Blue roses, Southron Ambitions, and the machinations of a mad king

[TheSeason]

20 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

The "STAB" acronym was my invention, but I'm glad to see it has caught on. TABS and BATS work too, but not quite as well, especially the former. Though the latter has the benefit of a coincidental connection to HH, where the reigning lords featured a bat on their sigil.

I like a lot of @SFDanny's thoughts in this thread. However, I disagree that STAB intended to dissolve the Seven Kingdoms into seven kingdoms. And I think @Macgregor of the North provided a strong argument against Danny's case here, by pointing out that STAB kept the 7K united after winning the rebellion. Of course, it's possible that things had changed, and Danny's arguments do make sense.

Ah, so sorry! She used it so much it stuck in my head! :} It is a great one....

As far as things changing... I think that's exactly what happened. I'm not certain if the 7k were meant to be completely dissolved instead of becoming more.... a federation of loosely aligned states sort of set-up (where the High Lords form, maybe, a High Council and there is no need for overlordship from the Iron Throne by any one house. However, the thing that changed is the brutal deaths of Rickard and Brandon Stark, the Arryn heir, et al. Suddenly, the STAB bloc was handed the moral high ground on a silver platter and that mattered to the new young leaders of the STAB bloc (Ned, Robert) after they had eaten up the "as high as honor" nonsense Jon Arryn was spewing out (without actually living it himself).

I don't think either of them were fully aware of what that power bloc really was up to--treason--and Jon Arryn couldn't tell them "yes, Aerys II really isn't all that mad. We've involved you all in treason, and now he wants your heads. Let's continue our plan to overthrow the Targs. Aren't they just demonspawn? Always causing trouble. What do they know of honor?!"  The truth might have broken the alliance at a crucial moment of its formation.

Your idea about keeping a nominal king on the Iron Throne is another option I'd considered as well. That works well with the confusion leading up to the Trident, but again begs the same question... why change the plan? Aerys and Rhaegar both had to die, yes. Viserys, Aegon, or better yet Rhaenys would have been acceptable solutions, all. Even Robert is an acceptable solution for the STAB bloc. Why continue to limit the High Lords power and authority by swearing Robert the same oaths of fealty sworn to Aerys II? Certainly, Tywin Lannister's grudge-fueled vengeance against House Targaryen might have thrown a monkey wrench into the gears, but that was at King's Landing, and the Trident is when the rebels decided to claim the throne in Robert's name. Even then, limiting the power of the Iron Throne itself was still a feasible option. Especially considering, the bonds that permitted the current generation to exert power through Robert I need not (and did not) extend past this current generation to their descendants. So, now the High Lords find themselves in the same frustrated position as before--and even more so, considering the mess their chosen king has left behind! A Lannister usurpation of the throne served none of the STAB bloc, and this problem (a possible foe to their descendants/Houses on the Iron Throne) was entirely foreseeable.

I always come back to the conclusion that there's a significant piece of information regarding this decision that we're missing.

17 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

do you guys think Rhaegar was a man who had a mind for politics more than Prophecy in his overall actions?.

Do you mind if I jump in?

I think part of the problem with our understanding of Rhaegar is a lack of information. When he's mentioned, he's often mentioned in association with one or two themes for narrative necessity. Martin wants to drive into our minds the significance of these plot points, but he doesn't want to mention him when unnecessary (perhaps also for narrative necessity, as the mystery and suspense twine back into the theme to strengthen its foundations), so we end up getting a confusing or even somewhat bizarre picture of the man. At times he almost seems inhuman. D-:

It's the reason our impressions of him vary so much from person to person, as one theme impresses more sharply upon one person and another person is more impressed by the other.

For me, Rhaegar's melancholy is a factor of paramount significance, so it colors my understanding of the character. The theme is repeated with his son, Jon Snow, so I see parallels between them that further influence my interpretation. Even R+L's feelings for each other color my interpretation. Ironically, prophecy... not so much. At least, not the way that you've argued. So, let me explain:

Rhaegar, likely due to his depressive disposition, is a man who did things of necessity. Ser Barristan's story of how he decided to become a knight highlights this character trait. Rhaegar read something that convinced him he had a need, and so he determined to satisfy that need, and did so admirably. (I've read an argument before that what he read was the story of Daeron II and the Blackfyre Rebellion, and I find it quite compelling. The age Rhaegar would have been to take sudden interest in becoming a warrior and yet have sufficient time to train to excellence suggests he was quite young indeed, so I've always been hesitant to assign this change to the force of prophecy.) Other behaviors hint at this "need-based" mindset in application as well. The marriage to Elia Martell. The willingness to seek Tywin Lannister's aid prior to the Trident, despite the concessions his family needs must make to him in answer. The reluctance to remove his father, and yet allowing others to persuade him to do just that. In each of these situations, there is a pressing need, and Rhaegar moves to satisfy it despite his personal feelings on the matter.

I believe he was clinically depressed for long periods in his life, but motivated himself to do at least what was required in any given situation. For someone as depressed as he appears to have been, just getting out of bed every day can be an ordeal. But due his status as crown prince, he had no choice but to face the day, most especially because there was no one else responsible in his family. Aerys II was at least erratic (if not outright mad in his son's mind; JonCon tells us it took Rhaegar a long time to accept this) and Rhaella was abused and overwhelmed, hiding away from her brother-husband/abuser, with no personal power let alone significant political power. This would have given Rhaegar a strong independent streak, I think, as he would have had to rely primarily on himself even from a young age. At least, we aren't told any authority figures he could depend upon in his life, and I think this is a important factor in his development that seems to be sometimes overlooked in discussion.

There are many hints that make me think Rhaegar was suffering moderate-severe depression for most of his life. The isolation is one sign, beginning even in early childhood, but extending into his adult life. Rhaegar seems to have had one or two close friends, all his inferiors. Barristan tells us "no man truly knew Prince Rhaegar" and that "he took no interest in the play of other children." We're also told that Arthur Dayne (his sworn sword!) was his closest confidante, and given the impression Oswell Whent (another sworn sword!) might have been his next closest friend. Jon Connington does not appear to be as close to Rhaegar as he hoped, and Kevan Lannister confirms this for us (suggesting he was an aggressive hanger-on or lackey). The other two companions we know he kept were both his squires (Mooton, Lonmouth--who, I believe, betrayed his trust for Robert, a drinking buddy). The HotU suggests Rhaegar may have confided somewhat in Elia Martell as well, in addition to his other sworn sword (Llewyn Martell, his wife's uncle). Elia is the closest in this list to an actual peer. This kind of isolation is not healthy.

In addition to isolation, I believe we are given hints that Rhaegar showed little to no interest in romance for most of his life. We're told of no sexual partners and Ned's private thoughts suggest that Rhaegar was not the type to frequent brothels. We're told of two people (at least) who had unrequited feelings for him (in Cersei and JonCon; Elia and Lyanna are other possibilities.) but we're not told of anyone (barring possibly Lyanna) that Rhaegar himself loved or desired. We're further told that Rhaegar knew the day that Aegon was conceived (that is, he knew the day that he bedded Elia and that there was no possibility he could have been conceived say two nights before or three nights after... suggesting that his sexual encounters with his wife were few and far between. Her health would have been a contributing factor to this, no doubt, but there were times she was perfectly healthy and able to go to bed with her husband). All of this taken together, I think, suggests that Rhaegar suffered either from low libido or even impotence, which can be symptomatic of depression. Now, that is not to say that Rhaegar was not virile. He obviously was. We know for certain of three times he had sex, and each time a child resulted from the union.

Lyanna is, I believe, the first time that Rhaegar experienced real sexual desire and real love. He's pretty old, at least for the former, but they would have had the same effect upon him (experiencing these feelings for the first time in his life) as they would upon a teenager undergoing the same (Jon's experiences with Ygritte are a perfect parallel to how I think Rhaegar felt about Lyanna: confused, torn, pulled in two different directions, muddled loyalties, surprised by his own libido and romantic interest, somewhat ashamed, etc.). We are told that he did not have these experiences with Elia, of whom Barristan says, he was "fond." (Fondness is not a bad thing in an arranged marriage, mind, but it suggests that Rhaegar was innocent to certain desires and needs that can have a significant effect upon the psyche, most especially the first time around). I think he would have been surprised by his own actions at times, due to his feelings for Lyanna. As Jaime says, "The things I do for love!"

