Plot developments / expectations for The Winds of Winter

[Lord Varys]

50 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Jhaqo cannot take Qarth, no more than any other khal before him. This is why Qarth is so interesting for the Khal of khals (see my other post above). The Dothraki despise the milkmen but cannot afford a campaign against them because the Red Waste lies in between, because the city walls are strong and the camel cavalry is also fearsome. Dany can change that, but she needs to go herself with a khalasar. She can scout on dragon back for pasture and water and break the defenders. But this will take time, not only narrative space.

I'm not sure that is the case. If you check the TWoIaF and TLaIaF (the maps) then a lot of the Qaathi cities have actually be destroyed by the Dothraki. They can cross the Red Waste if they want. As of yet that may have just not been worth the effort. Dany could demand that Jhaqo do that for her to prove her worth. After all, she crossed the Red Waste and lived so anybody wanting to follow her might have to do it, too.

50 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

A longer timeline has however some advantages. It allows the dragons to grow larger and more fearsome. It allows Massey to find the sellswords for Stannis. It allows the later to organize the North better, including intervening the NW, taking Dreadfort and Mount Calin or to Jon to mount an expedition to Hardhome. It gives more time for the fulfillment of Maggy's prophesies regarding Cersei. Etc.

Exactly. There are a lot of hints that the pieces still have to moved into position for the Second Dance and another series of conflicts surrounding Dany's eventual arrival in Westeros.

50 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

It would also mean that Aegon will need more time to take KL and possibly he will enjoy a longer reign. None of these scenarios can be excluded.

If Aegon becomes a major opponent of Dany's in the Second Dance thing he cannot just take KL he also has to win the allegiance of many lords and people. His hold over Westeros cannot just be tenuous he must have a very strong position in the Crownlands, the Stormlands, the Reach, Dorne, the Vale, and the Riverlands.

Not necessarily in all those regions to the same degree but to a pretty strong degree. Some time has to pass for this to happen. Aegon cannot just have success - the news about his success must also spread, and inspire many people to join him and cheer him as the rightful king they actually would die for.

50 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Bigger issues are the governance of Meeren. Even if they get a big victory against the slavers, the politics afterwards will be complicated. It also means that after burning Oldtown, Euron will do something else, not wage war against KL, or not immediately, It means that the Wall cannot fall yet, otherwise it will risk Dany and her dragons arriving "too late". A longer timeline also introduces complications for the arcs of Jaime, Brienne, Sansa and maybe others. Because they have to do something in between.

I don't think Euron intends to burn Oldtown. 

Spoiler

He laughs about the fools he made the new Lords of the Shield Islands and has no intention to come to their aid when Willas and Garlan move their men to the islands to retake them.

The whole Reach campaign is a detour, a means to kill time. Euron waits for Victarion to bring him Daenerys and the dragons. Then he intends to move against KL. He will have to make a new plan when the news about Dany's disappearance/alleged death reaches him (just as Aegon will have - at that point the idea of Aegon saving his hand for Dany will be scrapped).

I expect Euron to crush the Redwyne fleet, and the natural next target after that - then completely helpless - will be the Arbor. That is as ripe a fruit as one could possibly hope for and actually the ideal base of operations to await Dany's arrival. She won't come, but Cersei will. And then Euron and Cersei will marry, unite their forces to take on both Aegon and Daenerys.

But we don't know how many losses Euron is going to suffer in his battle against the Redwynes. He should loose ships and men, too. The destruction of the Redwyne fleet will grant him superiority at sea but he doesn't have enough men to hold anything on the mainland. Oldtown has over 100,000 citizens and should have more thousands of City Watch men, not to mention the household knights and men-at-arms of House Hightower and their bannermen. It is very unlikely that Euron should be able to capture that city. Even if he did, he would lose more men in the process than he can afford to lose, especially if such a campaign begins after the news about Dany reach him.

I expect Brienne and/or Jaime's and Sansa's story to connect with Aegon's just as Cersei is going to gravitate in Euron's direction. The Vale has to make a move, and with Sansa being a very attractive maiden it is quite likely that they will try to make her his new queen, setting her up against Arianne. In that setting Sansa could finally come into her own as a politician. The Tarths got that weirdo Targaryen connection in TWoIaF nobody was expecting, so I could see Brienne ending on Aegon's Kingsguard or at least among his men. The same goes, to a greater degree, for Jaime who is obsessed with his guilt over letting Rhaegar down by not saving his wife and children from his father's men. If he gets the opportunity he will go to Storm's End or KL to ask for Aegon's forgiveness. That way the Lannister siblings would all end up on different sides in the grand (political) finale. Jaime with Aegon, Cersei with Euron, and Tyrion with Dany.

[rotting sea cow]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not sure that is the case. If you check the TWoIaF and TLaIaF (the maps) then a lot of the Qaathi cities have actually be destroyed by the Dothraki. They can cross the Red Waste if they want. As of yet that may have just not been worth the effort. Dany could demand that Jhaqo do that for her to prove her worth. After all, she crossed the Red Waste and lived so anybody wanting to follow her might have to do it, too.

Dany crossed the Red Waste losing a good deal of people. A bigger khalasar will lose even more and hardly will have strength to besiege the city. I'm aware of these maps and that Vaes Tolorro and other abandoned cities were raided by the Dothraki, but now the region doesn't look at all hospitable for such a campaign. Is there an explanation for that? Some climate change? Anyway, it doesn't serve thematically that Khal Jhaqo take Qarth is her behalf. That city is supposed to be a gift from her part to the Dothraki.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If Aegon becomes a major opponent of Dany's in the Second Dance thing he cannot just take KL he also has to win the allegiance of many lords and people. His hold over Westeros cannot just be tenuous he must have a very strong position in the Crownlands, the Stormlands, the Reach, Dorne, the Vale, and the Riverlands.

Sure, what I'm arguing is that among the things that can be delayed to provide a better timing for Dany arrival is Aegon conquest of KL, so instead of few weeks or few months, it can take several, but doesn't change the final outcome.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Euron intends to burn Oldtown. 

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He laughs about the fools he made the new Lords of the Shield Islands and has no intention to come to their aid when Willas and Garlan move their men to the islands to retake them.

The whole Reach campaign is a detour, a means to kill time. Euron waits for Victarion to bring him Daenerys and the dragons. Then he intends to move against KL. He will have to make a new plan when the news about Dany's disappearance/alleged death reaches him (just as Aegon will have - at that point the idea of Aegon saving his hand for Dany will be scrapped).

Here I disagree, strongly. Dany is important for his plans, but not fundamental. Otherwise he would have gone himself to Meeren, ordering Victarion to come with him.  However doing this, he would risk to lose the ironborn. They (actually their lives) are more important for him than Dany.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I expect Euron to crush the Redwyne fleet, and the natural next target after that - then completely helpless - will be the Arbor. That is as ripe a fruit as one could possibly hope for and actually the ideal base of operations to await Dany's arrival. She won't come, but Cersei will. And then Euron and Cersei will marry, unite their forces to take on both Aegon and Daenerys.

