Plot developments / expectations for The Winds of Winter

[bent branch]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@bent branch

I agree with you that my arguments are essentially based on my expectations what would make the better story. However, I think we can make a very good case that AFfC/ADwD introduced a lot of new plots that a very likely either completely superfluous from hindsight if they are cut short by the attack of the Others. Instead we can be pretty sure that the stories of Aegon, Euron, the revenge against the Freys, the Faith Militant, Stannis and the Iron Bank, etc. would make much more sense if they would continue for the time being without the Others interfering with them.

The idea that the Others aren't necessarily corporeal doesn't seem to fit well with the fact that the Others are also using wightified animals as mounts. If they could just transform into mist they would have no need for physical mounts. One assumes that they make use of very powerful glamors to move around unseen.

I agree with you that there is a chance that the Others don't have to physically touch corpses they want to transform into wights but their magic certainly has to. And we have as of yet no reason to believe that every corpse north of the Wall can be raised by the Others. We just know that some/many of them have been raised. But I'm more inclined that they have to be rather close to them to pull that off. And perhaps they actually have to really touch them.

ADwD still doesn't indicate anything as devastating as the fall of the Wall. Yeah, the Others and wights are thought to eventually attack the NW, but nobody foresees or expects or entertains the notion that the Wall itself could be destroyed and the Others and wights march into the Seven Kingdoms. And I think that notion has to be properly introduced into the story before it can come to pass.

The idea that the Wall would suddenly fall in the first or second Mel chapter of TWoW is very unlikely. Especially in a series where a lot of stuff is actually usually explicitly foreshadowed in a lot of cases (Red Wedding, Purple Wedding, Jon's assassination, etc.).

Storylines are not superfluous just because they are cut short by the advent of the fall of the Wall. There stories tell of the path they took to that moment in time. GRRM said some of these stories didn't have to be told. I'm pretty sure he mentioned Dany as one of them. If GRRM had not written AFFC/ADWD Dany would have started the next installment with the Dothraki. He just brought her to where she needed to be. There were some characters in the story that we needed to know more about how they came to be where they were. So for some of the characters, it will be important how they came to be where they are at the beginning of TWOW. This does not mean they complete whatever path they were on. It means the path they took holds some greater importance to the path of the story. The actions they took and the people they met on their way to where they needed to be will send out ripples that will have a impact on course of the larger story. I don't know why this concept is so hard to grasp. Sometimes the important thing is not what happens next, but what happened before.

Let's look at the scene where we see an Other riding a horse (ASOS-Chapter 18):
 

Quote

 

...Sword slim it was, and milky white. Its armor rippled and shifted as it moved, and its feet did not break the crust of new-fallen snow.

...And then he was stumbling forward, falling more than running, really, closing his eyes and shoving the dagger blindly out before him with both hands. He heard a crack, like the sound ice makes when it breaks beneath a man's foot, and then a screech so shrill and sharp that he went staggering backward with his hands over his muffled ears, and fell hard on his arse.

When he opened his eyes the Other's armor was running down its legs in rivulets as pale blue blood hissed and steamed around the black dragonglass dagger in its throat. It reached down with two bone-white hands to pull out the knife, but where its fingers touched the obsidian they smoked.

Sam rolled onto his side, eyes wide as the Other shrank and puddled, dissolving away. In twenty heartbeats its flesh was gone, swirling away in a fine mist. Beneath were bones like milkglass, pale and shiny, and they were melting too. Finally only the dragonglass dagger remained, wreathed in steam as if it were alive and sweating.

 

Although your main take away from that scene was that the Other was riding a horse, there are many clues that the Other's physical state was something very different than a human's. Everything about the scene suggests that the Other was a being made of water, in its various states. The Other riding the horse was the least of the clues given. And riding the horse tells us nothing about the Other's physical state. Seriously, I think the fact the Other was riding a horse is a very weak argument against the Others having only one corporeal form.

I sincerely doubt the Others have to touch corpses to reanimate them. If they had to touch them, it would take forever to build an army of wights. Since the Others are far more deadly, I don't see why they would even bother with the wights if they had to reanimate them one by one.

It truly is fascinating to me that you think there needs to be more build up to the Wall falling. I strongly disagree that there needs to be more information on the Others before they attack. Why the hell do we need to know anything about them? Or are you talking about characters within the story? Jon already spent the entirety of ADWD collecting information and trying to prepare for the arrival of the Others. It would be incredibly repetitive to spend another book doing the same thing. ADWD set up the fall of the Wall through all of Jon's attempts as preparations. What is fascinating is that he was unable to convince people in the books of the urgency of the situation and it appears some readers were also left unconvinced of the urgency.

[bent branch]

15 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Thanks for your insightful answer, you make fair points,  but I need to agree with @Lord Varys here.

I'm not very versed in the history of asoiaf books, but even if GRRM did not intend to to write them, in the end he did. AFFC & ADWD set up such a strong groundwork for TWOW that it would be a waste not to harvest what is planted.

When I mean with narrative space is completing the stories left from Feast&Dance. It may sound an exaggeration but I cannot imagine the siege of KL by Aegon interrupted by the arrival of the Others and getting the whole GC wighted. 

Also, and this was also pointed out by Lord Varys, we haven't seen much of the Others in the last two books. Why should we fear them?

This bring another problem,  unless I'm missing something, I don't see enough groundwork yet to see the Wall failing, that's why I don't expect to see it before the end of the book, and maybe not even shortly after. Still an epilogue would make a lot of sense.

Notice I don't disagree with you regarding the Others interrupting the story. They certainly will.

I'm sorry I didn't see this before I answered Lord Varys' post. My answer to most of your comments would be the same.

The one thing I will say is that I don't think Aegon will siege KL. I think the HotU vision means that Aegon will be welcomed into KL.

[bent branch]

14 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That is the heart of my argument about the nature of the coming War. I have seen people talk about how the collapse of the Wall is going to destroy all the castles of the Night's Watch, and perhaps even flood the entire Gift. Like the collapsing Walls of Jericho. I don't see it that way.

I think when the Horn is blown, it will break the barrier spell inside the Wall. And it will probably create a breach. It isn't going to collapse the ENTIRE Wall. And at that moment, the Others will be able to raise wights in Oldtown. Or at least, they will be able to send their cold mist pouring into Westeros, to materialize anywhere in the South as soon as a mist can blow to that destination. So give it two weeks, maybe. Depending on how fast the cold wind can blow.

Anyway, we aren't going to see a battlefront that gradually retreats from the Wall, to the Last Hearth, to the Dreadfort, to Winterfell etc, as humanity falls back in one big wave. Nope. We are going to see corpse armies rise in King's Landing, in Highgarden, Lannisport and in Oldtown. Simultaneously.