That is not to suggest, either, that I think love came first for them. I don't believe Rhaegar was the type to fall in love at first sight. I think these feelings build up gradually as they spent time with each other, and shocked him utterly. I imagine he was "fond" of Lyanna upon meeting her at the Tourney of Harrenhal (due KotLT), and enjoyed her company. I think she was more taken with him at this time (as Ygritte was of Jon). I don't think love came along until after the absconding. I think Martin hints that sex came first by proxy of Jon and Ygritte (he wonders if his father felt the same confusion and torn loyalties when he bedded his mother and made a bastard, and this paints a clear picture of how it really happened). Love came after. Marriage in front of a weirwood may or may not have come (I think so--I think he wanted his child to be legitimate for several reasons, even including prophecy, but none more strongly than for love of mother and child, and not wanting to besmirch their, or his own, honor any further. Robb and Jeyne are, to me, a strong parallel to this event. I think Rhaegar was as opposed to fathering a bastard as Jon is, and imagine Lyanna would have felt just as strongly about her predicament. As an avid reader, perhaps the aversion began with reading about Aegon the Unworthy and the Blackfyre Rebellions, but I do believe Rhaegar had a strong sense of honor, like his closest companions, Dayne and Whent are suggested to.).

Another factor in his depression would have been this prophecy that hung over him his whole life. This is where I disagree most strongly with the interpretation that Rhaegar was prophecy obsessed to the point of obliviousness to his surroundings or bad behavior, or even madness. This prophecy controlled his life (and that of his parents) since before he was born, and soon he came to understand it would hang over his son's life as well. I don't imagine he was happy to have been ruled by this prophecy. And I think his connection to Summerhall emphasizes this displeasure with the prophecy. Barristan tells us that Rhaegar was overwhelmed with a "sense of doom." That the tragedy of Summerhall haunted him. That his songs, written there, were all about "twilights and tears and the deaths of kings" and that "you could not help but feel he was singing about himself and those he loved". That doesn't sound like something that he would have been eager to have unfold. This prophecy clearly speaks a personal ruin to Rhaegar.

And with such a dire threat hanging over his head (and that of his children, later), it only makes sense that a dutiful man would show an interest in understanding it, perhaps in hopes to thwart it. The prophecy obviates a need, and Rhaegar shows an interest in order to satisfy that need.

Certainly, trying to actively avoid the doom of the prophecy could drive him in a similar manner as Cersei (ironically causing the prophecy to happen) but so far I haven't seen that level of erratic and self-destructive behavior from Rhaegar. I see a need-based interest, but not prophecy-obsession and not delusion. It's a fine line, and I don't think he walked it perfectly, but I do think he did miles better than Cersei (so far, more information could always change my mind on that end). Prophecy certainly weighed heavily on him, haunted him, even, but I don't see that he, like Mel, actively tried to make a prophecy come true, or, like Cersei, actively tried to thwart it, but more like Jojen/Bran showed a more passive interest in understanding what was happening to him (or would happen to his child) so he could prepare to meet the challenges ahead. I hope that's clear, I know it's not a perfect parallel.

As I don't think Rhaegar was particularly "prophecy-driven," I also don't think he was a gleeful political animal. It was another thing he had to do, another need he had to satisfy. And, of course, he had to show an interest in politics simply because, by virtue of his birth and the political climate, his status demanded it. He was the crown prince. He was going to become king someday. Perhaps someday sooner than he would have liked, considering Aerys II's "madness" and the feud with Tywin and the STAB bloc, etc. His closest companions were all pressing upon him to be active. His father suspected him--even going so far as to take his family hostage during the Rebellion!--and actively tried to undermine his authority. Half the country wanted to overthrow his family.

What kind of man would he be if these pressing needs didn't motivate him to become politically astute and politically active? King Robert Baratheon. Who is pretty much the antithesis of Rhaegar. He's irresponsible and selfish where Rhaegar is responsible and dutiful. He's happy to be blissfully ignorant where Rhaegar actively seeks to understand. He lets corruption fester in his court where Rhaegar resolves to do something about it. He spends money frivolously where Rhaegar is hinted to have spent his money on the tourney only to find a solution to the problems at hand, but otherwise we are given no indication that Rhaegar was interested in frivolous things. He gloried in violence to solve his problems where Rhaegar struggled to find a peaceful solution (even unto trying to organize a peaceful coup!). 

The circumstances into which he was born required that he be politically active. And as far as we know, Rhaegar was always cognizant of his duty and attempted to meet it adequately, if not par excellence.

 

@Illyrio Mo'Parties (sorry, something's up with the quote function)

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There's a lot we don't know about the etiquette of the Queen of Love and Beauty thing, but I think it's possible there's something more going on with the Harrenhal crowning. As far as we know, everybody took it as an insult - but what's the insult?

Good question! I've wondered this myself... I too believe that Robert laughed it off as "her due" and Yandel was simply simpering to the current powers that be.

As far as we know, Tywin wasn't insulted when Cersei was crowned QoLaB. Nor was Leyton Hightower offended when Lynesse was crowned--nor was he offended when Jorah (a minor lord from the North) proposed his youngest daughter marriage on the wings of his win (Leyton seems to understand, unlike Walder Frey, that because he has so many children he cannot expect advantageous matches for all of them, but is happy to have them paired off and taken care of at all; I wonder if he even warned Lynesse that her lifestyle would be changing, but the spoilt brat just didn't comprehend the severity of it... but that is neither here nor there, I suppose). Barristan (barred from wedding) hoped to crown Ashara Dayne and possibly would have confessed himself, like Jorah, but seems to have expected no insult to come of it. And there's Aemon the Dragonknight crowning Queen Naerys. I suppose there was some scandal there, but more due to Aegon the Unworthy and his... unworthiness, always causing trouble. Otherwise, the winner would have crowned Aegon Unworthy's mistress, instead of his queen--and that would have been a tremendous insult, yes.

But Lyanna was not Rhaegar's mistress. As far as we know, there was no rumor that she was, which would seem to be confirmed. But aside from Cersei, the sentiment above seems to be a confession or intimation of romantic interest in the crowning (or hoped-for crowning) of QoLaB. I wonder if this connotation came about with Aegon the Unworthy crowning his mistresses instead of his queen?

Ned wasn't insulted when Loras gave Sansa a red rose to curry his favor (but that also wasn't the QoLaB laurel; I wonder why Martin avoided the Hound crowning Sansa QoLaB when he won the tourney of the Hand. That might have cleared a few things up for us on this front).

The other trend I've noticed is that the winners of the tourney who crown a QoLaB all seem to be single men... The major exception appears to be Aemon the Dragonknight crowning Naerys to thwart any other winner crowning Aegon's mistress. We've yet to hear about married men crowning QoLaBs.

And not every tourney seems to have a QoLaB either! That's the curious thing. The Tourney of the Hand lacked a QoLaB for either the opening ceremony (surely Cersei or Myrcella) or the closing ceremony (Sansa or Arya, it being the Hand's tourney). The tourneys of Storm's End lack QoLaB's (the one Barriston won, I think, no QoLaB mentioned) and the tourney of Blackhaven (when he earned "the bold" epitaph--would Jenny of Oldstones, perhaps have been QoLaB there, since Prince Duncan was present?). There's no QoLaB for Joffrey's Nameday tourneys either (the first we have no info on, the second we witnessed, but neither Cersei, Myrcella, nor Sansa were crowned there either). Nor do we have a QoLaB (Margaery) for the Tourney at Bitterbridge when we come upon Renly. Nor do we have a QoLaB (Cersei) for the tourney at Lannisport (when Robert fathered the twins).

This is really strange to me. Most tourneys seem to lack a QoLaB. So, what makes a tourney worthy of a QoLaB ceremony?

The only other connection between the QoLaBs is politics. It seems the QoLaB ceremony has becoming a propaganda ceremony!