But we don't know how many losses Euron is going to suffer in his battle against the Redwynes. He should loose ships and men, too. The destruction of the Redwyne fleet will grant him superiority at sea but he doesn't have enough men to hold anything on the mainland. Oldtown has over 100,000 citizens and should have more thousands of City Watch men, not to mention the household knights and men-at-arms of House Hightower and their bannermen. It is very unlikely that Euron should be able to capture that city. Even if he did, he would lose more men in the process than he can afford to lose, especially if such a campaign begins after the news about Dany reach him.

The thing is I don't believe that Euron is interested in earthly power at all. He wants to raise above humanity and for that he will make the battle against the Redwyne fleet a massive blood sacrifice. The ironborn cannot defeat them conventionally, meaning that "something" will happen that will crush the Redwynes. That's why he needs the ironborn more than Dany (at least for now) and why he needs priests of as many religions he can get hands on.

One has just to wonder the parallels between Dany and Euron (maybe also Bran) ascension to a higher level. The former will be proclaimed as a religious and political leader of the Dothraki horde in Vaes Dothrak where the horselords have collected the gods and idols of several cultures. The later wants to force his ascension using blood sacrifice in massive scale and also using king and holy blood. Quality and quantity.  We will see "the dark and bloody tide submerging towers by the sea".

Also the Citadel must burn and all the knowledge accumulated under its walls.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I expect Brienne and/or Jaime's and Sansa's story to connect with Aegon's just as Cersei is going to gravitate in Euron's direction. The Vale has to make a move, and with Sansa being a very attractive maiden it is quite likely that they will try to make her his new queen, setting her up against Arianne. In that setting Sansa could finally come into her own as a politician. The Tarths got that weirdo Targaryen connection in TWoIaF nobody was expecting, so I could see Brienne ending on Aegon's Kingsguard or at least among his men. The same goes, to a greater degree, for Jaime who is obsessed with his guilt over letting Rhaegar down by not saving his wife and children from his father's men. If he gets the opportunity he will go to Storm's End or KL to ask for Aegon's forgiveness. That way the Lannister siblings would all end up on different sides in the grand (political) finale. Jaime with Aegon, Cersei with Euron, and Tyrion with Dany.

 

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Dany crossed the Red Waste losing a good deal of people. A bigger khalasar will lose even more and hardly will have strength to besiege the city. I'm aware of these maps and that Vaes Tolorro and other abandoned cities were raided by the Dothraki, but now the region doesn't look at all hospitable for such a campaign. Is there an explanation for that? Some climate change? Anyway, it doesn't serve thematically that Khal Jhaqo take Qarth is her behalf. That city is supposed to be a gift from her part to the Dothraki.

There is some talk that the Red Waste grew bigger over the years but that began thousands of years ago, back when the Sarnori were still a a major power. The Qaathi were driven back further down south long before the Dothraki were a thing.

Dany didn't take a proper route through the Red Waste. There are trade routes through the regions, near the Bones. If the Dothraki want to go to Qarth they can get get there.

Dany could also give the Dothraki all of Essos west of the Bones as a gift. Meaning all the Free Cities. And I think she is going to do that. Whether they go to Qarth or not, I think they will dispatch khalasars to all the cities not yet under the thumb of the horselords.

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Sure, what I'm arguing is that among the things that can be delayed to provide a better timing for Dany arrival is Aegon conquest of KL, so instead of few weeks or few months, it can take several, but doesn't change the final outcome.

It will be the same outcome, but I think there is a lot of potential for a silence for the final political storm (the Second Dance). Time for some of the private conflicts to breathe and unfold. Sort of like things calmed somewhat down in AFfC/ADwD after ASoS.

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Here I disagree, strongly. Dany is important for his plans, but not fundamental. Otherwise he would have gone himself to Meeren, ordering Victarion to come with him.  However doing this, he would risk to lose the ironborn. They (actually their lives) are more important for him than Dany.

If they were so important he wouldn't have treated the men he left on the Shields as expendable scum. Dany and her dragons are an essential part of the plan. I think he could succeed with them while he won't without them, but he would still remain the greatest threat to Westeros who most likely can only be stopped by Daenerys and her people. And even that is not necessarily certain. With his Valyrian armor he is the only guy I could see actually kill one of Dany's dragons now. That should be pretty easy with such an armor in combination with a Valyrian steel sword. Valyrian steel is impervious to dragonfire, and Blackfyre withstood even the fire of the Black Dread.

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

The thing is I don't believe that Euron is interested in earthly power at all.

I don't really buy that. What Euron has said, repeatedly - to the Ironborn, to Victarion, to Euron - that he wants Daenerys as his wife and her dragons as his weapons. And that he wants the Iron Throne of Westeros. I believe that this is exactly what he wants. There is no reason to actually believe he can become a living god or some other supernatural creature.

In fact, Aeron's dream images certainly can be interpreted in a more mundane way as Euron's desire - the Iron Throne - leading him to kill a bunch of priests to destroy the Redwyne fleet.

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

He wants to raise above humanity and for that he will make the battle against the Redwyne fleet a massive blood sacrifice. The ironborn cannot defeat them conventionally, meaning that "something" will happen that will crush the Redwynes. That's why he needs the ironborn more than Dany (at least for now) and why he needs priests of as many religions he can get hands on.

There is going to happen some magic there. But I imagine him summoning some storm which he then directs against the Redwyne fleet, losing only a fraction of the Ironborn ships in the process.

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Also the Citadel must burn and all the knowledge accumulated under its walls.

I don't see that happening, either. The first target will be the Arbor (they are going to fight the major naval battle near the Arbor so Euron will turn naturally on the island afterwards). And I don't think it is a likely target once Euron learns about Aegon and Arianne. That will make him pretty pissed, and his natural next target will be a relatively defenseless Sunspear, possibly ending in the eradication of House Martell in the male line. Doran isn't going to expect some sort of Ironborn attack on his shores.

George has introduced quite a few interesting people in Oldtown, and I think we'll see Sam, Alleras, Leo, and 'Pate' delve deeper into this Citadel conspiracy thing (with 'Pate' looking for that 'The Death of the Dragons' book Tyrion remembered in ADwD) and I think we'll also meet some Hightowers since both Lord Leyton and the Mad Maid might play some roles in the future. Not to mention the Conclave meeting soon to elect a new Grand Maester.

[Nevets]

I have little interest in reading any more about Essos than I absolutely have to.  To my mind, it is a sideshow.  The real action is in Westeros.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Daenerys has no reason to rush to Westeros. She could go there in five or ten years right now. Somebody/something has to convince her to hurry.

