Blue roses, Southron Ambitions, and the machinations of a mad king

[Macgregor of the North]

2 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

One other thing, just a gut feeling, but I believe Martin is gonna make Rhaegar out to be a pretty great man, maybe not Ned  Stark great, but the opposite of crazy Targ people.  Just my thoughts on it, but it colors my opinions.

I fully agree. Rhaegar I believe was always deep down only ever thinking about the realm and preserving life itself and all that serious stuff. We know he was Prophecy driven and it really was his life's work that whole "Prince that was promised, Song of Ice and Fire, Dragon has three heads so there must be one more stuff". 

He genuinely was driven by all that sole purpose I believe. Which makes him one of the greatest guys I suppose, in the whole story.

I firmly believe that Elia understood her husband and agreed that if he believed it so much that he needed three children to fulfil part of his Prophecy, and that she wasn't the woman to give him his three, then he had to look elsewhere and ultimately she was ok with that. 

This I believe is where Lyanna comes in. I understand the political angles you guys are bringing to the table but I have never gotten any stronger vibe on why Rhaegar chose Lyanna than because he saw her as a possible perfect fit for the mother of the third head of the Dragon. 

We have all the clues already I believe. Elia was bedridden for six months after Rhaenys. Even trying for Aegon was a risk but Rhaegar did it because he saw a Comet in the sky so he and Elia tried to make the magic happen that night, which it did and they conceived. 

But all throughout that pregnancy (and in the build up to the Tourney) I think they both knew that this may well be the last child Elia gives Rhaegar as there was even a serious chance she may even die so discussions (or at the very least, thoughts by Rhaegar) had to have taken place for the possibility Rhaegar had to find another mate. But she had to be right. 

In steps Lyanna. I fully accept my theory rests on other theories like the Lyanna/KOTLT and GOHH/Summerhal Rhaegar visits. But since I believe those theories I have a small amount of confidence. 

Whatever the GOHH told him I think was symbolic and it stuck, she may have even mentioned blue Winter roses as well as a she wolf or Laughing tree, I'm not sure what exactly but when Rhaegar first beholds Lyanna these things may awaken in his mind and he may begin to realise he's meant to do something here. 

When he finds out she was the KOTLT and possibly even talks with her, I think it's signed and sealed that he wants to send a message to this girl. Which he does. It's all Prophecy driven though for his long term plans. I don't think he even understands fully what is happening yet but he's going with his gut and on the strength of the pointers he got from the GOHH. 

This brings us back to how we agree he's a great guy, because he doesn't rush in like a fool and steal her away right there. He's a father and a husband, he has time he thinks, the Long Night isn't coming right this second, he thinks there's a Summer coming after this Spring and he needs to tend to Elia and see her safe through the birth of their second child. 

He does that and spends some time with them before reminding Elia that there must be one more before he goes, as the Dragon has three heads. The maesters have confirmed that was the last child she will give Rhaegar. 

This is another point we agree on next. I think this is where Rhaegar seeks the GOHH one last time for news or dreams in exchange for Jenny's song and when he finally finds her, possibly in the Riverlands, what he hears is what I believe to be the final reassurance that what he's doing will be for the best in the long run even though it will cause much woe at first. 

So he encounters Lyanna and they make their run for it. 

Sorry to ramble there, I tried to keep my response in line with the OP on Rhaegars motives at Harrenhal and also expand on Rhaegars own decency you brought up. 

Good thread this, cheers for starting it. 

I'll remind folks, these are just my thoughts, I'm not asserting they are true.

[Macgregor of the North]

18 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Just as in the real world, political alliances change in Martin's world. We see it happen with the Tyrell's shifting from supporting Renly to supporting the Lannisters. So, why people seem to think the politics of the pre-rebellion is frozen in the factional struggle between father and son is beyond me. There are different political interests that change as events bring them into conflict. For the Targaryens the growth of the STAB bloc and the almost successful inclusion of the Lannisters into the bloc with the nearly completed agreement to marry Jaime to Lysa represents a huge fundamental shift in the balance of power. The rebuff of these High Lords to Rhaegar's scheme to replace his father lays out this pending shift for the Targaryens and the need for both father and son to try to stop it. I would suggest the response of Rhaegar honoring Lyanna is the perfect bookend to Aerys response by honoring Jaime. Both are aimed at stopping the marriage alliances of the STAB bloc from coming into existence. Both send the Targaryen message without forcing a showdown with these High Lords. Which is the last thing either father or son wants in that political climate. The outcome of such a struggle is not clear.

It is late here in San Francisco, so let me respond more tomorrow. @King Ned Stark let me also get back to your post tomorrow. Thanks again for the discussion.

To the bolded part SFD. 

Do you mean here that the crowning was a message aimed at stopping the marriage of Robert and Lyanna coming into existence?.

I can't really agree there mate as Rhaegar let's them all go there separate ways and it's not until a few months (at least) that he sees Lyanna again. 

In this time Robert, being a powerful Lord in his own right, could have pushed the marriage to happen weeks after the Tourney, days if he really wanted. He could have even used the crowning as a motivational slight against him, to secure Lyannas safety as his bride and keep her at his side. 

Obviously he doesn't, but that's nothing to do with the crowning, it's down to GRRM why they never married in the months after the Tourney. 

[Macgregor of the North]

@SFDanny

I think I see what angle your coming at all this from, if I may take a stab at your reasoning. 

You view the actions of Rhaegar and Aerys as a similar way of sending a political message at the Tourney of Harrenhal. You equate each action and see them as powerful messages designed to do the same thing. 

Im sure you expect this but I have to disagree. I do understand the angle your approaching this from but these actions are not really that similar.

Aerys honoring Jaime into the KG is a direct smash and grab. There is no question that he is taking the heir from a great rival House and taking him out of the line of inheritance, and also, physically taking the person away from who the threat is intended at. The KG serve for life and serve the King at KL.

Infact, he spirits Jaime away right there and then. Poof, he's gone. Under lock and key at KL. That's a powerful message.

