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NFL Conference Championships: where the presumed MVP is the least accomplished QB


DanteGabriel

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25 minutes ago, JonSnow4President said:

 

JJ has definitely gotten out of his own way.  He still says weird things, but as a whole it seems stronger heads have earned his respect and control on the football side of the business. 

It does seem that way the last few years.  Speaking of Jerry Jones saying weird things, I got a kick outta this (at approx. 4:50).  Yeah, Jerruh can keep trying to "circumcise that mosquito" as long as he leaves the personnel decisions to someone else:P

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30 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

He's in the running for sure. If nothing else, the two other owners you mentioned give me cause for hope. It seems they've managed to get out of their own way in the past few seasons.

True.  But, as much of a POS as Dan Snyder is, I can't see him firing Harbaugh....which in case anyone has forgotten in 4 years he went to the NFC championship 3x and 1 superbowl before 8/8 and the 49ers decided to lose with class. So, I have to put him as worse than Snyder.  

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23 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

True.  But, as much of a POS as Dan Snyder is, I can't see him firing Harbaugh....which in case anyone has forgotten in 4 years he went to the NFC championship 3x and 1 superbowl before 8/8 and the 49ers decided to lose with class. So, I have to put him as worse than Snyder.  

Yeah, that has to be the single worst decision made by an owner in at least a decade, if not more. 

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3 hours ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Yeah, that has to be the single worst decision made by an owner in at least a decade, if not more. 

It was fucking awful, a train-wreck in slow motion, and because of their fucking leak campaign, it was made much worse because they suckered so many fans into thinking it was a good thing/Harbaugh's fault. 

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1 hour ago, James Arryn said:

It was fucking awful, a train-wreck in slow motion, and because of their fucking leak campaign, it was made much worse because they suckered so many fans into thinking it was a good thing/Harbaugh's fault. 

Did they?  I don't know if any fans who think that was anything other than Jed/Baalke thinking they were the reason for success to that point and jettisoning Harbaugh.

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17 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Did they?  I don't know if any fans who think that was anything other than Jed/Baalke thinking they were the reason for success to that point and jettisoning Harbaugh.

It's funny that you'd say that. On the way home from work I was listening to Tom Tolbert (the drive time evening guy for KNBR, the flagship Niners station) This Niner fan called in with this extremely detailed and complicated scenario for how he believed that York got the hire he wanted in Paton at GM. Apparently there is some vague connection to him and Shanahan. Like he worked for Dan Quinn for 5 minutes back when they were both in Miami or some such bullshit. Oh yeah, and Josh McDaniels only wanted to work with Louis Riddick, so once the Niners wrote him off McDaniels dropped out. And both Eliot Wolf and Gutekunst opted to stay in Green Bay because they were offered better deals (better than being GMs?) Just a truck load of delusional bullshit.

 That said, I think most Niners fans can smell the bullshit.

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3 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

It's funny that you'd say that. On the way home from work I was listening to Tom Tolbert (the drive time evening guy for KNBR, the flagship Niners station) This Niner fan called in with this extremely detailed and complicated scenario for how he believed that York got the hire he wanted in Paton at GM. Apparently there is some vague connection to him and Shanahan. Like he worked for Dan Quinn for 5 minutes back when they were both in Miami or some such bullshit. Oh yeah, and Josh McDaniels only wanted to work with Louis Riddick, so once the Niners wrote him off McDaniels dropped out. And both Eliot Wolf and Gutekunst opted to stay in Green Bay because they were offered better deals (better than being GMs?) Just a truck load of delusional bullshit.

 That said, I think most Niners fans can smell the bullshit.

I'm still holding out hope that the Colts will swipe Shannahan and leave your boys out in the cold where they belong. 

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So 7-1 so far in the playoffs, with my only loss being Dallas losing to GB.  Which means I would be a moron to pick Atlanta over Green Bay. 