So humanity will become a thousand flickers of light, holed up in their various castles from the Wall down to Sunspear, fighting the enveloping darkness and the armies of the dead. Everywhere. The need will be evident across Westeros. And that is what will eventualy unite the Realm under the Prince who Was promised, against the existential threat to all of humanity.

There are many different ways a natural (or supernatural) disaster can unfold. I see the Wall being breached like an earthquake and subsequent tsunami. While the fall of the Wall will be the originating disaster, the effects will wash quickly over all of Westeros. This will cause a leveling affect where it is no more dangerous to be in the North than anywhere else in Westeros. Under these circumstances, mounting an expedition to the Land of Always Winter makes all kinds of sense.

[Lord Varys]

58 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Storylines are not superfluous just because they are cut short by the advent of the fall of the Wall. There stories tell of the path they took to that moment in time. GRRM said some of these stories didn't have to be told. I'm pretty sure he mentioned Dany as one of them. If GRRM had not written AFFC/ADWD Dany would have started the next installment with the Dothraki. He just brought her to where she needed to be. There were some characters in the story that we needed to know more about how they came to be where they were. So for some of the characters, it will be important how they came to be where they are at the beginning of TWOW. This does not mean they complete whatever path they were on. It means the path they took holds some greater importance to the path of the story. The actions they took and the people they met on their way to where they needed to be will send out ripples that will have a impact on course of the larger story. I don't know why this concept is so hard to grasp. Sometimes the important thing is not what happens next, but what happened before.

I understand all that. I just don't think the Wall will fall while Dany is still hanging out in the Dothraki Sea. And I think it is pretty obvious that a lot of the stories that began in AFfC and ADwD are supposed to continue for quite some time until they are either cut short or naturally flow into the overall Others story. I expect some stories to end in an ultimate way the same way Robb's or Joffrey's story ended in ASoS. Not because of the Others but because some of the wars and conflicts are going to come to an end before the Others arrive.

We are pretty much on the same page here. The only difference is that I've a different view when exactly the Others are going to come.

And even if the Wall fell in the first half of TWoW it would take more than the remainder of the book for the people across the Realm to realize what had happened and to adjust their goals and agendas to 'survival' rather than political ambition.

58 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Although your main take away from that scene was that the Other was riding a horse, there are many clues that the Other's physical state was something very different than a human's. Everything about the scene suggests that the Other was a being made of water, in its various states. The Other riding the horse was the least of the clues given. And riding the horse tells us nothing about the Other's physical state. Seriously, I think the fact the Other was riding a horse is a very weak argument against the Others having only one corporeal form.

I do not doubt that the Others are magical creatures. That's pretty evident. But it is a rather common trope among 'elfish people' that they can walk on snow somehow despite the fact that they are physical creatures. That goes back to Legolas walking on snow back in LotR. But this doesn't mean that the Others are shape shifters or only partially corporeal. In fact, their close association with ice makes it no surprise that they can walk above snow. They essentially control it.

58 minutes ago, bent branch said:

I sincerely doubt the Others have to touch corpses to reanimate them. If they had to touch them, it would take forever to build an army of wights. Since the Others are far more deadly, I don't see why they would even bother with the wights if they had to reanimate them one by one.

Oh, 'touching' doesn't necessarily mean physical touch. Although that's what happened when the Others killed Ser Waymar Royce. It could also mean 'magical touch'. Say, take Tormund's son who died of the cold and then rose as a wight. The metaphor Gared uses in the Prologue of the cold creeping inside you and making you like the fact that you freeze to death right now could be a hint that what brings the wights back is the part of the overall cold/ice spells the Others to bring about winter and death. Creatures that died of natural causes or were killed violently could also be claimed by the cold, of course, if they are subjected to it.

Now, that could also mean, I think, that once the Wall is out of the way and all of Westeros has been engulfed by the worst winter ever this could also mean that the dead down in the South might rise, too. But it also might mean the Others have to be physically closer to the corpses they want to resurrect or that they can only spread a wight spell over, say, a few square leagues or so, meaning they cannot rise the dead everywhere.

58 minutes ago, bent branch said:

It truly is fascinating to me that you think there needs to be more build up to the Wall falling. I strongly disagree that there needs to be more information on the Others before they attack. Why the hell do we need to know anything about them? Or are you talking about characters within the story? Jon already spent the entirety of ADWD collecting information and trying to prepare for the arrival of the Others. It would be incredibly repetitive to spend another book doing the same thing. ADWD set up the fall of the Wall through all of Jon's attempts as preparations. What is fascinating is that he was unable to convince people in the books of the urgency of the situation and it appears some readers were also left unconvinced of the urgency.

No, I'm talking about actual information about the Others as characters. As of yet nobody has any idea who they are and what they want for what reason. That has to change. The plot has to be explained to us and the characters in the story. Insofar as the Others and any chance of defeating them is concerned there has yet to be a 'Council of Elrond'-like scene. We haven't gotten that yet. We don't know what or who the promised prince is, why that's important, and what the prophecy actually says about that guy. We don't know how this relates to the Others (if it relates to them at all).

While it is imaginable that the Others are essentially going to bring down the Wall off-screen, with our POVs never even realizing what they are doing until it is too late I must say that this would be a very boring story. There would be much more suspense if the Others were visibly at the gates of the NW with a large wight army, probing their defenses and challenging them. At the same time our heroes have actually time to be afraid, think desperately about countermeasures, etc.

[rotting sea cow]

On 1/23/2017 at 1:21 PM, bent branch said:

Storylines are not superfluous just because they are cut short by the advent of the fall of the Wall.

Sure, but it doesn't mean that everything is going to be unfinished because of that. Just think that Dany story in Essos is far from over. We already have five chapters on the battle of Meeren and we are not even in the middle of it. Then we have Stannis related chapters, Dorne, Oldtown, etc. All of them are not going to be interrupted yet by the fall of the Wall. Otherwise humanity will fail. And there a fixed number of pages you can squeeze in a book.

 

On 1/23/2017 at 1:21 PM, bent branch said:

There stories tell of the path they took to that moment in time. GRRM said some of these stories didn't have to be told. I'm pretty sure he mentioned Dany as one of them. If GRRM had not written AFFC/ADWD Dany would have started the next installment with the Dothraki.

The thing is he wrote in the these stories and I'm very grateful for that. ADWD is my favorite book particularly because it contains profound themes. Plotwise you could have even avoided Quentyn chapters altogether and get the dragons free using other means, but Quentyn story is much more than that. Same with Davos or Theon.

I really hope that GRRM doesn't sacrifice all these delicious details and interesting themes to advance in the plot and get the series done.

