Lord Varys

Plot developments / expectations for The Winds of Winter

149 posts in this topic

8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

A jump in time? What do you mean that GRRM doesn't write them? Chapter 52 of ADWD Dany jumps on the back of Drogon and flies away. We don't see Dany again until Chapter 71. In that chapter enough time has passed for Dany's hands to have experienced some healing. We're talking about weeks. How was this not a time jump? There is no reason to show periods of time where nothing of importance happens (like an uneventful journey to Vaes Dothrak).

Sure, there are some such time jumps in the series (Theon springs to mind) but I must say I really don't like that. The time jump you mention here in relation to Dany happened within a book. That would be possible in TWoW, too, of course, but that would then mean we would, most likely, only get the first Dany chapter around the page 500 or so, because a lot of stuff is going to happen before that, not just in Slaver's Bay but everywhere else. George cannot continue Dany's story early on in the book if he is only going to continue her story after she has arrived in Vaes Dothrak.

I'm with you that he is not going to cover her entire journey to Vaes Dothrak, of course, but I think we'll get a chapter covering the events after she met Jhaqo, and then another about the actual journey to Vaes Dothrak. Else there would be pretty much no Dany in the first half of the book.

8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Why would Dany not return to Meereen as soon as she was able? Had Dany not decided to return to Meereen before she met the Dothraki?

She turned her back on Meereen when she decided to accept her destiny and go back to the Dothraki. We don't know what she wants to do now. There is a pretty good chance that she will return to them eventually but this is not her priority now. She has new priorities.

8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

It is guaranteed that Dany did not go to Vaes Dothrak as a prisoner, Drogon was right there. Those Dothraki would be unable to take Drogon and they would be unable to take Dany while Drogon was there. Also, Dany left her allies in an untenable position in Meereen. She knows that. After all she gave Jhogo, Daario, Groleo and Hero as hostages. Why would Dany go gallivanting around Essos under these circumstances?

Because vision Jorah and vision Viserys helped her to change her mind. What Jhaqo is going to do to her now is also unclear. Drogon is powerful but he is not all that large yet. A rain of arrows driven by dragonbone bows could easily enough destroy his wings and then a few score of warriors could easily slay him. Dragons are not immortal.

But that's not what I expect to happen. I think they will reach some sort of compromise and Dany clearly wanted to be found by the Dothraki and intends to go to Vaes Dothrak. Jhaqo is going to take her, whether he will mistreat her.

8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Dany has no need to go to Qarth. If a man across the street yells out to you, "Come over here! I'm going to kick your ass!" do you cross the street and make it easy for him? No. You say, "If you want me come over here and get me." Similarly, if Qarth declares war on Dany, they are going to have to go after her. It makes no sense for Dany to go to them and make it easy for them. Also, story wise, we know one of the parties that have an issue with Dany (the warlocks), have already left to track her down. GRRM has no need story wise to send Dany to Qarth.

If Dany intends to end slavery in Essos (west of Yi Ti) she has to deal with Qarth, too. The Qartheen already declared war on her and if they are not destroyed they can rebuild the slaver cities after she has gone west. Dany has embraced fire and blood now, and one assumes that doesn't mean you allow enemies who could potentially get dangerous to live.

And only Pyat Pree and some buddies left Qarth, the other warlocks are still there. As is Xaro, his merchant buddies, and the Pureborn. They all declared war on her and they have to pay the price for that. As have all the other cities who joined the Yunkish Allies - Yunkai itself, New Ghis, Tolos, etc.

8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Yeah, I'm still going with intersect meaning they meet earlier in the story.

Well, if Tyrion becomes a dragonrider he could take his dragon out into the Dothraki Sea to fly to Vaes Dothrak and go look for her there. She does not have to return to them for him to meet her in such a fashion.

If we assume Tyrion is told (by Barristan Selmy) that he could be Dany's half-brother (as I think he will) and he is taking the fact that he became a dragonrider as confirmation that this might actually be the case then he might discover enough brotherly feelings for Daenerys to actually go look for her - rather than declare her dead and take command of all her forces to conquer Westeros in his own name as 'Tyrion Targaryen' or Tyrion Truefyre or whatever fancy name he might give himself as a Targaryen bastard.