Rhaegar crowning Lyanna though. The reasons for that aren't even clear cut for a start, in regards to Aerys reasons, hence we are here discussing it. But we can speculate. If we come from your political angle, this message holds nowhere near the same power and intent as Aerys' message which completely and utterly steals away that which is most important to his rival, crippling many of his plans.

The simple crowning of Lyanna places no hold over her in the way that Aerys actions with Jaimes do, it doesn't even scare the STAB bloc members as Brandon is ready to engage in combat with Rhaegar right there over it, while Ned is also angry and Robert laughs but is secretly boiling underneath I'll bet. 

If anything, this message has potentially the complete opposite effect to Aerys message. It could incite war right off the bat (since Brandon and Robert are known hot heads) and can also push Robert to wife Lyanna immediately, for her safety and perhaps a reply message of his own for his distant cousin. 

So I think to equate these two actions is not really the way to go if this is a strong point for your case that Rhaegar was politically driven in the crowning of Lyanna. 

May I ask what your views on the Prophecy/mother of the third head angle are?. Do you think Rhaegar had a mind for politics more than Prophecy and saving the world in the Long Night?. Honest question.

[Macgregor of the North]

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I don't think we know for sure. I'm inclined to think of Steffon as someone who sees an opening in the deterioration of the Aerys/Tywin relationship and seizes the opportunity to further his ties to Aerys. Or this could just be Aerys turning to an unwilling Steffon. Too little to go on, but the fact Steffon is sent on his mission to find Rhaegar's bride tells us there is likely some trust between the two men - if Aerys is capable of trust. As to the Steffon's role in the formation of the STAB bloc, this too is unknown, but I'm convinced the major role in bringing Storm's End into the bloc falls to Maester Cressen.

On Steffon and Aerys I feel we have plenty to go on. As Lads before the WOT9PK Aerys, Tywin and Steffon were inseparable at Kings Landing. Aerys and Steffons relationship never suffered like Aerys and Tywins did by all accounts and they remained very tight until Steffons death in all records on the matter. 

Its even strongly suspected that when Aerys recalled Steffon to KL to take a seat on the council it was with a view to naming him as hand after he stripped Tywin of the office. 

I think Aerys and Steffons solidity is not worth looking at really. Them boys were tight cousins. So any STAB power bloc stuff that begun against Aerys after the WOT9PK, I'm personally quite sure that it was without Steffons involvement. 

For reference:

WOT9PK - 260AC

Steffoms death - 278AC. 

Theres no hint anywhere Steffon has any part of any plots against Aerys in between those times.

Feel free to elaborate on Cressens involvement though, at the OP's blessing of course. The maesters are involved somewhere in all this. 

[The Commentator]

On 1/24/2017 at 10:34 PM, King Ned Stark said:

A recent topic about why Steffon failed to find Rhaegar a bride of Valyrian blood got me thinking about the Mad King, as I posited that Aerys's actual plan was to stunt Rhaegar's influence in court and around the realm.  First he sought a foreign bride that would bring his heir no new allies in Westeros, and when that failed, opted for a bride of known "delicacy" that could not travel when she was young, and perhaps would be too frail to produce heirs for Rhaegar whom Aerys was starting to see as a growing threat to his reign.

Now, Martin, I believe has crafted these mysteries very carefully, so as to leave them virtually unsolvable through the text alone.  However, Martin does seem adept at keeping his characters' actions consistent.  So using what text I could find, along with character motive and opportunity, I have tried to take a contrarian view at some long debated mysteries.  This is not so much a theory as it is an attempt to put a different lense on the subject and see what the board thinks, most of which are smarter and better versed in the text than myself.  Feel free to shoot it down or add to it, here goes.

Starting with Aerys, we get the impressiom that he can be charming, but also petty, jealous, and cruel.  Aerys and Tywin start down a bad road.

So we see the jealous and grasping Aerys, who will lie and deceive to make himself look better and others look worse.  Then later:

So we see Aerys could have rid himself of Tywin, but preferred to keep him close until he could bring his Hand low.  Only after he acquired Jaime in the KG, and had leverage over Tywin and humiliated him by leaving him a dwarf as his only heir did he finally release Tywin from his post.  And then the mistrust starts to bleed into Rhaegar.

And.

So, despite being Mad, Aerys is somewhat capable of using public sentiment, lies, and underhanded tactics to keep his rivals from gaining too much support against the throne.

And this is where I'll delve into some tinfoilery, or at least speculation using a different lense.  Aerys, paranoid as they come, was worried about Rhaegar's growing influence, and possibly about a power. bloc Rickard was building against him.  People have been asking for a long time, myself included, why on earth would Rhaegar undermine his own coup by naming Lyanna as QoLaB.

 Well, what if Aerys made him present Lyanna with the laurel of blue roses to drive a wedge between his two rivals.  I know it sounds crazy, and probably is, but it is the Mad King after all. And, it would be similar tactics he had used before, using leverage (Elia and Ashara were there) to bring his opponents low and make himself seem more desirable.  Maybe that explains why Ashara was dishonored, though that seems hard to fit in, and why Rhaegar entered the lists, and why Barristan wonders about being a better knight and not having Rhaegar's trust.  If, and yeah it's a big if, Aerys somehow compelled Rhaegar to undermine himself, Rhaegar had to ensure victory, and possibly ordered his men to stand down and let him win, further bringing Rhaegar low, and making him seem weak in the eyes of his knights and men.

The plan, if it indeed worked out that way, would've worked if not for the honor of Jon Arryn.

You know, you're not actually paranoid if they are out to get ya.  Aerys was crazy, maybe crazy like a fox.

Like I said, this is not a pet theory of mine, and maybe has been presented before.  Anyway, tear it down or build on it, would enjoy seeing what you guys think.

Sorry for the length.

This is very possible.  Seducing the glue that would bind Stark to Baratheon would prevent the blood alliance from forming between those two troublemaking families.  Rickard Stark had been plotting treason for years.  His plan always was to put Robert on the throne and Brandon will be his Hand of the King. 