 

On 1/23/2017 at 1:21 PM, bent branch said:

He just brought her to where she needed to be. There were some characters in the story that we needed to know more about how they came to be where they were. So for some of the characters, it will be important how they came to be where they are at the beginning of TWOW. This does not mean they complete whatever path they were on. It means the path they took holds some greater importance to the path of the story. The actions they took and the people they met on their way to where they needed to be will send out ripples that will have a impact on course of the larger story. I don't know why this concept is so hard to grasp. Sometimes the important thing is not what happens next, but what happened before.

I understand what you mean, but I don't see that the characters are in position yet both, geographically or thematically. For example, I cannot see the Wall falling whilst Stannis is besieging WF. I can totally see after that when trying to deal with the complicated politics of the North. Same as @Lord Varys said. The Others invasion can shortcut the allegedly Dance 2.0, which still seems quite far away in the story.

On 1/23/2017 at 1:21 PM, bent branch said:

I sincerely doubt the Others have to touch corpses to reanimate them. If they had to touch them, it would take forever to build an army of wights. Since the Others are far more deadly, I don't see why they would even bother with the wights if they had to reanimate them one by one.

Well, probably there aren't too many Others and wights are cheap.

On 1/23/2017 at 1:21 PM, bent branch said:

It truly is fascinating to me that you think there needs to be more build up to the Wall falling. I strongly disagree that there needs to be more information on the Others before they attack. Why the hell do we need to know anything about them?

Because we need to fear them. It is an existential threat and we have barely seen it. Granted, some of it can happen after the fall of the Wall. 

And also please, tumbling the Wall is an event of more importance than the birth of dragons. It may fall offscreen, but I find necessary some build up.

On 1/23/2017 at 1:21 PM, bent branch said:

Or are you talking about characters within the story? Jon already spent the entirety of ADWD collecting information and trying to prepare for the arrival of the Others. It would be incredibly repetitive to spend another book doing the same thing. ADWD set up the fall of the Wall through all of Jon's attempts as preparations. What is fascinating is that he was unable to convince people in the books of the urgency of the situation and it appears some readers were also left unconvinced of the urgency.

Jon doesn't even imagine that the Wall can fail, he is preoccupied in trying to man the Wall and save the people beyond it. He thinks he understands the threat of the Others, same with Stannis. But things are going to be much worse than in their darker dreams.

[Lord Varys]

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Sure, but it doesn't mean that everything is going to be unfinished because of that. Just think that Dany story in Essos is far from over. We already have five chapters on the battle of Meeren and we are not even in the middle of it. Then we have Stannis related chapters, Dorne, Oldtown, etc. All of them are not going to be interrupted yet by the fall of the Wall. Otherwise humanity will fail. And there a fixed number of pages you can squeeze in a book.

Exactly. Even if George wants to get to the ending the amount of stories he has to tell right now doesn't allow him to make a lot of progress in each book simply because he has to tell so many stories. 

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I really hope that GRRM doesn't sacrifice all these delicious details and interesting themes to advance in the plot and get the series done.

He most definitely will not. Else he would not have introduced all those themes in the last two books. He could have made AFfC and ADwD about the beginning of the war against the Others. But he clearly did not do that.

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I understand what you mean, but I don't see that the characters are in position yet both, geographically or thematically. For example, I cannot see the Wall falling whilst Stannis is besieging WF. I can totally see after that when trying to deal with the complicated politics of the North. Same as @Lord Varys said. The Others invasion can shortcut the allegedly Dance 2.0, which still seems quite far away in the story.

It is. And, hell, there is a pretty good chance that the Second Dance might not just be a war for the control of Westeros but also a war fought about the question who has the right (means) to try to save mankind. Stannis already knows about the Others. Aegon might learn about the threat, too. Samwell at the Citadel knows. Dany and Tyrion most definitely will learn about the threat, too, before they arrive in Westeros (from Marwyn and possibly even from Quaithe).

George has set up this whole 'who is the promised prince/savior thing' and when winter sets in and things become really desperate (without the Others even making a direct move yet) the question who might 'defeat winter' might become an important religious/metaphysical issue without the ice demons figuring into it all that much. But the question about the various savior prophecies and traditions also has to be addressed and discussed by knowledgeable people at one point. We don't even have a full prophecy nor a good picture what the promised prince and the dragon heads are supposed to do or how they are supposed to do it. They can't even try to do whatever the hell they are supposed to do unless they know what it is (unless we assume they all become heroes by accident).

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, probably there aren't too many Others and wights are cheap.

The Others clearly protect themselves and their lives by having the wights fight for them. Depending on the size of their wight armies later in the story it should become all but impossible to actually defeat them in battle. If they are smart they will hide from the enemy if they have the means to destroy them and just send in wave after wave of wights. 

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Because we need to fear them. It is an existential threat and we have barely seen it. Granted, some of it can happen after the fall of the Wall.

It could, but we would be all very surprised if the Wall suddenly fell without announcement early on in TWoW. There was no buildup for this whatsoever.

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

And also please, tumbling the Wall is an event of more importance than the birth of dragons. It may fall offscreen, but I find necessary some build up.

Yeah, there was foreshadowing for the birth of the dragons, the Red Wedding, the Purple Wedding, Jon's assassination, Aegon's existence, and so on. Yet there is no hint whatsoever in the books as of yet that the Wall will fall. Okay, there is the talk of the Horn of Winter but we don't know whether it actually exists, who has it right now, or whether the Others know about it and would use it.

And presumably some characters have to get such real hints in preparation of some people who happen to be at the Wall right now (or be there in the future) to actually survive the fall of the Wall. If the Horn of Winter brings down the Wall via an earthquake then everybody in the castles south of the Wall should die because such an earthquake would not likely only bring down the Wall on top of them but also crash the castles themselves (if they are not hit by the ice) killing everybody living there.

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Jon doesn't even imagine that the Wall can fail, he is preoccupied in trying to man the Wall and save the people beyond it. He thinks he understands the threat of the Others, same with Stannis. But things are going to be much worse than in their darker dreams.

Indeed. Nobody in the books thinks or fears the Wall could fall, not even the wildlings do (they tried to hide behind the Wall, remember) but if the Others are an existential threat to all humanity the Wall has to fall. Else they won't become such an existential threat. We as readers know that but it is actually very realistic for the characters in the story to consider the huge ice wall as basically indestructible. Not to mention that it most definitely is the best spot where one could try to intercept, challenge, and stop/defeat the Others. That is the purpose of the Wall, after all.

Thus it is not strange to expect our heroes to actually be challenged by the Others at the Wall. Perhaps there will even be some fighting between the Others/wights and the good guys before the Others figure out a way to actually destroy the Wall.

Not to mention that there is still the possibility that the Others simply circumvent the Wall via the Gorge and the Bridge of Skulls. The wights should be able to get through/over that, and there is also the chance that they capture the Cotter Pyke's ships (or build themselves some rafts) and sent hundreds of wights past the Wall that way. Not to mention, you know, that the wight armies could just circumvent the Wall by marching to the Wall and then taking a swim/waddling through water near Eastwatch. Pyke's letter in ADwD strongly suggests that the Others can sent wights into the sea/make marine creatures into wights, too.

