Blue roses, Southron Ambitions, and the machinations of a mad king

[King Ned Stark]

A recent topic about why Steffon failed to find Rhaegar a bride of Valyrian blood got me thinking about the Mad King, as I posited that Aerys's actual plan was to stunt Rhaegar's influence in court and around the realm.  First he sought a foreign bride that would bring his heir no new allies in Westeros, and when that failed, opted for a bride of known "delicacy" that could not travel when she was young, and perhaps would be too frail to produce heirs for Rhaegar whom Aerys was starting to see as a growing threat to his reign.

Now, Martin, I believe has crafted these mysteries very carefully, so as to leave them virtually unsolvable through the text alone.  However, Martin does seem adept at keeping his characters' actions consistent.  So using what text I could find, along with character motive and opportunity, I have tried to take a contrarian view at some long debated mysteries.  This is not so much a theory as it is an attempt to put a different lense on the subject and see what the board thinks, most of which are smarter and better versed in the text than myself.  Feel free to shoot it down or add to it, here goes.

Starting with Aerys, we get the impressiom that he can be charming, but also petty, jealous, and cruel.  Aerys and Tywin start down a bad road.

Quote

It had been reliably reported, however, that king Aerys took unwonted liberties with lady Joanna's person during her bedding ceremony, to Tywin's displeasure.

Over his Hand's strenuous objections, the king doubled the (realms) port fees...When a delegation of small lords and rich merchants came before the Iron Throne to complain, however, Aerys blamed the Hand for the exactions...Whereupon His Grace restored port fees and tariffs to their previous levels, earning much acclaim for himself and leaving Tywin the opprobrium.

The World Book

So we see the jealous and grasping Aerys, who will lie and deceive to make himself look better and others look worse.  Then later:

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By this time king Aerys had become aware of the widespread belief he himself was but a hollow figurehead and Tywin was the true master of the 7 Kingdoms.

the king asked her (Joanna) if giving suck to them had ruined her breasts, which were so high and proud...Tywin attempted to return his chain of office the next day, but the king refused...

The king could have dismissed Tywin as Hand at anytime, but chose to keep his boyhood friend close...even as he began to undermine him in ways both great and small...Aerys was determined to disprove the rumors and humble his "over mighty servant".

The World Book

 

So we see Aerys could have rid himself of Tywin, but preferred to keep him close until he could bring his Hand low.  Only after he acquired Jaime in the KG, and had leverage over Tywin and humiliated him by leaving him a dwarf as his only heir did he finally release Tywin from his post.  And then the mistrust starts to bleed into Rhaegar.

Quote

They cheered Father twice as loudly as the king, but only half as loudly as they cheered Rhaegar. - thoughts of Cersei

And.

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He may or he may not (kill Aerys), but if he does we have a better king right here, where he indicated Rhaegar.

Prince Rhaegar, he was convinced, had conspired with Tywin at Duskendale to have him slain...opening the way for Rhaegar to mount the Iron Throne and marry Tywin's daughter...determined to prevent that he summoned Steffon to find Rhaegar "a maid of noble birth from an old Valyrian bloodline"...that he entrusted this to Steffon and not Tywin or Rhaegar, speaks volumes.

The World Book

So, despite being Mad, Aerys is somewhat capable of using public sentiment, lies, and underhanded tactics to keep his rivals from gaining too much support against the throne.

And this is where I'll delve into some tinfoilery, or at least speculation using a different lense.  Aerys, paranoid as they come, was worried about Rhaegar's growing influence, and possibly about a power. bloc Rickard was building against him.  People have been asking for a long time, myself included, why on earth would Rhaegar undermine his own coup by naming Lyanna as QoLaB.

 Well, what if Aerys made him present Lyanna with the laurel of blue roses to drive a wedge between his two rivals.  I know it sounds crazy, and probably is, but it is the Mad King after all. And, it would be similar tactics he had used before, using leverage (Elia and Ashara were there) to bring his opponents low and make himself seem more desirable.  Maybe that explains why Ashara was dishonored, though that seems hard to fit in, and why Rhaegar entered the lists, and why Barristan wonders about being a better knight and not having Rhaegar's trust.  If, and yeah it's a big if, Aerys somehow compelled Rhaegar to undermine himself, Rhaegar had to ensure victory, and possibly ordered his men to stand down and let him win, further bringing Rhaegar low, and making him seem weak in the eyes of his knights and men.

The plan, if it indeed worked out that way, would've worked if not for the honor of Jon Arryn.

