Bonkers

Littlefinger, Doran, Olenna ...and Oberyn plot?

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I have been searching to no avail to find any discussion on the topic of Littlefinger and his potential scheming with Dorne as well as the Reach.  Specifically, his possible trip to Dorne and orchestrating with the Tyrell's and Martell's to poison Joffery, Tywin and The Mountain.  I will describe what I mean and if anyone has knowledge of a decent discussion please link me to it, or even better, post your thoughts and ideas (for or against) below - without being condescending please LOL.

So we know that Lady Olenna was involved with LF to poison Joffery at his wedding.  This is canon.  We also know that Littlefinger left Kings Landing on The Merling King - and knew it was there, when it was leaving and that it was from Braavos (which LF tells Sansa is where his grandfather was from).  What is left off-page is where he went between then and the Purple Wedding. 

Without going into the symbolism and discussion on blood oranges, we are given small excerpts from chapters that may link his journey together. 

First is the Sansa chapter in SoS 2 when they arrive at the Fingers.  Clearly his household staff have not seen him in a very long time, and neither has Lysa, whom insists on immediately marrying him on the spot.  After they arrive Sansa drinks some wine to settle her stomach, which tastes "of oak and fruit and hot summer nights (reminds me of Aerys Oakhearts description of Sunspear when he goes to meet Princess Arienne), the flavors blossoming in her mouth like flowers opening to the sun" (like the Tyrell's/Roses working together with the Martells/Suns).  She is then presented with a platter of fruit, consisting of "apples and pears and pomegranates, some sad-looking grapes, a huge blood orange". 

As I mentioned, I am not going into the symbolism of the fruit here, but the origins of the fruit is notable.  Firstly, blood oranges are from Dorne, as we know.  As are pomegranates.  Yes, Pomegranates are found elsewhere, like in Essos with Dany, but we can safely assume that LF did not cross the Autumn winds on the narrow sea and risk the trip missing Sansa's collection after the wedding.  Given that these fruits are ripe and fresh and sweet, they are likely from Dorne, and very recently picked too.  The "sad-looking" grapes may symbolize the attack of The Arbor and Redwyne fleet, but that is not the discussion here.  If they came from The Arbor, they would be older than the fresh picked blood oranges and pomegranates. 

Second is the first Areo Hotah chapter in Feast.  He describes how the blood oranges are over-ripe (again, this is not about their symbolism), which clearly shows that the season for them is ending and that these particular ones were not picked when they should have been to be exported freshest.  Given the time that has past from when LF may have been there, it fits that these ones are now over ripe.  Areo also describes a meal of Doran's where he drinks his sweet heavy strongwine.  It may be that this is the same wine that Sansa drank but there appears no evidence.  Although his meal is bread and savory, and Sansa's is bread and sweet fruits.  I will note, however, that Sansa mentoins ONE blood orange, not many.  It may be that LF took a personal few from Doran's trees, not a large harvested amount.  Speculation.

Thirdly I want to bring to attention the complete lack of [email protected] given by Lady Olenna at Tywin's funeral when talking to Cersei.  She blatantly says that Tywin stank, and that she abhorred foul smells.  She calmly tells Mace not to worry about Garth being refused the Master of Coin by Cersei, and just wants to see Margery wed to Tommen so she can leave.  Olenna publicly shames Cersei in front of half the court by stating that Tywin clearly did not trust Cerei when it came to appointing offices of the state for the King: "it seems Lord Tywin did not share his plans with our Regent.  I can't imagine why."  The Tyrell's have no love for the Lannister's, they fought against Robert in the rebellion and the Lannister's killed the Targs.  Then followed Renly against the Lannisters - until LF.  They and the Martell's have that hatred for Lannisters in common and, as Oberyn tells Tyrion when he arrives in KL, he and Willis Tyrell were on good terms, and shared an interest in 'horse flesh'.  I think she knew what was happening and is just 'keeping up appearances'.  Her and LF and Doran have planned to take down the Lannisters root and stem, leaving only Cersei left open and vunerable.  Then steps in the Sparrows - whom are likely aligned with Martell and Tyrell, as we see Margery is sent back to the castle until her 'trial', whereas Cersei is kept imprisoned and made to walk in shame.  Not to mention the involvement of LF's Kettleblacks and Loras' feigned injuries.

I wonder whether LF met with the Martell brothers before Oberyn left for the wedding, and plotted for Oberyn to poison Tywin, as Olenna poisoned Joffery.  If Oberyn was named the suspect for either murder he would face the Mountain in trial by combat and poison him too, even if it meant his death.  Doran does seem to expect the news that Oberyn died, he seems to wait an awfully long time before opening the letter, as if he expected the news.  He is calm with the Sandsnakes, claiming it was legal and not murder, and then even tells Hotah that he hopes Tywin sees "what a loyal friend he has in Sunspear".  This is perhaps to keep the appearance that Dorne are friends, as Doran can then move the Sandsnakes closer into position for the final blow without suspicion or war. 

If this is where LF was and what he planned, then there are most likely a lot of other hints the text could offer.  Or not!  But we do know that Doran was planning to get revenge on Tywin since the day of the sack.  We may now know who his inside man is/was.

Thoughts?

