fire Eater

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At first glance it would seem that Tyrion will be the last surviving Lannister of import, giving him the Rock by default. Although, if history (GRRM history) is any indication, the fact that Tyrion is such a beloved character gives me reason to believe he will meet an unexpected fate. He has tied himself to the Dragon and may be a secret Targ (haha), but what role does he have to play in the battle for the long night if he isn't one of the heads of the dragon? 

Either the political games in Westeros will continue to be a major part of this tale and he will be positioned well to take what he believes is his rightful place in Casterly Rock, or the grander narrative will swallow those jostlings for castles and titles and leave Tyrion in a place that does not need a Lannister in the Rock.

Chaos may reign and in that case, the imp will fall. It's hard to predict, but I don't see him taking back his rights. I see him (if he avoids death) finally realizing that the Wall is where he is most needed and affective.

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9 hours ago, Kaibaman said:

He will have an army, the support of the queen (Dany) and possibly even a dragon of his own. Then again with the setback they will soon face, the Lannisters may just welcome Tyrion back as their lord or will have to reluctantly give him the Rock. As of right now the Lannister barely have an army and once Tommen and Myrcella die they will lose the Iron Throne and their power will melt away. One of the few ways they can survive in the upcoming books is if whichever Targaryen wins (be it Dany, Aegon or Jon) likes Tyrion enough that if he becomes lord of Casterly Rock, their house will be safe.

Just as Winterfell accepted Theon as its lord, you mean? That's not going to happen.

Casterly Rock is a literal city in its own right. Some dwarf sneaking in through the sewers isn't going to be able to take it unless the people therein decide to declare for him - and if they wanted to do that they wouldn't have barred the gates against him in the first place.

The power of Casterly Rock and the West in general is completely independent of the power of the Iron Throne, and Tommen/Myrcella's end is not going to make anybody there a Tyrion fan. And a dragon is not going to save you from some serving wench cutting your throat in your sleep.

The chances that Daenerys actually cares about taking possession of the Rock doesn't make much sense considering that it is at the far side of Westeros. She would only march there after she has subdued all the other regions, and one really wonders whether there is time for any of that in light of the fact that the Others are also a thing. Thus it is much more likely that the Lannisters join her cause without Casterly Rock actually being conquered by her or her people.

And the idea that the Second Sons and Brown Ben Plumm will be part of the story until they have taken Westeros is, right now, a rather risky idea. Nobody seems to believe Daario and Hizdahr are going to live this long... Tyrion also struck a deal with the clansmen once, but that deal didn't survive the Battle of the Blackwater...

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CR is an impregnable fortress but it’s vacant. Tywin and Tyrion are dead, Lancel is faith militant, Tommen is king, Jamie is KG and Cersei is queen. Once dragons step inside Westeros and Danny takes her rightful place then the Westerlands lords will bend over backwards to please her. If that means hiding behind Tyrion then so be it. 


However, if either Tommen or Jamie are still alive then I can see Tyrion relinquishing his rights in a bid to keep them alive. Jamie saved Tyrion’s life + Tommen was always extremely nice to him. A Lannister will always pay his debts and if by allowing them to become wardens, it could save their lives, than Tyrion will gladly do that. After all the Western lands never liked him in the first place and Danny needs him more in KL then in CR.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Just as Winterfell accepted Theon as its lord, you mean? That's not going to happen.

Casterly Rock is a literal city in its own right. Some dwarf sneaking in through the sewers isn't going to be able to take it unless the people therein decide to declare for him - and if they wanted to do that they wouldn't have barred the gates against him in the first place.

The power of Casterly Rock and the West in general is completely independent of the power of the Iron Throne, and Tommen/Myrcella's end is not going to make anybody there a Tyrion fan. And a dragon is not going to save you from some serving wench cutting your throat in your sleep.

The chances that Daenerys actually cares about taking possession of the Rock doesn't make much sense considering that it is at the far side of Westeros. She would only march there after she has subdued all the other regions, and one really wonders whether there is time for any of that in light of the fact that the Others are also a thing. Thus it is much more likely that the Lannisters join her cause without Casterly Rock actually being conquered by her or her people.

And the idea that the Second Sons and Brown Ben Plumm will be part of the story until they have taken Westeros is, right now, a rather risky idea. Nobody seems to believe Daario and Hizdahr are going to live this long... Tyrion also struck a deal with the clansmen once, but that deal didn't survive the Battle of the Blackwater...