I have no doubt that George will find a reason for her to head to Westeros.  The story is rapidly running out of time for this to occur.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

So you think Dany will have, what, ten chapters? In light of the fact that there are so many POVs now it is more likely going to be more like 7-8. That's not going to get her to the Free Cities. Not unless George is rushing things and treating people that should be characters like extras.

I think she will have the most chapters of any character, nine or so:  3-4 to convince them, another 2 in travel, with the remainder in the Free Cities or Westeros.  The latter part will also have Tyrion to help cover it.  George can cram a lot into a chapter if he wants to.  Remember, her story in SOS had only 6 chapters, and a lot happened.

I cannot understand why there is so much talk about Qarth.  It is in the wrong direction, and so far as I know, has nothing to offer.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is building up tension. I like that.

It also has a tendency to become tedious and chew up enormous amounts of time and pages.  I don't like that.

And I still maintain that are far too many subplots and something is going to have to give.  Either they are all served, and the story slows to a crawl, or he wraps some of them up.  You may appreciate AFFC/ADWD and their sometimes glacial pace, but I would see something that moves a little faster.  And I don't think that necessarily means rushing through the story either. 

[Túrin the Turambar]

On 11.2.2017 at 2:13 AM, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion is not going to meet Dany early on in TWoW. George has already sort of confirmed that. Their stories will connect eventually.

that's true - they will not meet "early", because she will first encounter the Dothraki, and Tyrion will stay in Meereen and deal with the Ironborn and the sellsword companies. but then they will meet and he will be the one to tell her about Aegon and this will manifestly accelerate her drive toward Westeros.

14 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Sure, what I'm arguing is that among the things that can be delayed to provide a better timing for Dany arrival is Aegon conquest of KL, so instead of few weeks or few months, it can take several, but doesn't change the final outcome.

I strongly disagree here. read the Griffin Reborn chapter. JonCon does not have the time to delay. he will want to rush towards KL to sit Aegon on the IT. look at the disgust he has for the cautious nature of Harry Strickland. Aegon himself is a youth without fear - he also won't delay the course of action. same goes with Arianne. I strongly lean towards the theory of BryndenBFish in how they will take KL - and IMO this will not take more than 2-3 months after they took Storm's End.

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

I cannot understand why there is so much talk about Qarth.  It is in the wrong direction, and so far as I know, has nothing to offer.

well, some say that it is necessary for Dany to conquer all slave cities in the world in order to finish her anti-slavery campaign and to be truely satisfied. but I agree with you that this will not be the case. otherwise, she would also have to take Qohor, Norvos, Lys, Tyrosh, Myr, Gogossos, New Ghis, and go as far as Asshai. Until she truely abolished slavery in all the world, the Others would already have taken Sunspear. So I'm quite sure that this is not the story George wants to tell.

[Lord Varys]

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

I have little interest in reading any more about Essos than I absolutely have to.  To my mind, it is a sideshow.  The real action is in Westeros.

I'd agree there, but ADwD manifestly shows the intention of the author to expand this sideshow. Else Dany would have begun he journey to Westeros in that book rather than hang out in Meereen and then go into the Dothraki Sea.

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I have no doubt that George will find a reason for her to head to Westeros.  The story is rapidly running out of time for this to occur.

He could. But he won't. The story is expanding still, and he is not going to make things easy for a character. He never does, especially not in the later books. Just look what he did to Brienne in AFfC. And no, the story is not running out of time. There is no reason to believe George is going to finish this story in two books. That idea got buried by ADwD. George himself might not see or admit that, but he is obviously very wrong in estimating the amount of pages the concepts in his head need or how much time he needs to write those pages.

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I think she will have the most chapters of any character, nine or so:  3-4 to convince them, another 2 in travel, with the remainder in the Free Cities or Westeros.  The latter part will also have Tyrion to help cover it.  George can cram a lot into a chapter if he wants to.  Remember, her story in SOS had only 6 chapters, and a lot happened.

Yeah, but the journey from Dany's Dragonstone to Vaes Dothrak is going to take time. If you keep in mind how many space the chapters covering the two battles, the situation in KL and the Stormlands will take we may most likely get no more than, say, two Dany chapters in the first third (or even half) of the book. Remember, TWoW will have all the POVs of the series, more than ADwD had.

Dany can also not make a plan to unite the Dothraki before she reaches Vaes Dothrak because she must have all the pieces to come up with a plan, not just some few. That is all going to take time.

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I cannot understand why there is so much talk about Qarth.  It is in the wrong direction, and so far as I know, has nothing to offer.

It played a significant role in Dany's story and Quaithe might still be there. She might want to talk to her person again. Besides, after Dany went to Vaes Dothrak the last time she went to Qarth next. And she had to go east to go west.

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It also has a tendency to become tedious and chew up enormous amounts of time and pages.  I don't like that.

The problem with that is that we read the stories in chunks of 1,000 books coming out rather infrequently. If you read the entire story back to back nothing of that should matter all that much.

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And I still maintain that are far too many subplots and something is going to have to give.  Either they are all served, and the story slows to a crawl, or he wraps some of them up.  You may appreciate AFFC/ADWD and their sometimes glacial pace, but I would see something that moves a little faster.  And I don't think that necessarily means rushing through the story either. 

You can only cramp so much in a books of merely 1,000 pages. George has carefully introduced new Westerosi plots in ASoS and AFfC/ADwD, and those have to be served one way or another. If he had intended to rush things there would have been no Euron, Aegon, Oldtown, Dorne, Faith Militant, or the Stark children chilling somewhere.

1 hour ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

that's true - they will not meet "early", because she will first encounter the Dothraki, and Tyrion will stay in Meereen and deal with the Ironborn and the sellsword companies. but then they will meet and he will be the one to tell her about Aegon and this will manifestly accelerate her drive toward Westeros.

It could mean that. Or it could mean that Tyrion leaves Slaver's Bay on his own because he becomes a dragonrider and intends to conquer Westeros all by himself, believing Daenerys Targaryen to be dead and gone. Or something else happens.

Whether the news about Aegon will interest Dany all that much remains to be seen. He has but 10,000 men. Dany should not consider him a danger to her throne. Not while she has dragons and all the Dothraki and many other people fighting for her.

Aegon could himself set up as a king for a decade or so, and she would still have the power to topple him easily enough. Just as Aegon the Conqueror toppled all the kings of Westeros.

1 hour ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

I strongly disagree here. read the Griffin Reborn chapter. JonCon does not have the time to delay. he will want to rush towards KL to sit Aegon on the IT. look at the disgust he has for the cautious nature of Harry Strickland. Aegon himself is a youth without fear - he also won't delay the course of action. same goes with Arianne. I strongly lean towards the theory of BryndenBFish in how they will take KL - and IMO this will not take more than 2-3 months after they took Storm's End.

They certainly make haste but how much time do you think TWoW will cover. We have three Arianne chapters only covering her travels to (and first meeting with) Aegon. Then there is another Connington chapter confirmed to cover the battle of Storm's End. Other chapters will cover the battle against the Tyrell army.