 

TL;DR

Littlefinger may have left KL and traveled to Dorne before picking up Sansa.  He may have met with Doran and Oberyn and informed them of his plan with Olenna.  Oberyn then conspires to poison Tywin too, and if he is accused of either poisoning it gives him reason to fight the Mountain and poison him also.  LF was the one who brought the dwarves to the wedding feast, knowing that it would inflame Tyrion and that Joffery would most likely taunt Tyrion and enrage him.  This allows for the possibility that when Joffery is poisoned, Cersei would immediately see the opportunity to blame Tyrion and finally have him killed.  LF is very aware of Cersei's hatred for Tyrion, and impulsive nature.

 

Edited by Bonkers

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You raise an important subject: it seems as if Littlefinger had to be somewhere other than the harbor near King's Landing all that time, and he probably would have tried to do something useful, not just go out to open water and bide his time.

I know you are looking at the fruit as a signal of his location and the timing (relative to ripening of the fruit trees in Dorne) and not at additional symbolism. I suspect, however, that we would have to definitively sort out the next layer of fruit symbolism to know if the blood orange or other fruit is being used as a hint of Littlefinger's collusion with the Martells. Yesterday, I came across an early passage from a super-important scene in AGoT, where Robert and Ned are entering the Winterfell crypt, and Robert encourages Ned to go south to get a "taste of summer," describing the fruits available from Highgarden and indicating that he brought some as a gift. We have no reason to believe that Robert was recently at Highgarden (although maybe I'm missing the point) but there is the fruit anyway, representing summer as a contrast with the snow already visible near Winterfell.

Robert's lines in the crypts also allude to the wildfire grenades that Mad King Aerys commissioned from the Alchemists: he tells Ned that the ripe fruit will "explode" in a person's mouth. So fruit is tasty, but it also has this hidden, lethal quality.

The Willas / Oberyn friendship is an important piece of evidence for your theory, but I am not quite ready to think that the longtime Tyrell / Martell enmity has transformed into a secret alliance. I'll be interested to see whether other evidence emerges.

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15 hours ago, Seams said:

The Wills / Oberyn friendship is an important piece of evidence for your theory, but I am not quite ready to think that the longtime Tyrell / Martell enmity has transformed into a secret alliance. I'll be interested to see whether other evidence emerges.

...yeh, it would seem that only in their hatred for the Lannisters AFTER the rebellion, and their shameless slaughtering of Targs that they may have agreed to align for this simple revenge.  I don't think Mace would be aware of anything, just Olenna. 

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On ‎1‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 4:38 AM, Bonkers said:

snip

 

Interesting idea about the fruit. I hadn't made that connection before. But is it unrealistic that a man of LF's means could get blood oranges without going all the way to Dorne? There are plenty of trading galleys that carry blood oranges and all other things to ports in the 7K. So, sure, it's possible LF is colluding with the Martells as well, but to have the Martells and Tyrells working together is a bit of a stretch -- regardless of how Oberyn and Willas get along now. Besides, Oberyn needs no help from LF to either acquire or deliver poison to Tywin.

Also, "Lady Olenna was involved with LF to poison Joffrey at his wedding" is most certainly not canon. That was how it worked out, but in reality they were trying to kill Tyrion. But that's a tale best left for another post. B)

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A few things spring to mind when I think  about the Doran/Baelish connection.  They are both referred to as "sentimental" and are the only two characters that are referred to as such. Both the Vale and Dorne have been relatively untouched by the War of Five Kings if they  aren't  in cahoots they are using  a similar playbook. 

Spoiler

Also in the Alayne spoiler chapter the huge lemon cake has taken up all the  lemons in the Vale.  They will have to send to Dorne for more. 

 

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On 1/19/2017 at 3:18 PM, John Suburbs said:

Also, "Lady Olenna was involved with LF to poison Joffrey at his wedding" is most certainly not canon. That was how it worked out, but in reality they were trying to kill Tyrion. But that's a tale best left for another post. B)

You should definitely start that post. I do not see how they were trying to kill Tyrion. But I am also a novice

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4 hours ago, Lord Commander Glow said:

You should definitely start that post. I do not see how they were trying to kill Tyrion. But I am also a novice

Lol, I've done so multiple times to jeers and guffaws of virtually the entire board. Maybe I'll do another one just before Winds comes out, so they'll all look like the fools they are when the reveal comes out.

The short answer to your question, though, is that LF doesn't want Tyrion to uncover all his embezzling of the crown's gold, and Olenna doesn't want Tyrion to father the next Lord of Winterfell on Sansa and give Tywin control of the entire north. Given that Tywin has already gained the crownlands, stormlands, westerlands, riverland and the neck, that would allow him to challenge the hegemony that High Garden has maintained for thousands of years.

It makes even less sense for either to want to kill Joffrey. LF wants chaos, and who better to provide chaos than Joffrey? Olenna wants a Tyrell to sit the Iron Throne, and she gets that in a year with Joffrey while Tommen, even if an offer for Margy's hand is made, won't produce an heir for another five years at least.

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On 20/01/2017 at 7:18 AM, John Suburbs said:

Also, "Lady Olenna was involved with LF to poison Joffrey at his wedding" is most certainly not canon. That was how it worked out, but in reality they were trying to kill Tyrion. But that's a tale best left for another post. B)

Interesting, but why would she poison the kings chalice if they were intent on Tyrion dying?  I think it makes sense also to assume that the chaos LF may have wanted was Cersei on the throne - impulsive, reckless, hot-headed and power hungry - and she would be in charge a lot longer with Tommen on the throne.  Regarding the coin, I think it was LF whom recommended Tyrion for the position when he was leaving?  Why would he do that and then have this huge plan concocted for him to be poisoned at the wedding - given he would also have to have all the pieces in play with Olenna, well before Tyrion gets the position?  

