Lord Varys

Plot developments / expectations for The Winds of Winter

149 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

In the novels, kinslaying is a thing.  Ramsay murdering Roose and Walda would precipitate his downfall, not a rise to new power.

 

I understand that kinslaying is a thing. I also understand that Ramsay in the novels does not give a "F" about such things. In the novels he is highly suspected of killing his own brother, Dommeric.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the Battles of Ice and Fire will be no more than around 8 chapters total. 

Aegon will conquer Kings Landing leading to death of Cersei and Jaime. Tommen and Myrcella will die first and Jaime will kill Cersei to prevent Wildfire explosion and then perhaps kill himself. Aegon will be crowned King and marry Arianne. (Before that Aegon/JonCon will destroy Tyrell's army perhaps killing Macy and even Garlan)

Dany will get her Khalesar, return to Maureen, and then finish conquering/vandalizing the rest of Slavers' Bay - Volantis is heavily foreshadowed. Meets with Tyrion who will use info on Aegon to get her to trust him and name him as her advisor, and he will claim that Aegon is Brightblade/Bloodfyre and she will set on conquering Westeros and getting the "fake" off her throne. (There will be no proof either way on Aegon's truth and Tyrion will only have his suspicions and lots of embellishment)

Jon will spent couple of chapters in Ghost then get revived and will get involved in GNC or gets handled the results of it.

Something will happen during Vale Tournament, Sansa will not marry Harry the Heir

One way or another, Arya will return to Westeros by end of TWOW.

Bran discovers many mysteries about the Others, the Children, his father, and etc. He will leave the cave/tree

 

----------

Based on the whole setup and how much time and space GRRM and even D&D allocate to White Walkers, their invasion and defeat will be less than half or even a third of the final book. The whole politics and setup and mysteries are the ones that take space, resolution will be relatively short and simple. So if Dance of Dragons II will take about half a book, then the story could finish as planned in 7 books.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You are treating the story as if this 'two more books' thing is a given law and as if it makes sense that George would suddenly cut down all the plots he introduced in the last two books just to wrap up the story as quickly as he can. That's not going to happen.

For the time being, two books is still his stated goal.  I am coming around to the conclusion that it may require three, though.  

 

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The only reason to introduce Aegon, Euron, the Faith Militant, the Faceless Men and Iron Bank, Dorne, etc. is because those factions are going to play a big role in the story to come. If George had been aiming to reach the end after he was done with ASoS he would have just kept the Tyrells, Martells, Ironborn, etc. as featured extras. But that's clearly not the plan.

If all these are major players, then the next book is going to be so weighed down with characters and subplots that it is going to be difficult for it to make any headway at all.  Kind of what happened with AFFC/ADWD, come to think of it.  And while I more or les enjoyed those books, I have no desire to read AFFC/ADWD redux.  And I sure as hell don't want another Wheel of Time, which started off promisingly, and then got bogged down by so many characters and subplots that the plot slowed to a crawl.

At this point, I am more worried about the story being overwhelmed by too many stories and characters than I am about it being unnecessarily truncated.  You seem to acknowledge this with your comment in the OP that "I don't see the story progressing very far."  Well, I am tired of the story not progressing very far.  But, as noted above, I am coming around to the idea that three books may be necessary.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

About her story being in Westeros... there must be something first that makes her thinks so. Otherwise she will content with her march of conquest and her role of the tSwMtW and AA (by the red priests).

It is her home.   I expect Marwyn will come and set her straight.  If not, GRRM will find some way to get her to head west.  He's good at that sort of thing.

 

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Dany cannot go to Westeros unless she has an overwhelming military force that allows her to march West. You cannot simply board the ships 'somewhere' with an smallish khalasar. This means she needs getting the support of the whole Dothraki horde and practically every slave in Essos. 

In order to march west, she needs enough Dothraki to avoid other Dothraki messing with her.  I am guessing that she will get most of the Dothraki, though.  As far as Westeros goes, she simply needs to arrive with enough military forces to be a credible player.  She is going to need support from within Westeros in any case if she hopes to actually accomplish anything.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

There are already five twow chapters on Meeren and the battle is not even half a way. Five more is indeed a minimum to end the battle and describe its immediate aftermath. And then we need the politics.

That's more than we had for the Blackwater!  And that battle actually mattered for everybody in Westeros!  I am going to say 3 more to wrap it up.   Slaver's Bay is a diversion.  An important diversion, but a diversion nevertheless.  Westeros is where the action is.

I am coming around to the concept that Aegon is going to be more important than I initially stated.  Otherwise, I am going to stick to my guns.  40 chapters for the big 6, and 40 for everyone else.  Dany arrives in Westeros before the end, and the Others, at the very least, breach the wall before the end.  And not in the epilogue.  They need to be a real threat before then. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, Nevets said:

It is her home.   I expect Marwyn will come and set her straight.

No, her home is a house with a red door and a lemon tree outside her window, whatever that means.

Dany has never been in Westeros.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In general:

It would be work better if we kept detailed plot speculations to a minimum. The focus of this thread is supposed to be about how far the story is going to continue in TWoW, not so much the direction it is going to take.

In addition, I'd also prefer if we could keep the show out of it. Try to purge it out of your system if you have to. The books are definitely a much more complex and quite different story.