Atlanta over Green Bay:  Look, here is my rationale: Green Bay's defense is legitimately sketchy.  Their lack of Defensive backs is concerning. Dak was able t expose them as the game wore on and Matt Ryan is currently leading the best offense in the NFL.  He should be able to pick on the flailing GB secondary.  Now, don't get me wrong, Green Bay seems like they are doing everything right and Atlanta's defense is pretty bad.  Also, Ryan and Quinn have limited experience in the playoffs.  They may melt in the face of Rodgers and McCarthy who both have extensive playoff experience.  Also, intangibles- Green Bay believes they can do it all and they have no reason to doubt themselves.  Green Bay is magic.  But I think that it will run out.  At long last.  Atlanta 34 Green Bay 24

Pats over Steelers I'm not sold, though.  The Pats last week looked like a team 1) that had not won a hard game against a good opponent all season, 2) whose QB showed serious flaws, 3) that was missed their All-Pro Tight end, 4) that was ill prepared for the game and 5) was lucky to be playing Brock Osweiler.  The Pats were flat for 4 quarters and only won because their opponent was actively bad.  And this brings up the specter that teh Pats had the EASIEST schedule in the NFL and played such powerhouses as the Rams, 49'ers, Browns and Jets (x2).  

But ...

Look, put aside Antonio Brown and Tomlin's ham-fisted response; put aside the stomach bug flooding that locker room and forget the "distractions."  Put all that aside.  

Ben Rothlesberger is playing like shit.  He has 9 picks (v 8 TDs) in his last 6 games.  He is throwing sloppy, looks sluggish and is getting bailed out by tremendous play from Antonio Brown.  Bell is also a stud, but that defense has been blessed from playing pretty terrible offenses. (much like the Pats).  I just think that the Steelers are, in all honestly, a mediocre team playing well but can be upended by a good team paying well.  That D can be stopped; Rothelesberger can be discombobulated; Bell can be made irrelevant (ie: he can rush for 162 yards ... but the Steelers still loose).  That can happen.  

But I can also see the Pats throwing 2 picks, having 3 drives stall and losing by 8 in a gem they were never in.  

But ...

The Pats treated the win over Houston like a loss.  The Pats practiced, in pads, in the rain all week; everyone has been acting like the Pats are ready to spit nails Sunday.  Brady rarely puts two bad playoff weeks in a row.  At home.  After they covered a 16.5 point spread against the best defense that was left in the playoffs.  

I find it odd that the Pats could make it to the Superbowl, but I think it would be stranger f the Steelers did.  

Pats 28 Steelers 20

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FiveThirtyEight gives New England a 70% chance of beating Pittsburgh and Atlanta a 61% chance of beating Green Bay. I think that's overly optimistic for the home teams -- they are more likely to win than not, but not by that much.

New England's strength-of-schedule is remarkably useless as a predictive measure: they did have the easiest one in the league, but they also have the best record (3 wins more than any remaining team) and one of the two games they lost is a spurious data point (not only were they playing a third-string quarterback, but he was injured at the time).

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33 minutes ago, Altherion said:

FiveThirtyEight gives New England a 70% chance of beating Pittsburgh and Atlanta a 61% chance of beating Green Bay. I think that's overly optimistic for the home teams -- they are more likely to win than not, but not by that much.

New England's strength-of-schedule is remarkably useless as a predictive measure: they did have the easiest one in the league, but they also have the best record (3 wins more than any remaining team) and one of the two games they lost is a spurious data point (not only were they playing a third-string quarterback, but he was injured at the time).

I think 61% is about right for Atlanta. I mean, I would emphatically say it's not a 50-50 coin flip. Atlanta and GB at this point are basically very strongly offense oriented teams. Between the two, Green Bay definitely has the worse defense. Their secondary is demolished. Gunter covered Dez Bryant alone often throughout the divisional game and looked badly outmatched most of the time. And the Falcons have one of the best recievers in the league; Jones will shred him to pieces. The fact is, the Packers have managed to launch an incredible superbowl  bid against some of the best teams in the league by relying on the ability to outscore their opponents. But that's the Falcons's MO this year. 

Now, that's not to say 100% Falcons,  80% Falcons, or even 70% Falcons... I mean, we have the Rodgers factor to figure in. And these two teams did already face off and play a very solid,  one-point game. But Rodgers is kind of unpredictable. He's kept the insane level of play going for at least 6 games, but I don't think you can depend on it to last. Rodgers has been uniquely fantastic--maybe you'd call it "amazing"--Matt Ryan has been consistently fantastic. So yeah, 61 seems a reasonable number to me. 

