The Dustin succession crisis that apparently never was

[Protagoras]

I don´t really see the issue. Barbrey Dustin has the support of house Ryswell, which covers their western flank. At the south, there is Blazewater bay - which cuts off the south. At the North, she has the Tallharts, who will be utterly crushed by the Ryswell-Dustin alliance if they did something and at the east there is a big amount of nothing, that is - no strong houses until you get to the Reeds and the Manderleys at the other side of the north.

In short, no Ramsays will have a chance doing something here. Any force that would have a chance using the fact that lady Dustin is a widow is going to be so large that there is no way it can be motivated to Winterfell and need to cross large parts of territories. This is a certain way to provoke Winterfells ire.

What we see here is a strong house with a strong alliance, backed up by geography. In addition, we most likely have a clear line of succession, not given to us on the pages, instead of the mess that was Hornwood (I am guessing the cousin or uncle or whatever is someone Barbrey has a good, working relationship with).

Add to this that the Dustins were king´s once, as well as the original owners (that is - their land was not given to them by Winterfells graces, it always were their land). And while they owe fealty, they own only that which has been specified. Winterfell really (at least on paper) got nothing to do with how they do their business - as long as they follow the Stark rules. Hornwood, in contrast, was most likely a younger house given former Bolton land (they are not mentioned in the World of Ice and Fire nor in Rogues/Dangerous women if I recall correctly). It is therefore far less likely Winterfell would want to mess with that setup, compared to poor lady Hornwood, a house with far, far less status inhabiting former Bolton lands given to them by the Starks, alone and close to the two strongest bannermen in the North. That means Winterfell wants a good reason to force this situation (after all, that could lead to a larger civil war - which is only desirable if you actually mind the people in power at Barrowton and Barrow Hall).

Not every inheritance involving widows and/or women need to end in disagreements, you know.

[sweetsunray]

5 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

 Same goes for the Hornwoods if im not mistaken there is even a bastard Hornwood floating around somewhere? 

The Hornwood bastard was a ward at Deepwood Motte.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

First things first. House Dustin is one of the more powerful Houses anywhere in Westeros.

That is a bold claim. There might be houses who can field 4,000, 5,000, or 6,000 men rather easily. We have no idea how many men the Royces, Reynes, Redwynes, Yronwoods, Hightowers, or Velaryons could field in their best days.

And we have no idea how many men an average house in the populous Reach and West can field. They might all be able to field as many men as the Dustins, or more.

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The fact that some Reach lord might not know much about them says more about the lack of knowledge of said lord than of House Dustin's relative power. A House capable of raising 3000 soldiers at a reasonable estimate (or possibly more), and ruling an area of more than 100,000 square miles, in addition to a town of thousands of people, is a powerful House anywhere in Westeros.

If some backwater peasants knows his way around his backwater town doesn't make that town less backwater or the man from the metropolis more interested in his backwater town. The books prove that a man like Jaime doesn't have a precise picture of House Bolton and Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne flat out state they don't give a damn what the Northmen do because they don't matter.

That's fact. And in light that pretty much nobody in the South seems to travel as far as Winterfell there is no reason to believe the people down there give a damn who is the most powerful ragged Northmen in some timbered hall. Some educated people might, but if the lords and knights of the most prominent houses down in the South don't give a damn about the North and its people in general, one actually wonders how much the people down there actually know.

Keep in mind that even a noble lad like Podrick Payne has to put effort on learning the houses and arms of the Dornishmen. They are not a common sight in the capital, and the Northern arms even less. There is little reason to think that the people in Oldtown can distinguish a Mormont from a Dustin or an Umber from a Bolton. Even an educated man like Stannis has no idea that the clansmen even exist.

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Then regarding Lady Dustin's position. It is far more unusual than you pretend. Note Rob's example, where he - and Catelyn herself - were willing to consider House Karstark - who had a common ancestor with the Starks around 1000 years ago (excluding any more recent inter-marriages) - or some distant Waynwood offspring of a Stark daugther of generations past - without ever considering Catelyn as Robb's potential heir. Despite a heir being needed desperately, with no suitable siblings or cousins available.

Well, nobody had ever said that the mother of self-proclaimed king would be an ideal heir of his crown. That would be ridiculous. Especially a mother who essentially had lost the trust of her royal son and had become nuisance he intended to put under house arrest at Seagard.

Catelyn suggests Jocelyn Stark's descendants as a means to prevent Robb from naming Jon Snow his heir. She sees that whole thing coming. And if Robb is disinheriting Sansa because of her gender and marriage he could not possibly consider his mother a better alternative. By the way, nobody ever considered a Karstark as a potential heir of Robb's. There is no close kinship there.

We are talking about the claims of widows. Mothers could also have claims, but not likely to things their children only conquered. Would Cassana Estermont have had a claim to the Iron Throne because Robert conquered it? I don't think. Her claim wouldn't have been strong enough to mention it. Jeyne Westerling Stark is an entirely different animal, though, isn't she? She is the Dowager Queen of the North and the Riverlands, and thus could actually declare herself Robb's heir without much difficulty.

Widows and mothers aren't 'natural heirs', either. Nobody would name them heirs unless the situation is very dire. If they inherit anything or seize power then under very special circumstances where there is a power vacuum and no other claimant/heir at hand.

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I'm not sure why you want to underplay the extraordinary nature of Lady Dustin's position. She has no blood relation to House Dustin whatsoever.

She doesn't need to have such a connection. She is Lady Dustin by marriage. That gives her a claim by marriage. And since you mention it: We actually don't know whether her mother or grandmother wasn't a Dustin by birth, or do we?

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She seems like a custodian of the House, until her death. But the idea that her closest blood kin - some Ryswell brother - will now be the closest Dustin heir is simply not believable.

Why not? If their is no clear heir the title will revert to the Crown and the Crown will decide what to do with it. If Lady Dustin has enough power in the North - and that's the case right now - she could name an heir in her will and the Crown might uphold that will which would make whoever she chose the new Lord or Lady of Barrowton. It is that easy. That's what's happening right now with the lordship of Rosby. Lord Gyles has died without an heir, a half a dozen of people have put forth claims to Rosby, and the Small Council is ruling on those claims in the name of King Tommen. That's how such issues are apparently decided. That's also the way King Robb would have dealt with the Hornwood succession had he had a proper regency government in the North during his war.

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The fact is, there WILL be people with Dustin blood, even if it is from a Dustin younger son or daugther going back centuries (see the Karstark example relating to House Stark). It is impossible for it not to exist. And such a person would have a better claim to Barrowton than some Ryswell with zero Dustin blood.

That's were you err. While there certainly must be some Dustin descendants from some long-lost younger brother or son of some Lord Dustin living hundreds of years ago there is no guarantee that anybody in the North knows where to find such descendants. And even if they did those descendants might be peasants, blacksmiths, scullions, or whores. The third, fourth, and fifth cousins of lords usually aren't lords even if they still carry the lordly name.