17 hours ago, Masha said:

I think the Battles of Ice and Fire will be no more than around 8 chapters total. 

That sounds way too optimistic to me. Keep in mind that we already have five chapters for the Battle of Fire (two Barristan chapters, two Tyrion chapters, one Victarion chapter) as well as one chapter for the Battle of Ice. And we know that the Volantenes are going to enter fray to, in Meereen, most likely after the original fighting is over.

The Battle of Ice is also apparently going to consist of multiple smaller battles - first the Freys vs. Stannis' men (and possibly Manderlys defecting to Stannis) and then later Stannis' people vs. the Bolton army (possibly under Ramsay) marching to the village (at one point the Karstark betrayal - or rather lack thereof - should be utilized by Stannis, presumably in the fight against the Bolton army). Then there will be the situation at Winterfell itself which will keep a sizable garrison, most likely loyal Bolton men, regardless how the battle(s) at the village end. They have to be dealt with as well if Stannis is supposed to take Winterfell.

Quote

Aegon will conquer Kings Landing leading to death of Cersei and Jaime. Tommen and Myrcella will die first and Jaime will kill Cersei to prevent Wildfire explosion and then perhaps kill himself. Aegon will be crowned King and marry Arianne. (Before that Aegon/JonCon will destroy Tyrell's army perhaps killing Macy and even Garlan)

That is a very unlikely scenario. Jaime isn't even in KL right now, and very unlikely to get there before Aegon does. Nor is he yet in the state of mind to actually kill Cersei. She actually has to do bad stuff for him to kill her. He no longer loves her the way he used to but she is still his sister. The fact that he didn't come to her aid doesn't mean he will actively kill her. At least not yet.

Jaime and Brienne have a story in the Riverlands ahead of them, a story that is not likely going to lead them to KL while King Tommen still rules there.

Quote

Based on the whole setup and how much time and space GRRM and even D&D allocate to White Walkers, their invasion and defeat will be less than half or even a third of the final book. The whole politics and setup and mysteries are the ones that take space, resolution will be relatively short and simple. So if Dance of Dragons II will take about half a book, then the story could finish as planned in 7 books.

That doesn't make any sense to me. The Others and winter are the main threat of this series. And that is going to be felt. The idea that the stupid War of the Five Kings is going to get more space than the War for the Dawn makes no sense at all. Only some factions fought in that war but all the surviving people of Westeros (and whoever migrates from Essos to Westeros in Dany's host) should fight against the Others.

That's the big deal, not the stupid politicking.

17 hours ago, Nevets said:

For the time being, two books is still his stated goal.  I am coming around to the conclusion that it may require three, though.  

Three certainly could work better than two. My earlier planning had TWoW as another bridge novel setting up the Second Dance by having Dany prepare to leave for Westeros, Aegon taking the Iron Throne, other factions joining him, etc. and then have book 7 be about the Second Dance, with the final two novels covering the War for the Dawn. That way the story could be wrapped up in a way it deserves to end.

Quote

If all these are major players, then the next book is going to be so weighed down with characters and subplots that it is going to be difficult for it to make any headway at all.  Kind of what happened with AFFC/ADWD, come to think of it.  And while I more or les enjoyed those books, I have no desire to read AFFC/ADWD redux.  And I sure as hell don't want another Wheel of Time, which started off promisingly, and then got bogged down by so many characters and subplots that the plot slowed to a crawl.

I tried TWoT last year via audiobook. The problem there isn't that subplots were slowing down the pace, it was that literally nothing happened for quite a few books. That began early on.

The story is now as broad as it is. It can only progress at a faster pace if it were the Starks vs. the Lannisters again, and we had only ten or so POVs. Those days are over (and honestly I'd like to have more POVs back in AGoT and ACoK because I find the story races along too quickly back then) and they are not coming back.

The problem is more with the size of a book - those 1,500 manuscript pages - not so much the actual pace. Two volumes the size of ASoS would get the story forward quite a little bit.

Edited by Lord Varys

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In general:

It would be work better if we kept detailed plot speculations to a minimum. The focus of this thread is supposed to be about how far the story is going to continue in TWoW, not so much the direction it is going to take.

TWOW predictions version 2.0

East Essos: The situation in Meereen is settled in the first half of TWOW.  The anti-slavery forces either win decisively, or lose decisively.  Either way, this frees Tyrion and Dany's allies to return to/leave for Westeros.  Meanwhile, Dany gathers the Dothraki, probably by overawing the dash khaleen.  My guess is they go overland and eventually meet up with Tyrion and company.  Arrival in Westeros at 60-80 % point of book.  Once Meereen is settled down, and the Dothraki are in hand, I see no reason for Daenerys to remain in East Essos.  Probably 20 chapters between Tyrion, Daenerys, Barristan, and Victarion.  

Others:  We get an early encounter with the Others at Hardhome through the POV of Davos (4-5 chapters).  The NW soon finds itself tested, although the Others don't make it south of the wall until relatively late in the book, although it is possible that they could invade much earlier.  If early, it will probably be a slow advance.  If late, more rapid.

Winterfell:  I'm guessing 3-5 chapters from Theon and Asha.  It will merge with Wall story

Wall:  Jon returns quickly; either only injured or resurrected quickly..  6-8 chapters with a couple from Mel.

