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If Stannis took the blackwater would the war be over?


Stormking902

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1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I do. If you think that ships would make it to the broken docks and successfully unload their cargo, which they don't have and don't have the money to get, I have a bridge in Arizona I'd like to sell you. You've clearly seen the fan-drawn map of KL and the gates. Tell me how the ships get to offload their cargo successfully, assuming they find the funding for them or even a f*cking source.

It would be easy. In this scenario Stannis takes KL in less than a day, and he now has 5 days in which to take the winch towers (assuming they don't immediately surrender). He now has an open path to his holdings at Dragonstone and Storm's End, the holdings of all his vassals in the Narrow Sea and throughout the Stormlands, and the merchant cities in Essos. He has 60-70 ships (30 from Saan, 30-40 that survived the wildfire) to convey goods from those places back to King's Landing (in addition to whatever other ships that may be commandeered). Now, since Tyrion was able to deploy his fleet without it being in any significant danger from Stannis' men on the shoreline, we know those 60-70 ships could navigate the river without being in excessive danger from any forces that may be to the south (it was wide enough to allow for twenty warships to row abreast of each other, at the least), and they would land at the same places they were landing throughout the battle. As to funding - he, again, has access to the wealth of his lands and those of his vassals, and credit, which we know he makes use of. 

This could continue for however long it takes for the Redwyne fleet to arrive, assuming 1) Tywin and co. even bother laying siege rather than trying a strategy that doesn't leave them open to Robb, 2) the Reach infantry forces don't wilt away to join their lords at King's Landing, 3) Stannis doesn't choose to march north or south or w/e in some other plan.

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Just now, The Drunkard said:

It would be easy. In this scenario Stannis takes KL in less than a day, and he now has 5 days in which to take the winch towers (assuming they don't immediately surrender). He now has an open path to his holdings at Dragonstone and Storm's End, the holdings of all his vassals in the Narrow Sea and throughout the Stormlands, and the merchant cities in Essos. He has 60-70 ships (30 from Saan, 30-40 that survived the wildfire) to convey goods from those places back to King's Landing (in addition to whatever other ships that may be commandeered). Now, since Tyrion was able to deploy his fleet without it being in any significant danger from Stannis' men on the shoreline, we know those 60-70 ships could navigate the river without being in excessive danger from any forces that may be to the south (it was wide enough to allow for twenty warships to row abreast of each other, at the least), and they would land at the same places they were landing throughout the battle. As to funding - he, again, has access to the wealth of his lands and those of his vassals, and credit, which we know he makes use of. 

This could continue for however long it takes for the Redwyne fleet to arrive, assuming 1) Tywin and co. even bother laying siege rather than trying a strategy that doesn't leave them open to Robb, 2) the Reach infantry forces don't wilt away to join their lords at King's Landing, 3) Stannis doesn't choose to march north or south or w/e in some other plan.

Stannis' men hadn't made any siege weapons. They lacked the expertise to do so. We know Tywin's army and Mace's army have that expertise. They only used archers on the south bank. 

Stannis' wealth is pretty much nil as all his sellswords were already owed money from KL. Now he has zilch to pay for food. His lands were poor AF. That's only underlined by Mace's reaction to 

Stannis' 20K men are in a city of 500K that is already starving, and the closest sources of food are under the control of the crown. The men in the city cannot sortie or chevauchee for resources as the enemies are closing in. DS is 3 days away. A trip to the free cities is weeks there and back. He cannot feed his men. He can maybe retreat with half of his forces while the others starve to death or die putting down a city wide rebellion or desert.

If he does anything but conquer, pillage, and retreat, he's asking for a death by starvation.

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I think Stannis would win and go on to unite Westeros.

If Stannis took King's Landing 5 days before the Lannister/Tyrell Host arrived he would be in a very good position.

He would have around 65 ships and 18,000 soldiers left up against the 65,000 strong Lannister/Tyrell Army.

What is very important to recognize is that 85% of the Reach nobility and 66% of the Stormlands nobility is with Stannis and their levies are with Tywin and Mace. That would mean that around 75% of the infantry on Tywin and Mace's side is actually first and foremost sworn to their lords who are on Stannis side. Where would their loyalties be? To the king of Westeros and their lords i would think, not the incompetent and uninspiring Mace Tyrell.

