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The Southern Ambition wasn't created by the North.


devilish

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@Lord Varys

I didn't remember that about Olenna. That is interesting.

As far as events we know of, the War of the Ninepenny Kings seems like it would have been a convenient opportunity for some or all of Jon, Steffon, Rickard, and Hoster to have met, though I think only Steffon and Hoster are currently confirmed to have been involved. Even then, Jon would seem to have been in the area of twenty years older than them (and Tywin and Aerys).

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2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The North is actually based on Northumbria, the northernmost of the Seven Anglo Saxon kingdoms. The Wildlings (North of Hadrian's Wall) - and to an extent the Mountain Clans - are based on the Scots. But that aside.

If you go with the Seven Kingdoms being the seven original English kingdoms then you are right. If you see Westeros as the entire island then you can see the North as Scotland and Dorne as Wales being in the South rather than the west. It surely doesn't fit together all that well but it doesn't have to.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The point I'm making about Brandon and Eddard is missed. Of course Ned married Catelyn to get Hoster's swords. That is not disputed. But that was in the midst of a war, when Hoster had to decide carefully which side to pick and what reward he could expect. Pick the wrong side, and he loses everything. So if he took that risk, he needed a reward in turn. And that reward was a marriage into House Stark. Not too different from the reward Walder Frey wanted from Robb. To varying degrees, Walder and Hoster were both marrying up, into a higher status House.

Can you give me textual evidence that Hoster saw a marriage between Cat and Ned as a 'reward'?

Everything points towards Hoster being in the better position in his negotiations with Jon and Ned. He forced Jon to marry Lysa and Ned married Catelyn in his brother's stead despite the fact that he may have had other inclinations. Ned and Jon actually were paying Hoster for his support. They did not graciously allow Hoster to pick himself some reward. In fact, he could actually demand that Ned marry Catelyn because of the contract between the two houses. Or he could have decided to cancel everything because Ned had turned rebel.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You prove that point by pointing out that Eddard was not marrying the person he loved, but had to marry Catelyn out of duty.

Actually, we don't know what Ned wanted to do. I just entertained the possibility that custom dictated that Ned marry Catelyn but he could have tried to wiggle out of that as lord if he had had a betrothal of his own or wished to marry another. 

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

For Hoster's swords. And the point about Brandon was that Hoster was happy to marry into House Stark before the War too, when nothing was at risk. Again, signifying that it was a marriage he welcomed. Especially considering he could get Jaime Lannister for even a second, less beautiful daugther. Clearly a Stark was a great achievement in his eyes, given that context.

Or it was for Rickard. You know, since no Tully had ever wed a Stark. We don't know who get the better deal in that marriage contract yet.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Note also that Olenna Tyrell considers Sansa a great match for the heir to Highgarden, Willas Tyrell. This despite Sansa's northern kingdom being in ruins, and at the nadir of its power. Clearly the status of the Starks is as high as you can get.

So I'm sorry, but your argument simply is not backed by the evidence.

And you fail to read things in context. Sure as hell Sansa is of very noble birth in Tywin's and Olenna's eyes. She is the second last Stark alive, the heir of Winterfell, and Tywin plans to kill Robb. Through Sansa could either Willas or Tyrion control the North. And that would certainly be a great price for either of those men. The North might not be the Reach and Winterfell isn't Casterly Rock, but is is still not unimpressive.

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13 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

@Lord Varys

I didn't remember that about Olenna. That is interesting.

She talks about that briefly when she first meets Sansa.

Quote

As far as events we know of, the War of the Ninepenny Kings seems like it would have been a convenient opportunity for some or all of Jon, Steffon, Rickard, and Hoster to have met, though I think only Steffon and Hoster are currently confirmed to have been involved. Even then, Jon would seem to have been in the area of twenty years older than them (and Tywin and Aerys).

We also know about Greyjoy ships being there, and Dornish troops accompanying the army.

