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NFL Divisional Playoffs: 3 games and Brady


Lord Lyman

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The refereeing in the second half is blatantly anti-Patriot. No single call is extraordinary, but practically everything has gone against them including calls where in the replay there does not appear to be a penalty at all. It's not quite blatant enough to turn the tide, but it's definitely keeping the Texans closer than they would otherwise be and I have never seen a home team treated like this. Is somebody on the refereeing staff interested in keeping the score within 16?

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12 minutes ago, Altherion said:

The refereeing in the second half is blatantly anti-Patriot. No single call is extraordinary, but practically everything has gone against them including calls where in the replay there does not appear to be a penalty at all. It's not quite blatant enough to turn the tide, but it's definitely keeping the Texans closer than they would otherwise be and I have never seen a home team treated like this. Is somebody on the refereeing staff interested in keeping the score within 16?

That was the line. Texans +16. Hmmm.

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41 minutes ago, trickster said:

Apparently Brady has tied a dubious record..he now has thrown the most INTs in post season history. Ties Brett "he's a gunslinger...having fun out there" Favre.

I would say not that dubious in Brady's case since it's simply the result of playing in so damn many playoff games.

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39 minutes ago, Ramsay B. said:

^^^ Really? I don't think they've been blatantly against the Pats at all. 

There was a stretch in the third quarter when they looked like they were -- they basically killed one of the drives without much input from the Texans and they hit Brady a couple of seconds after he got rid of the ball a couple of times before they finally got the roughing the passer penalty.

Anyway, it didn't matter at the end. The Texans' defense made the Patriots play about as badly as they had at any point during the year (except maybe the last game without Brady), but the Texans' offense is just terrible. That said, if the Patriots play like this in the next game, they will lose by a lot to either of the teams in tomorrow's game.

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51 minutes ago, Triskan said:

I would say not that dubious in Brady's case since it's simply the result of playing in so damn many playoff games.

Yes.  But the record is not an honour. Hence dubious. He has been an outstanding performer in the playoffs. This is just a statistic and takes nothing away from his real achievements. I wrote that post as a joke. 

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So, a couple of things.... 

First my prediction:

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So... (an upset in the Divisional Round) could happen again, right?  FUCK NO!  Brock Osweiler is fucking terrible, the Texans beat a THIRD STRING QB to get here after beating one of the worst divisions ever in the history of football- the AFC South and do not have JJ Watt.  Also, Tom Brady may have just had his best season ever.  Anmd they have a stingy defense and an actual running game.  Oh, and unlike the Jets who had defeated the Pats earlier that season, the Pats annihilated the Texans in week 3 with a third-string QB.  This will be the worst game of the week: Pats 34 Texans 10

Pretty close.  

Obviously, the Pats game was not great.  Brady threw as many INTs in this game as he had in the previous 12 and finished the game <50% completions and <70 passer rating; the special team fumbling that started v. Baltimore continues here and the Pats running game had almost all their yardage in garbage time.  The D also gave up a few long shots by Brock Osweiler and the Houston O - which is fucking terrible - was 1 to 3 plays from getting into this game for good.  At one point that Texans were playing like they believed (rightly) that the SHOULD have been winning. 

But with all that the Pats scored 34 points against the #1 D in the playoffs; they held (an absolutely atrocious) Houston O to only 16 points and with all the problems- the 3 turnovers, the shitty play and the anemic playing ... they covered a stupid 16 point spread and handily handled an inspired Houston team.  

Dion Lewis played the game of his career (mostly because he's usually hurt so doesn't make it to the playoffs) a rushing, a receiving and returned TD, NFL-playoff first.  Edleman also looked incredible with 130+ yards.  The O line played GREAT in the second half after making the adjustments needed after a TERRIBLE first half.  The Pats D, meanwhile, was great; creating 3 turnovers and holding the Texans, at one point, to 1 for 11 on third down and the Texans finished with an anemic 3-16 on 3rd down conversions.  That - and some inspired play calling - sealed this Pats win.  (Oh, and honorable mention to not losing Bennet for the playoffs on his knee bending the wrong way...) 

(Also, as far as the refs go... I sort of feel like it all evened out.  The refs missed a PI by Houston against Edleman; they got the bobbled catch by Bennet wrong [he was in, knee down, controlling the ball] and they should have called a roughing the passer the first time on Clowney.  But they eventually got all the right and I don't think they went horribly against the Pats. Also, if the NFL could, they would kill a small orphanage to solidify Cowboys v. Pats in the Superbowl).  

