Heresy 195 and the Mists of Time

[shizett]

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

My take away has always been that, had this white walker sighting come from a source that Mormont considered more credible, the tone would be even more urgent and insistent; as it stands, he falls short of actually being able to say that the white walkers are back.

I see your point about the context, but it is the context that bothers me. He puts the sightings on the level of his personal feelings and thoughts. Then he tries to appeal to a sense of duty in Tyrion and then he tries to scare him. Why? He doesn't even try to answer Tyrion's comment about the fisherfolk, he just keeps talking. It is obvious that Mormont believes Tryion is an intelligent man and he is. Tyrion can be blind, but Mormont shares much of blame in this specific incident. One does not prime a listener (and a disbeliever at that) with talking about one's dreams and then goes on to bury the lead.

Even more importantly, the warden of the North's own brother is in the watch, he is the first ranger. Why didn't they tell Ned? The only mention of troubles beyond the wall that we hear from him is about Mance Rayder. It is obvious that the watch finds that information more important than the WW sighting. If he thinks everyone will dismiss fisherfolks' accounts, why would he plead to a southerner rather than the Warden of the North?

I do not disagree with your point about context and perhaps using "nonchalant" as Mormont's manner of speaking was wrong, but Mormont's actions and manner of putting forth the danger lacks the urgency that should have been there if he was truly afraid. It is a medieval like society, they cannot let Ned know when they get attacked and expect him to be there the next day. He might "say" he is afraid, but he sure does not "act" like it.

Keep in mind that by failing to write to different power bases in the realm of the rising troubles in the North, he put Jon and his other successors in even more trouble, as people should now not only believe the serious problems in the north where there has been no prior indications, they should at once take actions too.

[Black Crow]

5 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

I think Benjen is still around,  but I don’t think it is him.  I bet there is a story to why Benjen is at the Wall, I think he did something wrong.   

I'd have to disagree on that. There is certainly a mystery as to Benjen but I don't believe it has anything to do with him doing "something wrong".

Whatever else might be going on this story is at one level about the deadly rivalry between the Starks and the Lannisters. Compare and contrast the two families as families. The Lannisters sprawl over the west with Lord Tywin, his children and grandchildren surrounded by aunts, uncles, cousins and a plethora of lesser branches. The Starks by contrast stand alone, represented only by the surviving children of Winterfell and memories of their parents, uncle and aunt.

To a large extent this is just a literary device to set the children of Winterfell in sharp focus, and in order to achieve it there seems to be a tradition whereby there must be a Stark in Winterfell but the rest go to the Wall rather than set up as bannermen with fiefs of their own. This in turn may be developed into something deeper by GRRM, we'll have to wait and see, but the point is that Benjen was not singled out in being sent to the Wall either because he did something or knew too much about something. 

[Black Crow]

Returning to the timeline proper and thinking on the run as it were...

We've no reason to doubt that Aegon and his dragons came to Westeros 300 years ago and there's no real reason to doubt the Doom took Valyria 500 years ago, but what about earlier?

Would it make any difference to the story if we reduced the dates by a factor of 10; slicing a nought off the end of the figures and putting the arrival of the First Men in Westeros at 1,000 years ago rather than 10,000 years ago, placing the Long Night at 800 years ago or even 600 years ago and still leaving a 300 year gap for the Andals to arrive. We're probably going to be rather too tight in closing up the annals to that degree, but there really is an awful lot of wiggle room in the "traditional" dates and an awful lot of empty space. Might the Winterfell crypts be exactly what we see - a line of tombs on one level with no earlier ones?

[shizett]

27 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

This current thread is about the timelines and how our perceptions of history are being changed.

Sorry for the detour BC!

[Black Crow]

12 minutes ago, shizett said:

Sorry for the detour BC!

It wasn't a complaint, I was pointing out that our perceptions of the timelines are being changed and that we ought to allow for other things we were told at the outset being mince as well.

[Brad Stark]

We can put events in order:

1)  Long Night, recorded by Ghis

2) Rise of Valyria,  we know it is later, as they conquered Ghis

3) Andals arrived in Westeros,  we know they were displaced by Valyrians.

4) Nymeria arrived in Westeros,  we know the Andals arrived first. 

5)  Doom of Valyria,  we know it was after Nymeria left.  We can put a good date on this.

 

Can we add any other events before Doom we can reasonably be sure happened in a specific order?  

Can we work backwards, and put an ealiest and latest estimate on each of these?

[The Hidden Dragon]

Quote

We've no reason to doubt that Aegon and his dragons came to Westeros 300 years ago and there's no real reason to doubt the Doom took Valyria 500 years ago, but what about earlier?

Small point here - but I thought the Doom of Valyria took place in 114 BC, which would make it about 415 years ago.

[Black Crow]

Closer and closer yet...

[Matthew.]

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I know that Matthew doesn't like the idea of the Others lurking in the background all the time and we've rehearsed our respective arguments for long enough, but denying them is to deny the annals and the way that the story is moving.