The problem with the Rickard thing is that we have no idea when he was born as far as I know, and also no idea whether he already was Lord of Winterfell in 260 AC. Would he have gone to war on the Steptstones if he had been the Lord of Winterfell? Possibly, but it is more likely that he would have done so as the heir of Winterfell. Still, there is the problem of him being an only child, suggesting that he would only have gone as either lord or heir if there had been other Starks around to fill the void should he die.

Perhaps if Artos' sons Brandon and Benjen were still around? And who knows - perhaps the marriage between Branda Stark and Harrold Rogers goes back to some acquaintances Rickard made during the war? One should assume a marriage between a Stark daughter and some small Stormlord was a rather rare and exotic thing. They must have met somehow. Could have been during Jaehaerys II's coronation feast or later during some celebration after the end of the war.

And we should also not forget that not only Tywin and Steffon might have bonded with/sucked up to Aerys during that war. He was the Prince of Dragonstone and the whole thing the ideal opportunity to show Aerys how great they all were.

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9 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Now that you mention it, Jaehaerys' coronation is probably an even likelier time for Rickard to have met some or all of Jon, Steffon, and Hoster, even if they were not all lords yet. 

That is a possibility. Considering the impact the tragedy of Summerhall might have had there is a good chance that Jaehaerys II's coronation wasn't the top priority immediately thereafter. First they would have to get back to KL, and so on. And if the news about the Band of Nine and the decision to bring the war to them was made before there was even a coronation then Jaehaerys II might have killed two birds with one stone. He would have sent out invitations for his coronation as well as a command to raise troops for his war who would then also met the assembled lords at KL.

Alternatively it is possible that the speed in which the army was assembled goes back to the fact that the decision to make war on the Stepstones was made during the coronation feast. All the lords or their representatives would have been there, and the young guys hungry for glory would have been very keen to get the opportunity to go to war.

But going back to the fostering of Ned at the Vale: 

We have to keep in mind that Rickard had an aunt and first cousins in the Vale. They could actually have arranged Ned being fostered with Lord Arryn without Rickard and Jon ever meeting each other face to face before that or them being acquaintances/friends. That could actually mean that Rickard wasn't on the Stepstones. Or, if we want to see the origins of the Brandon-Cat match in Rickard and Hoster being acquainted, then Jon Arryn could actually have not participated in the war. Instead his younger brother Ronnel, the father of Elbert (and possibly Elbert himself, if he was already old enough), could have accompanied the Arryn troops to the Stepstones.

Steffon and Jon could easily enough have met each other at court or on some tourneys, or it might be that Steffon was also closer to the younger Arryns (Ronnel/Elbert) and learned from them that Jon was feeling lonely in his empty castle, triggering him to send Robert there (who, I imagine, would have been a pretty big pain in the ass as a child).

And in hindsight it is somewhat odd that Ned chose Jon Arryn as foster father for Ned rather than the Royces or one of the Vale families there were related to through Jocelyn. Presumably we see those southron ambitions there - Rickard wanted to use Ned to make connections with another great lord, not just mid-tier lordlings of the Vale. And if Robert was already a ward at the Eyrie at the time Rickard decided to send Ned (say, he was informed by his aunt/cousins in the Vale) then his ambitions might have been to get closer to Aerys and the Iron Throne through Robert.

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11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If you go with the Seven Kingdoms being the seven original English kingdoms then you are right. If you see Westeros as the entire island then you can see the North as Scotland and Dorne as Wales being in the South rather than the west. It surely doesn't fit together all that well but it doesn't have to.

Can you give me textual evidence that Hoster saw a marriage between Cat and Ned as a 'reward'?

Everything points towards Hoster being in the better position in his negotiations with Jon and Ned. He forced Jon to marry Lysa and Ned married Catelyn in his brother's stead despite the fact that he may have had other inclinations. Ned and Jon actually were paying Hoster for his support. They did not graciously allow Hoster to pick himself some reward. In fact, he could actually demand that Ned marry Catelyn because of the contract between the two houses. Or he could have decided to cancel everything because Ned had turned rebel.

Actually, we don't know what Ned wanted to do. I just entertained the possibility that custom dictated that Ned marry Catelyn but he could have tried to wiggle out of that as lord if he had had a betrothal of his own or wished to marry another. 