I mean, KC and Pitt both have MUCH better offenses, and KC's D is probably in the same strata as Houston.  Both would have done much better with what the Pats gave them.  But the Pats - even with all these advantages and gifts they gave Houston - still 1) won, 2) by double- digits, 3) against the #1 D in the NFL, and 4) covered the largest spread on the playoffs.  AND.. Belichick can beat the tar out of the Pats to prep them for KC or Pitt.  

Put it another way -- Atlanta looked AMAZING against Seattle ...  but the Pats beat Houston by more points.  

Speaking of Atlanta - exactly what I expected.  Seattle was sort of the fun pick this week and they were never that good this season.  Injuries, porous O-line and a flagging D all lead to this loss.  I predicted the following for this game:  

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I think they looked good against a hapless Detroit team, but they lost 3 of their last 6 games and were able to beat the Panthers, Rams and 49ers during that stretch.  Atlanta's offense is real and they are doing everything right.  I envision Wilson feeling like he has to do too much and throws a couple of picks, but most of the game is Ryan wailing on he Seattle D.  Atlanta 31 Seattle 17

That's pretty much exactly what happened, including the picks at the end of the game for Wilson and Ryan just going house on an overwhelmed Seattle D.  Atlanta cruised this game and Seattle were properly dispatched.  Atlanta looked really good, but I feel like they are the quintessential "All offense" team that gets creamed in the Conference Championship game. Maybe... 

 Overall, happy the Pats won, and REALLY happy they will have a lot to work on and will likely not face another D as tough as Houston during these playoffs.  And also happy that Bennett is fine and Hogan will likely be back strong.  With all that Said Pats have to play a fuck-ton better against whoever comes out Pitt v. KC.

 

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5 hours ago, Lord Lyman said:

He has more wins them 24 of them.

I don't think All-Time INT leaders in the Playoffs is a good metric for judging QB efficiency.  

So here are the top-ten QBs for INTs in playoff history.  The stats include games played, then TDs then INTs:

1. Brady: 32 games, 58 TDs, 30 INts
2. Favre: 24 games, 44 TDs, 30 INTs
3. Kelly: 17-21-28 (wow… that sucks)
4. Bradshaw: 19-30-26 (kinda better than I thought it would be) 
5. Manning, Peyton: 27-40-25 (very much in-line with Brady’s numbers) 
6. Marino: 18-32-24 
7. Big Ben: 18-24-21 (extremely mediocre)
8. Montana: 23-45-21 (wtf… no, really … WHAT THE FUCK!?!?!?”
9. Elway: 22 -27-21
Elway has an asterisk: he is the only guy on this list not to START all his playoff games; his first game he came in as a back-up and threw a pick.  
10. Staubach: 20-24-19

So, I just wanted to make a few comments on the list: there seems to be a clear line-of-demarcation between Brady, Favre and Manning and everyone else (save Montana who I will get to in a minute).  I will say that Brady's 58 TDs jumps out at you; its 11 more than his nearest competitor (Montana... we'll circle back to him, I promise).  People say all the time that “Well, it was a different era” and I agree, but only to an extent.  That logic proves pretty sound for Brady and Manning versus the “1980s class” (again, accepting Montana for a second).  Elway, Marino, Kelly and Bradshaw’s numbers (I know Bradshaw didn’t play in the 80s much).  Staubach is the classic “another era” guy (so its damn impressive he’s on the list, but his numbers are nearly indistinguishable from everyone else’s.)  But look at Big Ben: his numbers are virtually indistinguishable from the 80’s bracket; if it were the era why arn't more guys from this era on this list?  Its not just the playoff expansion and parity- Manning and Brady are just better.

Brady and Manning’s numbers are rarefied; even if you include additional playoff games and “parity” and whatever other buzzwords you want, their numbers stand out.  Favre’s do as well, but he’s a notch below them.  

But then there is Montana.  Fucking Montana was absurd.  He’s the only guy on the list with 2x as many Tds as INTs… IN THE PLAYOFFS… IN THE EIGHTIES where D-Linemen were basically allowed to sack you and then knife you and DBs hit WRs with two-by-fours.  Montana almost averaged 2 Tds per game!  Comparing him to Favre is silly.  Montana threw more TDs in fewer games and … a lot less picks.  Like… fuck … you know what?  I think he’s pretty good.  There, I said it.

But then …
Aaron Rodgers: 14*-31-8

Are you fucking me?  31 TDs in 14 games is better than 60% of the above list.  Yes, 14 playoff games is low (for now) but those are CRAZY numbers.  They are soooooo much better than guys we all traditionally say are top-tier Qbs.  

(* also, like Elway, Rodgers played in 1 playoff game as a back-up, but he did not even attempt a pass so I didn’t count it).  

