The Southern Ambition wasn't created by the North.

[devilish]

There’s a very popular theory that Rickard was making powerful marital matchups for his kids in a bid to consolidate the North’s power and maybe match or even topple the Targ’s dynasty. Those who contest this theory tend to highlight the fact that Rickard tried to marry his children to sons and daughters of other Wardens and LP instead of those to Northern banner men

But who kick started this series of marriages? Who was the brain behind such strategy? That is kind of important because whoever started the whole thing might have been the brains behind it all. 

We know from Oberyn Martell, that Elia and himself arrived to CR few months after Joanna Lannister died. The Red viper say that Joanna was working on a betrothal between Martells and Lannisters that would have ended with either Oberyn marrying Cersei or Jamie marrying Elia. Unfortunately by the time they arrived to CR, Joanna died and Tywin was unreceptive to such deal. His plan was to marry Cersei to Rhaegar. Instead he offered Tyrion in marriage which was flatly rejected by the Martells.
Oberyn also said that previously they had travelled to other castles including Starfall, Arbor, Old Town, the Shield Islands and Crakehall. 

These two points are quite significant

a-    This whole thing started before Joanna died 
b-    None of the big houses were interested in the Martells. That includes Rickard and Hoster who are supposed to be the brains behind this power grabbing thing. 
Joanna died in 273 AC. Brandon was 11 at that age while Cat was probably younger. We also know that Brandon deflowered Lady Barbrey. Considering that she isn’t the kind to lose her maidenhood with somebody whose promised to another (+ its difficult to think that Brandon could have sex at age 11 with possibly a young girl) then we can safely say that Brandon’s betrothal was planned after Joanna’s death, possibly when he was 15 or 16 years of age. 

Another key element to all this is the fact that Tywin agreed of having Jamie marry Lysa Tully. Which makes you wonder why he accepted that? Some might suggest that Cat was already ‘booked’ for Brandon and they are probably right. However what fascinates me is the fact that Tywin still agrees to a marriage between his golden child and the Tully’s sloppy second. We’re talking here about a man who could only see his daughter marry a queen and we all know that the lion rated Jamie more then he rated Cersei.  I mean the Lannisters are far more powerful and richer then the Tullys and the Starks. Why would Tywin allow this union? Unless…..Hoster had something that Tywin needed ie girls to marry and the right connections. 

All fingers point to the Lannisters which is fair enough. Tywin was Aerys hand and Joanna was the queen’s hand maiden. They knew that Aerys was descending into madness long before others did. Aerys show during Tywin’s wedding must have panicked the Lannisters, encouraging them to start building alliances with other houses just in case things go wrong. Joanna being a good mother wanted her children as far away as possible from the crown as possible (ie Dorne). Tywin on the other hand saw an opportunity out of this ie by having Cersei marrying Rhaegar and then use a possible marriage deal between Jamie and the daughter of the official wheeler and dealer of Westeros (Hoster) to stage a coup against Aerys. 

Somehow along the lines Aerys noticed it and ruined the rebellion by having Rhaegar marrying Elia and by employing Jamie in the KG. However by that time the cat was out of the bag. Hoster knew that the king was mad and if a rebellion was staged then the Lannisters would stay out of it. He must have spilled the beans with Rickard whom in turn, he pushed a marriage between Robert and Lyanna + he sent Ned as ward to the Vale. 

[l2 0 5 5]

When you speak about the martell's, wouldn't you consider them part of the south already? I think when talking about southern ambitions you can only relate that to a northern thought. They historically don't participate in the events and intrigues of the south, which is where the idea of southern ambitions came from imo. 

[1000th Lord Commander]

8 hours ago, devilish said:

Another key element to all this is the fact that Tywin agreed of having Jamie marry Lysa Tully. Which makes you wonder why he accepted that? Some might suggest that Cat was already ‘booked’ for Brandon and they are probably right. However what fascinates me is the fact that Tywin still agrees to a marriage between his golden child and the Tully’s sloppy second. We’re talking here about a man who could only see his daughter marry a queen and we all know that the lion rated Jamie more then he rated Cersei.  I mean the Lannisters are far more powerful and richer then the Tullys and the Starks. Why would Tywin allow this union? Unless…..Hoster had something that Tywin needed ie girls to marry and the right connections. 

 

I would suggest that the birth order of Hoster's daughters wasn't much of a factor in the Lysa-Jamie match. Catelyn was betrothed to Brandon by this point, which eliminates her as a option anyway, and given that Hoster had a son who was expected to marry and have children of his own, Tywin wasn't expecting his grandchildren to inherit Riverrun. But you're right about the right connections. The Tullys are a neighbouring Great House, and could be used as an alliance against the Ironborn.

[devilish]

10 hours ago, l2 0 5 5 said:

When you speak about the martell's, wouldn't you consider them part of the south already? I think when talking about southern ambitions you can only relate that to a northern thought. They historically don't participate in the events and intrigues of the south, which is where the idea of southern ambitions came from imo. 