Or it was for Rickard. You know, since no Tully had ever wed a Stark. We don't know who get the better deal in that marriage contract yet.

And you fail to read things in context. Sure as hell Sansa is of very noble birth in Tywin's and Olenna's eyes. She is the second last Stark alive, the heir of Winterfell, and Tywin plans to kill Robb. Through Sansa could either Willas or Tyrion control the North. And that would certainly be a great price for either of those men. The North might not be the Reach and Winterfell isn't Casterly Rock, but is is still not unimpressive.

Regarding the bolded part. Consider your own argument, which supports my point. Hoster was indeed in the stronger position. Because he had not declared against the Targaryens yet, and was sitting on the fence. Just like Walder Frey was in the stronger position to require Robb to marry his daughter.

That in itself tells you that if Hoster had the thousands of swords that the rebels needed, and did not have to commit them to the war, then what did the North have in exchange for that? It must be something pretty valuable, for Hoster to insist on it. And indeed, it was. It was a Stark marriage for his oldest and most beautiful daughter. Clearly then, he valued a Stark marriage highly enough to insist on it as the price for his swords in a war against the Iron Throne itself.

Not something to undertake lightly, or without great reward, if you don't have a dog in the fight.

Also note that the Riverlords weren't forced to accept Robb as King. Robb would not have abandoned his mother's people if they instead insisted on being an independent kingdom, supporting the North as allies. Yet the Riverlords took up the cry "King in the North" as loudly as the Greatjon did, in that scene.

You don't do that unless you consider the House in question as worthy of being your king.

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I think it was just Hoster Tully seeing an oppurtunity to further his houses sucess, Robert fell for Lyanna and def wasnt ploting a rebellion against his cousin Aerys so Hoster seen a chance to marry Cat to Brandon abd thus essentially having SE on your team as well if something did pop off. 

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3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding the bolded part. Consider your own argument, which supports my point. Hoster was indeed in the stronger position. Because he had not declared against the Targaryens yet, and was sitting on the fence. Just like Walder Frey was in the stronger position to require Robb to marry his daughter.

Hoster didn't have to declare for the Targaryens. He had been loyal to the Targaryens until that point. Ned was trying to convince him to rebel against his king. He was asking for his help, not the other way around. And regardless what were the feelings of Ned about Catelyn Hoster would have insisted that he fulfill the contract if Hoster decided to join the rebels. After all, Aerys had destroyed the prospect of the Catelyn-Brandon marriage by killing Brandon.

But Ned-Catelyn wasn't the only condition the rebels had to agree to. It was Jon-Lysa as well, and that one clearly hurt Jon Arryn. He had to accept it anyway.

The idea that the Tullys felt somehow 'honored' by the Stark marriage Rickard and Hoster originally brokered isn't confirmed by the text. We don't know anything about that match. Was Rickard approaching Hoster to make that match or was Hoster reaching out to Rickard? Somehow I doubt it was the latter.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That in itself tells you that if Hoster had the thousands of swords that the rebels needed, and did not have to commit them to the war, then what did the North have in exchange for that? It must be something pretty valuable, for Hoster to insist on it. And indeed, it was. It was a Stark marriage for his oldest and most beautiful daughter. Clearly then, he valued a Stark marriage highly enough to insist on it as the price for his swords in a war against the Iron Throne itself.

Hoster certainly decided to go with Ned and Jon because Aerys and Rhaegar hadn't made similar offers. If Aerys had reached out to Hoster offering Viserys as a husband to Lysa or Catelyn he most likely wouldn't have teamed up with the rebels. But no such offer was made as far as we know.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Also note that the Riverlords weren't forced to accept Robb as King. Robb would not have abandoned his mother's people if they instead insisted on being an independent kingdom, supporting the North as allies. Yet the Riverlords took up the cry "King in the North" as loudly as the Greatjon did, in that scene.

You don't do that unless you consider the House in question as worthy of being your king.

They cried out 'the King of the Trident', too. That was the important point for them, not 'the King in the North' thing. They don't live in the North. We don't get that in AGoT but it becomes clear in the next book.