Being related to some lord doesn't necessarily give you a good claim, even if you are rather closely related. What if your other parent or grandparent was basically a peasant? Would anybody at Barrowton want to bow to some filthy up-jumped peasant they barely know or to the lord's lady wife or some person they know is of an impeccable noble bloodline even if he or she isn't a blood relation of their old lord?

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Unless specifically decreed by her liege lord. But there would have to be significant reasons for such a decree. Effectively ending the line of House Dustin - a bloodline which goes back to the Long Night itself - and replacing it with a Ryswell or some other non-blood relative.

There is, of course, also the possibility that Lord Eddard sort of settled the succession of Barrowton when he acknowledged Lady Barbrey as the new Ruling Lady but that would then necessitate that Lady Barbrey actually has a clear heir right now, and we have no reason to believe that she has.

The idea that some old bloodline stretching back to the Long Night in some fashion cannot possibly die out makes no sense. The Strongs died out, too, and they were also a very ancient First Men line. The Durrandons, Reynes, and Gardeners are gone, too, as are many others.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

This makes me wonder what would have happened, assuming the War of the Five Kings had ended with a truce, had Catelyn survived and made it back to Winterfell, but all her children had died.

Sure, she would have ruled Winterfell in the aftermath - and perhaps until her death - but who would have been the heir? Definitely not Edmure, for example. No, it would have been some Karstark, or this Waynwood distant descendant of a Stark daughter from previous generations.

The same principle applies to the Dustins.

That would depend on the political situation. If Catelyn has somehow the power to declare herself a Queen of the Riverlands and the North on the basis of her crown of her son and her own blood as a Tully she would have had quite support among the lords there to succeed. Then she would have been a queen in her own right, being able to name an heir as she saw fit, possibly even declaring a child from another marriage her new heir. It would have been basically comparable to the Mors-Nymeria situation where one ruling spouse died, with the other taking over thereafter and the children only coming after the death of the mother.

The idea that a person actually ruling a kingdom or a lordship in her own right is bound by some words written on paper regardless what her own interests and motivations regarding her own succession are doesn't make much sense.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

OK, I'll bite.

Firstly to deal quickly with your last point. The examples of ruling ladies mentioned rule in their children's stead until they come of age. Lysa Arryn would have no claim to the Vale if Sweetrobin died. Same with Lady Glover.

That is wrong. Reread the oftentimes cited SSM on succession laws. Widows do have claims. Thus Lady Lysa Arryn also has a claim to the Vale.

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Now, in the absence of other, close heirs, or maybe even in their presence, I can easily see a widowed Lady ruling her House until her death or "retirement" (forcibly or not), but that is very different to becoming the heir herself, like some are suggesting Lady Dustin has become. I highly doubt that this is the case. She rules Barrowton. She is the Lady of Barrowton. But she is not likely to be the heir to Barrowton. And if she is, then it would have been the result of a rather significant deviation from the norm, which would have a larger back story than what we currently know.

You are not making sense. Lady Barbrey is the Ruling Lady of Barrowton. She has no reason to also be the heir of Barrowton. The heir of Barrowton doesn't rule as lord over Barrowton.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

What would make for a decent explanation, would be if the Ryswells and Dustins have had many intermarriages in the past - which seems inevitable, given that they are two neighbouring regions with shared strategic interests. Hence, for all we know Rodrik Ryswell's wife was a Dustin, or maybe his mother. If Lady Dustin had Dustin blood from a previous generation, then that would make her position far more justifiable. It could be that she in fact married her cousin.

And would make any of her Ryswell brothers a much stronger potential heir to Barrowton, for example. I note that Rodrik Ryswell's wife is shown as unknown in the Wiki. So that is certainly a possibility that is still open.

As I've stated above already that's certainly a possibility. However, not all that likely because we would have most likely have heard it if Lady Barbrey's mother had been a Dustin. But her grandmother could have been one. Or her great-grandmother.

But that's not the reason why she is now the Ruling Lady Dustin of Barrowton. That is because she is the widow of the last Lord of Barrowton, Willam Dustin.

2 hours ago, Tyrek Lannister said:

I agree, it's hard to imagine that such an old and strong house would have no people left having Dustin blood. I guess it will be a matter of tracing the closest relatives and in the end someone taking up the Dustin name.

And what if the Lords of Barrowton had only a single child living to adulthood for the last, say, six generations (aside from one or two younger sons who went to the Wall)? What if nobody remembers who the hell the present-day descendant of some Dustin son or daughter who was born two hundred years ago is?

That's not unrealistic at all. And even if they would find him - would a blacksmith or a peasant have a chance?

[bent branch]

There is no comparable person to Lady Dustin in the story. No where else do we see a widow take over her husband's seat without having a child that she is serving as regent to. There are only three possible explanations for this:

1)  Plot hole. Definition from Wikipedia:

In fiction, a plot hole, plothole or plot error is a gap or inconsistency in a storyline that goes against the flow of logic established by the story's plot. Such inconsistencies include such things as illogical or impossible events, and statements or events that contradict earlier events in the storyline.

The only example from the story that comes anywhere close to Lady Barbrey's example is Lady Whent and in that situation it is not clear if she herself was also a Whent. 

2)  This second possibility is the one I favor. I also somehow got the impression that this was the answer, but I'm not going to go find the quotes. Anyhow, there are no close Dustin relatives left, only distant cousins. The Ryswells, like the Florents and Hightowers *in the Reach, have married extensively throughout the North. The distant Dustin cousin is a Ryswell. As Lady Dustin is both the widow of Willam Dustin and a Ryswell, the Ryswells are content to let her remain as the Lady Dustin until her death since they are secure in the knowledge the seat will eventually come to one of them. The reason Ned decided to go this route is because the Ryswells are so argumentative.

3)  There are no Dustin relatives remaining, either close or distant. As a sign of respect to Barbrey Dustin (because of how her husband died) Ned allowed Lady Barbrey to keep her husband's seat and intended to name a new Lord of Barrowton upon her death.

 

[SummerSphinx]

2 hours ago, bent branch said:

There is no comparable person to Lady Dustin in the story. No where else do we see a widow take over her husband's seat without having a child that she is serving as regent to. There are only three possible explanations for this:

1)  Plot hole. Definition from Wikipedia:

In fiction, a plot hole, plothole or plot error is a gap or inconsistency in a storyline that goes against the flow of logic established by the story's plot. Such inconsistencies include such things as illogical or impossible events, and statements or events that contradict earlier events in the storyline.

The only example from the story that comes anywhere close to Lady Barbrey's example is Lady Whent and in that situation it is not clear if she herself was also a Whent. 

2)  This second possibility is the one I favor. I also somehow got the impression that this was the answer, but I'm not going to go find the quotes. Anyhow, there are no close Dustin relatives left, only distant cousins. The Ryswells, like the Florents and Hightowers *in the Reach, have married extensively throughout the North. The distant Dustin cousin is a Ryswell. As Lady Dustin is both the widow of Willam Dustin and a Ryswell, the Ryswells are content to let her remain as the Lady Dustin until her death since they are secure in the knowledge the seat will eventually come to one of them. The reason Ned decided to go this route is because the Ryswells are so argumentative.