You know, you're not actually paranoid if they are out to get ya.  Aerys was crazy, maybe crazy like a fox.

Like I said, this is not a pet theory of mine, and maybe has been presented before.  Anyway, tear it down or build on it, would enjoy seeing what you guys think.

Sorry for the length.

[SFDanny]

11 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

And this is where I'll delve into some tinfoilery, or at least speculation using a different lense.  Aerys, paranoid as they come, was worried about Rhaegar's growing influence, and possibly about a power. bloc Rickard was building against him.  People have been asking for a long time, myself included, why on earth would Rhaegar undermine his own coup by naming Lyanna as QoLaB.

 Well, what if Aerys made him present Lyanna with the laurel of blue roses to drive a wedge between his two rivals.  I know it sounds crazy, and probably is, but it is the Mad King after all. And, it would be similar tactics he had used before, using leverage (Elia and Ashara were there) to bring his opponents low and make himself seem more desirable.  Maybe that explains why Ashara was dishonored, though that seems hard to fit in, and why Rhaegar entered the lists, and why Barristan wonders about being a better knight and not having Rhaegar's trust.  If, and yeah it's a big if, Aerys somehow compelled Rhaegar to undermine himself, Rhaegar had to ensure victory, and possibly ordered his men to stand down and let him win, further bringing Rhaegar low, and making him seem weak in the eyes of his knights and men.

The plan, if it indeed worked out that way, would've worked if not for the honor of Jon Arryn.

You know, you're not actually paranoid if they are out to get ya.  Aerys was crazy, maybe crazy like a fox.

My own take on why would Rhaegar "undermine his own coup by naming Lyanna as QoLaB" is it is his choice, but it is a Hobson's choice - he really has no other road to take at the time. Let me explain my thinking here. I think people look at Harrenhal as the romantic story we  get from Meera's tale, or the outrage of a lovestruck prince in the Homeric tradition. It's part all of that, but at heart this is "A Game of Thrones" a political tale of intrigue. Faction against faction. Complete with backstabbing plots and jealousies. I think Rhaegar's action in large part is a political action in which he uses the language and symbolism of ceremony just as his father did at the beginning of the tourney. He does the same at the end with his crowning of Lyanna.

I'm persuaded that Harrenhal is called as an unofficial Great Council in order for Rhaegar to explore the support of Westerosi nobility in removing his father and having Rhaegar replace him. I'm also persuaded that Aerys decides to come to the tourney in order to destroy any alliance from forming to do as Rhaegar desires. But what gets left out here is that Rhaegar calls the tourney without agreement about his proposed road to be taken. He is trying to persuade many who have expressed no desire for his plan. And, in fact, he is trying to persuade many who have plans of their own. The most important of these is the growing bloc of High Lords initiated by Lord Rickard of Winterfell. If we look at the actions at Harrenhal under that lens, we can much better understand what the players of are trying to accomplish.

The start of the tourney, Aerys delivers his response to the plots he sees against him. He "honors" Jaime by making him a member of his Kingsguard. By so doing he also steals away Tywin's chosen heir, and stops the Stark-Tulley-Arryn-Baratheon bloc from growing to include the Lannisters. It is a mistake to see this as just a rebuke to Tywin's hubris, although it is certainly that, but rather the king and his close advisors choose a method by which no one can object to the honor given Jaime while firmly delivering the message that the king will not tolerate plots against him.

Through the rest of the tourney there are key events that change the course of Westeros. One of these is the king's anger at the presence of the mystery knight - the knight of the laughing tree - and his belief this is Jaime defying his order and sneaking back to grab glory - followed by Rhaegar's seeming inability to unmask the knight and prove his paranoid delusions true. That it is, in Aerys's mind, Tywin's son masquerading as a northern knight is significant in seeing where the king sees the origins of the threats against him. Then when Rhaegar fails him against his enemies he must be sure he sees the broad coalition arrayed against him. 

But Rhaegar is no part of this coalition. The aims of which are antithetical to his own. What the STAB alliance wants, and Tywin was on the verge of joining, is a political bloc aimed at ridding Westeros of Targaryen rule, not just the rule of one mad king. A bloc dedicated to bringing back the Seven Kingdoms from a bygone pre-Targaryen era in which there is no Iron Throne to which the the High Lords must pledge fealty. A Westeros in which there once again is a King in the North, a King of the Vale, a Storm King, etc. This is the message Rhaegar receives at Harrenhal and what determines his actions with Lyanna. It is a message that is delivered by, I believe, Brandon Stark.