Meanwhile, there will be quite some few Cersei chapters in KL covering the aftermath of Kevan's death, the trials against the queens (if they happen), and the animosity/violence/fighting between Cersei and Mace (and the Faith Militant) if things escalate there. That is going to take time, too.

And meanwhile the stories of Theon/Asha, Jaime/Brienne, Sansa, Arya, Bran, Jon, Melisandre, Davos, Areo, Aeron, Dany, Tyrion, Victarion, Barristan, Samwell will continue. Aegon most likely will take the Iron Throne in TWoW but this is not going to happen in the first half of the book. Rather in the second half or near the end.

1 hour ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

well, some say that it is necessary for Dany to conquer all slave cities in the world in order to finish her anti-slavery campaign and to be truely satisfied. but I agree with you that this will not be the case. otherwise, she would also have to take Qohor, Norvos, Lys, Tyrosh, Myr, Gogossos, New Ghis, and go as far as Asshai. Until she truely abolished slavery in all the world, the Others would already have taken Sunspear. So I'm quite sure that this is not the story George wants to tell.

She can conquer all the Free Cities aside from Braavos easily enough. Her Dothraki can burn/destroy Qohor, Norvos, Myr, and Pentos, and helping her attack Volantis from the land (while her navy takes the harbor). Lys and Tyrosh are on the way. Lorath is irrelevant and Braavos a wildcard, but the other cities can be dealt with easily enough. And we don't have to see all that happening. 

For the Dothraki it would be much easier if the bulk of them marched east to the Free Cities where they would then make the journey to Westeros rather than all of them traveling by ship to Westeros from Slaver's Bay. They don't like this whole naval voyage thing, not to mention that they would have to transport hundreds of thousands of horses.

[Túrin the Turambar]

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd agree there, but ADwD manifestly shows the intention of the author to expand this sideshow. Else Dany would have begun he journey to Westeros in that book rather than hang out in Meereen and then go into the Dothraki Sea.

at the end of ASOS Dany stated that she would stay in Meereen - we know this statement was made with the 5-years-gap in mind. and indeed GRRM planned to make her leave Meereen in her first chapter after the gap. but since the gap didn't work, Dany had to stay in Meereen on screen for some time. Nevertheless, it seems to be GRRM's intention to make Dany's story as logical as possible, but also to bring her to Westeros as soon as possible. So I don't think that she will make journeys which only distract her from this destination.

But I think we will not find a solution here - only TWOW can give us an answer on this.

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He could. But he won't. The story is expanding still, and he is not going to make things easy for a character. He never does, especially not in the later books. Just look what he did to Brienne in AFfC. And no, the story is not running out of time. There is no reason to believe George is going to finish this story in two books. That idea got buried by ADwD. George himself might not see or admit that, but he is obviously very wrong in estimating the amount of pages the concepts in his head need or how much time he needs to write those pages.

hm... I think George more than once stated that after the FeastDance he now intends to bring his characters together once more. I think the time for ever more storylines is now over and the geographical scope will now contract.

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, but the journey from Dany's Dragonstone to Vaes Dothrak is going to take time. If you keep in mind how many space the chapters covering the two battles, the situation in KL and the Stormlands will take we may most likely get no more than, say, two Dany chapters in the first third (or even half) of the book. Remember, TWoW will have all the POVs of the series, more than ADwD had.

but we don't know where Dragonstone lies exactly. it could be closer to Vaes Dothrak than we think (George often uses such uncertainties to his advantage) - and I also think that her last chapter in ADWD happens weeks before the battle of fire. so her arrival in Vaes Dothrak and the battle of fire could happen at around the same time.

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It could mean that. Or it could mean that Tyrion leaves Slaver's Bay on his own because he becomes a dragonrider and intends to conquer Westeros all by himself, believing Daenerys Targaryen to be dead and gone. Or something else happens.

Whether the news about Aegon will interest Dany all that much remains to be seen. He has but 10,000 men. Dany should not consider him a danger to her throne. Not while she has dragons and all the Dothraki and many other people fighting for her.

of course, I don't know how it will happen exactly, but I am very confident that it will be Tyrion who brings Dany the news of Aegon. He is the only one who interacted with him and it is very likely that he saw through the deception. he will turn her against Illyrio, Varys and their "perfect prince". and I am also very confident that she will want to strike against them immediately. he is the "mummer's dragon" which she has to slay ("to give the heroes something to fight").  

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon could himself set up as a king for a decade or so, and she would still have the power to topple him easily enough. Just as Aegon the Conqueror toppled all the kings of Westeros.

and here I disagree. it would be very unwise to let Aegon consolidate. meanwhile, it will give him legitimacy (which he does not have as a Blackfyre), and he can form alliances and bind the great houses to his rule. and IMO it is not at all guaranteed that Dany could win against a united Westeros. therefore, Tyrion will surely urge her to strike swiftly - and he is quite right to do so.

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

They certainly make haste but how much time do you think TWoW will cover. We have three Arianne chapters only covering her travels to (and first meeting with) Aegon. Then there is another Connington chapter confirmed to cover the battle of Storm's End. Other chapters will cover the battle against the Tyrell army.

Meanwhile, there will be quite some few Cersei chapters in KL covering the aftermath of Kevan's death, the trials against the queens (if they happen), and the animosity/violence/fighting between Cersei and Mace (and the Faith Militant) if things escalate there. That is going to take time, too.

And meanwhile the stories of Theon/Asha, Jaime/Brienne, Sansa, Arya, Bran, Jon, Melisandre, Davos, Areo, Aeron, Dany, Tyrion, Victarion, Barristan, Samwell will continue. Aegon most likely will take the Iron Throne in TWoW but this is not going to happen in the first half of the book. Rather in the second half or near the end.

I think Aegon will take KL either around half of the book - or quite at the end. but nevertheless, in either scenario I strongly believe that Dany will have reached the Narrow Sea by the end of TWOW.

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

She can conquer all the Free Cities aside from Braavos easily enough. Her Dothraki can burn/destroy Qohor, Norvos, Myr, and Pentos, and helping her attack Volantis from the land (while her navy takes the harbor). Lys and Tyrosh are on the way. Lorath is irrelevant and Braavos a wildcard, but the other cities can be dealt with easily enough. And we don't have to see all that happening. 

For the Dothraki it would be much easier if the bulk of them marched east to the Free Cities where they would then make the journey to Westeros rather than all of them traveling by ship to Westeros from Slaver's Bay. They don't like this whole naval voyage thing, not to mention that they would have to transport hundreds of thousands of horses.

of course she could do all this, but as you said with Lorath: I think it would be irrelevant to conquer all Free Cities and Qarth.

