The Dustin succession crisis that apparently never was

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Maybe GRRM did not think about how to embed House Dustin into the lineage of the Northern houses on the same Level as he did for other houses. Apart from two times mentioning members of House Dustin, Lady Dustin is the first important character from the house to appear in the last book (ADWD). An interesting figure on herself. But I feel GRRM lost the in depth control of the world of Westeros at this point of the story. And maybe he did not even want to bother with that any more.

No I reckon he has more backstory that he has not shared yet. My bet is that a succession battle will likely loom once Lady Dustin dies, maybe from nephews descended from those uncles and great-uncles of Lord Dustin, referred to by Lady Dustin. And that her presence is delaying this inevitable chaos, and hence she is the sound choice to maintain the status quo - until she dies.

[SummerSphinx]

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

The person who has the final say in who gets a House seat is the overlord for that seat, in this case Ned Stark...

In your scenario Ned would decide who got the seat no matter what the potential candidates thought.

I think I wasn't clear enough.  I'm sure Ned Stark could weigh in, and probably did to a certain extent. 

But Robert Baratheon weighed in on who should rule after he died, and the Lannisters burned up the paper and Joff killed Ned.

A solid claim, the support of the overlord, AND enough local powerful support all matter. 

Ned, Barbrey, and the other claimants may have decided just to wait to officially name an heir in light of the conflict that would result from prematurely naming someone. Or they may have named someone, but everyone "just knew" that it was a really weak claim that would be swiftly challenged if Barbrey died. 

I think we agree on most points.

 

[Mander]

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The consistent fallacy, I find, is to think that the number of strong Houses need to be balanced proportionally across the various Kingdoms. But there is no requirement for that to be the case. In fact, the Reach might well be able to raise 100,000 men, but still have 2000 men be considered quite a lot for the average House. All that means is that they have far more Houses than a region like the North, for example.

Nor is there anything that prevents the North from having three Houses as strong or stronger than the Freys, while the Riverlands has only House Frey in that category. Again, the Riverlands might just have far more Houses than the North has, to bring their overall totals to more or less the same level.

Do we actually have any idea how many houses there are in each region? At least a rough estimate of the proportion of numbers? Then you could guess the average military numbers and proceed from there.

For example, take the 100k figure for the Reach and divide it with 20 houses and we are getting 5000 as an average. Then take the houses which are likely to exceed this average number greatly (Hightower, etc), subtract the surplus from the overall number and divide it again with 20. If the number deviates significantly from your estimates you can stop arguing about the Florents as a reference point.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I'm saying it can happen, in extreme circumstances. But the more powerful and sought after the prize is, the far less likely it will succeed. And that the claim being disputed is very, very likely. As indeed happened in the case of the Hornwood succession.

That isn't an extreme case, though. There are other potential Hornwood heirs yet the claim of the widow is the one that prevails with the 'support' of the Boltons. If Lady Donella had married Ramsay of her own free will that would have been a very tight and powerful alliance.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In the case of Lady Dustin, it seems far more plausible that there are additional reasons for the relatively secure rule she has over House Dustin, beyond just her marriage to Lord Dustin. And that it will likely come out over the course of the books.

That is not 'far more plausible' because we have no reason that such additional reasons exist. Lady Barbrey's power and authority is flashed out in detail in ADwD, especially when she talks with Theon at the wedding. It is quite clear that she is Roose's most powerful ally as well as the most powerful wedding guest (with the exception of the Freys).

The idea that she holds that power just because there was made some shady deal isn't very likely. Then she wouldn't be as powerful as she apparently is.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for a Lord Paramount's seat, I don't see it happening. Not practically, and not realistically. You are using wishful thinking in the extreme if you think Littlefinger's hold over the Vale would have any hope of surviving if Sweetrobin died, unless he had influence over Harry the Heir through Sansa. And if Harry then also died, without Sansa being pregnant with his child, well, then the hold would quickly vanish.

There is no reason why such a thing should only happen at a smaller seat. It is not a likely setting if there are plenty of powerful male (line) claimants around, or close female kin who married into powerful local families. But that isn't the case in the Vale. There are only Lord Robert and Harry the Heir. Who Harry's heir is we have no idea. In such setting it is not unlikely that the widow of the lord would be preferred to some quasi-peasant.

That is one of the things the show actually did right. 

Spoiler

Cersei could seize the Iron Throne in the books, too, if she had the power to pull it off. As Robert's widow and mother of the royal children she took part in his rule like any consort does. It wouldn't be easy and she would have a very bad legal claim but it is more than, say, Edmure Tully would have.

Mace could do a similar thing, actually, as father of King Tommen's wife. Although it would be much more difficult while the marriage has not yet been consummated.

3 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Maybe GRRM did not think about how to embed House Dustin into the lineage of the Northern houses on the same Level as he did for other houses. Apart from two times mentioning members of House Dustin, Lady Dustin is the first important character from the house to appear in the last book (ADWD). An interesting figure on herself. But I feel GRRM lost the in depth control of the world of Westeros at this point of the story. And maybe he did not even want to bother with that any more.

In light of the fact that we got a bunch of secondary and tertiary Harlaws in AFfC I find that very unlikely. Families don't seem to be all that numerous in the North, most likely due to the bad winters and the tendency to send spare sons to the NW. There are not only very few Starks, but also essentially no Boltons, very few Manderlys (Lord Wyman's line seem to be destined to be extinct in the male line), Mormonts, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Glovers, and Hornwoods. Only the Umbers and Karstarks seem to be somewhat numerous.

In that light it isn't surprising that Willam Dustin was the last male member of that house. Other Dustins might have died in the Rebellion, too. And if there were some distant cousins they could have died in the Greyjoy Rebellion.

[estermonty python]

On 1/13/2017 at 5:25 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

OK, I'll bite.

Firstly to deal quickly with your last point. The examples of ruling ladies mentioned rule in their children's stead until they come of age. Lysa Arryn would have no claim to the Vale if Sweetrobin died. Same with Lady Glover.

Now, in the absence of other, close heirs, or maybe even in their presence, I can easily see a widowed Lady ruling her House until her death or "retirement" (forcibly or not), but that is very different to becoming the heir herself, like some are suggesting Lady Dustin has become. I highly doubt that this is the case. She rules Barrowton. She is the Lady of Barrowton. But she is not likely to be the heir to Barrowton. And if she is, then it would have been the result of a rather significant deviation from the norm, which would have a larger back story than what we currently know.

