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Plot developments / expectations for The Winds of Winter


Lord Varys

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8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

A jump in time? What do you mean that GRRM doesn't write them? Chapter 52 of ADWD Dany jumps on the back of Drogon and flies away. We don't see Dany again until Chapter 71. In that chapter enough time has passed for Dany's hands to have experienced some healing. We're talking about weeks. How was this not a time jump? There is no reason to show periods of time where nothing of importance happens (like an uneventful journey to Vaes Dothrak).

Sure, there are some such time jumps in the series (Theon springs to mind) but I must say I really don't like that. The time jump you mention here in relation to Dany happened within a book. That would be possible in TWoW, too, of course, but that would then mean we would, most likely, only get the first Dany chapter around the page 500 or so, because a lot of stuff is going to happen before that, not just in Slaver's Bay but everywhere else. George cannot continue Dany's story early on in the book if he is only going to continue her story after she has arrived in Vaes Dothrak.

I'm with you that he is not going to cover her entire journey to Vaes Dothrak, of course, but I think we'll get a chapter covering the events after she met Jhaqo, and then another about the actual journey to Vaes Dothrak. Else there would be pretty much no Dany in the first half of the book.

8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Why would Dany not return to Meereen as soon as she was able? Had Dany not decided to return to Meereen before she met the Dothraki?

She turned her back on Meereen when she decided to accept her destiny and go back to the Dothraki. We don't know what she wants to do now. There is a pretty good chance that she will return to them eventually but this is not her priority now. She has new priorities.

8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

It is guaranteed that Dany did not go to Vaes Dothrak as a prisoner, Drogon was right there. Those Dothraki would be unable to take Drogon and they would be unable to take Dany while Drogon was there. Also, Dany left her allies in an untenable position in Meereen. She knows that. After all she gave Jhogo, Daario, Groleo and Hero as hostages. Why would Dany go gallivanting around Essos under these circumstances?

Because vision Jorah and vision Viserys helped her to change her mind. What Jhaqo is going to do to her now is also unclear. Drogon is powerful but he is not all that large yet. A rain of arrows driven by dragonbone bows could easily enough destroy his wings and then a few score of warriors could easily slay him. Dragons are not immortal.

But that's not what I expect to happen. I think they will reach some sort of compromise and Dany clearly wanted to be found by the Dothraki and intends to go to Vaes Dothrak. Jhaqo is going to take her, whether he will mistreat her.

8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Dany has no need to go to Qarth. If a man across the street yells out to you, "Come over here! I'm going to kick your ass!" do you cross the street and make it easy for him? No. You say, "If you want me come over here and get me." Similarly, if Qarth declares war on Dany, they are going to have to go after her. It makes no sense for Dany to go to them and make it easy for them. Also, story wise, we know one of the parties that have an issue with Dany (the warlocks), have already left to track her down. GRRM has no need story wise to send Dany to Qarth.

If Dany intends to end slavery in Essos (west of Yi Ti) she has to deal with Qarth, too. The Qartheen already declared war on her and if they are not destroyed they can rebuild the slaver cities after she has gone west. Dany has embraced fire and blood now, and one assumes that doesn't mean you allow enemies who could potentially get dangerous to live.

And only Pyat Pree and some buddies left Qarth, the other warlocks are still there. As is Xaro, his merchant buddies, and the Pureborn. They all declared war on her and they have to pay the price for that. As have all the other cities who joined the Yunkish Allies - Yunkai itself, New Ghis, Tolos, etc.

8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Yeah, I'm still going with intersect meaning they meet earlier in the story.

Well, if Tyrion becomes a dragonrider he could take his dragon out into the Dothraki Sea to fly to Vaes Dothrak and go look for her there. She does not have to return to them for him to meet her in such a fashion.

If we assume Tyrion is told (by Barristan Selmy) that he could be Dany's half-brother (as I think he will) and he is taking the fact that he became a dragonrider as confirmation that this might actually be the case then he might discover enough brotherly feelings for Daenerys to actually go look for her - rather than declare her dead and take command of all her forces to conquer Westeros in his own name as 'Tyrion Targaryen' or Tyrion Truefyre or whatever fancy name he might give himself as a Targaryen bastard.

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On ‎2‎/‎25‎/‎2017 at 4:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, there are some such time jumps in the series (Theon springs to mind) but I must say I really don't like that. The time jump you mention here in relation to Dany happened within a book. That would be possible in TWoW, too, of course, but that would then mean we would, most likely, only get the first Dany chapter around the page 500 or so, because a lot of stuff is going to happen before that, not just in Slaver's Bay but everywhere else. George cannot continue Dany's story early on in the book if he is only going to continue her story after she has arrived in Vaes Dothrak.