There's some key differences between Tyrion and Theon

a- Tyrion is a Lannister, a westerlander and he's the rightful heir to CR. Theon is an invader, a pirate and an oath breaker
b- CR is either vacant or its lead by idiots (Lancel? Cersei? Jamie?). Winterfell was lead by a Stark and it was handled by the crown to another Northerner (ie a Bolton)
c- Tyrion will be backed by the rightful queen of Westeros and dragons. Theon wasn't even backed by the iron islanders
d- The Westernlands had learnt long ago not to piss off Lannisters or an army which is backed by dragons. Tyrion will probably be the last remaining Lannister + he will be backed by dragons. 
e- The Northerners are a bit xenophobic who find it very hard to be lead by someone whose not their own. The Westernlands don't seem to mind being ruled by other kings
 

If I was Danny I'll sail to the Vale.The Vale would not only provide an easy picking (Robert Arryn will shit in his pants at the sight of dragons) which will provide the queen with a strong army + the fact that its impregnable from land makes it the ideal base for her to start building alliances. The promise of pardons to all those who bend the knee, the promise of justice and the restoration of every big house in Westeros (Tully, Stark etc) will bring Lords from all 7 kingdoms to bend the knee. A proposition of marriage between Willas and Danny + Margaery being pardoned and married to Tyrion, future warden of the Westerlands might even sway the Reach to the Targ royalist side.

Having said that the Westerlands should be one of Danny immediate targets.

a- if the Lannisters lose the Westerlands then its game over. They will end up relying on the Tyrells who would be open to any deal offered by Danny as long as a Tyrells ends up warming his butt on the iron throne.
b- the Westerlands is currently leaderless
c- its the richest region in Westeros

 

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6 minutes ago, devilish said:

There's some key differences between Tyrion and Theon

a- Tyrion is a Lannister, a westerlander and he's the rightful heir to CR. Theon is an invader, a pirate and an oath breaker.

Tyrion admitted to have killed King Joffrey, and he actually killed his own father. Do you think Robb should have a right to become the Lord of Winterfell if he had gutted Ned with his own hands?

6 minutes ago, devilish said:

b- CR is either vacant or its lead by idiots (Lancel? Cersei? Jamie?). Winterfell was lead by a Stark and it was handled by the crown to another Northerner (ie a Bolton).

You should double-check the Lannister family tree. After Tommen/Myrcella come Kevan's children, then Genna's, then the descendants of Tytos' brother Jason, most of which have grown-up children of their own. Daven Lannister is still around, and he has two grown-up sisters. The present castellan of Casterly Rock is Cersei's cousin Damion Lannister.

Casterly Rock and Lannisport seem to be in good and competent hands right now, and there is little reason to assume that this is going to change in the foreseeable future.

6 minutes ago, devilish said:

c- Tyrion will be backed by the rightful queen of Westeros and dragons. Theon wasn't even backed by the iron islanders.

That could make a difference, but again - why should we see George wasting space giving us a contrived story of Tyrion taking Casterly Rock? Are they going to stay there, then? If not, why should they go there when the Others are still out there.

6 minutes ago, devilish said:

d- The Westernlands had learnt long ago not to piss off Lannisters or an army which is backed by dragons. Tyrion will probably be the last remaining Lannister + he will be backed by dragons. 

That is very unlikely considering that there are still many Lannisters around.

6 minutes ago, devilish said:

e- The Northerners are a bit xenophobic who find it very hard to be lead by someone whose not their own. The Westernlands don't seem to mind being ruled by other kings.

The question is whether the people at Casterly Rock would want the murderer of Lord Tywin as their new lord. I doubt that this is going to happen. Not without a lot of additional butchery, resulting in making Tyrion's position even less secure than it would already be.

Theon is hated because he is effectively seen as a kinslayer and turncloak (which he isn't) because he turned against the Starks. Tyrion actually is a kinslayer and the murderer of his father, and people are not just going to forget that. Just as people aren't going to forget the Red Wedding. The Freys are universally hated now, not just by the Northmen and their fellow Riverlords.

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For the OP: there's also the paragraph about Tyrion's arrival during Joffrey's name day Tourney. The whole tourney is full of hints to events during Tommen's reign, while Joffrey and Sandor comment like the two grumpy muppets from the sideline, sort of like two ghosts commenting on what's become of Westeros. Towards the end, Tommen's riding against the straw man with the antlers shouting "Casterly Rock!", falls, but is about to try "again". That's when Tyrion appears with barbarians, and Joffrey shouts, "Who opened the gates?"