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On ‎2‎/‎25‎/‎2017 at 4:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, there are some such time jumps in the series (Theon springs to mind) but I must say I really don't like that. The time jump you mention here in relation to Dany happened within a book. That would be possible in TWoW, too, of course, but that would then mean we would, most likely, only get the first Dany chapter around the page 500 or so, because a lot of stuff is going to happen before that, not just in Slaver's Bay but everywhere else. George cannot continue Dany's story early on in the book if he is only going to continue her story after she has arrived in Vaes Dothrak.

I'm with you that he is not going to cover her entire journey to Vaes Dothrak, of course, but I think we'll get a chapter covering the events after she met Jhaqo, and then another about the actual journey to Vaes Dothrak. Else there would be pretty much no Dany in the first half of the book.

She turned her back on Meereen when she decided to accept her destiny and go back to the Dothraki. We don't know what she wants to do now. There is a pretty good chance that she will return to them eventually but this is not her priority now. She has new priorities.

Because vision Jorah and vision Viserys helped her to change her mind. What Jhaqo is going to do to her now is also unclear. Drogon is powerful but he is not all that large yet. A rain of arrows driven by dragonbone bows could easily enough destroy his wings and then a few score of warriors could easily slay him. Dragons are not immortal.

But that's not what I expect to happen. I think they will reach some sort of compromise and Dany clearly wanted to be found by the Dothraki and intends to go to Vaes Dothrak. Jhaqo is going to take her, whether he will mistreat her.

If Dany intends to end slavery in Essos (west of Yi Ti) she has to deal with Qarth, too. The Qartheen already declared war on her and if they are not destroyed they can rebuild the slaver cities after she has gone west. Dany has embraced fire and blood now, and one assumes that doesn't mean you allow enemies who could potentially get dangerous to live.

And only Pyat Pree and some buddies left Qarth, the other warlocks are still there. As is Xaro, his merchant buddies, and the Pureborn. They all declared war on her and they have to pay the price for that. As have all the other cities who joined the Yunkish Allies - Yunkai itself, New Ghis, Tolos, etc.

Well, if Tyrion becomes a dragonrider he could take his dragon out into the Dothraki Sea to fly to Vaes Dothrak and go look for her there. She does not have to return to them for him to meet her in such a fashion.

If we assume Tyrion is told (by Barristan Selmy) that he could be Dany's half-brother (as I think he will) and he is taking the fact that he became a dragonrider as confirmation that this might actually be the case then he might discover enough brotherly feelings for Daenerys to actually go look for her - rather than declare her dead and take command of all her forces to conquer Westeros in his own name as 'Tyrion Targaryen' or Tyrion Truefyre or whatever fancy name he might give himself as a Targaryen bastard.

I really disagree about the time jump thing. It was originally GRRM's intention to jump over five whole years (or all of autumn). The only reason GRRM didn't do that is because it didn't work structurally for the story. What is most interesting is that it looks like the first chapter for Arya will be the first chapter he wrote for Arya before he decided he needed to write AFFC/ADWD. In other words, the story looks to be ending up at the exact same place he always intended it to. So, GRRM does do time jumps if he can.

I went back and re-read Dany's chapters in ADWD and I disagree with you about Dany choosing to abandon Meereen and embrace the Dothraki. What Dany decided was that she wasn't going to take the path of peace anymore. It wasn't getting her what she wanted and it wasn't who she really was. But everyone that Dany cares about is in Meereen. She will return there as soon as she can.

I think you are underestimating the amount of chaos Drogon can bring to the Dothraki. You fail to consider that Dothraki men oil their hair, ride on animals that are afraid of both dragons and fire, and are riding through a sea of drying grass. Drogon breathes fire once in the direction of the group of 50 and the ones that end up on fire going careening out of control starting secondary fires all around them. Any discipline would break down quickly.