3)  There are no Dustin relatives remaining, either close or distant. As a sign of respect to Barbrey Dustin (because of how her husband died) Ned allowed Lady Barbrey to keep her husband's seat and intended to name a new Lord of Barrowton upon her death.

 

Similar, yet different, from your  #2:

Perhaps there are multiple argumentative people with equally weak claims and weak support (sort of like Stannis, Renly, Robb, Joffrey, and Balon).

Let's just imagine 5 rather unpopular guys with relatively weak claims to the Dustin seat.  If guy 1 tries to claim the seat (with hypothetically about 20% power) , the other four guys would heartily object (with about 80% power).  

Whoever tried to assert a claim would be too weak to seal the deal.  They were stuck.

Lady Dustin had the power of inertia, however, and nobody thought it was worth it to oust her. They all felt it was better than letting  a rival take the seat.

So everyone has just been waiting. Some of the potential claimants might die. Some might grow more or less powerful. Some probably have offered marriage.

When Lady Dustin passes there may be discord, but it might not be the sort of thing that can be easily determined in advance. Even if someone was named on paper, Robert tried to name Ned to guide his heirs, and his paper was not respected.

 

[HouseFossoway]

Really, Really Crackpot Theory that could solve this:

Barbrey Dustin was pregnant with Brandon Snow's baby, (but was planning on telling the world it was Willam's), but once Willam died and the baby was born (and looked like a stark), she went to Ned and tried to convince him to support the baby's claim, but Ned knowing that it is a bastard and wanting to protect the honor of his brother and Barbrey, decides the right thing to do is to take the bastard and raise it as his own, naming him Jon. In return he allows Barbrey to keep the seat of Barrowton, as long as she doesn't tell anyone about what transpired, thus making her hate Ned with a fiery passion (but for a reason she in no way could share with Theon, or the Boltons could find out).

I know. Really, really crackpot. But just thought I'd throw out another possibility for Jon.

[Free Northman Reborn]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a bold claim. There might be houses who can field 4,000, 5,000, or 6,000 men rather easily. We have no idea how many men the Royces, Reynes, Redwynes, Yronwoods, Hightowers, or Velaryons could field in their best days.

And we have no idea how many men an average house in the populous Reach and West can field. They might all be able to field as many men as the Dustins, or more.

If some backwater peasants knows his way around his backwater town doesn't make that town less backwater or the man from the metropolis more interested in his backwater town. The books prove that a man like Jaime doesn't have a precise picture of House Bolton and Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne flat out state they don't give a damn what the Northmen do because they don't matter.

That's fact. And in light that pretty much nobody in the South seems to travel as far as Winterfell there is no reason to believe the people down there give a damn who is the most powerful ragged Northmen in some timbered hall. Some educated people might, but if the lords and knights of the most prominent houses down in the South don't give a damn about the North and its people in general, one actually wonders how much the people down there actually know.

Keep in mind that even a noble lad like Podrick Payne has to put effort on learning the houses and arms of the Dornishmen. They are not a common sight in the capital, and the Northern arms even less. There is little reason to think that the people in Oldtown can distinguish a Mormont from a Dustin or an Umber from a Bolton. Even an educated man like Stannis has no idea that the clansmen even exist.

Well, nobody had ever said that the mother of self-proclaimed king would be an ideal heir of his crown. That would be ridiculous. Especially a mother who essentially had lost the trust of her royal son and had become nuisance he intended to put under house arrest at Seagard.

Catelyn suggests Jocelyn Stark's descendants as a means to prevent Robb from naming Jon Snow his heir. She sees that whole thing coming. And if Robb is disinheriting Sansa because of her gender and marriage he could not possibly consider his mother a better alternative. By the way, nobody ever considered a Karstark as a potential heir of Robb's. There is no close kinship there.

We are talking about the claims of widows. Mothers could also have claims, but not likely to things their children only conquered. Would Cassana Estermont have had a claim to the Iron Throne because Robert conquered it? I don't think. Her claim wouldn't have been strong enough to mention it. Jeyne Westerling Stark is an entirely different animal, though, isn't she? She is the Dowager Queen of the North and the Riverlands, and thus could actually declare herself Robb's heir without much difficulty.

Widows and mothers aren't 'natural heirs', either. Nobody would name them heirs unless the situation is very dire. If they inherit anything or seize power then under very special circumstances where there is a power vacuum and no other claimant/heir at hand.

She doesn't need to have such a connection. She is Lady Dustin by marriage. That gives her a claim by marriage. And since you mention it: We actually don't know whether her mother or grandmother wasn't a Dustin by birth, or do we?

Why not? If their is no clear heir the title will revert to the Crown and the Crown will decide what to do with it. If Lady Dustin has enough power in the North - and that's the case right now - she could name an heir in her will and the Crown might uphold that will which would make whoever she chose the new Lord or Lady of Barrowton. It is that easy. That's what's happening right now with the lordship of Rosby. Lord Gyles has died without an heir, a half a dozen of people have put forth claims to Rosby, and the Small Council is ruling on those claims in the name of King Tommen. That's how such issues are apparently decided. That's also the way King Robb would have dealt with the Hornwood succession had he had a proper regency government in the North during his war.

That's were you err. While there certainly must be some Dustin descendants from some long-lost younger brother or son of some Lord Dustin living hundreds of years ago there is no guarantee that anybody in the North knows where to find such descendants. And even if they did those descendants might be peasants, blacksmiths, scullions, or whores. The third, fourth, and fifth cousins of lords usually aren't lords even if they still carry the lordly name.

Being related to some lord doesn't necessarily give you a good claim, even if you are rather closely related. What if your other parent or grandparent was basically a peasant? Would anybody at Barrowton want to bow to some filthy up-jumped peasant they barely know or to the lord's lady wife or some person they know is of an impeccable noble bloodline even if he or she isn't a blood relation of their old lord?

There is, of course, also the possibility that Lord Eddard sort of settled the succession of Barrowton when he acknowledged Lady Barbrey as the new Ruling Lady but that would then necessitate that Lady Barbrey actually has a clear heir right now, and we have no reason to believe that she has.

The idea that some old bloodline stretching back to the Long Night in some fashion cannot possibly die out makes no sense. The Strongs died out, too, and they were also a very ancient First Men line. The Durrandons, Reynes, and Gardeners are gone, too, as are many others.

That would depend on the political situation. If Catelyn has somehow the power to declare herself a Queen of the Riverlands and the North on the basis of her crown of her son and her own blood as a Tully she would have had quite support among the lords there to succeed. Then she would have been a queen in her own right, being able to name an heir as she saw fit, possibly even declaring a child from another marriage her new heir. It would have been basically comparable to the Mors-Nymeria situation where one ruling spouse died, with the other taking over thereafter and the children only coming after the death of the mother.

The idea that a person actually ruling a kingdom or a lordship in her own right is bound by some words written on paper regardless what her own interests and motivations regarding her own succession are doesn't make much sense.