I always took this as an allusion that someone will open the gates for Tyrion's army at CR and he ends up sacking it. Of course this could work with Tyrion getting in via the sewers, to open the gates for a Dothraki army. 

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50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion admitted to have killed King Joffrey, and he actually killed his own father. Do you think Robb should have a right to become the Lord of Winterfell if he had gutted Ned with his own hands?

You should double-check the Lannister family tree. After Tommen/Myrcella come Kevan's children, then Genna's, then the descendants of Tytos' brother Jason, most of which have grown-up children of their own. Daven Lannister is still around, and he has two grown-up sisters. The present castellan of Casterly Rock is Cersei's cousin Damion Lannister.

Casterly Rock and Lannisport seem to be in good and competent hands right now, and there is little reason to assume that this is going to change in the foreseeable future.

That could make a difference, but again - why should we see George wasting space giving us a contrived story of Tyrion taking Casterly Rock? Are they going to stay there, then? If not, why should they go there when the Others are still out there.

That is very unlikely considering that there are still many Lannisters around.

The question is whether the people at Casterly Rock would want the murderer of Lord Tywin as their new lord. I doubt that this is going to happen. Not without a lot of additional butchery, resulting in making Tyrion's position even less secure than it would already be.

Theon is hated because he is effectively seen as a kinslayer and turncloak (which he isn't) because he turned against the Starks. Tyrion actually is a kinslayer and the murderer of his father, and people are not just going to forget that. Just as people aren't going to forget the Red Wedding. The Freys are universally hated now, not just by the Northmen and their fellow Riverlords.

a- Different Lords and different Lands. Tywin was ruthless who earned his Lords respect by fear and brilliant administration. If he wasn't that bright then the Lord of Tarbeck would probably strip the Westerlands from him. Ned was a decent man who was loved by his own men. Also the North is a stuck to its ancient traditions. The Westerlands love their money and admire people who increase his power by using his wits (Lann the clever, Tywin). Its like comparing Buckingham palace to Wall Street

b- So the choice will be between Tywin's son whose close to the Targ queen who has dragons and Lancel the idiot brothers or the Freys. Tough choice indeed. 

c- I can't answer to that. I have a sneeky feeling that Tyrion won't get CR. However it will be down to him (ie sacrificing the title to keep Jamie alive) rather then inability to take the damn place

d- Good luck to a Frey man or Lancel's brother to march an army against Tywin's son and his dragons. It would make a good sequel to the Reynes of Castamere.  What would they call it? The Freys of Castelry Rock?

e- None of them have Tyrion's birthright (apart from Jamie or maybe Tommen of course). We're talking about people here who were raised to be afraid of Tywin's fury + dragons. Tyrion is Tywin's son and he's got dragons. 

f- The Westerlands shaped by Tywin is a Westerlands whose scared shit of ending up at the wrong side of the Lannister's main branch's bed. They were raised listening to the Rains of Castamere and the brutal sacking of KL. By escaping KL and by killing his own father, Tyrion had shown to be a man of great cruelty and vengience that surpassed that of his own father. They also know from books what it means facing dragons on the battlefield. Why would they dare going against all that? I mean whose the alternative to him? The queen who is rumoured to have shagged her brother and killed her husband? Lancel the faith militant and his ilk? The Kingslayer? The boy who allowed his own mother to get arrested by the faith militant? The Freys who turned against the Westerlands only to cowardly backstab their own king? The only man who can actually convince the Westerlands to march against that madness is the golden child himself, ie Jamie Lannister. The rest simply don't have the needed influence to do that. 

 

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51 minutes ago, devilish said:

a- Different Lords and different Lands. Tywin was ruthless who earned his Lords respect by fear and brilliant administration. If he wasn't that bright then the Lord of Tarbeck would probably strip the Westerlands from him. Ned was a decent man who was loved by his own men. Also the North is a stuck to its ancient traditions. The Westerlands love their money and admire people who increase his power by using his wits (Lann the clever, Tywin). Its like comparing Buckingham palace to Wall Street

b- So the choice will be between Tywin's son whose close to the Targ queen who has dragons and Lancel the idiot brothers or the Freys. Tough choice indeed. 

c- I can't answer to that. I have a sneeky feeling that Tyrion won't get CR. However it will be down to him (ie sacrificing the title to keep Jamie alive) rather then inability to take the damn place

d- Good luck to a Frey man or Lancel's brother to march an army against Tywin's son and his dragons. It would make a good sequel to the Reynes of Castamere.  What would they call it? The Freys of Castelry Rock?