We have Cersei crowned QoLaB at the Tourney in honor of Prince Viserys's birth (Tywin wants to betroth her to Prince Rhaegar). We have Lynesse crowned QoLaB at the Tourney in celebration of the victory over the Iron Born (where newly knighted war hero Jorah wins the tourney and his bride) shortly after defeated king Balon is forced to give Theon to Ned Stark as ward. This tourney seems to flaunt once more the power of Bobby B to crush his enemies on the back of the STABL alliance (aha stable!) lest anyone else get any ideas about rebelling (Martells), which could be why it was held in Oldtown and wouldn't you know it, there's a marriage between two far-flung Houses (Hightower, Mormont) that echo the original unions forming the STABL bloc. Then there's the tourney of the Mystery Knight, where Aemon the Dragonknight sends Aegon the Unworthy a message that he's in Naerys's corner, that the queen is the queen, and his mistress isn't going to usurp her place at court. There may be some other political message here that I'm unaware of (I've only read the series so far, no extended material). Then there's the tourney at Harrenhal, when Rhaegar was attempting to call a great council, and three warring factions clashed (with the Targs sending a message to two different foes--Tywin, Rickard Stark--with the opening and closing ceremonies--Jaime's investiture, Lyanna's crowning).

With this pattern in mind, it really seems to me that Martin missed the ball by not having Margaery crowned QoLaB when Renly was flaunting his power at the Tourney at Bitterbridge. This would have cemented the pattern, that the QoLaB is a not a status symbol, but a political symbol, a powerful message. We sort of have something similar happening with Loras giving Sansa a red rose to curry her father's favor for his plot (on a smaller scale because the Tyrell plot was itself on a smaller scale, perhaps?).

When there's no political machinations going on, there's no QoLaB.

 

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In that connection, I wonder if somehow the Stark who Ashara Dayne had "looked to" in Barristan's recollection might've been Lyanna.

Interesting thought! I've never considered this. Will have to think about this some more. Thanks! :-)

@SFDanny

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I think to understand what happens at Harrenhal one has to understand the politics in play involving many factions. The first action is Aerys's swearing-in of Jaime to the sworn brotherhood of the Kingsguard. Seen by the uninformed as just the great honor done to a young knight by making him the youngest member ever of the Kingsguard, it is much more than that. It starts with using Cersei to seduce Jaime into accepting the King's summons to this service, accomplishes getting Tywin to surrender his office of Hand to the king, and pays back Tywin's hubris by depriving him of his heir. All of this alone would be a master stroke of political intrigue, but it accomplishes one other vital goal of Aerys; it stops the marriage of Jaime to Lysa and the Lannister entry into the STAB bloc. By doing all this in a way that honors Jaime and makes it impossible for his political foes to object it shows the political mind behind the plan to be a master at political in-fighting. Here I don't want to debate if that is to the credit of Aerys or Varys or someone else. But this is the act that is celebrated and consummated at the start of Harrenhal, and to understand what happens there, this first must be understood.

I've long been wondering just how much Cersei was the mastermind behind Jaime's investiture. It more seems to me that someone gave her the idea--for their own means, of course--and she merely presented it as if it were her own.

Cersei has never been subtle or politically savvy. She's manipulative, true, but not on the right scale (she can manipulate Jaime, mostly, and sometimes Robert.) Her attempts to manipulate others on a political scale always backfire in her face (the HS might be the biggest example of this, Taena Merryweather another). She's more confident of her abilities than rightly she should be. And in the early books (Game, Clash, Storm) she actually has extremely limited power. It isn't until Feast that she's able to be as active as she's always wanted (and fails miserably). So, I can't help but wonder if Aerys II or Varys (on his behalf) tricked her into doing something incredibly foolish whilst letting her think it was always her idea.

However, the one thing that keeps giving me pause is that Aerys II or Varys--to use Cersei in this manner--would have to understand perfectly the nature of her relationship with her brother. Otherwise, why would they think she could seduce him to give up Casterly Rock?

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This alliance is not, I believe, in the pre-rebellion years designed for war. They are designed to build the bloc to the point they can renounce their oaths of fealty  and rule themselves, not as a military bloc to overthrow the Targaryens. It becomes that, no doubt, in response to Aerys's actions because he leaves them no choice but submit to his orders or die. In some cases to submit to his orders AND die.

Excellent point.

However, I do find myself shocked a little bit at the naivety of scheming to overthrow the Targaryens with their power bloc and yet not preparing for the usurpation to come to war!

@J. Stargaryen detailed nicely how their alliance was not strong enough without the Lannisters to peaceably renounce their oaths to the Iron Throne, or even to overthrow the Targs with violence (it coming down to chance on the Trident--and, I've never been happy with this plot point either, as Rhaegar 1. seemed like someone who'd lead from the rear, the exact opposite of Robert, and 2. should have been guarded by an extensive honor guard otherwise, not only including the Kingsguard and his squires, but many more loyal lords and knights, and 3. should never have come into contact with Robert in the first place. It just seems silly.).

Then, there were other factors that I don't think their alliance planned for either. I think the Ironborn would have stabbed them in the rear the moment they tangled with the Targs, or shortly thereafter (this sentiment was building in the Iron Isles for a long time). I think the Riverlands, lacking natural defenses, were ripe for chaos and would have been the first to fall if the Targs retaliated with the full strength of their alliance behind competent leadership, and the Stormlands were perfectly placed for devastating embargoes. They would have fallen swiftly too. Who would have fed them? If the Targs retained superiority of the Narrow Sea, at least to the south, I don't see how the Stormlands could have lasted as part of the STAB bloc, or even the STABL bloc, surrounded by foes. [This is probably another indication that Steffon Baratheon was not the brains behind joining this alliance.] Hoster would have had to rely upon his neighbors and in-laws for defense (which is utter madness, I think) but despite being wed to the Starks, what neighbors could the Stormlords rely upon for their defense? The Vale? Do they have a strong enough fleet to challenge the Targs for dominion of the (southern) Narrow Sea? And a sufficient fleet is the other thing the STABers lack. They hoped the Lannisters would provide one (at least for the west coast) and the Arryns another (for the east--though I think they would have been defeated by the royal fleet and/or the redwyne fleet), but the Lannisters had lost Jaime to the Targs.

The STAB alliance just doesn't seem all that viable to me, at least not long term. And I could swiftly see them falling into in-fighting, anyway. The bonds between these houses were too new and too untested (they were fortunate to have an external foe in the Targs, but success could change things--and it did--for the worse).

[Macgregor of the North]

@SFDanny I have found myself with a reignited interest in Rhaegar which for some reason has led me to begin writing a piece that stretches back to his birth at Summerhall. For this reason I will not write long drawn out responses anymore as im busy with that and I'm quite sure we will always come to different conclusions on why Rhaegar crowned Lyanna, and that's cool with me mate. I agree with certain views you have but I dont believe Rhaegar crowned Lyanna as a political threat message with Lyanna as the tool, to show the STAB power bloc he was united with his father against them. Just don't see it, but that's no big deal, we all read the books differently. 

@TheSeason I disagree with you on this

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I think part of the problem with our understanding of Rhaegar is a lack of information.

I feel quite the opposite, with all the information we have on him, quite alot actually, I think this man is driven by Prophecy and has been his whole life since he read those scrolls. His life's work has been trying to understand the Prince that was promised Prophecy and also (possibly stupidly) trying to force it to come true through himself and his children, and his actions in the story reflect this. 

Like I said though guys, we can't all interpret the books the same. It would be boring then.

[SFDanny]

2 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@SFDanny I have found myself with a reignited interest in Rhaegar which for some reason has led me to begin writing a piece that stretches back to his birth at Summerhall. For this reason I will not write long drawn out responses anymore as im busy with that and I'm quite sure we will always come to different conclusions on why Rhaegar crowned Lyanna, and that's cool with me mate. I agree with certain views you have but I dont believe Rhaegar crowned Lyanna as a political threat message with Lyanna as the tool, to show the STAB power bloc he was united with his father against them. Just don't see it, but that's no big deal, we all read the books differently.

Of course. All good.