I'm with you that he is not going to cover her entire journey to Vaes Dothrak, of course, but I think we'll get a chapter covering the events after she met Jhaqo, and then another about the actual journey to Vaes Dothrak. Else there would be pretty much no Dany in the first half of the book.

She turned her back on Meereen when she decided to accept her destiny and go back to the Dothraki. We don't know what she wants to do now. There is a pretty good chance that she will return to them eventually but this is not her priority now. She has new priorities.

Because vision Jorah and vision Viserys helped her to change her mind. What Jhaqo is going to do to her now is also unclear. Drogon is powerful but he is not all that large yet. A rain of arrows driven by dragonbone bows could easily enough destroy his wings and then a few score of warriors could easily slay him. Dragons are not immortal.

But that's not what I expect to happen. I think they will reach some sort of compromise and Dany clearly wanted to be found by the Dothraki and intends to go to Vaes Dothrak. Jhaqo is going to take her, whether he will mistreat her.

If Dany intends to end slavery in Essos (west of Yi Ti) she has to deal with Qarth, too. The Qartheen already declared war on her and if they are not destroyed they can rebuild the slaver cities after she has gone west. Dany has embraced fire and blood now, and one assumes that doesn't mean you allow enemies who could potentially get dangerous to live.

And only Pyat Pree and some buddies left Qarth, the other warlocks are still there. As is Xaro, his merchant buddies, and the Pureborn. They all declared war on her and they have to pay the price for that. As have all the other cities who joined the Yunkish Allies - Yunkai itself, New Ghis, Tolos, etc.

Well, if Tyrion becomes a dragonrider he could take his dragon out into the Dothraki Sea to fly to Vaes Dothrak and go look for her there. She does not have to return to them for him to meet her in such a fashion.

If we assume Tyrion is told (by Barristan Selmy) that he could be Dany's half-brother (as I think he will) and he is taking the fact that he became a dragonrider as confirmation that this might actually be the case then he might discover enough brotherly feelings for Daenerys to actually go look for her - rather than declare her dead and take command of all her forces to conquer Westeros in his own name as 'Tyrion Targaryen' or Tyrion Truefyre or whatever fancy name he might give himself as a Targaryen bastard.

I really disagree about the time jump thing. It was originally GRRM's intention to jump over five whole years (or all of autumn). The only reason GRRM didn't do that is because it didn't work structurally for the story. What is most interesting is that it looks like the first chapter for Arya will be the first chapter he wrote for Arya before he decided he needed to write AFFC/ADWD. In other words, the story looks to be ending up at the exact same place he always intended it to. So, GRRM does do time jumps if he can.

I went back and re-read Dany's chapters in ADWD and I disagree with you about Dany choosing to abandon Meereen and embrace the Dothraki. What Dany decided was that she wasn't going to take the path of peace anymore. It wasn't getting her what she wanted and it wasn't who she really was. But everyone that Dany cares about is in Meereen. She will return there as soon as she can.

I think you are underestimating the amount of chaos Drogon can bring to the Dothraki. You fail to consider that Dothraki men oil their hair, ride on animals that are afraid of both dragons and fire, and are riding through a sea of drying grass. Drogon breathes fire once in the direction of the group of 50 and the ones that end up on fire going careening out of control starting secondary fires all around them. Any discipline would break down quickly.

The Qartheen are already allies of the Yunkai. Their ships are barricading both the bay and the river. They have also sent ground troops. Why won't defeating them at Meereen be enough? You talked about the decisions that Dany was making and they were to return to Westeros, not run around Essos taking her revenge on everyone who had slighted her.

 

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1 hour ago, bent branch said:

I really disagree about the time jump thing. It was originally GRRM's intention to jump over five whole years (or all of autumn). The only reason GRRM didn't do that is because it didn't work structurally for the story. What is most interesting is that it looks like the first chapter for Arya will be the first chapter he wrote for Arya before he decided he needed to write AFFC/ADWD. In other words, the story looks to be ending up at the exact same place he always intended it to. So, GRRM does do time jumps if he can.

But he scrapped that.

Structurally a novel where we are only going to see one of the main characters at around half of the book is not going to be a good book. And it will also not make for a very good story if uniting all the Dothraki under her power is going to be too easy.