She will take Volantis, because it is a necessary stop for provisions (and because it is highly anticipated in ADWD that this will be the climax of her anti-slavery cruisade).
then she might pass-by Tyrosh, Lys and Myr - they will certainly not fight, they know they cannot win. maybe they deliberately provide her with provisions.
and then comes Pentos. maybe she also leaves this city aside, but I think she will conquer Pentos, because of Illyrio and because it is the price for the Tattered Prince. and it is a good base for a strike against Dragonstone and KL.

[rotting sea cow]

13 hours ago, Nevets said:

I have little interest in reading any more about Essos than I absolutely have to.  To my mind, it is a sideshow.  The real action is in Westeros.

Well, matter of taste. I like Essos much more than Westeros. Volantis is sociologically tremendously interesting because is full of contradictions. And I loved the Rhoyne as landscape more than any place in Westeros. OTOH I find the descriptions of the houses terribly boring. I haven't even looked at the appendices, nor I will. Zero interest on that. Except maybe on the Freys, just because the sheer morbidity they display to their succession line.

 

[rotting sea cow]

2 hours ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

well, some say that it is necessary for Dany to conquer all slave cities in the world in order to finish her anti-slavery campaign and to be truely satisfied. but I agree with you that this will not be the case. otherwise, she would also have to take Qohor, Norvos, Lys, Tyrosh, Myr, Gogossos, New Ghis, and go as far as Asshai. Until she truely abolished slavery in all the world, the Others would already have taken Sunspear. So I'm quite sure that this is not the story George wants to tell.

Conquering most of the Free Cities is easily possible timeline wise. Marching with the Dothraki west put herself at bow shot of most of them. In many case, it will be even necessary (Volantis to Pentos, for example). It's Qarth which may produce timeline conflicts with the events in Westeros. This is why I'm split.

As I explained above, Qarth remains unconquered because the Dothraki are unable to mount an assault against them despite their mutual contempt for each other. Hell, there is even some foreshadowing in the Dosh Khaleen prophesy and Xaro's visit to Meeren. Thematically makes a lot of sense, not only from the antislavery crusade. An extended timeline could help some other themes to develop (see above), but it will also make problems to the development of other plots. I'd bet that timeline has been the bane for GRRM in the writing of the books.

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

at the end of ASOS Dany stated that she would stay in Meereen - we know this statement was made with the 5-years-gap in mind. and indeed GRRM planned to make her leave Meereen in her first chapter after the gap. but since the gap didn't work, Dany had to stay in Meereen on screen for some time. Nevertheless, it seems to be GRRM's intention to make Dany's story as logical as possible, but also to bring her to Westeros as soon as possible. So I don't think that she will make journeys which only distract her from this destination.

No, if it was his intention to bring her to Westeros as soon as possible he would have scrapped that entire stupid Dothraki plot. That is going to take a lot of time. He could have easily enough have arranged things so that she quickly change her view on that 'stay in Meereen and be a queen' politics (say, by Marwyn showing up in her first chapter, but the Ironborn showing up quickly thereafter as a surprise rather than this AfFC buildup we got, and so on). Instead he draw the Meereen story for all of Dany's chapters but one. The tale grew in the telling, and it will continue to grow.

7 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

hm... I think George more than once stated that after the FeastDance he now intends to bring his characters together once more. I think the time for ever more storylines is now over and the geographical scope will now contract.

Sure, he intends to do that. And that will happen to some degree. But we should not overestimate this. Apparently TWoW is going to feature Highgarden and Willas Tyrell in some fashion. That does not indicate that the story is going to contract all that much. And we are also supposed to see Casterly Rock eventually.

7 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

but we don't know where Dragonstone lies exactly. it could be closer to Vaes Dothrak than we think (George often uses such uncertainties to his advantage) - and I also think that her last chapter in ADWD happens weeks before the battle of fire. so her arrival in Vaes Dothrak and the battle of fire could happen at around the same time.

Just check the map. The Dothraki Sea is extremely large and a dragon cannot fly thousands of leagues in a few days. Dany has to eat and drink, and Dragonstone was Drogon's lair since his escape from Meereen. It is not that far away.

7 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

of course, I don't know how it will happen exactly, but I am very confident that it will be Tyrion who brings Dany the news of Aegon. He is the only one who interacted with him and it is very likely that he saw through the deception. he will turn her against Illyrio, Varys and their "perfect prince". and I am also very confident that she will want to strike against them immediately. he is the "mummer's dragon" which she has to slay ("to give the heroes something to fight").

Tyrion has no proof of anything. Things between Aegon and Dany cannot possibly escalate all that quickly. They can still marry each other. Regardless who the hell Prince Aegon actually is. 

7 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

and here I disagree. it would be very unwise to let Aegon consolidate. meanwhile, it will give him legitimacy (which he does not have as a Blackfyre), and he can form alliances and bind the great houses to his rule. and IMO it is not at all guaranteed that Dany could win against a united Westeros. therefore, Tyrion will surely urge her to strike swiftly - and he is quite right to do so.

Why should Dany listen to Tyrion? The man is an ugly dwarf, and the spawn of the man who nearly eradicated her entire family. Even if it turned out that he is her half-brother - if that's true why the hell can't the story about Aegon?

7 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

I think Aegon will take KL either around half of the book - or quite at the end. but nevertheless, in either scenario I strongly believe that Dany will have reached the Narrow Sea by the end of TWOW.

Then Aegon will be nothing but an irrelevant footnote. If he has just Dorne and a few Reach and Stormlords he won't be able to organize any sort of opposition against Daenerys.

7 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

of course she could do all this, but as you said with Lorath: I think it would be irrelevant to conquer all Free Cities and Qarth.

But the Dothraki would want something, too. Not all will go with her to Westeros. And she is going to need much more ships than the Ironborn and Volantenes can give her. Not to mention that she can get a lot of provisions and resources from the Free Cities if she puts them all to the torch. Fire and blood, remember?

7 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

She will take Volantis, because it is a necessary stop for provisions (and because it is highly anticipated in ADWD that this will be the climax of her anti-slavery cruisade).
then she might pass-by Tyrosh, Lys and Myr - they will certainly not fight, they know they cannot win. maybe they deliberately provide her with provisions.

Her armada will need more provisions she can get at Volantis, and if she frees the slaves there it makes no sense to leave the other slaves in Lys and Tyrosh in chains.

[rotting sea cow]

5 hours ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

I strongly disagree here. read the Griffin Reborn chapter. JonCon does not have the time to delay. he will want to rush towards KL to sit Aegon on the IT. look at the disgust he has for the cautious nature of Harry Strickland. Aegon himself is a youth without fear - he also won't delay the course of action. same goes with Arianne. I strongly lean towards the theory of BryndenBFish in how they will take KL - and IMO this will not take more than 2-3 months after they took Storm's End

Well, JonCon expects to survive up to 10 years. I doubt he will, certainly not long after taking KL. Whether it will be easy or not, depends on many things. For example, if they are defeated by the army from KL and they need to wait for the Dorne's armies to break a siege of SE, etc. And again, I put the resolution of Aegon's plotline as an example of the things that can be delayed "to wait" for an extended Dany's Essos campaign. Other plots are more difficult to justify extra delays in their resolution. It doesn't mean that this delay will happen nor I'm making predictions about the course of actions.

