Bonkers

Littlefinger, Doran, Olenna ...and Oberyn plot?

88 posts in this topic

7 minutes ago, Gargarax said:

As to why the Tyrells would want to get rid of Tyrion, I agree with you. It just seems possible to me that they wanted to get rid of both of them, same as LF. However, I admit it's strange that they wanted Loras to joing the KG if they knew there would be no need to protect Marg from Joffrey.

Loras is a gay third son, meaning finding a lands and wife for him is going to be difficult. I mean it took a war to get lands for Garlan the second son. Getting him in the KG is the best thing that could happen to them. Its incredibly prestigious for House Tyrell and at look at the influence Loras already has on Tommen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Gargarax said:

I see you have really thought this through :)  - thanks for the explanation, I'm still intrigued. I thought the same thing about the pie as you, but there is absolutely no indication in the text. However, as Martin wrote the GoT episode of the Purple Wedding, and there it is as you say, I guess it's possible. Seems like a waste of cake though ...

You are right that Garlan slipping the poison into Joffrey's chalice doesn't make sense, as this would have been hard to plan. However, we know that LF tried very hard to convince Joffrey of using the dwarves to provoke a scene between him and Tyrion - what was the point of that if not to make Tyrion a suspect in the king's murder? It also seems strange that when Sansa talks to LF on the ship not an hour after Joffrey's death, LF knows that Joffrey is dead and shows no surprise at this. His reaction seems to suggest that everything went according to plan. He even seems to admit to planning Joffrey's death.

"My lord ... why ..."
"Why should I wish him dead?" Littlefinger shrugged. "I had no motive."

As to why the Tyrells would want to get rid of Tyrion, I agree with you. It just seems possible to me that they wanted to get rid of both of them, same as LF. However, I admit it's strange that they wanted Loras to joing the KG if they knew there would be no need to protect Marg from Joffrey.

I hope we'll find out at some point who put that bloody poison where ...

There is every indication in the text that the poison is in the pie and most definitely not in the wine. Just look at the enormous time discrepancy between the two poisons. Cressen drops in seconds, while Joffrey goes on for half a minute or more with no visible reaction -- a five- or six-fold delay. It is only after he eats the pie and then washes it down with wine that Joffrey starts to choke -- exactly the same time frame as Cressen, give or take a second or two. Also note that Joffrey's wine is supposedly poisoned to the extent that it has turned purple, while Cressen's doesn't not appear unusual at all, and Joffrey is consuming vastly larger quantities as well.

And let's not forget this little tidbit:

"It's, kof, the pie, noth, -- kof, pie."

Joffrey can feel everything happening in his throat and mouth, including what is causing his distress, and it's not the wine.

The dwarf joust was just a final dig at an enemy that LF has been trying to remove since the beginning of the story. And it is further evidence of how easy LF can manipulate Joffrey. So why on earth would he want to remove such a chaotic, easily manageable piece from the board? Also, if the dwarf joust doesn't make sense because it is not part of a larger plot, then what was the point of all that business about the pie after Joffrey drank his poison? In a novel that is already topping 420,000 words -- the longest in the series -- why have this extra page-and-a-half of text for absolutely no purpose?

As for the conversation on the boat, remember that this does not take place until almost dawn and the bells have been ringing all night. So if LF was closer to shore at any time during the night, or if he had a means to get information from the RK quickly, both of which are extremely likely given the seriousness of the crime he is about to commit, then he would naturally have news of Joffrey's death long before Sansa showed up. At that point, he has to pretend like everything is going according to plan because there is no way Sansa will be able to play her part as Alayne if she has even the slightest doubt that LF knows what he's doing.

The Tyrells have absolutely no reason to kill Joffrey, as I mentioned above. The whole reason for the wedding is not to give Margaery a safe, happy life, but to produce a blood tie to the Iron Throne. Now, instead of having a Tyrell heir to the IT in a year, they have to wait at least five years for Tommen to come of age. That is an extremely long time for a medieval society at war, during which anything could happen, including the deaths of Tommen, Margaery or both. They need an heir, or two, as quick as possible in order to cement their house to the ruling family.

And this is even if Tommen is offered, which wouldn't be the case if there was even the slightest suspicion that the Tyrells were behind Joffrey's murder. Tyrion only took the rap after an entire series of unpredictable events that allowed him to have his hands all over the chalice both before and after the poisoning. If even one of those things did not happen exactly as planned, there would not have been any plausible way to frame him, so suspicion would have fallen on the only other person to have touched it: Margaery.

Joffrey's death was a huge setback for both Littlefinger and the Tyrells.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No offense to whether the poison was in pie or wine there are dozens of topics on that issue and I see little reason to rehash it here. Could we get back on topic with the possible collusion between Baelish, the brothers Martell, and the smart Tyrells (Willas and Olenna).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

There is every indication in the text that the poison is in the pie and most definitely not in the wine. Just look at the enormous time discrepancy between the two poisons. Cressen drops in seconds, while Joffrey goes on for half a minute or more with no visible reaction -- a five- or six-fold delay. It is only after he eats the pie and then washes it down with wine that Joffrey starts to choke -- exactly the same time frame as Cressen, give or take a second or two. Also note that Joffrey's wine is supposedly poisoned to the extent that it has turned purple, while Cressen's doesn't not appear unusual at all, and Joffrey is consuming vastly larger quantities as well.