1 hour ago, bent branch said:

I went back and re-read Dany's chapters in ADWD and I disagree with you about Dany choosing to abandon Meereen and embrace the Dothraki. What Dany decided was that she wasn't going to take the path of peace anymore. It wasn't getting her what she wanted and it wasn't who she really was. But everyone that Dany cares about is in Meereen. She will return there as soon as she can.

Will she? That's an open question as of yet. And does she still care about those people at Meereen all that much? We have to wait and see.

Her last words are that she has to go back to get forward. And she searches out the Dothraki by choice. She could have tried to take Drogon in another direction.

1 hour ago, bent branch said:

I think you are underestimating the amount of chaos Drogon can bring to the Dothraki. You fail to consider that Dothraki men oil their hair, ride on animals that are afraid of both dragons and fire, and are riding through a sea of drying grass. Drogon breathes fire once in the direction of the group of 50 and the ones that end up on fire going careening out of control starting secondary fires all around them. Any discipline would break down quickly.

I don't really think that the Dothraki will attack Drogon, but I still think they could do a lot of damage if they tried. And while I believe Drogon will stay with Dany, that they have now permanently bonded, that is not confirmed as of yet. If Drogon left Dany she would be in a very bad position.

I actually think Jhaqo was sent to Slaver's Bay to find out about the rumors involving the dragons and bring Dany back to the dosh khaleen who might have decided to convene some sort of large gathering to assess this changed situation. The Dothraki historically seemed to worship the dragons.

1 hour ago, bent branch said:

The Qartheen are already allies of the Yunkai. Their ships are barricading both the bay and the river. They have also sent ground troops. Why won't defeating them at Meereen be enough? You talked about the decisions that Dany was making and they were to return to Westeros, not run around Essos taking her revenge on everyone who had slighted her.

I'm not insisting on the Qarth thing in any possible scenario. And again, Dany could just sent a khalasar there and then fly to Qarth to oversee its destruction. Dragonriders are very mobile. If Dany gets all the Dothraki she can pretty much destroy/conquer everything west of the Bones.

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33 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But he scrapped that.

Structurally a novel where we are only going to see one of the main characters at around half of the book is not going to be a good book. And it will also not make for a very good story if uniting all the Dothraki under her power is going to be too easy.

Will she? That's an open question as of yet. And does she still care about those people at Meereen all that much? We have to wait and see.

Her last words are that she has to go back to get forward. And she searches out the Dothraki by choice. She could have tried to take Drogon in another direction.

I don't really think that the Dothraki will attack Drogon, but I still think they could do a lot of damage if they tried. And while I believe Drogon will stay with Dany, that they have now permanently bonded, that is not confirmed as of yet. If Drogon left Dany she would be in a very bad position.

I actually think Jhaqo was sent to Slaver's Bay to find out about the rumors involving the dragons and bring Dany back to the dosh khaleen who might have decided to convene some sort of large gathering to assess this changed situation. The Dothraki historically seemed to worship the dragons.

I'm not insisting on the Qarth thing in any possible scenario. And again, Dany could just sent a khalasar there and then fly to Qarth to oversee its destruction. Dragonriders are very mobile. If Dany gets all the Dothraki she can pretty much destroy/conquer everything west of the Bones.

If Drogon flew off and left her there, she'd likely be tortured to death.  So, Drogon will stay.

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3 hours ago, SeanF said:

If Drogon flew off and left her there, she'd likely be tortured to death.  So, Drogon will stay.

Not sure about that. If Jhaqo was there to kill her he could that regardless whether Drogon is there or not. I mean, you know that Silverwing and Vermithor were there when Second Tumbleton began but they could not protect their riders from their enemies.

Dany cannot be with Drogon at all times. If Jhaqo invited Dany into a tent they could easily enough slit her throat in there. What should Drogon do? Avenge her? He is an animal.

I expect some sort of compromise happening there, depending what exactly Jhaqo's intention was. Mago most likely is going to want to see Dany dead, but Jhaqo might have other plans or even other orders. We don't even know why he is there - was he on the way to Slaver's Bay on the invitation of the Ghiscari slavers to destroy Daenerys or does he want to investigate the rumors about her being the Mother of Dragons.

If the latter is the case then this whole thing might be very important for the Dothraki as a people, and if Dany is going to unite the khalasars under her rule then the other khals and their khalasars actually have to be in Vaes Dothrak when she arrives there, or else this whole thing is not going to work.

It could, of course, also only go down to the standard 'a khaleesi has to join the dosh khaleen' thing so they might just drag her along. But Drogon must play a role there, too, which is why there is likely going to be some sort of compromise - say, they agree that Dany has to present herself to the dosh khaleen but is allowed freedom of the khalasar, or something of that sort.