[Sly Wren]

On January 28, 2017 at 4:18 PM, SFDanny said:

I've argued since we only had clues like Rhaegar not being in King's Landing when Brandon calls for him to "come out and die" and when Aerys can't find Rhaegar after he exiles Merryweather all was not well between father and son. I've also argued that the fact we hear nothing of Brandon shouting for his sister's release speaks to possible other reasons for the Stark's anger at Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna and her kidnapping. Now we have much more to suggest this is the case.

Agreed.

On January 28, 2017 at 4:18 PM, SFDanny said:

Rhaegar is a leader of minority political faction that grows and fights battles with both his father and the lickspittle lords of the council. And I would argue with Tywin as well when Tywin tries to use him for his own plots. He is described as a highly intelligent man, who understands the world around him. Why then does he crown Lyanna?

Because, when you add back in all of those pieces of the puzzle - the context of the political struggles - his action makes sense. Especially so, if Brandon is the man who dishonors Ashara. It is an action done in the same manner of his father - honor on the surface, with another purpose hidden underneath. The beauty of the roses with the thorns hidden by the flowers. It is a move his father understands, and it speaks directly to the long developed plans of the Starks for an alternative power bloc of High Lords to undermine Targaryen power..

 

On January 28, 2017 at 4:18 PM, SFDanny said:

I think the message is meant to be seen by all - Aerys, the Starks and their allies, as well as Rhaegar's own - and it is meant to deal with the politics that confronts him at Harrenhal. That doesn't mean by publicly uniting with his father against the STAB bloc and their plans that there are no differences there after between father and son. In fact, I think that this status only lasts until the time of the "kidnapping" - if that long. If Rhaegar and Aerys agreed on the kidnapping of Lyanna to strike the next blow against the STAB bloc, then he would have brought Lyanna to King's Landing to be held as hostage to the bloc's future good behavior. He does not, and there is no indication that Aerys even finds out where his son is until some time months later after the Battle of the Bells. So, what I'm arguing for is not an understanding of this as a two sided competition, but rather a multi-sided political struggle in which alliances change. Rhaegar plays his own side. Sometimes that is in concert with his father, and many times he is not.

Agreed--though I do think Lyanna's disappearance is also tied to Tywin--that's who Rhaegar may be tied up with at that point.

As for the bolded--one way or another, Rhaegar's playing against his father and has been at least since Duskendale. How he plays the side--on that, I agree he's likely to be very cagey and careful. 

I do think he was working with Tywin--but after all he's seen at King's Landing and with Castamere, he'd be a fool not to have contingency plans against Tywin. Just as Tywin seems to have had contingency plans in the war, too.

[SFDanny]

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed--though I do think Lyanna's disappearance is also tied to Tywin--that's who Rhaegar may be tied up with at that point.

Here we sadly disagree. If I remember correctly you also think Rhaegar wasn't involved in Lyanna's disappearance, right? I think on this we must continue to disagree.

It is not that I can't see Tywin trying to make some alliance with Rhaegar. It's that the surest way to get Viserys proclaimed the new heir would seem to be for word of such an alliance to get to Aerys's ear. Young Rhaegar must have had every incentive to keep out of the snares Tywin would try to set for him, to bring the prince closer. After the kidnapping, when Rhaegar comes north from the Tower of Joy, he would have every opportunity and motive to proclaim his innocence in the kidnapping, but he doesn't. And all evidence points to Lyanna dying at the tower where Rhaegar left his Kingsguard. So, no we must disagree on this part. But I'm very happy to see there are elements we agree on.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

As for the bolded--one way or another, Rhaegar's playing against his father and has been at least since Duskendale. How he plays the side--on that, I agree he's likely to be very cagey and careful.

Lord Connington tells Young Griff,

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"Not every man is what he seems, and a prince especially has good cause to be wary ... but go too far down that road, and the mistrust can poison you, make you sour and fearful." King Aerys was one such. By the end, even Rhaegar saw that plain enough. (ADwD 309) bold emphasis added

with Connington's private thoughts italicized. I think this points to Rhaegar holding on to delusions, or, perhaps, better called "hopes," of his father until late. By Harrenhal he is trying to peacefully and legally remove him from the throne. All of which tells me he isn't part of a plot to kill Aerys at Duskendale. Tywin, yes; Rhaegar, I think no.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

I do think he was working with Tywin--but after all he's seen at King's Landing and with Castamere, he'd be a fool not to have contingency plans against Tywin. Just as Tywin seems to have had contingency plans in the war, too.

I think for all the above reasons, Rhaegar was not working with Tywin to oust his father, but would have accepted his help at Harrenhal had he attended, and had Aerys not. Rhaegar certainly knows that once the rebellion is in full swing it behoves his father to try to win Tywin back to the loyalist side. I would be surprised if he doesn't suggest a marriage of Viserys to Cersei.

[SFDanny]

On 1/31/2017 at 6:11 PM, TheSeason said:

 

@SFDanny

I've long been wondering just how much Cersei was the mastermind behind Jaime's investiture. It more seems to me that someone gave her the idea--for their own means, of course--and she merely presented it as if it were her own.

Cersei has never been subtle or politically savvy. She's manipulative, true, but not on the right scale (she can manipulate Jaime, mostly, and sometimes Robert.) Her attempts to manipulate others on a political scale always backfire in her face (the HS might be the biggest example of this, Taena Merryweather another). She's more confident of her abilities than rightly she should be. And in the early books (Game, Clash, Storm) she actually has extremely limited power. It isn't until Feast that she's able to be as active as she's always wanted (and fails miserably). So, I can't help but wonder if Aerys II or Varys (on his behalf) tricked her into doing something incredibly foolish whilst letting her think it was always her idea.

However, the one thing that keeps giving me pause is that Aerys II or Varys--to use Cersei in this manner--would have to understand perfectly the nature of her relationship with her brother. Otherwise, why would they think she could seduce him to give up Casterly Rock?

Cersei thinks she comes up with the plan to put her brother into the Kingsguard, but I've no doubt she is manipulated into playing her part. Yes, I think that means Aerys and Varys know of their incest and use that knowledge to further their own designs. Cersei has been at court with her father for some time, so it is very likely Varys has had his little birds watching her and gathering information. A loose word by anyone in the Lannister contingent would be enough. A maid of Cersei talking of Joanna separating the twins, or Cersei herself saying something she thought clever and hidden but provokes an interest. It could be a lot of things that tip Varys off.

 

On 1/31/2017 at 6:11 PM, TheSeason said:

Excellent point.

However, I do find myself shocked a little bit at the naivety of scheming to overthrow the Targaryens with their power bloc and yet not preparing for the usurpation to come to war!

But look at how close it comes to working! They have reached the point of agreeing to the dowry with the Lannisters and bringing them into their plot, with other shoes to drop. I have to wonder if the attempt to marry the Blackfish to Bethany Redwyne was an early part of this plot, and perhaps the marriage of Stannis to Selyse is planned before the rebellion as well. That would help tie to important families to the plot from the Reach, where Mace has no children of marriageable age? We don't know what is planned for Elbert and Ned, or even young Benjen, Renly, and Edmure. Could the plan include a marriage to Cersei or to one of the Hightower girls? I don't know, but if the marriages are consummated we have a very powerful bloc of families that need to do little than jointly tell the Targaryens to take their oaths of fealty and shove them up where the sun don't shine. At least until they hatch more dragons.

[J. Stargaryen]

On 1/31/2017 at 6:39 AM, Macgregor of the North said:

I think he had already knew in the run up to the Tourney he was facing a very real scenario that he was likely going to have find another mate to birth the third head of the Dragon. Elia was bedridden after the birth of Rhaenys for six whole months, and It seems he tried for Aegon on the strength of seeing the Comet in the Sky as a very strong sign. Strong enough to change the belief that he was the Promised prince, to it then being Aegon.

I don't doubt that he was aware of the possibility. However, I do doubt that he would have made any decisions prior to Aegon's birth.

On 1/31/2017 at 6:39 AM, Macgregor of the North said:

Lyanna I believe changes all that. I believe he notices her cry at his song, and then turn on her brother, and I also think he catches wind of the squire story and finds out Lyanna acted on that, becoming the KOTLT. 