I'd be interested to read your thoughts, but you would be hard pressed to sell me on that. 

I still think it is highly possible that Oberyn took out Tywin, while Olenna took out Joffery, and LF organised the jousting dwarfs to cause tension between Joffery and Tyrion, and set up the 'motive' for Cersei to accuse Tyrion.  Effectively wiping out all three leaving Cersei and Tommen.  Given Tyrion would need a champion for trial OR Oberyn may be accused of poisoning Tywin or Joffery, the Mountain then can be taken out with poison by Oberyn too. 

On 20/01/2017 at 7:18 AM, John Suburbs said:

But is it unrealistic that a man of LF's means could get blood oranges without going all the way to Dorne? There are plenty of trading galleys that carry blood oranges and all other things to ports in the 7K.

Not unrealistic at all, but he was aboard a trading galley and the oranges were fresh.  I doubt a trading galley just sitting there for a month would not go unnoticed.

I guess a very important question we need an answer to, is where  was LF between leaving and the wedding?  I think he was in Dorne.  Why?  To organize Lannister murder with the Martells, and informing them of Olenna's part.  There is the possibility of Olenna and Doran making common cause on this. 

In aCoK when Catelyn is talking with Renly at his feast atop the tower, he says

"...and this is only part of my strength.  Mace Tyrell remains at Highgarden with another ten thousand, I have a strong garrison holding Storm's End, and soon enough the Dornishmen will join me with all their power."  sounds like there was some common ground communication even back then.  Sure Renly may have just been telling Cat an empty statement, but I doubt it now.

 

Edited by Bonkers

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On ‎1‎/‎26‎/‎2017 at 3:34 AM, Bonkers said:

Interesting, but why would she poison the kings chalice if they were intent on Tyrion dying?  I think it makes sense also to assume that the chaos LF may have wanted was Cersei on the throne - impulsive, reckless, hot-headed and power hungry - and she would be in charge a lot longer with Tommen on the throne.  Regarding the coin, I think it was LF whom recommended Tyrion for the position when he was leaving?  Why would he do that and then have this huge plan concocted for him to be poisoned at the wedding - given he would also have to have all the pieces in play with Olenna, well before Tyrion gets the position?  

I'd be interested to read your thoughts, but you would be hard pressed to sell me on that. 

 

Well, since you're the OP and this is your thread, here we go:

The poison wasn't in the wine, it was in the pie: Tyron's slice that was meant for Tyrion and only Tyrion. The poison took Cressen down in seconds and his wine looked perfectly normal just before he took his fatal sip. Joffrey's wine, as shown by Tyrion at the end of the scene, is "deep purple" and therefore highly concentrated with poison, and he takes multiple chugs of it. So why does Joffrey show no affect at all for half-a-minute or more and doesn't start choking until a few seconds after he washes the pie down his throat?

Cersei on the throne vs. Joffrey? I would argue that in terms of impulsiveness, recklessness, hot-headedness and power-hungriness, Joffrey still wins. At best, it's only a minor difference for such a huge risk as regicide, and Tywin would still be in charge in any event. Plus, LF has been shown to be a much better manipulator of Joffrey than Cersei. LF in fact is later surprised at how quickly Cersei has made hash of the realm, so prior to that he thought she was at least marginally capable.

Also, why would Lady O go along with this? From her perspective, which is better: Margy married to Tommen (maybe) but with Cersei as regent for the next five years? Or Margy married to Joffrey with Cersei out of the picture and a new crown prince within the year? Wouldn't it make more sense to kill Joffrey after he got Margy with child, and then Margy rules as regent until her son comes of age? The only way it makes sense for Lady O to want to kill Joff at the wedding is if she was convinced that Margy would not survive the night with him, and this is clearly contraindicated in the text -- both by Lady O's and Margy's own words to Sansa and Joffrey's behavior toward Margy before and during the wedding.

I don't remember any text that has LF recommending Tyrion as MoC. That came from Tywin as I recall, and LF played his role of handing over the office before he departed the capital -- thinking all along, of course, that Tyrion would not live for long.

 

On ‎1‎/‎26‎/‎2017 at 3:34 AM, Bonkers said:

I still think it is highly possible that Oberyn took out Tywin, while Olenna took out Joffery, and LF organised the jousting dwarfs to cause tension between Joffery and Tyrion, and set up the 'motive' for Cersei to accuse Tyrion.  Effectively wiping out all three leaving Cersei and Tommen.  Given Tyrion would need a champion for trial OR Oberyn may be accused of poisoning Tywin or Joffery, the Mountain then can be taken out with poison by Oberyn too. 

 

In order for the wine plan to work, LF would have to not only know that the joust would produce the tiff between Joff and Tyrion as expected, but that it would involve the chalice, that Tyrion would have to handle the chalice just before the poisoning, and even the exact position that Joffrey places the chalice before the cutting ceremony -- not a foot to the left or to the right that would put it out of arm's reach for the only possible poisoner, Garlan. This is simply too many unknowns, especially for Lady O who will be in the throne room with practically her entire family surrounded by Lannister guards.