And let's not forget this little tidbit:

"It's, kof, the pie, noth, -- kof, pie."

Joffrey can feel everything happening in his throat and mouth, including what is causing his distress, and it's not the wine.

The dwarf joust was just a final dig at an enemy that LF has been trying to remove since the beginning of the story. And it is further evidence of how easy LF can manipulate Joffrey. So why on earth would he want to remove such a chaotic, easily manageable piece from the board? Also, if the dwarf joust doesn't make sense because it is not part of a larger plot, then what was the point of all that business about the pie after Joffrey drank his poison? In a novel that is already topping 420,000 words -- the longest in the series -- why have this extra page-and-a-half of text for absolutely no purpose?

As for the conversation on the boat, remember that this does not take place until almost dawn and the bells have been ringing all night. So if LF was closer to shore at any time during the night, or if he had a means to get information from the RK quickly, both of which are extremely likely given the seriousness of the crime he is about to commit, then he would naturally have news of Joffrey's death long before Sansa showed up. At that point, he has to pretend like everything is going according to plan because there is no way Sansa will be able to play her part as Alayne if she has even the slightest doubt that LF knows what he's doing.

The Tyrells have absolutely no reason to kill Joffrey, as I mentioned above. The whole reason for the wedding is not to give Margaery a safe, happy life, but to produce a blood tie to the Iron Throne. Now, instead of having a Tyrell heir to the IT in a year, they have to wait at least five years for Tommen to come of age. That is an extremely long time for a medieval society at war, during which anything could happen, including the deaths of Tommen, Margaery or both. They need an heir, or two, as quick as possible in order to cement their house to the ruling family.

And this is even if Tommen is offered, which wouldn't be the case if there was even the slightest suspicion that the Tyrells were behind Joffrey's murder. Tyrion only took the rap after an entire series of unpredictable events that allowed him to have his hands all over the chalice both before and after the poisoning. If even one of those things did not happen exactly as planned, there would not have been any plausible way to frame him, so suspicion would have fallen on the only other person to have touched it: Margaery.

Joffrey's death was a huge setback for both Littlefinger and the Tyrells.

 

I didn't mean there is no textual evidence for the poison being in the pie, but there is no textual evidence that might point to the poisoner. I agree that it might have been in the pie, for the reason you mentioned.

It's hard to say how much time passes between Sansa leaving the feast and stepping onto LF's ship. Cersei orders the guards to look for her almost immediately after Joffrey's final breath (okay, bad expression in this context ;)), so she can't have been in the castle for hours before climbing down with Dontos. Remember she had hidden her clothes on the way to save time. I'm not saying it's impossible for LF to have been ashore, but there is no textual evidence for that.

And there also is no evidence that what he does after is not what he had planned all along. If it was a setback, which again is possible, I don't remember anything that hinted at this. Maybe I'm a bit conservative here, but if the text suggests one thing (that killing Joffrey was the plan) and no sentence in the text says the opposite, I would assume the first is true, even tough it is theoretically possible it was a lie.

You also ask "why on earth would he want to remove such a chaotic, easily manageable piece from the board?". The answer is simple: Because Cersei is even more chaotic and more likely to make a mess, which AFFC proves to be true. We have seen that Joffrey is firmly in the hands of Tywin a few chapters before, when he sent the king to bed and Joffrey complied. With Joffrey and Margaery on the throne, Tywin as hand and the Tyrells, the Lannisters and, to a degree, the Martells at peace with each other, Joffrey's outbursts and little cruelties could hardly have sown chaos. And controlling him from the Vale would have proven hard. With Joff dead, however, the chaos will take care of itself while LF can care about other matters.

Lastly, I don't agree with you that the Tyrells have no reason to kill Joffrey, they have several. One of the first chapters in ASOS has Lady Olenna and Margaery question Sansa thoroughly about how he treated her. This chapter is almost useless for plot advancement if we believe that the Tyrells don't really care about how M will be treated. I know the Tyrells are not the nice guys, but rather Lannisters with PR, but they do worry about M's treatment. Knowing Joffrey's temper and cruelty, they might also fear he would bring further war, refuse good coulsel or abuse his power again. He is a liability as a king, and waiting a few more years for the second wedding makes sense in the long run. Until then, the Lannisters would also have to keep courting them, which works in their favour. And while I agree that the Tyrells won't like Tyrion as Warden of the North, would that be enough? They would be the main suspects: they are sitting around him and they resented him marrying Sansa. As WotN, he would be removed from King's Landing, and the Tyrells might even influence him via Sansa, who knows. I would say killing him is the greater risk and accomplishes very little. And while LF might have wanted Tyrion dead when he was a successful Hand, that motive is no longer valid as Tyrion has lost his power. In fact, Tyrion failing as Master of Coin would only increase the crown's need for LF in the future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎4‎/‎29‎/‎2017 at 2:47 AM, Gargarax said:

I didn't mean there is no textual evidence for the poison being in the pie, but there is no textual evidence that might point to the poisoner. I agree that it might have been in the pie, for the reason you mentioned.