My thread is related to the popular 'Southern ambitions' theory which state that Rickard was the brains behind making alliances with other wardens and LPs through marriages to one day challenge or even topple the crown. Its not the case. The first attempt of intermarriage between two top houses occurred long before Brandon's and Cat's matchup, specifically when Joanna Lannister was still alive. In matter of fact Joanna suggested a marriage between Prince Oberyn & Cersei or Princess Elia and Jamie. 

It also make sense. At the time the Lannisters were the closest people to the Targs with Joanna serving as hand maiden to the queen and Tywin serving as hand of the king. Royal houses tend to avoid showing their dirty laundry to the public for fear of losing their crown so in all probability the Lannisters were the first to acknowledge Aerys descend to madness and they were probably the only ones to see that for a long time. Also as time go by they were becoming less of the king's favourites and more  of his target practice. Aerys harassing Joanna during Tywin's marriage not only costed her the job as queen's handmaiden but also humiliated Tywin in front of his bannermen. The Lannisters had the knowledge and the motive to build such alliances.  

Let us not forget what happened during the Defiance of Duskendale in 277ac ie just 2 years after Elia and Rhaegar announced they are betrothed. Tywin clearly endorsed Rhaegar as a better option to Aerys. The Lannisters weren't happy with Aerys and they were building the groundwork for a possible coupe d'etat

[devilish]

8 hours ago, 1000th Lord Commander said:

I would suggest that the birth order of Hoster's daughters wasn't much of a factor in the Lysa-Jamie match. Catelyn was betrothed to Brandon by this point, which eliminates her as a option anyway, and given that Hoster had a son who was expected to marry and have children of his own, Tywin wasn't expecting his grandchildren to inherit Riverrun. But you're right about the right connections. The Tullys are a neighbouring Great House, and could be used as an alliance against the Ironborn.

Cat was described as the most beautiful, diligent and intelligent of the two. Tywin was the kind to only want the best for his twins ie a prince for Cersei, the best of Tullys for Jamie. The very fact that he settled for Lysa while a Northerner took the more beautiful of the two flowers clearly show an urge from Lannister side to build alliances

 

[The Snow Bear]

Wow I completely forgot that Jamie was to be betrothed to Lysa. But if you think about it, were there suitable alternatives? 

Afaik there was no relevant female Arryn or Baratheon (Nor Targaryan for that matter)

Elia was married to Rhaegar

Lyanna was betrothed to Bob 

Cat was betrothed to Brandon 

If Tywin wanted a daughter of a leading house Lysa (and maybe Jenna and Mina Tyrell?) was (were) simply the only one(s) left.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Seems to me that the most likely manipulator behind such ambitions was the Citadel, rather than Tywin or Rickard or Hoster.

Maybe Lady Dustin conveyed truth to us, although Martin disguised it in the midst of her bitter tirade about losing Brandon to Catelyn.

If Maester Walys truly influenced Rickard Stark's betrothal of his son and daughter to Catelyn Tully and Robert Baratheon, could the Maester conspiracy not have extended much further? Even to influence Tywin to betroth Jaime to Lysa?

The Citadel is suspected of being behind the death of dragons, and perhaps they have also been scheming against the Targaryens in general for centuries. Overthrowing even a dragonless Targaryen dynasty would have required a solid alliance of Lords Paramount across Westeros. And the extent of intermarriage among the Great Houses in the last generation seems unmatched in history.

Arryn's and Lannisters marrying Tullys, Tullys marrying Starks and Starks marrying Baratheons. It is only the Reach and Dorne that seemed excluded from this arrangement, for some reason.

[estermonty python]

So, generally speaking, the preamble to the Southron Ambitions plot was that the regional Warden titles were activated during the War of the Ninepenny Kings, so the men who represented each region fought together and got to know one another.  Even though Tywin and Steffon weren't wardens yet, they were there as well.  We know Tywin, Steffon, and Aerys became close friends, and based on proposed and actual marriages we know that Tywin and Hoster became close enough to discuss a marriage alliance, Hoster became close enough with Rickard to discuss a similar marriage alliance, and Jon Arryn was close enough with Rickard and Steffon for both to send sons to be fostered at the Vale.    So the friendship chain looks like this:

        Aerys

     /            \

Steffon ---- Tywin

    |                \

Jon  ---------Hoster

   \                  /

     Rickard

 

That's not to say that, say, Rickard and Steffon weren't friendly, we just don't have any direct information connecting them - it's Ned and Robert that forged the friendship, not RIckard and Steffon.  But onto the Dornish question...

There's actually no information suggesting that the Martells even fought in the War.  They should have; I'm sure Martell soldiers fought in the war, but I don't think the Martells themselves had men of fighting age.  Oberyn would have been an infant, Dorne was ruled by a woman at the time, and Doran would have been 12 or 13, and he was probably still squiring with Lord Gargalan at Salt Shore.  Theoretically he could have fought in the war, but I doubt it, and even if he did he would have been so much younger than the other heirs and Wardens that he wouldn't have got on socially with them.  So that would explain why House Martell was left out of the club.

