Bonkers

Littlefinger, Doran, Olenna ...and Oberyn plot?

88 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

Oddly enough, I reread the passage just today:

A Storm of Swords

Tyrion III

 

So he did. Nice catch. But who else would Tywin trust as MoC? By now, LF has probably already decided on Tyrion as the target. He's been trying to get rid of Tyrion since the beginning of the story: the dagger lie, Ser Mandon on the Blackwater...

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9 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

Hang on.

I'm confused. Wasn't Littlefinger the Master of Coin at the same time Jon Arryn was Hand of the King? Wasn't Lysa at court in Kings' Lanading with little Robert? Didn't she only leave for the Eyrie after Lord Jon's death?

 

Yes he was. Jon, Lysa, Baelish, and little Robert were all in King's Landing until Jon's dead. Then Lysa fled with little Robert. Cersei mentions being pissed about in GOT.

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So he did. Nice catch. But who else would Tywin trust as MoC? By now, LF has probably already decided on Tyrion as the target. He's been trying to get rid of Tyrion since the beginning of the story: the dagger lie, Ser Mandon on the Blackwater...

Yes Baelish has been working on getting Tyrion offed. I think he knew that when he left King's Landing all the balls he had been juggling would come crashing down on whoever replaced him. He suggested Tyrion a  Lannister knowing that he needed a job after his time as Hand. Tywin certainly wasn't about to give it to the Tyrells and thus kept it in the fami;y. Probably as Baelish knew he would.

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@John Suburbs I only came across those lines because I'm following a  book club video series and that particular passage was in a recent reading assignment. Also, I'm following Smokescreen's Foreshadowing series and so am very much alive to throw-away lines and references I'd missed.

Littlefinger's recommendation, casually mentioned by Lord Tywin,  stuck out to me because I'm a newbie (on my second reading of the books), and as newbies do, I ponder things which have been gone over for many years here. I'm constantly being amazed by the quietly understated involvement of Littlefinger in so many twists and turns in the books,

@Lord WraithTyrion being named as MoC at his suggestion is a very curious element indeed, especially if Littlefinger had really been juggling the books. I'm looking forward to knowing the truth of that particular insinuation in the future.

I find GRRM's use of citrus fruit is complex and fascinating.

Not only do we have the enigmatic lemon trees, but also the most curiously contrasting ways Littlefinger, Sansa and Arya eat blood oranges. Foreshadowing, or coincidence?

And those poetic, over-ripe oranges in the Water Gardens. I've been in Seville in the season when the pavements are covered in fallen over-ripe oranges- an eerie sight. I wonder if GRRM has seen that as well.

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Yes he was. Jon, Lysa, Baelish, and little Robert were all in King's Landing until Jon's dead. Then Lysa fled with little Robert. Cersei mentions being pissed about in GOT.

Yes Baelish has been working on getting Tyrion offed. I think he knew that when he left King's Landing all the balls he had been juggling would come crashing down on whoever replaced him. He suggested Tyrion a  Lannister knowing that he needed a job after his time as Hand. Tywin certainly wasn't about to give it to the Tyrells and thus kept it in the fami;y. Probably as Baelish knew he would.

 

16 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

@John Suburbs I only came across those lines because I'm following a  book club video series and that particular passage was in a recent reading assignment. Also, I'm following Smokescreen's Foreshadowing series and so am very much alive to throw-away lines and references I'd missed.

Littlefinger's recommendation, casually mentioned by Lord Tywin,  stuck out to me because I'm a newbie (on my second reading of the books), and as newbies do, I ponder things which have been gone over for many years here. I'm constantly being amazed by the quietly understated involvement of Littlefinger in so many twists and turns in the books,

@Lord WraithTyrion being named as MoC at his suggestion is a very curious element indeed, especially if Littlefinger had really been juggling the books. I'm looking forward to knowing the truth of that particular insinuation in the future.

I find GRRM's use of citrus fruit is complex and fascinating.

Not only do we have the enigmatic lemon trees, but also the most curiously contrasting ways Littlefinger, Sansa and Arya eat blood oranges. Foreshadowing, or coincidence?

And those poetic, over-ripe oranges in the Water Gardens. I've been in Seville in the season when the pavements are covered in fallen over-ripe oranges- an eerie sight. I wonder if GRRM has seen that as well.