That is wrong. Reread the oftentimes cited SSM on succession laws. Widows do have claims. Thus Lady Lysa Arryn also has a claim to the Vale.

You are not making sense. Lady Barbrey is the Ruling Lady of Barrowton. She has no reason to also be the heir of Barrowton. The heir of Barrowton doesn't rule as lord over Barrowton.

As I've stated above already that's certainly a possibility. However, not all that likely because we would have most likely have heard it if Lady Barbrey's mother had been a Dustin. But her grandmother could have been one. Or her great-grandmother.

But that's not the reason why she is now the Ruling Lady Dustin of Barrowton. That is because she is the widow of the last Lord of Barrowton, Willam Dustin.

And what if the Lords of Barrowton had only a single child living to adulthood for the last, say, six generations (aside from one or two younger sons who went to the Wall)? What if nobody remembers who the hell the present-day descendant of some Dustin son or daughter who was born two hundred years ago is?

That's not unrealistic at all. And even if they would find him - would a blacksmith or a peasant have a chance?

I really don't get the point you are trying to make. I never suggested that House Dustin is more powerful than the most powerful Reach House. Or that there aren't southron Houses that exceed it in power. I said it is in the top tier of vassal Houses in Westeros, along with other powerful vassal Houses in other Kingdoms.

Consider that House Hightower - the most powerful non-Great House by far - is said to field 3 times as many soldiers as any other Reach House. Seeing as even generous estimates of House Hightower's strength puts them at between 10-20k men, (probably 15k at a fair estimate) it doesn't look likely that here are any other Reach Houses that exceed 5000-6000 soldiers in strength.

Similarly, House Florent, a powerful Reach House, is confirmed to be able to raise only 2000 men. So House Dustin at 3000 men would be a powerful House even in the Reach. Going further, there are maybe 20 known towns in the mid to high single digit thousands in terms of population, that we suggestions of. And Barrowton is one of them. Not the smallest of them either, by any means. They are clearly one of the most powerful vassal Houses in Westeros.

Coming back to your argument. You seem to suggest that a southron lord's knowledge of House Dustin somehow has bearing on their absolute strength and power. This makes little sense. Just because Greatjon Umber maybe knows House Yronwood as some flowery seat in Highgarden or Dorne, doesn't change the actual strength of House Yronwood, or the fact that it is one of the most powerful vassal Houses in Westeros.

Westeros is vast. Each region is a medieval kingdom in its own right, in terms of size. So the fact that lords in widely seperated parts of Westeros are not that knowledgeable about Houses on the opposite side of the continent is not really relevant to this discussion.

It seems your motivation for considering House Dustin's regard in the South, is because you somehow feel that the issue of their succession is only a big deal if it matters to a lot of southron lords too. But that is misinterpreting my argument. I'm not referring to the extent to which House Dustin's succession matters in Dorne or the Reach as a reason why the heir to Barrowton is important. The South has no input whatsoever into this process. Just like the North would have no input into a succession crisis at Horn Hill or Starfall.

I'm pointing out House Dustin's comparative power as this would make the prize all the more important to the North, not because the thoughts of a Reach lord matters at all in this regard (because it does not). And in this context, we should note that House Dustin lost its lord during Eddard Stark's reign, after he placed his best friend on the Iron Throne. In this context it is quite clear that even if you insist on invoking the Iron Throne's right to decide on an heir, it is obvious that Robert would simply have ratified whatever Eddard Stark decided in this case.

So it would have been up to the Starks to decide on how to deal with this issue, if it became necessary. So it is the Northern context that matters. Nothing else.

In any case, I suspect I know the motivation for your line of argument. Just like the suggestion that Jeyne Westerling would have been Robb's heir even if she bore him no child, which by extension could have seen her able to wield great influence over the North's alliances or succession going forward. (The idea that a Westerling brother or nephew of Jeyne could conceivably have ended up as the heir to Winterfell merely by virtue of Jeyne's marriage to Robb is patently ridiculous).

And with regard to this motivtion, it is no coincidence that you would like to bolster a scenario where Sansa Stark has some claim over the Vale that does not derive from Harry the Heir's future child. The sad answer is that she does not, and will not. And this therefore does not add any motivation for Aegon to consider her as a bride, which is a plotline that you have significant intellectual investment in.

So no, Barbary Dustin's purpose is not to serve as groundwork for Sansa's rule of the Vale in her own right. Any claim to the Vale for Sansa can only come through either influence over a live Harry, or from her acting as regent for her and Harry's future child.

As for Lady Dustin. I favor the very likely idea that the surviving line of Dustin succession runs through House Ryswell in any case, which would explain Lady Dustin's position very plausibly. Just like the longstanding debate about who Eddard's mother was turned out to be solved by her being from House Stark. So too Lady Dustin's mother or grandmother could have been a Dustin.

[bent branch]

3 hours ago, SummerSphinx said:

Similar, yet different, from your  #2:

Perhaps there are multiple argumentative people with equally weak claims and weak support (sort of like Stannis, Renly, Robb, Joffrey, and Balon).

Let's just imagine 5 rather unpopular guys with relatively weak claims to the Dustin seat.  If guy 1 tries to claim the seat (with hypothetically about 20% power) , the other four guys would heartily object (with about 80% power).  

Whoever tried to assert a claim would be too weak to seal the deal.  They were stuck.

Lady Dustin had the power of inertia, however, and nobody thought it was worth it to oust her. They all felt it was better than letting  a rival take the seat.

So everyone has just been waiting. Some of the potential claimants might die. Some might grow more or less powerful. Some probably have offered marriage.

When Lady Dustin passes there may be discord, but it might not be the sort of thing that can be easily determined in advance. Even if someone was named on paper, Robert tried to name Ned to guide his heirs, and his paper was not respected.

 

The person who has the final say in who gets a House seat is the overlord for that seat, in this case Ned Stark. What we are told about the current House Ryswell is that the current lord had five children, two daughters and three sons. The older daughter was married to Roose Bolton and has since died. The younger daughter is Barbrey Dustin. The current Lord Ryswell is Rodrik Ryswell. Of his three sons the oldest is his heir. We are also told these three brothers argue constantly over the most minor of things.

Anyhow, once Willam died and the seat was to be passed to one of the Ryswell brothers, it was thought their constant fighting would increase. (Just one issue would be that one of the younger sons would become a lord a decade or more before his older brother.) Therefore, it was suggested by Lord Rodrik Ryswell that Barbrey be left as Lady Dustin. The reasons being: 1) Barbrey was already in the line of succession; 2) Barbrey was Willam's widow; 3) Lord Rodrik would have to take Barbrey back into his home; 4) Lord Rodrik's sons would do nothing but argue about it all the time. Anyhow, I seem to remember something like this. Not all in one story, but in pieces here and there. I could be misremembering though.

In your scenario Ned would decide who got the seat no matter what the potential candidates thought.

[bemused]

@HouseFossoway.. I think that's only semi-crackpot.. 