The Qartheen are already allies of the Yunkai. Their ships are barricading both the bay and the river. They have also sent ground troops. Why won't defeating them at Meereen be enough? You talked about the decisions that Dany was making and they were to return to Westeros, not run around Essos taking her revenge on everyone who had slighted her.

 

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1 hour ago, bent branch said:

I really disagree about the time jump thing. It was originally GRRM's intention to jump over five whole years (or all of autumn). The only reason GRRM didn't do that is because it didn't work structurally for the story. What is most interesting is that it looks like the first chapter for Arya will be the first chapter he wrote for Arya before he decided he needed to write AFFC/ADWD. In other words, the story looks to be ending up at the exact same place he always intended it to. So, GRRM does do time jumps if he can.

But he scrapped that.

Structurally a novel where we are only going to see one of the main characters at around half of the book is not going to be a good book. And it will also not make for a very good story if uniting all the Dothraki under her power is going to be too easy.

1 hour ago, bent branch said:

I went back and re-read Dany's chapters in ADWD and I disagree with you about Dany choosing to abandon Meereen and embrace the Dothraki. What Dany decided was that she wasn't going to take the path of peace anymore. It wasn't getting her what she wanted and it wasn't who she really was. But everyone that Dany cares about is in Meereen. She will return there as soon as she can.

Will she? That's an open question as of yet. And does she still care about those people at Meereen all that much? We have to wait and see.

Her last words are that she has to go back to get forward. And she searches out the Dothraki by choice. She could have tried to take Drogon in another direction.

1 hour ago, bent branch said:

I think you are underestimating the amount of chaos Drogon can bring to the Dothraki. You fail to consider that Dothraki men oil their hair, ride on animals that are afraid of both dragons and fire, and are riding through a sea of drying grass. Drogon breathes fire once in the direction of the group of 50 and the ones that end up on fire going careening out of control starting secondary fires all around them. Any discipline would break down quickly.

I don't really think that the Dothraki will attack Drogon, but I still think they could do a lot of damage if they tried. And while I believe Drogon will stay with Dany, that they have now permanently bonded, that is not confirmed as of yet. If Drogon left Dany she would be in a very bad position.

I actually think Jhaqo was sent to Slaver's Bay to find out about the rumors involving the dragons and bring Dany back to the dosh khaleen who might have decided to convene some sort of large gathering to assess this changed situation. The Dothraki historically seemed to worship the dragons.

1 hour ago, bent branch said:

The Qartheen are already allies of the Yunkai. Their ships are barricading both the bay and the river. They have also sent ground troops. Why won't defeating them at Meereen be enough? You talked about the decisions that Dany was making and they were to return to Westeros, not run around Essos taking her revenge on everyone who had slighted her.

I'm not insisting on the Qarth thing in any possible scenario. And again, Dany could just sent a khalasar there and then fly to Qarth to oversee its destruction. Dragonriders are very mobile. If Dany gets all the Dothraki she can pretty much destroy/conquer everything west of the Bones.

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33 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But he scrapped that.

Structurally a novel where we are only going to see one of the main characters at around half of the book is not going to be a good book. And it will also not make for a very good story if uniting all the Dothraki under her power is going to be too easy.

Will she? That's an open question as of yet. And does she still care about those people at Meereen all that much? We have to wait and see.

Her last words are that she has to go back to get forward. And she searches out the Dothraki by choice. She could have tried to take Drogon in another direction.

I don't really think that the Dothraki will attack Drogon, but I still think they could do a lot of damage if they tried. And while I believe Drogon will stay with Dany, that they have now permanently bonded, that is not confirmed as of yet. If Drogon left Dany she would be in a very bad position.

I actually think Jhaqo was sent to Slaver's Bay to find out about the rumors involving the dragons and bring Dany back to the dosh khaleen who might have decided to convene some sort of large gathering to assess this changed situation. The Dothraki historically seemed to worship the dragons.

I'm not insisting on the Qarth thing in any possible scenario. And again, Dany could just sent a khalasar there and then fly to Qarth to oversee its destruction. Dragonriders are very mobile. If Dany gets all the Dothraki she can pretty much destroy/conquer everything west of the Bones.