Stannis army would have acces to supplies from the sea and he would have time to repair the gates and he would have many hostages. The Tyrell Lannister army wouldnt be able to take it by force and to starve it out the Redwyne fleet would have to come around and blockade. All the while Robb Stark is pillaging the Westerlands. Dorne would probably attack Highgarden aswell if Stannis sent him ravens and asked him to.

I bet you that Stannis would just be able to sally out and crush them in a battle and have his lord's levies turn on Mace and Tywin.

Robb Stark knows that Stannis is a good man and he knows his father died because he thought that Stannis should be king. Stannis and Robb would have no problem striking a deal. By this time all of Westeros minus perhaps the Vale would be united under Stannis and Stannis would start to prepare Westeros for the Others.

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13 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Stannis' men hadn't made any siege weapons. They lacked the expertise to do so. We know Tywin's army and Mace's army have that expertise. They only used archers on the south bank. 

Stannis' wealth is pretty much nil as all his sellswords were already owed money from KL. Now he has zilch to pay for food. His lands were poor AF. That's only underlined by Mace's reaction to 

Stannis' 20K men are in a city of 500K that is already starving, and the closest sources of food are under the control of the crown. The men in the city cannot sortie or chevauchee for resources as the enemies are closing in. DS is 3 days away. A trip to the free cities is weeks there and back. He cannot feed his men. He can maybe retreat with half of his forces while the others starve to death or die putting down a city wide rebellion or desert.

If he does anything but conquer, pillage, and retreat, he's asking for a death by starvation.

Dude Stannis has 15,000 cavalry and King's Landing has 7 gates. He would absoloutly crush them in a night attack i would say. Also half the infantry would turn on Mace and Tywin.

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11 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Stannis' men hadn't made any siege weapons. They lacked the expertise to do so. We know Tywin's army and Mace's army have that expertise. They only used archers on the south bank. 

Stannis' wealth is pretty much nil as all his sellswords were already owed money from KL. Now he has zilch to pay for food. His lands were poor AF. That's only underlined by Mace's reaction to 

Stannis' 20K men are in a city of 500K that is already starving, and the closest sources of food are under the control of the crown. The men in the city cannot sortie or chevauchee for resources as the enemies are closing in. DS is 3 days away. A trip to the free cities is weeks there and back. He cannot feed his men. He can maybe retreat with half of his forces while the others starve to death or die putting down a city wide rebellion or desert.

If he does anything but conquer, pillage, and retreat, he's asking for a death by starvation.

I find it unlikely that among Stannis' twenty thousand men - all the nobles from the Stormlands and many from the Reach, his initial army and sellswords gathered at Dragonstone, and the marines in the royal fleet - that no one had the knowledge to construct siege weapons. If there's a source, so be it, but I am skeptical. His cash-on-hand may be nil (I doubt it, his situation in ASOS is different to his situation here), but he will have access to the Narrow Sea and the Stormlands for many weeks (even months?) and credit is a thing that exists, so funds aren't a problem. Food would be tight, but the city could last a week. He could begin to funnel food in within a few days, and within weeks he would have shipments coming in from Essos.

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40 minutes ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

Dude Stannis has 15,000 cavalry and King's Landing has 7 gates. He would absoloutly crush them in a night attack i would say. Also half the infantry would turn on Mace and Tywin.

Uh I'm not even sure what to say or do with this 

 

37 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

I find it unlikely that among Stannis' twenty thousand men - all the nobles from the Stormlands and many from the Reach, his initial army and sellswords gathered at Dragonstone, and the marines in the royal fleet - that no one had the knowledge to construct siege weapons. If there's a source, so be it, but I am skeptical. His cash-on-hand may be nil (I doubt it, his situation in ASOS is different to his situation here), but he will have access to the Narrow Sea and the Stormlands for many weeks (even months?) and credit is a thing that exists, so funds aren't a problem. Food would be tight, but the city could last a week. He could begin to funnel food in within a few days, and within weeks he would have shipments coming in from Essos.

Stannis' men may well have the knowledge to build them. How many did they build? How many carpenters did they bring? None that I can see. He did at SE but not at KL. His cash-on-hand situation is nil. Ask Sallador Saan. He is waiting for his money after the Blackwater. Even if KL does get sacked, how much gold left is there? Basically none, as Tyrion tells us. He doesn't know where to find the gold for 4400 GCs. But yeah lets keep supplying a starving city by sea with money we don't have from sources that are a month's roundtrip voyage from. 