By that standard, though, there is no textual evidence that points to the poisoner of the wine either.

On ‎4‎/‎29‎/‎2017 at 2:47 AM, Gargarax said:

It's hard to say how much time passes between Sansa leaving the feast and stepping onto LF's ship. Cersei orders the guards to look for her almost immediately after Joffrey's final breath (okay, bad expression in this context ;)), so she can't have been in the castle for hours before climbing down with Dontos. Remember she had hidden her clothes on the way to save time. I'm not saying it's impossible for LF to have been ashore, but there is no textual evidence for that.

"She passed through twelve feet of wall, and then she was outside the castle, standing at the top of a cliff. Below was the river, above the sky, and one was as black as the other."

So it's in the middle of the night, then in the row boat:

"The shore fell away, the fog grew thicker, the sound of the bells began to fade. Finally, even the lights were gone, lost somewhere behind them. They were out in the Blackwater Bay, and the world shrank to dark water, blowing mist, and their silent companion stooped over the oars."

snip

"Abashed, Sansa bit her lip and huddled down into silence. The rest was rowing, rowing, rowing.

"The eastern sky was vague with the first hint of dawn when Sansa finally saw a ghostly shape in the darkness ahead..."

So by the time she reaches Littlefinger, dawn is breaking and they have rowed so far out into the Blackwater that not even the lights were seen when it was still dark. This can only be hours after she left the castle; plenty of time for LF to have gotten word of what happened, either by the bells or, more likely, by a direct messenger who skiffed out to the Merling King. And no, there is no text, but do you honestly think that with an operation of this magnitude, where getting caught means your head, that a smart player like LF would just sit on a boat all night long, with no word of what's happening on land and whether the remnants of the royal fleet are out hunting for him, and just wait for Sansa to come rowing up out of the mist?

A question for you though: Why does LF make Sansa row all that way until the sun comes up, when he could have just as easily picked her up a hundred yards offshore in the pitch darkness?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎4‎/‎29‎/‎2017 at 2:47 AM, Gargarax said:

And there also is no evidence that what he does after is not what he had planned all along. If it was a setback, which again is possible, I don't remember anything that hinted at this. Maybe I'm a bit conservative here, but if the text suggests one thing (that killing Joffrey was the plan) and no sentence in the text says the opposite, I would assume the first is true, even tough it is theoretically possible it was a lie.

The only text that suggests the plan was to kill Joffrey is the trusted word of Littlefinger after the fact. Sorry, but with everything that has happened so far, it is way more than theoretical that what LF is saying is a lie, particularly when we have all the physical and logistical evidence that disproves the wine.

 

On ‎4‎/‎29‎/‎2017 at 2:47 AM, Gargarax said:

You also ask "why on earth would he want to remove such a chaotic, easily manageable piece from the board?". The answer is simple: Because Cersei is even more chaotic and more likely to make a mess, which AFFC proves to be true. We have seen that Joffrey is firmly in the hands of Tywin a few chapters before, when he sent the king to bed and Joffrey complied. With Joffrey and Margaery on the throne, Tywin as hand and the Tyrells, the Lannisters and, to a degree, the Martells at peace with each other, Joffrey's outbursts and little cruelties could hardly have sown chaos. And controlling him from the Vale would have proven hard. With Joff dead, however, the chaos will take care of itself while LF can care about other matters.

Cersei is not more chaotic than Joffrey, not by a long shot, and Littlefinger has a far easier time influencing him than her. Cersei not only effectively out-maneuvered both Ned and Robert during the final months of Robert's reign (not a huge feat, of course, but could Joffrey have done the same?), she also has a proven penchant for subtly, seduction and back-channel scheming. She also has at least some grasp of the geopolitical situation she's in and the role that armies play in maintaining one's power. Joffrey has none of these skills. He simply struts around the capital shooting rabbits and smallfolk, barking commands and belittling all those around him for no other reason than he's the king.

Littlefinger has also shown how easily he can manipulate Joffrey, through the dwarf joust and, if you read between the lines, through Ned's execution and, what I think will be revealed soon, Bran's assassination attempt.