I project it will be another case of "Let the bastard rule"...

I've been blithering on elsewhere, and just discovered this .. and I've been preparing a post for the "trip to the crypts" thread (not done yet) that touches on this topic.. So let me give a brief, run-down, lead-in thingy : I strongly, strongly, strongly suspect that ...

1. Bethany Ryswell (older sister) was actually Brandon Stark's lover - Barbrey's story to Theon is the cover story she has told Roose, to gain his trust.. Roose might well believe Brandon had had both sisters.

2. Domeric Bolton was Brandon's son...Roose - supected, then begot Ramsay (or in reverse order) ..he realised Dom was not his son (Roose can play a waiting game)... knew Ramsay would kill Domeric .. forbade Dom to seek Rams out, thereby ensuring that he would (teenager) .. Roose may also have had a hand in Bethany's death..(Barbrey despises both Boltons, and as Roose says "knows how to nurse a grudge".She's with the resistance)

3. Barbrey isvery likely closer in age to Lyanna and Benjen...Probably close to them both from childhood. 

4. Lord Ryswell probably did want to arrange a marriage between Barbrey and Ned, but settled for Willam Dustin. (She may actually not have wanted either of them, not that that counted)

5. During RR, Benjen would have been the Stark Barbrey would turn to for advice help, etc.(If she didn't want to turn to her father) I suggest love blossomed, if it hadn't already... Resulting in a son...

Wait...What..? We have to take a side trip, here..Back to Barbrey's trip to the crypts in The Turncloak. I'll pick out the salient quotes:

Theon was staring down into the last dregs of his third tankard when Lady Barbrey Dustin swept into the hall and sent two of her sworn swords to bring him to her ..<snip>..

Barbrey to Theon : 

Do you know the way or not?”
“I do.” He did not like the crypts, had never liked the crypts, but he was no stranger to them.
“Show me. Serjeant, fetch a lantern.”..<snip>..

It took Lady Dustin’s men the better part of half an hour to uncover the entrance, shoveling through the snow and shifting rubble. When they did, the door was frozen shut. Her serjeant had to go find an axe before he could pull it open, hinges screaming, to reveal stone steps spiraling down into darkness.
“It is a long way down, my lady,” Theon cautioned.
Lady Dustin was undeterred. “Beron, the light.”

The way was narrow and steep, the steps worn in the center by centuries of feet. They went single file—the serjeant with the lantern, then Theon and Lady Dustin, her other man behind them....<snip>...

They proceed down speaking of ...OT... until Theon says they've arrived and opens the door to the vaults...

Lady Dustin’s serjeant raised the lantern. Shadows slid and shifted. ....<snip>   

Two of Barbreys sworn swords come for Theon, but really, one of them does almost nothing except to make the other seem less noticeable because of his presence. Barbrey's sergeant does everything..fetches the lantern, fetches the axe, opens the door, holds/brings the light and leads the way. Her other man helps with the rubble and walks behind them. Why is the serjeant doing all the fetching and carrying rather than the regular sworn sword? No delegating in the Dustin ranks? ...Her serjeant is mentioned 5 times, but on the third mention, she slips up and names him - Beron, a Stark name, which George reinforces down in the crypts..

.... He (Theon) could feel the stone kings staring down at him with their stone eyes, stone fingers curled around the hilts of rusted longswords.

“So many,” Lady Dustin said. “Do you know their names?” ...<snip>...

Hating the Starks as much she claims, why on earth would Barbrey be asking if Theon knows the names of all the stone kings?... unless it's to check if he noticed that she called Beron a Stark name or to see if he will point out Beron's namesake in passing. Beron doing all the fetching and carrying may denote that he's younger and more agile than the unamed man or that he has a personal interest in visiting the crypts.
... The stone eyes of the dead men seemed to follow them, and the eyes of their stone direwolves as well.
The faces stirred faint memories. A few names came back to him, unbidden, whispered in the ghostly voice of Maester Luwin. King Edrick Snowbeard, who had ruled the north for a hundred years. Brandon the Shipwright, who had sailed beyond the sunset. Theon Stark, the Hungry Wolf. My namesake. (my namesake is italicized in the text as well) Lord Beron Stark, who made common cause with Casterly Rock to war against Dagon Greyjoy, Lord of Pyke, in the days when the Seven Kingdoms were ruled in all but name by the bastard sorcerer men called Bloodraven.

The namesakes of the two men who are named in this scene are mentioned back to back. Theon asks why Barbrey hates the Starks, she asks back...

Why do you love the Starks?”

“I …” Theon put a gloved hand against a pillar. “… I wanted to be one of them …”
“And never could. We have more in common than you know, my lord. But come.”

Though I think Barbrey's story about Brandon is not true (at least not for her, but Bethany) this may hold some truth, but for different reasons.

If you're still with me, let's go back to numbered points..

6. When Ned returned from RR, I estimate Benjen stayed as his right hand man for about 5yrs.  -   - When I came to figuring out why it was that Mance and Benjen never met , though rangers from the 3 NW castles must have crossed paths often (Mance wanted to "take his measure" during Robert's visit) ...Why Qorgyle wouldn't have taken Benjen  with him from CB to visit WF , but would travel to the shadow tower first to pick up Mance... The only thing that made sense was the same reason Mormont gave Tyrion when he proposed a visit for Jon. He hadn't been at the wall long enough to form new bonds and let the old bonds fade a bit. He may not even have taken his vows, yet ... Yet to judge from the game Mance saw Jon and Robb playing, they must have been about 5 at the time.

7. Ample time for a child to be born during RR (or about the same time as Jon and Robb)

8. If there are no Dustin cousins Ned would have been able to let them marry and form a secondary Stark household.. but could he be sure another northern house (say, the Boltons) wouldn't complain to the crown that it was an unwarranted land grab? (I doubt the Ryswells would complain, especially if Barbrey has Dustin blood , as suggested above)

In a SSM, when asked if Brandon had any bastards (equating Brandon with Robert) , GRRM downplayed the comparison a bit by saying well Brandon was certainly no angel, then very indirectly, added that there might be some Stark blood somewhere around White Harbour or Barrowton. ... (RE: Barrowton,I think the questioner was asking about the wrong brother)

According to Barbrey, when Willam left for RR, he.. " had kin he might have sent in his stead. An uncle famed for his prowess with an axe, a great-uncle who had fought in the War of the Ninepenny Kings."... could they have been father and son?(in the way that older cousins are sometimes called uncle or aunt) I don't know... "prowess with an axe" may be a clue to something.. but if it means bringing a southron or other faraway influence to the north, I think everyone would want to stall as long as possible, and just see who survives. 

Ned was on delicate ground with Robert and was trying to keep a low profile.

If the north manages to reclaim the autonomy they gained with Robb, it could make quite a difference to how this would be settled.. Who would be legitimized, which "bastard" takes which last name. If my suspicions are right about Beron, there would be possible solutions that aren't obvious right now.