My sense of the Lannister - Martell match was that it had nothing to do with Tywin, and everything to do with Elia's mother and Joanna being close from their time in King's Landing.  Clearly it wasn't something that Elia's mother necessarily was counting on, as she took Elia and Oberyn to a lot of different keeps before Casterly Rock (Oldtown, Crakehall, etc).  The fact that Tywin rejected Elia's mother suggests that there was a club, and the Martells weren't in it.  

In theory, the Southron Ambitions plot could have actually included the Targaryens, at least in its infancy.  If Aerys had stayed close with Tywin and Steffon, its easy to imagine a series of marriage alliances binding at least 5 ruling houses of Westeros:

Crownlands: Cersei Lannister - Rhaegar Targaryen

Westerlands: Jaime Lannister - Lysa Tully

Riverlands: Edmure Tully - ?

North: Brandon Stark - Catelyn Tully

Stormlands: Robert Baratheon - Lyanna Stark

Plus the fostering relationship with Jon Arryn connects the Vale to the Stormlands and the North as well.  

This series of interlocking marriages does not include the Tyrells (who are simply not mentioned at all during this time period - Mace would have only been 4 years old or so and we don't know anything about when Luthor died), Martells, or Greyjoys.  The Greyjoy exclusion is kind of shitty for them, as Quellon Greyjoy actually did quite a bit to assist in the War of the Ninepenny Kings, but such is life.  

It's not a stretch to imagine that a sane Aerys may have looked to the Martells for a match for his younger children, based on tradition.  The fact that he was so close with Steffon as well, suggests that a Stannis - Daenerys match would have been possible, leaving an Elia - Viserys match as similarly likely.  

[Bael's Bastard]

I have no doubt that Hoster had his own big picture plans, but I don't think he was instrumental in creating Rickard's alleged "Southron Ambitions." And while I find it plausible that Maester Walys might have influenced or helped Rickard cultivate his ideas, without knowing when he went to Winterfell, I am not sure how instrumental he actually as far as Rickard's root ambition goes. Nor do I think Rickard had making alliances against the Targaryens, or even to defend against the Targaryens, in mind.

Rickard visited King's Landing in 264, the year after Ned was born, a visit which awakened King Aerys' interest in the North and the Wall.

Rickard sent Ned to foster with Jon Arryn in the Eyrie when Ned was eight years old, so around 271. Steffon Baratheon, King Aerys' cousin and one of his oldest and most trusted friends, also sent his heir Robert to foster with Jon, during which time Ned and Robert became close friends, and Jon became as a second father to both. This was long before Aerys was recognized as being a potential danger to any of them.

I don't recall an explicit year for the betrothal between Brandon Stark and Catelyn Tully, but I seem to recall that the data we have puts the betrothal somewhere around the Defiance of Duskendale, possibly right before, during, or right after. At which time Aerys did not yet have the sort of reputation which would have led the great houses to plot with each other to protect themselves against him and his house.

Rickard promised Lyanna's hand to Robert Baratheon some time after Robert's bastard daughter Mya had been born, seemingly a couple year or more after the Brandon/Catelyn betrothal.

I think that if Rickard truly had "Southron Ambitions," they were first and foremost rooted in his own desires, and I think his ultimate desire was for his descendants to marry into the Targaryen royal family, and have descendants on the Iron Throne. Before Aerys and Jaehaerys married their sisters, and before Prince Duncan married Jenny, Lyonel Baratheon's daughter was supposed to become Duncan's wife and eventual queen, and Celia Tully was supposed to marry Jaehaerys.

Rickard had Ned fostered in a situation which allowed him to become great friends with the next Lord of Storm's End, a friendship which helped facilitate the betrothal of Lyanna to Robert. And a child of Lyanna and Robert would be in a great position to marry into the Targaryen royal family. Arguably, if Robert had been a woman, that woman might have been one of the top candidates to marry Rhaegar. And in Catelyn, Rickard had set his son up to take a wife from one of the last non-Targaryen families to have been considered worthy to marry into the royal family.

In hindsight, these betrothals certainly made it easier for those great houses to come together against Aerys. But, at least when it comes to Rickard, I don't think that was the intention. And even after Rickard and Brandon were killed, Hoster had to be brought into the war before the second to last major battle with marriages of his two daughters to two of the three rebel leaders. 

[ThePrinceThatKnewNothing]

I don't think it matters if Jaime married Lysa instead of Cat. First born and heirs didn't necessarily marry first borns and heirs. For years Lords married a daughter from their bannermen. The whole point of this alliance was to join the great houses. Jaime in Tywins eyes was heir to the rock, so it wouldn't matter if his grandchildren were heir to Riverrun or not. 

[Nocturne]

On 1/16/2017 at 7:35 PM, devilish said:

There’s a very popular theory that Rickard was making powerful marital matchups for his kids in a bid to consolidate the North’s power and maybe match or even topple the Targ’s dynasty. Those who contest this theory tend to highlight the fact that Rickard tried to marry his children to sons and daughters of other Wardens and LP instead of those to Northern banner men

But who kick started this series of marriages? Who was the brain behind such strategy? That is kind of important because whoever started the whole thing might have been the brains behind it all. 