[No one is here]

On 1/23/2017 at 6:38 AM, bent branch said:

There are many different ways a natural (or supernatural) disaster can unfold. I see the Wall being breached like an earthquake and subsequent tsunami. While the fall of the Wall will be the originating disaster, the effects will wash quickly over all of Westeros. This will cause a leveling affect where it is no more dangerous to be in the North than anywhere else in Westeros. Under these circumstances, mounting an expedition to the Land of Always Winter makes all kinds of sense.

First of all, this is a great thread!  Many thanks to all! 

Ass kissing done!

I think that the battle of fire has almost already been told in the sample chapters.  If you go back and read them, what else needs to happen that cannot be told in 2 or 3 chapters?  My speculation is that Dany, Iron Fleet, Dothraki and company will sail west around halfway through the book.  That would wrap up the Slavers Bay plot.  But, not necessarily the Essos plot.  What I mean is that Dany & Co will start west, but won't make it to Westeros until towards the end of the book.  There are still a couple stories to be told in Essos (Tattered Prince/Pentos is one I am interested in).

I think that Aegon is the real deal, and that Tarly will open KL to him after Mace is defeated at SE fairly early in the book.  I believe that Tarly is still loyal to the Targs.  From there it feels that most of the Aegon story line will be politicking because he has a lot of bridges to build.  I also believe that the story Arya over heard in her sample chapter about Cersi being in power is a total red herring by GRRM because it just doesn't seem to fit.  It could be that the information that she was over hearing was outdated (I would need to re-read to be sure).  I think the KL plot will linger throughout the book.

I am one that believes that Jon will be resurrected (choose your method) early in the book and possibly even have a role in the battle for Winterfell.  It is possible that the Winterfell & Wall plots begin to merge towards the end of the book because I don't think the Others attack until either the final POV chapter or in the epilogue.  As others here have said, this part of the plot still needs building.  Although, I LOVE the idea of an expedition to the Lands of Always Winter.  Unfortunately, having been reading these books for a long time, I think this will probably happen in aDoS.  But this HAS to happen.

As for Arya, I think she will hear about Winterfell being retaken and/or of Jon Snow's death and resurrection while in Braavos, and that is what will motivate her to go back home to join the fight.  It is hard to tell when since her plot is so far removed from the rest of the story.

Sansa, for me, is a wild card.  But, I do think that by the end of the book, she will either be back in Winterfell or en route.  She is not my favorite, so I don't really give a damn about her, UNLESS she is the person to off LF.  I just don't see that happening because she is finally in a safe place.  She might not trust LF, but she doesn't seem motivated to kill him neither.

This is about all I can guess.  I have some theories of what Euron is up to, but I'm still trying to fit it all together.

 

[Jenny of Dorne]

A great thread!

Regarding the OP merit, I think it is very important to consider not only when things will take place (as to their occurence early/late in the book and the number of related chapters), but also where. It is interrelated. There are distances which need to be overcome in order for some things to take place (e.g. Dany physically getting to Westeros if she is to win the IT). What I am talking about is that if we change our way of thinking about where, we might come upon a new when.

A case in point:

The Others invasion may not happen in the form of a sweeping motion from north to south which is sort of to be expected. Also, I believe that the northmen will be essential in fighting the Others (as they are tough and brave and used to the cold and there is still some collective memory of how to defeat the Others in the North as opposed to the South), so they should not be all dead when the final battle comes. What if the Others "skip" the vast and already decimated North and go on south to do whatever they intend to do (destroy all humanity probably)? I can totally see fights with wights happening at other places than in the North, even an Others invasion from the (frozen) sea.

On 22. 1. 2017 at 11:09 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Anyway, we aren't going to see a battlefront that gradually retreats from the Wall, to the Last Hearth, to the Dreadfort, to Winterfell etc, as humanity falls back in one big wave. Nope. We are going to see corpse armies rise in King's Landing, in Highgarden, Lannisport and in Oldtown. Simultaneously.

So humanity will become a thousand flickers of light, holed up in their various castles from the Wall down to Sunspear, fighting the enveloping darkness and the armies of the dead. Everywhere. The need will be evident across Westeros. And that is what will eventualy unite the Realm under the Prince who Was promised, against the existential threat to all of humanity

Regarding this, I think it is implied that the Others do not have much power over places which are not cold enough. Of course, it seems like they bring the cold, but I strongly believe they would/will have a harder time in places which are naturally warmer. So I cannot see a corpse army rising simultaneously in KL, Oldtown and Lannisport unless the full winter, not just the first snows, arrives there first. To sum up, the Others invasion south might be slowed down by the slower pace of winter there. It all depends on when the Wall will be breached but I do not see a proper Others invasion which would really threaten to destroy the Seven Kingdoms earlier than ADOS.

My other five cents:

Does the Second Dance of the Dragons necessarily happen in Westeros? Depending on who we think will participate, it could also mean "only" a (series of) dragon battle(s) between Dany and Euron in Essos or somewhere on the sea. It would make it possible to happen quite early, before Dany arrives to Westeros.

Will or will not Dany go to destroy Qarth first after uniting her new khalasar? (To reach the west, you must go east.) If she does not, I think her returning to Mereen can be very fast and maybe even in time for the battle, we do not know how her timeline relates to Mereen's. That should make her moving on to Westeros faster as well.

 

Btw, IMHO, if the ultimate plan of Varys was enthroning fAegon and only fAegon, not for the sake of the realm but because of their blood relation or whatever, wouldn't he imply it to the dying Kevan? It seemed to me at the ADWD epilogue that he was really coming clean.

[rotting sea cow]

On 1/29/2017 at 7:36 PM, Jenny of Dorne said:

Will or will not Dany go to destroy Qarth first after uniting her new khalasar? (To reach the west, you must go east.) If she does not, I think her returning to Mereen can be very fast and maybe even in time for the battle, we do not know how her timeline relates to Mereen's. That should make her moving on to Westeros faster as well.

I'm very split about this. Thematically, It would make a lot of sense to go to Qarth first. But from a timeline perspective, it may be difficult to pull it out. It might be there will be some jumps in the timeline and many things can be described very quickly.

GRRM uses a lot of space in character development and piece alignment (plot in ADWD is basically that, spiced with existentialist questions), but as I argued at the beginning of this thread, the Battle of Meeren is using a lot of narrative space. Maybe too much.

[Lord Varys]

On 8.2.2017 at 9:56 PM, rotting sea cow said:

I'm very split about this. Thematically, It would make a lot of sense to go to Qarth first. But from a timeline perspective, it may be difficult to pull it out. It might be there will be some jumps in the timeline and many things can be described very quickly.