And as I've said earlier Robb was actually proclaimed king by more Riverlords than Lords of the North. Most of the Northern lords and commanders were with Roose Bolton's army, not with Robb and the Riverlords at Riverrun. We have the Greatjon, Lord Rickard, Galbart Glover, and Maege Mormont as the Northmen proclaiming Robb king. Against that there are more Riverlords with Robb at Riverrun. They are the more crucial part of his kingdom, especially in light of the fact that they make him king and that their lands are the only part of his kingdom he actually sets a foot in while he is king.

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7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And as I've said earlier Robb was actually proclaimed king by more Riverlords than Lords of the North.... and that their lands are the only part of his kingdom he actually sets a foot in while he is king.

Wow, I never thought of that before. Such irony!

I have liked this "Southron Ambitions" theory since the beginning, partly because GRRM introduces it in such a conspiratorial way. Unlike many other theories, which often seem to appear out of nowhere, this one attempts to explain some very real and obvious hints that GRRM put out via Lady Barbrey

What's the timeline with Varys showing up in KL? Seems to me when you guys talk about Aerys ruining the alleged marriage plans by murdering Brandon and Rickard that you give him too much credit, even when he was sane. Does the text back it up? We know he wasn't always crazy but does it ever suggest he was clever?

Seems more like a Varys move, or more probably a Citadel one. The 'kidnapping' of Lyanna by Rhaegar, followed quickly by the murder of Lord Stark and his heir would predictably lead to war. With Ned still alive, the potential for alliances remains vis-a-vis his wardship with Arryn and friendship with Barratheon, and clearly it was simple enough for him resume Brandon's engagement to Catelyn. The Citadel wanted to end the magic Targ line, and murdering them one-by-one wasn't working so well. Instead they had to depose the whole family, so getting Aerys to start a war with no less than half of Westeros' greatest houses would have been their best bet. When you put it in the context of the other Maesters involved in executing the alleged marriage conspiracy, and the Gerold-Walys Hightower connection, this theory gets even more compelling. 

On the other hand, it could've been Varys. Lots of people think Varys is a Blackfyre. If so, was he looking for a chance to create chaos so that he could usurp the weakened realm? Or perhaps he was just trying to take vengeance against the legit Targ line? Still, I weirdly believe him when he says all he wants is Peace. I'm going with the Maesters on this one...

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On 19/01/2017 at 1:04 AM, Lord Varys said:

She talks about that briefly when she first meets Sansa.

We also know about Greyjoy ships being there, and Dornish troops accompanying the army.

The problem with the Rickard thing is that we have no idea when he was born as far as I know, and also no idea whether he already was Lord of Winterfell in 260 AC. Would he have gone to war on the Steptstones if he had been the Lord of Winterfell? Possibly, but it is more likely that he would have done so as the heir of Winterfell. Still, there is the problem of him being an only child, suggesting that he would only have gone as either lord or heir if there had been other Starks around to fill the void should he die.

Perhaps if Artos' sons Brandon and Benjen were still around? And who knows - perhaps the marriage between Branda Stark and Harrold Rogers goes back to some acquaintances Rickard made during the war? One should assume a marriage between a Stark daughter and some small Stormlord was a rather rare and exotic thing. They must have met somehow. Could have been during Jaehaerys II's coronation feast or later during some celebration after the end of the war.

And we should also not forget that not only Tywin and Steffon might have bonded with/sucked up to Aerys during that war. He was the Prince of Dragonstone and the whole thing the ideal opportunity to show Aerys how great they all were.

The ninepenny kings war was a preemptive war. For the first time in many years a force from Westeros was engaged in an offensive war something that could easily have ended up in misery. For all the king knew, Essosi kings and Lords could interpret this act as an attempt from the Targ king to rebuild the Valyrian empire. That would have probably lead to some sort of crusade/jihad against them.Not to forget that throughout the years Blackfyres proved themselves to be resilient and able to escape only to come and fight another day. That also had to be taken in consideration

Therefore the war of the ninepenny kings had to be swift. The Westerosi armies had to hit fast and quickly so they could be able to catch the Blackfyre unprepared. They had to pull out from the Stepstones as quickly as possible to avoid irritating the Essosi nobility. 