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10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

.

It could, of course, also only go down to the standard 'a khaleesi has to join the dosh khaleen' thing so they might just drag her along. But Drogon must play a role there, too, which is why there is likely going to be some sort of compromise - say, they agree that Dany has to present herself to the dosh khaleen but is allowed freedom of the khalasar, or something of that sort.

Her vision in HOTU does suggest that she will be presented to the Dosh Khaleen in Vaes Dothrak.  My own view is that she will offer the Dothraki the land and riches of Western Essos  if they follow her. There's a throwaway remark by Maester Yandel about the Dothraki never having been further West than Qohor, but he's sure that they'll return one day, which I think is prophetic. I wouldn't be surprised too if they require her to undergo some kind of trial by ordeal, to determine whether they should follow her.

There's another vision which I think is prophetic, of the young Dothraki Khal with silver blond hair, standing proudly in front of a blazing city.  Obviously, one can see that as a vision of Rhaego as he would have been when he grew up, but I also think of it as being a symbolic vision of her as a war leader, demonstrating both her Targaryen heritage and her embrace of Dothraki culture.  I'm sure she will leave many cities in flames behind her. 

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4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Her vision in HOTU does suggest that she will be presented to the Dosh Khaleen in Vaes Dothrak.  My own view is that she will offer the Dothraki the land and riches of Western Essos  if they follow her. There's a throwaway remark by Maester Yandel about the Dothraki never having been further West than Qohor, but he's sure that they'll return one day, which I think is prophetic. I wouldn't be surprised too if they require her to undergo some kind of trial by ordeal, to determine whether they should follow her.

TWoIaF set some khals up as being rather interested in this whole dragon thing, with Khal Dhako taking the name 'the Dragon of the North' and Drogo obviously being interested in marrying a Targaryen daughter.

In that sense the story of the Mother of the Dragons could easily enough cause the dosh khaleen to rethink that whole Stallion Who Mounts the World prophecy thing.

And only prophecy and dragons might be able to unite the Dothraki under one ruler again, especially if that ruler is a woman. There is a certain matriarchic element to their culture with the witch queen Doshi being the one to unite her people under the rule of her son, Khal Mengo. The dosh khaleen clearly take her name from her, and that body might have once been much more powerful than they are today.

4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

There's another vision which I think is prophetic, of the young Dothraki Khal with silver blond hair, standing proudly in front of a blazing city.  Obviously, one can see that as a vision of Rhaego as he would have been when he grew up, but I also think of it as being a symbolic vision of her as a war leader, demonstrating both her Targaryen heritage and her embrace of Dothraki culture.  I'm sure she will leave many cities in flames behind her. 

Doesn't that vision disappear in fire just as Viserys and Drogo are? They are the price Dany has to pay for her three dragons. If the vision was supposed to symbolize Dany embracing Dothraki culture it could have shown her as a Dothraki.

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5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But he scrapped that.

Structurally a novel where we are only going to see one of the main characters at around half of the book is not going to be a good book. And it will also not make for a very good story if uniting all the Dothraki under her power is going to be too easy.

Will she? That's an open question as of yet. And does she still care about those people at Meereen all that much? We have to wait and see.

Her last words are that she has to go back to get forward. And she searches out the Dothraki by choice. She could have tried to take Drogon in another direction.

I don't really think that the Dothraki will attack Drogon, but I still think they could do a lot of damage if they tried. And while I believe Drogon will stay with Dany, that they have now permanently bonded, that is not confirmed as of yet. If Drogon left Dany she would be in a very bad position.

I actually think Jhaqo was sent to Slaver's Bay to find out about the rumors involving the dragons and bring Dany back to the dosh khaleen who might have decided to convene some sort of large gathering to assess this changed situation. The Dothraki historically seemed to worship the dragons.

I'm not insisting on the Qarth thing in any possible scenario. And again, Dany could just sent a khalasar there and then fly to Qarth to oversee its destruction. Dragonriders are very mobile. If Dany gets all the Dothraki she can pretty much destroy/conquer everything west of the Bones.

Yes, he scrapped that, but not because he was philosophically opposed to time jumps.

The idea that Dany will show up so late in the story is yours alone.

So, you're one of the people who think Dany is a sociopath? You think she cares for no one but herself? I think she genuinely cares for Daario, Selmy, Missandei, Jhogo, Grey Worm, etc.

She had been trying to take Drogon back to Meereen for weeks. Drogon wouldn't go. That is why she was walking. She was on the verge of death, that is why she approached the Dothraki, not because she had made some rational decision to join with the Dothraki.