[Macgregor of the North]

1 hour ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

This is very possible.  Seducing the glue that would bind Stark to Baratheon would prevent the blood alliance from forming between those two troublemaking families.  

Do you mean that Rhaegar actions (crowning Lyanna), was designed to lessen the bond between Stark and Baratheon?.

[Greywater-Watch]

On ‎25‎.‎01‎.‎2017 at 11:12 PM, Frey family reunion said:

This is actually a fairly decent theory, but I'm wondering if either Rhaegar or Aerys would have been aware of the problems awarding Lyanna with a blue rose crown would have caused.

If we look at the World Book, the crowning of Love and Beauty was a tradition started by the Gardner Kings in the Reach.  It was basically an award given to a Lady both in regards to her beauty and her character.  It did not necessarily connote a romantic relationship between the given and the recipient of the award.  And in fact, given that Rhaegar was so invested in Elia's unborn child, I doubt Rhaegar intended his crowning of Lyanna to be considered a romantic gesture.  I think it was given for one of two reasons:  1) as a sign of respect to Lyanna, if he got an inkling that she Had something to do with the Knight of the Laughing Tree, or 2) he was in fact trying to curry favor with the Stark clan.

Even the maester of the World Book theorizes that Rhaegar may have done this to try and curry favor from the Starks.

(This tourney probably was greatly inspired by Sir Walter Scott's tourney in Ivanhoe.  We have a mystery knight (well multiple mystery knights) and the crowning a Queen of Love and Beauty.  When the mystery knight wins the tourney, Prince John suggests that the mystery knight should crown a particular lady.  The text explains that Prince John makes this pronouncement, for among other reasons, to curry favor from the Lady's father. And yes, the mystery knight chooses instead to crown the object of his desire, but if I had to guess Martin is somehow subverting this tale in his take on the mystery knight.) 

Apparently the legend of Bael the Bard is not a particularly well known legend.  At least Jon who grew up in Winterfell never heard it.  So it is very possible that neither Rhaegar nor Aerys would not have been aware of what a crown of blue roses may have signified to a Stark who was in fact aware of this Wildling legend.

So perhaps an attempt to either curry favor with the Starks or to simply award Lyanna for her strength of character, went horribly awry.

In http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Lyanna_Stark it say:

"Prince Rhaegar won the tournament, but instead of crowning his own wife, Princess Elia Martell, as the queen of love and beauty, Rhaegar shocked those present by presenting the laurel of blue winter roses to Lyanna, placing it in her lap with the tip of his lance.^[18][5] At that moment "all the smiles died".^[18] Brandon Stark believed Rhaegar's action to have been a slight upon Lyanna's honor. Some people say that Robert, Lyanna's betrothed, laughed at Rhaegar's action, claiming that Rhaegar had only paid Lyanna her due; However, those closer to Robert claim that Robert brooded over the insult, and grew resentful of Rhaegar hence forth.^[5] "

If you are right (see the bold part marked by me in your text), why is it then, that "all the smiles died"?

I mean, that is a weakness in the theories developed in this thread: If this gesture of crowning Lyanna was a sort of secret message which could only be understood by those involved (alliance of some noble houses or else), and if (as Free family reunion points out) the crowning of a woman after a tourney was not an insult, WHY DID ALL THE SMILES DIE?

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

In http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Lyanna_Stark it say:

"Prince Rhaegar won the tournament, but instead of crowning his own wife, Princess Elia Martell, as the queen of love and beauty, Rhaegar shocked those present by presenting the laurel of blue winter roses to Lyanna, placing it in her lap with the tip of his lance.^[18][5] At that moment "all the smiles died".^[18] Brandon Stark believed Rhaegar's action to have been a slight upon Lyanna's honor. Some people say that Robert, Lyanna's betrothed, laughed at Rhaegar's action, claiming that Rhaegar had only paid Lyanna her due; However, those closer to Robert claim that Robert brooded over the insult, and grew resentful of Rhaegar hence forth.^[5] "

If you are right (see the bold part marked by me in your text), why is it then, that "all the smiles died"?

I mean, that is a weakness in the theories developed in this thread: If this gesture of crowning Lyanna was a sort of secret message which could only be understood by those involved (alliance of some noble houses or else), and if (as Free family reunion points out) the crowning of a woman after a tourney was not an insult, WHY DID ALL THE SMILES DIE?

The phrase "all the smiles died" refers to Ned's remembrance of the event.  And it's evident that Ned thinks of the crowning as the beginning of a series of events that led to catastrophe.  But if we look at the Worldbook's recording of the event we have a wide variety of opinions.  We have the lords surrounding Aerys whispering in the king's ear, that Rhaegar was trying to win favor with the Starks, since that's the only reason that he would have crowned someone other than his wife.  We have Robert believing that it was a shot against him, which was a fairly understandable reaction.  It was the Starks' reaction that seems to be the most surprising, in the maester's viewpoint.

A reading of the tourney in Ivanhoe helped me understand the myriad layers of this award a little better.  The award could simply be a way to win favor with the house of the lady who receives the award (as the lords around Aerys assume).  It could be a romantic gesture, and in Ivanhoe, the betrothed to the recipient does get very jealous of the mystery knight who presented it to her.  So Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna could certainly be seen as a an intentional slight against Robert. 

But the idea of crowning Lyanna to gain enmity with the Stark clan is an unusual one.  In Ivanhoe, even though the guardian of the recipient had arranged a marriage with another man, he is still ecstatic that the mystery knight crowned his ward.  It's a big source of pride to his family and to his Saxon pride.  What's unusual in our tale, is that Lyanna's family takes more offense to the gesture than Robert does.

But of course, the reader is aware of the Bael tale, and it is very possible that the Starks are aware of the tale as well.   And for the Starks the Bael tale is a bit of a thumb to the eye of their family by Wildlings. 

What I'm suggesting is that we don't have any reason to think that the Bael tale is widely known in the South.  In fact Jon, had never heard of it before, so it may not even be a widely known tale in the North.  So there is no reason to assume that Rhaegar knew of the Bael tale and the connotations that a blue rose crown would carry.