[Free Northman Reborn]

28 minutes ago, bemused said:

@HouseFossoway

 

According to Barbrey, when Willam left for RR, he.. " had kin he might have sent in his stead. An uncle famed for his prowess with an axe, a great-uncle who had fought in the War of the Ninepenny Kings."... could they have been father and son?(in the way that older cousins are sometimes called uncle or aunt) I don't know... 

Aha! So there already we have the existence of other male Dustins confirmed - at least at the time of Robert's Rebellion. Male Dustins who could easily have had offspring. And other female Dustins aren't even mentioned yet.

[LindsayLohan]

This makes me think on the Hornwood succession, where Ramsay married Donella Hornwood (born Manderly) in order to seize her lands.  Lady Dustin is too powerful for anyone to move on her in such a manner, but the lack of a successor is what made Lady Hornwood such a target for forceful seizure of her lands.  If Bran had been a bit more proactive and allowed Rodrik Cassell to marry Donella Hornwood, it would have provided a semi-legitimate heir (Bethany Cassell) for a traditional marriage/alliance in the future.

Instead everyone involved died, save Beth, who may or may not be alive at the Dreadfort.

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, LindsayLohan said:

This makes me think on the Hornwood succession, where Ramsay married Donella Hornwood (born Manderly) in order to seize her lands.  Lady Dustin is too powerful for anyone to move on her in such a manner, but the lack of a successor is what made Lady Hornwood such a target for forceful seizure of her lands.  If Bran had been a bit more proactive and allowed Rodrik Cassell to marry Donella Hornwood, it would have provided a semi-legitimate heir (Bethany Cassell) for a traditional marriage/alliance in the future.

Instead everyone involved died, save Beth, who may or may not be alive at the Dreadfort.

Actually the Cerwyn nephew (Lord Hornwood's sister was married to Lord Cerwyn and has two sons) is still alive, and so is the Hornwood bastard who was a ward of the Glovers at Deepwood Motte. All the more reason for the Cerwyns and Glovers to profit from seeing the Boltons being taken down.

[Adam Yozza]

39 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Actually the Cerwyn nephew (Lord Hornwood's sister was married to Lord Cerwyn and has two sons) is still alive, and so is the Hornwood bastard who was a ward of the Glovers at Deepwood Motte. All the more reason for the Cerwyns and Glovers to profit from seeing the Boltons being taken down.

I think you're thinking about the Tallhart's. The only Cerwyn left is Lord Medgar's daughter.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I really don't get the point you are trying to make. I never suggested that House Dustin is more powerful than the most powerful Reach House. Or that there aren't southron Houses that exceed it in power. I said it is in the top tier of vassal Houses in Westeros, along with other powerful vassal Houses in other Kingdoms.

I'd have to disagree with this. They're definitely something like the 3rd most powerful house in the North, but among the most powerful house's in Westeros?

The Lannisport Lannister's and the Hightower's could both almost certainly field vastly more men than the Dustin's. In their day the Reyne's and Darry's could probably also be counted among this number, as could the Frey's, the Royce's, the Redwyne's and the Peake's (prior to BF rebellion's) and we know the Manderly's and Dustin's are more powerful than them.

So no, I would say they aren't top tier among vassal house's.

[sweetsunray]

7 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

I think you're thinking about the Tallhart's. The only Cerwyn left is Lord Medgar's daughter.

Indeed. I stand corrected.

[Free Northman Reborn]

16 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

I think you're thinking about the Tallhart's. The only Cerwyn left is Lord Medgar's daughter.

I'd have to disagree with this. They're definitely something like the 3rd most powerful house in the North, but among the most powerful house's in Westeros?

The Lannisport Lannister's and the Hightower's could both almost certainly field vastly more men than the Dustin's. In their day the Reyne's and Darry's could probably also be counted among this number, as could the Frey's, the Royce's, the Redwyne's and the Peake's (prior to BF rebellion's) and we know the Manderly's and Dustin's are more powerful than them.

So no, I would say they aren't top tier among vassal house's.

Well of course it depends on how wide you make the top tier. If you only include Houses that can raise more than 10.000 men, well, then House Hightower might well be alone in that tier. On the other hand, if you consider House Florent at 2000 men to be a strong southron House (as I do based on Stannis's comments), then a House capable of raising half again (and possibly twice) their strength would be considered very powerful anywhere in Westeros.

The consistent fallacy, I find, is to think that the number of strong Houses need to be balanced proportionally across the various Kingdoms. But there is no requirement for that to be the case. In fact, the Reach might well be able to raise 100,000 men, but still have 2000 men be considered quite a lot for the average House. All that means is that they have far more Houses than a region like the North, for example.

Nor is there anything that prevents the North from having three Houses as strong or stronger than the Freys, while the Riverlands has only House Frey in that category. Again, the Riverlands might just have far more Houses than the North has, to bring their overall totals to more or less the same level.

In that sense, consider that we don't know of any town approaching Barrowton in size in the Frey lands. Their largest settlement appears to be the Twins, and it is nowhere near Barrowton in size. For all we know, therefore, House Dustin can match House Frey in strength, making them equal to the most powerful House in the Riverlands.

In any case, all I'm saying is that they are a powerful House, by any standard, anywhere in Westeros. And their town might well be as large as the largest settlement in all of Dorne, the Stormlands or the Riverlands - none of whom have any cities in their lands. Making Barrowton quite a prize indeed.

 

[Lord Varys]

@Free Northman Reborn

You posted this:

16 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The seat of House Dustin is one of the most powerful and prominent prizes in the North. And to a lesser degree, in all of Westeros.

I second the former, but challenge the latter.

And being a reasonably powerful house doesn't mean there has to be struggle who takes over the lordship if there is no clear heir. Especially if there are no heirs around. Then a line simply dies out and the lordship reverts back to Crown as it with Harrenhal when the Towers and the Strongs died out.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I really don't get the point you are trying to make. I never suggested that House Dustin is more powerful than the most powerful Reach House. Or that there aren't southron Houses that exceed it in power. I said it is in the top tier of vassal Houses in Westeros, along with other powerful vassal Houses in other Kingdoms.

And I see the Dustins are by far not the same rank-wise as the powerful lords of the South simply because they are backwater Northmen. They are poor lot compared to their peers in the South.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Similarly, House Florent, a powerful Reach House, is confirmed to be able to raise only 2000 men.

House Florent is never called 'a powerful Reach House'. In fact, TWoIaF makes it clear that never were all that powerful, considering they never played a major in the history of the Reach. They have closer blood ties to the Gardeners than the Tyrells and thus claim that they should have gotten Highgarden and the Reach but that has nothing to do with the size of their lands or their military capabilities. If Sansa married a Flint of the clanmen then her Flint son by that guy would also have a claim to Winterfell. Perhaps not a very good one. Or just think about this Harrold Rogers chap from the Stormlands who married Branda Stark. His descendants would also have a claim to Winterfell, just as the Florents have a claim to Highgarden. But that doesn't mean they have the strength the press that claim.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So House Dustin at 3000 men would be a powerful House even in the Reach. Going further, there are maybe 20 known towns in the mid to high single digit thousands in terms of population, that we suggestions of. And Barrowton is one of them. Not the smallest of them either, by any means. They are clearly one of the most powerful vassal Houses in Westeros.