We know from Oberyn Martell, that Elia and himself arrived to CR few months after Joanna Lannister died. The Red viper say that Joanna was working on a betrothal between Martells and Lannisters that would have ended with either Oberyn marrying Cersei or Jamie marrying Elia. Unfortunately by the time they arrived to CR, Joanna died and Tywin was unreceptive to such deal. His plan was to marry Cersei to Rhaegar. Instead he offered Tyrion in marriage which was flatly rejected by the Martells.
Oberyn also said that previously they had travelled to other castles including Starfall, Arbor, Old Town, the Shield Islands and Crakehall. 

These two points are quite significant

a-    This whole thing started before Joanna died 
b-    None of the big houses were interested in the Martells. That includes Rickard and Hoster who are supposed to be the brains behind this power grabbing thing. 
Joanna died in 273 AC. Brandon was 11 at that age while Cat was probably younger. We also know that Brandon deflowered Lady Barbrey. Considering that she isn’t the kind to lose her maidenhood with somebody whose promised to another (+ its difficult to think that Brandon could have sex at age 11 with possibly a young girl) then we can safely say that Brandon’s betrothal was planned after Joanna’s death, possibly when he was 15 or 16 years of age. 

Another key element to all this is the fact that Tywin agreed of having Jamie marry Lysa Tully. Which makes you wonder why he accepted that? Some might suggest that Cat was already ‘booked’ for Brandon and they are probably right. However what fascinates me is the fact that Tywin still agrees to a marriage between his golden child and the Tully’s sloppy second. We’re talking here about a man who could only see his daughter marry a queen and we all know that the lion rated Jamie more then he rated Cersei.  I mean the Lannisters are far more powerful and richer then the Tullys and the Starks. Why would Tywin allow this union? Unless…..Hoster had something that Tywin needed ie girls to marry and the right connections. 

All fingers point to the Lannisters which is fair enough. Tywin was Aerys hand and Joanna was the queen’s hand maiden. They knew that Aerys was descending into madness long before others did. Aerys show during Tywin’s wedding must have panicked the Lannisters, encouraging them to start building alliances with other houses just in case things go wrong. Joanna being a good mother wanted her children as far away as possible from the crown as possible (ie Dorne). Tywin on the other hand saw an opportunity out of this ie by having Cersei marrying Rhaegar and then use a possible marriage deal between Jamie and the daughter of the official wheeler and dealer of Westeros (Hoster) to stage a coup against Aerys. 

Somehow along the lines Aerys noticed it and ruined the rebellion by having Rhaegar marrying Elia and by employing Jamie in the KG. However by that time the cat was out of the bag. Hoster knew that the king was mad and if a rebellion was staged then the Lannisters would stay out of it. He must have spilled the beans with Rickard whom in turn, he pushed a marriage between Robert and Lyanna + he sent Ned as ward to the Vale. 

Maybe i've read this wrong, but i don't see how any of this negates that Rickard had big plans for the future, this simply shows that the Lion was  scheming as well, nothing more or less.

As to far more rich then the Starks that's highly debatable, considering that at the point the gold mines have probably all but dried up. Starks had the first daughter which surely matters a lot more then getting the second daughter in a political alliance.

Getting the second daughter is more among the lines of saying: yeah mate we cool for now, can't guarantee anything about the future, but for now we cool fam.

 

 

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Nocturne said:

As to far more rich then the Starks that's highly debatable, considering that at the point the gold mines have probably all but dried up. Starks had the first daughter which surely matters a lot more then getting the second daughter in a political alliance.

Is there any evidence to suggest that?

[devilish]

1 hour ago, Nocturne said:

Maybe i've read this wrong, but i don't see how any of this negates that Rickard had big plans for the future, this simply shows that the Lion was  scheming as well, nothing more or less.

As to far more rich then the Starks that's highly debatable, considering that at the point the gold mines have probably all but dried up. Starks had the first daughter which surely matters a lot more then getting the second daughter in a political alliance.

Getting the second daughter is more among the lines of saying: yeah mate we cool for now, can't guarantee anything about the future, but for now we cool fam.

 

 

If Rickard was doing the groundworks for a possible revolt then surely he would at least try to get the Martells to join his cause. Dorne might not be a powerhouse but they are more prone to rebel then the Baratheons are. The Martells have more loyal bannermen then Robert does, their land is extremely difficult to invade and they can raise more or less the same amount of troops. Yet, Rickard is simply not interested in them. He’s not interested in the Lannisters either and that despite the fact that the lion is probably more powerful than the Stag and Dorne put together and was being constantly poked by the dragon.  Under such circumstances you wonder what sort of revolt was Rickard planning considering that both houses would have certainly been an asset to his cause. 