Bran: Returns south of the Wall by the end of the book. 5 chapters

Sansa:  6 chapters

Arya: Leaves FM and Braavos at halfway point.  7 chapters

Aegon:  6 chapters through Arianne and JonCon,  Merges with KL, with Cersei having 5 chapters.

Jaime/Brienne:  6 chapters.  I expect this to eventually merge with one or both Stark girls

Sam: 5 chapters  

Areo Hotah and Aeron:  1-2 each

Jon returns to the living, Arya returns to Westeros, Daenerys arrives in Westeros, and the Others arrive south of the Wall.  I'm still predicting a consolidation of stories, and coalescing around the central characters (Starks, Jon, Dany, Tyrion)

Deaths:  Theon, Jaime or Cersei, Aegon (late), JonCon, Victarion, Aeron, Littlefinger.

Edited by Nevets

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The story is now as broad as it is. It can only progress at a faster pace if it were the Starks vs. the Lannisters again, and we had only ten or so POVs. Those days are over (and honestly I'd like to have more POVs back in AGoT and ACoK because I find the story races along too quickly back then) and they are not coming back

I actually like the earlier books the best.  I prefer the streamlined stories.  I found AFFC and ADWD to be too diffuse and slow-moving.  There were too many moving parts.  From reading the forums, that seems to be a fairly common complaint about them.  I do agree that the streamlined stories aren't coming back, but I don't want to see the bloat and slow pace of the last two books either

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, Winds are also words, so I am expecting a lot of speechy reveals such as:

Jon as Targ as not dead and savior of sorts

Sansa

Arya alive

Jeyne/fArya

Sandor

Rickon

Bran

Jeyne Westerling

Peter Creepyfinger being called out by Sweetrobin as the little bird sings his song

Dany flying back in with words and words of titles for herself

...and more...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Nevets said:

TWOW predictions version 2.0

[snip]

Others:  We get an early encounter with the Others at Hardhome through the POV of Davos (4-5 chapters).  The NW soon finds itself tested, although the Others don't make it south of the wall until relatively late in the book, although it is possible that they could invade much earlier.  If early, it will probably be a slow advance.  If late, more rapid.

[snip]

Wall:  Jon returns quickly; either only injured or resurrected quickly..  6-8 chapters with a couple from Mel.

Bran: Returns south of the Wall by the end of the book. 5 chapters

[snip]

At some point George said that the next book will take us farther north than ever before (I am too lazy too look up the SSM).

Which POV would go north?

I suppose the leading candidates are Jon or Bran since they are already there.

Bran could 'move' north through visions (he already did once) or Jon could move north inside Ghost (that's kind of what I would love to read).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think, realistically, the book could end with Dany's forces taking Dragonstone.  I don't think she will land in Westeros proper.  Nor will her war with Aegon be initiated by the end of Winds imo.  I don't think the Others will attack either.  

That's as far as I see the "main" plotline progressing in the next book. I think the 2nd Dance of the Dragons and the Long Night 2.0 will basically occur simultaneously in Dream (and the untitled 8th book Martin will inevitably need).  Most of Winds will be about wrapping up the Essos crap, and settling things in the North.   

As far as chapter distribution, I think Dany and Tyrion will lead the pack with 10+ each.

Those are my expectations at this point. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Amris said:

At some point George said that the next book will take us farther north than ever before (I am too lazy too look up the SSM).

Which POV would go north?

I suppose the leading candidates are Jon or Bran since they are already there.

Bran could 'move' north through visions (he already did once) or Jon could move north inside Ghost (that's kind of what I would love to read).

I think it will be Davos.  I think he will head north after Hardhome, probably something to do with Benjen.  I don't think either he or Rickon is going to be south of the wall for a while.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Nevets said:

I actually like the earlier books the best.  I prefer the streamlined stories.  I found AFFC and ADWD to be too diffuse and slow-moving.  There were too many moving parts.  From reading the forums, that seems to be a fairly common complaint about them.  I do agree that the streamlined stories aren't coming back, but I don't want to see the bloat and slow pace of the last two books either

I'd agree with you there about AFfC. That book essentially went nowhere with the other half missing. But my point was more about AGoT and ACoK more often than not feeling as if crucial pieces of the story are missing because there aren't enough POVs around. Brienne chapters set with Renly, a Robb POV in the West, or some Lannister POVs in AGoT could have made the story much more complex and interesting.

The fact that we have no clear picture that other factions might also have their own agendas back in AGoT makes things also too simple back in AGoT. Why are the Tyrells not at KL to watch Loras win the tourney and introduce Margaery to Robert? Where are all the Stormlords who should have been at court being Robert's old buddies? Why aren't Edmure and his friends at the tourney? Ned is his brother-in-law. And so on.

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

TWOW predictions version 2.0

East Essos: The situation in Meereen is settled in the first half of TWOW.  The anti-slavery forces either win decisively, or lose decisively.  Either way, this frees Tyrion and Dany's allies to return to/leave for Westeros.  

How is that going to happen? I honestly don't see that flowing naturally out of the narrative as it is structured right now. Daenerys' last word was that she wanted to be the Queen of Meereen. Aside from the Ironborn she still has no Westerosi troops/allies, and the backbone of her people still are freedmen, reformed Ghiscari and Essosi sellsword companies. Why the hell should they press anybody to go to Westeros?