So, not exactly sure what the INT leader list means except we can extrapolate a few things:

-The longer you play, the more chances you have for bad gad games.  This does not mean that your worst playoff games will be at the end of your career; far from it.  Brady did not play great last night, but he’s thrown more picks in 2 prior games (2006 v the Chargers he had 3; 2009 v. Ravens he also had 3); Manning’s worse playoff run, BY FAR, ws 2006 when he threw 7 picks… he won the Superbowl.  The fact is that if you play more you have more chances for bad games because you play more and more top-level defenses.  

-Guys who go to the playoffs a lot, throw a lot of picks overall because, well… they make it to the playoffs more.  Here is the list of most playoff appearances:

1. Brady
2. Montana
3. Bradshaw
4. Elway
5. Manning
6. Rex Grossman  Brett Favre
7. Ben Rothlesberger 
8. Troy Aikman
9 Roger Staubach
10. Joe Flacco.  

Its basically an identical listing with Aikman and Flacco supplanting Kelly and Marino) If you go to the playoffs you are ONLY playing against good teams (and the 2011 Tim Teebow Broncos).  That’s it.  You are going to throw picks.  Even Montana threw… a couple.  Seriously, his numbers are fucked. 

-Bad QBs don’t make it to the playoffs consistently and therefore there are going to be few in that category that drive down the metrics.  Kelly, Bradshaw, Big Ben and Marino had more INts than playoff games played, but only Kelly had more Tds than INTs.  IN fact only … Montana ... again… had the vaunted 2xs the TDs than INT metric that is the gold standard.  

-Aaron Rodgers’ teams suck.  They have to.  That guy is putting up astronomical numbers but the teams he has played for must blow because they should be winning more.  

Bottom Line: I don’t think the INT metric is THAT meaningful in judging great Qbs in the playoffs.  

… he said after his binkie threw two picks… 
 

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I'm constitutionally incapable of feeling badly for Osweiller since he's so unlikable, but he did have two really nice throws last night that were dropped.  There was the deep fade to Federowicz (sp) who basically fell down early, and then there was the deep bomb to Fuller that was perfectly thrown.  Had they hit that Fuller play the game would have become very interesting and he might not have had to press so badly on those final drives.  Let me be clear that this comment in no way means that I am sad for Brockstar.  

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58 minutes ago, Triskan said:

I'm constitutionally incapable of feeling badly for Osweiller since he's so unlikable, but he did have two really nice throws last night that were dropped.  There was the deep fade to Federowicz (sp) who basically fell down early, and then there was the deep bomb to Fuller that was perfectly thrown.  Had they hit that Fuller play the game would have become very interesting and he might not have had to press so badly on those final drives.  Let me be clear that this comment in no way means that I am sad for Brockstar.  

 

Why is Osweiler unlikable?

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11 minutes ago, sperry said:

 

Why is Osweiler unlikable?

He's a baby-ish, non-leader, he sucks, and when he makes mistakes he tries to do the body-language stuff  like mabye it was someone else's fault.

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Just read an article that Jerry Jones is prepared to use Romo if needed... What?!?!??!? I can see no reason other than injury to go to Romo. Dak has proved his self all year long. I'm a Skins' fan, so I'd love to see the Packers go up by 2 TD's and chaos ensue. I mean, I don't even u derstand the point of the article. Its Dak's team and that was made clear when Romo was healthy enough to play. Why is this even being brought up? I HATE the Cowboys, but to see them pull Dak because their down or whatever, goes against any football thinking. How would that show your confidence in your QB of the future? Jerry Jones never ceases to amaze me.

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16 hours ago, Altherion said:

The refereeing in the second half is blatantly anti-Patriot. No single call is extraordinary, but practically everything has gone against them including calls where in the replay there does not appear to be a penalty at all. It's not quite blatant enough to turn the tide, but it's definitely keeping the Texans closer than they would otherwise be and I have never seen a home team treated like this. Is somebody on the refereeing staff interested in keeping the score within 16?

What else would you expect?  And should the Pats make it to the super bowl, you can expect the same.  The NFL hates the Patriots, that much is obvious.  

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6 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

What else would you expect?  And should the Pats make it to the super bowl, you can expect the same.  The NFL hates the Patriots, that much is obvious.  

Based on previous playoff games that I've seen, I expect the refereeing to range from neutral to very slightly biased towards the home team. This is a rare one which I would say leans towards the away team (although it was only clear for a part of the game).

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1 hour ago, Triskan said:

He's a baby-ish, non-leader, he sucks, and when he makes mistakes he tries to do the body-language stuff  like mabye it was someone else's fault.

Agree with the body language thing. His last INT he badly overthrew the receiver and it looked like he was mad at the WR, and he was doing shit like that all game. The Fuller drop was bad and he wasted what was probably Osweiler's best pass of the year, but other than that he was a complete disaster.

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