As for your first question. We have lots of justification for placing the Dustins as at least the third most powerful vassal House in the North. This has all been hashed over many times, but to list a few reasons in brief:

1. They rule the second largest and second most populous settlement in the North (the largest for 7000 years until White Harbor was built).

2. They rule the largest territory of any Northern lord.

3. Their territory is on the southern edge of the North, thus located in a much warmer climate than other, proven powerful Houses like the Boltons, Karstarks and Umbers.

Since the Karstarks from a smaller territory, located 500 miles further north, and with no settlement even close to Barrowton in population, can raise 2750 men, it is very reasonable to give House Dustin at least 3000 men. And it could be significantly more, for all we know. Note that Barrowton is much larger than the Twins, for example, and one would think that the size of a region's capital would be in relation to the size of its total population, given that its size would be a result of the region's general economic activity. And in the North, it is logical that for a city or town to exist, you need an even larger rural population to support it than in the South, because of the lower productivity of the land. Hence, more peasants are needed to produce the units of food surplus required to support one townsman than would be needed to support the same townsman in the South.

In short, 3000 men or more are not unrealistic for the strength of House Dustin. Neither is an estimate of 4000 men. On a par with House Frey, perhaps- the most powerful House in the Riverlands.

As for wealth vs manpower. Well, given that only 1% of a region's population is raised to war, it is wealth and logistics, not population numbers, that determine military manpower. Hence, there is a rather strong correlation between being able to raise a large military, and the wealth of your region. Sure, it will not correlate perfectly, as some Houses may squander wealth on lavish lifestyles rather than on reserving it for military endeavours, but you cannot raise an army of thousands without having the economic means to support it. So the one goes hand in hand with the other.

In short, I think there is a strong case for House Dustin to be in the upper tier of vassal Houses in all of Westeros.

Good stuff.  Thanks.

First just a quick note: I believe you that this stuff has been hashed out in the past, but it's new to ME, and probably some other folks - after all, with so much time between books, there's nothing left to do but churn and re-churn old topics for new audiences, you know?

As to point one, I've always found it curious that control of population centers doesn't seem to have a 1:1 correlation with power and influence relative to peer houses.  Barrowton may be the second largest population center in the North, but it's still a town, not a city.  None of the Houses that control the towns in the Riverlands are more powerful than their peers, I don't think.  For example, I never got the sense that House Mooton was appreciably more powerful than its peers, even though it controls Maidenpool.  Likewise, House Cox and House Roote are insignificant at best, despite controlling Saltpans and Lord Harroway's Town, respectively.

I don't know that I buy that they rule a "much warmer climate" than some of the more Northern houses.  I get why you assume that, but there isn't actually any textual evidence to support it.  In fact, the only time we spend in the Barrowlands at all, the only thing said about it is that its cold and full of old graves.  

I guess my issue with the argument is that its all conjecture, without actual text to support the elevation of House Dustin to a more prominent position.  I agree that you can make a case based on logic and estimates and declaring certain numbers of troops "not unrealistic," but I just don't know that there's much hard evidence to support it.

The best argument as to the relative power and influence of House Dustin, actually, is that Rickard sent Brandon to be fostered at Barrowton.  That suggests that it WAS a particularly influential vassal house in the previous generation, and backs up all your conjectures.  Had the Southron Ambitions plot not taken precedence, we'd know a lot more about the relative power of the Northern vassal houses.

What makes me question House Dustin's prominence now is its absence in Robb's war councils.  We see a lot of political maneuvering with respect to which leaders of which houses are given places of prominent command, with the Umbers, Karstarks, Glovers, Manderlys, and Boltons all jockeying for influence.  The conspicuous absence of Dustin representatives always suggested to me that they weren't as powerful or important.  I think what you may be suggesting is that House Dustin consciously removed itself from the cause as much as it thought it could get away with, which explains its absence, and thus we can't draw any conclusions about its power, wealth, or influence because it turtled until the Boltons took over.  This is possible, I admit, and I hadn't really considered it.  I guess my counter is that if the Dustins were so powerful, I would have expected Robb, or Cat, or Luwin, or Rodrik Cassel, or SOMEONE to have raised a fuss about the Dustins not pulling their weight.  

[Colonel Green]

1 hour ago, estermonty python said:

As to point one, I've always found it curious that control of population centers doesn't seem to have a 1:1 correlation with power and influence relative to peer houses.  Barrowton may be the second largest population center in the North, but it's still a town, not a city.  None of the Houses that control the towns in the Riverlands are more powerful than their peers, I don't think.  For example, I never got the sense that House Mooton was appreciably more powerful than its peers, even though it controls Maidenpool.  Likewise, House Cox and House Roote are insignificant at best, despite controlling Saltpans and Lord Harroway's Town, respectively.

You could extend that to cities as well, in some case.  The Graftons control Gulltown, but they don't seem to be particularly big wheels in the Vale.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, estermonty python said:

Good stuff.  Thanks.

First just a quick note: I believe you that this stuff has been hashed out in the past, but it's new to ME, and probably some other folks - after all, with so much time between books, there's nothing left to do but churn and re-churn old topics for new audiences, you know?

As to point one, I've always found it curious that control of population centers doesn't seem to have a 1:1 correlation with power and influence relative to peer houses.  Barrowton may be the second largest population center in the North, but it's still a town, not a city.  None of the Houses that control the towns in the Riverlands are more powerful than their peers, I don't think.  For example, I never got the sense that House Mooton was appreciably more powerful than its peers, even though it controls Maidenpool.  Likewise, House Cox and House Roote are insignificant at best, despite controlling Saltpans and Lord Harroway's Town, respectively.

I don't know that I buy that they rule a "much warmer climate" than some of the more Northern houses.  I get why you assume that, but there isn't actually any textual evidence to support it.  In fact, the only time we spend in the Barrowlands at all, the only thing said about it is that its cold and full of old graves.  

I guess my issue with the argument is that its all conjecture, without actual text to support the elevation of House Dustin to a more prominent position.  I agree that you can make a case based on logic and estimates and declaring certain numbers of troops "not unrealistic," but I just don't know that there's much hard evidence to support it.

The best argument as to the relative power and influence of House Dustin, actually, is that Rickard sent Brandon to be fostered at Barrowton.  That suggests that it WAS a particularly influential vassal house in the previous generation, and backs up all your conjectures.  Had the Southron Ambitions plot not taken precedence, we'd know a lot more about the relative power of the Northern vassal houses.

