Einheri Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said: I'm very very very far from being all that knowledgeable about European policy and ability, but I'm really unclear how you think this will all happen. While the US and Russia are allying and the US is turning away from Europe and the UK is sitting on the fence a bit, exactly how quickly do you think a Europe can mobilize? And why would you want this? Okay, if Trump withdraws from NATO (and gives up all defence obligations) next week, we would be in for quite a bit trouble no doubt, but that is not going to happen. However, Trumps recent statements and attitude towards the alliance, has opened quite a few eyes over here, and people are finally starting to realize that we can't base our defence on a superpower across the Atlantic because factors in that superpower (i.e. factors we can't control) can potentially leave our countries defenceless. We are already seeing EU leaders calling for a more substantial EU army, and I have no doubt that nukes will soon be on the table in several countries. I have feeling that Trump is what's needed for us to get our collective heads out of the sand. Also, while the UK is not interesting in remaining a part of a political union, they're committed to the defence of Europe (Norway for instance is like a second home to the Royal Marines). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 16 minutes ago, Mexal said: No chance? Aren't there a number of elections upcoming that matter like in France, Germany, Netherlands? I don't know the details behind them at the moment, but I have to imagine if the wrong person gets elected in those countries, especially after what has happened with Brexit and Trump, that Europe could start down a pretty ugly path? The next German chancellor will be called Angela Merkel. There's no way around it. A left leaning three party coalition (SPD, the Greens and the left) is a pipedream. Not going to happen, and I am not sure they would get enough votes for that to begin with. So that leaves Merkel's CDU in need of a partner. And my (not so bold) prediction, they will continue their coalition with SPD. That thought model of her forming a coalition with the Greens looks not plausible. The Green Party and Merkel's CDU will not get enough votes for that. And the Green party working with those Bavarian nutjobs from the CSU. Not going to work. Would I bet money on that? Yes. With regards to the Netherlands I can also pretty much rule out the prospect of Wilders ending up as the head of state. His party might get most votes, but he lacks a party that is willing to build a colaition with his ilk. And his party alone will not get enough votes. I wouldn't bet money on it, but that's I think the most realistic outcome. France is imo the trickiest to predict. But my guess is, there will be a run-off election for president between the conservative party and Le Pen. The conservative candidate is fortunately Fillon and not Sarkozy. That means I am fairly confident he can find the needed votes on the left to block Le Pen, and carry him over the finish line. I doubt Sarkozy would in a milion years be able to get any number of votes from the left. Would I bet money on that outcome? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Quote Russia has nukes, Norway, not so much. A bit a of a asymmetrical issue there methinks. Being a part of NATO and having the US's nuke evens that out a bit. There is France and the UK as well. Not sure why the UK is being discounted here. It's only leaving the EU, not NATO, and it is very much firmly pro-NATO and takes a dim view of current Russian aggression. So does France. They have a combined arsenal of over 500 warheads, enough to glass Russia several times over (yes, Russia has a shit-ton more, but that doesn't really matter because Russia only needs half a dozen to effectively wipe out the UK and France; we are not big countries in comparison). If France and Britain draw a nuclear line in the sand, Russia crosses it at their peril. But they have to be absolutely clear on where that is and the risk is that France and Britain will not be taken as seriously as a comparative American statement. Trump actually had a good idea today (sorry, my keyboard melted when I typed that) in suggesting that Russia and the US agree to reduce nuclear stockpiles in return for the easing of sanctions. That would require a lot of fine detail to be worked out but it's a more positive statement than a few weeks ago when he was suggesting a new arms race. Or maybe tomorrow he'll suggest that the US and Russia join forces to nuke the moon. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Werthead said: Trump actually had a good idea today (sorry, my keyboard melted when I typed that) in suggesting that Russia and the US agree to reduce nuclear stockpiles in return for the easing of sanctions. That would require a lot of fine detail to be worked out but it's a more positive statement than a few weeks ago when he was suggesting a new arms race. Or maybe tomorrow he'll suggest that the US and Russia join forces to nuke the moon. Who knows? They're already doing this. They signed a new START treaty in 2010 to reduce stockpiles by half or something. Trump suggesting that is basically relieving Russia of sanctions for free. He'll piggyback on something the countries are already doing and claim it as his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einheri Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 27 minutes ago, Mexal said: No chance? Aren't there a number of elections upcoming that matter like in France, Germany, Netherlands? I don't know the details behind them at the moment, but I have to imagine if the wrong person gets elected in those countries, especially after what has happened with Brexit and Trump, that Europe could start down a pretty ugly path? If those countries wind up becoming his allies, the other Euros will probably get in line (i.e. it would probably mean the death of European Liberalism in it's current form), and there is