This is not accurate, and I've clarified this in the past, but I'll reiterate: it is not my assertion that there was not a single white walker left until the modern era. Indeed, I am of the belief that some of the white walkers from the NK era have survived until the modern age. It would be more accurate to say that I think the few remaining Others were either bound in some way (physically or magically), or otherwise rendered impotent until very recently.

In other words, I don't just believe that they were unable to raise the dead, I believe that they were also unable to create new white walkers from tributes, and that it's only since the Craster Era that "production" has restarted.

The point of contention here is two things: 1.) the notion that the WWs were a persistent presence in the Haunted Forest (again, I believe that they were either bound, or hiding in the Lands of Always Winter while they were powerless) and 2.) The suggestion that the Watch knew they were out there, and that there was some sort of internal culture of knowing about the "white shadows," but not taking them seriously.

The latter, in particular, is a sticking point, because we're not disagreeing about an unresolved mystery, we're disagreeing about the basic context of the story we're being told. From my point of view, the Watch is tremendously ignorant, is composed largely of men who are skeptical of the idea that the WWs ever existed, and it's an important plot point that new white walkers are being created--a parallel to what Dany has done in the east.

 

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Why draw a distinction between the two by accepting that one has been here all the time but the other has not?

Because there is a distinction between the two. Unlike the CotF, the Others cannot go extinct in any traditional sense, and their absence is one of our warning signs that they are not just another northern race. Furthermore, the text itself makes a distinction between sightings of the two--while people south of the Wall might doubt the idea of the CotF, Aemon asserts that there are many accounts of rangers interacting with the CotF; the same cannot be said of the Others.

[Matthew.]

3 hours ago, shizett said:

I do not disagree with your point about context and perhaps using "nonchalant" as Mormont's manner of speaking was wrong, but Mormont's actions and manner of putting forth the danger lacks the urgency that should have been there if he was truly afraid. It is a medieval like society, they cannot let Ned know when they get attacked and expect him to be there the next day. He might "say" he is afraid, but he sure does not "act" like it.

I addressed this issue already in my earlier post--Mormont is uneasy, which is why he's asking Tyrion for help, but he lacks certitude. Mormont doesn't know that the white walkers have returned, which is why the discussion of that report from Eastwatch is treated the way it is. He's sharing a report with Tyrion that he knows to be dubious, but has troubled him nonetheless.

This is not a conversation where Mormont is saying "there are white walkers near Eastwatch," it's a conversation where Mormont is saying fisherfolk claim they've seen white walkers near Eastwatch. Like Tyrion, it's a sighting he doesn't consider entirely credible, yet it fits into a broader, troubling context. The sighting alone might be the sort of thing that could be shrugged off, but it's coming on the heels of a long summer ending, of mountain people fleeing their homes, of veteran rangers disappearing.
 

[Lady Dyanna]

On 2/5/2017 at 4:58 AM, Black Crow said:

As I said earlier he's not actually calculating that at all. The passage as written down by GRRM in both Feast for Crows and again in Dance with Dragons needs to be read in its entirety to put the list in context.

What Sam says is that the histories written down by the septons is mince; its full of stories of kings who reigned for hundreds of years, knights when there were no knights [and steel swords when there was no steel?] and so on, so why should the Lord Commander list be any different when the oldest version he can find already has 674 names on it. Some of the more recent names are likely to have been in the memory of man, but most of them are likely to be as fabulous as Ser Serwyn of the of the Mirror Shield and Bob the Builder. 

Although I do agree with what your saying that it's entirely possible that he's just trying to say that the lists and what we think we know are unreliable, I'm looking more at the end words that he's using. Based on that list he's saying that it would suggest that the list was written during... During what? John says long ago, but what specific time long ago? And why would he bother to bring it up if there wasn't evidence that it was NOT written during the time frame that he anticipated? 

All I'm trying to say is that we don't know for sure if it was written before or after the time period that it would make sense to be written in. For that matter, maybe it really didn't have anything to do with the timing of the list and more to do with what exactly was occurring at the time it was written. Since he never reveals the exact timing we have no clue as to the concurrent events of that time frame either. 

[Lady Dyanna]

On 2/6/2017 at 2:17 PM, Black Crow said:

Wights are the short answer. A few white shadows occasionally glimpsed in the wood are not the threat once posed by their armies of the slain. Harma Dogshead, Alfyn Crowkiller and The Weeper [and their forebears] are a much more immediate threat than an occasional shadow.

But where exactly do we hear that they are white shadows being glimpsed in the woods on occasion? There's only that one instance when Mormont is talking to Tyrion that he actually mentions it. And as was already noted, we can't be sure if Mormont is actually making light of the comment or if he's just not sure that it comes from a reliable source. Obviously the man has some concerns or he wouldn't have brought it up at all. Maybe under normal circumstances this is a comment that he would have just taken as superstitious nonsense coming from a lesser person. (Just like Tyrion's merpeople sightings) However, if he combines that strange knowledge with the other things he mentions, it only then starts to add up to a potential problem. 

We also don't know for sure what Benjen does and does not mention to Ned at his visit to Winterfell. It's not like they show any detailed conversation between the two of them. Benjen might very well have passed on those concerns and Ned just didn't take them very seriously. Or maybe he didn't. The thing is, again, we don't know for sure. I agree with @Matthew. that it really doesn't make a whole lot of sense for all of this to be treated with such skepticism if there was evidence of the ww being routinely sighted. Something was stopping more ww from being created. I don't know for sure what that was, but I do believe that whatever it might have been, it isn't happening anymore.