That thought convinced me to focus on who started this unprecedented spike of marriage deals and guess what, the Lannisters name popped up, specifically Joanna. That makes sense on many levels. Mad kings tend to put his dynasty in jeopardy especially if he’s got absolute power. Such things tend to be kept hidden with outsiders with access to the king being on a need to know basis. That would explain why Brandon and then Rickard foolishly went to KL seeking justice. However such secret couldn’t be kept with the Lannisters as Tywin was hand of the king and Joanna was the queen’s hand maiden and with Aerys using the Lannisters as target practice then its only fair for them to make contingency plans just in case crap hits fans. 
Another family who probably knew what was going on were the Hightowers. Gerold Hightower was the commander of the kingsguard and must have seen firsthand what Aerys was doing. Gerold’s loyalty to the king was absolutely but as Hightower he probably gave advice to his house to stay as far as possible from Aerys as he’s not 100% sane. This information might have reached Walys maester of the Rickard Stark. As a Hightower bastard Walys probably loved Gerold enough not to spill the beans as that might cause Gerold’s head. However as a maester he was also bound to give some sound advice to his Liege Lord and he probably did that by persuading Rickard to become closer to other wardens/LPs by marrying off his sons and daughters to LPs sons & daughters and sending Ned to the Vale. 

Anyway lets return to the Lannisters I suspect that after her wedding Joanna was left scarred by Aerys. As time gone by and Aerys grew hostile towards the Lannisters her urgency to defend her children grew bigger. A marriage deal with Dorne made sense as no Targ king would dare pissing off the Dornish, knowing how difficult it would be to force them to bend their knee. When Joanna died, the responsibility of taking care of the kids fell on Tywin. Tywin was aware of Aerys increase hostility towards the lion but saw this issue as an opportunity rather than a threat. His plan was to marry Cersei to Rhaegar and then build the necessary alliances needed for the crown prince to seize power. This became quite clear at the defiance of Duskendale were Tywin clearly said that Rhaegar would be a better king than his father was  

Anyway during that period (between Joanna’s death and the Duskendale incident) Tywin might have spilled the beans to Hoster. Hoster being Hoster knew that the lion was desperate to seal a deal and therefore he pushed his lesser asset in marriage to Jamie (ie Lysa), keeping his best asset (ie Cat) for a warden who was far less desperate (ie Rickard’s son). He probably kept Tywin’s secret about Aerys to himself, knowing that even the mere suggestion of oath breaking would probably scare the wolf away. With the Lannisters and the Starks at his side, the Tullys were well protected. 

Unfortunately for them Aerys had figured out Tywin’s plan and he ruined it by having Rhaegar marry Elia and appointing Jamie to KG. What Aerys might not have figured out was that the cat was out of the bag and Hoster knew about his madness. At that point, Tywin retired at CR, but Hoster’s game was pretty much on. That explains why, from all places, Harrenhal was chosen for a grand tournament meant for Rhaegar to build his allies and would also explain who had probably paid for that lavish tournament. With Tywin either joining the revolt or staying neutral and the Martells supporting Rhaegar. All Hoster had to do was
a-    Get to Rhaegar’s side
b-    Consolidate the deal with the Starks (whom in turn would drag the Baratheons into war)
c-    Marry off his other daughter to a warden/LP

Once Rhaegar becomes king then he will surely be grateful for the service rendered by the Tullys. That might mean more lands and a possible marriage between Rhaegar’s daughter and Edmure. 

The plan was again foiled by Aerys presence in Harrenhal and by Rhaegar acting like an idiot by kidnapping Lyanna. This lead an ignorant Brandon and later Rickard to fall in Aerys trap, nearly destroying Hoster plan completely. Which explains why a disillusioned Hoster who was an inch far away from increasing his influence only to see it being snatched away from him might have taken his time to join the rebellion and would only do so if Ned marries Cat and Arryn marries Lysa. It also explains why neither Benjen nor Ned knew anything about Rickard’s so called plan despite being the Warden of the North sons. There were no Southern ambitions but just an influential maester who convinced his Lord to build bridges with the outside world for fear that the crazy dragon might decide to have wolf pups for breakfast and a trout who was eager to make friends to keep him safe and who know maybe increase his influence.

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Is there any evidence to suggest that?

Nope. George has said that the Lannisters are as rich as their appear to be. Repeatedly. They are rich as hell and famous for that even in Asshai.

Thanks for the great comment up there.

This Citadel conspiracy and Southron ambitions has really grown out of proportion. The Citadel as an overall anti-magic agenda and (historically) maesters might even have been involved in certain conspiracies (I'm looking at you, Grand Maester Munkun) but there is actually no reason to believe that Maester Walys caused Lord Rickard to have those Southron ambitions he supposedly had. Rickard might just have used Walys and his connections to help him with his ambitions, and the man finally making the decisions about Brandon's and Lyanna's marriages would have been Rickard, not his maester.

Barbrey is looking for a man to blame for the fact that she wasn't allowed to marry Brandon. She might be unwilling to see or admit to herself that Brandon and Rickard both favored Catelyn over Barbrey. She might just have been Brandon's bed bunny to kill time while he was in the Rills.