not much the US could do about it tbh (Trump or no Trump). Whatever happens, I hope and believe that Europe and Russia will keep the peace between us as we have far more to lose than to win by waging wars against each other (as both world wars has shown us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On January 14, 2017 at 9:29 PM, DireWolfSpirit said: From the reports I've read, the "Women's March on Washington" on Jan. 21st will be epic in size and participation. Much larger than the Inauguration that will be happening the day before. They've already issued over 200 bus permits for the Womens March, versus 30 bus permits for the Inauguration. Friday will be for Le Donalds gang, but the weekend will belong to the people en masse. For live coverage and commentary Democracy Now will be broadcasting on site, should be very good coverage, much better than your going to get from the MSM Networks. https://www.democracynow.org/live/watch_inauguration_2017_womens_march_live DC will be one mass protest all next weekend! Edited this from earlier, I was a day off on the dates previously. Spokeswoman today on MSNBC says the organizers are expecting at least 200,000 participants!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seli Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 39 minutes ago, Notone said: ... With regards to the Netherlands I can also pretty much rule out the prospect of Wilders ending up as the head of state. His party might get most votes, but he lacks a party that is willing to build a colaition with his ilk. And his party alone will not get enough votes. I wouldn't bet money on it, but that's I think the most realistic outcome. ... Duh, The Netherlands are and remain a monarchy But the way coalition formation works here, and the trust that is needed to run the system (and the support in our version of the senate), Wilders leading a government is really unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Splitting hairs, you know what I meant. Picky kaaskop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swordfish Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/15/2017 at 8:40 AM, Manhole Eunuchsbane said: I'm not sure acceptance is really ever going to be on the table. It's more a matter at this point of saving your powder for the important fights. Having a measured response to the significant lines that Trump will invariably cross during the course of his presidency. Completely correct, and highly unlikely. On 1/15/2017 at 11:24 AM, Kalbear said: Trump has, not once, attempted to reconcile in any way. Others have given him ample opportunities to do so. Sanders and Warren, for crying out loud, have stated in the past that they'd work with him. Obama tried to give him a good chance. Trump has shat on all of those chances again and again and again. At some point it is not only on one side to concede or ask to support. Trump believe that this is the case - that since he has won, he is the authority and everyone should listen to him. To be fair, this is precisely how it works with conservatives and precisely how it works in the GOP. It is not how the US works. It certainly wasn't how the GOP worked when Obama was elected. The senate minority leader said that his single priority was to make sure that Obama didn't get re-elected and to challenge him at every turn. How is that accepting Obama? I think it's very important to question the legitimacy of a president when there are actual legal questions surrounding said president. That's sort of the point. Just because he won by the rules doesn't mean he's legitimate, any more than Nixon was a legitimate president after Watergate. If Trump or his senior staff have been colluding with Russians in order to win, that is a major deal. if Trump is violation the constitution by taking essentially bribes, that is a major deal. If Trump is making deals with countries because they make him successful and are at the cost of US interests, that's a major deal. Any of those would make him an illegitimate president. When John Lewis says that Trump is not legitimate, that is what he is talking about. He isn't talking about voting irregularities; he is talking about Trump being a witting agent of Russia. Once those are proven, then you can make the claim that trump is illegitimate. Until then, the claim is spurious. And he said nothing about Trump being a witting agent of russia that I've seen. Can you post the quotes you're referring to? All I've seen is this: Quote “I think the Russians participated in helping this man get elected,” he added, also calling it a “conspiracy.” “They helped destroy the candidacy of Hillary Clinton.” Democrats.... "Accepting' the results of an election that goes against them since 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savannah Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 56 minutes ago, Einheri said: Okay, if Trump withdraws from NATO (and gives up all defence obligations) next week, we would be in for quite a bit trouble no doubt, but that is not going to happen. However, Trumps recent statements and attitude towards the alliance, has opened quite a few eyes over here, and people are finally starting to realize that we can't base our defence on a superpower across the Atlantic because factors in that superpower (i.e. factors we can't control) can potentially leave our countries defenceless. We are already seeing EU leaders calling for a more substantial EU army, and I have no doubt that nukes will soon be on the table in several countries. I have feeling that Trump is what's needed for us to get our collective heads out of the sand. Also, while the UK is not interesting in remaining a part of a political union, they're committed to the defence of Europe (Norway for instance is like a second home to the Royal Marines). European Union army is never going to happen. Sweden would not bleed for Finland any more than Germany would for Estonia. The idea is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Transmetropolitan: Relevant, or Rose-Colored Glasses? Holy