Especially while Daenerys herself is still lost in the Dothraki Sea. They cannot know that she might be willing to leave upon her return to Slaver's Bay and thus wouldn't prepare to go. And, in fact, they would not want her to leave for Westeros in any case. 

The Volantene slaves are likely to press them to eventually to go to Volantis to free the slaves there, too, but that doesn't mean they have to continue to Westeros. They could also just conquer the other Free Cities and set up Daenerys as the empress of a rebuild Valyrian Empire.

Selmy and Tyrion might prefer them to go to Westeros eventually but they are not likely to insist on that while Dany hasn't returned to them.

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

Meanwhile, Dany gathers the Dothraki, probably by overawing the dash khaleen.  My guess is they go overland and eventually meet up with Tyrion and company.  Arrival in Westeros at 60-80 % point of book.  Once Meereen is settled down, and the Dothraki are in hand, I see no reason for Daenerys to remain in East Essos.  Probably 20 chapters between Tyrion, Daenerys, Barristan, and Victarion.

We are talking about vast distances here and George actually stating that Tyrion and Dany are not going to hook up all that soon makes such a scenario rather unlikely. Dany could fly back to Slaver's Bay on Drogon, but that would depend on how long it takes her to do whatever she is going to do with the Dothraki. It should take her months to travel to Vaes Dothrak with Jhaqo's khalasar, and all that time is going to have to pass in Slaver's Bay, too, without them having any knowledge about Daenerys.

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

Deaths:  Theon, Jaime or Cersei, Aegon (late), JonCon, Victarion, Aeron, Littlefinger.

That is far too optimistic. Hints are that Theon is not going to die in the coming battle, and if he lives through that there is no reason to believe he is going to die soon. After all, there are hints that Bran is trying to reach out to him, possibly in a positive, helping manner.

Jaime and Cersei don't seem to be goners soon. Jaime has his own complex story and might actually stick around until the fight against the Others. He is also not likely to kill Cersei soon considering that they are separated right now.

Aegon should live until Dany arrives in Westeros. Which isn't going to happen soon. Connington and Victarion could die, I think, but I'm not positive on Aeron dying and I'm pretty sure Littlefinger is also a man who is not going to be killed soon. He could even survive the Others only to be put down in the aftermath of the great war.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Battle of Ice is also apparently going to consists of multiple smaller battles - first the Freys vs. Stannis' men (and possibly Manderlys defecting to Stannis) and then later Stannis' people vs. the Bolton army (possibly under Ramsay) marching to the village (at one point the Karstark betrayal - or rather lack thereof - should be utilized by Stannis, presumably in the fight against the Bolton army). Then there will be the situation at Winterfell itself which will keep a sizable garrison, most likely loyal Bolton men, regardless how the battle(s) at the village end. They have to be dealt with as well if Stannis is supposed to take Winterfell.

This is an important point. Even if Stannis obtains an easy victory at the Crofter Village (big if), he is still sitting in the snow and whatever provisions the Freys brought are not more than a refreshment. He still needs to take Winterfell, which is a strong castle. So, all the speculations of Stannis faking his death to take the castle by guile, might be well true. How does actually happens, I've no idea. Do the Boltons return prematurely to Dreadfort? or Do they get smashed inside WF? Don't forget that something important is going to happens at the tree.*

I don't think that Stannis die there, because it's not the end of his arc. Stannis will try, and hard, to gain to loyalty of the northmen and may even succeed, but he will fail when faced with the threat of the Others and try to be AA, because he is not.

* It will be a sweet irony that Stannis wins the battle thanks to the 'old gods' and Jon is resurrected thanks to R'hllor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

This is an important point. Even if Stannis obtains an easy victory at the Crofter Village (big if), he is still sitting in the snow and whatever provisions the Freys brought are not more than a refreshment. He still needs to take Winterfell, which is a strong castle. So, all the speculations of Stannis faking his death to take the castle by guile, might be well true. How does actually happens, I've no idea. Do the Boltons return prematurely to Dreadfort? or Do they get smashed inside WF? Don't forget that something important is going to happens at the tree.*

I think the chances for Stannis winning a big victory at the village are essentially a given considering that he has a lot of great advantages on his side now. 

1. The Karstark betrayal has been adverted. It can be now used against Roose. The main reason why I felt the Pink Letter might be true before we got Theon 1 is because the Karstark betrayal could have easily broken Stannis' army had Arnolf been able to go through with it.

2. Stannis is now able to use the Dreadfort maester he has captured to lure the enemy into a trap. If we the multiple smaller battle scenario is true with the Freys coming first Stannis could have time enough to send a message to Winterfell claiming that Hosteen and the Karstarks smashed Stannis' host. If such a raven reached the castle before the Bolton army left then it should be exceedingly easy to lure the Bolton army into a trap. Especially if Ramsay is truly going to command it. The man has no experience as a battle commander. He should even suck even more at that job than Hosteen is going to.

3. Stannis hints at his plan to use the ground to their advantage. That most likely means he is going to lure the Frey heavy horse on the frozen lake where the majority of them should be drowned.

4. The Manderly knights are likely turn on the Freys or the Bolton army, too, with Hother's Umber men also not all that likely to stick to the Boltons.