Jumps in the time line would be a very unusual and thus unlikely feature. However, Dany is now a dragonrider. We don't need to get three chapter of her traveling through the Dothraki Sea and the Red Waste to get to Qarth. She could just deploy a khalasar to Qarth and then take Drogon there to command her people for the actual destruction of the city. I'd not be surprised if it turned out that she would command Jhaqo's khalasar to go there, to prove his loyalty. She and her people had to do through the Red Waste, too.

A possible outcome could be that Dany then takes the ships she might capture at Qarth (those of all the three guilds) to get the Dothraki to Slaver's Bay (while other khalasars would have been given the order to ride against the other Free Cities/join her people at Vaes Dothrak).

But it would still take quite some time, especially if she is going to unite all the Dothraki at Vaes Dothrak. That means she has to get all the Dothraki. Could be that many are already on the way but it is unlikely that all of them are already there (suggested by the news about the khalasars in the West we got early on in ADwD). That is going to take some time, too.

George doesn't have to cover all the travels, of course, but he cannot give us a ten chapters covering only a few days for a bunch of POVs and then jump ahead in Dany's story, skipping a journey that has to have lasted weeks, if not months. That way you cannot tell a story.

He could resolve that thing if the guys at Slaver's Bay continue to do some conquests of their own (Yunkai, New Ghis, the other cities in the Ghiscari region) and we skipped ahead in time some weeks after they have been some war machines, have marched to Yunkai, taken the fleet to New Ghis, and so on.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Jumps in the time line would be a very unusual and thus unlikely feature. However, Dany is now a dragonrider. We don't need to get three chapter of her traveling through the Dothraki Sea and the Red Waste to get to Qarth. She could just deploy a khalasar to Qarth and then take Drogon there to command her people for the actual destruction of the city. I'd not be surprised if it turned out that she would command Jhaqo's khalasar to go there, to prove his loyalty. She and her people had to do through the Red Waste, too.

A possible outcome could be that Dany then takes the ships she might capture at Qarth (those of all the three guilds) to get the Dothraki to Slaver's Bay (while other khalasars would have been given the order to ride against the other Free Cities/join her people at Vaes Dothrak).

But it would still take quite some time, especially if she is going to unite all the Dothraki at Vaes Dothrak. That means she has to get all the Dothraki. Could be that many are already on the way but it is unlikely that all of them are already there (suggested by the news about the khalasars in the West we got early on in ADwD). That is going to take some time, too.

George doesn't have to cover all the travels, of course, but he cannot give us a ten chapters covering only a few days for a bunch of POVs and then jump ahead in Dany's story, skipping a journey that has to have lasted weeks, if not months. That way you cannot tell a story.

He could resolve that thing if the guys at Slaver's Bay continue to do some conquests of their own (Yunkai, New Ghis, the other cities in the Ghiscari region) and we skipped ahead in time some weeks after they have been some war machines, have marched to Yunkai, taken the fleet to New Ghis, and so on.

I cannot help but feel that the above is akin to trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. It is all based on the desire to see Daenerys conquer most of Essos, while that is totally irrelevant to the Westerosi plot and a mere diversion from her intended destination. So in order to fit it in, you are forced to either extend the series substantially, or imagine solutions like jumping forward over parts of the narrative creating a less flowing plot.

Why not have her head straight back to Meereen, defeat the Slavers, and use the Meereneese ships, Ironfleet and captured Volantene fleets to sail off to Westeros. The Volantene slave uprising can then be a stop along the way to replenish her forces and use it as a staging point for the invasion of Westeros.

Why the need to include Qarth and the other Free Cities in a pointless side plot?

[Lord Varys]

18 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I cannot help but feel that the above is akin to trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. It is all based on the desire to see Daenerys conquer most of Essos, while that is totally irrelevant to the Westerosi plot and a mere diversion from her intended destination. So in order to fit it in, you are forced to either extend the series substantially, or imagine solutions like jumping forward over parts of the narrative creating a less flowing plot.

I actually don't like that scenario very much. But I base my arguments on the facts we have, most notably that Dany and Tyrion are not going to hook up soon and that 

Spoiler

Dany is going to unite all the Dothraki as per the show. That is one of those general themes I think the show actually draw from George's plans for the books.

I never expected such a development. I thought one Dothraki khalasar - Jhaqo's - would be enough and that she is going to take that khalasar at once to Meereen. But that seems to be pretty wrong, especially in light of the whole dosh khaleen vision we got in the House of the Undying. I thought that was a glimpse back in time to Dany's original cleansing ritual during her pregnancy but that doesn't seem to be the case now.

But if you think about the amount of stuff that might still happen in Westeros before Dany arrives there and before the Others make there move it is very likely that we are going to see Dany and her people conquer vast lands in Essos on their way to Westeros. The Dothraki can easily and quickly take all the Free Cities in her name. At least all of them which are reachable by land.

18 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Why not have her head straight back to Meereen, defeat the Slavers, and use the Meereneese ships, Ironfleet and captured Volantene fleets to sail off to Westeros. The Volantene slave uprising can then be a stop along the way to replenish her forces and use it as a staging point for the invasion of Westeros.

See above.

18 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Why the need to include Qarth and the other Free Cities in a pointless side plot?

See above. In addition, Qarth and Xaro were reintroduced as players in ADwD. One expects some closure there, especially since she wants to end the slave trade. You have to destroy it utterly and completely to have any success there, from Qarth to Pentos.

[Túrin the Turambar]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

...

See above. In addition, Qarth and Xaro were reintroduced as players in ADwD. One expects some closure there, especially since she wants to end the slave trade. You have to destroy it utterly and completely to have any success there, from Qarth to Pentos.

TBH, I also don't think that Dany will conquer Qarth.

First, it is not of strategic value on her way to Westeros.
Second, Qarth would be quite difficult to defeat: even if she can besiege the city from land and by sea (placing her forces around the city will take months) - it will also cost her months, maybe longer, before the city falls. and: I don't think that she could possibly maintain a siege for so long - she wouldn't have the supplies. but she has to besiege it, because she cannot destroy such a vast city like Qarth from dragonback alone. and we don't have any clues that there would be the possibility of a slave revolt (other than in Volantis - later more on that).