AFFC only shows the mess Cersei has created, and that is only because Tywin is dead. There is no way this can be seen as proof that things would be less chaotic under Joffrey if he had been given a free hand to do whatever he wanted. How, exactly, is LF supposed to control Cersei from the Vale? Why would chaos simply happen under Cersei, but all would be peace and calm under Joffrey?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎4‎/‎29‎/‎2017 at 2:47 AM, Gargarax said:

Lastly, I don't agree with you that the Tyrells have no reason to kill Joffrey, they have several. One of the first chapters in ASOS has Lady Olenna and Margaery question Sansa thoroughly about how he treated her. This chapter is almost useless for plot advancement if we believe that the Tyrells don't really care about how M will be treated. I know the Tyrells are not the nice guys, but rather Lannisters with PR, but they do worry about M's treatment. Knowing Joffrey's temper and cruelty, they might also fear he would bring further war, refuse good coulsel or abuse his power again. He is a liability as a king, and waiting a few more years for the second wedding makes sense in the long run. Until then, the Lannisters would also have to keep courting them, which works in their favour. And while I agree that the Tyrells won't like Tyrion as Warden of the North, would that be enough? They would be the main suspects: they are sitting around him and they resented him marrying Sansa. As WotN, he would be removed from King's Landing, and the Tyrells might even influence him via Sansa, who knows. I would say killing him is the greater risk and accomplishes very little. And while LF might have wanted Tyrion dead when he was a successful Hand, that motive is no longer valid as Tyrion has lost his power. In fact, Tyrion failing as Master of Coin would only increase the crown's need for LF in the future.

You're not alone in misreading the intent of that dinner conversation. Here is my first question: What, exactly, does Sansa tell Lady O about Joffrey that she shouldn't already know by now?

First off, Lady O should have learned all there is to learn about Joffrey from both Loras and/or Renly, who were up close and personal with him for months, if not years.

Secondly, after her first futile attempts at lying, Sansa says Joff is a monster who cut off her father's head and called it mercy. Well that is certainly no big secret. Joffrey declared in open court that if Ned confessed he would be merciful. Then, when Ned did confess, in public at the Sept of Baylor, Joffrey again declared publicly that despite the wishes of his mother, his betrothed and his small council, he was taking Ned's head anyway. So right there, Lady O has all the info she needs to confirm that Joffrey is cruel, heedless and completely oblivious to his military/political situation.

Then Sansa mentions the beatings. Should this surprise Lady O? Not really. Sansa is appearing at court all black and blue, and the only person on the planet who could do that and live is the king himself. And if there was any doubt, the final beating following the battle at Oxcross took place in the bailey in front of dozens of high lords and ladies, including Lady O's own grandsons.

So if none of this is news to Lady O, than what was the point of that conversation? Well, ask yourself, what is it about this situation that Lady O does not know and that she can only get from Sansa directly? How about Sansa herself? All Lady O knows about her is that she is the daughter of Ned Stark and that during his time as hand she presented herself at court as a pretty, dutiful young lady who practiced her courtesies and wore very fine clothes. Then, afterward, she was shunned by the court. No one spoke to her, dined with her, nothing.

But as Lady O knows better than anybody, court impressions can be deceiving. What kind of person is Sansa really? Is she smart, foolish, kind, scheming...? In should, would she make a good addition to House Tyrell, or would she be a big PoA? Once Sans told the truth about Joffrey, the truth that Lady O already knew, that proved that Sansa has a good heart and would put her own future at risk by warning a complete stranger away from Joffrey. And it was right after that that Willas was put on the table.

 

As for the rest, I think I've gone over that before. Waiting a few years for Tommen is not an option in a feudal society where war, disease and assassinations can claim kings at any time, especially young ones. A few bruises and black eyes are well worth the price of the IT; it's nothing Cersei and countless others haven't endured. Wholesale, wanton destruction of your realm and your seat, however, that is a thing to be feared. The Tyrells have maintained their hegemony though marriage, so they are more concerned by Tywin's attempt to do the same than anything else. It's not just about Tyrion and Sansa but on the relative strengths of their houses, and the Tyrells cannot abide Casterly Rock controlling half the realm -- they share a common border that is at least 200 leagues long and the chance of conflict at some point is all but certain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎4‎/‎28‎/‎2017 at 11:09 PM, Lord Wraith said:

No offense to whether the poison was in pie or wine there are dozens of topics on that issue and I see little reason to rehash it here. Could we get back on topic with the possible collusion between Baelish, the brothers Martell, and the smart Tyrells (Willas and Olenna).

I think we've covered that, but since the OP's underlying assumption -- that LF and LO plotting to kill Joffrey is canon -- is demonstrably false, we need to correct that to put any plotting between Baelish and Martell in perspective.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I think we've covered that, but since the OP's underlying assumption -- that LF and LO plotting to kill Joffrey is canon -- is demonstrably false, we need to correct that to put any plotting between Baelish and Martell in perspective.

False from your perspective, plenty of others disagree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

A question for you though: Why does LF make Sansa row all that way until the sun comes up, when he could have just as easily picked her up a hundred yards offshore in the pitch darkness?

Obviously because he can't take the chances to be seen - everyone believes he is in the Vale. Or do you have another explanation? Of course it is possible that he was informed by somebody who rowed out before, but again: no textual evidence. 