The North was too far and too vast to be useful in such attack. Their bannermen would take ages to organize themselves into an army and once that happens, the royal fleet would have to go North and pick them up. The Blackfyre and co army wasn't that big not to be defeated by the Southern Lords either. Therefore I am not surprised if the Targs allowed them to sit out on this war. 

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On 19/01/2017 at 1:04 AM, Lord Varys said:

She talks about that briefly when she first meets Sansa.

We also know about Greyjoy ships being there, and Dornish troops accompanying the army.

The problem with the Rickard thing is that we have no idea when he was born as far as I know, and also no idea whether he already was Lord of Winterfell in 260 AC. Would he have gone to war on the Steptstones if he had been the Lord of Winterfell? Possibly, but it is more likely that he would have done so as the heir of Winterfell. Still, there is the problem of him being an only child, suggesting that he would only have gone as either lord or heir if there had been other Starks around to fill the void should he die.

Perhaps if Artos' sons Brandon and Benjen were still around? And who knows - perhaps the marriage between Branda Stark and Harrold Rogers goes back to some acquaintances Rickard made during the war? One should assume a marriage between a Stark daughter and some small Stormlord was a rather rare and exotic thing. They must have met somehow. Could have been during Jaehaerys II's coronation feast or later during some celebration after the end of the war.

And we should also not forget that not only Tywin and Steffon might have bonded with/sucked up to Aerys during that war. He was the Prince of Dragonstone and the whole thing the ideal opportunity to show Aerys how great they all were.

The ninepenny kings war was a preemptive war. For the first time in many years a force from Westeros was engaged in an offensive war something that could easily have ended up in misery. For all the king knew, Essosi kings and Lords could interpret this act as an attempt from the Targ king to rebuild the Valyrian empire. That would have probably lead to some sort of crusade/jihad against them.Not to forget that throughout the years Blackfyres proved themselves to be resilient and able to escape only to come and fight another day. That also had to be taken in consideration

Therefore the war of the ninepenny kings had to be swift. The Westerosi armies had to hit fast and quickly so they could be able to catch the Blackfyre unprepared. They had to pull out from the Stepstones as quickly as possible to avoid irritating the Essosi nobility. 

The North was too far and too vast to be useful in such attack. Their bannermen would take ages to organize themselves into an army and once that happens, the royal fleet would have to go North and pick them up. The Blackfyre and co army wasn't that big not to be defeated by the Southern Lords either. Therefore I am not surprised if the Targs allowed them to sit out on this war. 

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The North is somehow different from the rest of Westeros. First of all, they believe in the old gods, which is not an issue with most Targs but may become an issue with the Faith of the Seven, especially if a Targ king marries one and his queen convinces her children to switch religion. It’s the biggest region in Westeros with their bannermen spread thin throughout this vast region. Winter is cruel there wil vast parts of it become nearly inaccessible. Considering its hardly the richest region either (therefore it has a poor infrastructure), we can assume that the Starks faced a logistic nightmare to rule that cold region. Finally they are hardly the best allies the Targs could have. Sure, they are extremely honourable and they would rather have half their family wiped away then not honouring the obligations. However because of logistics, the Starks take ages to build a viable army and by the time they march south the Targs would have either sorted the problem themselves or they would have lost the war. Not to forget the wildling armies which are hardly a threat for the Targs but they can be quite a nuisance to handle.

In my opinion, most Targs tackled the Starks splendidly. They acknowledged that the Starks are the ones able to rule the North, that they were too honourable to break their vows without any valid reason, and that their hands were full with ruling the North, so they left them to their own device. Don’t try to mend what is not broken sort of thing. We’ve already seen what happens when a Targ forces his way into the Starks way of doing things (Rhaeger) or when the Starks force their way into the Southern ways of doing thing (Ned as hand of the king). It simply doesn’t work

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3 hours ago, devilish said:

The ninepenny kings war was a preemptive war. For the first time in many years a force from Westeros was engaged in an offensive war something that could easily have ended up in misery. For all the king knew, Essosi kings and Lords could interpret this act as an attempt from the Targ king to rebuild the Valyrian empire. That would have probably lead to some sort of crusade/jihad against them.Not to forget that throughout the years Blackfyres proved themselves to be resilient and able to escape only to come and fight another day. That also had to be taken in consideration.