mother of God, Transmet is almost 20 years old. But is it still sharp commentary, or a relic of its time? http://www.denofgeek.com/us/books-comics/transmetropolitan/260488/transmetropolitan-relevant-or-rose-colored-glasses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 This is fun. Al Franken calling out Tom Price on his fortunate timing in buying stock in a small biomedical company from Australia. I doubt he responds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 28 minutes ago, Swordfish said: Completely correct, and highly unlikely. Eh, I'm already seeing some of this. Unfortunately there seems to be more of the kneejerk sort of reactions that just seem kind of powerless and pointless. It's hard with this guy what with the Twitter nonsense and whatnot. He provides a target rich environment. The problem is that there is only so much ammunition to be had. I think we have to start choosing our targets more carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 China Warns ‘Rookie’ Trump It May ‘Take Off the Gloves’ After One China Policy Comments http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/01/china-warns-rookie-trump-it-may-take-off-the-gloves.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einheri Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 41 minutes ago, Savannah said: European Union army is never going to happen. Well, I think you’re wrong, and I believe the recent developments have laid the groundwork for its expansion (it already kind of exists, but in a sorry state, I admit) into a force to be reckoned with. Sweden would not bleed for Finland any more than Germany would for Estonia. The idea is absurd. Swedes have a bad track record when it comes to aiding neighbors in need, true, and this might not change since (afaik) they have no actual defence obligation towards anyone. I still think they’d contribute with what little they currently have to spare, however, because of Nordic solidarity which has developed over the years. That said, considering that Finland has one of the largest armies (counting manpower, tanks, artillery, SAM systems etc.) in Europe, and how the stronger SU struggled against it at a point it was much weaker during the Winter War, I actually doubt that Russia could actually take it. At least not without leaving itself extremely vulnerable in other sectors. As for Estonia, yes, Germans, Norwegians, Spanish etc. etc. will fight and die to defend it and/or take it back should Russia invade, and we are already stationing forces there (if not very not large forces, but again that's due to the sorry state of our current forces which should be rectified) as well as the other Baltic countries to show them that we mean business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Why do the pee jokes get so much traction? Here is a possible answer: Quote Wabi-sabi rumors are stories that are so unbelievable, they become perversely believable again. They feel right, even when you know they aren’t, and so they take on the force of legend. Examples include Richard Gere’s gerbil, Catherine the Great’s horse, and Taylor Swift’s immortal life as a Satanic priestess. They’re rumors so compelling that even when you realize they’re false, you stay up all night reading about parallel universes — because if Mick Jagger didn’t eat a Mars Bar out of Marianne Faithfull’s crotch in our universe, then surely there is some alternate reality out there, where he did? Such is the case with Donald Trump’s golden shower. In retrospect, the most surprising thing about the golden-shower rumor is that we didn’t come up with it sooner. http://nymag.com/thecut/2017/01/the-sheer-perfection-of-donald-trumps-golden-shower.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Tax cuts undermine Trump’s pledge that his Obamacare replacement will be "great" http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/16/14285836/obamacare-aca-tax-cuts-repeal-replace https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/01/wef-davos-inequality/513185/ U.S. Ranks 23rd Out of 30 Developed Countries for Inequality A comprehensive index from the World Economic Forum finds that for such a rich country, America isn't doing all that well at creating prosperity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 I'm entertained to note that even the Springsteen tribute band has now pulled out of performing at Trump's inauguration. http://www.nme.com/news/music/bruce-springsteen-tribute-band-pull-trump-inauguration-gig-1946798 It's come to something when you can't even book what is literally an imitation of a headline act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, mormont said: I'm entertained to note that even the Springsteen tribute band has now pulled out of performing at Trump's inauguration. http://www.nme.com/news/music/bruce-springsteen-tribute-band-pull-trump-inauguration-gig-1946798 It's come to something when you can't even book what is literally an imitation of a headline act. It's a Tenth Avenue Freeze-Out. /No worries though, Trump fans. Toby Keith has stepped up to the plate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swordfish Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 45 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said: Eh, I'm already seeing some of this. Unfortunately there seems to be more of the kneejerk sort of reactions that just seem kind of powerless and pointless. I guess you are just more optimistic about peoples ability to save their powder than I am. It's my experience that in these kinds of circumstances, people seem to want to expend their powder as quickly as possible, often firing blindly at shadows and mysterious unidentified noises in the forest. Quote It's hard with this guy what with the Twitter nonsense and whatnot. He provides a target rich environment. The problem is that there is only so much ammunition to be had. I think we have to start choosing our targets more carefully. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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