The Dothraki already knew for certain about Drogon. He had been preying upon their horses and from the air Dany could see large burnt spots in the grass where Drogon had been hunting.

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On 1.3.2017 at 7:21 PM, bent branch said:

Yes, he scrapped that, but not because he was philosophically opposed to time jumps.

Sure, but that one would have been a major jump ahead in time involving all the characters, not just one. And thinking about that - if George wanted to make this into a twist why not have Dany disappear and then have her show up with a Dothraki khalasar weeks or months later. The fact that we got another Dany chapter at the very end of ADwD suggests that he wants to begin a new story for her there.

Quote

The idea that Dany will show up so late in the story is yours alone.

One that is based on the fact that TWoW will include all the POV characters as well as cover a lot of battles in a lot of chapters early on in the book. I'm not very confident that it would make sense to have a Dany chapter early on in that book if her story is supposed to begin in Vaes Dothrak.

Quote

So, you're one of the people who think Dany is a sociopath? You think she cares for no one but herself? I think she genuinely cares for Daario, Selmy, Missandei, Jhogo, Grey Worm, etc.

No, I don't think she is a sociopath. But I think that those visions she had put her on another path. Vision Viserys and vision Jorah broadened her view and changed her perspective. Going back to Meereen no longer is her top priority. And her goals might change even more when she finally arrives in Vaes Dothrak. When she left Qarth she wanted to go to Pentos and then Westeros only to get sidetracked in Slaver's Bay. She might very well get sidetracked again in Vaes Dothrak.

Quote

She had been trying to take Drogon back to Meereen for weeks. Drogon wouldn't go. That is why she was walking. She was on the verge of death, that is why she approached the Dothraki, not because she had made some rational decision to join with the Dothraki.

She could have made a different decision. Especially after Drogon actually came down and allowed her to mount him. They could have returned to Dragonstone after Drogon they had feasted on the horse together. Or she could have made another attempt to convince Drogon to take her back to Slaver's Bay. There was no need for them to wait for the Dothraki.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I suspect the main plot arcs of Winds to be along the following lines:

The North

The defeat of Stannis, the resurrection of Jon, the Starks retaking Winterfell, the vale coming North (will be different from the show though clearly).  Jon becoming King in the North via Robs Will after Winterfell is taken. We may see the White Walkers reach the wall too, that would be a great place for the Northern Story line to end but I don't think the wall will fall until early ADOS.

The South

I suspect Cersei and Euron will form an alliance to defeat Aegon, it's great that the show has left this out but I am fairly convinced this will be a big piece of Winds.  Tommen is definitely dying. But the aftermath of all of this should leave things in ruin for Dany's invasion.

Dorne

This is hardest to predict, I think Mycella will die purely because of the prophecy, I don't see Arianne dying maybe one of the sand snakes though.   With Aegon likely to fail I am really confused with where this plot will go.

Essos

I would be gobsmacked if Dany doesn't finally head for Westeros or meet Tyrion in Winds, it will be very different from the show however.  I guess she will spend at least a third of Winds with the Dothraki though.  Barristan may fall in the battle of Mereen but I wouldn't be surprised if he lives too.

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56 minutes ago, JonSnowed said:

The South

I suspect Cersei and Euron will form an alliance to defeat Aegon, it's great that the show has left this out but I am fairly convinced this will be a big piece of Winds.  Tommen is definitely dying. But the aftermath of all of this should leave things in ruin for Dany's invasion.

Euron has no reason to ally with Cersei.  Aegon, meanwhile, is for Dany to deal with; he'll be in charge when Dany arrives.

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I used to agree with that and yes I have been influenced a little by the show (no spoilers there as it's not in the show)  but I am now more or less convinced when Dany arrives Cersei will still be in power. Some sort of alliance between Cersei and Euron makes sense too.  I guess Aegon could still be alive and fighting when Dany arrives though, I just do not believe he will be in power when Dany arrives.

My rationale for this is that Dany will never take the iron throne, I believe she will head north before doing so which fits with the original outline GRRM wrote for the story (remaining characters heading north to face the others).  I also suspect she will die in the North before the end, as I can't see both her and Jon living and she is the more likely to do die.

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On 24.3.2017 at 0:38 AM, JonSnowed said:

The North

The defeat of Stannis, the resurrection of Jon, the Starks retaking Winterfell, the vale coming North (will be different from the show though clearly).  Jon becoming King in the North via Robs Will after Winterfell is taken. We may see the White Walkers reach the wall too, that would be a great place for the Northern Story line to end but I don't think the wall will fall until early ADOS.