And the fact that Barbrey's own misgivings towards the maesters (which seem to originate with Maester Walys) comes up in connection with her complaining about the Brandon thing doesn't mean they are connected. Barbrey could just be George's tool to expand on the idea of a Citadel conspiracy against the dragons and magic he first hinted at in AFfC. The maesters and their machinations/abilities to influence things behind the scenes are becoming a big part of the plot now, and he somehow has to lay the groundwork for that.

The idea that the Citadel actually wanted to form some great houses alliance against the Targaryens through unconnected betrothals makes not much sense to me. Especially since Robert's Rebellion didn't actually eradicate the Targaryen bloodline. Robert is a Targaryen through the female line, too.

[Chaircat Meow]

IMO there were two different anti-Aerys plots.

The first was led by Lord Tywin and its aim was to depose Aerys and install King Rhaegar and Queen Cersei in his place. This scheme was anti-Aerys but pro-Targaryen. It was motivated by Lord Tywin's need for revenge. Aerys had treated him spitefully and then, probably, raped his wife in KL in 272 (possibly producing Tyrion). Tywin was pretending to serve Aerys but was encouraging Rhaegar to marry Cersei and take over. He was trying to get Aerys killed at Duskendale but Barristan messed that up.

The second plot was led by some combination of Lords Stark, Arryn and Tully, and was encouraged (or perhaps even originated) by the maesters. I believe this plot was anti-Aerys and anti-Targaryen. Its aim was to rid westeros of the magical Targaryen dynasty and install King Robert and Queen Lyanna in their place. I think this plot had to be anti-Targaryen because this is the only reason for the maesters to be involved. We know they wanted rid of the dragons (and the threat of their return) and so they will have wanted rid of the magical dragon-obsessed dynasty. Robert had Targ blood too, but his family had no real attachment to or awareness of its Valyrian past. The motive for Stark and Arryn was to control westeros by having their man (Robert) as king, with the Starks the in-laws. They were concerned about the Taryargen unsuitability, madness and Aegon V's attempts to revive the dragons and introduce reforms to help the smallfolk. Also just plain old ambition.

I believe Tywin intervened at the end of Robert's Rebellion in the way he did because Jon Arryn promised him Robert's hand for Cersei if he tried to take care of the Targaryen heirs. However, this represented an alteration in Tywin's original plan, which was to sustain the Targaryens but marry into them.

I believe the proposed Lannister-Martell marriages were not part of Tywin's anti-Aerys plot but the alternative to it. He scrapped them when Joanna died and he decided to go all out for revenge.

[Chaircat Meow]

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope. George has said that the Lannisters are as rich as their appear to be. Repeatedly. They are rich as hell and famous for that even in Asshai.

Thanks for the great comment up there.

This Citadel conspiracy and Southron ambitions has really grown out of proportion. The Citadel as an overall anti-magic agenda and (historically) maesters might even have been involved in certain conspiracies (I'm looking at you, Grand Maester Munkun) but there is actually no reason to believe that Maester Walys caused Lord Rickard to have those Southron ambitions he supposedly had. Rickard might just have used Walys and his connections to help him with his ambitions, and the man finally making the decisions about Brandon's and Lyanna's marriages would have been Rickard, not his maester.

Barbrey is looking for a man to blame for the fact that she wasn't allowed to marry Brandon. She might be unwilling to see or admit to herself that Brandon and Rickard both favored Catelyn over Barbrey. She might just have been Brandon's bed bunny to kill time while he was in the Rills.

And the fact that Barbrey's own misgivings towards the maesters (which seem to originate with Maester Walys) comes up in connection with her complaining about the Brandon thing doesn't mean they are connected. Barbrey could just be George's tool to expand on the idea of a Citadel conspiracy against the dragons and magic he first hinted at in AFfC. The maesters and their machinations/abilities to influence things behind the scenes are becoming a big part of the plot now, and he somehow has to lay the groundwork for that.

The idea that the Citadel actually wanted to form some great houses alliance against the Targaryens through unconnected betrothals makes not much sense to me. Especially since Robert's Rebellion didn't actually eradicate the Targaryen bloodline. Robert is a Targaryen through the female line, too.

If GrrM wants to hint that the Citadel were involved with Rickard's scheme he needs to find a natural way to insert that into the conversation. Have you considered that GrrM giving Barbrey a personal motivation to bring up the maester's involvement (i.e. her bitterness) is simply the way a talented author avoids doing a clunky info dump.

[Lord Varys]

25 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

If GrrM wants to hint that the Citadel were involved with Rickard's scheme he needs to find a natural way to insert that into the conversation. Have you considered that GrrM giving Barbrey a personal motivation to bring up the maester's involvement (i.e. her bitterness) is simply the way a talented author avoids doing a clunky info dump.

Sure, but it doesn't make sense having Marwyn drop some hints about a Citadel conspiracy against magic and a maester feeding Rickard the idea that he should better the reputation of himself and his house in the South. The Starks usually are ignored by the other great houses of the Realm because they live in a remote backwater region. That's what Rickard wanted to change, not topple the Targaryens.