Let's also not overlook the fact that the three-foot-tall chalice is in plain view of hundreds of people, and the odds of not one person seeing the drop -- even as the pigeons are taking flight -- are infinitesimally small.

LF and Lady O are gambling with their lives in the Game of Thrones and are pursuing dynastic ambitions through plans that have been months, if not years, in the making. There is no way they are going to risk everything on the hope that an entire series of unlikely events will happen just they way they want them to.

On ‎1‎/‎26‎/‎2017 at 3:34 AM, Bonkers said:

I guess a very important question we need an answer to, is where  was LF between leaving and the wedding?  I think he was in Dorne.  Why?  To organize Lannister murder with the Martells, and informing them of Olenna's part.  There is the possibility of Olenna and Doran making common cause on this. 

In aCoK when Catelyn is talking with Renly at his feast atop the tower, he says

"...and this is only part of my strength.  Mace Tyrell remains at Highgarden with another ten thousand, I have a strong garrison holding Storm's End, and soon enough the Dornishmen will join me with all their power."  sounds like there was some common ground communication even back then.  Sure Renly may have just been telling Cat an empty statement, but I doubt it now.

 

Have you read the World Book and the history between Dorne and the Reach? The possibility of Olenna and Oberyn -- the man who crippled her son -- making common cause is extremely slim. Even during Robert's Rebellion, the majority of reachmen camped out at Storm's End while Dorne marched north with Rhaegar.

It's just as likely that LF was in or near the capital monitoring events and teaching Lady O how to remove the poison from a duplicate hairnet -- after the Red Wedding, of course, when her need to kill Tyrion emerged. Indeed, if LF and Lady O planned the murder all the way back at Bitterbridge, then why bother with the hairnet at all?

But as I said, your blood orange theory is interesting, and perhaps LF was working with Oberyn to off Tywin, but given the bad blood between Dorne and the Reach, there would be no reason for LF to want to mix these two plots into one grand scheme -- in fact there would be every reason not to.

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9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, since you're the OP and this is your thread, here we go:

The poison wasn't in the wine, it was in the pie: Tyron's slice that was meant for Tyrion and only Tyrion. The poison took Cressen down in seconds and his wine looked perfectly normal just before he took his fatal sip. Joffrey's wine, as shown by Tyrion at the end of the scene, is "deep purple" and therefore highly concentrated with poison, and he takes multiple chugs of it. So why does Joffrey show no affect at all for half-a-minute or more and doesn't start choking until a few seconds after he washes the pie down his throat?

Cersei on the throne vs. Joffrey? I would argue that in terms of impulsiveness, recklessness, hot-headedness and power-hungriness, Joffrey still wins. At best, it's only a minor difference for such a huge risk as regicide, and Tywin would still be in charge in any event. Plus, LF has been shown to be a much better manipulator of Joffrey than Cersei. LF in fact is later surprised at how quickly Cersei has made hash of the realm, so prior to that he thought she was at least marginally capable.

Also, why would Lady O go along with this? From her perspective, which is better: Margy married to Tommen (maybe) but with Cersei as regent for the next five years? Or Margy married to Joffrey with Cersei out of the picture and a new crown prince within the year? Wouldn't it make more sense to kill Joffrey after he got Margy with child, and then Margy rules as regent until her son comes of age? The only way it makes sense for Lady O to want to kill Joff at the wedding is if she was convinced that Margy would not survive the night with him, and this is clearly contraindicated in the text -- both by Lady O's and Margy's own words to Sansa and Joffrey's behavior toward Margy before and during the wedding.

I don't remember any text that has LF recommending Tyrion as MoC. That came from Tywin as I recall, and LF played his role of handing over the office before he departed the capital -- thinking all along, of course, that Tyrion would not live for long.

 

In order for the wine plan to work, LF would have to not only know that the joust would produce the tiff between Joff and Tyrion as expected, but that it would involve the chalice, that Tyrion would have to handle the chalice just before the poisoning, and even the exact position that Joffrey places the chalice before the cutting ceremony -- not a foot to the left or to the right that would put it out of arm's reach for the only possible poisoner, Garlan. This is simply too many unknowns, especially for Lady O who will be in the throne room with practically her entire family surrounded by Lannister guards.

Let's also not overlook the fact that the three-foot-tall chalice is in plain view of hundreds of people, and the odds of not one person seeing the drop -- even as the pigeons are taking flight -- are infinitesimally small.

LF and Lady O are gambling with their lives in the Game of Thrones and are pursuing dynastic ambitions through plans that have been months, if not years, in the making. There is no way they are going to risk everything on the hope that an entire series of unlikely events will happen just they way they want them to.

Have you read the World Book and the history between Dorne and the Reach? The possibility of Olenna and Oberyn -- the man who crippled her son -- making common cause is extremely slim. Even during Robert's Rebellion, the majority of reachmen camped out at Storm's End while Dorne marched north with Rhaegar.

It's just as likely that LF was in or near the capital monitoring events and teaching Lady O how to remove the poison from a duplicate hairnet -- after the Red Wedding, of course, when her need to kill Tyrion emerged. Indeed, if LF and Lady O planned the murder all the way back at Bitterbridge, then why bother with the hairnet at all?

But as I said, your blood orange theory is interesting, and perhaps LF was working with Oberyn to off Tywin, but given the bad blood between Dorne and the Reach, there would be no reason for LF to want to mix these two plots into one grand scheme -- in fact there would be every reason not to.