Perhaps, but it's said that all the girls cried when Rhaegar played. I don't think her sniffles would have made her stand out to him.

On 1/31/2017 at 6:39 AM, Macgregor of the North said:

These thoughts I believe have enough weight for me to say Rhaegar views Lyanna as absolutely perfect material for the mother of the third head of the Dragon and he begins to entertain the idea that he may seek to use her for this purpose. I am not ruling out a romantic angle completely at this juncture, I am simply saying that while this wild girl may have caught his eye a wee bit in a romantic sense, I think it's her suitability as the mother of his third child in relation to his Prophecy that is driving his thoughts. 

I could see this making sense. Upon realizing Elia could not give him a third child, Rhaegar's thoughts turned to the Northern girl...

On 1/31/2017 at 6:39 AM, Macgregor of the North said:

As to Brandon's reaction. I understand where your coming from but I do not think that Brandon's reaction is because he feels that Rhaegar has sent a political threat message through Lyanna to the STAB power bloc that Rhaegar stands strong with his father and will unite with him should they have any lofty ideas and they should all heed that warning. I don't think Brandon is thinking that deeply at the time on the matter and simply sees a slight, though not the politically driven one you mention, which he automatically reacts to with violence in mind.

Brandon wouldn't have to be thinking especially deeply. All that he needs realize in that moment is that Rhaegar is sending a message involving the Starks. My guess is that Brandon knew what his father was up to, and would have understood any intended message.

Keep in mind that Lyanna was arguably the linchpin in the STAB alliance, being the only way to unite the Starks and Baratheons by marriage; the only girl out of seven combined children. Brandon and Catelyn both had younger same-sex siblings to replace them if need be. Ned + Lysa would still unite houses Stark and Tully.

On 1/31/2017 at 6:39 AM, Macgregor of the North said:

Brandon's reaction, and the other stuff is kind of irrelevant at this point. I see you guys point in the thread for sure, I just differ and stick to my guns that Rhaegar arrived at the Tourney with a mind for politics, which in turn were Prophecy driven (like you touch on) as he wanted a stable realm (as opposed to how things were going under his fathers rule) when it was time to fight the war for the dawn 2.0. But when it came to the end of the final tilt and the crowning, I think Rhaegars mind was filled with his connection with this girl and what that may entail in regards to the Prophecy.

Fair enough. I think it's a viable theory for sure. Or maybe Rhaegar was acknowledging Lyanna's deeds as the KotLT. I don't think any of the possibilities is the overwhelming favorite at the moment. But for a while now, I've been attracted to the political angle involved in R+L.

[J. Stargaryen]

On 1/31/2017 at 8:11 PM, TheSeason said:

Ah, so sorry! She used it so much it stuck in my head! :} It is a great one....

It's certainly convenient. I'll give myself that much credit.

On 1/31/2017 at 8:11 PM, TheSeason said:

As far as things changing... I think that's exactly what happened. I'm not certain if the 7k were meant to be completely dissolved instead of becoming more.... a federation of loosely aligned states sort of set-up (where the High Lords form, maybe, a High Council and there is no need for overlordship from the Iron Throne by any one house. However, the thing that changed is the brutal deaths of Rickard and Brandon Stark, the Arryn heir, et al. Suddenly, the STAB bloc was handed the moral high ground on a silver platter and that mattered to the new young leaders of the STAB bloc (Ned, Robert) after they had eaten up the "as high as honor" nonsense Jon Arryn was spewing out (without actually living it himself).

I tend to think they simply wanted to counter-balance the crown's power. But of course such an alliance might naturally result in the type of scenario you suggest.

On 1/31/2017 at 8:11 PM, TheSeason said:

I don't think either of them were fully aware of what that power bloc really was up to--treason--and Jon Arryn couldn't tell them "yes, Aerys II really isn't all that mad. We've involved you all in treason, and now he wants your heads. Let's continue our plan to overthrow the Targs. Aren't they just demonspawn? Always causing trouble. What do they know of honor?!"  The truth might have broken the alliance at a crucial moment of its formation.

This is another interesting angle. The Mad King was mad, but not necessarily wrong. And perhaps the supposedly honorable Jon Arryn wasn't as innocent and noble as we've been led to believe. Some have even suggested that he was working behind the scenes with Tywin Lannister even prior to the rebellion.

On 1/31/2017 at 8:11 PM, TheSeason said:

Your idea about keeping a nominal king on the Iron Throne is another option I'd considered as well. That works well with the confusion leading up to the Trident, but again begs the same question... why change the plan? Aerys and Rhaegar both had to die, yes. Viserys, Aegon, or better yet Rhaenys would have been acceptable solutions, all. Even Robert is an acceptable solution for the STAB bloc. Why continue to limit the High Lords power and authority by swearing Robert the same oaths of fealty sworn to Aerys II? Certainly, Tywin Lannister's grudge-fueled vengeance against House Targaryen might have thrown a monkey wrench into the gears, but that was at King's Landing, and the Trident is when the rebels decided to claim the throne in Robert's name. Even then, limiting the power of the Iron Throne itself was still a feasible option. Especially considering, the bonds that permitted the current generation to exert power through Robert I need not (and did not) extend past this current generation to their descendants. So, now the High Lords find themselves in the same frustrated position as before--and even more so, considering the mess their chosen king has left behind! A Lannister usurpation of the throne served none of the STAB bloc, and this problem (a possible foe to their descendants/Houses on the Iron Throne) was entirely foreseeable.

I think plans would have changed when Aerys executed Rickard, Brandon, et al., and then called for Ned and Robert's heads. Suddenly instead of a counter-balance to the crown's power, STAB is at war, and fighting for their lives. What is different about the Trident though, is that Rhaegar is leading his father's armies. Maybe STAB had considered the possibility of replacing Aerys with Rhaegar, until the prince joined with his father. It seems unlikely that Robert would have been in favor of this, but cooler heads might have believed it to be an acceptable outcome to the war.

On 1/31/2017 at 8:11 PM, TheSeason said:

I always come back to the conclusion that there's a significant piece of information regarding this decision that we're missing.

At least one!

[Macgregor of the North]

@J. Stargaryen

We disagree on plenty in regards to Rhaegar which is healthy and it's all down to how we perceive the man and how he thinks going with what GRRM has given us. Interpretation really. I don't think we will convince each other of any drastic changes in our views but I'll counter your thoughts all the same. 

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I don't doubt that he was aware of the possibility. However, I do doubt that he would have made any decisions prior to Aegon's birth.

There is no doubt that he was aware he likely needs a new mate for his third head Prophecy stuff. It's his life's work so he will believe that it's his duty, not just some desire he has. These thoughts are fresh in his mind at the Tourney as Elia, a poorly woman anyway, was bedridden for six months after Rhaenys, so may not even survive having their next child. This is a massive possibility and Rhaegar knows it, so any situations Rhaegar is faced with that show him someone with great potential to mother the third head, I believe he's gonna act on them with that future goal in mind. I also believe Rhaegar was told something by the Ghost of High Heart before the Tourney that made Lyanna stick out and catch his eye. Symbolic stuff. 

I think Rhaegars actions with Lyanna at the Tourney are motivated by all these thoughts. His final decision to take her/abscond with her though is not made until two things happen i believe. He sees Elia and his child safely through the birth (this child is his front runner for TPTWP due to the Comet), and also gets his confirmation, which he fully knew was coming I believe, that Elia will birth no more children. And also, Rhaegar needs to see the Ghost of High Heart to hear guidance/news/dreams one more time in exchange for Jenny's song to be sure he's doing the right thing. Which is sacrifice thousands in exchange for the Prophecy he believes in so much. 

So he has made plenty decisions by Tourney time on what he's prepared to do, but his final big plunge decision isn't made until he does the right thing by Elia and his second baby, then seeks the guidance he needs. 

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Perhaps, but it's said that all the girls cried when Rhaegar played. I don't think her sniffles would have made her stand out to him.