9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The only text that suggests the plan was to kill Joffrey is the trusted word of Littlefinger after the fact. Sorry, but with everything that has happened so far, it is way more than theoretical that what LF is saying is a lie, particularly when we have all the physical and logistical evidence that disproves the wine.

If it was the pie, why would that suggest it wasn't LF? I don't think they way Joffrey was poisoned points to any poisoner.

9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Cersei is not more chaotic than Joffrey, not by a long shot, and Littlefinger has a far easier time influencing him than her. Cersei not only effectively out-maneuvered both Ned and Robert during the final months of Robert's reign (not a huge feat, of course, but could Joffrey have done the same?), she also has a proven penchant for subtly, seduction and back-channel scheming. She also has at least some grasp of the geopolitical situation she's in and the role that armies play in maintaining one's power. Joffrey has none of these skills. He simply struts around the capital shooting rabbits and smallfolk, barking commands and belittling all those around him for no other reason than he's the king.

Thank you for proving my point - Joff has no skills for real chaos, Cersei does, way before AFFC (see highlighted sentence). Remember that LF organised for the Kettleblacks to join her service? Part of his plan seems to be to enable Cersei's chaotic behaviour.

9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Littlefinger has also shown how easily he can manipulate Joffrey, through the dwarf joust and, if you read between the lines, through Ned's execution and, what I think will be revealed soon, Bran's assassination attempt.

There is another thread discussing this. Martin confirmed we know who tried to assassinate Bran. It was Joffrey, LF had nothing to do with it. Of that, I am convinced, even if it's not the most satisfying explanation.

9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

You're not alone in misreading the intent of that dinner conversation. Here is my first question: What, exactly, does Sansa tell Lady O about Joffrey that she shouldn't already know by now?

First off, Lady O should have learned all there is to learn about Joffrey from both Loras and/or Renly, who were up close and personal with him for months, if not years.

I'm sorry, but no. This is pure speculation, and if the text says otherwise, I'll believe what the text says. She might have heard rumours, she even says so, but Sansa also says that she was made to look at Ned's head on the spike. That the chapter's purpose might be to check if Sansa could be a match for Willas seems a bit absurd: Why would the Tyrell's care about Sansa being a good person, while being indifferent if Joffrey is a monster? That doesn't make sense to me. I'd rather go with the more obvious solution. I also don't think I am misreading the text when my opinion is based on what is actually on the page, while yours relies mostly on speculation about stuff the text tells us nothing about ...

9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

As for the rest, I think I've gone over that before. Waiting a few years for Tommen is not an option in a feudal society where war, disease and assassinations can claim kings at any time, especially young ones. A few bruises and black eyes are well worth the price of the IT; it's nothing Cersei and countless others haven't endured. Wholesale, wanton destruction of your realm and your seat, however, that is a thing to be feared. The Tyrells have maintained their hegemony though marriage, so they are more concerned by Tywin's attempt to do the same than anything else. It's not just about Tyrion and Sansa but on the relative strengths of their houses, and the Tyrells cannot abide Casterly Rock controlling half the realm -- they share a common border that is at least 200 leagues long and the chance of conflict at some point is all but certain.

Again, you prove my point. If the marriage is postponed, Tywin has to court the Tyrells for a few more years; for this time, no Lannister can rule without the Tyrells' consent, which Tywin himself says repeatedly and not coincidentally. Tywin can be controlled by the Tyrells, Joffrey can't. He is a psychopath, as the Tyrells know, while Tywin is a strategist and far more reasonable. Tywin tries to end the war, Joffrey likes the war. Margaery would have no influence at all as queen to Joffrey, who does as he pleases. Tywin ruling as hand is the best thing that could happen to the realm, and for the moment the best thing for the Tyrells - Tywin can't do shit without Mace's approval.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

False from your perspective, plenty of others disagree.

lol, only because they ignore what's actually in the text and invent their own unsupported explanations for all the ways that it doesn't add up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Gargarax said:

Obviously because he can't take the chances to be seen - everyone believes he is in the Vale. Or do you have another explanation? Of course it is possible that he was informed by somebody who rowed out before, but again: no textual evidence. 

It's pitch dark and he's a hundred yards offshore. Who is going to see? By the time he does pick her up, it's dawn.

There is plenty of textual evidence that LF is a careful player who covers all of his bases. There is simply no way he is just going to sit in a boat in the dark all night long and hope against hope that Sansa comes rowing out of the mist. He has to have a way of knowing what is happening in the RK in case he has to hightail it to Braavos.

This is why he waits for Sansa. In the dark, way out in the bay, there is no way of knowing if the remnants of the royal fleet or any Redwyne/Tarly boats have been sent to capture them. As long as he doesn't have Sansa, he can pass himself off as a simple trader to any navy captain who searches him. Once he has Sansa, though, he's a dead duck if boarded. So he has to wait until she's far enough from King's Landing so he can avoid capture once he does have her, and in the light of dawn he can look around for leagues in every direction to see that no one else it about.