I also find it unusual that Rhaegar would make such a public romantic gesture towards Lyanna, if in fact that's what he intended this to be.  It seems that a private gesture would have served Rhaegar's interests (and Lyanna's interests) much better.   Mainly because it is evident that he is still very much invested in Elia's unborn child, as his prince that was promised.

 

[Sly Wren]

15 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

I think we are all beating around the same bush here, which is what I had hoped for, really smart people who know the text better than me that think Rhaegar just didn't see some cute 15 yr old and was like, ahh, forget prophecy and my crazy dad, I'm just gonna go after that.

Amen--the idea that Rhaegar would go to all the trouble of the Tourney, let alone his and Tywin's willingness to get Aerys dead at Duskendale, and then lose his head for his cousin's fiance--no. 

Something else is up.

[Sly Wren]

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

If you are right (see the bold part marked by me in your text), why is it then, that "all the smiles died"?

I mean, that is a weakness in the theories developed in this thread: If this gesture of crowning Lyanna was a sort of secret message which could only be understood by those involved (alliance of some noble houses or else), and if (as Free family reunion points out) the crowning of a woman after a tourney was not an insult, WHY DID ALL THE SMILES DIE?

 

10 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

The phrase "all the smiles died" refers to Ned's remembrance of the event.  And it's evident that Ned thinks of the crowning as the beginning of a series of events that led to catastrophe.  But if we look at the Worldbook's recording of the event we have a wide variety of opinions.  We have the lords surrounding Aerys whispering in the king's ear, that Rhaegar was trying to win favor with the Starks, since that's the only reason that he would have crowned someone other than his wife.  We have Robert believing that it was a shot against him, which was a fairly understandable reaction.  It was the Starks' reaction that seems to be the most surprising, in the maester's viewpoint.

Exactly--the World Book writer questions why the Starks were upset, not everyone.

And when the triumphant Prince of Dragonstone named Lyanna Stark, daughter of the Lord of Winterfell, the queen of love and beauty, placing a garland of blue roses in her lap with the tip of his lance, the lickspittle lords gathered around the king declared that further proof of his perfidy. Why would the prince have thus given insult to his own wife, the Princess Elia Martell of Dorne (who was present), unless it was to help him gain the Iron Throne? The crowning of the Stark girl, who was by all reports a wild and boyish young thing with none of the Princess Elia's delicate beauty, could only have been meant to win the allegiance of Winterfell to Prince Rhaegar's cause, Symond Staunton suggested to the king. 

Yet if this were true, why did Lady Lyanna's brothers seem so distraught at the honor the prince had bestowed upon her? Brandon Stark, the heir to Winterfell, had to be restrained from confronting Rhaegar at what he took as a slight upon his sister's honor, for Lyanna Stark had long been betrothed to Robert Baratheon, Lord of Storm's End. Eddard Stark, Brandon's younger brother and a close friend to Lord Robert, was calmer but no more pleased. As for Robert Baratheon himself, some say he laughed at the prince's gesture, claiming that Rhaegar had done no more than pay Lyanna her due...but those who knew him better say the young lord brooded on the insult, and that his heart hardened toward the Prince of Dragonstone from that day forth. World Book: The Fall of the Dragons: The Year of the False Spring.

So, the writer assumes it's a hidden message to unite, but then, looking at Stark anger, shows that interp just doesn't work. One way or another, something's very wrong with this crowning.

14 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

But the idea of crowning Lyanna to gain enmity with the Stark clan is an unusual one.

True. But given what Martin's told us about Bael's intent with leaving the Blue Rose, seems like there's a good chance that the crowning was to insult the Starks. Or to tell them he knows what they are up to--and to back off.

Or something hostile--Bael wasn't being friendly. Martin takes time to tell us that whole thing started as a grudge-match between powerful men.

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

 

Exactly--the World Book writer questions why the Starks were upset, not everyone.

And when the triumphant Prince of Dragonstone named Lyanna Stark, daughter of the Lord of Winterfell, the queen of love and beauty, placing a garland of blue roses in her lap with the tip of his lance, the lickspittle lords gathered around the king declared that further proof of his perfidy. Why would the prince have thus given insult to his own wife, the Princess Elia Martell of Dorne (who was present), unless it was to help him gain the Iron Throne? The crowning of the Stark girl, who was by all reports a wild and boyish young thing with none of the Princess Elia's delicate beauty, could only have been meant to win the allegiance of Winterfell to Prince Rhaegar's cause, Symond Staunton suggested to the king. 

Yet if this were true, why did Lady Lyanna's brothers seem so distraught at the honor the prince had bestowed upon her? Brandon Stark, the heir to Winterfell, had to be restrained from confronting Rhaegar at what he took as a slight upon his sister's honor, for Lyanna Stark had long been betrothed to Robert Baratheon, Lord of Storm's End. Eddard Stark, Brandon's younger brother and a close friend to Lord Robert, was calmer but no more pleased. As for Robert Baratheon himself, some say he laughed at the prince's gesture, claiming that Rhaegar had done no more than pay Lyanna her due...but those who knew him better say the young lord brooded on the insult, and that his heart hardened toward the Prince of Dragonstone from that day forth. World Book: The Fall of the Dragons: The Year of the False Spring.

So, the writer assumes it's a hidden message to unite, but then, looking at Stark anger, shows that interp just doesn't work. One way or another, something's very wrong with this crowning.

True. But given what Martin's told us about Bael's intent with leaving the Blue Rose, seems like there's a good chance that the crowning was to insult the Starks. Or to tell them he knows what they are up to--and to back off.

Or something hostile--Bael wasn't being friendly. Martin takes time to tell us that whole thing started as a grudge-match between powerful men.

I think you're correct if Rhaegar and/or Aerys was familiar with the Bael tale.  I'm suggesting that we don't have any reason to believe that they were familiar with the tale.  There is another option, that still fits with one of the original motivations behind the award.  The crowning of the queen apparently had as much to do with her character as her physical beauty.  Rhaegar wasn't spurred into action until after the arrival of the Knight of the Laughing Tree.  If perhaps Rhaegar gleaned that Lyanna had something to do with the Knight, then the crown awarded to Lyanna may have simply been his salute to Lyanna for her actions surrounding the lessons taught by the mystery knight.  He keeps her secret, but he gives her a very public acknowledgment commending the strength of her character.