But that's not going to deliver Winterfell to Stannis. They will have to get in there somehow. Roose could hold the castle against 2,000 men (or how many of Stannis' men are going to survive the fighting at the village) with just a few hundred very loyal and capable men. And he is not stupid enough to send out the men he can trust to die in the snow.

It will have to be done by betrayal or by using a secret entrance to the castle. Getting in clansmen in the garb of the Karstarks could work, I guess, also getting some of the Manderlys back into the castle (although I'm not sure Roose is going to allow any of them back in now that they are out).

But I also expect Bran to reveal his powers at the island before the battle, and possibly even relaying important information (like the existence of a secret entrance) to him. I also find it not unlikely that Bran himself might intervene on Stannis' side in the battle by using animals and possibly even the trees (there is Asha remembering the odd story about the ancient greenseers using trees in battles) to attack and confuse the Bolton men.

The First Men fighting against the Children might have had means and techniques to deal with this kind of thing but the present-day Northmen/Freys don't. Most of Roose's Northern allies would interpret such an event as a divine sign of the old gods siding with Stannis. One should assume that many men would then react more or less the same way a lot of Stannis' men reacted when they encountered Renly's ghost on the battlefield...

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I don't think that Stannis die there, because it's not the end of his arc. Stannis will try, and hard, to gain to loyalty of the northmen and may even succeed, but he will fail when faced with the threat of the Others and try to be AA, because he is not.

Indeed. He is supposed to be a false savior eventually doing more harm than good. As of yet he has only done good, however. He has saved the NW from Mance, and he is about to unite the North under his leadership, focusing the resources of the North on defending the Wall.

That's all pretty good stuff. Things have to go awry eventually, though. My best guess is that this will have to do with the different strategies people will come to deal with the Others. Whatever Mel and Stannis are going to do might inadvertently bring down the Wall or help the Others in some fashion. And that's then going directly to the Shireen sacrifice thing and his eventual demise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I think the chances for Stannis winning a big victory at the village are essentially a given considering that he has a lot of great advantages on his side now. 

1. The Karstark betrayal has been adverted. It can be now used against Roose. The main reason why I felt the Pink Letter might be true before we got Theon 1 is because the Karstark betrayal could have easily broken Stannis' army had Arnolf been able to go through with it.

2. Stannis is now able to use the Dreadfort maester he has captured to lure the enemy into a trap. If we the multiple smaller battle scenario is true with the Freys coming first Stannis could have time enough to send a message to Winterfell claiming that Hosteen and the Karstarks smashed Stannis' host. If such a raven reached the castle before the Bolton army left then it should be exceedingly easy to lure the Bolton army into a trap. Especially if Ramsay is truly going to command it. The man has no experience as a battle commander. He should even suck even more at that job than Hosteen is going to.

3. Stannis hints at his plan to use the ground to their advantage. That most likely means he is going to lure the Frey heavy horse on the frozen lake where the majority of them should be drowned.

4. The Manderly knights are likely turn on the Freys or the Bolton army, too, with Hother's Umber men also not all that likely to stick to the Boltons.

But that's not going to deliver Winterfell to Stannis. They will have to get in there somehow. Roose could hold the castle against 2,000 men (or how many of Stannis' men are going to survive the fighting at the village) with just a few hundred very loyal and capable men. And he is not stupid enough to send out the men he can trust to die in the snow.

It will have to be done by betrayal or by using a secret entrance to the castle. Getting in clansmen in the garb of the Karstarks could work, I guess, also getting some of the Manderlys back into the castle (although I'm not sure Roose is going to allow any of them back in now that they are out).

But I also expect Bran to reveal his powers at the island before the battle, and possibly even relaying important information (like the existence of a secret entrance) to him. I also find it not unlikely that Bran himself might intervene on Stannis' side in the battle by using animals and possibly even the trees (there is Asha remembering the odd story about the ancient greenseers using trees in battles) to attack and confuse the Bolton men.

The First Men fighting against the Children might have had means and techniques to deal with this kind of thing but the present-day Northmen/Freys don't. Most of Roose's Northern allies would interpret such an event as a divine sign of the old gods siding with Stannis. One should assume that many men would then react more or less the same way a lot of Stannis' men reacted when they encountered Renly's ghost on the battlefield...

Indeed. He is supposed to be a false savior eventually doing more harm than good. As of yet he has only done good, however. He has saved the NW from Mance, and he is about to unite the North under his leadership, focusing the resources of the North on defending the Wall.

That's all pretty good stuff. Things have to go awry eventually, though. My best guess is that this will have to do with the different strategies people will come to deal with the Others. Whatever Mel and Stannis are going to do might inadvertently bring down the Wall or help the Others in some fashion. And that's then going directly to the Shireen sacrifice thing and his eventual demise.

Considering that Aegon is apparently supposed to capture Storm's End by sneaking in under a false flag, I would find it quite unoriginal if Stannis uses the same trick with a Karstark banner to get into Winterfell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In general:

It would be work better if we kept detailed plot speculations to a minimum. The focus of this thread is supposed to be about how far the story is going to continue in TWoW, not so much the direction it is going to take.

