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An argument supporting Mance wrote the Pink Letter


Aegon VII

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3 hours ago, GloubieBoulga said:

Roose can also have left Winterfell with his own men, the Dustin and the Ryswell, after he sent the Frey, the Manderly... and Ramsay to the battle : the Frey-Manderly and Ramsay need at least 7 days (3 to join Stannis's camp, 1 for the battle, 3 (or a bit more) to come back) outside Winterfell, and that sufficiant for Roose to leave and let only few persons (some guards and a maester). 

Or he may be dead. But I like the notion of an empty Winterfell. It may help with the PL Mance's case.

3 hours ago, GloubieBoulga said:

Remember that Roose didn't never fight himself during the saga : against Tywin in AGOT he didn't sent all his own forces, then in ACOK he took Harrenhal by trichery (and sent Glover and Aenys Frey to play the falses prisonners), and finally he sent Glover and others in the trap of Duskendale and Maidenpool. We can suppose he did the same for this time : he found the best way to escape the trap of Winterfell and sacrified some awkward friends (the Frey), dangerous ennemies (Manderly), a bastard without sense of politic (Ramsay was usefull for him when he was in the south, but now he returned to north with a woman and will have children, Ramsay has no more use), and at least weaken Stannis' army. 

But I stop here, this is the Mance's thread

Deliberations regarding the outcome of the battle are important. In the end the PL is the only account we have so far about the Battle of Ice, whether its contents are true or not.

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  • 1 month later...
On 1/18/2017 at 10:05 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

I agree there are lots of ideas about Mance writing the letter, just nothing solid in terms of motive, means or opportunity.

Theories that promote Mance as the writer always require the evidence to be supplemented with supposition, often with suppositions built on supposition, like Mance might have escaped, and he might have had an alliance with the Northern houses, and he might have written the letter before hand, and if we add up all these mights then we might see how Mance might have written the letter, maybe, even if we might not yet have been given the information we need to understand why he wrote the letter. And if that's wrong, then he might have just glamoured Ramsay or he might have control of Winterfell.

I think we're looking for different things when it comes to textual support. I am completely fine not being able to connect the dots between where we are in the books now and a scenario that explains mance writing the PL. If this was the real world I would take an approach more similar to yours, but in literature we are being given exactly as much information as the author feels necessary. It's true any explanation of Mance writing the letter requires the evidence to be supplemented with supposition, but there's a million different suppositions that could expain it, each as unlikely as the next. I have no problem thinking one of them is going to be true, even if I have no idea which version it's going to be. GRRM has clearly laid it out so Mance, Ramsay and Stannis could all be authors of the PL. That's why it's such a good mystery, there's evidence for all three suspects.

The evidence for Mance, however, is far stronger.

All the wording used can be explained by a wildling impersonating Ramsay. The wording does not fit with Ramsay or Stannis writing the letter.

The entire letter mirrors "Mances' burning alive at the wall. Mance is the only one that would take a poetic approach to writing the letter and throw Stannis's fake execution in his face.

Mance's is the only name used in the whole letter. I feel everyone greatly undervalues this piece of evidence.

We already know Mance has a certain ploy in mind, and Mance is confident up until the last time we see him. We have little reason other than the letter to assume his plan has gone awry.

 

On 1/18/2017 at 4:05 PM, pigpiginsunspear said:

Very nicely done.  I think there are strong cases for all three (Stannis, Mance, and Ramsay).  The problems I have with Mance are, as other point out, timing and access to ravens.

Yeah, GRRM definitely made it so there's a case for all three. That's part of the reason I think it's futile to think, "who would benefit the most" or "who's motives does this align with". All three will benefit and are motivated to do so, we have to look at the text of the letter itself for further clues.

On 1/19/2017 at 1:44 AM, KingMance said:

@Aegon VII, this is extremely well thought out, and probably the best argument for Mance writing the letter I've seen on the forum. The lack of skin (none) jon receives always bothered me if ramsay is indeed the author. I don't think the wording proves or disproves any 3 men from writing it, and since the goal is to get jon to make moves, it clearly is successful. 

Thank you! And I agree, some people argue the mutiny is the goal, I argue it was to make Jon make moves.

On 1/19/2017 at 1:44 AM, KingMance said:

I do have questions about each possible author and why they would write it though. If it's Mance or Stannis, why rile up the LC to take his entire host south when they know damn well what's coming from the north? Mance especially knows the danger ahead, and moving the only men who seem to give a damn about the impending threat to humanity AWAY from the most defensible location seems silly. Southern politics should take a back seat at the moment. 

Mance has plans to save the realm and his people that are greater than the wall and the NW. It's why he turned up so many graves in the frostfangs, it's why he's making alliances with northern houses and it's why he's so interested in the crypts of winterfell. I have no idea what these plans are, but evidently bringing Jon south is part of it. My best guess at this point is he plans to put Jon in power, knowing that with Jon as a ruler, the realm stands the best chance of surviving winter.

 

 

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Agreed. I'm pretty positive it wasn't Ramsay and I lean toward Mance, raven access is the only rub but if he can sneak around assassination people sneaking up to the rookery shouldn't be an issue. It's also quite possible that he wrote the letter before leaving Castle Black and took a Castle Black raven with him to facilitate this.

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On February 21, 2017 at 11:05 AM, Praetor Xyn said:

Agreed. I'm pretty positive it wasn't Ramsay and I lean toward Mance, raven access is the only rub but if he can sneak around assassination people sneaking up to the rookery shouldn't be an issue. It's also quite possible that he wrote the letter before leaving Castle Black and took a Castle Black raven with him to facilitate this.

It's very true. Access to Ravens and what exactly happened to allow Mance to write the letter remain questionable, but I think in situations like this we have to go by the textual clues, which 100% point to Mance. Sure Ramsay writing it is the simplest answer and stannis certainly has plenty of means and motivation, but the text points to Mance. He's the only one named for heavens sake! Plus he writes it to perfectly mirror his execution at the wall which is sly af.

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  • 5 months later...

I updated this argument for the kialo.com $25k tournament. If anyone's interested, it's titled "Mance wrote the Pink Letter". If you like it, any "thanks" are greatly appreciated (it's how they judge the entries). Bonus points if anyone recognizes where my cover image is from (you'll see it when you pull it up on kialo.com). 

Besides that, this is a topic I love, so I'd love to continue discussing it on this thread.

Cheers!

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