[rotting sea cow]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If they were so important he wouldn't have treated the men he left on the Shields as expendable scum.

Euron is treating the whole ironborn people as "expendable scum". This is clear in Feast. He is die hard populist, using all the symbolism of the ironborn culture to get them behind whatever plan he has in mind. But he only needs their blood.

If I can make a bet, Euron wants to make himself the next Night King.

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Euron is treating the whole ironborn people as "expendable scum". This is clear in Feast. He is die hard populist, using all the symbolism of the ironborn culture to get them behind whatever plan he has in mind. But he only needs their blood.

If I can make a bet, Euron wants to make himself the next Night King.

Why should he do ridiculous stuff like that? The man might not even know who the Night's King was. There are hints that he might have had the talents to become a greenseer but that doesn't mean he understood anything of it. He grew up in a culture celebrating the power of the strong over weak, and so he now wants to become the most powerful guy around. That makes sense.

Euron originally wanted to go to Slaver's Bay and he might have a plan in place to ensure that Victarion is not going to betray him (his agent being the dusky woman who might have ensured that Victarion die off his festered wound until Moqorro put an end to that).

[Leo of House Cartel]

Fantastic OP m'lord.

In regards to Tyrion potentially telling Dany about Aegons "Blackfyre Heritage", would this really be the wisest course of action for him? After all, what does he really know? Sure, The Imp may have reasons to distrust Illyrios word and Aegons backstory, but with a lack of any proof against Aegons claim, what reason would Dany have to believe him? 

Tyrions main MO seems to be "Get back to Westeros, Kill Cersei, Claim The Rock", so what purpose would it serve to sow distrust in Danys camp towards Aegon? Would he not be better placed to gain what he desires if he is the man who brokers an alliance between Dany and Aegon? A united force of Danys armada and the Golden Company would be better poised to ensure Cerseis death and Tyrions conquest of The Rock.

Yes, Young Griff did knock a cyvasse board over and he did command Tyrion to clean it up, but is this alone enought to make Tyrion think "To hell with the lad, let him burn"? Was it not Young Aegon who ordered Tyrions rescue after the incident at The Sorrows? Technically speaking the boy saved Tyrions life, so he is owed big, and lets not forget: A Lannister Always pays his debts.

Throughout ADWD we see Tyrion experiencing a wave of self pity and nihilism, however we are given no reason to believe he is "turning heel", nor are we really given much reason to believe he views Aegon and co as such. Wouldn't Tyrion deliberately trying to engineer another "Dance" foor no other reason than "suspicion" be a bit much? Again, he may have found Connigton to be insufferable, but his time on the Shy Maid was also the closest Tyrion has come to being part of a something resembling a sane family for a fair amount of time. The Halfman may recognise that Illyrio and Varys are a pair of dirty schemers, but Tyrion himself is a dirty schemer, and if not for Varys and Illyrio he would simply be a dead schemer.

The people who exiled Tyrion took everything from him. Knowing the mans attitude towards vengeance, his thoughts towards The Targaryen Restoration plot may be something like "To hell with those bastards in KL, if I can sway the Dragon Queen towards the Dragon Prince then everyone who screwed me over will be ruined!". This option would surley be appealing to Tyrion as it would "make Tywin spin in his grave" like few other things Tyrion could possibly do.

From a hustling standpoint, Tyrion would have the high ground when it comes to his eventual parlay with Dany. He would surley be able to guess that Dany harbours deep emotional distress regarding her family: feelings Tyrion himself has felt his whole life. He may be able to play upon these emotional triggers, especially when bringing up news of Danys long lost nephew still being alive. 

Wouldn't it be more beneficial to Tyrions personal "Game of Thrones" if he  tryed to give Dany what she always wanted - family, and in turn gave Young Aegon what he wants - Danys hand in marriage. 

From Danys standpoint, I'm not necissarilly convinced she will view Aegon as a threat to her claim. While she may approach with caution, I personally think it would be more in keeping with her established character to view Aegon as a "positive". As I mentioned previously, Daenerys has alot of issues when it comes to family. She never experienced decent family life and when she nearly achieved a brood to call her own, Drogo and Rhaego, they were ripped from her. With her whole "remember who you are" scenario going on, I forsee The Mother of Dragons taking a more Targaryen influenced approach to life. Tyrion may get a chance to put all that Dragon lore to good use and actually teach Daenerys in ins and out of dragon history.  Tyrion bringing news of "Rhaegars son, fighting for the Dragons honour in Westeros" could make Dany feel closer to being part of the Targaryen "Family" than any point in her life. (At this point does she look back fondly on her time spent "Running from the usurpers knives" with Viserys as a "proud dragon tradition"?)

If Barristan survives the Battle of Fire I imagine he would council Dany to "go to the lad": If the chance exists that the son of Rhaegar still lives wouldn't Barry be more likely to council Dany to meet with her brothers son first, rather than declare war and worry about succession? He is The Queens most trusted advisor at this point so his opinion would hold a great deal of weight when it comes time to discuss The Son of Rhaegar.

 

[Lord Varys]

@Leo of House Cartel

I'm on board here with your view. Tyrion might have doubts about Aegon but the thing is that this does not really matter. It is profitable for him and Dany to go with him being Rhaegar's son until they get a really good reason that he isn't. And they won't get such a reason easily far away in Slaver's Bay.

Even if they knew for a fact he was some Blackfyre descendant it might still be profitable to pretend that they think he is not.

Tyrion's ploy to convince Aegon to abandon Dany seems to have been based on his desire for quick revenge and on his expectation that Tywin's death is going to cause a power vacuum to be exploited by Aegon.

Now setting up Dany to fight Aegon is not going to profit Tyrion in any way, at least not while they are in Essos. I think the aggression is going to start with Aegon's side not so much with Dany's. 

[Nevets]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd agree there, but ADwD manifestly shows the intention of the author to expand this sideshow. Else Dany would have begun he journey to Westeros in that book rather than hang out in Meereen and then go into the Dothraki Sea.

Meereen had a purpose, which was to show her ruling, and to have her (and us) learn how difficult it is.  Now that that is done, she is free (in a literary sense) to move on.  It's now Tyrion's turn.  Lucky guy!

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He could. But he won't. The story is expanding still, and he is not going to make things easy for a character. He never does, especially not in the later books. Just look what he did to Brienne in AFfC. And no, the story is not running out of time. There is no reason to believe George is going to finish this story in two books. That idea got buried by ADwD. George himself might not see or admit that, but he is obviously very wrong in estimating the amount of pages the concepts in his head need or how much time he needs to write those pages.