I don't know if we can say for certain that Petyr approached Tywin out of the blue with the recommendation. MoC is the second most-powerful position behind the Hand, so Tywin doesn't want to give it to a Tyrell, a Hightower or a Redwyne unless he has to. But he can't very well hand it off to one of his junior bannermen because Mace will get bent out of shape, so Tyrion is his only choice. Petyr would certainly realize this, so as the departing MoC, at best he would have recommended Tyrion knowing that Tywin had already decided the matter, or else it looks like Petyr doesn't have the head for this level of thinking or is not providing faithful council to Tywin.

So while Tywin might say that the notion was Petyr's, knowing what we know about Tywin it's inconceivable that the matter had not already been decided.

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5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

I don't know if we can say for certain that Petyr approached Tywin out of the blue with the recommendation. MoC is the second most-powerful position behind the Hand, so Tywin doesn't want to give it to a Tyrell, a Hightower or a Redwyne unless he has to. But he can't very well hand it off to one of his junior bannermen because Mace will get bent out of shape, so Tyrion is his only choice. Petyr would certainly realize this, so as the departing MoC, at best he would have recommended Tyrion knowing that Tywin had already decided the matter, or else it looks like Petyr doesn't have the head for this level of thinking or is not providing faithful council to Tywin.

So while Tywin might say that the notion was Petyr's, knowing what we know about Tywin it's inconceivable that the matter had not already been decided.

Good point, @John Suburbs.

So.

Was Petyr actually embezzling Crown monies, or is that insinuation simply a Lannister rumour? 

I'm off to work and afterwards hope to find a fruiterer with blood oranges in stock (they're in season now)

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14 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

Good point, @John Suburbs.

So.

Was Petyr actually embezzling Crown monies, or is that insinuation simply a Lannister rumour? 

I'm off to work and afterwards hope to find a fruiterer with blood oranges in stock (they're in season now)

Oh, he's definitely embezzling from the crown. I would hazard a guess that probably half the six million gold pieces the crown owns the Iron Bank is sitting in Littlefinger's account with the same bank.

Here's just a little taste of what is going on:

Quote

Jaime I, aFFC:

"The crown pays wages for twenty turnkeys, my lord, a full score, but during my time we have never had more than twelve. We are supposed to have six undergaolers as well, two on each level, but there are only three."

...

Six prisoners, Jaime thought, while we pay wages for twenty turnkeys, six undergaolers, a chief undergaolor, a gaolor and a King's Justice.

All those extra wages are booked by Littlefinger as paid expenses, but the money is never handed out.

We also have LF naming the King's Counter, the King's Scales, the Keeper of the Keys and virtually all of the harbor masters, tax collectors, customs agents and the like. It's the oldest game in the book.

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3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Oh, he's definitely embezzling from the crown. I would hazard a guess that probably half the six million gold pieces the crown owns the Iron Bank is sitting in Littlefinger's account with the same bank.

Here's just a little taste of what is going on:

All those extra wages are booked by Littlefinger as paid expenses, but the money is never handed out.

We also have LF naming the King's Counter, the King's Scales, the Keeper of the Keys and virtually all of the harbor masters, tax collectors, customs agents and the like. It's the oldest game in the book.

Oh, naughty!

I'm on my second  reread and am only on ASOS- thanks for shouting out that example of, as you say, straight-up classic embezzling.

I raise my goblet of nicely chilled blood orange juice in your honour!

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On 29/01/2017 at 10:08 AM, John Suburbs said:
On 29/01/2017 at 10:08 AM, John Suburbs said:

Of course he has to lie to her at this point. He needs her complete faith and trust in him to carry out the next phase of this plan: to become another person. Do you have any idea how hard that is to do?

uh...this is a work of fiction so....no.  I have no idea, please enlighten me on the workings of the brains of the characters that another man has written.....and not finished the story about.

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On 29/01/2017 at 10:08 AM, John Suburbs said:

If I recall, LF had agreed to wed and bed Lady Lysa some months prior to this? So Tyrion would have been the only logical choice since he is no longer acting Hand. In the end, the choice was Tywin's, and I don't see any text that suggest LF suggested it or recommended Tyrion for the post.

At the end of that chapter when Tyrion talks to Tywin alone, he asks him who's idea it was, and Tywin says Petyr. 

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On 06/04/2017 at 4:06 AM, Prof. Cecily said:

Hang on.

I'm confused. Wasn't Littlefinger the Master of Coin at the same time Jon Arryn was Hand of the King? Wasn't Lysa at court in Kings' Lanading with little Robert? Didn't she only leave for the Eyrie after Lord Jon's death?