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8 hours ago, Altherion said:

FiveThirtyEight gives New England a 70% chance of beating Pittsburgh and Atlanta a 61% chance of beating Green Bay. I think that's overly optimistic for the home teams -- they are more likely to win than not, but not by that much.

New England's strength-of-schedule is remarkably useless as a predictive measure: they did have the easiest one in the league, but they also have the best record (3 wins more than any remaining team) and one of the two games they lost is a spurious data point (not only were they playing a third-string quarterback, but he was injured at the time).

So, Five-Thirty-Eight's algorithm isn't perfect.  It doesn't take into consideration various factors like changes in the team's make-up, injuries, etc.  It also starts out by assigning the team a value based on ... well... things.  So, as far as 538 is concerned, it doesn't "know" that Gronk is out or that Bennett is banged up.  Case-in-Point, in the link you provided, 538 predicted that Oakland would beat Houston (granted only 54 v. 46) because it didn't "know" Carr was out.   Now, with that said I also think the Pats should win, but there are clearly scenarios where Pitt wins and one of them is the Pats D is actually pretty bad and we just don't know it because the Jets, 49'ers, Rams and Browns are worse.  

I also look at Cortana for picks and they also have the Pats winning 70-30.  But Cortana is quick to point out that it ALSO picked KC and Dallas to win (as did 538) and we saw how that went.  

Also, I am contractually obligated to point out that 538 predicted that Hillary would defeat Trump and its polls-plus model had it at 64-36 close to the time of the election.  I fucking hate how I view the world.  

So, I'm rooting for the Pats and you should to if you care about Democracy. 

Because New England is the only "blue" team left.

I know, I'm reaching.  

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12 hours ago, Rockroi said:

So 7-1 so far in the playoffs, with my only loss being Dallas losing to GB.  Which means I would be a moron to pick Atlanta over Green Bay. 

Atlanta over Green Bay:  Look, here is my rationale: Green Bay's defense is legitimately sketchy.  Their lack of Defensive backs is concerning. Dak was able t expose them as the game wore on and Matt Ryan is currently leading the best offense in the NFL.  He should be able to pick on the flailing GB secondary.  Now, don't get me wrong, Green Bay seems like they are doing everything right and Atlanta's defense is pretty bad.  Also, Ryan and Quinn have limited experience in the playoffs.  They may melt in the face of Rodgers and McCarthy who both have extensive playoff experience.  Also, intangibles- Green Bay believes they can do it all and they have no reason to doubt themselves.  Green Bay is magic.  But I think that it will run out.  At long last.  Atlanta 34 Green Bay 24

Pats over Steelers I'm not sold, though.  The Pats last week looked like a team 1) that had not won a hard game against a good opponent all season, 2) whose QB showed serious flaws, 3) that was missed their All-Pro Tight end, 4) that was ill prepared for the game and 5) was lucky to be playing Brock Osweiler.  The Pats were flat for 4 quarters and only won because their opponent was actively bad.  And this brings up the specter that teh Pats had the EASIEST schedule in the NFL and played such powerhouses as the Rams, 49'ers, Browns and Jets (x2).  

But ...

Look, put aside Antonio Brown and Tomlin's ham-fisted response; put aside the stomach bug flooding that locker room and forget the "distractions."  Put all that aside.  

Ben Rothlesberger is playing like shit.  He has 9 picks (v 8 TDs) in his last 6 games.  He is throwing sloppy, looks sluggish and is getting bailed out by tremendous play from Antonio Brown.  Bell is also a stud, but that defense has been blessed from playing pretty terrible offenses. (much like the Pats).  I just think that the Steelers are, in all honestly, a mediocre team playing well but can be upended by a good team paying well.  That D can be stopped; Rothelesberger can be discombobulated; Bell can be made irrelevant (ie: he can rush for 162 yards ... but the Steelers still loose).  That can happen.  

But I can also see the Pats throwing 2 picks, having 3 drives stall and losing by 8 in a gem they were never in.  

But ...

The Pats treated the win over Houston like a loss.  The Pats practiced, in pads, in the rain all week; everyone has been acting like the Pats are ready to spit nails Sunday.  Brady rarely puts two bad playoff weeks in a row.  At home.  After they covered a 16.5 point spread against the best defense that was left in the playoffs.  

I find it odd that the Pats could make it to the Superbowl, but I think it would be stranger f the Steelers did.  