Your not getting where I'm coming from here. Add the sniffles on top of a few things. I think Rhaegar was told something symbolic that makes Lyanna stand out and him take note of her. When he is aware of her, I think he most certainly notices the two sides to her which can be quite endearing for a man checking out a female. The fact she can be moved by his song one second, to the point of tears, then quickly jump to a defensive, more feisty side where she feels the need to turn on her brother after being teased, which shows a steely side to a woman who likes to be strong and will defend herself if she feels her soft side has been exposed or mocked. If Rhaegar is already looking at this girl in a certain way. These things are standout instances I believe. 

And who knows. Maybe Rhaegar knows about the squire fight at this stage so his interest in her is at a heightened level already. 

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I could see this making sense. Upon realizing Elia could not give him a third child, Rhaegar's thoughts turned to the Northern girl...

I believe he had already planned for the moment of realisation and laid the groundwork with Lyanna. I've already explained why I believe he is motivated to do this at the Tourney. And he does indeed turn to the Northern girl, like he knew he was likely going too, but needed to see a couple of things through before he made the plunge. 

As I said about the Brandon stuff, I apologise if I show less interest in that angle. Rhaegars motivations are what prompted me to jump on the thread as that topics a big favourite of mines. I think the way he sees Lyannas actions as the KOTLT that you mention go hand in hand with my Prophecy motivation theory. Ive always thought so. That would just make him think she was excellent third head mother material even more.

We appear to disagree on his motivations, but as I've said, that's healthy. We view the man differently.

 

[J. Stargaryen]

12 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@J. Stargaryen

We disagree on plenty in regards to Rhaegar which is healthy and it's all down to how we perceive the man and how he thinks going with what GRRM has given us. Interpretation really. I don't think we will convince each other of any drastic changes in our views but I'll counter your thoughts all the same. 

Actually, I don't think we necessarily disagree that much about Rhaegar. We both acknowledge that he was likely motivated by some combination of politics, love, and prophecy. We only really differ on the size of the role each part played.

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There is no doubt that he was aware he likely needs a new mate for his third head Prophecy stuff. It's his life's work so he will believe that it's his duty, not just some desire he has. These thoughts are fresh in his mind at the Tourney as Elia, a poorly woman anyway, was bedridden for six months after Rhaenys, so may not even survive having their next child. This is a massive possibility and Rhaegar knows it, so any situations Rhaegar is faced with that show him someone with great potential to mother the third head, I believe he's gonna act on them with that future goal in mind. I also believe Rhaegar was told something by the Ghost of High Heart before the Tourney that made Lyanna stick out and catch his eye. Symbolic stuff. 

I think your theory is reasonable, but I have much less confidence in it than you do. I don't think the available evidence justifies the opening claim that, "There is no doubt... ." On the contrary, Elia's attendance at HH, while pregnant, would seem to run counter to your narrative. Given her difficulty following Rhaenys's birth, I would imagine that any indication of ill health would have prevented her from traveling.

12 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

I think Rhaegars actions with Lyanna at the Tourney are motivated by all these thoughts. His final decision to take her/abscond with her though is not made until two things happen i believe. He sees Elia and his child safely through the birth (this child is his front runner for TPTWP due to the Comet), and also gets his confirmation, which he fully knew was coming I believe, that Elia will birth no more children. And also, Rhaegar needs to see the Ghost of High Heart to hear guidance/news/dreams one more time in exchange for Jenny's song to be sure he's doing the right thing. Which is sacrifice thousands in exchange for the Prophecy he believes in so much.

This is all possible, of course. But it's also highly speculative. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if at least some of this turned out to be correct. I think there's a decent chance of some interaction with the GoHH.

12 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

So he has made plenty decisions by Tourney time on what he's prepared to do, but his final big plunge decision isn't made until he does the right thing by Elia and his second baby, then seeks the guidance he needs.

I suppose it's possible that he chose Lyanna at HH as Elia's eventual replacement, and this is what he was signalling when he crowned her. This symbolism does exist, but my guess is that it was meant for the readers, and not the characters.

12 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Your not getting where I'm coming from here. Add the sniffles on top of a few things. I think Rhaegar was told something symbolic that makes Lyanna stand out and him take note of her. When he is aware of her, I think he most certainly notices the two sides to her which can be quite endearing for a man checking out a female. The fact she can be moved by his song one second, to the point of tears, then quickly jump to a defensive, more feisty side where she feels the need to turn on her brother after being teased, which shows a steely side to a woman who likes to be strong and will defend herself if she feels her soft side has been exposed or mocked. If Rhaegar is already looking at this girl in a certain way. These things are standout instances I believe. 

And who knows. Maybe Rhaegar knows about the squire fight at this stage so his interest in her is at a heightened level already.

I think I get what you're coming from. However, I'm just saying that the sniffles wouldn't have made her stand out. It was something all the girls who heard Rhaegar play had in common. I think that detail is more significant for the readers than the characters.

You kind of make this point yourself, but it's not so much the sniffles as it is all of the other stuff. Sticking up for Howland, being the KotLT. Those are what separate her from the crowd.

12 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

We appear to disagree on his motivations, but as I've said, that's healthy. We view the man differently.

Nothing wrong with having different opinions.

[Macgregor of the North]

@J. Stargaryen

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I think your theory is reasonable, but I have much less confidence in it than you do. I don't think the available evidence justifies the opening claim that, "There is no doubt... ." On the contrary, Elia's attendance at HH, while pregnant, would seem to run counter to your narrative. Given her difficulty following Rhaenys's birth, I would imagine that any indication of ill health would have prevented her from traveling.

I believe that this is one of the things GRRM "overlooked" (believe me! It happens) in regards to Elia. He went to pains in the books to show us her poorly health, and how she was ill for six months in bed and all that, but has her turn up at the Tourney in the second half of her pregnancy. It's a writers sacrifice I think he's made because he needed Elia to be there at the Tourney, even if it ran against all he tells us about her. Possibly for more impact in the crowning, when Rhaegar moves his horse past his own wife and all that to crown Lyanna, very powerful and provocative action needed by GRRM to show us how serious Rhaegar is with this business. 

But in my eyes all that doesn't change the fact that Rhaegars not a dummy. He knows there's a healthy chance Elia won't even make it through this pregnancy given her general state of health and poorly period after Rhaenys. We could even argue that Rhaegar viewed her travels to the Tourney as extra evidence she would struggle more this time round, as she should be resting lol. And if she lives, which obviously he hopes she does, he will know that the need for a new mate is inevitable as he needs another child she won't be able to give him. I believe he understood this at the Tourney, you don't, it's all good though. 

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This is all possible, of course. But it's also highly speculative. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if at least some of this turned out to be correct. I think there's a decent chance of some interaction with the GoHH.

Speculative yes, but nearly every discussion about these books are, but if I'm honest I think your coming round to the idea.

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I suppose it's possible that he chose Lyanna at HH as Elia's eventual replacement, and this is what he was signalling when he crowned her. This symbolism does exist, but my guess is that it was meant for the readers, and not the characters.

Well I believe got the message. Rhaegar was putting a message across to Lyanna, while GRRM was putting a message out to us. It's how I interpret the HH business.

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I think I get what you're coming from. However, I'm just saying that the sniffles wouldn't have made her stand out. It was something all the girls who heard Rhaegar play had in common. I think that detail is more significant for the readers than the characters.

You kind of make this point yourself, but it's not so much the sniffles as it is all of the other stuff. Sticking up for Howland, being the KotLT. Those are what separate her from the crowd.

I don't believe you do get where I'm coming from but never mind haha. I'm not saying the sniffles made her standout. I couldn't possibly explain my stance on this any better than my last attempt so revert back to that. 

And of course! Difference in opinion is effectively what makes the forum survive and makes threads go on for days on end.   It's a natural thing. 

[King Ned Stark]

@J. Stargaryen, @Macgregor of the North, good stuff guys.  So much from Harrenhal to the ToJ engagement is confusing to me.

1-Why did Rhaegar crown Lyanna, when it was so self-destructive towards his own ends?

2-Did Lyanna stay at Harrenhal after the tourney?  I can reconcile with myself with the "abduction", as I think she was actually fleeing kings' men sent to arrest her, to lure Rickard, a la Brandon.  I think Lyanna was actually the grey girl on a dying horse, and the GoHH told Rhaegar where she was.  Hence the journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands.