I doubt that they cared. The Stepstones usually are pirate nests with no clear ruler and Tyrosh had already been taken by the Band of Nine. They could easily enough have seen them as a threat, not the Westerosi.

3 hours ago, devilish said:

Therefore the war of the ninepenny kings had to be swift. The Westerosi armies had to hit fast and quickly so they could be able to catch the Blackfyre unprepared. They had to pull out from the Stepstones as quickly as possible to avoid irritating the Essosi nobility. 

The North was too far and too vast to be useful in such attack. Their bannermen would take ages to organize themselves into an army and once that happens, the royal fleet would have to go North and pick them up. The Blackfyre and co army wasn't that big not to be defeated by the Southern Lords either. Therefore I am not surprised if the Targs allowed them to sit out on this war. 

I essentially agree with you there but there are hints that some Northmen were with the army anyway, and an ambitious young Rickard could easily enough have joined Jaehaerys II's armies with some Northern token force.

I don't expect Rickon Stark to have led a vast Northern army to Dorne under the command of the Young Dragon. Rather a smaller, less impressive force.

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I doubt that they cared. The Stepstones usually are pirate nests with no clear ruler and Tyrosh had already been taken by the Band of Nine. They could easily enough have seen them as a threat, not the Westerosi.

I essentially agree with you there but there are hints that some Northmen were with the army anyway, and an ambitious young Rickard could easily enough have joined Jaehaerys II's armies with some Northern token force.

I don't expect Rickon Stark to have led a vast Northern army to Dorne under the command of the Young Dragon. Rather a smaller, less impressive force.

The stepstones are called that for a reason. It act as a stepping stone to Westeros but can also act as a stepping stone from Westeros to Essos. I happen to come from a country which is basically the same thing myself. Throughout history the big forces used not to care alot about it only until a big player got its grip on it.

Regarding the second point I think it really depended on the Lord and the environment he's in. In reality Lord Stark could raise his household and some of the bannermen in his area and march to exhausting straight to KL. That would probably be around 5000- 6000 people. However that means

a-  Go to KL with a force which is a fraction of what the North can raise. Which would make Lord Stark look a bit silly when compared to other wardens who can raise tens of thousands

b- It would mean begging a lift to the stepstones. Its really silly that the biggest region in Westeros doesn't have a fleet of its own but maybe that's the plan all along (ie if I can't help you won't bug me sort of thing).

Under such circumstances it would have been wiser for Jaehaerys to tell Rickard to simply raise as many banners as he can and march to Moat Cailin. It won't panic the Riverlands (ie a 30k Northern man is a frightening sight especially when the LP is away to the Stepstones with the bulk of his army) but it would be close enough to march South and defend the realm if Westeros suffers from a counter attack. 

 

 

 

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Surely some Manderly ships could have transported Rickard and a small northern force to the Stepstones relatively easily and quickly? No need to march from the north. This wasn't a civil war like the Dance. Westeros was essentually united with their focus on one enemy in one location. I hesitate to say it is certain, because Rickard and the north have been seemingly absent from statements about that war thus far. But it seems one of a few options that sound like a plausible scenario for Rickard to have met some of these southroners he was later associated with.

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I guess references to northerners taking parts in the War of the Ninepenny Kings are not entirely absent.

""Lord Dustin and I had not been married half a year when Robert rose and Ned Stark called his banners. I begged my husband not to go. He had kin he might have sent in his stead. An uncle famed for his prowess with an axe, a great-uncle who had fought in the War of the Ninepenny Kings." (ADWD - The Turncloark)

If Lord Dustin's great-uncle could take part in the war, it is plausible Rickard could have.

 

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