Pats 28 Steelers 20

I have no problem with what Mike Tomlin said in the locker room after the game last week. That's kinda what coaches do, and I respect that he apologized and said he has to be a better man then what was on tape. Not only as a professional but also for his kids. 

It's interesting to hear you say how the Pats have prepared. I don't like hearing that. Although the local stations have been acting like Roethlisberger and some core of the rest of the team view this game as the biggest of their careers. 

In the end I think the Pats are better. The Steelers D have been pretty good over this nine game win streak, but I don't think they will be enough. Part of me thinks it will be a blowout win for New England. No part of me thinks the Steelers can win, except my dreams. I'm not even sure it will be very close. My final score prediction is Pats 31-10. 

 

 

I think GB beats Atlanta in a shootout 42-38. Rodgers will not be stopped, but I don't think it will come down to a last second TD for the win. I think Atlanta will fail to score a TD, down four, as time expires. 

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Just now, Reny of Storms End said:

I have no problem with what Mike Tomlin said in the locker room after the game last week. That's kinda what coaches do, and I respect that he apologized and said he has to be a better man then what was on tape. Not only as a professional but also for his kids. 

It's interesting to hear you say how the Pats have prepared. I don't like hearing that. Although the local stations have been acting like Roethlisberger and some core of the rest of the team view this game as the biggest of their careers. 

In the end I think the Pats are better. The Steelers D have been pretty good over this nine game win streak, but I don't think they will be enough. Part of me thinks it will be a blowout win for New England. No part of me thinks the Steelers can win, except my dreams. I'm not even sure it will be very close. My final score prediction is Pats 31-10. 

I don't have a problem with what Tomlin said in the locker room; all coaches do that.  MY problem with what Brown did is that after winning at KC and having to now focus on going to Gillette to play the Pats, Antonio Brown thinks, "Hey, even though my coach is talking right now and even though New England is on the horizon and even though the locker room is private LET ME TURN ON MY PHONE AND LIVE STREAM ALL THIS!  

Yeah... that's not a great mind-set to have. 

I think this group of Steelers may have some pressure on them- Brown, Bell etc may be looking at this as "We need to prove we are legit" and its seeing how they handle that pressure.  I don't know, but I think if I had to guess I think that the Steelers have more pressure on them than the Pats.  

I think that there is one area that the Steelers may have some difficulty- adapting.  I don't know if Tomlin's coaching ability is good at adapting a game plan that can override what Belichick does.  If the Steelers have a problem during the game, it may not be curable immediately and, therefore, the Pats could exploit it.  Maybe.

I just think the Steelers are always a tough out and they will show that again tomorrow.  

 

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Just now, Rockroi said:

I don't have a problem with what Tomlin said in the locker room; all coaches do that.  MY problem with what Brown did is that after winning at KC and having to now focus on going to Gillette to play the Pats, Antonio Brown thinks, "Hey, even though my coach is talking right now and even though New England is on the horizon and even though the locker room is private LET ME TURN ON MY PHONE AND LIVE STREAM ALL THIS!  

Yeah... that's not a great mind-set to have. 

I think this group of Steelers may have some pressure on them- Brown, Bell etc may be looking at this as "We need to prove we are legit" and its seeing how they handle that pressure.  I don't know, but I think if I had to guess I think that the Steelers have more pressure on them than the Pats.  

I think that there is one area that the Steelers may have some difficulty- adapting.  I don't know if Tomlin's coaching ability is good at adapting a game plan that can override what Belichick does.  If the Steelers have a problem during the game, it may not be curable immediately and, therefore, the Pats could exploit it.  Maybe.

I just think the Steelers are always a tough out and they will show that again tomorrow.  

 

Totally agree with your assessment of Brown's actions, and on the lack of adaptability of Tomlin.

I hoping for an exciting game, and that both teams play well. Just knowing the recent history of Pats-Pitt though makes me wary of a blow-out. 

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3 hours ago, Rockroi said:

Because New England is the only "blue" team left.

I know, I'm reaching.  

You're not reaching, you're Trumping. Bigly.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/tom-brady-ducks-question-when-asked-about-phone-call-to-donald-trump/

 

I think this is the angle you're looking for...

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/were-all-winners-if-patriots-win-super-bowl-except-for-nfls-biggest-heel/

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