Her alleged aim to end the slave trade completely IMO does not weigh up these two points. Furthermore, in her last chapter in ADWD she turns to "fire and blood" and rejects her peaceful side - and maybe also her determination concerning the slave trade. So I think that her aim to finally conquer Westeros is much stronger now and she will not be distracted by a long mission to Qarth, which would also lead to heavy losses.

my thoughts on Dany's TWOW-plot:
She will get the support of several khalasars in Vaes Dothrak (this fulfils the "to go forward you have to go back"-prophesy). Then, depending on the information she has on the battle for Meereen, she either takes them to Meereen and then turns to Volantis, or she sends her khalasar directly to Volantis, flys on dragonback to Meereen and then sails to Volants with her remaining strength - using the Volantene fleet after an upraising of the oar slaves (mark the words of the Widow on the Waterfront).
so she takes Volantis - and then Pentos. there she kills Illyrio (Tyrion informed her on "Aegon" and Illyrio's and Varys' plotting) and hands the city over to the Tattered Prince.
Then she sets sail towards Dragonstone.

and that's the end of TWOW. IMO that's quite enough for one book - even without a trip to Qarth.

[Lord Varys]

29 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

TBH, I also don't think that Dany will conquer Qarth.

First, it is not of strategic value on her way to Westeros.

That is true, but Dany doesn't want to go to Westeros right now. She has yet to make that decision. And Vaes Dothrak/the Dothraki Sea are not exactly the places where she is going to make those decision. Why should she go to Westeros if she can have the real world?

29 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

Second, Qarth would be quite difficult to defeat: even if she can besiege the city from land and by sea (placing her forces around the city will take months) - it will also cost her months, maybe longer, before the city falls. and: I don't think that she could possibly maintain a siege for so long - she wouldn't have the supplies. but she has to besiege it, because she cannot destroy such a vast city like Qarth from dragonback alone. and we don't have any clues that there would be the possibility of a slave revolt (other than in Volantis - later more on that).

The Qartheen are milkmen. The Dothraki will storm the city, never mind the losses. If Dany unites the khalasars she will have millions of followers and tens of thousands (or even hundreds of thousands) of mounted warriors. She doesn't have to be cautious. She can see thousands of her men dead on the battlefield.

And a good portion of the Qartheen navy is in Slaver's Bay right now.

29 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

Her alleged aim to end the slave trade completely IMO does not weigh up these two points. Furthermore, in her last chapter in ADWD she turns to "fire and blood" and rejects her peaceful side - and maybe also her determination concerning the slave trade. So I think that her aim to finally conquer Westeros is much stronger now and she will not be distracted by a long mission to Qarth, which would also lead to heavy losses.

She buries her political means and peaceful approaches, but there is no hint she is intending to rush (or even go) to Westeros now. Why should she? Because some iron chair is waiting for her? She goes back into the Dothraki Sea.

29 minutes ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

She will get the support of several khalasars in Vaes Dothrak (this fulfils the "to go forward you have to go back"-prophesy). Then, depending on the information she has on the battle for Meereen, she either takes them to Meereen and then turns to Volantis, or she sends her khalasar directly to Volantis, flys on dragonback to Meereen and then sails to Volants with her remaining strength - using the Volantene fleet after an upraising of the oar slaves (mark the words of the Widow on the Waterfront).
so she takes Volantis - and then Pentos. there she kills Illyrio (Tyrion informed her on "Aegon" and Illyrio's and Varys' plotting) and hands the city over to the Tattered Prince.
Then she sets sail towards Dragonstone.

That is far too much plot for her story in TWoW. She should have at least 4-5 chapters to get the support of the Dothraki. They won't behave like robots or Dany sycophants just because she shows up there. Those are vast distances you are talking about here. How many chapters do you think Dany will get?

Illyrio is most likely not going to stay in Pentos for long. He has said he is going to join the gang and that he will. Aegon is going to sit the Iron Throne long before Dany will be even close to Pentos.

[rotting sea cow]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Jumps in the time line would be a very unusual and thus unlikely feature.

Ok, let's me explain better.

It makes totally sense for Dany going to Qarth, no discussions here. However, GRRM has two constrains regarding an eventual visit. One is the timeline that it's basically set by the events in Westeros, e.g.  how long does it take for Aegon to conquest KL, how long is his reign expected to last, when the Wall falls, etc. The other is narrative space, how many pages can be fit a book and more importantly how many pages GRRM is willing to write about it.

Even if Dany is flying in Drogon airlines, her khalasar doesn't and will take first a lot of time in collecting it and a lot of time to head them to Qarth, regardless of how many pages GRRM is willing to write about it. This could make her arrival in Westeros problematic to time, because she needs to head west again nevertheless. She needs to arrive at the "right" time.

On the other hand, if GRRM wants to economize narrative space, it will inevitable lead to jumps in the time line. E.g. it's not clear how long was Dany in the little 'dragonstone', her last ADWD chapter is focused in events occurring in less than two days. A little jump in the timeline. There are many other examples in the books.

 

Quote

George doesn't have to cover all the travels, of course, but he cannot give us a ten chapters covering only a few days for a bunch of POVs and then jump ahead in Dany's story, skipping a journey that has to have lasted weeks, if not months. That way you cannot tell a story.

Well, we don't make that decision. As much as we enjoy it, writing five bloody chapters from three different PoVs covering half of a morning of a battle that hasn't even properly started is somewhat excessive.

[rotting sea cow]

4 hours ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

TBH, I also don't think that Dany will conquer Qarth.

First, it is not of strategic value on her way to Westeros.
Second, Qarth would be quite difficult to defeat: even if she can besiege the city from land and by sea (placing her forces around the city will take months) - it will also cost her months, maybe longer, before the city falls. and: I don't think that she could possibly maintain a siege for so long - she wouldn't have the supplies. but she has to besiege it, because she cannot destroy such a vast city like Qarth from dragonback alone. and we don't have any clues that there would be the possibility of a slave revolt (other than in Volantis - later more on that).

Her alleged aim to end the slave trade completely IMO does not weigh up these two points. Furthermore, in her last chapter in ADWD she turns to "fire and blood" and rejects her peaceful side - and maybe also her determination concerning the slave trade. So I think that her aim to finally conquer Westeros is much stronger now and she will not be distracted by a long mission to Qarth, which would also lead to heavy losses.

my thoughts on Dany's TWOW-plot:
She will get the support of several khalasars in Vaes Dothrak (this fulfils the "to go forward you have to go back"-prophesy). Then, depending on the information she has on the battle for Meereen, she either takes them to Meereen and then turns to Volantis, or she sends her khalasar directly to Volantis, flys on dragonback to Meereen and then sails to Volants with her remaining strength - using the Volantene fleet after an upraising of the oar slaves (mark the words of the Widow on the Waterfront).
so she takes Volantis - and then Pentos. there she kills Illyrio (Tyrion informed her on "Aegon" and Illyrio's and Varys' plotting) and hands the city over to the Tattered Prince.
Then she sets sail towards Dragonstone.

and that's the end of TWOW. IMO that's quite enough for one book - even without a trip to Qarth.

The main problem here is always the assumption that Dany's story is in Westeros. We know that, but she - as character - doesn't. She has been in Essos her whole life and she is more Dothraki than Westerosi. Something (aka Aegon) will make her to turn from her fire-and-blood crusade through Essos and make her go to Westeros.

