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If Stannis took the blackwater would the war be over?


Stormking902

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Lets say Stannis takes Kinglanding and the Red keep but the Lannister, Tyrell alliance still happens but they are about 5 days to late to save the city. We know Stannis has many hostages Including the king himself and Cercei, Tyrion etc but Tommon is still safe at this moment because he is not in the city. Does Tywin promise the Tyrells Tommon and continue the war or does he bend the knee to Stannis? And if the war does continue what can Stannis possibly do with lets say 15k men against the full might of the West and Reach? Is he still pretty much screwed?

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Most likely Twyin will offer Tommen to replace Joff and he and the Tyrells will settle down to besiege the city, there's no food and Stannis holds a city of 500,000 people that has just suffered through a storm with men of dubious loyalty. Renly's supply train was at Bitterbridge so it's doubtful he could even feed his army much beyond their march to King's Landing. He'll have to withdraw or eventually his new men will probably turn on him if he's too stubborn to do so. In this scenario the Tyrells will be in an even stronger bargaining position as well and appear that much more benevolent in bringing the Iron Throne back from the brink of defeat so the deal isn't really worse for them either, just a little more precarious since they'll have to wait longer for Tommen to get Marg with child but that's still better than accepting Stannis as king. 

If Stannis withdraws with a good bunch of men there's always the option to go campaign somewhere else and loot and plunder to finance it while he attempts to gather more support and capture castles but against the combined might of Lannister and Tyrell this probably wouldn't be too fruitful, he doesn't inspire that much love and the power of that union will be enough to sway most Southern Lords to the side of the Iron Throne when compared to the strength Stannis commands, if he still commands such after withdrawing. 
 

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17 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

Most likely Twyin will offer Tommen to replace Joff and he and the Tyrells will settle down to besiege the city, there's no food and Stannis holds a city of 500,000 people that has just suffered through a storm with men of dubious loyalty. Renly's supply train was at Bitterbridge so it's doubtful he could even feed his army much beyond their march to King's Landing. He'll have to withdraw or eventually his new men will probably turn on him if he's too stubborn to do so. In this scenario the Tyrells will be in an even stronger bargaining position as well and appear that much more benevolent in bringing the Iron Throne back from the brink of defeat so the deal isn't really worse for them either, just a little more precarious since they'll have to wait longer for Tommen to get Marg with child but that's still better than accepting Stannis as king. 

If Stannis withdraws with a good bunch of men there's always the option to go campaign somewhere else and loot and plunder to finance it while he attempts to gather more support and capture castles but against the combined might of Lannister and Tyrell this probably wouldn't be too fruitful, he doesn't inspire that much love and the power of that union will be enough to sway most Southern Lords to the side of the Iron Throne when compared to the strength Stannis commands, if he still commands such after withdrawing. 
 

Pretty much this. If Stannis had, say, taken the chain towers and destroyed them, he could be resupplied by sea or even evacuate after the Tyrells/Lannisters arrived. But he did not. He has 5 days before the Tyrells and Lannisters arrive. His best move is to sack the city/treasury, take the IT, and hostages and move back to SE or DS. He still wants to have his symbol of legitimacy and the hostages will give him leverage. I doubt his army would bother sticking around long as he can't feed them on DS and can't move most of them by ship.

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The X factor in this scenario is Robb, the North, & the Riverlands. The RW betrayal may have been in motion by this point but it doesn't happen if Tywin had to deal with Stannis in KL so it gives Robb a chance to make a move. If Stannis is besieged in KL by the Lannisters/Tyrells, Robb could to KL too and the Lannisters/Tyrells would be caught between two armies. Of course Robb would have to choose between taking back the North from the IB & going to KL at this point. And there's the issue of Stannis working with Robb while he is the king in the north. But Robb could still play a part that could result in defeating the Lannisters, getting Sansa back, & putting Stannis on the IT as Ned originally wanted.

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19 minutes ago, Maxxine said:

The X factor in this scenario is Robb, the North, & the Riverlands. The RW betrayal may have been in motion by this point but it doesn't happen if Tywin had to deal with Stannis in KL so it gives Robb a chance to make a move. If Stannis is besieged in KL by the Lannisters/Tyrells, Robb could to KL too and the Lannisters/Tyrells would be caught between two armies. Of course Robb would have to choose between taking back the North from the IB & going to KL at this point. And there's the issue of Stannis working with Robb while he is the king in the north. But Robb could still play a part that could result in defeating the Lannisters, getting Sansa back, & putting Stannis on the IT as Ned originally wanted.

Robb wouldn't have enough men to take on Tywin's army, let alone a combined army of 50K. It would be suicide.

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2 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

Robb's scraping the bottom of the barrel for Freys to liberate the North, he's not in a position to relieve King's Landing from 70,000 ish men. 

 

Well we don't know that. We know that Lord Frey sent a contingent North that was scraping the bottom of the barrel but that was also with 2000 men at RR, lord knows how many at the crossings, and quite a few down at Darry. Frey might well have sent the bottom of the barrel but we'd seen ~4400 Freys (1000 knights, 3000 foot, 400 Crossing garrison) in the Wo5K. Sending that last column north to die is a sight different than re-allying yourself with your former liege lord and ally to win back a route north that doesn't require your men to stay.

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Stannis is screwed if the Lannisters and Tyrells are united. He could probably gain the support of the North/Riverlands if he was to return Sansa + Ice. The biggest problem is that while he could possibly get Dorne on his side I doubt it. 

Stannis' would be best to just take hostages and head North or to the Vale. By going to the Vale he could force Lyssa Arryn's hand especially if he was to reveal that Jon Arryn was killed because he knew that Joffery, Tommen, and Myrcella were bastards born of Incest. If he was to reveal this in front of all the Lords of the Vale this would get them riled up. 