What makes me question House Dustin's prominence now is its absence in Robb's war councils.  We see a lot of political maneuvering with respect to which leaders of which houses are given places of prominent command, with the Umbers, Karstarks, Glovers, Manderlys, and Boltons all jockeying for influence.  The conspicuous absence of Dustin representatives always suggested to me that they weren't as powerful or important.  I think what you may be suggesting is that House Dustin consciously removed itself from the cause as much as it thought it could get away with, which explains its absence, and thus we can't draw any conclusions about its power, wealth, or influence because it turtled until the Boltons took over.  This is possible, I admit, and I hadn't really considered it.  I guess my counter is that if the Dustins were so powerful, I would have expected Robb, or Cat, or Luwin, or Rodrik Cassel, or SOMEONE to have raised a fuss about the Dustins not pulling their weight.  

The Barrowlands are almost a thousand miles South of the Wall, on a similar latitude to White Harbor. Davos says that the wind at White Harbor feels "like a warm bath" compared to the wind at the Wall. It is a fact that the climate in the Barrowlands is far warmer than the climate in far northern areas like the Mormont, Umber, Karstark and Mountain Clan lands.

Not to mention that even if the Barrowlands had the same climate as these more northerly locations, it is also the largest of the contituent regions of the North. Combine this with its comparatively large capital, and the evidence certainly supports that it would have a larger population than the likes of the Karstark lands. And arguably, even than the Bolton lands.

We know the Boltons have demonstrated around 4000 men to date, without showing signs of falling back on old men or green recruits, like the Karstarks have. So the Boltons may well have as many as 5000 troops, at their full potential, if they go down to their dregs.

As for the lack of Dustin (or Ryswell) prominence in the early books. It seems quite evident by now that Martin has retro-engineered their prominence, and that originally the likes of the Umbers, Tallharts and Glovers were fleshed out in far more detail in his worldbuilding.

How is it, after all, that the Mormonts from distant, frozen, poor Bear Island feature so prominently in Martin's early story, while the rulers of Barrowton - capital of the largest Northern geographical region, and the second largest settlement in the North - not to mention being descendent of the original Barrowkings (who seem to have predated the Starks as pre-eminent House in the North - didn't even get a mention in Robb's war councils?

I suspect that Martin focused on fixing this error retro-actively, and therefore came up with a convincing back story in the case of both the Ryswells and Dustins, as to why they were absent from Robb's inner council of prominent lords. In the case of the Ryswells, he came up with the idea (note that the first we hear about it is only in Dance with Dragons), that House Ryswell is split between four quarreling lords, which divides their strength and thus robs them of a unified presence in his host. Note that while Ryswell men are mentioned in Robb's army, I don't recall a Ryswell lord ever being referred to amongst his leadership.

And in the case of House Dustin, while we hear of Willem Dustin from Ned's backstory at the Tower of joy, we  again only learn in Dance as far as I can recall, that there are no male heirs, and that Lady Dustin alone remains, (and held the bulk of her men back to boot), thus retro-engineering why the Dustins are not prominent among the lords in Robb's host either.

Consider that Martin even goes out of his way to give the Dustins prominence in his backstory of the Targaryen civil war, with Roddy the Ruin being given a significant leadership role there. Clearly House Dustin is a far more prominent House than many of those who were Robb's close councillors in his war council, including the Glovers, Tallharts, Mormonts, Cerwyns etc. So their absence there has to be explained by something else. Which is the backstory Martin started fleshing out in Dance.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

9 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

You could extend that to cities as well, in some case.  The Graftons control Gulltown, but they don't seem to be particularly big wheels in the Vale.

The difference is that there is no indication that the rulers of Gulltown, Maidenpool, Saltpans etc. rule major territories beyond their towns. House Dustin, by contrast, rules the entire Barrowlands, for hundreds of miles around. Almost 100,000 square miles of territory, in fact.

[Lord Varys]

33 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The difference is that there is no indication that the rulers of Gulltown, Maidenpool, Saltpans etc. rule major territories beyond their towns. House Dustin, by contrast, rules the entire Barrowlands, for hundreds of miles around. Almost 100,000 square miles of territory, in fact.

As usually, that doesn't mean that those lands are full of Northmen who want to be free ;-). While the smaller lands of the Southron lords ruling market towns in the Riverlands and the Reach might be have much more peasant on the same amount of land than the Northmen can feed.

However, I'm completely with you that the Dustins are one of the most prominent and powerful Northern houses. They rule the only town in the North, which certainly means something (although not necessarily as much as you want to mean it), they are descended from of the most important - perhaps even the oldest - line of First Men kings in the North, and they seem to be overall pretty powerful in ADwD.

Strength- and prestige-wise the Dustins are on the same level as the Boltons and the Manderlys. The Karstarks (a much younger house), the Umbers (much more primitive) seem to be in a different league entirely. As are the Glovers, the Tallharts, and a bunch of the others we have some information. The Ryswells and some of the other (apparently) smaller houses are difficult to assess. Them not being mentioned doesn't mean they are necessarily weak. Just look how the Hightowers turned out in AFfC.

But @estermonty python's point that there were no Dustins on Robb's councils nor in his army is a pretty strong point, actually, that there are no Dustin heirs of Lady Barbrey around. Presumably such people would not have shared Barbrey's hatred of the Starks and would have been very keen to please the Young Wolf and get close to him to ensure that they would get Barrowton sooner or later. And even if they shared her hatred they should still have wanted to gain glory and fame by kicking some Southron ass. Pretty much every noble youth wanted to ride down south with Robb. Just look at the Karstark sons.

[Greywater-Watch]

On ‎14‎.‎01‎.‎2017 at 6:36 PM, Lord Varys said:

In light of the fact that we got a bunch of secondary and tertiary Harlaws in AFfC I find that very unlikely.

My point was, that I think it likely, that at this point of writing (5th book) GRRM grew tired of elaborating and fittiing in all details. So from that point of view your comparison to AFFC does not hold.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

As usually, that doesn't mean that those lands are full of Northmen who want to be free ;-). While the smaller lands of the Southron lords ruling market towns in the Riverlands and the Reach might be have much more peasant on the same amount of land than the Northmen can feed.