Willis is still friendly with Oberyn and I think Olenna could be as well. I am sure Mace blames  the Dornish for his own idiocy.  Both the Reach and Dorne  were Targ supporters  and left out of the current ruling coalition.  The whole rivalry seems more of a Smokescreen to me. 

 

@Bonkers also people forget that Baelish was friendly with Renly and the Tyrells since the start of the books. He helped alienate House Florence and I suspect he was behind the Antler Men.  Who were going to open the gate for Renly 

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17 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

The poison wasn't in the wine, it was in the pie: Tyron's slice that was meant for Tyrion and only Tyrion. The poison took Cressen down in seconds and his wine looked perfectly normal just before he took his fatal sip. Joffrey's wine, as shown by Tyrion at the end of the scene, is "deep purple" and therefore highly concentrated with poison, and he takes multiple chugs of it. So why does Joffrey show no affect at all for half-a-minute or more and doesn't start choking until a few seconds after he washes the pie down his throat?

 

I like a discussion, so please don't think I am being argumentative, lol

The wine perhaps could be explained by 1. Cressen added shards of crystals to Davos' half-full cup.  Much quicker to dissolve. 2. Joffery though, had a massive chalice and the stone added would take some time to dissolve and the tipping of the cup would have helped it. (think a block of salt in water, it dissolves slow at first if untouched).   3. The information about the colour of the wine indicates that there is poison in it.

18 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Cersei on the throne vs. Joffrey? I would argue that in terms of impulsiveness, recklessness, hotheadedness and power-hungriness, Joffrey still wins. At best, it's only a minor difference for such a huge risk as regicide, and Tywin would still be in charge in any event. Plus, LF has been shown to be a much better manipulator of Joffrey than Cersei. LF in fact is later surprised at how quickly Cersei has made hash of the realm, so prior to that he thought she was at least marginally capable

LF told Sansa later in the Vale, that he assumed he might have 4-5 years to work things out, and that Cersei has moved very fast to destroy the realm, I agree.  That would seem to suggest he thought perhaps Joffery may reign.  But he says this way after telling her about why Joffery was the target for the Tyrells to be killed.  Why didn't he just say "damn, oops.  That was meant for your husband.  My bad!"?  He lies to Sansa to cover his tracks.

But anyway, what if Tyrion HAD been poisoned....who would be blamed?  Sansa would be No.1 target!   And with a hair-net of poison, hmmm.  Bad plan LF! 

OR, you then may think that Oberyn would be a suspect!  Well that just makes me think even more that it was all a round-robin of plotting. 

Either way, LF caused a tiff between Joffery and Tyrion because he supplied the jousting dwarves, and told Joffery that Tyrion will hate them more than he will, so Joffery was anticipating humiliating Tyrion before they came out anyway.

9 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Also, why would Lady O go along with this? From her perspective, which is better: Margy married to Tommen (maybe) but with Cersei as regent for the next five years? Or Margy married to Joffrey with Cersei out of the picture and a new crown prince within the year? Wouldn't it make more sense to kill Joffrey after he got Margy with child, and then Margy rules as regent until her son comes of age? The only way it makes sense for Lady O to want to kill Joff at the wedding is if she was convinced that Margy would not survive the night with him, and this is clearly contraindicated in the text -- both by Lady O's and Margy's own words to Sansa and Joffrey's behavior toward Margy before and during the wedding.

No, I think Lady O is in on the plot of Doran's to bring House Lannister down.  It starts with Tywin, Tyrion, Jaime and Joffery.  Then next is Cersei, Keven and Tommen etc.  They have Marcella already.  Doran states that since the very day Elia was murdered, he has plotted to take Tywin down, and everything he holds dear.  LF has been milking Casterly Rock's gold dry for years.  If Lady O is involved, she would most likely be the only one of the Tyrells (plus perhaps Loras and Marg).  She is a Redwyne after all, not a true Tyrell.  She never particularly liked her husband, just his position.  I think she knew Cersei would be taken out soon.    Perhaps LF thought after Tywin was poisoned that Kevin Lannister would take Regency, after Cersei was removed from power (refer to said comment about 4-5 years to organise his pieces). 

Lady O was given Joffery's background by LF's men when they were at Bitterbridge, or so he says.  She knew what he was like.

9 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

I don't remember any text that has LF recommending Tyrion as MoC. That came from Tywin as I recall, and LF played his role of handing over the office before he departed the capital -- thinking all along, of course, that Tyrion would not live for long.

I took that from this text....assuming that Lord Tywin has already had discussions with LF prior to the meeting, and spoken to him about whom to choose. I doubt Tywin would let LF go without suggesting someone to consider. 

"All I do is count coppers, as King Robert used to say.  Any clever tradesman could do as well....and a Lannister, blessed with the touch of Casterly Rock, will no doubt far surpass me."  (throw back to Lann the Clever too)

Lady O is very cunning and very clever.  She refers to her late husband and her son (Tyrells) as oafs, as she is a Redwyne she may have the distance to consider a plot with LF and the Martells.  Now she may not have met with the Martells directly, but her going along with bringing down Tywin Lannister's house seems likely to me.  Mace of course would never know.  Both Tyrells and Martells were with the Dragon side in the rebellion, they have no cause to love the Lannisters. 