 

That sounds way too optimistic to me. Keep in mind that we already have five chapters for the Battle of Fire (two Barristan chapters, two Tyrion chapters, one Victarion chapter) as well as one chapter for the Battle of Ice. And we know that the Volantenes are going to enter fray to, in Meereen, most likely after the original fighting is over.

The Battle of Ice is also apparently going to consist of multiple smaller battles - first the Freys vs. Stannis' men (and possibly Manderlys defecting to Stannis) and then later Stannis' people vs. the Bolton army (possibly under Ramsay) marching to the village (at one point the Karstark betrayal - or rather lack thereof - should be utilized by Stannis, presumably in the fight against the Bolton army). Then there will be the situation at Winterfell itself which will keep a sizable garrison, most likely loyal Bolton men, regardless how the battle(s) at the village end. They have to be dealt with as well if Stannis is supposed to take Winterfell.

 

My reasoning about initial Battles (Ice / Fire) length is the following: When GRRM released ADWD, he mentioned that he had about 100 pages left over, cut because of the length. We also know that these battles where among things that he cut from ADWD. So all these 2 battles have to fit in these pages, plus, he also mentioned (long long time ago) that almost all of sample chapters he released where done for ADWD including at least 2 or 3 Arianne chapters. So if you add released chapters for Arianne, Mercy, Alayne to battle related chapters of Theon, Asha, and Barristan plus Tyrion and calculate how many left of these 100 pages you get approximate number of chapters purely related to these two battles (and not from-afar rumors) - so its Asha/Theon for Battle of Ice and Barristan/Tyrion and most like Victarion for Battle of Fire. I am kind of bad in calculating how many chapters within pages alotted, but it all should fit in 100 pages

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a very unlikely scenario. Jaime isn't even in KL right now, and very unlikely to get there before Aegon does. Nor is he yet in the state of mind to actually kill Cersei. She actually has to do bad stuff for him to kill her. He no longer loves her the way he used to but she is still his sister. The fact that he didn't come to her aid doesn't mean he will actively kill her. At least not yet.

Jaime and Brienne have a story in the Riverlands ahead of them, a story that is not likely going to lead them to KL while King Tommen still rules there.

That doesn't make any sense to me. The Others and winter are the main threat of this series. And that is going to be felt. The idea that the stupid War of the Five Kings is going to get more space than the War for the Dawn makes no sense at all. Only some factions fought in that war but all the surviving people of Westeros (and whoever migrates from Essos to Westeros in Dany's host) should fight against the Others.

That's the big deal, not the stupid politicking.

Three certainly could work better than two. My earlier planning had TWoW as another bridge novel setting up the Second Dance by having Dany prepare to leave for Westeros, Aegon taking the Iron Throne, other factions joining him, etc. and then have book 7 be about the Second Dance, with the final two novels covering the War for the Dawn. That way the story could be wrapped up in a way it deserves to end.

I tried TWoT last year via audiobook. The problem there isn't that subplots were slowing down the pace, it was that literally nothing happened for quite a few books. That began early on.

The story is now as broad as it is. It can only progress at a faster pace if it were the Starks vs. the Lannisters again, and we had only ten or so POVs. Those days are over (and honestly I'd like to have more POVs back in AGoT and ACoK because I find the story races along too quickly back then) and they are not coming back.

The problem is more with the size of a book - those 1,500 manuscript pages - not so much the actual pace. Two volumes the size of ASoS would get the story forward quite a little bit.

1) Jaime/Cersei - you assume that King Tommen survives this book, I suspect that Lannister (other than Tyrion) part is pretty much over. First the kids go, forcing Jaime drop his dalliance with Brianne and hurry back to KL, plus Jaime WILL KILL to prevent Cersei from burning down KL.

2) The whole book is about stupid politicking. Its about deconstruction of basic fairy tale where all people drop their grievances against each other and ally together to overcome greater evil. ASOIAF is about this huge looming threat, and nobody notices it because everybody is too busy jockeying for the Throne. And it will be just like GRRM, to hype the BIG battle for the Dawn and then have it take about half a book or less. By the final battle, I mean time between the Wall falling and final defeat/stalemate/resolution

3) How many chapters directly dealt with the Others doing something? Other than Prologue, we have Jon/Sam chapters establishing the looming thread, then adding in Bran couple of chapters plus Voramir's chapters mostly establishing the background for eventual Jon warging Ghost after the death of his body, and maybe Jon chapters confirming that the Others hold all the lands beyond the Wall. Even Jon's chapters that should be all about the Others, are about politicking and governing with the Others' threat spread thinly throughout. For a looming threat, GRRM spends suspiciously too little time on the Others to think that he will not have a nice and short resolution to them.

4) While GRRM always says that he doesn't have a set plan for the books, I am sure that he already thought thru something as big as the Final Battle. And I hate to bring it up, but I have to for this - TV series. We know that GRRM and D&D claimed that GRRM gave them the ending.  And while they constrict the stories a lot, they still felt that all they have left for the series is 13 episodes including final battle and ending, and about 1/3 or even half of these episodes will be about Dany conquering Westeros. So basically, out 73 episodes, only about 7 to be dedicated to what happens after the Wall falls, less than 10% of all time alotted? That makes me think, that the length of that battle in the book, will be short as well.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Considering that Aegon is apparently supposed to capture Storm's End by sneaking in under a false flag, I would find it quite unoriginal if Stannis uses the same trick with a Karstark banner to get into Winterfell.