However, I'm completely with you that the Dustins are one of the most prominent and powerful Northern houses. They rule the only town in the North, which certainly means something (although not necessarily as much as you want to mean it), they are descended from of the most important - perhaps even the oldest - line of First Men kings in the North, and they seem to be overall pretty powerful in ADwD.

Strength- and prestige-wise the Dustins are on the same level as the Boltons and the Manderlys. The Karstarks (a much younger house), the Umbers (much more primitive) seem to be in a different league entirely. As are the Glovers, the Tallharts, and a bunch of the others we have some information. The Ryswells and some of the other (apparently) smaller houses are difficult to assess. Them not being mentioned doesn't mean they are necessarily weak. Just look how the Hightowers turned out in AFfC.

But @estermonty python's point that there were no Dustins on Robb's councils nor in his army is a pretty strong point, actually, that there are no Dustin heirs of Lady Barbrey around. Presumably such people would not have shared Barbrey's hatred of the Starks and would have been very keen to please the Young Wolf and get close to him to ensure that they would get Barrowton sooner or later. And even if they shared her hatred they should still have wanted to gain glory and fame by kicking some Southron ass. Pretty much every noble youth wanted to ride down south with Robb. Just look at the Karstark sons.

Interesting points.

I would agree that the Barrowlands are most certainly less densely populated than the average part of the Riverlands. However, consider that from Jaime's visit, it appears that prominent Riverland lords like the Blackwoods or the Brackens appear to rule lands that cover a couple of valleys, a few hills, a few streams, etc. Say 30 miles by 40 miles, perhaps?  Make it 50 miles by 50 miles to be generous. That's 2500 square miles. By contrast, the Barrowlands stretch from the White Knife to the river that seperates it from the Rills, and from the Neck, about 250 miles or more northwards. That's perhaps 500 miles by 250 miles. 125,000 square miles or more.  That's fifty times the size of the lands of the lord ruling say Saltpans or Maidenpool.

Now, House Dustin will be less densely populated than those lands, sure, but we're likely talking 5 times less densely populated, perhaps. Remember, even Scotland was only about 2 times less densely populated than England during the Middle Ages. So even if the Lord of Saltpans rules an area of 5000 square miles (a massive 100 miles by 50 miles of land), House Dustin will still have 25 times his territory. And on a density ratio of 5-1, will still have 5 times his population.

Let's put it differently. The Barrowlands are about a third the size of the entire Dorne. And as empty as it may be, it won't be emptier than the deep desert. So a good fraction of Dorne's total strength would be a good estimate for the Barrowlands's strength. I think 4000 is a good estimate. Just under the Boltons, who in turn are below the Manderlys.

As for the Ryswells. They are not a "minor" house. They date back to the ancient tale of the Ryswell lord whose son was frozen into the Wall before the Andals came. And their lands are southerly by Northern standards, large (about half the size of the massive Barrowlands and equal to the Karstark lands in size)  and still more than 10 times the size of the lands of the hypothetical Saltpans at the generous estimate of 5000 square miles for the Riverlord. And apparenlty named for its plentiful streams (rills). And hinted to be prime horsebreeding territory.

It is also no coincidence that the Ironborn - in all their power - chose to attack the rather poor Stony Shore and Sea dragon point, Deepwood Motte and Torhenn's square, while avoiding the Rills and Barrowlands, which are both much closer to them. Clearly they realized that these areas would present much tougher resistance, just like the Manderly lands which they left completely alone despite having Victarrion camped in close proximity to all three these areas, at Moat Cailin.

 

 

[Bernie Mac]

There seems to be a pretty logical reason why there was no succession crisis and that is that the Ryswell's have Dustin blood. We know Ned's parents were cousins, Tywin and Joanna were cousins and the Whents were cousins. Perhaps Barberey and William were cousins. 

That would explain why Domeric was her Ward and possible heir while his mother still lived. 

[estermonty python]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

As usually, that doesn't mean that those lands are full of Northmen who want to be free ;-). While the smaller lands of the Southron lords ruling market towns in the Riverlands and the Reach might be have much more peasant on the same amount of land than the Northmen can feed.

However, I'm completely with you that the Dustins are one of the most prominent and powerful Northern houses. They rule the only town in the North, which certainly means something (although not necessarily as much as you want to mean it), they are descended from of the most important - perhaps even the oldest - line of First Men kings in the North, and they seem to be overall pretty powerful in ADwD.

Strength- and prestige-wise the Dustins are on the same level as the Boltons and the Manderlys. The Karstarks (a much younger house), the Umbers (much more primitive) seem to be in a different league entirely. As are the Glovers, the Tallharts, and a bunch of the others we have some information. The Ryswells and some of the other (apparently) smaller houses are difficult to assess. Them not being mentioned doesn't mean they are necessarily weak. Just look how the Hightowers turned out in AFfC.

But @estermonty python's point that there were no Dustins on Robb's councils nor in his army is a pretty strong point, actually, that there are no Dustin heirs of Lady Barbrey around. Presumably such people would not have shared Barbrey's hatred of the Starks and would have been very keen to please the Young Wolf and get close to him to ensure that they would get Barrowton sooner or later. And even if they shared her hatred they should still have wanted to gain glory and fame by kicking some Southron ass. Pretty much every noble youth wanted to ride down south with Robb. Just look at the Karstark sons.

I think @Lord Varys pretty much has the right of this.  I think it was mentioned at some point that Barbrey sent as few Dustin men as she dared.

 

8 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Interesting points.

I would agree that the Barrowlands are most certainly less densely populated than the average part of the Riverlands. However, consider that from Jaime's visit, it appears that prominent Riverland lords like the Blackwoods or the Brackens appear to rule lands that cover a couple of valleys, a few hills, a few streams, etc. Say 30 miles by 40 miles, perhaps?  Make it 50 miles by 50 miles to be generous. That's 2500 square miles. By contrast, the Barrowlands stretch from the White Knife to the river that seperates it from the Rills, and from the Neck, about 250 miles or more northwards. That's perhaps 500 miles by 250 miles. 125,000 square miles or more.  That's fifty times the size of the lands of the lord ruling say Saltpans or Maidenpool.

Now, House Dustin will be less densely populated than those lands, sure, but we're likely talking 5 times less densely populated, perhaps. Remember, even Scotland was only about 2 times less densely populated than England during the Middle Ages. So even if the Lord of Saltpans rules an area of 5000 square miles (a massive 100 miles by 50 miles of land), House Dustin will still have 25 times his territory. And on a density ratio of 5-1, will still have 5 times his population.