Plus, both are devote to the Seven, and that is huge.  The incest and marrying brothers and sisters was what cause the Faith Militant to rise up in the first place against the Iron Throne.  This is what Stannis sent letters about, and Renly was gaining the Dornish because (he tells Cat on the tower top at his feast before the parlay 'and soon enough the Dornishmen will join me with all their power'.  Some form of communication was going on between the Tyrells and Martells.

If LF did want to mix them together in his grand plan, it would only be to perhaps unite them before pinning them against eachother later....accusing each other of crimes. etc.

 

9 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

 

 

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Honest question about LF. Why are we taking everything he tells Sansa (and us, as a result) about plans at face value? He could just be telling half-truths (like the part about Tyrion and his wife).

Why are we taking LF's words about causing chaos at face value. He could just have fucked up but if you word it in that way, he appears in control.

 

I don't think LF never makes mistakes and I think Lysa's death was an impulsive action of his (like the kiss he gave Sansa). He acted impulsively and emotionally (because of sansa/Cat being in danger). But LF is very very good at making most out of a situation and finding solutions (Marillion was blamed instead).

 

Let's not forget that one of LF's beliefs/motivations is that Cat loved him and she gave him her virginity. Even LF is fallible because he's human and I don't think he trusts Sansa that much as to tell her everything (when Lysa confesses to poisoning Jon Arryn and the letter, doesn't LF just call the confession the ramblings of a crazy woman or something?)

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10 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Willis is still friendly with Oberyn and I think Olenna could be as well. I am sure Mace blames  the Dornish for his own idiocy.  Both the Reach and Dorne  were Targ supporters  and left out of the current ruling coalition.  The whole rivalry seems more of a Smokescreen to me. 

 

@Bonkers also people forget that Baelish was friendly with Renly and the Tyrells since the start of the books. He helped alienate House Florence and I suspect he was behind the Antler Men.  Who were going to open the gate for Renly 

I agree.  Renly told Cat he was expecting the Dornishmen to join him very soon, why would he say that unless he had contacts?  Sure it could be an empty boast to tell Rob (as at that time Stannis was not a known threat to him) but it would be a hugely gross mistake as a 'king' to say that if they were never for him.  I suspect LF had played both the Rose and the Sun, and had them working together.  Even if they were not directly communicating, they were a part of the plot.  Olenna particularly. 

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1 minute ago, Lifestream said:

Honest question about LF. Why are we taking everything he tells Sansa (and us, as a result) about plans at face value? He could just be telling half-truths (like the part about Tyrion and his wife).

Why are we taking LF's words about causing chaos at face value. He could just have fucked up but if you word it in that way, he appears in control.

 

I don't think LF never makes mistakes and I think Lysa's death was an impulsive action of his (like the kiss he gave Sansa). He acted impulsively and emotionally (because of sansa/Cat being in danger). But LF is very very good at making most out of a situation and finding solutions (Marillion was blamed instead).

 

Let's not forget that one of LF's beliefs/motivations is that Cat loved him and she gave him her virginity. Even LF is fallible because he's human and I don't think he trusts Sansa that much as to tell her everything (when Lysa confesses to poisoning Jon Arryn and the letter, doesn't LF just call the confession the ramblings of a crazy woman or something?)

Yeh, I think LF should be taken with a grain of salt (no red wedding pun implied).  What he tells Sansa is most definitely not the whole story.  He seems to be grooming her to trust him, which we know is not something anyone should do!

Did he orchestrate her wedding to Tyrion?  Did he get the Tyrells to offer Wyllis, knowing Tywin would forbid it?  Or did he get outsmarted by them, and then have to tell Tywin to stop the plan....hence she married Tyrion?  That would make his plan a fly-by-the-wind type plan.  It only fits if he knew the Tyrells would offer Wyllis and thus force Tywin to marry her to Tyrion.  

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6 hours ago, Bonkers said:

I like a discussion, so please don't think I am being argumentative, lol

The wine perhaps could be explained by 1. Cressen added shards of crystals to Davos' half-full cup.  Much quicker to dissolve. 2. Joffery though, had a massive chalice and the stone added would take some time to dissolve and the tipping of the cup would have helped it. (think a block of salt in water, it dissolves slow at first if untouched).   3. The information about the colour of the wine indicates that there is poison in it.

Cressen added a single "flake" from a crystal no larger than a "seed." So while technically a coconut is a seed, I think we can safely assume that the amount of poison in Cressen's cup was miniscule, but the amount of wine was less as well. And yes it would have dissolved very quickly.

Joffrey had a full crystal dropped into a chalice that Tyrion had filled three-quarters full from a single flagon and then Joffrey chugged that amount down quite a bit before the cutting ceremony began. All the amounts are inexact, but at this point I surmise the chalice is half-full at best. Since skinny Joffrey can lift the thing with one hand, it cannot hold an exorbitant amount of wine, but certainly more than a half-full goblet.

So first, the crystal hits the wine and has to sink to the bottom. Assuming that it was dropped the moment the pigeons took flight, it sits there for approx 10-15 seconds before Tyrion is ordered to retrieve the chalice, stirring up the contents. Then Joffrey "yanked it from his hands and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple (!) down his chin." So at this point, I think it is safe to assume that the crystal is thoroughly dissolved and Joffrey would be receiving multiple doses of "deep purple" wine.