 

Yes.....she had not seen him for over a year since she left KL.

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Can we just remember this is not an arguement, this is a discussion.....weird ideas are welcome, but lets just keep it friendly and not sanctimonious.

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6 hours ago, Bonkers said:

Can we just remember this is not an arguement, this is a discussion.....weird ideas are welcome, but lets just keep it friendly and not sanctimonious.

Sorry, have I said something out of line?

If so, I heartily apologise!

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On ‎4‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 6:41 AM, Bonkers said:

 

Just imagine it: pretending to be someone you're not -- all the time, in front of everybody you meet, some of whom you have met before. She's already failing to keep up the pretense with Randa; imagine if she was harboring serious doubt that Littlefinger knows what he's doing, or has her best interests at heart.

Part of the joy of reading is to puzzle out the motivations (or the workings of the brains) of characters based on what they say and do.

On ‎4‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 6:44 AM, Bonkers said:

At the end of that chapter when Tyrion talks to Tywin alone, he asks him who's idea it was, and Tywin says Petyr. 

Yes, @Prof. Cecily already pointed that out, to which I replied above.

 

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On 27. Januar 2017 at 8:54 PM, John Suburbs said:

Well, since you're the OP and this is your thread, here we go:

The poison wasn't in the wine, it was in the pie: Tyron's slice that was meant for Tyrion and only Tyrion. The poison took Cressen down in seconds and his wine looked perfectly normal just before he took his fatal sip. Joffrey's wine, as shown by Tyrion at the end of the scene, is "deep purple" and therefore highly concentrated with poison, and he takes multiple chugs of it. So why does Joffrey show no affect at all for half-a-minute or more and doesn't start choking until a few seconds after he washes the pie down his throat?

Sorry for going slightly off topic again, but I thought about this theory a bit yesterday and need to ask: How did the stone get from the hairnet into the pie? With all the confusion about the wine chalice, it seems it would have offered better opportunity to slip poison into than the pie. But maybe I'm overlooking something. In any case, intriguing ideas here!

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, Gargarax said:

Sorry for going slightly off topic again, but I thought about this theory a bit yesterday and need to ask: How did the stone get from the hairnet into the pie? With all the confusion about the wine chalice, it seems it would have offered better opportunity to slip poison into than the pie. But maybe I'm overlooking something. In any case, intriguing ideas here!

I also had similar thoughts. Garlan was super nice to Tyrion, but I think he is genuine. 

What struck me was that Sansa thinks after when she is changing in the Godswood, that she wishes Shae were there to help her with the hairnet, implying Shae was the one who put it in.  Shae worked in the  kitchens with the servers and was bitter about not being able to attend.  Mayhaps she had already slept with Tywin/heard about Tywin's secret whoring and decided to off Tyrion to move up the ladder to Tywin - all orchestrated by LF of course.  It is possible that Shae removed the rock when she put it in, and had it put by a server into Tyrions pie.  This would perhaps explain why LF asked Sansa if anyone fiddled with her hairnet, knowing that at some point Shae would remove it - but not knowing Olenna would.  Although it may not be likely. I rather like the idea that the Queen of Thornes has it in her to be a badass player.  

Edited by Bonkers
added thought

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On 16/04/2017 at 3:07 AM, Prof. Cecily said:

Sorry, have I said something out of line?

If so, I heartily apologise!

No, you are all good lol!

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14 hours ago, Gargarax said:

Sorry for going slightly off topic again, but I thought about this theory a bit yesterday and need to ask: How did the stone get from the hairnet into the pie? With all the confusion about the wine chalice, it seems it would have offered better opportunity to slip poison into than the pie. But maybe I'm overlooking something. In any case, intriguing ideas here!

All sorts of ways. Most people are comfortable with Lady Olenna's trusted servants, but I don't think that's necessary.

We do know that Lady O was standing somewhere near Tyrion just before the pie ceremony began. She is on her feet, and most likely somewhere behind the head table. It's up on a dais, so she isn't likely to be in front of him, down on the throne room floor, nor standing on the table. We also know that the pie was served moments after the ceremony concluded -- literally within a few seconds -- and for the same reasons as Lady O, it most likely came from behind Tyrion. So Lady O, the pie and the poison are all in the same general area during the cutting. All she would have to do is make sure that the servant holding the plate is looking upward when she tucks the poison into the pie.