Well, there are only so much ways you can take a castle. Trying to storm Winterfell isn't an option. Not if Stannis is supposed to still have some men after the battle is over.

The idea of a secret entrance is also sort of problematic considering that Roose could easily enough keep 500-1,000 Bolton men inside. Presumably a secret entrance would be narrow and difficult to manage. If the gates frozen shut again then a few dozen men couldn't possible open the them to get Stannis' men inside, and they won't be able to get enough men inside unseen to overpower the garrison on their own.

37 minutes ago, Masha said:

My reasoning about initial Battles (Ice / Fire) length is the following: When GRRM released ADWD, he mentioned that he had about 100 pages left over, cut because of the length. We also know that these battles where among things that he cut from ADWD. So all these 2 battles have to fit in these pages, plus, he also mentioned (long long time ago) that almost all of sample chapters he released where done for ADWD including at least 2 or 3 Arianne chapters. So if you add released chapters for Arianne, Mercy, Alayne to battle related chapters of Theon, Asha, and Barristan plus Tyrion and calculate how many left of these 100 pages you get approximate number of chapters purely related to these two battles (and not from-afar rumors) - so its Asha/Theon for Battle of Ice and Barristan/Tyrion and most like Victarion for Battle of Fire. I am kind of bad in calculating how many chapters within pages alotted, but it all should fit in 100 pages.

That is pretty good reasoning. However, we don't know how much of the battles George intended to put into the book. Could have been another battle cliffhanger for some POV characters, or some twist at the end of the battle.

I doubt we would have gotten until the fighting at Winterfell or the arrival of the Volantenes in ADwD if the battle chapters had been included. What we already have about the Battle of Fire should pretty much approach 100 pages in print.

21 minutes ago, Masha said:

1) Jaime/Cersei - you assume that King Tommen survives this book, I suspect that Lannister (other than Tyrion) part is pretty much over. First the kids go, forcing Jaime drop his dalliance with Brianne and hurry back to KL, plus Jaime WILL KILL to prevent Cersei from burning down KL.

There is no reason to believe Cersei is going to try to burn KL down. She doesn't have the power to try something like that. Varys certainly has no interest in allowing Cersei to burn down Aegon's city and castle. And if there is anybody in KL knowing where there is still some wildfire it is Varys.

Tommen and Myrcella are likely to die but Cersei is not likely to go down with them. Not yet at least.

21 minutes ago, Masha said:

2) The whole book is about stupid politicking. Its about deconstruction of basic fairy tale where all people drop their grievances against each other and ally together to overcome greater evil. ASOIAF is about this huge looming threat, and nobody notices it because everybody is too busy jockeying for the Throne. And it will be just like GRRM, to hype the BIG battle for the Dawn and then have it take about half a book or less. By the final battle, I mean time between the Wall falling and final defeat/stalemate/resolution.

In half a book George couldn't build up a believable threat. The Others are not likely to have even reached Winterfell half a book after the fall of the Wall, let alone made it clear to the people down south that they even exist and intend to kill them. The problem with the Others is not going to resolve itself. And it is quite clear from his original outline that he intends to build up the Others as the big threat.

21 minutes ago, Masha said:

3) How many chapters directly dealt with the Others doing something? Other than Prologue, we have Jon/Sam chapters establishing the looming thread, then adding in Bran couple of chapters plus Voramir's chapters mostly establishing the background for eventual Jon warging Ghost after the death of his body, and maybe Jon chapters confirming that the Others hold all the lands beyond the Wall. Even Jon's chapters that should be all about the Others, are about politicking and governing with the Others' threat spread thinly throughout. For a looming threat, GRRM spends suspiciously too little time on the Others to think that he will not have a nice and short resolution to them.

That is a sign that George still has a lot to do in the department of the Others. He has to really build them up as a threat (which they right aren't, really) and he has to give us and the characters information on their nature, goals, origins, weaknesses, etc. That's going to take a lot of time, too.

As of yet the entire Wall plot from AGoT was prologue and filler. The entire conflict with the wildlings is just filler. He finally has to begin the main story.

21 minutes ago, Masha said:

4) While GRRM always says that he doesn't have a set plan for the books, I am sure that he already thought thru something as big as the Final Battle. And I hate to bring it up, but I have to for this - TV series. We know that GRRM and D&D claimed that GRRM gave them the ending.  And while they constrict the stories a lot, they still felt that all they have left for the series is 13 episodes including final battle and ending, and about 1/3 or even half of these episodes will be about Dany conquering Westeros. So basically, out 73 episodes, only about 7 to be dedicated to what happens after the Wall falls, less than 10% of all time alotted? That makes me think, that the length of that battle in the book, will be short as well.

Well, George certainly would have images of the ending, major plot points he is working towards. But that doesn't mean that he sees the road or can correctly assess how much pages it is going to take him to get there. He clearly isn't very good with that kind of thing.

The show runners want to finish this thing. They want to be done with it for quite some time. They will do it the way they see fit. The idea that George gave them his vision in detail and that they want to finish his way isn't all that likely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to believe Cersei is going to try to burn KL down. She doesn't have the power to try something like that. Varys certainly has no interest in allowing Cersei to burn down Aegon's city and castle. And if there is anybody in KL knowing where there is still some wildfire it is Varys.

