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NFL Conference Championships: where the presumed MVP is the least accomplished QB


DanteGabriel

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On the thread title, it's interesting to think that we might have four Hall of Fame QB's on our four remaining teams.  How often does happen?  Brady is a sure-fire as one could be, and I have to think that Rodgers and Ben are pretty close to also being locks.  Ryan is the only question, but if he has a few more years like this one (and I think he's 29) he could be there as well.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Triskan said:

On the thread title, it's interesting to think that we might have four Hall of Fame QB's on our four remaining teams.  How often does happen?  Brady is a sure-fire as one could be, and I have to think that Rodgers and Ben are pretty close to also being locks.  Ryan is the only question, but if he has a few more years like this one (and I think he's 29) he could be there as well.

 

 

Ryan is 31 (which is still younger than I was thinking).  I doubt he'll be a HOFer.  For a large chunk of his career, he's been far from elite.  Without some serious improvement over the next few years, I'd put Romo ahead of him as far as individual QB ability over their respective careers. 

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2 minutes ago, JonSnow4President said:

Ryan is 31 (which is still younger than I was thinking).  I doubt he'll be a HOFer.  For a large chunk of his career, he's been far from elite.  Without some serious improvement over the next few years, I'd put Romo ahead of him as far as individual QB ability over their respective careers. 

Thanks.  I forget where I'd heard 29 but remember thinking it sounded surprisingly young when I heard it.   

Here's a question though:  how many QB's have one the MVP at least once and not made the Hall of Fame?  Ryan might win it this year and might have several peak years with Julio remaining. 

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1 hour ago, Triskan said:

Thanks.  I forget where I'd heard 29 but remember thinking it sounded surprisingly young when I heard it.   

Here's a question though:  how many QB's have one the MVP at least once and not made the Hall of Fame?  Ryan might win it this year and might have several peak years with Julio remaining. 

I'm not an NFL historian, and sadly only started watching football my junior year in college. Sadly, google brings up a ton of opinion pieces I don't particularly want to go into.  At least Plunkett.  

I'm more saying that because I think Ryan regresses to the mean like the few years he had (very recently) where people were talking about him needing to be replaced. I think his TD% is going to be about half of this season (in line with his career), his INT% is going to double from this season (in line with his career), and he's going to lose a full 2 yards per attempt at least (in line with his career).  I think he's going to show he's nothing but a stat hog QB.  

If he keeps up this season's pace though, he'd be an easy MVP candidate.

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7 hours ago, Triskan said:

Thanks.  I forget where I'd heard 29 but remember thinking it sounded surprisingly young when I heard it.   

Here's a question though:  how many QB's have one the MVP at least once and not made the Hall of Fame?  Ryan might win it this year and might have several peak years with Julio remaining. 

HOF normally compares what you did to your contemporaries, stats and or championships. If you look at Ryan, has he really separated himself from the other QB's playing right now? I would say no, not even close. Even this year Rodgers or Brady could easily win it, so is Ryan dominating his era? . Yeah he is putting up stats, but so are 10 other QB's each year in this offensive minded league.

13 QB's threw for over 4,000 yards this season, Brees was over 5000 again

9 QB's threw for 28 or more tds, 40 being the highest, Rodgers

8 full time QB's threw less than 10 Ints' this season, 2 being lowest, Brady

IMO, he would have to have at least three more seasons like this one or better and get a SB ring to be in the HOF, to me though, the other three are locks. You do bring up a good discussion of is this the best 4 QB's in conference championship weekend? Thinking someone will be looking back to see if there are better ones.

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1 hour ago, dbunting said:

Thinking someone will be looking back to see if there are better ones.

Someone (538? I don't see it there...) did an article on that already.  They found that this was the third best ever in terms of how good a season the four quarterbacks were having (not how good their careers were).  The best ever was 1992, with Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly.  That's four Hall of Famers, and all of them were having good to great years. 

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Ryan still has time to make a case for HOF but up to this point he's been difficult to tell apart from the likes of Matt Stafford. Compiled big stats, but never seemed to be able to elevate his game and become truly elite. It probably hurts him that he plays in Atlanta, sort of a black hole for national sporting publicity.

The thing is, Ryan's breakout year seems to have come when he had the perfect combination of coordinator, offensive line protection (Alex Mack stabilized their line) and skill talent (a freak receiver, a speed demon receiver, and two versatile backs). I think HOF quarterbacks need to be able to flourish and succeed without a perfect environment. They should be quarterbacks capable of putting a team on their back. Let's see how he does after his hot shit offensive coordinator leaves.

Is Phillip Rivers a Hall of Famer?

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Word is that even if the Packers make the Superb Owl, they will likely allow Brian Gutekunst to take the Niners GM job.  I like the prospect of Shanny the Younger and Gutekunst.  I was admittedly more team Wolf, but I think that's probably because his name is easier to pronounce!  :lol: 

1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said:

Is Phillip Rivers a Hall of Famer?

I heard an NFL commentator the other day that said the 2004 NFL draft produced three Hall of Famers at QB.  :dunno: 

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2 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Word is that even if the Packers make the Superb Owl, they will likely allow Brian Gutekunst to take the Niners GM job.  I like the prospect of Shanny the Younger and Gutekunst.  I was admittedly more team Wolf, but I think that's probably because his name is easier to pronounce!  :lol: 

I heard an NFL commentator the other day that said the 2004 NFL draft produced three Hall of Famers at QB.  :dunno: 

So Eli Manning, Ben Rothelisburger and Bradlee Van Pelt?