Contrast this with the wine, which is in a three-foot chalice sitting front and center on the head table and in plain view of virtually everyone in the entire room. Not only does this require quite a stretch from the only likely poisoner, Garlan, but he has to do it while Sansa and Tyrion are literally standing right next to it. To get an idea of the challenge this represents, stand a yardstick straight up on your kitchen table about three feet inward and to your left or right. Now imagine trying to reach the top with two short people right in front of it and hundreds of people facing you from nearly every direction. Even if Garlan could make this one-in-a-million move, the risk is simply too great for Lady O to even contemplate considering the entire Tyrell family would likely lose their heads if he fails.

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18 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

All sorts of ways. Most people are comfortable with Lady Olenna's trusted servants, but I don't think that's necessary.

We do know that Lady O was standing somewhere near Tyrion just before the pie ceremony began. She is on her feet, and most likely somewhere behind the head table. It's up on a dais, so she isn't likely to be in front of him, down on the throne room floor, nor standing on the table. We also know that the pie was served moments after the ceremony concluded -- literally within a few seconds -- and for the same reasons as Lady O, it most likely came from behind Tyrion. So Lady O, the pie and the poison are all in the same general area during the cutting. All she would have to do is make sure that the servant holding the plate is looking upward when she tucks the poison into the pie.

Contrast this with the wine, which is in a three-foot chalice sitting front and center on the head table and in plain view of virtually everyone in the entire room. Not only does this require quite a stretch from the only likely poisoner, Garlan, but he has to do it while Sansa and Tyrion are literally standing right next to it. To get an idea of the challenge this represents, stand a yardstick straight up on your kitchen table about three feet inward and to your left or right. Now imagine trying to reach the top with two short people right in front of it and hundreds of people facing you from nearly every direction. Even if Garlan could make this one-in-a-million move, the risk is simply too great for Lady O to even contemplate considering the entire Tyrell family would likely lose their heads if he fails.

It's hard to say where the pie is at the moment of cutting; the text does not make it clear. As it is a great spectacle, I would have imagine it is cut in front of the guests, not somewhere behind it. But I guess we all picture the hall differently.

However, there is no suggestion that the servant is already holding a plate and looking upward when the pie is cut - to me the suggestion is rather that he cuts a piece directly from the pie the pigeons flew out of and places it in front of Tyrion. The cup, on the other hand, is left standing next to Tyrion and Garlan for a while, and it's right next to Garlan and the Tyrells when the doves fly out of the pie. I'd say the window for putting something in the pie is a lot smaller than the one for the chalice. Although I have indeed never considered how bloody big that chalice was. Still, there's another problem: Would the crystal dissolve in the cake as easily as it would in wine? And if not, wouldn't that make the risk of placing it in a pie a much bigger risk?

I also mislike the idea that the Tyrells wanted to poison Tyrion, because Garlan is a such a nice guy to Tyrion during the feast. Even if it's naive of me, I want to continue believing that Garlan is one of the few nice people in Westeros -_- But I might be wrong there, I admit ...

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2 hours ago, Gargarax said:

It's hard to say where the pie is at the moment of cutting; the text does not make it clear. As it is a great spectacle, I would have imagine it is cut in front of the guests, not somewhere behind it. But I guess we all picture the hall differently.

However, there is no suggestion that the servant is already holding a plate and looking upward when the pie is cut - to me the suggestion is rather that he cuts a piece directly from the pie the pigeons flew out of and places it in front of Tyrion. The cup, on the other hand, is left standing next to Tyrion and Garlan for a while, and it's right next to Garlan and the Tyrells when the doves fly out of the pie. I'd say the window for putting something in the pie is a lot smaller than the one for the chalice. Although I have indeed never considered how bloody big that chalice was. Still, there's another problem: Would the crystal dissolve in the cake as easily as it would in wine? And if not, wouldn't that make the risk of placing it in a pie a much bigger risk?

I also mislike the idea that the Tyrells wanted to poison Tyrion, because Garlan is a such a nice guy to Tyrion during the feast. Even if it's naive of me, I want to continue believing that Garlan is one of the few nice people in Westeros -_- But I might be wrong there, I admit ...

The large pie with the pigeons in it is inedible. It has live birds crawling around in it. Also, Tyrion's piece is served within seconds of the cutting. Literally, it goes cut, pigeons, applause, twirl, and Tyrion gets his pie. That means they can't be cutting pieces off the big pie and walking them to the head table, nor can they be walking pies into the room after the ceremony concludes, or else Tyrion would not have been served so quickly. And indeed, the text makes no mention of all this cutting and plating of pies in the throne room, even though Tyrion has been giving us a moment-by-moment account of everything he sees and hears throughout the entire scene. The only realistic possibility is that the pies for eating were cut and plated before the ceremony and then placed in Tyrion's immediate vicinity -- either in the hands of a servant or on a table behind the head table -- so they can be served immediately at its conclusion. So there is plenty of time for Lady O to do the pie (she only needs a spit second), and at best she only has to make sure one person is not watching -- the servant holding the pie.