Tommen and Myrcella are likely to die but Cersei is not likely to go down with them. Not yet at least.

In half a book George couldn't build up a believable threat. The Others are not likely to have even reached Winterfell half a book after the fall of the Wall, let alone made it clear to the people down south that they even exist and intend to kill them. The problem with the Others is not going to resolve itself. And it is quite clear from his original outline that he intends to build up the Others as the big threat.

That is a sign that George still has a lot to do in the department of the Others. He has to really build them up as a threat (which they right aren't, really) and he has to give us and the characters information on their nature, goals, origins, weaknesses, etc. That's going to take a lot of time, too.

As of yet the entire Wall plot from AGoT was prologue and filler. The entire conflict with the wildlings is just filler. He finally has to begin the main story.

Well, George certainly would have images of the ending, major plot points he is working towards. But that doesn't mean that he sees the road or can correctly assess how much pages it is going to take him to get there. He clearly isn't very good with that kind of thing.

The show runners want to finish this thing. They want to be done with it for quite some time. They will do it the way they see fit. The idea that George gave them his vision in detail and that they want to finish his way isn't all that likely.

Since Kevin dies, Cersei will start re-taking her power back. Who is going to stop her since she is back in Red Keep? She will have plans for Wildfire, its been heavily foreshadowed in AFFC, her burning the Hand's Tower and enjoying the view. (Plus Jaime's reaction as well). All she has to do is call the Alchemists and find out the locations of these caches. Varys can't really physically stop her from doing that, but he can make Jaime apprehensive and angry enough to make him stop her. 

This book has to end with Aegon triumphant, it means Cersei and her kids dead.

I am not sure about original outline relating to the Others, other than always looming and growing threat. It doesn't feel like GRRM plans to spend much time dealing the others after the Wall's fall. Not to say, it would not be a Big Deal, the devastation and impact and death will be enormous, but I just don't think the whole fight back thing will take too much time. Not to say, that by the time the Wall falls - most of superfluous contenders for the Iron Throne should be gone - Lannisters (other than Tyrion), fAegon/JonCon/Varys, Dornish, Stannis, Boltons, Greyjoys, Littlefinger. So by that time we'll have maybe couple of surviving POV's left and they'll take the story towards the end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Masha said:

Since Kevin dies, Cersei will start re-taking her power back. Who is going to stop her since she is back in Red Keep? She will have plans for Wildfire, its been heavily foreshadowed in AFFC, her burning the Hand's Tower and enjoying the view. (Plus Jaime's reaction as well). All she has to do is call the Alchemists and find out the locations of these caches. Varys can't really physically stop her from doing that, but he can make Jaime apprehensive and angry enough to make him stop her. 

Cersei could later return to KL at Euron's side. Then they could decide to burn KL to prevent Daenerys from taking the Iron Throne.

But we have no reason to actually believe Cersei burning down the Tower of the Hand is foreshadowing that she would try to pull an Aerys on KL later on. In fact, I never read that this way. I thought this kind of behavior was used as a plot device to help explain the estrangement between Cersei and Jaime. Jaime really is repulsed by this Aerys-like behavior despite it being still be pretty mild. Cersei doesn't burn people alive nor does she get aroused by watching people burn.

Cersei has no means to reclaim the Regency right now. She is the whore queen who has been chased naked through the streets. There are no Lannister soldiers in KL aside from a few Goldcloaks. Mace Tyrell has 30,000-40,000 men in the capital right now, and it is not likely that they go all away. Mace isn't likely to send all his men against Aegon. And one cannot really see how Cersei should even recruit one man to her cause now that she has been publicly disgraced. She still has Qyburn and Ser Robert, and she can kill a few people, but she can't regain power. To have power you have to inspire loyalty. Cersei can no longer do that. At least not in KL. Even the Lannister guardsmen are not likely to fight against the Tyrells who greatly outnumber them in her name. Assuming they even believe her that she did not kill Ser Kevan. The Lannister faction might blame Cersei for that as much as the Tyrell people will. Ser Kevan was the one who arranged her walk together with the High Septon.

Just now, Masha said:

This book has to end with Aegon triumphant, it means Cersei and her kids dead.

It could mean that. But it could also mean only Cersei's children are dead. And that she has fled the city back to Casterly Rock. She could even take one or both of her children with her. They, too, could die later. All Aegon needs to crown himself is KL and the Iron Throne.

Just now, Masha said:

I am not sure about original outline relating to the Others, other than always looming and growing threat. It doesn't feel like GRRM plans to spend much time dealing the others after the Wall's fall. Not to say, it would not be a Big Deal, the devastation and impact and death will be enormous, but I just don't think the whole fight back thing will take too much time. Not to say, that by the time the Wall falls - most of superfluous contenders for the Iron Throne should be gone - Lannisters (other than Tyrion), fAegon/JonCon/Varys, Dornish, Stannis, Boltons, Greyjoys, Littlefinger. So by that time we'll have maybe couple of surviving POV's left and they'll take the story towards the end.

It would depend what roles many characters are supposed to play during the final battle. Aegon could certainly play a role there. The same goes for Varys, Littlefinger, Jaime, various Greyjoys, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.