And if he never knew about the tale of Bael, then he'd have no reason to expect the reaction that followed from the Starks, anyway.  If that's true, I'd be interested to know who would have suggested a blue rose crown, and what their motivations would have been to suggest it.  The OP suggests that Aerys ordered it.  Perhaps, or another party with their own hidden agenda could have suggested it.  There was a brother of the Night's Watch present at the tourney, who would have been the one person who may have been aware of the shitstorm giving a laurel of blue roses to a Stark daughter would have caused...

 

[Sly Wren]

16 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think you're correct if Rhaegar and/or Aerys was familiar with the Bael tale.  I'm suggesting that we don't have any reason to believe that they were familiar with the tale.

Oh! No--I am not suggesting that they know the Bael Tale. I'm saying Martin made sure we (readers) knew it. And includes parts of the context in every novel. Even gives us a Bael-ish who steals Stark Maid Sansa. And Mance, who followed a lot of Bael's playbook, loves the song, and "steals" Jon.

Martin's made it clear what Bael's motive was. Made sure readers know. Might very well be that no one south of the Wall knows what Bael meant with that rose. But I'm pretty sure Martin intends for readers to remember. And that factor gives us info on what Rhaegar's intent was. 

16 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

There is another option, that still fits with one of the original motivations behind the award.  The crowning of the queen apparently had as much to do with her character as her physical beauty.  Rhaegar wasn't spurred into action until after the arrival of the Knight of the Laughing Tree.  If perhaps Rhaegar gleaned that Lyanna had something to do with the Knight, then the crown awarded to Lyanna may have simply been his salute to Lyanna for her actions surrounding the lessons taught by the mystery knight.  He keeps her secret, but he gives her a very public acknowledgment commending the strength of her character.

A very popular interp. But given that Martin keeps telling us about Bael and Bael-like plotters in every novel, even before we actually get the Bael Tale, the idea that the blue roses and Stark maid elements are markers to the readers that Rhaegar's a political plotter with a grudge or a plan--that's gotta be considered.

16 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

And if he never knew about the tale of Bael, then he'd have no reason to expect the reaction that followed from the Starks, anyway.

True. But given that we do know Rhaegar's been trying to take over from Devil Daddy for a while--at least since Duskendale--then the idea that he had something else in mind and that the Starks got the message and that's why Martin highlighted their reactions in both the novels and the World Book--that's gotta be on the table as a strong option.

16 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

If that's true, I'd be interested to know who would have suggested a blue rose crown, and what their motivations would have been to suggest it.  The OP suggests that Aerys ordered it.  Perhaps, or another party with their own hidden agenda could have suggested it.  There was a brother of the Night's Watch present at the tourney, who would have been the one person who may have been aware of the shitstorm giving a laurel of blue roses to a Stark daughter would have caused...

And interesting idea. Though given that the Tourney was planned, the idea that they were going to use blue roses anyway (it's right after a winter, after all--could be those were the flowers they could get--or that the blue roses were rare and thus showed off wealth) is also an option.

In which case, the roses could well be a marker for readers, not necessarily something with known significance to Rhaegar.

[Frey family reunion]

5 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Oh! No--I am not suggesting that they know the Bael Tale. I'm saying Martin made sure we (readers) knew it. And includes parts of the context in every novel. Even gives us a Bael-ish who steals Stark Maid Sansa. And Mance, who followed a lot of Bael's playbook, loves the song, and "steals" Jon.

Martin's made it clear what Bael's motive was. Made sure readers know. Might very well be that no one south of the Wall knows what Bael meant with that rose. But I'm pretty sure Martin intends for readers to remember. And that factor gives us info on what Rhaegar's intent was. 

A very popular interp. But given that Martin keeps telling us about Bael and Bael-like plotters in every novel, even before we actually get the Bael Tale, the idea that the blue roses and Stark maid elements are markers to the readers that Rhaegar's a political plotter with a grudge or a plan--that's gotta be considered.

True. But given that we do know Rhaegar's been trying to take over from Devil Daddy for a while--at least since Duskendale--then the idea that he had something else in mind and that the Starks got the message and that's why Martin highlighted their reactions in both the novels and the World Book--that's gotta be on the table as a strong option.

And interesting idea. Though given that the Tourney was planned, the idea that they were going to use blue roses anyway (it's right after a winter, after all--could be those were the flowers they could get--or that the blue roses were rare and thus showed off wealth) is also an option.

In which case, the roses could well be a marker for readers, not necessarily something with known significance to Rhaegar.

Oh I absolutely agree that Martin uses the imagery to plant a suggestion in the reader's mind.  The question is whether Martin is trying to subtly lead us to the correct or incorrect conclusion is very up in the air, in my opinion.

[SFDanny]

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

 

Exactly--the World Book writer questions why the Starks were upset, not everyone.

And when the triumphant Prince of Dragonstone named Lyanna Stark, daughter of the Lord of Winterfell, the queen of love and beauty, placing a garland of blue roses in her lap with the tip of his lance, the lickspittle lords gathered around the king declared that further proof of his perfidy. Why would the prince have thus given insult to his own wife, the Princess Elia Martell of Dorne (who was present), unless it was to help him gain the Iron Throne? The crowning of the Stark girl, who was by all reports a wild and boyish young thing with none of the Princess Elia's delicate beauty, could only have been meant to win the allegiance of Winterfell to Prince Rhaegar's cause, Symond Staunton suggested to the king. 

Yet if this were true, why did Lady Lyanna's brothers seem so distraught at the honor the prince had bestowed upon her? Brandon Stark, the heir to Winterfell, had to be restrained from confronting Rhaegar at what he took as a slight upon his sister's honor, for Lyanna Stark had long been betrothed to Robert Baratheon, Lord of Storm's End. Eddard Stark, Brandon's younger brother and a close friend to Lord Robert, was calmer but no more pleased. As for Robert Baratheon himself, some say he laughed at the prince's gesture, claiming that Rhaegar had done no more than pay Lyanna her due...but those who knew him better say the young lord brooded on the insult, and that his heart hardened toward the Prince of Dragonstone from that day forth. World Book: The Fall of the Dragons: The Year of the False Spring.