e- None of them have Tyrion's birthright (apart from Jamie or maybe Tommen of course). We're talking about people here who were raised to be afraid of Tywin's fury + dragons. Tyrion is Tywin's son and he's got dragons. 

f- The Westerlands shaped by Tywin is a Westerlands whose scared shit of ending up at the wrong side of the Lannister's main branch's bed. They were raised listening to the Rains of Castamere and the brutal sacking of KL. By escaping KL and by killing his own father, Tyrion had shown to be a man of great cruelty and vengience that surpassed that of his own father. They also know from books what it means facing dragons on the battlefield. Why would they dare going against all that? I mean whose the alternative to him? The queen who is rumoured to have shagged her brother and killed her husband? Lancel the faith militant and his ilk? The Kingslayer? The boy who allowed his own mother to get arrested by the faith militant? The Freys who turned against the Westerlands only to cowardly backstab their own king? The only man who can actually convince the Westerlands to march against that madness is the golden child himself, ie Jamie Lannister. The rest simply don't have the needed influence to do that. 

 

It seems there is a fixation that the lords in the westerlands  only bow to the Lannisters due to fear of  Tywin's ruthlessness.

The lannister house has been in prominence for millennia coupled with strength and astute leadership form past kings and lords  down to

Tywin.

Most of the westerlands lords have/give respect to the lannisters as a house and not individual members of the family.

As current matters stand Cersei,Jaime,Martyn,Genna,Daven,Damion,lucion,cerenna,Myrielle,joy.janei have a much better repute than tyrion in the west. and killing the lord paramount does not really help tyrion in the claims for the lordship. 

Waging war using dragons and ruling your castle/domain are completely separate things.

 

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20 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

How would men inside the Rock be able to see into the sea caves? The garrison in CR wouldn't be expecting an infiltration through the drains. Infiltration of this kind has been before throughout history many times.

It's a bit premature to suppose the layout of CR, but whether the garrison can see a dragon burrowing into the Rock is kinda moot. The tremors and excavation sounds coming from the drains would give them away, I'd think.

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56 minutes ago, ed Lannister said:

It seems there is a fixation that the lords in the westerlands  only bow to the Lannisters due to fear of  Tywin's ruthlessness.

The lannister house has been in prominence for millennia coupled with strength and astute leadership form past kings and lords  down to

Tywin.

Most of the westerlands lords have/give respect to the lannisters as a house and not individual members of the family.

As current matters stand Cersei,Jaime,Martyn,Genna,Daven,Damion,lucion,cerenna,Myrielle,joy.janei have a much better repute than tyrion in the west. and killing the lord paramount does not really help tyrion in the claims for the lordship. 

Waging war using dragons and ruling your castle/domain are completely separate things.

 

 I believe that the Westerlands pre Tywin was a bit like to a capitalist economy. They respected Lords who can protect their own while generating shitloads of money which ultimately would help everybody (trickle-down effect).  Families would spar one another not on the battlefield but through shows of wealth. Hence why when Tywin assaulted the Reynes and the Tarbecks they were caught completely by surprise. The Reynes also took refuge in the mines because it was unthinkable that a Westerland family would bring such great source of wealth crushing to the ground. Tywin wasn’t the typical Westerland.


In few years, I think that Tywin shaped a capitalist region into a dictatorship. His bannermen were just too frightened to question him again. The way he handled Tysha, Robb Stark and the royal family + the rise of the Cleganes served as constant reminders of how powerful and cruel he could be.

If Tyrion ends up becoming the only living son of Tywin then rest assured that the Westerlands will just bend the knee to him especially if he comes at the back of an army + dragons. That’s how they were programmed to act. 
 

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5 hours ago, devilish said:

 I believe that the Westerlands pre Tywin was a bit like to a capitalist economy. They respected Lords who can protect their own while generating shitloads of money which ultimately would help everybody (trickle-down effect).  Families would spar one another not on the battlefield but through shows of wealth. Hence why when Tywin assaulted the Reynes and the Tarbecks they were caught completely by surprise. The Reynes also took refuge in the mines because it was unthinkable that a Westerland family would bring such great source of wealth crushing to the ground. Tywin wasn’t the typical Westerland.


In few years, I think that Tywin shaped a capitalist region into a dictatorship. His bannermen were just too frightened to question him again. The way he handled Tysha, Robb Stark and the royal family + the rise of the Cleganes served as constant reminders of how powerful and cruel he could be.

