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U.S. Politics: Confirming The Trumpocalypse


Mr. Chatywin et al.

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IT IS STILL 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

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2016: "Last year, the Science and Security Board moved the Doomsday Clock forward to three minutes to midnight, noting: 'The probability of global catastrophe is very high, and the actions needed to reduce the risks of disaster must be taken very soon.' That probability has not been reduced. The Clock ticks. Global danger looms. Wise leaders should act—immediately." See the full statement from the Science and Security Board on the 2016 time of the Doomsday Clock.

 

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Tillerson, Price, and Pruitt are the three appointments I most badly want blocked; though I suspect Tillerson is the only one where there's likely to be Republican defections.

The rest of the cabinet nominees I can basically stomach. The former generals all seem fine (there's too many of them overall, but each individually seems fine), and the rest are mostly either fairly generic conservatives (e.g. Chao), at agencies that don't really matter (e.g. Carson), or at agencies that don't offer the opportunity to be partisan because they aren't the agency that a lot of people seem to think they are (e.g. Perry).

That does still leave DeVos, who is terrible but luckily the Federal Dept. of Education doesn't have much influence over states, and Sessions, but there's no chance of him being blocked since he's a Senator.

 

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http://community.xe.com/blog/xe-market-analysis/why-john-taylor-leading-candidate-replace-yellen-shouldnt-lead-federal

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There are two reasons Taylor should not lead the Fed:

After 2008, when the Federal Funds Rate hit zero, John Taylor had choice to make. He could have either tried to remain a bit intellectually honest or play Team Republican.

It seems he chose to play Team Republican.

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Taylor continually compared the Obama recovery to the Reagan recovery, an economic apples to oranges comparison

Now, I would expect somebody like Newt Gingrich to not know the difference between the early 1980s and the situation that the Fed was in around 2010 or that he would know the difference and not care as he sold bullshit to “the base”.

I’d expect somebody like Taylor, who is supposed to be a serious academic, to at least acknowledge the difference. But, again, he decided to play Team Republican.

Also, I’d like to know why was the comparison always between St. Ronnie and Obama and not George W. Bush and Obama? Cause Bush didn’t stick to “Conservative principles” and St. Ronnie did? Seems to me they both cut taxes and ran deficits.

You know, Taylor has actually done some interesting and important stuff. Too bad he decided to play Team Republican.

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@Tempra Can't quote from the old thread for some reason (stupid quote function).  To answer your question, I'm particularly concerned with legislative, rather than interpretive regulations.  I'm actually all in favor of regulatory authority being used to resolve grey areas.  I'm not in favor of the APA being used to do by regulatory means what the administration has failed to convince Congress to do.  In my area, I can point to the inversion regulations (which are highly questionable based on the legislative language and legislative history, at best) and the new debt/equity regulations (which are on slightly firmer ground because of unfortunate blank check legislative language, but still contrary to legislative history, and the IRS felt the need to right 200 pages of justification for why they were ok).

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https://www.ft.com/content/b5b764cc-d657-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

You know, I know the Republican Party thinks that it's really great on economic policy.
But, it's not nearly as good at it, as it would like to think.
And the dirty hippies that make up the Democratic Party aren't that bad at it, it would seem.

From Martin Wolf:

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But the story of Mr Obama’s presidency is a little different from the usual, since it began amid the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. If we consider the disaster he inherited and the determination of the Republicans in Congress to ensure he would fail, his record is clearly successful. This does not mean it is perfect. Nor does it mean the US confronts few economic challenges. Neither statement would be close to correct. Yet it does mean he has laid a strong foundation.

 

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The starting point must be with Mr Obama’s inheritance: the economy was in free fall in early 2009. As the report notes, perfectly correctly: “It is easy to forget how close the US economy came to an outright depression during the crisis. Indeed, by a number of macroeconomic measures . . . the first year of the Great Recession . . . saw larger declines than at the outset of the Great Depression in 1929-30.”   