So, the writer assumes it's a hidden message to unite, but then, looking at Stark anger, shows that interp just doesn't work. One way or another, something's very wrong with this crowning.

True. But given what Martin's told us about Bael's intent with leaving the Blue Rose, seems like there's a good chance that the crowning was to insult the Starks. Or to tell them he knows what they are up to--and to back off.

Or something hostile--Bael wasn't being friendly. Martin takes time to tell us that whole thing started as a grudge-match between powerful men.

What's missing is a critical part of the political context of the time. The existence of the STAB bloc and it own plans separate from those of Rhaegar or Aerys. What's missing is the jealous protection of the rights of the Great Houses to make their own marriage contracts and to have them respected by the Throne. These are all themes present in the main series and in the world book, but the author does not make the connections. And lastly, the author does not point out the importance of the actions of Brandon Stark in dishonoring Ashara before the closing ceremony. Something I think is vitally important and is a message to Rhaegar.

Why would the Starks react the way they do to the crowning? Because they have already made it clear they want nothing to do with Rhaegar's council, and they have their own plans for the future. Plans that Rhaegar tells them in his crowning of Lyanna he will stand with his father and prevent if they go ahead.

[Sly Wren]

23 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Oh I absolutely agree that Martin uses the imagery to plant a suggestion in the reader's mind.  The question is whether Martin is trying to subtly lead us to the correct or incorrect conclusion is very up in the air, in my opinion.

A very fair point. 

I do think that the fact that Martin keeps bringing up some version of the Bael Tale or a Bael figure in every single novel so far is a strong hint that he's pushing us away from Dany's take on the roses. Though in unfinished books, more context is clearly coming and thus no way to know for sure.

Though all that means is that you and I disagree with how up in the air the conclusion is at this point--which isn't much of a disagreement. 

[Sly Wren]

22 hours ago, SFDanny said:

What's missing is a critical part of the political context of the time. The existence of the STAB bloc and it own plans separate from those of Rhaegar or Aerys. What's missing is the jealous protection of the rights of the Great Houses to make their own marriage contracts and to have them respected by the Throne. These are all themes present in the main series and in the world book, but the author does not make the connections.

I completely agree that we're missing big pieces of the puzzle.

But I'm lapsing into bird-brain mode and am struggling to figure out what you're arguing with the bolded--so far, the Iron Throne only seems to have messed with Tywin's marriage plot, no? A VERY personal grudge match between those two. Are you thinking that the STAB alliance feared similar interference? Or something else that I'm missing in my bird-brained state?

22 hours ago, SFDanny said:

And lastly, the author does not point out the importance of the actions of Brandon Stark in dishonoring Ashara before the closing ceremony. Something I think is vitally important and is a message to Rhaegar.

Very possible--though Barristan's statements are vague enough that the above is still just a theory until we get more info. If Rhaegar is insulting the Starks via Lyanna to get at Brandon for Ashara--that could work. And insult to a Brandon via a female relative in response to the Brandon's insult to another? Fits the Bael Tale, too.

22 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Why would the Starks react the way they do to the crowning? Because they have already made it clear they want nothing to do with Rhaegar's council, and they have their own plans for the future. Plans that Rhaegar tells them in his crowning of Lyanna he will stand with his father and prevent if they go ahead.

On the unbolded--I agree that fits really well.

On the bolded--why do you think it says Rhaegar will stand with his father vs. just "I see you?" I like the idea that Rhaegar is playing both sides--fits with his tacit approval of Tywin's plan at Duskendale--Tywin and Rhaegar were both playing both sides there.

I'm liking this idea a lot. . . .but I can see it the other way--the "I see you and will out you" way, too.

[SFDanny]

3 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

I completely agree that we're missing big pieces of the puzzle.

I couldn't agree more, but I also think that with the unfolding of the story relative to the split between father and son, and the expansion of the information behind the STAB bloc (Southron ambitions, maester's conspiracy, etc.) we are beginning to see the broad outlines of the backstory.

I've argued since we only had clues like Rhaegar not being in King's Landing when Brandon calls for him to "come out and die" and when Aerys can't find Rhaegar after he exiles Merryweather all was not well between father and son. I've also argued that the fact we hear nothing of Brandon shouting for his sister's release speaks to possible other reasons for the Stark's anger at Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna and her kidnapping. Now we have much more to suggest this is the case.

3 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

But I'm lapsing into bird-brain mode and am struggling to figure out what you're arguing with the bolded--so far, the Iron Throne only seems to have messed with Tywin's marriage plot, no? A VERY personal grudge match between those two. Are you thinking that the STAB alliance feared similar interference? Or something else that I'm missing in my bird-brained state?

Two historical examples previous to Robert's Rebellion stand out. 

Quote

Whether anti-Targaryen feelings were made worse by Queen Rhaenys Targaryen's efforts to knit together the new, single realm with marriages between the great houses is left to the reader to consider. That Torrhen Stark's daughter was wed to the young and ill-fated Lord of the Vale is well known; it was one of the many peace-binding marriages forged by Rhaenys But there are letters preserved at the Citadel suggesting that Stark accepted these arrangements only after much protest, and that the bride's brothers refused to attend the wedding entirely. (TWoI&F 141) bold emphasis added

and

Quote

The love between Jenny of Oldstones ("with flowers in her hair") and Duncan, Prince of Dragonflies, is beloved of singers, storytellers, and young maids even to this day, but it caused great grief to Lord Lyonel's daughter and brought shame and dishonor to House Baratheon. So great was the wroth of the Laughing Storm that he swore a bloody oath of vengeance, renounced allegiance to the Iron Throne, and had himself crowned as a new Storm King. Peace was restored only after the Kingsguard knight Ser Duncan the Tall faced Lord Lyonel in a trial by battle, Prince Duncan renounced the claim to crown and throne, and King Aegon V agreed that his youngest daughter, the Princess Rhaelle, would wed Lord Lyonel's heir. (TWoI&F 230) bold emphasis added.