16 hours ago, Gargarax said:

If it was the pie, why would that suggest it wasn't LF? I don't think they way Joffrey was poisoned points to any poisoner.

I'm not sure I follow. It was LF, with Lady O and no one else. LF provided the hairnet and LO palmed the crystal. How could it be anyone else, wine or pie?

16 hours ago, Gargarax said:

Thank you for proving my point - Joff has no skills for real chaos, Cersei does, way before AFFC (see highlighted sentence). Remember that LF organised for the Kettleblacks to join her service? Part of his plan seems to be to enable Cersei's chaotic behavior.

Sorry, but we're not reading the same book anymore. Unthinking, uncaring Joffrey has done nothing but prove how chaotic he is. He executed Ned and brought the north into the war -- something Cersei would not have done. He beat Sansa and put Jaime's life at risk -- something Cersei put a stop to. He sent the Hound into the mob to kill the cow-pie thrower and nearly got the entire royal party killed. He spent his time during the battle flinging traitors into the river with the three whores when they should have been launching fire and boulders at the invaders.

Cersei has made her share of boners, to be sure, but at least she has a marginal awareness of what's happening around her, whereas Joffrey is the definition of chaos because he has no clue what he's doing.

18 hours ago, Gargarax said:

There is another thread discussing this. Martin confirmed we know who tried to assassinate Bran. It was Joffrey, LF had nothing to do with it. Of that, I am convinced, even if it's not the most satisfying explanation.

Yes, it was Joffrey. What we don't know is why. You'll find out soon enough that it was at Littlefinger's goading. Sit tight and you'll get your satisfactory explanation.

18 hours ago, Gargarax said:

I'm sorry, but no. This is pure speculation, and if the text says otherwise, I'll believe what the text says. She might have heard rumours, she even says so, but Sansa also says that she was made to look at Ned's head on the spike. That the chapter's purpose might be to check if Sansa could be a match for Willas seems a bit absurd: Why would the Tyrell's care about Sansa being a good person, while being indifferent if Joffrey is a monster? That doesn't make sense to me. I'd rather go with the more obvious solution. I also don't think I am misreading the text when my opinion is based on what is actually on the page, while yours relies mostly on speculation about stuff the text tells us nothing about ...

It's called reading the subtext. Lady O has multiple sources that she knows and trusts for everything Sansa tells her about Joffrey -- that's a fact. She doesn't need the word of a perfect stranger to suddenly learn the truth. Sansa would become a member of House Tyrell, and live and have influence over the goings on at Highgarden. Margaery would be queen in King's Landing and would have to do what was necessary for the security and prosperity of her house, monster or no monster.

But if all you're using to form an opinion is what is "actually on the page", then there is no way you can believe the wine theory. The text says Cressen drinks and drops in seconds while Joff goes on for half a minute or more. The text says Joffrey's wine was deep purple while Cressen's didn't appear unusual at all. The text has both Margaery and Lady O exhibiting no fear or concern about Joffrey in the least, and Joffrey is merrily twirling her around during the wedding. The text has Garlan and Leonette befriending both Tyrion and Sansa, and Garlan is a noble, chivalrous knight who does not use poison. The text says LF would have to know exactly where Joffrey would place the chalice for it to be poisoned, and that Tyrion would have his hands all over it just before. The text has LF first convincing the Tyrells that Joffrey is a lamb, then as soon as they commit to the wedding he tells Lady O that he lied and Joff's really a monster. And instead of bringing this info directly to Mace, she signs right on to the plan of this known liar and double-dealer that has her poisoning the king in a room where her entire family is surrounded by Lannisters while LF is safe aboard his boat out in the bay. None of the explanations used to gloss over these facts has any textual evidence, and most are directly refuted by both text and basic reality.

19 hours ago, Gargarax said:

Again, you prove my point. If the marriage is postponed, Tywin has to court the Tyrells for a few more years; for this time, no Lannister can rule without the Tyrells' consent, which Tywin himself says repeatedly and not coincidentally. Tywin can be controlled by the Tyrells, Joffrey can't. He is a psychopath, as the Tyrells know, while Tywin is a strategist and far more reasonable. Tywin tries to end the war, Joffrey likes the war. Margaery would have no influence at all as queen to Joffrey, who does as he pleases. Tywin ruling as hand is the best thing that could happen to the realm, and for the moment the best thing for the Tyrells - Tywin can't do shit without Mace's approval.

Where are you getting this from? Talk about claims with no textual evidence. In what way does Tywin no longer need the Tyrells if Joffrey lives? He can't hope to win the war without them. Where did you get the idea that Tywin would not be Joffrey's Hand? On what text do you conclude that Joffrey likes the war, or that he doesn't want to win it? How can you possibly think that Margaery has no influence on Joffrey? Read the wedding again, particularly the cutting ceremony: "Widows Wail was not meant for slicing pies." Translation: "Ooh, mighty king. Your sword is so big and powerful." She manipulates him like a pro. In fact, other than Littlefinger, she is the only one in the entire realm who does have influence over him. Where she would have no influence is as Tommen's queen because in that case Cersei serves as regent until Tommen comes of age, and the Tyrells can forget about controlling Cersei.