Having a town doesn't mean you have a lot of people. You could just have most of your people living in that town.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Coming back to your argument. You seem to suggest that a southron lord's knowledge of House Dustin somehow has bearing on their absolute strength and power. This makes little sense. Just because Greatjon Umber maybe knows House Yronwood as some flowery seat in Highgarden or Dorne, doesn't change the actual strength of House Yronwood, or the fact that it is one of the most powerful vassal Houses in Westeros.

No. I pointed out that the Lords in the South don't give a damn about House Dustin. That was all.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It seems your motivation for considering House Dustin's regard in the South, is because you somehow feel that the issue of their succession is only a big deal if it matters to a lot of southron lords too.

That is ridiculous. I just pointed out that your assessment of the Dustins being an important house on the scale of the entire Seven Kingdoms is wrong. 

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I'm pointing out House Dustin's comparative power as this would make the prize all the more important to the North, not because the thoughts of a Reach lord matters at all in this regard (because it does not).

That might be correct, but a price has to be won by some people. And if Lady Barbrey Ryswell Dustin is the only claimant, the only person trying to claim that price, then the contest will be over before it even began. And that is a possible scenario. You try to sell us the idea that there have to many heirs, that there have to be some Dustin descendants around, but there is no reason to believe any of that.

Even Catelyn doesn't know who Jocelyn Stark's descendants in the Vale are. She know she married a Royce from the lesser branch, and that she had three daughters who married into houses Waynwood, Corbray, and perhaps Templeton. Yet she has no idea whether those marriages produced any issue nor whether any such issue is still alive.

Why the hell have people to know who some distant Dustin cousins are? This is a medieval society. If you are not of noble birth you might not know who your great-grandparents are. And even if you are of noble birth you most likely have no clue who the hell your great-great-grandparents through the various female lines are.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And in this context, we should note that House Dustin lost its lord during Eddard Stark's reign, after he placed his best friend on the Iron Throne. In this context it is quite clear that even if you insist on invoking the Iron Throne's right to decide on an heir, it is obvious that Robert would simply have ratified whatever Eddard Stark decided in this case.

He would have followed his suggestion, most likely. Such matters are decided by the Crown, not the lords. Lords cannot make new lords, and if the succession is unclear it falls to the king to reach a decision.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So it would have been up to the Starks to decide on how to deal with this issue, if it became necessary. So it is the Northern context that matters. Nothing else.

Nope.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In any case, I suspect I know the motivation for your line of argument.

I'm basing my arguments on the George's SSM on the succession customs as well as on the fact that Lady Barbrey is the Lady Dustin of Barrowton in the books.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Just like the suggestion that Jeyne Westerling would have been Robb's heir even if she bore him no child, which by extension could have seen her able to wield great influence over the North's alliances or succession going forward. (The idea that a Westerling brother or nephew of Jeyne could conceivably have ended up as the heir to Winterfell merely by virtue of Jeyne's marriage to Robb is patently ridiculous).

I never said the latter. However, think about a scenario in which Jeyne is a determined and strong martial leader at Robb's side, another Nymeria perhaps. He is killed, his siblings die as well, and there are no other Starks left but some distant cousins in the Vale who never raised a finger to help their Stark kin in the wars. Queen Jeyne fails to produce any heirs but is a well-liked, popular, and successful monarch. She remarries and later on passes her kingdom and holdings to her children from that marriage. That is neither an unlikely nor an unrealistic scenario.

She certainly would have to have the support of her subjects in all this, but that's already entailed in the fact that she was 'well-liked, popular, and successful monarch' in this scenario. If she sucked as a queen nothing of this sort would happen. Kingdoms need kings or queens to continue, and if their are no clear heirs then history tells us that somebody will come forth and fill that void. Spouses more often than not are forced to do exactly that.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And with regard to this motivtion, it is no coincidence that you would like to bolster a scenario where Sansa Stark has some claim over the Vale that does not derive from Harry the Heir's future child. The sad answer is that she does not, and will not. And this therefore does not add any motivation for Aegon to consider her as a bride, which is a plotline that you have significant intellectual investment in.

What? I don't even follow your line of thinking there. It is a fact in the text as well as George's own words that widows have claims to the titles of their late husbands. If Sansa happened to marry Harry the Heir and the poor lad just had a mortal accident the next day then Sansa Stark certainly had a chance to get herself confirmed as the new Lady of the Vale, especially in light of the fact that she has blood relations among the Waynwoods, Corbray, and Templetons. Those cousins might support her as Lady of the Vale. She could be a better alternative if Harry's heir happens to be some petty lord.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So no, Barbary Dustin's purpose is not to serve as groundwork for Sansa's rule of the Vale in her own right.

Sure it isn't. Nobody said it was.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Any claim to the Vale for Sansa can only come through either influence over a live Harry, or from her acting as regent for her and Harry's future child.

No, it can't. Just as Littlefinger's power over the Vale right now has basically nothing to do with his hold over Lord Robert because he also has a lot of friends in the Vale. The title Lord Protector is just the official part of his power. Even if he had to step down he could still be able to control things behind the scenes like mobsters usually do.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for Lady Dustin. I favor the very likely idea that the surviving line of Dustin succession runs through House Ryswell in any case, which would explain Lady Dustin's position very plausibly. Just like the longstanding debate about who Eddard's mother was turned out to be solved by her being from House Stark. So too Lady Dustin's mother or grandmother could have been a Dustin.

Or not. That is not 'very likely' because we have no reason to believe Lady Barbrey became the Lady of Barrowton because she herself has Dustin blood. If we know that she had that could be used to help explain why she got Barrowton. But since she could also have taken over Barrowton as the Dowager Lady of Barrowton there is really no reason to believe she has to have Dustin blood.

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@Free Northman Reborn

You posted this:

I second the former, but challenge the latter.

And being a reasonably powerful house doesn't mean there has to be struggle who takes over the lordship if there is no clear heir. Especially if there are no heirs around. Then a line simply dies out and the lordship reverts back to Crown as it with Harrenhal when the Towers and the Strongs died out.

And I see the Dustins are by far not the same rank-wise as the powerful lords of the South simply because they are backwater Northmen. They are poor lot compared to their peers in the South.

House Florent is never called 'a powerful Reach House'. In fact, TWoIaF makes it clear that never were all that powerful, considering they never played a major in the history of the Reach. They have closer blood ties to the Gardeners than the Tyrells and thus claim that they should have gotten Highgarden and the Reach but that has nothing to do with the size of their lands or their military capabilities. If Sansa married a Flint of the clanmen then her Flint son by that guy would also have a claim to Winterfell. Perhaps not a very good one. Or just think about this Harrold Rogers chap from the Stormlands who married Branda Stark. His descendants would also have a claim to Winterfell, just as the Florents have a claim to Highgarden. But that doesn't mean they have the strength the press that claim.