The crystal would not dissolve as rapidly in the pie as in the wine, but it doesn't have to dissolve completely to be effective. Remember, Joffrey: "See, it's good. A bit dry though. Needs washing down." Then he takes a chug of wine and about five seconds after that, just like Cressen, "the words caught in his throat." So from this we can infer that the crystal was dissolving in the pie, causing it to become dry, and the wine would only speed up the dissolution process as it entered his throat. At best, Tyrion would have bitten into something hard, which he would assume was a bone, and by the time he realizes it's not, it's too late.

Garlan is not needed to poison Tyrion, only Joffrey. But in any event, I'm not sure how you can square Garlan being too nice of a guy to poison Tyrion, but not too nice to poison Joffrey. Garlan is an anointed knight, descended from the line that literally invented chivalry. To have him stoop to poison -- a weapon for women, cowards and eunuchs -- would mean he is in fact a sniveling coward, which is belied by the fact that he waded into the thick of battle on the Blackwater to dispatch multiple foes. We also have the problem of Littlefinger knowing ahead of time that Joffrey will place the chalice close enough to Garlan -- not a foot to the left or to the right -- and then leave it there for the cutting ceremony. This is utterly impossible, unless we are now going to assume LF has magical prophetic abilities.

As for why the Tyrells need to kill Tyrion, that takes a bit of explaining, but I'll give you the short answer: Tyrion could at any moment father the next heir to Winterfell on Sansa. This would create a blood tie between the Lannisters and the leading house in the north, adding to their other recent gains in the Stormlands, Crownlands, the Iron Throne, the Riverlands and the Neck. This is a direct threat to the hegemony that Highgarden has maintained for thousands of years, primarily through the marriages between Gardner/Tyrell, Hightower and Redwyne. And since Tywin has shown himself to be a brutal enemy who doesn't just force rival houses into submission but burns their lands, murders their smallfolk, razes their castles and exterminates entire families right down to the stable boys, this is the most serious situation that Lady O, or any Tyrell in history has ever faced. It's certainly more frightening than Margaery getting a few black eyes from Joffrey.

 

 

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9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Garlan is not needed to poison Tyrion, only Joffrey. But in any event, I'm not sure how you can square Garlan being too nice of a guy to poison Tyrion, but not too nice to poison Joffrey. Garlan is an anointed knight, descended from the line that literally invented chivalry. To have him stoop to poison -- a weapon for women, cowards and eunuchs -- would mean he is in fact a sniveling coward, which is belied by the fact that he waded into the thick of battle on the Blackwater to dispatch multiple foes. We also have the problem of Littlefinger knowing ahead of time that Joffrey will place the chalice close enough to Garlan -- not a foot to the left or to the right -- and then leave it there for the cutting ceremony. This is utterly impossible, unless we are now going to assume LF has magical prophetic abilities.

I see you have really thought this through :)  - thanks for the explanation, I'm still intrigued. I thought the same thing about the pie as you, but there is absolutely no indication in the text. However, as Martin wrote the GoT episode of the Purple Wedding, and there it is as you say, I guess it's possible. Seems like a waste of cake though ...

You are right that Garlan slipping the poison into Joffrey's chalice doesn't make sense, as this would have been hard to plan. However, we know that LF tried very hard to convince Joffrey of using the dwarves to provoke a scene between him and Tyrion - what was the point of that if not to make Tyrion a suspect in the king's murder? It also seems strange that when Sansa talks to LF on the ship not an hour after Joffrey's death, LF knows that Joffrey is dead and shows no surprise at this. His reaction seems to suggest that everything went according to plan. He even seems to admit to planning Joffrey's death.

"My lord ... why ..."
"Why should I wish him dead?" Littlefinger shrugged. "I had no motive."

As to why the Tyrells would want to get rid of Tyrion, I agree with you. It just seems possible to me that they wanted to get rid of both of them, same as LF. However, I admit it's strange that they wanted Loras to joing the KG if they knew there would be no need to protect Marg from Joffrey.

I hope we'll find out at some point who put that bloody poison where ...

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