Brandon not only challenges and jousts with Rhaegar, but he dishonors, I believe, the sister of Rhaegar's best friend and protector and the companion of his wife, the Princess Elia. He as much as spits on Rhaegar by his action, and by so doing delivers the response of all the STAB bloc to his proposal of a Great Council. He does so in a tourney in which all but Robert seem to have turned their backs on his invitation (we know Rickard and Tywin are not there, and it looks like Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully are absent as well.)

But Rhaegar has no interest in a Westeros without Targaryen rule, even if he is willing to set his father aside. So, he too sends his message, and does so in the identical form of his father. By "honoring" Lyanna as his Queen of Love and Beauty, Rhaegar tells all of Westeros in very explicit terms that he has an interest in to whom Lyanna is to marry, and he intends to stop the STAB bloc in its anti-Targaryen plans, even though that means uniting with his father to do so.

Now, I think there are many things going on here, and I don't mean to reduce these intrigues to just the broader political in fighting that is going on at the time, but I also think this background is too often forgotten. Yes, it is quite likely Rhaegar notices Lyanna and is captivated by her character and beauty. And, yes, Rhaegar has his understanding of prophecy pushing much of what he believes is true and necessary, but, in the end his crowning of Lyanna is, i believe, a largely political act in which the Prince moves his faction from seeking alliances with others to remove his father, to supporting his father's rule in the face of the STAB challenge.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

I like both of these explanations. Carry on.

[King Ned Stark]

@SFDanny, thanks for taking the time to read through that.  My apologies, but I'm going to give you a generic response, chiefly because it's late here and my two young sons and I have been home the past two days with the flu (hence the long OP, which is not my style).

Wow, that was impressive, I admire the way you approached the problem, by thinking outside the box.  It's pretty amazing on two fronts, IMHO; first, thinking that Rhaegar crowned Lyanna out of necessity, which ATM I tend to agree with for reasons I don't know other than gut feeling, it seems out of character for him to do otherwise, and I am no Rhaegar fanboy.  But also, not only did he do it out of necessity, but also of his own volition.  And two, that Martin can weave a mystery that has so many theories, I thought long and hard just on the concept that Rhaegar didn't want to crown Lyanna, and you come along with another reason why he didn't want to but actually went through with it.

I really enjoyed your take on the ToH, there are things on both sides of our interpretations that I really like, but most of all that Rhaegar felt he had no choice.  As an heir as stooped in prophecy and politics as Rhaegar, I personally don't like the "he was smitten", "he was reprimanding Brandon", or the "prophecy" reasons, though I could swallow the prophecy reasons best.  There are a multitude of reasons why I don't like those reasons, but first among them are the people they associated with.  Martin is smart enough to not give us enough textual clues to solve this, so perhaps some good old detective work is needed; no DNA, no eyewitness, just motive and opportunity and keeping within ones character traits.

I hope to delve into your post tomorrow, and determine my own opinion on whether Rhaegar was forced or responded on the fly, but I think you are on the right track that it wasn't a flight of fancy.

As an aside, I think the take the Rhaegar felt compelled to crown Lyanna, for whatever reason better suits the intrigues that come along with Brandon, Ned, Ashara, Barristan, etc.  But maybe I missed something obvious.

Anyway, thanks for the response, I thoroughly enjoyed and hope to get back to you soon.

Apropos of nothing, I enjoy discourse that leads to answers or solutions more than I do hanging my hat on some old theory.  I would like a better reason than Rhaegar just goofed.  Thank you.

 

 

 

[SFDanny]

13 minutes ago, King Ned Stark said:

thanks for taking the time to read through that.

I enjoyed very much your take on a subject I've spent long hours thinking about. I'm glad you liked some of my thoughts. Look forward to more discussion when you feel better. Get well.

[King Ned Stark]

35 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I like both of these explanations. Carry on.

Add to it brother.  I should have stated that as I guy that read GoT 20 years ago, these questions shouldn't still bother me.   My oldest daughter is in college for Goodness sakes, I read  GoT before she was born.  I shouldn't be bothered whether Brandon Stark dishonored Ashara, or if Rhaegar was a nutjob or a good guy.  And yet, it bothers me, I guess Martin is that good.

But the way everyone in-book feels about Rhaegar, I don't like the selfish reason for him doing what he did.

And now I'm screwed, I started drinking bourbon to mask the pain, but it's just a mask, like a Faceless Man, and I'm gonna pay tomorrow (my wife warned me), though I do feel good right.

But Mo' Parties, I've read a lot of your posts, you know more about this than me, you can add to the idea, which for the moment I think is right, that Rhaegar had little choice in what he did.