That sounds you are too much influenced by 

Spoiler

the TV show. It seems very likely to me that Stannis and the Boltons will resolve the Winterfell issue in TWoW. There won't be any battle of the bastards and the like in the books. Jon might still end up as Stannis' heir (sort of) but only later in time and after a series of different events leading to the sacrifice of Shireen and Stannis' own death.

 

On 24.3.2017 at 0:38 AM, JonSnowed said:

The South

I suspect Cersei and Euron will form an alliance to defeat Aegon, it's great that the show has left this out but I am fairly convinced this will be a big piece of Winds.  Tommen is definitely dying. But the aftermath of all of this should leave things in ruin for Dany's invasion.

Cersei and Euron might eventually team up but I doubt that's going to lead to Aegon's defeat. Could be, but I think Aegon, Euron, and Cersei will all be around by the time Dany finally arrives.

On 24.3.2017 at 0:38 AM, JonSnowed said:

Dorne

This is hardest to predict, I think Mycella will die purely because of the prophecy, I don't see Arianne dying maybe one of the sand snakes though.   With Aegon likely to fail I am really confused with where this plot will go.

Myrcella is no longer in Dorne. Aegon and Arianne will most likely marry and Aegon is going to rule a vast chunk of Westeros by the time Dany arrives.

On 24.3.2017 at 1:37 AM, Colonel Green said:

Euron has no reason to ally with Cersei.  Aegon, meanwhile, is for Dany to deal with; he'll be in charge when Dany arrives.

Cersei is not going to be able to reclaim power in KL. The Tyrells and the Faith will prevent that, and Aegon is not going to marry her. He way back to power leads to Euron. With Dany not coming yet Euron has to search elsewhere for allies and if Tommen and Myrcella die Cersei will have nothing left but her vengeance. The Lady of Casterly Rock and the King of the Iron Islands would make a great couple, Euron providing the magics and his genius, and Cersei the gold to hire and bribe people as well as a still pretty powerful army on the mainland. Together they could become the bane of the land and become more than just a small nuisance for both Aegon and Dany.

It seems that Aegon is going to take KL from Tommen and the Tyrells. Euron and Cersei, in turn, could take the capital from Aegon if they successfully lure him out on some campaign, or something of that sort.

Oh, and by the way - Cersei works with Qyburn. Euron and Qyburn would find out that they have a lot in common.

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  • 1 month later...

I see Jon going north.

Think about it:

Jon is not needed in the Winterfell drama at the moment since GRRM has Stannis there to take the role. And Stannis seems to have a real battle plan. And some advantages that the Boltons don't know about. Also Theon and Asha are there as POVs. And Mance is up to something. And Wyman Manderly. And Davos. The ingredients are there for the Winterfell plot to run its course without Jon.

However GRRM has stated that we would go further north than ever before in TWOW. Who can go there? Bran is crippled. The only other POV up there is Jon really unless we count Melisandre.

Whether Jon gets resurrected before going north or whether he goes north as Ghost (what a fitting name) I don't know. Personally I would prefer him to stay in Ghost for a while and see him on a quest in wolf-form. That would also fit with Bran's vision of Jon seeminly lying frozen in an ice cell. But it could go either way.

I'd love to see Val go north with Ghost. That would be awesome. No clue in that direction yet though.

If Jon went north that would mirror Dany's seemingly going to Vaes Dothrak and quite probably missing the battle for Meereen. Both characters would be on quests alone. Since their arcs pretty much have always moved symmetrically that would fit better than if Jon went to Winterfell and decided the battle there while Dany was on the loner-path, letting Meereen run its course.

 

 

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I like this. You may be right.

 

9 hours ago, Amris said:

I see Jon going north.

Think about it:

Jon is not needed in the Winterfell drama at the moment since GRRM has Stannis there to take the role. And Stannis seems to have a real battle plan. And some advantages that the Boltons don't know about. Also Theon and Asha are there as POVs. And Mance is up to something. And Wyman Manderly. And Davos. The ingredients are there for the Winterfell plot to run its course without Jon.

However GRRM has stated that we would go further north than ever before in TWOW. Who can go there? Bran is crippled. The only other POV up there is Jon really unless we count Melisandre.

Bran is still a possibility, because he can "visit" this very northern places using the weirwood.net. Davos too if he somehow ends in a mission in the Shivering Sea.

9 hours ago, Amris said:

Whether Jon gets resurrected before going north or whether he goes north as Ghost (what a fitting name)

Indeed, Ghost was foreshadowing Jon's death from the very beginning.