Let's put it differently. The Barrowlands are about a third the size of the entire Dorne. And as empty as it may be, it won't be emptier than the deep desert. So a good fraction of Dorne's total strength would be a good estimate for the Barrowlands's strength. I think 4000 is a good estimate. Just under the Boltons, who in turn are below the Manderlys.

As for the Ryswells. They are not a "minor" house. They date back to the ancient tale of the Ryswell lord whose son was frozen into the Wall before the Andals came. And their lands are southerly by Northern standards, large (about half the size of the massive Barrowlands and equal to the Karstark lands in size)  and still more than 10 times the size of the lands of the hypothetical Saltpans at the generous estimate of 5000 square miles for the Riverlord. And apparenlty named for its plentiful streams (rills). And hinted to be prime horsebreeding territory.

It is also no coincidence that the Ironborn - in all their power - chose to attack the rather poor Stony Shore and Sea dragon point, Deepwood Motte and Torhenn's square, while avoiding the Rills and Barrowlands, which are both much closer to them. Clearly they realized that these areas would present much tougher resistance, just like the Manderly lands which they left completely alone despite having Victarrion camped in close proximity to all three these areas, at Moat Cailin.

 

 

Look, if the point of this thread is that we should recognize that House Dustin is more powerful and important than many realize, I think that's fair, and I concede that point based mostly on the fact that Brandon fostered there.  I will also admit that it's interesting that Barbrey controls the Dustin forces even though there don't seem to be any actual Dustins around.  Arguing that they are some sort of juggernaut house is a bridge too far, though.  There's just no evidence in the actual text that this is true.  If it were, we would have heard a lot more about it, from Robb, Cat, Luwin, Rodrik, Theon, Roose, the Greatjon, Maege - SOMEONE - concerning the general paucity of Dustin troops sent to support the cause.  It just doesn't really seem to be on anyone's radar.  Arguments about what "must be" true based on studying a map simply must give way to what does (or does not) appear in the text, and arguing that GRRM has to retroactively "fix" the story to involve the Dustins more or that he "got tired" of world building (not that you said either of these, but others have) is lazy argument.  I buy that the Dustins are important; I don't buy that they are a major player to a greater degree than the other Northern houses, and certainly not to a greater degree than the other houses of westeros generally.

As for the Ryswells, it's just a question of semantics.  @Lord Varys didn't call them "minor," he just called them smaller, which they must be.  Unlike the Dustins, we know of at least 4 Ryswells ostensibly capable of military command, and they don't appear anywhere in Robb's war councils, and no one even mentions them or their absence.  This strongly suggests that they just aren't all that significant a house at this point in time. 

Structurally and thematically, the purpose of the Dustins and Ryswells seem to be to give the Boltons some allies; that allows for a fairer, more interesting fight, and could set up a more surprising betrayal down the road.  I don't think it's more than that.

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

There seems to be a pretty logical reason why there was no succession crisis and that is that the Ryswell's have Dustin blood. We know Ned's parents were cousins, Tywin and Joanna were cousins and the Whents were cousins. Perhaps Barberey and William were cousins. 

That would explain why Domeric was her Ward and possible heir while his mother still lived. 

Fun speculation, in the above scenario:

The Manderlys had Domeric poisoned after Lord Willem's death at the Tower of joy, to prevent a Bolton from potentially inheriting Barrowton through his Ryswell/Dustin lineage, if Lady Dustin had influence in naming the heir. That would have made the Boltons too powerful for their rivals liking. I would first have suspected the Starks, except for the fact that it is not the Stark style, and none of their vassals could really threaten them, even if the Boltons and Dustins united. But to the Manderlys it could have presented a very unwelcome situation.

Of course, it is mere speculation. I like your interpretation of the Ryswells having Dustin blood though. If you think about it, it is almost inevitable. They are neighbouring Houses, in the south of the North, and are bound to have had intermarriages in the last 100 years or so.

[Free Northman Reborn]

16 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

I think @Lord Varys pretty much has the right of this.  I think it was mentioned at some point that Barbrey sent as few Dustin men as she dared.

 

Look, if the point of this thread is that we should recognize that House Dustin is more powerful and important than many realize, I think that's fair, and I concede that point based mostly on the fact that Brandon fostered there.  I will also admit that it's interesting that Barbrey controls the Dustin forces even though there don't seem to be any actual Dustins around.  Arguing that they are some sort of juggernaut house is a bridge too far, though.  There's just no evidence in the actual text that this is true.  If it were, we would have heard a lot more about it, from Robb, Cat, Luwin, Rodrik, Theon, Roose, the Greatjon, Maege - SOMEONE - concerning the general paucity of Dustin troops sent to support the cause.  It just doesn't really seem to be on anyone's radar.  Arguments about what "must be" true based on studying a map simply must give way to what does (or does not) appear in the text, and arguing that GRRM has to retroactively "fix" the story to involve the Dustins more or that he "got tired" of world building (not that you said either of these, but others have) is lazy argument.  I buy that the Dustins are important; I don't buy that they are a major player to a greater degree than the other Northern houses, and certainly not to a greater degree than the other houses of westeros generally.

As for the Ryswells, it's just a question of semantics.  @Lord Varys didn't call them "minor," he just called them smaller, which they must be.  Unlike the Dustins, we know of at least 4 Ryswells ostensibly capable of military command, and they don't appear anywhere in Robb's war councils, and no one even mentions them or their absence.  This strongly suggests that they just aren't all that significant a house at this point in time. 

Structurally and thematically, the purpose of the Dustins and Ryswells seem to be to give the Boltons some allies; that allows for a fairer, more interesting fight, and could set up a more surprising betrayal down the road.  I don't think it's more than that.

Wrong.

The Ryswell lords clearly weren't even in the South, else they would not have returned from the Red Wedding. So it is not that they weren't prominent enough to be on Robb's war councils - while the mere Masterly Houses Glover and Tallhart were, as were Maege Mormont from probably the weakest and poorest Northern House. It was because they did not bother to go South themselves, at all. If they had, they would not have survived the Red Wedding. Note that not even the Dustins were spared at the Red Wedding, as Lady Dustin mentions that Barrowton lost men at the Red Wedding too.

So the Ryswells don't appear to have sent any of the three Ryswell sons, or the Ryswell father, south with Robb. Maybe they sent another son, who we don't know about yet. But if so, he would have represented at most a quarter of the Ryswell strength, if they are indeed as divided a House as they appear to be in Dance.