Having a town doesn't mean you have a lot of people. You could just have most of your people living in that town.

No. I pointed out that the Lords in the South don't give a damn about House Dustin. That was all.

That is ridiculous. I just pointed out that your assessment of the Dustins being an important house on the scale of the entire Seven Kingdoms is wrong. 

That might be correct, but a price has to be won by some people. And if Lady Barbrey Ryswell Dustin is the only claimant, the only person trying to claim that price, then the contest will be over before it even began. And that is a possible scenario. You try to sell us the idea that there have to many heirs, that there have to be some Dustin descendants around, but there is no reason to believe any of that.

Even Catelyn doesn't know who Jocelyn Stark's descendants in the Vale are. She know she married a Royce from the lesser branch, and that she had three daughters who married into houses Waynwood, Corbray, and perhaps Templeton. Yet she has no idea whether those marriages produced any issue nor whether any such issue is still alive.

Why the hell have people to know who some distant Dustin cousins are? This is a medieval society. If you are not of noble birth you might not know who your great-grandparents are. And even if you are of noble birth you most likely have no clue who the hell your great-great-grandparents through the various female lines are.

He would have followed his suggestion, most likely. Such matters are decided by the Crown, not the lords. Lords cannot make new lords, and if the succession is unclear it falls to the king to reach a decision.

Nope.

I'm basing my arguments on the George's SSM on the succession customs as well as on the fact that Lady Barbrey is the Lady Dustin of Barrowton in the books.

I never said the latter. However, think about a scenario in which Jeyne is a determined and strong martial leader at Robb's side, another Nymeria perhaps. He is killed, his siblings die as well, and there are no other Starks left but some distant cousins in the Vale who never raised a finger to help their Stark kin in the wars. Queen Jeyne fails to produce any heirs but is a well-liked, popular, and successful monarch. She remarries and later on passes her kingdom and holdings to her children from that marriage. That is neither an unlikely nor an unrealistic scenario.

She certainly would have to have the support of her subjects in all this, but that's already entailed in the fact that she was 'well-liked, popular, and successful monarch' in this scenario. If she sucked as a queen nothing of this sort would happen. Kingdoms need kings or queens to continue, and if their are no clear heirs then history tells us that somebody will come forth and fill that void. Spouses more often than not are forced to do exactly that.

What? I don't even follow your line of thinking there. It is a fact in the text as well as George's own words that widows have claims to the titles of their late husbands. If Sansa happened to marry Harry the Heir and the poor lad just had a mortal accident the next day then Sansa Stark certainly had a chance to get herself confirmed as the new Lady of the Vale, especially in light of the fact that she has blood relations among the Waynwoods, Corbray, and Templetons. Those cousins might support her as Lady of the Vale. She could be a better alternative if Harry's heir happens to be some petty lord.

Sure it isn't. Nobody said it was.

No, it can't. Just as Littlefinger's power over the Vale right now has basically nothing to do with his hold over Lord Robert because he also has a lot of friends in the Vale. The title Lord Protector is just the official part of his power. Even if he had to step down he could still be able to control things behind the scenes like mobsters usually do.

Or not. That is not 'very likely' because we have no reason to believe Lady Barbrey became the Lady of Barrowton because she herself has Dustin blood. If we know that she had that could be used to help explain why she got Barrowton. But since she could also have taken over Barrowton as the Dowager Lady of Barrowton there is really no reason to believe she has to have Dustin blood.

Well, we just have to disagree. Jeyne Westerling or Sansa Stark would not have a feasible claim to the North or Vale, without being the mothers of the heirs of their respective Stark and Arryn husbands. You might want to fantasize about such a scenario, but it is about as unlikely an outcome as can be imagined.

Just like Sansa would have no claim to Casterly Rock, by virtue of being Tyrion's wife, even if all the Lannisters died off by some miraculous event.

 

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, we just have to disagree. Jeyne Westerling or Sansa Stark would not have a feasible claim to the North or Vale, without being the mothers of the heirs of their respective Stark and Arryn husbands. You might want to fantasize about such a scenario, but it is about as unlikely an outcome as can be imagined.

George is agreeing with me, though. He acknowledges the claim of widows, both in his book (e.g. Lady Dustin and Lady Hornwood) as well as in a SSM. You cannot argue against George and still demand that we take your arguments seriously. Rodrik Cassel essentially confirms that Roose Bolton actually has a legal claim on the Hornwood lands and castle now that his bastard as married the Dowager Lady of Hornwood. And that it is not likely he will let that go. If it was clear that such claims didn't exist (as you try to assert) then why doesn't Rodrik share your view on this?

8 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Just like Sansa would have no claim to Casterly Rock, by virtue of being Tyrion's wife, even if all the Lannisters died off by some miraculous event.

She would. Especially in such a miraculous event. Somebody would have to take possession of the castle, after all. Why not the widow of some Lannister? I mean, has your mother had the house of your father to your second cousin just because she outlived you, your siblings, and other close kin? Most likely not. In Westeros this kind of thing happens occasionally, but it doesn't have to happen.

[Free Northman Reborn]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

George is agreeing with me, though. He acknowledges the claim of widows, both in his book (e.g. Lady Dustin and Lady Hornwood) as well as in a SSM. You cannot argue against George and still demand that we take your arguments seriously. Rodrik Cassel essentially confirms that Roose Bolton actually has a legal claim on the Hornwood lands and castle now that his bastard as married the Dowager Lady of Hornwood. And that it is not likely he will let that go. If it was clear that such claims didn't exist (as you try to assert) then why doesn't Rodrik share your view on this?

She would. Especially in such a miraculous event. Somebody would have to take possession of the castle, after all. Why not the widow of some Lannister? I mean, has your mother had the house of your father to your second cousin just because she outlived you, your siblings, and other close kin? Most likely not. In Westeros this kind of thing happens occasionally, but it doesn't have to happen.

I'm saying it can happen, in extreme circumstances. But the more powerful and sought after the prize is, the far less likely it will succeed. And that the claim being disputed is very, very likely. As indeed happened in the case of the Hornwood succession.

In the case of Lady Dustin, it seems far more plausible that there are additional reasons for the relatively secure rule she has over House Dustin, beyond just her marriage to Lord Dustin. And that it will likely come out over the course of the books.

As for a Lord Paramount's seat, I don't see it happening. Not practically, and not realistically. You are using wishful thinking in the extreme if you think Littlefinger's hold over the Vale would have any hope of surviving if Sweetrobin died, unless he had influence over Harry the Heir through Sansa. And if Harry then also died, without Sansa being pregnant with his child, well, then the hold would quickly vanish.

[Greywater-Watch]

Maybe GRRM did not think about how to embed House Dustin into the lineage of the Northern houses on the same Level as he did for other houses. Apart from two times mentioning members of House Dustin, Lady Dustin is the first important character from the house to appear in the last book (ADWD). An interesting figure on herself. But I feel GRRM lost the in depth control of the world of Westeros at this point of the story. And maybe he did not even want to bother with that any more.