9 hours ago, Amris said:

I don't know. Personally I would prefer him to stay in Ghost for a while and see him on a quest in wolf-form. That would also fit with Bran's vision of Jon seeminly lying frozen in an ice cell. But it could go either way.

I'd love to see Val go north with Ghost. That would be awesome. No clue in that direction yet though.

This is the main problem here, what would be his mission. He would need to learn it whilst 'death'.

9 hours ago, Amris said:

If Jon went north that would mirror Dany's seemingly going to Vaes Dothrak and quite probably missing the battle for Meereen. Both characters would be on quests alone. Since their arcs pretty much have always moved symmetrically that would fit better than if Jon went to Winterfell and decided the battle there while Dany was on the loner-path, letting Meereen run its course.

Indeed

 

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10 hours ago, Amris said:

However GRRM has stated that we would go further north than ever before in TWOW. Who can go there? Bran is crippled. The only other POV up there is Jon really unless we count Melisandre.

Davos is apparently going to Skagos to pick up Rickon.  It is easy to imagine that he ends up at Hardhome and/or the far north.  In fact, I think he is better positioned than anyone else.

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I look at the next book from the perspective that GRRM has to reduce the number of story lines he created in ADWD and AFFC.

As to Arya in Braavos and Bran in Bloodraven's cave - I see no problem here; GRRM will involve them in other story lines as he wishes. It should not be difficult: Bran does not have to move physically and Arya can get to Westeros within a week or so by ship.

As for the famous Mereen knot, it seems to me the easier part:

  • Once Daenerys reappears in Mereen, Barristan Selmy can disappear again as POV.
  • Tyrion is just outside the walls of Mereen, as is Victarion with his Iron fleet. All three parties can meet within a day, be it for negotiation, partnering up or battle.
  • Daenerys can be led back to Mereen easily; in my opinion no need to waste time on whatever she experiences with the Dothraki. She will probably fulfill the prophecy of going under the mountain in Vaes Dothrak, become leader of a big khalassar and return to Mereen. Could be told by Daenerys in retrospective, as GRRM has done so often. Less than a chapter needed for that.

The bigger issue I see is in Westeros. GRRM once promised that Howland Reed and Garland/Willas Tyrell would have a bigger role in TWOW. I cannot imagine that they would be given POV Status now, as it would open up further story lines (if that was GRRRM's intention anytime at all).

Really difficult will be to reduce the following story lines, be it by killing characters or by bringing them together to form one out of two separate story lines.

From North to South we have roughly eleven:

  • Castle Black (Jon Snow, Melisandre)
  • Skagos (Davos, Rickon)
  • crofter's village (Stannis, Asha, Theon)
  • Winterfell (Roose and Ramsay Bolton, Lord Manderly, Hosteen Frey, Mance Rayder)
  • Riverlands (Brienne, Jaime, Catelyn Stark)
  • The Vale (Sansa, Littlefinger)
  • Kings Landing (Cersei, Varys, Tommen, Sand Snakes)
  • Storm's End (Jon Connington, Aegon, Arianne)
  • The Reach (Euron Greyjoy, Aeron Damphair)
  • Oldtown (Samwell Tarly)
  • Dorne (Areo Hotah, Doran Martell. Myrcella Lannister, Darkstar, Obara Sand, Balon Swann)

Some of these story lines can be dealt with easily (e.g. Davos returning empty handed to Castle Black, Battle of Ice leaving one of the opposing armies destroyed). But it will be very hard to reduce them down to less than five.

The only way I see is a lot of dying characters; bringing people together and become friends is much more difficult here than in Mereen, due to travle distance and enmities.

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Some of My Thought on the Winds of Winter :


The Wall : 

We have some POV  inside Ghost's head (being possesed by Jon's) 

We Have some flashbacks on Melissandre's mind about his time on Asshai,She read the pink letter,
in a moment of despair,She will try ressurrect Jon by burning Sheeren at the stake,some Dragon Egg that lies on The Wall 
since Dance of the Dragon's time will hatch causing the Wall to fall . (but this will happens at the books's ending)

Stannis :

Stannis will send Asha and some man agains the Frey at the twins. with the Help of Bran trough a tree,Stannis and his man enter Winterfell trough a Shortcut,Stannis wins,Ramsay is aprisoned and have a destiny similar to Vargo Hoat but being feed to his dogs piece by piece instead (like in the show) .


Euron and Cersey :

Euron will kill Aeron and Fallia in a ritual summoning a storm that will destroy all the ships of redwine and all his enemies fleet . after that he goes to king's Landing and do a marriage proposal to Cersey .