As for the Dustins. Look. I'm not sure what you mean by a juggernaut of a House, but in my book 4000 men don't qualify as that. It merely makes you a top tier, powerful vassal House. The Dustins are likely quite close to the Boltons in strength, but not as strong as the Manderlys.

The Freys have raised 5000 men to date, although this includes peasants with pitchforks. The Boltons have raised 4000, with no peasants with pitchforks mentioned yet. Plus their heavy horse alone appears to exceed 1000, which would mean a total strength of close to 5000 for them.

I'd imagine the Dustins in the 4000 range. Topping out the top three Northern Houses, behind the Boltons and Manderlys.

And the retro-active story fix is a proven occurence. Certainly in the case of Dorne, which originally had 50k men before being retro-actively downgraded by George in Feast/Dance. The scrapping of the 5 year gap necessitated a lot of changes in George's story. This might well be one of them.

Note for example that the Mountain Clans were not commented upon, despite apparently sending only a few hundred men to Robb, while having another 3000 or so to send with Stannis in Dance. If Lady Dustin sent 1500 men with Robb, she would have matched the contribution of the Manderlys, and likely exceeded the contributions of amongst others the Mormonts, Tallharts, Glovers, Cerwyns etc. Enough to not elicit any obvious comments about her lack of contribution.

 

[Lord Varys]

20 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I would agree that the Barrowlands are most certainly less densely populated than the average part of the Riverlands. However, consider that from Jaime's visit, it appears that prominent Riverland lords like the Blackwoods or the Brackens appear to rule lands that cover a couple of valleys, a few hills, a few streams, etc. Say 30 miles by 40 miles, perhaps?  Make it 50 miles by 50 miles to be generous. That's 2500 square miles.

Ah, you are aware that they were talking about the contested lands and territories claimed by both of those houses, not the size of their actual lands? Those are not even discussed. Think of those lands as comparable to Alsace-Lorraine, the territories that passed back and forth between France and Germany when we still liked kick some evil Frenchmen's ass. Germany and France are both a lot bigger than Alsace-Lorraine. The idea that the Blackwoods and Brackens would be such weak houses as you paint them here doesn't make a lot of sense. They are among the most prominent and powerful houses of the Riverlands.

20 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the Ryswells. They are not a "minor" house. They date back to the ancient tale of the Ryswell lord whose son was frozen into the Wall before the Andals came.

Actually, they would be older than that because that guy was never called the first Lord Ryswell. However, my point would be that the Ryswells are a less significant house because they are not of royal descent. That's an important feature in my assessment of the nobility and prestige of a noble family. The Darklyns, Mootons, Royces, Reynes, Boltons, Umbers, etc. all share to various degrees in that sort of special royal ancestry which puts them apart from lesser houses who were founded by ennobled commoners or knights.

The Dustins also share in such an ancient royal ancestry, perhaps even more than the others thanks to the fact that they are descended from those Barrow Kings who claim to have been the first Kings of the First Men in the North. The fact that they still control the seat of those ancient kings only adds to their prestige.

20 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It is also no coincidence that the Ironborn - in all their power - chose to attack the rather poor Stony Shore and Sea dragon point, Deepwood Motte and Torhenn's square, while avoiding the Rills and Barrowlands, which are both much closer to them. Clearly they realized that these areas would present much tougher resistance, just like the Manderly lands which they left completely alone despite having Victarrion camped in close proximity to all three these areas, at Moat Cailin.

Those were ruses, if you recall. Balon attacked the Stony Shore and Deepwood Motte to test the North's strength and then had Victarion cut them off from the forces in the South by taking Moat Cailin. Torrhen's Square was only attacked at Theon's behest as part of his Winterfell plan. Balon sort of had a similar plan by hoping the Lannisters would deal a mortal blow to Robb (which they did) and then by slowly grinding down whatever remained up there until Winterfell finally fell to him. That wasn't as unrealistic as it appears after his death if you keep in mind how strong the Ironborn are under Euron right now.

11 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

Look, if the point of this thread is that we should recognize that House Dustin is more powerful and important than many realize, I think that's fair, and I concede that point based mostly on the fact that Brandon fostered there.  I will also admit that it's interesting that Barbrey controls the Dustin forces even though there don't seem to be any actual Dustins around.  Arguing that they are some sort of juggernaut house is a bridge too far, though.  There's just no evidence in the actual text that this is true.  If it were, we would have heard a lot more about it, from Robb, Cat, Luwin, Rodrik, Theon, Roose, the Greatjon, Maege - SOMEONE - concerning the general paucity of Dustin troops sent to support the cause.  It just doesn't really seem to be on anyone's radar.  Arguments about what "must be" true based on studying a map simply must give way to what does (or does not) appear in the text, and arguing that GRRM has to retroactively "fix" the story to involve the Dustins more or that he "got tired" of world building (not that you said either of these, but others have) is lazy argument.  I buy that the Dustins are important; I don't buy that they are a major player to a greater degree than the other Northern houses, and certainly not to a greater degree than the other houses of westeros generally.

I'm not on board with @Free Northman Reborn's overly positive/patriotic fantasy numbers but the Dustins really are one of the more important Northern houses. Lord Roderick Dustin commanded the other major Northern army during the Dance, and another Lord Dustin was the only Northern lord aside from Lord Ellard Stark and Lord Manderly that showed up at the first Great Council at Harrenhal in 101 AC.

Both events sort of suggests that those families are more important than your average Northern house. Certainly more prominent or important than the Umbers and Karstark, possibly even the Boltons. Those houses are still very important in the North but the Dustins and Manderlys actually seem to be more prominent on a larger scale.

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

My point was, that I think it likely, that at this point of writing (5th book) GRRM grew tired of elaborating and fittiing in all details. So from that point of view your comparison to AFFC does not hold.

I don't think that argument works because George was writing ADwD since 2000. A lot of the chapters that only got published in 2011 in ADwD were already done when he published AFfC, and one assumes that Theon chapter introducing Barrowton and Lady Dustin was among them. Not to mention that ADwD did a lot world-building in Essos with TWoIaF expanding on the Dustins as a rather important Northern house (see above).