Thx for the response man.

 

[King Ned Stark]

28 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I enjoyed very much your take on a subject I've spent long hours thinking about. I'm glad you liked some of my thoughts. Look forward to more discussion when you feel better. Get well.

Thx.  Now I'm torn, your reasoning is much more Martinesque, buy mine, well mine is mine.  Just kidding, that's the bourbon.

In truth, there are things I like better about your theory, but I'm a bit blindsided by you, TBH.  My take does romanticize Rhaegar a bit, which is not my intention, I like Robert more than Rhaegar, and maybe that's my like of Ned.

But we agree on the main principle, that more or less, Rhaegar was forced to crown Lyanna, right?

 

 

[Macgregor of the North]

I too think Rhaegar was forced into crowning Lyanna but it was his own interpretations from a certain meeting and his own beliefs in Prophecy that pushed him in the end. 

This is speculation and a theory of mine I laid out elsewhere but this is the gist of it.

I think Rhaegar had been meeting with the Ghost of high heart and one particular meeting left him scratching his head after being told some symbolic type stuff that he did not understand at the time. Maybe something involving a She Wolf and a Laughing tree, or something to that effect. 

He then attended the Harrenhal Tourney its said with a political view to join with certain Lords in an attempt to plot the removal of his father from power. 

What I think happens is that he sees Lyanna (the She Wolf) at the opening feast with her soft side and her fierce and feisty side, crying at his song, then turning on her brother to pour the wine over his head after he teased her. His thoughts drift back to what the GOHH (possibly) told him and he takes a mental note of this girl. 

Rhaegar I firmly believe is already on the lookout for a potential mother for the third head of the Dragon because Elia was so ill after the birth of Rhaenys (bedridden for six months), and he likely has his worries for her health after the upcoming birth of the son he will later name Aegon. He is right to be worried and has every reason to believe that Elia will birth him no more children, that is common sense I think. 

What I think maybe happens next is that Rhaegar finds out that the She Wolf who he noticed before at the feast is actually the Knight of the Laughing tree and he is further drawn to her as a potential mother of the third head of the Dragon which he craves. My theory goes that the GOHH's symbolic descriptions match up with with this feisty young lady he has newly met and he feels compelled to actually win this Tourney and crown her and possibly follow through with his desire to have her be the mother of the third head of the Dragon.

I think at this stage we are not in a true love story. Rhaegar no doubt has some early feelings for the girl and notices her wild beauty but I think that mostly it's her compatibility as the mother of the third head that has been driving him to make the connection with her and this is the thoughts going through his head at the Tourney. 

Her softness at hearing his song, her feisty side turning on her brother, her performance in the lists and her reasons for it which show her strength and honour, these are reasons enough I believe for Rhaegar to feel compelled to crown Lyanna the Queen of Love and beauty, taking his and her connection to a higher level as he is seriously considering her for the role of the mother of the third head of the Dragon of the Prophecy his whole life is driven by. 

Just a theory of mine but I felt like contributing it to the thread. This sees the romantic angle covered, I do believe there is a small romantic angle to this story but it's not fully what drove Rhaegar actions. What I think ultimately drove his actions was Prophecy. This is the Rhaegar we know, he is very heavily driven by Prophecy and has been his whole life. The books (GRRM) has went to some lengths to show us this. 

[Sly Wren]

16 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

So, despite being Mad, Aerys is somewhat capable of using public sentiment, lies, and underhanded tactics to keep his rivals from gaining too much support against the throne.

And this is where I'll delve into some tinfoilery, or at least speculation using a different lense.  Aerys, paranoid as they come, was worried about Rhaegar's growing influence, and possibly about a power. bloc Rickard was building against him.  People have been asking for a long time, myself included, why on earth would Rhaegar undermine his own coup by naming Lyanna as QoLaB.

 Well, what if Aerys made him present Lyanna with the laurel of blue roses to drive a wedge between his two rivals.  I know it sounds crazy, and probably is, but it is the Mad King after all. And, it would be similar tactics he had used before, using leverage (Elia and Ashara were there) to bring his opponents low and make himself seem more desirable.  Maybe that explains why Ashara was dishonored, though that seems hard to fit in, and why Rhaegar entered the lists, and why Barristan wonders about being a better knight and not having Rhaegar's trust.  If, and yeah it's a big if, Aerys somehow compelled Rhaegar to undermine himself, Rhaegar had to ensure victory, and possibly ordered his men to stand down and let him win, further bringing Rhaegar low, and making him seem weak in the eyes of his knights and men.