The Lyanna-Robert match came to pass because Robert asked for Lyanna's hand. He saw her once or twice, perhaps when the Starks visited Ned and the Stark cousins in the Vale, and then he approached Lord Rickard about Lyanna's hand through Ned. That's not a conspiracy, it is a historical accidents.

[Free Northman Reborn]

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but it doesn't make sense having Marwyn drop some hints about a Citadel conspiracy against magic and a maester feeding Rickard the idea that he should better the reputation of himself and his house in the South. The Starks usually are ignored by the other great houses of the Realm because they live in a remote backwater region. That's what Rickard wanted to change, not topple the Targaryens.

The Lyanna-Robert match came to pass because Robert asked for Lyanna's hand. He saw her once or twice, perhaps when the Starks visited Ned and the Stark cousins in the Vale, and then he approached Lord Rickard about Lyanna's hand through Ned. That's not a conspiracy, it is a historical accidents.

You really have an obsession to reduce the significance of all things related to the Starks or the North. I find it somewhat intriguing, to be honest. It creeps into virtually every topic you participate in.

The Starks aren't looked down upon by other Houses for being less powerful or having less status than Southron Great Houses. That is simply not the case. They are highly respected, in fact. Tywin refers to Sansa as being of the "highest birth". Littlefinger is convinced that if Sansa unveils her Stark colours when wedding Harry the lords of the Vale will flock to her support to regain her birthright.  Nor are the Starks ignored in major political matters. During the Dance envoys were sent to White Harbor and Winterfell to garner the North's support.

The Starks may be ignored to the extent that their homeland is distant, and most people - even lords - will never visit it in their entire lives. And communication over such distances in a medieval context is a challenge. This is a logistical issue, not a status issue.

Furthermore, it is the Starks that are generally insular and uninterested in the South. They are effectively a separate kingdom with a different culture and religion, united into this Empire of Westeros by force of Dragons, not by choice. And with no interest in the unifying Faith of the Seven and its associated cultural ties to the South.

In any case, the era just before Robert's Rebellion was unusual in terms of the large number of inter-Great House marriages that were being pursued. Something was up. It wasn't just Rickard looking for Southron influence for the sake of vanity. Even the Martells were looking to marry Elia to Jaime or Oberyn to Cersei.

Heck, I hesitate to be the one falling back to the ultimate explanation for coincidences again, but perhaps Bloodraven was manipulating the whole thing, from his cave in the Far North, for all we know. Traditionally Great Houses marry their vassal Houses, on a kind of rotational basis. Just look at the Stark family tree, and the same seems to apply to other regions we have some historical info on.

The kind of inter-Great House betrothals and attempted betrothals we saw leading up to Robert's Rebellion was unprecedented. Something was afoot.

[Bael's Bastard]

I just don't see an anti-Targaryen conspiracy between the Starks, Arryns, and Tullys in the fostering of Ned in the Eyrie or the betrothals of Brandon/Catelyn and Lyanna/Robert.

Don't get me wrong, there has to be some story behind Rickard and Steffon fostering their sons with Jon, but I don't think hostility toward the Targaryens factored in.

Perhaps the fathers had become acquainted or friendly during the War of the Ninepenny Kings, or when Rickard visited King's Landing in 264, or some other time.

But, especially with Steffon's seemingly continuous positive relationship with Aerys, I don't see he or his son being involved in a long term plot against the king.

Nor do I see any reason that Rickard or Jon would have had to make defensive or offensive plans against the Targaryens so early, in 271.

I think the only marriages made between them with hostility to the Targaryens in mind were the marriages deep into Robert's Rebellion between Ned/Catelyn and Jon/Lysa.

Up until the last year or two before Rickard and Brandon were executed, Rhaegar and Tywin were the only ones who really had reason to be concerned about Aerys. And I am definitely inclined to think they each had their own plans to restrain Aerys, and perhaps even had some plans together.

I think it is more useful to look at the moves of each individual house or lord on their own, rather than to automatically group them together as being part of plots between them.

Rickard fostered Brandon with House Dustin, fostered Ned with House Arryn, betrothed Brandon to Catelyn Tully, and betrothed Lyanna to Robert Baratheon. I think these moves were all based on Rickard's own personal motivations for his family and house, rather than as part of a plot with other houses.

Steffon fostered Robert with House Arryn.

Hoster betrothed Catelyn to Brandon Stark, was negotiating with Tywin to betroth Lysa to Jaime Lannister all the way up to his being named to the Kingsguard in 281, and after that Tywin offered Tyrion in Jaime's place. Quite a while after Brandon's execution, Hoster eventually agreed to join Robert's Rebellion with the marriage of Catelyn to Ned and Lysa to Jon Arryn.