We can add to these examples ones we see in the main story, such as the Frey's reaction to Robb's marriage to Jeyne, Hoster's refusal to talk to his brother when he refuses to marry Bethany Redwyne, and Tywin's reaction when Tyrion marries Tysha without his consent. The theme that runs through all of these is the right of the High Lord to decide who his children will marry and the serious nature of the marriage compact. We even see where it has become custom for the unmarried siblings to be honor bound to fulfill these contracts (Ned Stark after Brandon dies)  if the sibling involved dies before the marriage takes place.

Now, with all this background, still too many readers only see the personal animosity towards Tywin of Aerys's naming of Jaime to the Kingsguard. Undoubtedly this is present, but the action itself is also an attack on Tywin's rights as a High Lord. Aerys gives Jaime the "honor" but by so doing he also cuts the tie of the Lannisters to the STAB bloc. It is an action aimed not only at Tywin, but also at Rickard's plans.

If one leaves all the above out, then Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna, is thought only as the actions of lovestruck prince, or one who lives in a world of prophecy and is unaware of the political ramifications of what he does. It makes no sense.

Rhaegar is a leader of minority political faction that grows and fights battles with both his father and the lickspittle lords of the council. And I would argue with Tywin as well when Tywin tries to use him for his own plots. He is described as a highly intelligent man, who understands the world around him. Why then does he crown Lyanna?

Because, when you add back in all of those pieces of the puzzle - the context of the political struggles - his action makes sense. Especially so, if Brandon is the man who dishonors Ashara. It is an action done in the same manner of his father - honor on the surface, with another purpose hidden underneath. The beauty of the roses with the thorns hidden by the flowers. It is a move his father understands, and it speaks directly to the long developed plans of the Starks for an alternative power bloc of High Lords to undermine Targaryen power..

3 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Very possible--though Barristan's statements are vague enough that the above is still just a theory until we get more info. If Rhaegar is insulting the Starks via Lyanna to get at Brandon for Ashara--that could work. And insult to a Brandon via a female relative in response to the Brandon's insult to another? Fits the Bael Tale, too.

Absolutely it is only a theory, but it has much to support it. Martin can change it all whenever he wants to, but with every book he lays out pieces of the puzzle that fill in more of the picture he has only hinted about, and I think we are getting to the place where some of this is coming clear.

The beauty of Martin's writing - to me, at least - is in the complex nature of his characters and his plots. So, none of this says there was no love between Rhaegar and Lyanna, or that Rhaegar wasn't pushed by his understanding of prophecy to do things in his life that those who don't know of that vision could not understand. It only means there is also a very complicated political struggle going on at the same time, and that in some of this story if that is not taken into account we lose what is really going on.

3 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

On the unbolded--I agree that fits really well.

On the bolded--why do you think it says Rhaegar will stand with his father vs. just "I see you?" I like the idea that Rhaegar is playing both sides--fits with his tacit approval of Tywin's plan at Duskendale--Tywin and Rhaegar were both playing both sides there.

I'm liking this idea a lot. . . .but I can see it the other way--the "I see you and will out you" way, too.

I think the message is meant to be seen by all - Aerys, the Starks and their allies, as well as Rhaegar's own - and it is meant to deal with the politics that confronts him at Harrenhal. That doesn't mean by publicly uniting with his father against the STAB bloc and their plans that there are no differences there after between father and son. In fact, I think that this status only lasts until the time of the "kidnapping" - if that long. If Rhaegar and Aerys agreed on the kidnapping of Lyanna to strike the next blow against the STAB bloc, then he would have brought Lyanna to King's Landing to be held as hostage to the bloc's future good behavior. He does not, and there is no indication that Aerys even finds out where his son is until some time months later after the Battle of the Bells. So, what I'm arguing for is not an understanding of this as a two sided competition, but rather a multi-sided political struggle in which alliances change. Rhaegar plays his own side. Sometimes that is in concert with his father, and many times he is not.

[Lord Wraith]

On 1/27/2017 at 6:07 AM, Macgregor of the North said:

On Steffon and Aerys I feel we have plenty to go on. As Lads before the WOT9PK Aerys, Tywin and Steffon were inseparable at Kings Landing. Aerys and Steffons relationship never suffered like Aerys and Tywins did by all accounts and they remained very tight until Steffons death in all records on the matter. 

Its even strongly suspected that when Aerys recalled Steffon to KL to take a seat on the council it was with a view to naming him as hand after he stripped Tywin of the office. 

I think Aerys and Steffons solidity is not worth looking at really. Them boys were tight cousins. So any STAB power bloc stuff that begun against Aerys after the WOT9PK, I'm personally quite sure that it was without Steffons involvement. 

For reference:

WOT9PK - 260AC

Steffoms death - 278AC. 

Theres no hint anywhere Steffon has any part of any plots against Aerys in between those times.

Feel free to elaborate on Cressens involvement though, at the OP's blessing of course. The maesters are involved somewhere in all this. 

I always figure Robert was unknowingly a part of Southern Ambitions. I keep wondering who decided on the fostering because I don't  think it was Steffan. 

[Macgregor of the North]

On 29/01/2017 at 1:09 AM, Lord Wraith said:

I always figure Robert was unknowingly a part of Southern Ambitions. I keep wondering who decided on the fostering because I don't  think it was Steffan. 

At time of Tourney (281AC) Robert had been Lord a few years so could have had some knowledge of any plot of Rickards, Hosters and Jon's I suppose. He was entitled to be told of any grand schemes being the head of House Baratheon but I'm not sure he was that involved with any massive schemes. He seemed like he just wanted to bludgeon people in Tourney melee's, drink and marry Lyanna.

He had no desire to be a King at time of Tourney in any event. As to his fostering at the Vale. I hoped for a clue from Cressen but to my knowledge there is no mention of it from him that can gives us any clues to his involvement. 