As for the psychopath stuff, this is also a common belief, but false. Joffrey is not a psychopath, neither in the clinical nor vernacular sense. He is vain, selfish, an egomaniac, perhaps manic depressive, and completely without boundaries, but he doesn't beat random women for no reason, he doesn't torture and murder people in his bedroom (that's just the show), and as the text clearly shows he is absolutely no danger to Margaery.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Where are you getting this from? Talk about claims with no textual evidence. In what way does Tywin no longer need the Tyrells if Joffrey lives? He can't hope to win the war without them. Where did you get the idea that Tywin would not be Joffrey's Hand? On what text do you conclude that Joffrey likes the war, or that he doesn't want to win it? How can you possibly think that Margaery has no influence on Joffrey? Read the wedding again, particularly the cutting ceremony: "Widows Wail was not meant for slicing pies." Translation: "Ooh, mighty king. Your sword is so big and powerful." She manipulates him like a pro. In fact, other than Littlefinger, she is the only one in the entire realm who does have influence over him. Where she would have no influence is as Tommen's queen because in that case Cersei serves as regent until Tommen comes of age, and the Tyrells can forget about controlling Cersei.

As for the psychopath stuff, this is also a common belief, but false. Joffrey is not a psychopath, neither in the clinical nor vernacular sense. He is vain, selfish, an egomaniac, perhaps manic depressive, and completely without boundaries, but he doesn't beat random women for no reason, he doesn't torture and murder people in his bedroom (that's just the show), and as the text clearly shows he is absolutely no danger to Margaery.

I didn't say the Tyrells are no longer needed if Joffrey is king. I made this point based on the assumption that the Tyrells both want Margaery married to a reliable, reasonable and just king (which Joffrey is not) as well as keeping their alliance with the Lannisters (which is why they immediately press for her to wed Thommen, which they know Tywin will have to agree to).

Joffrey would not have listened for Tywin much longer, that much is clear from the scene in which he is confronting Tywin about his role in Robert's Rebellion. He wouldn't have agreed to be sent to bed for much longer, more likely he'd have tried to kill Tywin as he tried to kill Tyrion. Tommen is the perfect puppet king through whom the council can do whatever they want. The fact that Cersei is Queen Regent is not important, as she has no power in that office as long as Tywin is Hand. Even if you're right and Margaery could manipulate Joffrey, that is a high risk (and while the show has Margaery be a master manipulator from the start, the book is deliberately reluctant to say whether she is just a very polite girl or a clever little schemer). Ruling with Tywin through Tommen is easier and keeps Margaery protected.

I haven't read any in-depth analysis of whether Joffrey is a psychopath, and I agree I used the term in a more colloqual sense. He does show a number of the key signs, though. He doesn't just beat Sansa, he also cuts up cats to see the kittens inside and shoots cats in his throne room with a crossbow. We know that he can behave very courteously when it suits him, but can turn in an instant. We do not have enough evidence that he is no danger to Margaery.

One last thought: I hate to use the show for any book-related argument, but I also can't ignore the fact that Martin wrote the wedding episode in season four and had Lady Olenna put the poison in Joffrey's cup. But yes, maybe he did that because he knew the show would never go for anything more subtle than this anyway.

I agree with you that the poison might have been in the pie rather than the wine. I'm sure removing Tyrion from the rank of players was part of the plan as well. I remain convinced though that Joffrey was the target for the poison. We'll just have to agree to disagree, as much fun as this has been ;). I'll be the first to agree I was wrong if TWOW confirms your theory, but I seriously doubt it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Gargarax said:

I didn't say the Tyrells are no longer needed if Joffrey is king. I made this point based on the assumption that the Tyrells both want Margaery married to a reliable, reasonable and just king (which Joffrey is not) as well as keeping their alliance with the Lannisters (which is why they immediately press for her to wed Thommen, which they know Tywin will have to agree to).

Joffrey would not have listened for Tywin much longer, that much is clear from the scene in which he is confronting Tywin about his role in Robert's Rebellion. He wouldn't have agreed to be sent to bed for much longer, more likely he'd have tried to kill Tywin as he tried to kill Tyrion. Tommen is the perfect puppet king through whom the council can do whatever they want. The fact that Cersei is Queen Regent is not important, as she has no power in that office as long as Tywin is Hand. Even if you're right and Margaery could manipulate Joffrey, that is a high risk (and while the show has Margaery be a master manipulator from the start, the book is deliberately reluctant to say whether she is just a very polite girl or a clever little schemer). Ruling with Tywin through Tommen is easier and keeps Margaery protected.