I actually think there is a point to many Northern houses only having a few or no cadet branches. It fits with the harsh lifestyle up there while the Lannister and the Tyrells are not likely to lose (m)any relatives to winter. Not to mention that they have to coin to feed them and grant them allowances so that they can enjoy their noble lives even if they are only second or third cousins. The Northmen most likely don't have the resources for this kind of thing. Even the Royces lack them, it seems.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Interesting, I just found this SSM from Martin:

Question:

That's it of those I came up with, although the web page has spurred one more question from others. You didn't block the Houses Ryswell and Dustin in the North as dead, and I said as much, but given that Lord Dustin and Ser Mark Ryswell fought and died at the Tower of Joy ... Were they the last of their houses? I don't think so, but I suppose one can't be certain, especially as no Dustins and Ryswells appear in the novels (both in the text and the appendicies.) Then again, neither are the Burleys or Liddles (I think), and certainly not the Flints of Flints Finger or any of the lords of Skagos.

Answer:

Well, Robin Flint is one of Catelyn's companions when she rides to Bitterbridge, though I never say which branch he's from, I don't think. No, there are still Dustins and Ryswells in the north, and maybe even in Robb's army. I mean, he had twenty thousand guys or near about when he marched south, I couldn't characterize them all. I have always figured that there are =dozens= of minor lords and =hundreds= of knights and such in all these armies. Simply because someone isn't mentioned doesn't mean they are not there.

The lords of Skagos, though... they are a special case. Skagos is a =real= backwater, with very little contact with the mainland. In theory, the island is part of the north and subject to Winterfell. In practice, they pretty much go their own way.

Also, was Mark Ryswell the lord of the house before his death?

No.

End quote

So, Martin himself, at the time of this quote in 1999, hadn't really decided on exactly how many Dustin or Ryswell men went with Robb. He says theyre "may" even be some in Robb's army. We now know, 15 years later, that Lady Dustin says that Barrowton lost men at the Red Wedding, and that some spearmen from the Rills were left by Roose to guard a crossing of the Trident. But from Martin's comment above, and from the lack fo major lords that accompanied them, it doesn't seem like there were too many of them.

And the fact that he refers to multiple Dustins still in the North, seems to suggest that at least at the start of the War of the Five Kings, there were still other "minor" branches of the House alive, apart from Lady Dustin.

 

[estermonty python]

59 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Wrong.

Compelling argument.  Thanks for the civil discourse.  

59 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Ryswell lords clearly weren't even in the South, else they would not have returned from the Red Wedding. So it is not that they weren't prominent enough to be on Robb's war councils - while the mere Masterly Houses Glover and Tallhart were, as were Maege Mormont from probably the weakest and poorest Northern House. It was because they did not bother to go South themselves, at all. If they had, they would not have survived the Red Wedding. Note that not even the Dustins were spared at the Red Wedding, as Lady Dustin mentions that Barrowton lost men at the Red Wedding too.

So the Ryswells don't appear to have sent any of the three Ryswell sons, or the Ryswell father, south with Robb. Maybe they sent another son, who we don't know about yet. But if so, he would have represented at most a quarter of the Ryswell strength, if they are indeed as divided a House as they appear to be in Dance.

I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make here.  That the Ryswells were being openly defiant?  If they are as powerful as you argue then their absence would have been felt and commented upon.

 

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the Dustins. Look. I'm not sure what you mean by a juggernaut of a House, but in my book 4000 men don't qualify as that. It merely makes you a top tier, powerful vassal House. The Dustins are likely quite close to the Boltons in strength, but not as strong as the Manderlys.

The Freys have raised 5000 men to date, although this includes peasants with pitchforks. The Boltons have raised 4000, with no peasants with pitchforks mentioned yet. Plus their heavy horse alone appears to exceed 1000, which would mean a total strength of close to 5000 for them.

I'd imagine the Dustins in the 4000 range. Topping out the top three Northern Houses, behind the Boltons and Manderlys.

And the retro-active story fix is a proven occurence. Certainly in the case of Dorne, which originally had 50k men before being retro-actively downgraded by George in Feast/Dance. The scrapping of the 5 year gap necessitated a lot of changes in George's story. This might well be one of them.

Note for example that the Mountain Clans were not commented upon, despite apparently sending only a few hundred men to Robb, while having another 3000 or so to send with Stannis in Dance. If Lady Dustin sent 1500 men with Robb, she would have matched the contribution of the Manderlys, and likely exceeded the contributions of amongst others the Mormonts, Tallharts, Glovers, Cerwyns etc. Enough to not elicit any obvious comments about her lack of contribution.

I'm not being a smartass, but is there actual evidence for these numbers, or are these all just made up conjectures?   They strike me as numbers that were crowdsourced as a result of the "how big are the relative northern houses" thread from awhile back.  

I dunno about Dorne - isn't it specifically explained by Doran that they've lead the Northern houses to believe that they have way more troops than they do?  

55 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

there are still Dustins and Ryswells in the north, and maybe even in Robb's army. I mean, he had twenty thousand guys or near about when he marched south, I couldn't characterize them all. I have always figured that there are =dozens= of minor lords and =hundreds= of knights and such in all these armies. Simply because someone isn't mentioned doesn't mean they are not there.

Right.  Exactly.  This just supports my broader point that the Dustins and Ryswells just aren't all that important to the story.  He even characterizes them as minor lords himself.  

 

58 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And the fact that he refers to multiple Dustins still in the North, seems to suggest that at least at the start of the War of the Five Kings, there were still other "minor" branches of the House alive, apart from Lady Dustin.

Do you think he means actual Dustins, or just "Dustin men"?  Sometimes he refers to Freys even though they aren't technically Freys, some of them are Vypriens, Haighs, etc.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not on board with @Free Northman Reborn's overly positive/patriotic fantasy numbers but the Dustins really are one of the more important Northern houses. Lord Roderick Dustin commanded the other major Northern army during the Dance, and another Lord Dustin was the only Northern lord aside from Lord Ellard Stark and Lord Manderly that showed up at the first Great Council at Harrenhal in 101 AC.

Both events sort of suggests that those families are more important than your average Northern house. Certainly more prominent or important than the Umbers and Karstark, possibly even the Boltons. Those houses are still very important in the North but the Dustins and Manderlys actually seem to be more prominent on a larger scale.

Hm.  So on the one hand I agree, not just because of Roderick Dustin but also because the heir to Winterfell was fostered at Barrowton, which is a meaningful event.  On the other hand, I have to admit I'm vaguely wary of reading too much into the relative power of houses more than a generation back, because we see how quickly fortunes change.  Who would have imagined 100 years ago that the Velaryons would become a house of minimal influence or importance, for instance?  And the rapid rise and fall of House Whent illustrates that looking more than a generation back for clues as to the relative importance of any particular house in the current timeline can be misleading.