If Tyrion ends up becoming the only living son of Tywin then rest assured that the Westerlands will just bend the knee to him especially if he comes at the back of an army + dragons. That’s how they were programmed to act. 
 

it was under the leadership of tywin's father Tytos that defiance,truculency and lords being belligerent was rampant in westerlands and it was not necessarily directly to Tywin but rather to House Lannister as a whole as a challenge to their rule due to weakness  of tytos leadership.

The Same lord Reyne and Tarbeck did not have the guts to pull most of what they did during their defiance when Tywin's Grandfather Gerold reigned. Like Cat pointed to Robb only Strength is what keeps certain Houses across westeros in their place in the pecking order and the fealty offered to the leading houses for the most part is not given out of the love but due to the houses being militarily subdued.

Tywin's line comes from a branch that was not earmarked to inherit the rule of the west and it could also be that that mantle could perhaps fall to the numerous able cousins the lannister house still has.

I  am of the opinion Tyrion is already estranged to his immediate family and will find solace perhaps in serving Danny/Aegon in  some capacity in the small council if they manage to get their way.

 

 

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14 hours ago, Victarion Chainbreaker said:

It's a bit premature to suppose the layout of CR, but whether the garrison can see a dragon burrowing into the Rock is kinda moot. The tremors and excavation sounds coming from the drains would give them away, I'd think.

"It would please me to show you the Golden Gallery and the Lion's Mouth, and the Hall of Heroes where Jaime and I played as boys. You can hear thunder from below where the sea comes in . . ."

The waves would provide plenty of noise. Even disregarding that, when Viserion was tunneling into the walls, the only one who mentioned to have heard anything was Missandei, and she described it as a "scratching." CR is three times higher than the Great Pyramid so noise would be pretty minimal. Any guard who heard it would likely have it dismissed as nothing. Tyrion would also likely pick the safest drain far from the side of CR facing land where the garrison's attention would be focused.

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Why do so many people think Tyrion's claim to Casterly Rock is a slam dunk? We should consider the possibility that any of the rest of the Lannister clan could rise up and claim the Rock for themselves. There are Lannisters like crazy in the Westerlands. We've read mostly about the main branch, but there are others, per GRRM's statements.

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10 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

"It would please me to show you the Golden Gallery and the Lion's Mouth, and the Hall of Heroes where Jaime and I played as boys. You can hear thunder from below where the sea comes in . . ."

The waves would provide plenty of noise. Even disregarding that, when Viserion was tunneling into the walls, the only one who mentioned to have heard anything was Missandei, and she described it as a "scratching." CR is three times higher than the Great Pyramid so noise would be pretty minimal. Any guard who heard it would likely have it dismissed as nothing. Tyrion would also likely pick the safest drain far from the side of CR facing land where the garrison's attention would be focused.

I hate being wrong.

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11 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Why do so many people think Tyrion's claim to Casterly Rock is a slam dunk? We should consider the possibility that any of the rest of the Lannister clan could rise up and claim the Rock for themselves. There are Lannisters like crazy in the Westerlands. We've read mostly about the main branch, but there are others, per GRRM's statements.

Because he will almost certainly have dragons at his back, and there are plenty of signs pointing to the Lannisters undergoing a culling at a wed wedding 2.0. Even if that cull does not happen, there is a small pool of realistic candidates who could fulfill that roll -- characters introduced and fleshed out prior to ADWD. It would be lazy and bad writing to reward a non-insignificant lordship ( and plot point he's foreshadowed/referenced heavily) to someone we didn't know I see that pool as Daven, Martyn along with the Jaime, Cersei, Tommen, and Myrcella. I don't believe the latter 3 are long for the world, Martyn will likely end up at Darry and Daven/Jaime have learned to fight smarter, not harder. 

Damion Lannister is currently castellan and in a prime candidate to seize it, but castellans have not had a particularly good track record of retaining their castles when besieged or  confronted ( Ser Rodrik - WF, Cortney Penrose - SE, Brynden Tully - RR, Farring - SE, Rolland Storm - DS). 

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On 1/7/2017 at 1:55 PM, Scootaloo Stark said:

Well done, Fire Eater. Mentioning the drains twice definitely could foreshadow this.

Btw, Storm's End supposedly can't be taken, but they will take it with a trick, sneaking in through the caves by the sea below.

Isn't this how Griff and friends will do it? I always like a nice little parallel.

But I don't think Viserion can dig through Casterly Rock that easily. It's a huge natural rock, not a man-made pyramid.

Griff and friends will come waving a banner with a stag over a blazing heart 

 

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