4-I can even reconcile why Rhaegar stayed away, completely unsupported by text, but Rhaegar and Lyanna married, and Rhaegar demanded a royal decree recognizing said marriage before coming back.  I think, Martin set a precedent here with LC of the kingsguard carrying/witnessing royal wills/decrees (with Ned, Barristan, and Robert).  Gerold seems pro-Aerys, and then suddenly is team Rhaegar, I think Gerold was the cement that Rhaegar demanded to close their deal, like Ned tried with barry and Cersei. Also, Maegor took a second wife as a prince, and was exiled by his brother the king, why add that tidbit, just backstory?  Perhaps Aerys wanted to disinherit/or exile Rhaegar, but couldn't find a suitable war commander?

5-The lone survivor, Ethan Glover, why was he spared?  Seems a small thing, but the World Book tells us that Aerys executed ALL the Darklyns, distant kin, good-kin, etc., and would have executed Dontos, a boy if not for Barry.  I have my own thoughts, but again it's not supported with text, and actually might make a famous line in the books a lie.  But, I think Martin has kicked the "unreliable narrator" thing into high gear.

Those are 5 off the top of my head.  At this point I don't think we can solve anything on textual support and look to motive, how those characters typically acted, albeit in secondhand flashbacks.

Anyway, answer if ya like, if either have an opinion, as I think a lot of these instances are subtly connected, or should I say, I don't like the coincidence angle, as in, ahh Aerys forgot about Ethan, etc.

[Lord Wraith]

There was a post on Reddit a few months ago on the Tournament at Harrenhal and Southern Ambitions.

The Harrenhal Conspiracy

Its the first part but the links to the others can be found in the link. Very interesting and makes a lot of sense to me with the three factions plus Tywin playing the sides.

[Macgregor of the North]

@King Ned Stark

Good questions . I'll take a stab at the first and have a look at the others when I have more time. 

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1-Why did Rhaegar crown Lyanna, when it was so self-destructive towards his own ends?

I believe that Rhaegars own ends are the Prince that was promised Prophecy and the crowning is linked with that so I don't think he genuinely deep down thought this message to/interaction with Lyanna was that destructive to "his own ends". And effectively his own ends are the realms own ends too in the Long game. We must remember that Rhaegar has felt most of his life it's his responsibility to save the world, as dramatic as that sounds. 

 

[King Ned Stark]

 

1 hour ago, Lord Wraith said:

There was a post on Reddit a few months ago on the Tournament at Harrenhal and Southern Ambitions.

The Harrenhal Conspiracy

Its the first part but the links to the others can be found in the link. Very interesting and makes a lot of sense to me with the three factions plus Tywin playing the sides.

Thx, that is very compelling.

52 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@King Ned Stark

Good questions . I'll take a stab at the first and have a look at the others when I have more time. 

I believe that Rhaegars own ends are the Prince that was promised Prophecy and the crowning is linked with that so I don't think he genuinely deep down thought this message to/interaction with Lyanna was that destructive to "his own ends". And effectively his own ends are the realms own ends too in the Long game. We must remember that Rhaegar has felt most of his life it's his responsibility to save the world, as dramatic as that sounds. 

 

I think you may be right, or that you are right, I'm just unsure, personally, when Rhaegar's "behavior" became erratic, for lack of a better word, to outsiders due to his involvement with prophecy.  May be it was the crowning, that's where he definitely starts doing things that confuse/anger a lot of people.

[Macgregor of the North]

23 minutes ago, King Ned Stark said:

 

 

I think you may be right, or that you are right, I'm just unsure, personally, when Rhaegar's "behavior" became erratic, for lack of a better word, to outsiders due to his involvement with prophecy.  May be it was the crowning, that's where he definitely starts doing things that confuse/anger a lot of people.

I think that as far as angering people with his actions due to his involvement with Prophecy, the Lyanna crowning is a major turning point. 

As far as erratic behaviour that confuses people, I personally think that possibly goes back further. After he went to Summerhall, he keeps going back, alone with not even a member of the Kingsguard as protection as is the duty of the Kingsguard to protect the Royal blood. I think these visits involve the Ghost of High Heart and Prophecy so that's an instance I believe. 

He was bookish, seldom entered the lists and only requested to be trained at arms because he read something in a scroll (the Prophecy I obviously believe). That is confusing strange behaviour for a man in his environment I suppose. 

Also, when he sees the Comet in the sky, this effects his judgement on things hugely, even though it doesn't properly align with what his Prophecy says. It is known that Rhaegar changed his mind from believing that he was TPTWP, to it being Aegon due to seeing the Comet in the sky the night he was conceived. 

I am uncertain what Elia and Rhaegars personal intimate situation was but I think he was not actively always trying for babies with her due to her health. Whether or not they were having sex and his pull out game was strong or she was drinking moon tea is something I'm not sure on but I think that seeing the Comet in the sky prompted him to try for a baby that night, and boom it worked. 

Rhaegar from then on may well have changed his belief that this coming child would be the PTWP instead of him on the strength of the Comet alone, even though his Prophecy states "born beneath a bleeding star", or "when the red star bleeds" ...... shall be born" and all that jazz. 

So let's say that Rhaegar and Elia weren't trying but he see the Comet and wants to try that night, that may be erratic. 

Or let's say he writes Aemon on the wall before Aegons birth and says "me and Elia tried for a baby, despite her poorly health on the strength of the sight of a Comet in the sky, because of this I believe this child may be TPTWP". 

We know he eventually tells Aemon he is certain after the birth of Aegon, but he may have mentioned it before the birth, Infact i personally believe he does. 

These things above could certainly come across as confusing or erratic to some, but likely not Rhaegar who is driven purely by searching for the signs of the Prophecy, even if he does not read them correctly. Infact that kind of highlights Rhaegars erratic behaviour in regards to the Prophecy and how he will act impulsively on the strength of what he believes a Prophecy sign.

[Macgregor of the North]

@King Ned Stark

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2-Did Lyanna stay at Harrenhal after the tourney?  I can reconcile with myself with the "abduction", as I think she was actually fleeing kings' men sent to arrest her, to lure Rickard, a la Brandon.  I think Lyanna was actually the grey girl on a dying horse, and the GoHH told Rhaegar where she was.  Hence the journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands.

I don't personally think Lyanna stayed at Harrenhal although it's a possibility. I see her going with Ned and Robert to the Vale or with Brandon to Riverrun, or even journey between both, there's a few months (at least) between Tourney and abduction/absconding so it's not out of the question. There are ladies in the Vale related to Lyanna (from the line of Jocelyn Stark) who could have taught her the ways of a southern lady so who knows, maybe she spent time there although that's just speculation of course.

I can't make the leap to agree the girl on the horse in the vision is Lyanna (I'd need to analyse all that again) but I think the idea she was fleeing Kings men sent to arrest her could hold weight. 

I think Rhaegar seeked the GOHH once more to find out a few things before making his absolute final decision on what he will do in regards to Lyanna, but the GOHH had left Summerhall and returned to the Riverlands (her homeland), so after that, if he happens across her in danger in the Riverlands and helps her there's a possibility there of course. 

Im not sure exactly how GRRM has the meeting between the two go down in the Riverlands. If there is perhaps guards or even friendly companions that Lyanna flees from, we haven't heard the story of it yet, but then again that whole mess is purposefully all over the place to leave us in the dark so who knows. 

Lyanna loves to ride her horse, we know that, so she may have even just been out riding with someone sent to keep an eye on her and met Rhaegar, then things escalate from there. This is harder to believe though as Winter had hit Westeros so the chances of her just out riding her horse are lessened, no matter how Northern and tough she is. 

Its more likely she was journeying while the abduction/absconding happened. 

[Macgregor of the North]

@King Ned Stark

On Rhaegar asking for a Royal decree to recognise the marriage of Rhaegar and Lyanna before he would come back, im less sure if Rhaegar was using this as his reason to come back. We know he planned to remove his father from power anyway so I think that when he won the war for his father (as he thought he would) and came into power he could have just told the realm, I have two wives now and three children. The usurpers would be dead, Rhaegar would have won the war, he had all the power so who could oppose that?. 