How could the wine appear purple on his chin but contain no poison at all? Easily explained by thin rivulets of red wine against his pale skin. If the wine was purple at this point, why did it appear red when it spilled onto the dais?

And in any event, dissolving a poison like the strangler into a larger amount of wine would not delay the onset of the attack -- it would only weaken its severity. The poison works on direct contact with the throat, agreed? It does not enter the stomach, get absorbed into the blood and then circulated throughout the body back to the throat. If so, it would take at least a minute to work, not seconds. So if this is the case, then we can think of it like any other contact poison. If you drank a shot of straight ammonia, it would burn you instantly and you would probably die. If you poured the shot into a large glass of water, it would still burn you instantly, just not as badly and you might survive. If you placed a tiny drop of ammonia in a glass of water you probably wouldn't feel any burn at all, but then it won't reconcentrate itself back into pure form later. Same principal here.

7 hours ago, Bonkers said:

LF told Sansa later in the Vale, that he assumed he might have 4-5 years to work things out, and that Cersei has moved very fast to destroy the realm, I agree.  That would seem to suggest he thought perhaps Joffery may reign.  But he says this way after telling her about why Joffery was the target for the Tyrells to be killed.  Why didn't he just say "damn, oops.  That was meant for your husband.  My bad!"?  He lies to Sansa to cover his tracks.

But anyway, what if Tyrion HAD been poisoned....who would be blamed?  Sansa would be No.1 target!   And with a hair-net of poison, hmmm.  Bad plan LF! 

OR, you then may think that Oberyn would be a suspect!  Well that just makes me think even more that it was all a round-robin of plotting. 

Either way, LF caused a tiff between Joffery and Tyrion because he supplied the jousting dwarves, and told Joffery that Tyrion will hate them more than he will, so Joffery was anticipating humiliating Tyrion before they came out anyway.

Really? Oops? Sorry sweetling, we meant to kill your husband but we ended up killing the king by mistake. Now the entire realm thinks your a kingslayer and the queen has a bounty on your head. But don't worry, everything is under control. Just do everything I tell you...

Of course he has to lie to her at this point. He needs her complete faith and trust in him to carry out the next phase of this plan: to become another person. Do you have any idea how hard that is to do? Not just in public in front of men like Royce and Redfort, but in private as well, especially now that they've come down from the Eyrie. If Sansa has even the slightest doubt that LF has everything well in hand, the whole thing comes undone.

True, Sansa gets blamed no matter what, since she is missing. But the heat is much less for killing a vile dwarf than the king. Cersei isn't going to offer huge bags of silver for the murderer of her valonquar, but she does for her son -- and now one of those hunters is Sansa in the Vale.

As I mentioned, for the plan to work, LF has to do more than anticipate a spat between Joff and Tyrion. He has to know it will involve the chalice, that Tyrion will be the only one to handle the chalice after the poison is dropped, that Joff will place the chalice in the exact spot at the exact time for it to be poisoned. There is no way even Littlefinger could predict these things with any certainty, and even less chance that Lady O would agree to a plan that required such specific actions on the part of the victim and the fall guy. If the chalice had been set down a foot to the left or the right, the whole plan was bust.

8 hours ago, Bonkers said:

No, I think Lady O is in on the plot of Doran's to bring House Lannister down.  It starts with Tywin, Tyrion, Jaime and Joffery.  Then next is Cersei, Keven and Tommen etc.  They have Marcella already.  Doran states that since the very day Elia was murdered, he has plotted to take Tywin down, and everything he holds dear.  LF has been milking Casterly Rock's gold dry for years.  If Lady O is involved, she would most likely be the only one of the Tyrells (plus perhaps Loras and Marg).  She is a Redwyne after all, not a true Tyrell.  She never particularly liked her husband, just his position.  I think she knew Cersei would be taken out soon.    Perhaps LF thought after Tywin was poisoned that Kevin Lannister would take Regency, after Cersei was removed from power (refer to said comment about 4-5 years to organise his pieces). 

Well, maybe. It's just that this would fly in the face of thousands of years of animosity between Dorne and the Reach. Redwynes, Tyrells, Baratheons, it makes no matter: everyone hates the Dornish. And why bother if you are LF? Each plot can proceed perfectly fine without muddling them together.

8 hours ago, Bonkers said:

Lady O was given Joffery's background by LF's men when they were at Bitterbridge, or so he says.  She knew what he was like.

And yet she had to have a secret conversation with Sansa to ascertain the truth about him, supposedly months after she and LF had begun to plot his murder. How strange.

8 hours ago, Bonkers said:

I took that from this text....assuming that Lord Tywin has already had discussions with LF prior to the meeting, and spoken to him about whom to choose. I doubt Tywin would let LF go without suggesting someone to consider. 

"All I do is count coppers, as King Robert used to say.  Any clever tradesman could do as well....and a Lannister, blessed with the touch of Casterly Rock, will no doubt far surpass me."  (throw back to Lann the Clever too)

 

If I recall, LF had agreed to wed and bed Lady Lysa some months prior to this? So Tyrion would have been the only logical choice since he is no longer acting Hand. In the end, the choice was Tywin's, and I don't see any text that suggest LF suggested it or recommended Tyrion for the post.

 

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18 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Willis is still friendly with Oberyn and I think Olenna could be as well. I am sure Mace blames  the Dornish for his own idiocy.  Both the Reach and Dorne  were Targ supporters  and left out of the current ruling coalition.  The whole rivalry seems more of a Smokescreen to me. 