 I admit to being skeptical that he will finish in two books.  However, he will have to write it as if he is going to finish in two, or else, given how his story tends to expand, three will be out of reach.  And if it goes beyond three more books, it will never get finished.

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, but the journey from Dany's Dragonstone to Vaes Dothrak is going to take time. If you keep in mind how many space the chapters covering the two battles, the situation in KL and the Stormlands will take we may most likely get no more than, say, two Dany chapters in the first third (or even half) of the book. Remember, TWoW will have all the POVs of the series, more than ADwD had.

Dany can also not make a plan to unite the Dothraki before she reaches Vaes Dothrak because she must have all the pieces to come up with a plan, not just some few. That is all going to take time.

I anticipate that the various stories will begin to merge and coalesce.  My prediction is for the "big 6" to have roughly half the chapter (40 or so) will Daenerys having the most of these.

the trip to Vaes Dothrak can probably be done in one chapter.  Convincing them can be done in 2 or 3.  That's if he wants to move the story along.  Yes, I know that the preview chapters don't give much hope on this score.  But I expect that the preview chapters we have gotten are the ones without spoilers, so they will naturally not accomplish that much.  I expect (hope?) the book as a whole will move faster.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It played a significant role in Dany's story and Quaithe might still be there. She might want to talk to her person again. Besides, after Dany went to Vaes Dothrak the last time she went to Qarth next. And she had to go east to go west.

Qarth may have played a role in her story.  I still don't see why we need to go back there.  And Quaithe can talk to Dany any time she chooses, it seems.  I will admit to being baffled by the "east to go west" line

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You can only cramp so much in a books of merely 1,000 pages. George has carefully introduced new Westerosi plots in ASoS and AFfC/ADwD, and those have to be served one way or another. If he had intended to rush things there would have been no Euron, Aegon, Oldtown, Dorne, Faith Militant, or the Stark children chilling somewhere.

Given that I anticipate the stories merging and coalescing, these stories can probably still be served.  Some of these may merge with each other (Euron and Oldtown, Aegon and Dorne).  I expect stories such as the Freys and the Faceless Men will probably be sidelined, and good riddance.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, he intends to do that. And that will happen to some degree. But we should not overestimate this. Apparently TWoW is going to feature Highgarden and Willas Tyrell in some fashion. That does not indicate that the story is going to contract all that much. And we are also supposed to see Casterly Rock eventually.

I expect that Highgarden may be seen through Sam, especially if the Ironborn invasion reaches that far.  Other possibilities (Jamie, Cersei?) exist as well.  As for Casterly Rock, I expect that we will see it in the Prologue.  I believe that it will include Jeyne Westerling's arrival at CR and give us insight into events in the capital and Riverlands.

[Leo of House Cartel]

@Lord Varys  

In regards to the OP and the issue of time/page constraint...

With magical forces trickling into Planetos, GRRM has several plot devices at his disposal which he may be able to use to "hurry" the processes of several battles along. Dragons, potential Krakens and magic storms, Direwolves, Glass Candles. These could all prove deciding factors in upcoming battles and will most probably be used by George to hammer home to the reader, and the people of Westeros, the idea that magic has indeed returned to the world.

The Battle of Fire will feature the first true combat test for Danys dragons,and is thus the fate of the men taking part is hard to predict. Considering the sheer volume of enemy bodies coming via boat and land who will be crowded together in tight spaces I could see Viserion and Rhaegal turning this "Battle" into a massacre. The sheer amount of moving parts involved with the enemy forces (Volantene, Yunkai, sellswords etc) will further add to the chaos and confusion as fire rains from the sky.

Out in the Dothraki sea, I envision Dany to deal with Jhaqo and company in a sift manner. We know the Dothrakis lives are governed by superstition, so Dany riding upon a decent sized Drogon could be something they would instantly bow to. The widow of the greatest Khal who ever lived, riding a creature thought extinct could certainly be seen as proof of "The Stallion who Mounts the World.

Dany should finally come to some kind of conclusion regarding her "Remember who you are" subplot. Whever through the intervention of the Dosh Khaleen or some Quaithe related whispering, I'm sure Dany will go through a similiar awakening process to the ones experienced by Bran and Arya in ADWD. While I am confident she will be proclaimed Khal of Khals and use the united hordes to help with Mereen, I see her becoming more interested in the subtle points of Targaryen culture rather than that of her dead husband. Dany looks back on Drogo with fondness as most of us do, but I'm sure The Breaker of Chains doesn't share that same sentiment for his people, a people who revel in rape and abuse. If the Dothraki are to come to Westeros with Daenerys, they will surely have to remove the brutal elements of their culture. If they are unwilling to change, Dany could maybe see more use in them as an "Extermination squad" in Essos, her personal standing army abroad who keep control in Essos and (in their own way) keep the Slavers in line. Hopefully we get some new information on the man Drogo was behind closed doors, what was his relationship like with Khal Barbho? What was his greatest battle? Hopefully such matters will be talking points if/when Dany goes to Vaes Dothrak...

The situation at The Wall should continue to build towards The Others emergence. I expect some information regarding the history of The Watch as well as The Long Night to be unearthed from the Castle Black Library by either men loyal to Selyse, Mel or Tormund. While The Wall coming down suddenly in TWOW would be bombastic, it would be better served as a drawn out process. We have experienced a long build towards The Others merely appearing in numbers, so logic should dictate that GRRM would want to milk every bit of emotion out of the build towards The Others attacking The Wall when they do appear. 

Brans plot will see some changes, but will remain rooted in Bloodravens cavern. Through his weirwood training, Bran is perfectly poised to find out several of the series secrets and potentially tie up a few loose ends. I expect these POVs to shed new light on The Others, The Dragons and Those Who Sing The Song of Earth. I could see Bran having a smaller number of POVs due to George maybe not wanting to give to much of the game away just yet.

Eurons battle with the Redwyn fleet has the potential to be rather short, If we go by the assumption that he does indeed raise a Kraken/Krakens. This battle could actually run parallel to The Battle of Fire, with one battle being a fiery rout due to the flying monsters, while the other being a parade of watery graves due to the undersea cratures. Any size of actual Kraken appearing may be considered by some as gratitous, but I always thought seeing one would be a great crowd pleasing moment. The great thing about Eurons arc is that the people around him seem to know less about his intentions than we do. He has played everyone so far, redirecting operations on multiple occasions and changing plans on the fly. Euron Greyjoy: King of The Iron Isles, The Bait, and The Switch.

In regards to Cersei, strategically her best hope may be a pact with Euron. As she spirals further into psicosis I see her arc taking a large change of direction. With her public shaming, wanning power and looming trial, her story seems to be headed down a more violent path, as at this point violence is Cersei Lannisters only realistic course of action. Who does she have to depend upon should Ser Robert Strong fail? If she intends of keeping hold of power, the only viable option may be Euron. For all we know there may have already been words sent between the two, are we really to believe Euron is waiting on Dany without a back up plan? Her material in TWOW should be pretty extensive, so I see a good number of chapters being dedicated.