I suppose what confuses me is the way Robb awards command posts.  These are presumably given partly on merit and partly to curry political favor.  Why, then, does he place such importance on securing the support of the Umbers, Karstarks, Manderlys, and Boltons, placing them in prominent command positions, and totally disregards the Dustins and Ryswells?   It's an incongruity I can't really figure out.  My best guess is that GRRM just doesn't think they're that important, so he doesn't mention them much.  Similar to his philosophy about Ned's mother. 

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So, Martin himself, at the time of this quote in 1999, hadn't really decided on exactly how many Dustin or Ryswell men went with Robb. He says theyre "may" even be some in Robb's army. We now know, 15 years later, that Lady Dustin says that Barrowton lost men at the Red Wedding, and that some spearmen from the Rills were left by Roose to guard a crossing of the Trident. But from Martin's comment above, and from the lack fo major lords that accompanied them, it doesn't seem like there were too many of them.

And the fact that he refers to multiple Dustins still in the North, seems to suggest that at least at the start of the War of the Five Kings, there were still other "minor" branches of the House alive, apart from Lady Dustin.

Sorry, it is crystal clear that George had no clue what the roles of the Ryswells and Dustins would be when writing this. Lady Barbrey most likely didn't even exist at this point.

9 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Hm.  So on the one hand I agree, not just because of Roderick Dustin but also because the heir to Winterfell was fostered at Barrowton, which is a meaningful event.  On the other hand, I have to admit I'm vaguely wary of reading too much into the relative power of houses more than a generation back, because we see how quickly fortunes change.  Who would have imagined 100 years ago that the Velaryons would become a house of minimal influence or importance, for instance?  And the rapid rise and fall of House Whent illustrates that looking more than a generation back for clues as to the relative importance of any particular house in the current timeline can be misleading.

You certainly are right there. And I'd be the first to acknowledge the fact that the fact that Roddy the Ruin commanded the Winter Wolves doesn't mean they were all his men. Merely that he was the commander of the army that marched down south, possibly at the behest of Lord Cregan.

Still it is a notable fact that a Dustin played such a role in the Dance rather than a Bolton, Karstark, or Umber.

And one certainly cannot repeat the fact often enough that houses don't have to wield equal power in any historical period. A lot of people don't care about that, though.

Quote

I suppose what confuses me is the way Robb awards command posts.  These are presumably given partly on merit and partly to curry political favor.  Why, then, does he place such importance on securing the support of the Umbers, Karstarks, Manderlys, and Boltons, placing them in prominent command positions, and totally disregards the Dustins and Ryswells?   It's an incongruity I can't really figure out.  My best guess is that GRRM just doesn't think they're that important, so he doesn't mention them much.  Similar to his philosophy about Ned's mother. 

I think that's because no Dustins were with Robb whatsoever because there are no longer any male Dustins around. Lady Barbrey sent a token force to Robb, possibly under the command of one of her bannermen. A Stout, or whatever petty lords do homage to Barrowton.

With no Dustins being with Robb - and Lady Dustin being a widowed woman - Robb had no reason to placate her or suck up to her people. He could afford to sideline whoever commanded the Dustin forces. And who knows? We only meet Robb at Moat Cailin when Cat arrives there. If the token Dustin forces arrived there before her Robb might already have expressed his displeasure about the size of that force, subsequently punishing Lady Dustin's people by placing them in the rear.

The Ryswells might actually have followed Barbrey's lead, also not sending all that many troops. But that doesn't mean they have all that many men, either. Just that few Ryswell men were with Robb.

[Free Northman Reborn]

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sorry, it is crystal clear that George had no clue what the roles of the Ryswells and Dustins would be when writing this. Lady Barbrey most likely didn't even exist at this point.

You certainly are right there. And I'd be the first to acknowledge the fact that the fact that Roddy the Ruin commanded the Winter Wolves doesn't mean they were all his men. Merely that he was the commander of the army that marched down south, possibly at the behest of Lord Cregan.

Still it is a notable fact that a Dustin played such a role in the Dance rather than a Bolton, Karstark, or Umber.

And one certainly not repeat the fact often enough that houses have to wield equal power in any historical period. A lot of people don't care about that, though.

I think that's because no Dustins were with Robb whatsoever because there no longer any male Dustins around. Lady Barbrey sent a token force to Robb, possibly under the command of one of her bannermen. A Stout, or whatever petty lords do homage to Barrowton.

With no Dustins being with Robb - and Lady Dustin being a widowed woman - Robb had no reason to placate her or suck up to her people. He could afford to sideline whoever commanded the Dustin forces. And who knows? We only meet Robb at Moat Cailin when Cat arrives there. If the token Dustin forces arrived there before her Robb might already have expressed his displeasure about the size of that force, subsequently punishing Lady Dustin's people by placing them in the rear.

The Ryswells might actually have followed Barbrey's lead, also not sending all that many troops. But that doesn't mean they have all that many men, either. Just that few Ryswell men were with Robb.

Well I actually agree. It is clear that Martin had not yet fleshed out the Dustin and Ryswell Houses at that point. He himself is not even sure what extent their participation in Robb's army is. That's why I'm so convinced that Lady Dustin's backstory and the curious case of the 4 quarreling Ryswell lords, each with their own banner, are deliberate, retro-active creations to plausibly explain the absence of prominent Dustin and Ryswell lords in Robb's army.

Just like Martin clearly didn't know which branch of House Flint Robin Flint came from, at the time of answering this question.

The Dustins sent Stout men with Robb, so it may be that she was content with that, and little more. And the Ryswells sent some spearmen, but again, no known lords.

What is also clear from Martin's answer, is the way in which he dismisses the lack of reference to the Ryswells and Dustins at the time. He says that there would be dozens of minor lords in the army, without having to name them all. So clearly, at the time, he considered them minor lords. In fact, I'm not that sure they even appear as principal bannermen to House Stark in the Appendix of the first book.

At the time, Martin's world was not fleshed out. And back then, the Karstarks, Umbers, Mormonts, Glovers, Tallharts and Boltons, with perhaps some Manderly's in the background, were his primary Northern Houses.

It was not until much later that he developed the Dustins and Ryswells. But their status now is very different to what it was in the beginning.