 

@Bonkers also people forget that Baelish was friendly with Renly and the Tyrells since the start of the books. He helped alienate House Florence and I suspect he was behind the Antler Men.  Who were going to open the gate for Renly 

The history is in the World Book: thousands of years of warfare, invasions, murders... If this is a smokescreen, then the entire history of the realm is false.

They were Targ supporters, but even Mad Aerys knew better than to put their armies together. He send Mace to sit on Storm's End while Lewyn took the spears north with Rhaegar.

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8 hours ago, Bonkers said:

Yeh, I think LF should be taken with a grain of salt (no red wedding pun implied).  What he tells Sansa is most definitely not the whole story.  He seems to be grooming her to trust him, which we know is not something anyone should do!

Did he orchestrate her wedding to Tyrion?  Did he get the Tyrells to offer Wyllis, knowing Tywin would forbid it?  Or did he get outsmarted by them, and then have to tell Tywin to stop the plan....hence she married Tyrion?  That would make his plan a fly-by-the-wind type plan.  It only fits if he knew the Tyrells would offer Wyllis and thus force Tywin to marry her to Tyrion.  

I think he might have had different plans for Sansa (probably to marry him himself) but I think he wanted to wait. But because Sansa told Dontos about her betrothal to Willas, LF found out and he ratted them out. I think it makes sense if we're to believe that LF has more power in KL than High Garden, so it might be more difficult if Sansa wasn't in KL anymore.

I mean Jaime freeing Tyrion did kinda fuck up LF's plans (if Tyrion had died, Sansa would be a widow and he could marry her again) so he's probably sent someone to kill Tyrion?

Of course there's more to see, if LF does intend to marry Sansa himself sometime in the future, he has not let her know and he makes himself appear as her only hope and savior.

 

I personally find the possibility of someone trying to kill off Tyrion as well in the wedding via the pigeon pie, rather interesting and while Tyrion is an important person, I do believe he is the best and safest to kill as opposed to Joffrey (as in it could pass or be accepted as an accident more easily) since Tyrion isn't that well-loved.(if anything Cersei would probably be somewhat pleased).

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On ‎1‎/‎28‎/‎2017 at 10:20 AM, Bonkers said:

Yeh, I think LF should be taken with a grain of salt (no red wedding pun implied).  What he tells Sansa is most definitely not the whole story.  He seems to be grooming her to trust him, which we know is not something anyone should do!

Did he orchestrate her wedding to Tyrion?  Did he get the Tyrells to offer Wyllis, knowing Tywin would forbid it?  Or did he get outsmarted by them, and then have to tell Tywin to stop the plan....hence she married Tyrion?  That would make his plan a fly-by-the-wind type plan.  It only fits if he knew the Tyrells would offer Wyllis and thus force Tywin to marry her to Tyrion.  

Exactly, and how in the heck is she supposed to trust him if he admits to her that he mucked up the murder of her husband and ended up killing the king instead?

No, LF did not orchestrate the Sansa/Tyrion match, although he probably guessed it would happen. He most definitely is the one who alerted Tywin to the Willas plot, given that the only people outside of Olenna's immediate circle who knew about it was Sansa, who told Dontos, who would naturally have told LF.

And none of this fits with the idea that LF and Olenna had been plotting the PW all along. If Lady O did not know that part of the plan was for LF to spirit Sansa out of the capital during the confusion, then what reason could LF possibly give to Lady O as to why he would want to kill the king? Because he likes chaos? At Bitterbridge, he is an envoy of the Lannisters, and as far as we know she and LF barely know each other. So wouldn't a sharp player like LO think that an offer by Tywin's envoy to kill Tywin's son, the king, for no apparent reason is nothing more than a set up? And if she did know about LF's plans for Sansa, then why would she expect to marry her off to Willas after the wedding? Why bother to worm the truth out of Sansa at all? Why bother with the hairnet?

If goes without saying, of course, that all of this fits perfectly with the real truth: that Lady O was not brought into the plot until after Tyrion and Sansa were wed and after Sansa became the last Stark following the Red Wedding. Then the need to kill Tyrion, and fast, was paramount for both LF and Lady O.

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On 1/18/2017 at 10:38 AM, Bonkers said:

First is the Sansa chapter in SoS 2 when they arrive at the Fingers.  Clearly his household staff have not seen him in a very long time, and neither has Lysa, whom insists on immediately marrying him on the spot. 

Hang on.

I'm confused. Wasn't Littlefinger the Master of Coin at the same time Jon Arryn was Hand of the King? Wasn't Lysa at court in Kings' Lanading with little Robert? Didn't she only leave for the Eyrie after Lord Jon's death?

 

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On 1/27/2017 at 8:54 PM, John Suburbs said:

I don't remember any text that has LF recommending Tyrion as MoC. That came from Tywin as I recall, and LF played his role of handing over the office before he departed the capital -- thinking all along, of course, that Tyrion would not live for long.

Oddly enough, I reread the passage just today:

A Storm of Swords

Tyrion III

Quote

"Master of coin?" said Tyrion in a thin,strained voice. Whose notion was that, pray?"

"Lord Petyr's," his father said, "but it serves us well to have the treasury in the hands of a Lannister. You have asked for important work. Do you fear you might not be up for the task?"

 

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