If Drogon flew off and left her there, she'd likely be tortured to death.  So, Drogon will stay.

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3 hours ago, SeanF said:

If Drogon flew off and left her there, she'd likely be tortured to death.  So, Drogon will stay.

Not sure about that. If Jhaqo was there to kill her he could that regardless whether Drogon is there or not. I mean, you know that Silverwing and Vermithor were there when Second Tumbleton began but they could not protect their riders from their enemies.

Dany cannot be with Drogon at all times. If Jhaqo invited Dany into a tent they could easily enough slit her throat in there. What should Drogon do? Avenge her? He is an animal.

I expect some sort of compromise happening there, depending what exactly Jhaqo's intention was. Mago most likely is going to want to see Dany dead, but Jhaqo might have other plans or even other orders. We don't even know why he is there - was he on the way to Slaver's Bay on the invitation of the Ghiscari slavers to destroy Daenerys or does he want to investigate the rumors about her being the Mother of Dragons.

If the latter is the case then this whole thing might be very important for the Dothraki as a people, and if Dany is going to unite the khalasars under her rule then the other khals and their khalasars actually have to be in Vaes Dothrak when she arrives there, or else this whole thing is not going to work.

It could, of course, also only go down to the standard 'a khaleesi has to join the dosh khaleen' thing so they might just drag her along. But Drogon must play a role there, too, which is why there is likely going to be some sort of compromise - say, they agree that Dany has to present herself to the dosh khaleen but is allowed freedom of the khalasar, or something of that sort.

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10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

.

It could, of course, also only go down to the standard 'a khaleesi has to join the dosh khaleen' thing so they might just drag her along. But Drogon must play a role there, too, which is why there is likely going to be some sort of compromise - say, they agree that Dany has to present herself to the dosh khaleen but is allowed freedom of the khalasar, or something of that sort.

Her vision in HOTU does suggest that she will be presented to the Dosh Khaleen in Vaes Dothrak.  My own view is that she will offer the Dothraki the land and riches of Western Essos  if they follow her. There's a throwaway remark by Maester Yandel about the Dothraki never having been further West than Qohor, but he's sure that they'll return one day, which I think is prophetic. I wouldn't be surprised too if they require her to undergo some kind of trial by ordeal, to determine whether they should follow her.

There's another vision which I think is prophetic, of the young Dothraki Khal with silver blond hair, standing proudly in front of a blazing city.  Obviously, one can see that as a vision of Rhaego as he would have been when he grew up, but I also think of it as being a symbolic vision of her as a war leader, demonstrating both her Targaryen heritage and her embrace of Dothraki culture.  I'm sure she will leave many cities in flames behind her. 

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4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Her vision in HOTU does suggest that she will be presented to the Dosh Khaleen in Vaes Dothrak.  My own view is that she will offer the Dothraki the land and riches of Western Essos  if they follow her. There's a throwaway remark by Maester Yandel about the Dothraki never having been further West than Qohor, but he's sure that they'll return one day, which I think is prophetic. I wouldn't be surprised too if they require her to undergo some kind of trial by ordeal, to determine whether they should follow her.

TWoIaF set some khals up as being rather interested in this whole dragon thing, with Khal Dhako taking the name 'the Dragon of the North' and Drogo obviously being interested in marrying a Targaryen daughter.

In that sense the story of the Mother of the Dragons could easily enough cause the dosh khaleen to rethink that whole Stallion Who Mounts the World prophecy thing.

And only prophecy and dragons might be able to unite the Dothraki under one ruler again, especially if that ruler is a woman. There is a certain matriarchic element to their culture with the witch queen Doshi being the one to unite her people under the rule of her son, Khal Mengo. The dosh khaleen clearly take her name from her, and that body might have once been much more powerful than they are today.

4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

There's another vision which I think is prophetic, of the young Dothraki Khal with silver blond hair, standing proudly in front of a blazing city.  Obviously, one can see that as a vision of Rhaego as he would have been when he grew up, but I also think of it as being a symbolic vision of her as a war leader, demonstrating both her Targaryen heritage and her embrace of Dothraki culture.  I'm sure she will leave many cities in flames behind her. 