King's Landing :

Cersey is free from his judgement and recover's his position of Regent Queen and Marries Euron . Cersey start to plot a revenge agains averyone at the city .
The King´s Landing master armourer Tobho Mott knows the secret about Valiryan Steel from Qohor .
Cersey start to sacrifice children in order to forge more Valyrian Steel .

General thoughs :

I don't have Idea of what will happens to Sansa,Arya,Jaime and at meeren,Tyrion and Daenerys, but I think maybe is a possibility of Arys cross ways with Tyrion like said in the serie's leaked plans .


 

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9 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I look at the next book from the perspective that GRRM has to reduce the number of story lines he created in ADWD and AFFC.

As to Arya in Braavos and Bran in Bloodraven's cave - I see no problem here; GRRM will involve them in other story lines as he wishes. It should not be difficult: Bran does not have to move physically and Arya can get to Westeros within a week or so by ship.

Arya will probably return before too long.  The Mercy chapter seems to be paving the way for her leaving the FM.  As for Bran, I expect that he will in fact leave the cave - probably via the underground river, which could deposit him near the ocean or the Wall.(my guess is the gorge near the Shadow Tower)

9 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

As for the famous Mereen knot, it seems to me the easier part:

  • Once Daenerys reappears in Mereen, Barristan Selmy can disappear again as POV.
  • Tyrion is just outside the walls of Mereen, as is Victarion with his Iron fleet. All three parties can meet within a day, be it for negotiation, partnering up or battle.
  • Daenerys can be led back to Mereen easily; in my opinion no need to waste time on whatever she experiences with the Dothraki. She will probably fulfill the prophecy of going under the mountain in Vaes Dothrak, become leader of a big khalassar and return to Mereen. Could be told by Daenerys in retrospective, as GRRM has done so often. Less than a chapter needed for that.

I expect that Daenerys will spend at least 2 or 3 chapters with the Dothraki.  In the meantime, Tyrion will probably run things in Meereen, thus eliminating the need for Barristan and Victarion POVs.  GRRM has said that it will be late in the book before Dany and Tyrion meet.

9 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

The bigger issue I see is in Westeros. GRRM once promised that Howland Reed and Garland/Willas Tyrell would have a bigger role in TWOW. I cannot imagine that they would be given POV Status now, as it would open up further story lines (if that was GRRRM's intention anytime at all).

Really difficult will be to reduce the following story lines, be it by killing characters or by bringing them together to form one out of two separate story lines.

From North to South we have roughly eleven:

  • Castle Black (Jon Snow, Melisandre)
  • Skagos (Davos, Rickon)
  • crofter's village (Stannis, Asha, Theon)
  • Winterfell (Roose and Ramsay Bolton, Lord Manderly, Hosteen Frey, Mance Rayder)
  • Riverlands (Brienne, Jaime, Catelyn Stark)
  • The Vale (Sansa, Littlefinger)
  • Kings Landing (Cersei, Varys, Tommen, Sand Snakes)
  • Storm's End (Jon Connington, Aegon, Arianne)
  • The Reach (Euron Greyjoy, Aeron Damphair)
  • Oldtown (Samwell Tarly)
  • Dorne (Areo Hotah, Doran Martell. Myrcella Lannister, Darkstar, Obara Sand, Balon Swann)

Some of these story lines can be dealt with easily (e.g. Davos returning empty handed to Castle Black, Battle of Ice leaving one of the opposing armies destroyed). But it will be very hard to reduce them down to less than five.

The only way I see is a lot of dying characters; bringing people together and become friends is much more difficult here than in Mereen, due to travle distance and enmities.

Five story lines would be quite nice, given how sprawled out the story has gotten.

I expect the North story will coalesce at Winterfell, and Sansa will also wind up in the North after leaving the Vale.  Davos will likely end up at Hardhome and the Far North, and may not make it back south before the end of TWOW, but Jon, Stannis, Bran, and Sansa will all probably end up at Winterfell before the end of the book.

Storm's End will combine with Kings Landing.  KL is where the action is, and Arianne and Aegon will need to go there.  I also expect that the Reach and Oldtown will merge and might connect with either Dorne or KL.  Jaime and Brienne are also unlikely to stay permanently in the Riverlands, so I expect a merger with KL and/or Sansa's story.

So essentially, we will have eventually: the far North; the North; Kings Landing Oldtown/Dorne; and wherever Dany is (I think she will head to Westeros.)  Five stories,, with probably around 11 POVs by the end.

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