Vaes Dothrak will be very important for Dany, it's more than collecting some khalasars to fight for her in Westeros. It's her ascension to the next level, her proclamation as Khal of Khals, the Stallion Who Mounts the World. For the Dothraki she will become a religious-political symbol and she will need also to respond to these expectations. She also needs that the Dothraki change some cultural parameters. That will be hard. One possibility is to give them something that no Khal has been able to accomplish: Qarth, a city that remains undefeated by the Dothraki, because the Dothraki have never been able to attack it. The milk men are victorious over the Dothraki, for the unique reason that the later have been never able to mount an assault. A Khal on dragon back can change that.

As I stated above, I'm worry about the timeline issues that such conquest east could introduce and whether GRRM is willing to write about such campaign. On the other hand, a march of conquest west towards the Free Cities is - in  my view - inevitable.

[Nevets]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is true, but Dany doesn't want to go to Westeros right now. She has yet to make that decision. And Vaes Dothrak/the Dothraki Sea are not exactly the places where she is going to make those decision. Why should she go to Westeros if she can have the real world?

 

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

The main problem here is always the assumption that Dany's story is in Westeros. We know that, but she - as character - doesn't. She has been in Essos her whole life and she is more Dothraki than Westerosi. Something (aka Aegon) will make her to turn from her fire-and-blood crusade through Essos and make her go to Westeros.

She has been focused on returning to Westeros since at least the House of the Undying.   The whole business with the Unsullied at Astapor was about getting an army in furtherance of that goal.  When she decides to remain in Meereen, she says, "How can I rule seven kingdoms if I cannot rule even one city?"  This indicates that her true focus is still Westeros.  She has only been in Meereen for a few months (6-8), so I doubt that her goals have changed drastically.

Qarth is in the wrong direction and has nothing to offer, as far as I know, so I see no reason whatever to go there.  I anticipate that she will gain the support of the Dothraki, which will likely take about 4-5 chapters, and then move west across the Dothraki Sea, in a reverse of her journey with Khal Drogo.  Meantime, Tyrion, Barristan, and her other allies will either stabilize, or lose, Meereen.  Once that situation is resolved, they will head west, probably aboard the Ironborn fleet, and join up with Daenerys somewhere in the Free Cities.  From there, it is a short hop across the Narrow sea to Westeros.  I expect her arrival somewhere in the final third of the book, but not at the very end.   

[Túrin the Turambar]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

The main problem here is always the assumption that Dany's story is in Westeros. We know that, but she - as character - doesn't. She has been in Essos her whole life and she is more Dothraki than Westerosi. Something (aka Aegon) will make her to turn from her fire-and-blood crusade through Essos and make her go to Westeros.

Vaes Dothrak will be very important for Dany, it's more than collecting some khalasars to fight for her in Westeros. It's her ascension to the next level, her proclamation as Khal of Khals, the Stallion Who Mounts the World. For the Dothraki she will become a religious-political symbol and she will need also to respond to these expectations. She also needs that the Dothraki change some cultural parameters. That will be hard. One possibility is to give them something that no Khal has been able to accomplish: Qarth, a city that remains undefeated by the Dothraki, because the Dothraki have never been able to attack it. The milk men are victorious over the Dothraki, for the unique reason that the later have been never able to mount an assault. A Khal on dragon back can change that.

As I stated above, I'm worry about the timeline issues that such conquest east could introduce and whether GRRM is willing to write about such campaign. On the other hand, a march of conquest west towards the Free Cities is - in  my view - inevitable.

Tyrion will bring the news about Aegon to Dany - IMO this will push her towards Westeros.

I think that the Dothraki will follow Dany because she rides Drogon - the stallion who mounts the world. we saw the effect of the hatching of the dragons on the remnants of her khalasar in AGOT - a grown Drogon, on which she can ride, will have an even greater effect - IMO this will be enough to bind them to her will.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is true, but Dany doesn't want to go to Westeros right now. She has yet to make that decision. And Vaes Dothrak/the Dothraki Sea are not exactly the places where she is going to make those decision. Why should she go to Westeros if she can have the real world?

The Qartheen are milkmen. The Dothraki will storm the city, never mind the losses. If Dany unites the khalasars she will have millions of followers and tens of thousands (or even hundreds of thousands) of mounted warriors. She doesn't have to be cautious. She can see thousands of her men dead on the battlefield.

And a good portion of the Qartheen navy is in Slaver's Bay right now.

She buries her political means and peaceful approaches, but there is no hint she is intending to rush (or even go) to Westeros now. Why should she? Because some iron chair is waiting for her? She goes back into the Dothraki Sea.

That is far too much plot for her story in TWoW. She should have at least 4-5 chapters to get the support of the Dothraki. They won't behave like robots or Dany sycophants just because she shows up there. Those are vast distances you are talking about here. How many chapters do you think Dany will get?

Illyrio is most likely not going to stay in Pentos for long. He has said he is going to join the gang and that he will. Aegon is going to sit the Iron Throne long before Dany will be even close to Pentos.

AFAIK the Dothraki have no experience in siegecraft - so I highly doubt that they could "storm the city" with its triple walls. IIRC only 12 or so ships are currently in Slaver's Bay - I think that's only a small part of the Qartheen fleet. and when Dany sends her khalasar to Qarth, she also needs a fleet to block the way by sea - otherwise a siege would be completely pointless.

I think the climax of her anti-slavery campaign will be in Volantis - this is highly anticipated in ADWD - we saw this city from 3 POVs. and every one of them pointed out the slave situation. plus: we have the Widow of the Waterfront, who also hinted an upcoming slave revolt. all this points to Volantis. Qarth is too remote.

and I think that it would also be possible to fit in into the timeline. Dany's trip to Vaes Dothrak might happen at the same time as the Battle of Fire. on her way to Meereen she gets news about it --> she immediately sends the khalasar to Volantis by land and flys to Meereen and takes her army to Volantis by sea.

I think Dany could get 8 or so chapters - this should suffice to bring her to the Narrow Sea.
(EDIT: maybe she has even less, because then we will have Tyrion as a second POV on her side - Victarion and Barristan are of course dead by then)

In the 2nd half of TWOW Aegon will get the Throne and marry Arianne - so they might have 1-2 chapters in peace before the receive news that Dany is on her way. And: I don't see a reason why Illyrio would go to Westeros immediately.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Ok, let's me explain better.

It makes totally sense for Dany going to Qarth, no discussions here. However, GRRM has two constrains regarding an eventual visit. One is the timeline that it's basically set by the events in Westeros, e.g.  how long does it take for Aegon to conquest KL, how long is his reign expected to last, when the Wall falls, etc. The other is narrative space, how many pages can be fit a book and more importantly how many pages GRRM is willing to write about it.