Jaime may well already be in the hands of the Brotherhood Without Banners. How much time will have elapsed between the time Brienne told him of "Sansas capture" and the start of TWOW? Jaime eventually linking up with Aegon is a strong possibility. If Stoneheart does indeed have The Kingslayer imprisoned, I imagine he will have to fight his way out, in this case I still bet on Jaime. The chapter of the Brotherhood led by Edric Dayne could perhaps prove helpful in Jaimes escape. This could then lead Edric (nephew of Arthur) and Jaime towards Young Aegon.

Look for the new Warden of The West, Daven Lannister, to do some interesting things with his position: A young lord who had just been given power beyond his dreams, he seemed like a fine fellow when Jaime met him so I wonder how he could play into future scenarios with Cersei, The Ironborn, The North or The Reach.

Aryas training will lead to another change of direction. As we learn more about The Faceless Men and their MO, Aryas chapter could act as a good insight into the history of Valyria. Similiar to Bran uncovering mysteries of Ice, I'm confident Arya and The Kindly man will further our knowledge on Red Rhloor, The Doom and certain elements of faith in general.

 

[nickdt]

The problem is: Sometimes, there are to many POV's in one place, so usually we see a scene from both perspectives. I think that has to stop... meaning either Theon/Asha and Brienne/Jaime are going die (North/Riverlands), since if they don't, they will eventually spread out, leaving us with the same problem. I feel like Jaime's story is done, while Brienne's is not, especially if she hears from the BwB that Arya is still alive. GRRM has build up to much with Asha... so Theon will die. He however, will not be sacrificed by Stannis. I suspect him to die in a final act of bravery, giving his life to save Asha's. 

In Meereen, we also have to much POV's. Four... if we count Dany. Thus... two off them have to die or not getting anymore POV's. We also have to much plots in Essos. We have Dany, Victarion... but also... and people seem to forget that... the Side Plot of the Tattered Prince. I mention the Side plot, since i don't think the Prince will die, since there is to much build-up to his character and the deal with Barristan. So that is another problem... which can easily be dealt with if Dany grants the Prince Pentos. This will be a good move on Dany's part, since that creates a problem for FAegon and JonCon, since they can be attacked in the rear. 

The Dorne plot can easily be solved by killing Areo and thus have no more POV's there. But then... that creates another problem since we don't have eyes on Darkstar and what he is up to. 

The Euron plot: The Aeron and Sam POV's are going to intersect, which means Aeron is a goner, since Sam is too important to die in TWOW. 

JonCon/FAegon plot: Since we soon have two POV's there, JonCon is likely going to die. 

The ones that are safe at the moment because they are the only POVs in the region are Sam, Davos, Cersei Sansa, Bran and Arya. Hotah is alone as well, but as already mentioned above he needs to go to advance the plot. 

The simple conclusion that can be made: The amount of main plots is okay... the amount of sideplots however are the problem. And if GRRM wants to do everything in two books, that means most sideplots are going to be unresolved, else he has written himself into a corner he can't come out off. 

[Nevets]

20 minutes ago, nickdt said:

The problem is: Sometimes, there are to many POV's in one place, so usually we see a scene from both perspectives. I think that has to stop... meaning either Theon/Asha and Brienne/Jaime are going die (North/Riverlands), since if they don't, they will eventually spread out, leaving us with the same problem. I feel like Jaime's story is done, while Brienne's is not, especially if she hears from the BwB that Arya is still alive. GRRM has build up to much with Asha... so Theon will die. He however, will not be sacrificed by Stannis. I suspect him to die in a final act of bravery, giving his life to save Asha's. 

In Meereen, we also have to much POV's. Four... if we count Dany. Thus... two off them have to die or not getting anymore POV's. We also have to much plots in Essos. We have Dany, Victarion... but also... and people seem to forget that... the Side Plot of the Tattered Prince. I mention the Side plot, since i don't think the Prince will die, since there is to much build-up to his character and the deal with Barristan. So that is another problem... which can easily be dealt with if Dany grants the Prince Pentos. This will be a good move on Dany's part, since that creates a problem for FAegon and JonCon, since they can be attacked in the rear. 

The Dorne plot can easily be solved by killing Areo and thus have no more POV's there. But then... that creates another problem since we don't have eyes on Darkstar and what he is up to. 

The Euron plot: The Aeron and Sam POV's are going to intersect, which means Aeron is a goner, since Sam is too important to die in TWOW. 

JonCon/FAegon plot: Since we soon have two POV's there, JonCon is likely going to die. 

The ones that are safe at the moment because they are the only POVs in the region are Sam, Davos, Cersei Sansa, Bran and Arya. Hotah is alone as well, but as already mentioned above he needs to go to advance the plot. 

The simple conclusion that can be made: The amount of main plots is okay... the amount of sideplots however are the problem. And if GRRM wants to do everything in two books, that means most sideplots are going to be unresolved, else he has written himself into a corner he can't come out off. 

Nice to see that someone else thinks that Jaime's story might be at an end.  Most posters assume that if anyone dies,it will be Brienne.  By the way, Brienne already knows Arya is alive, and in fact has more recent info on her than the BwB does.

In Meereen, I expect that Barristan and Victaion will cease being POVs.  Barristan is only a POV because George needed coverage in Meereen after Dany left on Drogon's back.

I expect that a lot of the "extra" POVs will simply stop being POVs and not necessarily die.  Especially the more minor ones.

[The hairy bear]

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

Nice to see that someone else thinks that Jaime's story might be at an end.  Most posters assume that if anyone dies,it will be Brienne. 

I have no idea what's George's plan for those two, but it seems to me that if he was planning to have lady Stonheart just hang Jaime at the beginning of Winds would be a little weird from a "meta" perspective:

• Structurally, if Jaime were to die, it would have made more sense to include it at the end of ADWD. Specially since Jaime's death would be the direct closure of his recent actions (taking Riverrun, forcing the surrender of Ravenwood Tree,...). It must be admitted that AFFC and ADWD are already a little bit ill-structured as they stand, but that would be a little too much.
• Thematically, one would expect that if that was the end of Jaime's voyage the author would have done more to underline the tragedy/irony of the situation. For instance, I would have made Jaime more sympathetic in his last chapters.

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

 By the way, Brienne already knows Arya is alive, and in fact has more recent info on her than the BwB does.

I'm lost here. I can't remember which information Brienne can have about Arya other that whatever the BwB has told her.

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

I expect that a lot of the "extra" POVs will simply stop being POVs and not necessarily die.  Especially the more minor ones.

I agree on principle, but George has implied that a POV will remain a POV until dying. In some of his Not a Blog he says that he'll need to kill some because he has too many, and on some interviews he has made comments to similar extents.