You keep saying he can get the food in days. Where? The SL cannot muster that kind of supply in days, and they have no good harbors to load ships from. At best we're looking at 3-4 weeks to get food back to KL. Stannis isn't going to strip SE of supplies. The garrison is only 200 men and he absolutely wants to hold it indefinitely against his enemies. He was in the RR siege. He knows what it's like to starve under siege.

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5 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Uh I'm not even sure what to say or do with this 

 

Stannis' men may well have the knowledge to build them. How many did they build? How many carpenters did they bring? None that I can see. He did at SE but not at KL. His cash-on-hand situation is nil. Ask Sallador Saan. He is waiting for his money after the Blackwater. Even if KL does get sacked, how much gold left is there? Basically none, as Tyrion tells us. He doesn't know where to find the gold for 4400 GCs. But yeah lets keep supplying a starving city by sea with money we don't have from sources that are a month's roundtrip voyage from. 

You keep saying he can get the food in days. Where? The SL cannot muster that kind of supply in days, and they have no good harbors to load ships from. At best we're looking at 3-4 weeks to get food back to KL. Stannis isn't going to strip SE of supplies. The garrison is only 200 men and he absolutely wants to hold it indefinitely against his enemies. He was in the RR siege. He knows what it's like to starve under siege.

Dude why don't you think Stannis could beat Tywin and Mace in battle?

 

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It's unlikely that Stannis could win agains't the Lannister-Tyrell host in direct battle, but he could've win through cunning.

He could've tortured Cersei and obliged her to confess her crimes in front of all lords. I doubt Mace Tyrell would've let Margaery marry a Lannister bastard.

Arranging a marriage between Shireen and one of Mace sons would help as well. Having someone with Tyrell as surname in the throne is better than someone whose mother is a Tyrell.

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1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Other than the crushing numerical superiority, lack of supply lines, starving populace, and faint line of retreat?

I really can't say I suppose.

Yes but close to 50,000 of Mace Tyrell's Infantry are actually the levies of the knights and lords Stannis has in his army. And Stannis is the new King. It would make sense for them to be loyal to Stannis if there is battle. No?

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Just now, Coolbeard the Exile said:

Yes but close to 50,000 of Mace Tyrell's Infantry are actually the levies of the knights and lords Stannis has in his army. And Stannis is the new King. It would make sense for them to be loyal to Stannis if there is battle. No?

Sure Stannis is the new king. That's why everyone is flocking to his banners, his army never deserts to the guys he fights at BW, he's on the IT, and everyone else has laid down arms. I can't tell if you're being serious or not.

That's on top of you not knowing if that 50K figure is even remotely close to being true. Based on the Florent's strength and the lordly captives and casualties, it doesn't look like it would come close to being 50k. I might give you 20K.

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42 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Sure Stannis is the new king. That's why everyone is flocking to his banners, his army never deserts to the guys he fights at BW, he's on the IT, and everyone else has laid down arms. I can't tell if you're being serious or not.

That's on top of you not knowing if that 50K figure is even remotely close to being true. Based on the Florent's strength and the lordly captives and casualties, it doesn't look like it would come close to being 50k. I might give you 20K.

Well it is stated that 80% of Renly's knights joined Stannis after he died and so it is fair to assume that the knight's levies also provide around 80 % of Renly's infantry.

Don't you agree?

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8 minutes ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

Well it is stated that 80% of Renly's knights joined Stannis after he died and so it is fair to assume that the knight's levies also provide around 80 % of Renly's infantry.

Don't you agree?

No. Knights are very different than lords. Look at who was captured/killed at BW and who remains with Stannis. Feel free to list them out and what you assume their strength would be. I'm eager to read it.

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In such a situation (Stannis has taken KL with Cersei, Joffrey, Tyrion Lannister as hostages) the answer to the question, if Stannis could hold this position would in my opinion depend on these things:

  • does Stannis have now more an better arguments to push his claim to the throne
    • confession by Cersei
    • proof of Lannister incest by documents left by Ned Stark/Jon Arryn
    • witnesses to the official reading of Robert Baratheon's last will by Barristan Selmy
    • help by Varys and/or Littlefinger who both know the truth
  • how strong is the alliance between Tyrell's and Lannisters
    • Lannisters are not well loved
    • if the Tyrells switched side at this moment they could be sure to be on the winning side
  • communication with Robb Stark
    • if Stannis would pardon Robb (from his point of view for Robb's treasoning act declaring himself King of the North) 
    • thus win Robb for an alliance
    • Robb would be a huge threat to the Westerlands while Tywin was bound to stay close to KL
  • getting contact to Dorne promising them revenge for the Lannister crimes if they move North (in the back of the Lannister/Tyrell army)

If Stannis would succeed in only two of the above mentioned four points, I think he would win the war.