The Party of Business would like us to forget this.

 

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Yet, shockingly, most congressional Republicans opposed all significant monetary, financial and fiscal actions taken to deal with the crisis.

Well, actually, it isn't shocking. Just business as usual with the Republican Party.

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 Some Republicans claimed Fed policies risked hyperinflation. 

And some or many Republicans are flat out idiots. Or decided just to play Team Republican, even if they knew better.

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In all, given the starting point, the performance of the economy has been remarkable. The unemployment rate has consistently fallen faster than expected. US business has also added 15.6m jobs since private-sector job growth turned positive in 2010. Real wage growth has been faster in the present cycle than in any since the early 1970s. In the third quarter of 2016, the economy was 11.5 per cent bigger than at its pre-crisis peak and real gross domestic product per head was 4 per cent above the pre-crisis peak, while that of the eurozone was still below it. Household net worth has also reached 50 per cent above its 2008 level.

 

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18 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

McCain, Graham to unveil bipartisan Russia sanctions bill
It could ratchet up tensions between Russia hawks on Capitol Hill and Donald Trump.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/john-mccain-lindsey-graham-no-russia-sanctions-bill-233395

Hmmm, I can't recall who it was, but one smart poster said last week this Russia thing would drive a huge wedge between Trump and Republican Senators. 

B)

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Obamacare Repeal Might Have Just Died Tonight

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/01/obamacare-repeal-might-have-just-died-tonight.html

I just don't know how Republicans accept either not repealing the mandate or dealing with Democrats. Perhaps if Trump weighs in on something like that. Delaying repeal is a good start. That's kind of how the Senate kills things. They just keep getting delayed and with limited floor time before you know it there is another election. Just look at criminal justice reform.

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19 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Obamacare Repeal Might Have Just Died Tonight

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/01/obamacare-repeal-might-have-just-died-tonight.html

I just don't know how Republicans accept either not repealing the mandate or dealing with Democrats. Perhaps if Trump weighs in on something like that. Delaying repeal is a good start. That's kind of how the Senate kills things. They just keep getting delayed and with limited floor time before you know it there is another election. Just look at criminal justice reform.

There is a vote on Friday in the House to repeal it so we'll see what the Senate does.

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28 minutes ago, Mexal said:

There is a vote on Friday in the House to repeal it so we'll see what the Senate does.

Old, apocryphal story that still holds more weight in DC than people think:

A young aide to a senator sees the senator negotiating with senators from the other party, the aide is upset to see his boss compromising like this and goes to the senator's chief of staff and says "Why is he talking with the enemy?" The chief staff replies "That's not the enemy, that's the opposition. The House is the enemy."

 

If there's one thing all senators agree on its that they absolutely do not give a shit what the House does. If the House passes a bill they like, they'll vote on it because they like the bill, and if they don't like the bill they'll just ignore it. But pressure from the House is just not a thing. I don't know the vote count but it looks clear that there are not 50 votes in the Senate for repeal-without-a-replacement, which is what the House is doing. If that's the case, McConnell will find the least embarrassing way possible to bury the House bill and won't bring it up until he has 50 votes in place that all agree on whatever they want to do.

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HarperCollins will stop selling Monica Crowley's book. Wonder what will happen to her PhD.

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Publisher HarperCollins said Tuesday that it will stop selling a book by Monica Crowley that a CNN KFile investigation found to have more than 50 instances of plagiarism.

Crowley was picked by President-elect Donald Trump to serve as senior director of strategic communications for the National Security Council. CNN's KFile reported Saturday that Crowley's 2012 book, "What The (Bleep) Just Happened," lifted work from columnists, news reports, articles, and think tanks. 

"The book, which has reached the end of its natural sales cycle, will no longer be offered for purchase until such time as the author has the opportunity to source and revise the material," HarperCollins said in a statement to CNN's KFile. 

A request for comment from the Trump transition team was not immediately returned.

 

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