Doesn't that vision disappear in fire just as Viserys and Drogo are? They are the price Dany has to pay for her three dragons. If the vision was supposed to symbolize Dany embracing Dothraki culture it could have shown her as a Dothraki.

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5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But he scrapped that.

Structurally a novel where we are only going to see one of the main characters at around half of the book is not going to be a good book. And it will also not make for a very good story if uniting all the Dothraki under her power is going to be too easy.

Will she? That's an open question as of yet. And does she still care about those people at Meereen all that much? We have to wait and see.

Her last words are that she has to go back to get forward. And she searches out the Dothraki by choice. She could have tried to take Drogon in another direction.

I don't really think that the Dothraki will attack Drogon, but I still think they could do a lot of damage if they tried. And while I believe Drogon will stay with Dany, that they have now permanently bonded, that is not confirmed as of yet. If Drogon left Dany she would be in a very bad position.

I actually think Jhaqo was sent to Slaver's Bay to find out about the rumors involving the dragons and bring Dany back to the dosh khaleen who might have decided to convene some sort of large gathering to assess this changed situation. The Dothraki historically seemed to worship the dragons.

I'm not insisting on the Qarth thing in any possible scenario. And again, Dany could just sent a khalasar there and then fly to Qarth to oversee its destruction. Dragonriders are very mobile. If Dany gets all the Dothraki she can pretty much destroy/conquer everything west of the Bones.

Yes, he scrapped that, but not because he was philosophically opposed to time jumps.

The idea that Dany will show up so late in the story is yours alone.

So, you're one of the people who think Dany is a sociopath? You think she cares for no one but herself? I think she genuinely cares for Daario, Selmy, Missandei, Jhogo, Grey Worm, etc.

She had been trying to take Drogon back to Meereen for weeks. Drogon wouldn't go. That is why she was walking. She was on the verge of death, that is why she approached the Dothraki, not because she had made some rational decision to join with the Dothraki.

The Dothraki already knew for certain about Drogon. He had been preying upon their horses and from the air Dany could see large burnt spots in the grass where Drogon had been hunting.

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Posted (edited)

On 1.3.2017 at 7:21 PM, bent branch said:

Yes, he scrapped that, but not because he was philosophically opposed to time jumps.

Sure, but that one would have been a major jump ahead in time involving all the characters, not just one. And thinking about that - if George wanted to make this into a twist why not have Dany disappear and then have her show up with a Dothraki khalasar weeks or months later. The fact that we got another Dany chapter at the very end of ADwD suggests that he wants to begin a new story for her there.

Quote

The idea that Dany will show up so late in the story is yours alone.

One that is based on the fact that TWoW will include all the POV characters as well as cover a lot of battles in a lot of chapters early on in the book. I'm not very confident that it would make sense to have a Dany chapter early on in that book if her story is supposed to begin in Vaes Dothrak.

Quote

So, you're one of the people who think Dany is a sociopath? You think she cares for no one but herself? I think she genuinely cares for Daario, Selmy, Missandei, Jhogo, Grey Worm, etc.

No, I don't think she is a sociopath. But I think that those visions she had put her on another path. Vision Viserys and vision Jorah broadened her view and changed her perspective. Going back to Meereen no longer is her top priority. And her goals might change even more when she finally arrives in Vaes Dothrak. When she left Qarth she wanted to go to Pentos and then Westeros only to get sidetracked in Slaver's Bay. She might very well get sidetracked again in Vaes Dothrak.

Quote

She had been trying to take Drogon back to Meereen for weeks. Drogon wouldn't go. That is why she was walking. She was on the verge of death, that is why she approached the Dothraki, not because she had made some rational decision to join with the Dothraki.

She could have made a different decision. Especially after Drogon actually came down and allowed her to mount him. They could have returned to Dragonstone after Drogon they had feasted on the horse together. Or she could have made another attempt to convince Drogon to take her back to Slaver's Bay. There was no need for them to wait for the Dothraki.

Edited by Lord Varys

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