I think in the end he returned because he thought that if Robert won and took Kings Landing, where his other two children were and other people dear to him, his cause was doomed. And by cause I mean to effectively save the world. 

If Robert took KL, it would only have been a matter of time before he found them and killed them too, including the baby possibly, although maybe not Lyanna.

He had to act and get back in the thick of it to win the war, unite the Lords that were left (and the realm), overthrow his father, and see his three children who he thinks fulfill the Prophecy grow to one day fight in the Long Night. 

At this stage I believe that Rhaegar has changed his mind AGAIN lol, to think that the child from his union between him and Lyanna may actually be the PTWP, "who's song is the song of Ice and Fire". 

I think he learned the importance of the Ice and Fire part when he met the GOHH for the last time before taking Lyanna. 

Before that, when he thought Aegon was the PTWP I think he thought Aegons song was the song of Ice and Fire because being TPTWP he was simply the tool to win the war between the elements of Ice and Fire, but he finally realised that the Ice and Fire part was actually a reference to his union and offspring with Lyanna Stark.

Sorry, a lot mentioned there but I think these are Rhaegars thoughts and motivations.

[Macgregor of the North]

@King Ned Stark

On Ethan, the lone survivor. 

Usually when someone survives when all others are killed, there's a reason isn't there. Brandon and the rest were killed, Rickard and his men were all killed. Proposed to be like 200 men. So why was Ethan spared. 

Was he the one sent with the summons to Lord Rickard? Then he played a low key part in the war until the sack of KL where he then becomes more a part of the tale again as Neds companion?. 

Or 

Was he a prisoner at KL the whole time?. Possibly, that has to mean they thought he had information I'd imagine. But if the info wasn't forthcoming why didn't Aerys just burn him? He killed everyone else. They can't have forgotten him as the time is too long so they had to have been feeeding him or he would've starved. I'm always a little unsure on the captive at KL option. 

Or

Did he perhaps escape when Brandon was arrested after a skirmish and get away with some injury maybe?. Did he find some safe place and be low key throughout the war until he met up with Ned?. 

Hard to say for sure. He may have had plot armour on and needed to be kept alive for a GRRM story reason so we have to just accept he survived. 

I theorised once that he was the one who first told Ned that Brandon actually rode to KL as angry at Lyanna as he was at Rhaegar as he had knowledge that she went willingly with him, instead of being kidnapped, which then promotes the idea that she was Infact safe, or at least not being raped hundreds of times as Robert thought. 

This may have made Ned a little more comfortable with taking a bit more time before sneaking off to find her, like lifting the siege at Storms End and stuff, which any other Lord in Roberts army could have done I suppose. 

[SFDanny]

11 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

 

1-Why did Rhaegar crown Lyanna, when it was so self-destructive towards his own ends?

I think I've given my thoughts on this one already. Rhaegar's crowning is, in my opinion, a statement of his interest in stopping the marriages of the STAB bloc, and a warning to them not to proceed with their plans.That does not mean, however, there aren't other forces in play here, including a budding romantic interest, I think.

11 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

2-Did Lyanna stay at Harrenhal after the tourney?  I can reconcile with myself with the "abduction", as I think she was actually fleeing kings' men sent to arrest her, to lure Rickard, a la Brandon.  I think Lyanna was actually the grey girl on a dying horse, and the GoHH told Rhaegar where she was.  Hence the journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands.

Absolutely not. I know this idea is long been kicked around these threads, but I don't see anyway the Starks allow young Lyanna to stay with a Targaryen loyalist house, and one that worked for Rhaegar's faction, after the events of the tourney. If we also assume the Stark brothers are not blind to Lyanna's attraction to Rhaegar, this is almost the last place they would allow her to stay, perhaps only after Dragonstone and the Red Keep.

Rather, the Starks all likely go to the Vale after the tourney and spend time with Lord Arryn. At some point, Benjen is sent home to be the Stark in Winterfell, and to allow Rickard to come south and attend Brandon's wedding, and perhaps also Lyanna's wedding to Robert. Brandon, at some point, leaves the Vale to go to Riverrun, and is accompanied by his close companions and his squire. Lyanna is almost certainly on her way to the wedding from the Vale when the "kidnapping" occurs.

I have to say I'm not keen on looking for stand ins everywhere in the present story for the events of the backstory. I think the "grey girl on a dying horse" is Alys Karstark and not Alys Karstark as a hint to a Lyanna escape. I don't think it fits what we know.

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"If he loved you, he would come and carry you off at swordpoint, as Rhaegar carried off his northern girl, the girl in her insisted, but the queen knew tat was folly." (ADwD 577) bold emphasis added

Which would suggest that at some point swords were drawn in Lyanna's "kidnapping" and not a lone "grey girl on a dying horse" fleeing and running into Rhaegar's party. I don't see Rhaegar, Ser Arthur, and Ser Oswell having to draw steel on a fleeing alone Lyanna, but I do see it likely that the escorted daughter of a High Lord might well have to have swords drawn to persuade her guardians to allow her to be taken.

I've argued this starts out as a rescue from the impending wedding with Robert. I would go even farther to suggest the meeting of the two parties enabled Lyanna to make her plea to Rhaegar and that plea includes the debt he owes her for using her at Harrenhal in his crowning message.

11 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

 

4-I can even reconcile why Rhaegar stayed away, completely unsupported by text, but Rhaegar and Lyanna married, and Rhaegar demanded a royal decree recognizing said marriage before coming back.  I think, Martin set a precedent here with LC of the kingsguard carrying/witnessing royal wills/decrees (with Ned, Barristan, and Robert).  Gerold seems pro-Aerys, and then suddenly is team Rhaegar, I think Gerold was the cement that Rhaegar demanded to close their deal, like Ned tried with barry and Cersei. Also, Maegor took a second wife as a prince, and was exiled by his brother the king, why add that tidbit, just backstory?  Perhaps Aerys wanted to disinherit/or exile Rhaegar, but couldn't find a suitable war commander?

Rhaegar stays away, in my opinion, because he cannot bring Lyanna within his father's control. She will be a hostage whose life may be forfeit if the Starks do not do as Aerys wishes. Honor and love will not allow him to give her over to Aerys.

Rhaegar comes back after Elia and her children have moved from Dragonstone to King's Landing and are under Aerys's control. He also comes back after Aerys has shown an inability to stop the threat to Targaryen rule, and that includes, of course, Rhaegar's own rule and the rule of his son, the Prince Who Was Promised.

I'm convinced that the message Aerys sends via Prince Lewyn to Dorne telling them he held Elia was also sent to Rhaegar via Hightower. Rhaegar has no choice but to relent and come north and try to win the war.

I don't see a reason for Rhaegar to inform his father of a second marriage, if that happened. It would only fuel Aerys's already hot temper to have Rhaegar marry without his consent.

11 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

5-The lone survivor, Ethan Glover, why was he spared?  Seems a small thing, but the World Book tells us that Aerys executed ALL the Darklyns, distant kin, good-kin, etc., and would have executed Dontos, a boy if not for Barry.  I have my own thoughts, but again it's not supported with text, and actually might make a famous line in the books a lie.  But, I think Martin has kicked the "unreliable narrator" thing into high gear.

Those are 5 off the top of my head.  At this point I don't think we can solve anything on textual support and look to motive, how those characters typically acted, albeit in secondhand flashbacks.

Anyway, answer if ya like, if either have an opinion, as I think a lot of these instances are subtly connected, or should I say, I don't like the coincidence angle, as in, ahh Aerys forgot about Ethan, etc.

Perhaps because his father doesn't show up for a trial in time? Deepwood Motte is a very long ways away from King's Landing, and Aerys wanted the fathers to stand for the son's "crimes."

I think the importance of Ethan Glover may well only be in the need for someone to relay the information of the motivations and actions of Brandon's party. Glover travels with Ned's party from King's Landing to the Tower of Joy and it may be we learn from Howland Reed through his remembered conversations with Ethan this part of the backstory.