Tywin informed Cersei of his desire to betroth her to Rhaegar when she was six or seven, so around 272 or 273, Aerys rejected Tywin's betrothal offer in 276, but Tywin brought Cersei to court when she was twelve around 278 perhaps in the hopes that a match could be made with Viserys or hoping that Elia would eventually die, and she remained in King's Langing with Tywin until Aerys named Jaime to the Kingsguard and Tywin retired and brought Cersei with him to Casterly Rock. Tywin had been negotiating a betrothal with Hoster Tully between Jaime and Lysa for years up until Jaime was named to the Kingsguard in 281.

There may be some overlap between some of these things, but for the most part I don't think they were part of shared plots against the Targaryens. I think Tywin was still scheming to "get in" with the Targaryens up until he quit as Hand, perhaps even up to Rhaegar's death. And who knows, maybe Hoster did have some deeper plans with Tywin? But I don't see the Starks and Arryns and certainly not Baratheons being knowingly involved in any such plans.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You really have an obsession to reduce the significance of all things related to the Starks or the North.

I only do that when it is relevant. It is a fact that the Starks were essentially reduced to irrelevant backwater lords during the entire history of the Targaryen reign. No Targaryen ever served on the Small Council, on the Kingsguard, or participate in any major war in the politics of the Realm. The only exception being the Dance, of course, and Robert's Rebellion. And when Lord Cregan could have been Hand he resigned and went back home as soon as he could. He had the power to make a difference on a grand scale. But he threw that away.

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

During the Dance envoys were sent to White Harbor and Winterfell to garner the North's support.

You are not mentioning crucial facts, as usual when this whole thing is on the table. This was an afterthought. The Blacks originally concluded (quite correctly) that asking for the support of Winterfell and the North wouldn't do because such help (if it were coming) would probably come to late. Jace then decided to go to the North as well but the Northmen certainly weren't a top priority for Rhaenyra and Daemon.

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Starks may be ignored to the extent that their homeland is distant, and most people - even lords - will never visit it in their entire lives. And communication over such distances in a medieval context is a challenge. This is a logistical issue, not a status issue.

It is, because if you live in some backwater town in the middle of nowhere you can also have some money and a pretty long family tree but that doesn't mean the people in the large city are going to be impressed by you. Just remember what Lynesse Hightower thought about Jorah's home and island. Do you think a Lord Hightower would treat or think of a Lord Stark as an equal? Or a Lannister? Perhaps in polite conversation and on paper, but this is the difference between a billionaire and a millionaire. Numbers count.

The bloodline of the Starks as is old, distinguished, and as noble as it can be. I never doubted that. But they are not playing in the same like prestige-wise or wealth-wise as many of the other great houses in the North. The Lannisters, Hightowers, Tyrells are much richer and much more powerful than they are, and even the Arryns are displaying more wealth than the Starks. Sansa and Septa Mordane actually commented on the fact that Jory looks like a beggar among the knights at the Tourney of the Hand. And presumably Jory could have afforded himself some fancy armor and close if the Starks had been paying him more for his service, right?

You can go into 'the Starks don't have to be rich to be as good as anybody else' mode but that's just as wrong in Westerosi elite (or people sucking up to the elite) as it is in real life.

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Furthermore, it is the Starks that are generally insular and uninterested in the South. They are effectively a separate kingdom with a different culture and religion, united into this Empire of Westeros by force of Dragons, not by choice. And with no interest in the unifying Faith of the Seven and its associated cultural ties to the South.

Exactly, and the Southrons don't care about the Northmen, either. For them, Westeros ends at the Neck. Everything north of there is basically poor wasteland. Just ask Paxter and Mace about that. They don't even think the North is it worth to retake it from Robb or Stannis. Just let them keep it, never mind, it is worth pretty much nothing anyway.

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In any case, the era just before Robert's Rebellion was unusual in terms of the large number of inter-Great House marriages that were being pursued. Something was up. It wasn't just Rickard looking for Southron influence for the sake of vanity. Even the Martells were looking to marry Elia to Jaime or Oberyn to Cersei.

We actually don't know how often great houses married among each other. This kind of thing happened. We have those Baratheon-Lannister marriages that are mentioned in AGoT. For the Starks and Lannisters we can say that marrying into vassal houses was pretty common, but there are that Webber and those Royce and Rogers marriages among these two houses.

Tully-Stark clearly was exceptional but that one would have been Rickard's southron ambitions. Baratheon-Stark was a love match, basically, at least on Robert's part, and Lannister-Tully seems to be part of Tywin's ambition to give Jaime a bride of equal rank, not some vassal's daughter. Tywin himself married a fellow Lannister, after all. In addition the Tully match would have helped Tywin to extend his influence.

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The kind of inter-Great House betrothals and attempted betrothals we saw leading up to Robert's Rebellion was unprecedented. Something was afoot.

No, we seem to have gotten the same kind of thing after the Conquest when Queen Rhaenys was arranging a lot of marriages to make peace between the Seven Kingdoms. That didn't work out all that well.

We have no reason to assume that Jaime-Lysa had anything to do with Brandon-Catelyn, let alone Robert-Lyanna. And most definitely not the Martell-Lannister matches that were entertained.