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The deciding factor would be the Reach infantry. Most of the Reach chivalry went over to Stannis when Renly died, and the foot was only kept loyal because Randyll seized the supplies, started killing those most likely to swap sides and jailed Stannis' envoys. In this scenario, with the Lannisters losing KL along with most of the royal family, I imagine much of that infantry would (at least) desert, if not jump ship.

If not, he still holds KL, has a sizable, high quality army, 60-70 ships, as well as control of the Stormlands + Dragonstone. Robb's forces wouldn't be as demoralized, either. 

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An interesting scenario.

War would break out in the south, I think. Here Stannis controls the Stormlands, and has the support of some Reach lords as well. If he can slip his lords back to thier holdings, Stannis can probably do a decent amount to disrupt the Lannister-Tyrell alliance.

I can't actually see Stannis taking Jofferey and Ceresi hostage. One is a rival claimant to the IT, and the other has commited high treason. Stannis will torture Ceresi for a confession for her crimes, have it witnessed by as many lords as he can, and chop off her head and mount it on the gate. Jofferey has commited no crimes, but is a bastard born of incest who could be used against him. Off with his head.

Tyrion and the other nobility may be taken hostage, forced to swear fealty or be killed. I could see Stannis moving Tyrion to DS, as a hostage against Tywin. Most of the others would be killed or bend the knee.

Sansa will possibly be held as a hostage to ensure Robb bends the knee, although Stannis did promise to send Cat's daughters back to her, and Stannis will keep his word. Likely he would hold her until the fighting died down, though.

The Red wedding would possibly still happen :( Judging from the timelines, Robb is possibly already married by this point, and Tywin wants to tie up the North so they can't attack him in the rear. On the other hand, without a garuntee of being on the winnning side, Roose and Walder may not be tempted so easily.

The Vale and Dorne would maintain thier neutrality.

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7 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

Lets say Stannis takes Kinglanding and the Red keep but the Lannister, Tyrell alliance still happens but they are about 5 days to late to save the city. We know Stannis has many hostages Including the king himself and Cercei, Tyrion etc but Tommon is still safe at this moment because he is not in the city. Does Tywin promise the Tyrells Tommon and continue the war or does he bend the knee to Stannis? And if the war does continue what can Stannis possibly do with lets say 15k men against the full might of the West and Reach? Is he still pretty much screwed?

something would happen to drive stannis from KL so he would go north as the story intended. It could be varys letting the tyrells in, or it could be a straight up ttle that stannis loses.

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1 hour ago, The Drunkard said:

The deciding factor would be the Reach infantry. Most of the Reach chivalry went over to Stannis when Renly died, and the foot was only kept loyal because Randyll seized the supplies, started killing those most likely to swap sides and jailed Stannis' envoys. In this scenario, with the Lannisters losing KL along with most of the royal family, I imagine much of that infantry would (at least) desert, if not jump ship.

If not, he still holds KL, has a sizable, high quality army, 60-70 ships, as well as control of the Stormlands + Dragonstone. Robb's forces wouldn't be as demoralized, either. 

The ships will be irrelevant unless he destroys the chain towers. They cannot land directly at the docks, which no longer exist, and they cannot ferry supplies to him north of the city after Tywin and the Tyrells come. At best he's stuck in a starving city of 500K without a viable means of retreating once that happens.

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7 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

Well we don't know that. We know that Lord Frey sent a contingent North that was scraping the bottom of the barrel but that was also with 2000 men at RR, lord knows how many at the crossings, and quite a few down at Darry. Frey might well have sent the bottom of the barrel but we'd seen ~4400 Freys (1000 knights, 3000 foot, 400 Crossing garrison) in the Wo5K. Sending that last column north to die is a sight different than re-allying yourself with your former liege lord and ally to win back a route north that doesn't require your men to stay.


I was being a bit hyperbolic, really I just meant he's not in much of a position to rush in against that many enemies. 

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2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The ships will be irrelevant unless he destroys the chain towers. They cannot land directly at the docks, which no longer exist, and they cannot ferry supplies to him north of the city after Tywin and the Tyrells come. At best he's stuck in a starving city of 500K without a viable means of retreating once that happens.

They can land on the northern bank of the Blackwater, where they were dropping off his soldiers. 

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7 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

They can land on the northern bank of the Blackwater, where they were dropping off his soldiers. 

Sure could. I bet they'd love to do that with Tywin's army encamped on the north bank. Nothing to regret about landing within ballista, catapault, or trebuchet distance of that army. No sirree. Even once they waltz past the siege weapons, they will be allowed to slowly unload the supplies and haul them to KL.

FOOLPROOF!

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1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Sure could. I bet they'd love to do that with Tywin's army encamped on the north bank. Nothing to regret about landing within ballista, catapault, or trebuchet distance of that army. No sirree. Even once they waltz past the siege weapons, they will be allowed to slowly unload the supplies and haul them to KL.

FOOLPROOF!

You understand the Blackwater is to the south of King's Landing, yes? Landing on the northern bank puts them right against the city walls - somewhere Tywin couldn't establish a siege line, because his men would be under constant arrow-fire and in constant danger from sorties.

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7 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

You understand the Blackwater is to the south of King's Landing, yes? Landing on the northern bank puts them right against the city walls - somewhere Tywin couldn't establish a siege line, because his men would be under constant arrow-fire and in constant danger from sorties.

I do. If you think that ships would make it to the broken docks and successfully unload their cargo, which they don't have and don't have the money to get, I have a bridge in Arizona I'd like to sell you. You've clearly seen the fan-drawn map of KL and the gates. Tell me how the ships get to offload their cargo successfully, assuming they find the funding for them or even a f*cking source.

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