 

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2 hours ago, The Hoare said:

It's unlikely that Stannis could win agains't the Lannister-Tyrell host in direct battle, but he could've win through cunning.

 

He could've tortured Cersei and obliged her to confess her crimes in front of all lords. I doubt Mace Tyrell would've let Margaery marry a Lannister bastard.

 

Arranging a marriage between Shireen and one of Mace sons would help as well. Having someone with Tyrell as surname in the throne is better than someone whose mother is a Tyrell.

And Tywin could just say Stannis tortured her to the point she would confess to anything, regardless of truth. As for the second part, it just isn't Stannis. He's too high and mighty ask for someone else's help to take what's "his", just look at his reaction to the prospect of marrying Shireen to Sweetrobin.

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2 hours ago, Boarsbane said:

And Tywin could just say Stannis tortured her to the point she would confess to anything, regardless of truth. As for the second part, it just isn't Stannis. He's too high and mighty ask for someone else's help to take what's "his", just look at his reaction to the prospect of marrying Shireen to Sweetrobin.

Westeros is a medieval continent, and torture is a legit way to extract confessions. See what Cersei did to Blue Bard and how the Faith of the Seven have their confessions.

 

His reaction about Shireen marrying Sweetrobin was because the boy was a sick weakling. The Tyrells are better people so to speak.

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27 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

Westeros is a medieval continent, and torture is a legit way to extract confessions. See what Cersei did to Blue Bard and how the Faith of the Seven have their confessions.

Not to a person of Cersei's standing. Look at Anne Boelyn,  her brother George and (iirc) Thomas Wyatt, because of their status they were not tortured while the others, of less birth or status, were. 

Stannis could torture Cersei but that certainly would not be accepted amongst the nobility of Westeros as something done to a sitting Queen.

 

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Where would Stannis even source supplies? The city is already starving and he has no money, unless he plunders the entire city which still isn't going to feed 500,000 people or his army. 

In any case it'll take weeks if not more to even acquire them, let alone sail back to the city and unload them whilst a huge army sits outside the walls. Stannis resupplying King's Landing is a logistical impossibility. Let's also ignore all the storms currently thrashing the Narrow Sea. The fleet's more likely to surrender to Tywin or break up before they consent to going about such a monstrous task, which would be incredibly difficult even by today's standards as far as the logistics go.

So many people aren't just going to stay loyal to Stannis when put in such an incredibly shitty situation. 

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Wouldnt Stannis daughter be a better prize for the Tyrells since then the throne would technically have a king Loras Tyrell with the Ser name Tyrell? 

 

Another thing many people forget is with Cersies confession of incest and that all three childrens are Jamies most of the nobilty in the Reach wont back the Lannisters be dahm what Mace Tyrell says and also the citadel wont back the Lannisters since its no longer whispers of incest it is confirmed atleast in their eye, confession thru torture is still a confession in feudal times.  

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1 hour ago, Stormking902 said:

Wouldnt Stannis daughter be a better prize for the Tyrells since then the throne would technically have a king Loras Tyrell with the Ser name Tyrell? 

That does not seem like something Stannis would do, make Renly's lover King or allow his heir to be known as a Tyrell. Nor does Loras seem inclined to partner up with Stannis after Renly's death. 

1 hour ago, Stormking902 said:

 

Another thing many people forget is with Cersies confession

 

What confession? She did not confess to the High Sparrow under severe duress, what makes you think she would so to Stannis?

1 hour ago, Stormking902 said:

, confession thru torture is still a confession in feudal times.  

Can you come up with any examples of female royalty being tortured in medieval times and then them being paraded around and confessing?

Torture as way of a confession was OK for people of lesser birth, people no one cared about. A Queen and a daughter of the Warden of the West is another matter entirely. 

And it strikes me as something Stannis would never do, he'd certainly execute her for her crime with or without a confession but he would never force a confession out from her under torture and then parade to the world his handy work. 

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