I haven't read any in-depth analysis of whether Joffrey is a psychopath, and I agree I used the term in a more colloqual sense. He does show a number of the key signs, though. He doesn't just beat Sansa, he also cuts up cats to see the kittens inside and shoots cats in his throne room with a crossbow. We know that he can behave very courteously when it suits him, but can turn in an instant. We do not have enough evidence that he is no danger to Margaery.

One last thought: I hate to use the show for any book-related argument, but I also can't ignore the fact that Martin wrote the wedding episode in season four and had Lady Olenna put the poison in Joffrey's cup. But yes, maybe he did that because he knew the show would never go for anything more subtle than this anyway.

I agree with you that the poison might have been in the pie rather than the wine. I'm sure removing Tyrion from the rank of players was part of the plan as well. I remain convinced though that Joffrey was the target for the poison. We'll just have to agree to disagree, as much fun as this has been ;). I'll be the first to agree I was wrong if TWOW confirms your theory, but I seriously doubt it.

lol, fair enough. Happy reading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3. Mai 2017 at 10:32 PM, John Suburbs said:

lol, fair enough. Happy reading.

I hope you didn't read my last post as an attempt to just kill the discussion, or that I simply wanted to dismiss your theory. I'm not convinced, but I'll definitely keep it in mind when rereading because it doesn't seem impossible to me either. It certainly made me realise how little we know about LFs endgame and his motives working with the Tyrells. But it seems like you know the books much better than me anyway, so I guess I would have to really go into ASOS to further argue my position, and I kind of lack time for that now :(.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Gargarax said:

I hope you didn't read my last post as an attempt to just kill the discussion, or that I simply wanted to dismiss your theory. I'm not convinced, but I'll definitely keep it in mind when rereading because it doesn't seem impossible to me either. It certainly made me realise how little we know about LFs endgame and his motives working with the Tyrells. But it seems like you know the books much better than me anyway, so I guess I would have to really go into ASOS to further argue my position, and I kind of lack time for that now :(.

No bigee. Enjoy. But in your rereads, try and view each situation through each character's eyes, determining their motivations based on what they know, not what we as readers know.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I noticed on a re-read a seemingly throw-away thought Sansa has in the Godswood after the wedding....that she wished Shae were there to help her with the hairnet. 

This implies Shae put it in for her initially, giving her the opportunity to remove a stone....and Shae worked in the kitchens, knew the servers etc.  She was pissed at not being able to attend...then is found with Tywin the night before Tyrion is to be executed. 

Is there any possibility she was given the task of poisoning someone (most likely Tyrion)? Could LF have got the Kettleblacks to convince her in return for something? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Bonkers said:

I noticed on a re-read a seemingly throw-away thought Sansa has in the Godswood after the wedding....that she wished Shae were there to help her with the hairnet. 

This implies Shae put it in for her initially, giving her the opportunity to remove a stone....and Shae worked in the kitchens, knew the servers etc.  She was pissed at not being able to attend...then is found with Tywin the night before Tyrion is to be executed. 

Is there any possibility she was given the task of poisoning someone (most likely Tyrion)? Could LF have got the Kettleblacks to convince her in return for something? 

She was...

Quote

Shae was helping Sansa with her hair when they entered the bedchamber. Joy and grief, he thought when he beheld them there together. Laughter and tears. Sansa wore a gown of silvery satin trimmed in vair, with dagged sleeves that almost touched the floor, lined in soft purple felt. Shae had arranged her hair artfully in a delicate silver net winking with dark purple gemstones. Tyrion had never seen her look more lovely, yet she wore sorrow on those long satin sleeves. "Lady Sansa," he told her, "you shall be the most beautiful woman in the hall tonight."

I am of the opinion that both Shae and mayhaps Bronn were spies from Baelish from the beginning. I have others say Varys but Baelish makes more sense to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

She was...

I am of the opinion that both Shae and mayhaps Bronn were spies from Baelish from the beginning. I have others say Varys but Baelish makes more sense to me.

Yeh that makes sense to me if it were true that they were hired.  Varys keeps a close eye on Shae, but he also tells Tyrion he doesn't understand how he could be so stupid as to act like such a fool about her. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On Invalid Date at 11:38 PM, Lord Wraith said:

She was...

I am of the opinion that both Shae and mayhaps Bronn were spies from Baelish from the beginning. I have others say Varys but Baelish makes more sense to me.

 

On Invalid Date at 4:51 AM, Bonkers said:

Yeh that makes sense to me if it were true that they were hired.  Varys keeps a close eye on Shae, but he also tells Tyrion he doesn't understand how he could be so stupid as to act like such a fool about her. 

As I recall, Shae mentions how badly she wants to see the pigeon pie three times before the wedding: once in her manse during one of Tyrion's visits, once in the dragon room the morning of the wedding, and once as she is attending to Sansa just before the feast.

LF needs eyes and ears in the throne room, and I'll bet he's putting pressure on Shae to get herself in there somehow. Yeah, and probably Bronn too, although he's not in as good a position as Shae at this point.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now