Steffons accident and death is way in the future at time of fostering (probably around 270/1AC) so he had to at least ok the arrangement, even if it was an idea presented to him by someone else, like Cressen, or perhaps Jon. Like I said though I haven't found anything that shows Cressen played any huge part in the fostering deal, although he could have.

Steffon obviously had no issue with it and packed Robert off but I'm quite sure it wasn't because he was part of some secret alliance and plot against Aerys.

And the marriage betrothal of Robert and Lyanna, im quite certain Steffon played no part in that at all. 

So to back up what your saying, if there were any really grand schemes, Robert does seem to have been in the dark on some of the details perhaps, as was his father.

[SFDanny]

6 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

I hoped for a clue from Cressen but to my knowledge there is no mention of it from him that can gives us any clues to his involvement. 

Steffons accident and death is way in the future at time of fostering (probably around 270/1AC) so he had to at least ok the arrangement, even if it was an idea presented to him by someone else, like Cressen, or perhaps Jon. Like I said though I haven't found anything that shows Cressen played any huge part in the fostering deal, although he could have.

We are all the hero of our own tale. When you get to read a chapter from a character's point of view it is critical to remember that maxim. So, when we read the prologue of A Clash of Kings and see old Maester Cressen give his life in order to protect his beloved Stannis from the influence of the evil sorceress Melisandre, it is a mistake, in my opinion, to take his story at face value. That does not mean we can learn nothing from his chapter. Far from it. We learn Cressen's motive for trying to kill the foreign interloper into Stannis's council.

Quote

"I will speak her name," Cressen told his stone hellhound. "Melisandre. Her." Melisandre of Asshai, sorceress, shadowbinder, and priestess to R'hllor, the Lord of Light, the Heart of Fire, the God of Flame and Shadow. Melisandre, whose madness must not be allowed to spread beyond Dragonstone. (ACoK 15) bold emphasis added

What then is this madness that must be stopped at the cost of Cressen's own life?

Quote

Such folly. He leaned against the battlement, the sea crashing beneath him, the black stone rough beneath his fingers. Talking gargoyles and prophecies in the sky. I am an old done man, grown giddy as a child again. Had a lifetime's hard-won wisdom fled him along with his health and strength? He was a maester, trained and chained in the great Citadel of Oldtown. What had he come to, when superstition filled his head as if he were an ignorant field hand? (ACoK 1-2) bold emphasis added

Prophecies tied to Daenerys's comet.

Quote

"What about the thing in the sky? Dallas and Matrice were talking by the well, and Dalla said she heard the red woman tell Mother that it was dragonsbreath. If the dragons are breathing, doesn't that mean they are coming to life?"

The red woman. Maester Cressen thought sourly. Ill enough that she's filled the head of the mother with her madness, must she poison the daughter's dreams as well? He would have a stern word with Dalla, warn her not to spread such tales. "The thing in the sky is a comet, sweet child. A star with a tail, lost in the heavens. It will be gone soon enough, never to be seen again in our lifetimes. Watch and see. (ACoK 4) bold emphasis

Dragon's breath in the sky and dragons coming back to life?

Quote

As he sank to his knees, still he shook his head, denying her, denying her power, denying her magic, denying her god. (ACoK 21) bold emphasis added

Maester Cressen dies trying to stopped Melisandre and her madness of magic, prophecy, and dragons reborn. But it is important to remember that he not only gives his life in order to do so, but he is also willing to kill her to stop her. Where do we hear of this same view and willingness to kill to stop these same things? From Archmaester Marwyn in Samwell's final chapter, two books later.

Quote

"Aemon would have gone to her if he had the strength. He wanted us to send a maester to her, to counsel her and protect her and fetch her safely home."

"Did he?" Archmaester Marwyn shrugged. "Perhaps it's good that he died before he got to Oldtown. Elsewise the grey sheep might have had to kill him, and that would have made the poor old dears wring their wrinkled hands."

"Kill him?" Sam said, shocked. "Why?"

"If I tell you, they may need to kill you too." Marwyn smiled a ghastly smile, the juice of the sourleaf running red between his teeth. "Who do you think killed all the dragons the last time around? Gallant dragons slayers armed with swords?" He spat. "The world the Citadel is building has no place in it for sorcery or prophecy or glass candles, much less for dragons. Ask yourself why Aemon Targaryen was allowed to waste his life upon the Wall, when by rights he should have been raised to archmaester. His blood is why. He could not be trusted. No more than I can." (AFfC 683) bold emphasis added.

 and,

Quote

"B-b-but," Sam sputtered, "the other archmaesters ... the Seneschal ... what should I tell them?

"Tell them how wise and good they are. Tell them that Aemon commanded you to put yourself into their hands. Tell them that you have always dreamed that one day you might be allowed to wear the chain and serve the greater good, that service is the highest honor, and obedience the highest virtue. But say nothing of prophecies or dragons, unless you fancy poison in your porridge." (AFfC 683) bold emphasis added

It is like Martin to give us a prime example of the maester's conspiracy before he tells us it exists. It would be too easy for the reader to spot if he reversed the order. Indeed, when we read Marwyn warning Sam not to talk of magic, prophecy, and dragons lest he have poison put in his breakfast, some do not easily remember the detailed example of a maester who commits the exact crime, excepting wine instead of  porridge, which Marwyn predicts. So, is it a coincidence? Nonsense.

Cressen is the most likely candidate for a member of the maester's conspiracy that exists in the series, and what does that tell us about his role in furthering the goals of the STAB bloc? A political bloc formed not only of Rickard Stark's political ambitions, but through the plans in which the Maester of Winterfell, Walys, is said to have played a critical role in developing? Goals which converge in the need to do away with the Targaryens. 

I think it means we have to pay attention to not only the designs of the High Lords of the STAB bloc in understanding its goals, but that it would be stupid to ignore the role of each Lord's maester in fostering this plot. To me, at least, it makes one want to know more about Maesters Walys, Cressen, Kym, and whoever held that post in the Vale, and the Rock, at the same time.