[Lady Dyanna]

On 2/6/2017 at 3:05 PM, shizett said:

This is exactly why Sam's comment about WW's occasional sightings makes little sense. If WWs are the Others (or at least the important, animating part), why would they treat them as non-existing? The WWs may have been "inactive" for a while, but as long as they existed they could have always attacked.

But, is Sam actually saying that they were occasionally sighted? I took it more as Sam saying that they were mentioned. It could be that they were only mentioned in relation to the dragonglass that the CotF were providing. It could have been they were mentioned in relation to continued "what if" defenses. i.e.We need to continue the tradition of burning bodies in case they ever return or keep dragonglass on hand just in case, etc. I guess what I'm saying is that we really don't know for sure what the context was of them being mentioned. Sam never gets that far. I'm not saying that there might not have been some that existed, just that they were limited enough in threat and or sighting for them to become something of a legend and become disregarded as a made up tale, just like Tyrion's merlings. 

[Lady Dyanna]

On 2/6/2017 at 2:01 PM, LynnS said:

What could they possibly trade with the CotF, unless it's dragonglass?  

That is an interesting question. What is it that the CotF have that could be of value to the men of the NW? You don't bother to trade with someone unless they have something that you consider to be of value. 

[LynnS]

8 minutes ago, Lady Dyanna said:

That is an interesting question. What is it that the CotF have that could be of value to the men of the NW? You don't bother to trade with someone unless they have something that you consider to be of value. 

And I wonder if Benjen went looking for them for the purpose of acquiring dragonglass since he also tells Ned that rangers have been disappearing.  Most likely Ned told him Gared's wild tales as well.  I think it's likely that Benjen stashed the horn the dragonglass.

[LordBlakeney]

 

15 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

My guess is Craster's father was a Stark and someone learned how to turn male Stark babies into White Walkers.  As long as he stays in the North making babies,  he can live, but will get turned into a White Walker himself if he doesn't go along with the plan.

I like this idea. 

[Lord Wraith]

9 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

We can put events in order:

1)  Long Night, recorded by Ghis

2) Rise of Valyria,  we know it is later, as they conquered Ghis

3) Andals arrived in Westeros,  we know they were displaced by Valyrians.

4) Nymeria arrived in Westeros,  we know the Andals arrived first. 

5)  Doom of Valyria,  we know it was after Nymeria left.  We can put a good date on this.

 

Can we add any other events before Doom we can reasonably be sure happened in a specific order?  

Can we work backwards, and put an ealiest and latest estimate on each of these?

I'd add the Great Empire of the Dawn set before the Long Night and could be argued that the Long Night is what helped destroy it.

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, Lord Wraith said:

I'd add the Great Empire of the Dawn set before the Long Night and could be argued that the Long Night is what helped destroy it.

I agree.  Also I don't think the 'long night' is literal in the sense that there was no sunshine or that the sun was blocked out for a generation.  I think it more likely that people had to move underground to survive and were born and died in the darkness of the cave systems and only surviving if there was a source of underground heat.  There seems to be a suggestion of that in Bloodraven's cave when Bran encounters the bone field including adults, children, animals, giants and cotf.  The long night could also be a euphamism for the longer nights normally encountered during the winter months in the northern hemisphere.   So snow falling hundreds of feet deep and lasting for a generation; would be a very long 'winter'.

[Lady Dyanna]

2 hours ago, LynnS said:

And I wonder if Benjen went looking for them for the purpose of acquiring dragonglass since he also tells Ned that rangers have been disappearing.  Most likely Ned told him Gared's wild tales as well.  I think it's likely that Benjen stashed the horn the dragonglass.

Well, really the only options that ever made any sense for that dragonglass were either Benjen or Coldhands. I could see Ghost getting more drawn in and leading Jon to that cache if it was Benjen. Someone that he was familiar with and knew had Jon's best interests at heart. That also might help to make some sense as to why Benjen was accepting of taking Jon back to the wall with him. If after talking to Ned it made a piece of the puzzle click for him, and he realized that he would be going off on a mission he might not return from he might have wanted to have someone else at the Wall that the rest of the Starks might be more likely to believe a strange tale from. He was also quite adamant that Jon not come with him beyond the wall. (Or it might just be late at night when I should really be sleeping.)

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

I agree.  Also I don't think the 'long night' is literal in the sense that there was no sunshine or that the sun was blocked out for a generation.  I think it more likely that people had to move underground to survive and were born and died in the darkness of the cave systems and only surviving if there was a source of underground heat.  There seems to be a suggestion of that in Bloodraven's cave when Bran encounters the bone field including adults, children, animals, giants and cotf.  The long night could also be a euphamism for the longer nights normally encountered during the winter months in the northern hemisphere.   So snow falling hundreds of feet deep and lasting for a generation; would be a very long 'winter'.

A time of great darkness can also be figurative, in the sense of "the darkest days of the war"