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4 minutes ago, Rhom said:

I heard an NFL commentator the other day that said the 2004 NFL draft produced three Hall of Famers at QB.  :dunno: 

Without a ring, I don't see how Rivers gets in the HoF.  He's been consistently good, but he's never won an MVP, never been an all-pro, and never won a super bowl.  He's no Dan Marino.

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8 minutes ago, sperry said:

Ryan is going to make the HOF barring career disrupting injuries. He's going to set every career passing record.

He'd have have to play seven or eight more years at this productivity level to get the yardage title. And he'd have to more than double his career TD numbers to get the TD passes title. He better start mainlining Brady's avocado ice cream now.

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20 minutes ago, sperry said:

Ryan is going to make the HOF barring career disrupting injuries. He's going to set every career passing record.

No, he's not.  Drew Brees has six seasons with higher yardage totals than Ryan's best season ever.  Aaron Rodgers is only 16 months older than him, and in spite of becoming a starter the same year (2008), Rodgers he has 57 more touchdowns and 42 fewer interceptions.  

EDIT:  the gap is worse if you count rushing touchdowns 25 for Rodgers, 5 for Ryan.

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3 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

He'd have have to play seven or eight more years at this productivity level to get the yardage title. And he'd have to more than double his career TD numbers to get the TD passes title. He better start mainlining Brady's avocado ice cream now.

 

Why would you think he wouldn't play 7 or 8 more years at current productivity levels? He's 31 right now.  We've seen that the 30s are basically a QBs prime now. Plus, Ryan has played his entire career in the protect the QB era.  Guys like Brady, Manning and Brees who have had this longetivity played their first few years while defensive linemen were still allowed to destroy the quarterback. I guarantee you Ryan has taken less big hits than those guys.

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8 minutes ago, sperry said:

 

Why would you think he wouldn't play 7 or 8 more years at current productivity levels? He's 31 right now.  We've seen that the 30s are basically a QBs prime now. Plus, Ryan has played his entire career in the protect the QB era.  Guys like Brady, Manning and Brees who have had this longetivity played their first few years while defensive linemen were still allowed to destroy the quarterback. I guarantee you Ryan has taken less big hits than those guys.

You're also envisioning eight years of consistency and productivity from the Falcons, which is cute. But go on, make the case for the TD record, given that he's thrown 240 in his first nine years and needs to get 540 to own the record outright... And assuming Brady or Brees don't move the number higher.

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21 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

You're also envisioning eight years of consistency and productivity from the Falcons, which is cute. But go on, make the case for the TD record, given that he's thrown 240 in his first nine years and needs to get 540 to own the record outright... And assuming Brady or Brees don't move the number higher.

 

He's just finished up a 6 year run where he's averaged about 4500 yards and 30 TDs. Tom Brady had his first super-elite season at age 30 then tore his ACL and missed his age 31 season. Ryan just had his first super elite season at age 31. And Ryan will be entering his age 32 season with about a 10,000 yard and 50 TD lead over Brady at that point in their respective careers.

 

Brees is the one that could put the bar out of reach, as they have no run game and no defense, so they're always behind and have to pass. If Brees has 3 more healthy seasons the yards record may get out of reach.

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6 minutes ago, sperry said:

 

He's just finished up a 6 year run where he's averaged about 4500 yards and 30 TDs. 

So if Ryan manages to average 30 TDs and 4500 yards for every season from here on out, he'll have the passing record when he's 39, and the TD record when he's 42. Assuming neither record has gone up (Brees is at 465 and could pass Manning in two years at similar production). Good luck with that, I guess.

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2 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

So if Ryan manages to average 30 TDs and 4500 yards for every season from here on out, he'll have the passing record when he's 39, and the TD record when he's 42. Assuming neither record has gone up (Brees is at 465 and could pass Manning in two years at similar production). Good luck with that, I guess.

Ryan setting the td mark also requires that Rodgers retires early too, since he's two seasons ahead of Ryan in touchdowns, in spite of both having started for nine seasons. 

The only major passing metric that is even a possibility for Ryan is yardage.  Touchdowns, y/a, qb wins, qb rating and career touchdown/int ratio are completely out of reach.

IF Ryan takes the yardage metric it will be because he's a classic compiler, truly the Emmitt Smith of quarterbacks.  But I really doubt he'll be sufficiently consistent or durable to pass Manning or Brees.

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

Ryan setting the td mark also requires that Rodgers retires early too, since he's two seasons ahead of Ryan in touchdowns, in spite of both having started for nine seasons. 

The only major passing metric that is even a possibility for Ryan is yardage.  Touchdowns, y/a, qb wins, qb rating and career touchdown/int ratio are completely out of reach.

IF Ryan takes the yardage metric it will be because he's a classic compiler, truly the Emmitt Smith of quarterbacks.  But I really doubt he'll be sufficiently consistent or durable to pass Manning or Brees.

 

That doesn't make sense.  Matt Ryan is going to win the MVP this year. That's not a "classic compiler."  Emmitt had a 5 year run as good as any RB has ever had, and then was decent but reliable for a long time after that. Ryan is at the top of his game right now and should be for the next 6 or 7 years at least. Eli Manning is a "compiler."

 

11 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

So if Ryan manages to average 30 TDs and 4500 yards for every season from here on out, he'll have the passing record when he's 39, and the TD record when he's 42. Assuming neither record has gone up (Brees is at 465 and could pass Manning in two years at similar production). Good luck with that, I guess.

That is if he holds serve. All of these guys have trended upwards in their 30s, and Ryan is ahead of all of them at this age, while taking less hits than all of them. I would expect his TDs per season to go up. Yards will probably hold. 

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