That is true. But I think the stories in Westeros can be both very entertaining and detailed. Aegon and Arianne, Varys and Illyrio (upon their reunion in KL) with Connington in the mix. The whole Tyrell-Cersei confrontation that's brewing, and then a lot of Euron, Riverlands (Jaime and Brienne), and the situation at the Wall. The story isn't going to progress all that far. Aegon's story might only end with his coronation at the very end of TWoW.

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Even if Dany is flying in Drogon airlines, her khalasar doesn't and will take first a lot of time in collecting it and a lot of time to head them to Qarth, regardless of how many pages GRRM is willing to write about it. This could make her arrival in Westeros problematic to time, because she needs to head west again nevertheless. She needs to arrive at the "right" time.

That could be resolved if Dany first subdues Jhaqo's khalasar before she unites all the Dothraki under her rule. Then she could sent them against Qarth at an earlier point in time to prove their worth to her. That way she spends some time in Vaes Dothrak only to take Drogon down south to see what happened to them after she has consolidated her power.

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

On the other hand, if GRRM wants to economize narrative space, it will inevitable lead to jumps in the time line. E.g. it's not clear how long was Dany in the little 'dragonstone', her last ADWD chapter is focused in events occurring in less than two days. A little jump in the timeline. There are many other examples in the books.

Sure, but those are not often that big.

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, we don't make that decision. As much as we enjoy it, writing five bloody chapters from three different PoVs covering half of a morning of a battle that hasn't even properly started is somewhat excessive.

It is building up tension. I like that.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

She has been focused on returning to Westeros since at least the House of the Undying. The whole business with the Unsullied at Astapor was about getting an army in furtherance of that goal.  When she decides to remain in Meereen, she says, "How can I rule seven kingdoms if I cannot rule even one city?"  This indicates that her true focus is still Westeros.  She has only been in Meereen for a few months (6-8), so I doubt that her goals have changed drastically.

Sure, she wants to get there eventually. But now she has taken on the cause of freeing the slaves. She cannot (and will not) abandon them. And she can only succeed there if she destroys all the slavers with fire and blood, beginning with the Dothraki. Their slaver days will be over she is done with them, presumably.

Daenerys has no reason to rush to Westeros. She could go there in five or ten years right now. Somebody/something has to convince her to hurry.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Qarth is in the wrong direction and has nothing to offer, as far as I know, so I see no reason whatever to go there.  I anticipate that she will gain the support of the Dothraki, which will likely take about 4-5 chapters, and then move west across the Dothraki Sea, in a reverse of her journey with Khal Drogo.  Meantime, Tyrion, Barristan, and her other allies will either stabilize, or lose, Meereen.  Once that situation is resolved, they will head west, probably aboard the Ironborn fleet, and join up with Daenerys somewhere in the Free Cities.  From there, it is a short hop across the Narrow sea to Westeros.  I expect her arrival somewhere in the final third of the book, but not at the very end.   

So you think Dany will have, what, ten chapters? In light of the fact that there are so many POVs now it is more likely going to be more like 7-8. That's not going to get her to the Free Cities. Not unless George is rushing things and treating people that should be characters like extras.

1 hour ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

Tyrion will bring the news about Aegon to Dany - IMO this will push her towards Westeros.

Tyrion is not going to meet Dany early on in TWoW. George has already sort of confirmed that. Their stories will connect eventually.

1 hour ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

I think that the Dothraki will follow Dany because she rides Drogon - the stallion who mounts the world. we saw the effect of the hatching of the dragons on the remnants of her khalasar in AGOT - a grown Drogon, on which she can ride, will have an even greater effect - IMO this will be enough to bind them to her will.

It certainly will have an effect, but it is not going to make them all bow down to her. There will be opposition to her absolute leadership because she is a woman and a khaleesi who refused to go back to Vaes Dothrak.

1 hour ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

AFAIK the Dothraki have no experience in siegecraft - so I highly doubt that they could "storm the city" with its triple walls. IIRC only 12 or so ships are currently in Slaver's Bay - I think that's only a small part of the Qartheen fleet. and when Dany sends her khalasar to Qarth, she also needs a fleet to block the way by sea - otherwise a siege would be completely pointless.

The Dothraki have destroyed all the cities of the Sarnori save for one, and they also threatened Qohor and destroyed colonies of the Ibbenese. They can storm cities, and they know how to besiege them. They usually don't do that kind of thing but they can, if they want to.

1 hour ago, Túrin the Turambar said:

I think the climax of her anti-slavery campaign will be in Volantis - this is highly anticipated in ADWD - we saw this city from 3 POVs. and every one of them pointed out the slave situation. plus: we have the Widow of the Waterfront, who also hinted an upcoming slave revolt. all this points to Volantis. Qarth is too remote.

Volantis will fall, too. But it will not necessarily be her first target. 

[rotting sea cow]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is true. But I think the stories in Westeros can be both very entertaining and detailed. Aegon and Arianne, Varys and Illyrio (upon their reunion in KL) with Connington in the mix. The whole Tyrell-Cersei confrontation that's brewing, and then a lot of Euron, Riverlands (Jaime and Brienne), and the situation at the Wall. The story isn't going to progress all that far. Aegon's story might only end with his coronation at the very end of TWoW.

That could be resolved if Dany first subdues Jhaqo's khalasar before she unites all the Dothraki under her rule. Then she could sent them against Qarth at an earlier point in time to prove their worth to her. That way she spends some time in Vaes Dothrak only to take Drogon down south to see what happened to them after she has consolidated her power.

Jhaqo cannot take Qarth, no more than any other khal before him. This is why Qarth is so interesting for the Khal of khals (see my other post above). The Dothraki despise the milkmen but cannot afford a campaign against them because the Red Waste lies in between, because the city walls are strong and the camel cavalry is also fearsome. Dany can change that, but she needs to go herself with a khalasar. She can scout on dragon back for pasture and water and break the defenders. But this will take time, not only narrative space.

A longer timeline has however some advantages. It allows the dragons to grow larger and more fearsome. It allows Massey to find the sellswords for Stannis. It allows the later to organize the North better, including intervening the NW, taking Dreadfort and Mount Calin or to Jon to mount an expedition to Hardhome. It gives more time for the fulfillment of Maggy's prophesies regarding Cersei. Etc.

It would also mean that Aegon will need more time to take KL and possibly he will enjoy a longer reign. None of these scenarios can be excluded.

Bigger issues are the governance of Meeren. Even if they get a big victory against the slavers, the politics afterwards will be complicated. It also means that after burning Oldtown, Euron will do something else, not wage war against KL, or not immediately, It means that the Wall cannot fall yet, otherwise it will risk Dany and her dragons arriving "too late". A longer timeline also introduces complications for the arcs of Jaime, Brienne, Sansa and maybe others. Because they have to do something in between.