The plan, if it indeed worked out that way, would've worked if not for the honor of Jon Arryn.

You know, you're not actually paranoid if they are out to get ya.  Aerys was crazy, maybe crazy like a fox.

Like I said, this is not a pet theory of mine, and maybe has been presented before.  Anyway, tear it down or build on it, would enjoy seeing what you guys think.

Sorry for the length.

1. Never apologize for length--especially when this isn't that long. 

2. I completely agree that Aerys fits the profile for setting this thing up--I asserted my own argument on this point a while back. 

3. I do also think it may have been Rhaegar himself, though. Angry that those lords are messing with his attempts to get control of the country. Or even Rhaegar in cahoots with Tywin, since those two seem just ducky fine with the idea of Aerys getting dead during the Defiance of Duskendale.

4. If it were Aerys, that would fit with the Bael Tale somewhat--that blue rose was all about sticking it to an enemy. No romance.

5. Though if it were Rhaegar sticking it to the STAB alliance, that would also fit the Bael Tale--sticking it to an enemy through a daughter.

One way or another--I do think something not remotely romantic was behind the giving of that rose crown. And Aerys would definitely fit--he's not a romantic animal.

[Frey family reunion]

18 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

A recent topic about why Steffon failed to find Rhaegar a bride of Valyrian blood got me thinking about the Mad King, as I posited that Aerys's actual plan was to stunt Rhaegar's influence in court and around the realm.  First he sought a foreign bride that would bring his heir no new allies in Westeros, and when that failed, opted for a bride of known "delicacy" that could not travel when she was young, and perhaps would be too frail to produce heirs for Rhaegar whom Aerys was starting to see as a growing threat to his reign.

Now, Martin, I believe has crafted these mysteries very carefully, so as to leave them virtually unsolvable through the text alone.  However, Martin does seem adept at keeping his characters' actions consistent.  So using what text I could find, along with character motive and opportunity, I have tried to take a contrarian view at some long debated mysteries.  This is not so much a theory as it is an attempt to put a different lense on the subject and see what the board thinks, most of which are smarter and better versed in the text than myself.  Feel free to shoot it down or add to it, here goes.

Starting with Aerys, we get the impressiom that he can be charming, but also petty, jealous, and cruel.  Aerys and Tywin start down a bad road.

So we see the jealous and grasping Aerys, who will lie and deceive to make himself look better and others look worse.  Then later:

So we see Aerys could have rid himself of Tywin, but preferred to keep him close until he could bring his Hand low.  Only after he acquired Jaime in the KG, and had leverage over Tywin and humiliated him by leaving him a dwarf as his only heir did he finally release Tywin from his post.  And then the mistrust starts to bleed into Rhaegar.

And.

So, despite being Mad, Aerys is somewhat capable of using public sentiment, lies, and underhanded tactics to keep his rivals from gaining too much support against the throne.

And this is where I'll delve into some tinfoilery, or at least speculation using a different lense.  Aerys, paranoid as they come, was worried about Rhaegar's growing influence, and possibly about a power. bloc Rickard was building against him.  People have been asking for a long time, myself included, why on earth would Rhaegar undermine his own coup by naming Lyanna as QoLaB.

 Well, what if Aerys made him present Lyanna with the laurel of blue roses to drive a wedge between his two rivals.  I know it sounds crazy, and probably is, but it is the Mad King after all. And, it would be similar tactics he had used before, using leverage (Elia and Ashara were there) to bring his opponents low and make himself seem more desirable.  Maybe that explains why Ashara was dishonored, though that seems hard to fit in, and why Rhaegar entered the lists, and why Barristan wonders about being a better knight and not having Rhaegar's trust.  If, and yeah it's a big if, Aerys somehow compelled Rhaegar to undermine himself, Rhaegar had to ensure victory, and possibly ordered his men to stand down and let him win, further bringing Rhaegar low, and making him seem weak in the eyes of his knights and men.

The plan, if it indeed worked out that way, would've worked if not for the honor of Jon Arryn.

You know, you're not actually paranoid if they are out to get ya.  Aerys was crazy, maybe crazy like a fox.

Like I said, this is not a pet theory of mine, and maybe has been presented before.  Anyway, tear it down or build on it, would enjoy seeing what you guys think.

Sorry for the length.

This is actually a fairly decent theory, but I'm wondering if either Rhaegar or Aerys would have been aware of the problems awarding Lyanna with a blue rose crown would have caused.

If we look at the World Book, the crowning of Love and Beauty was a tradition started by the Gardner Kings in the Reach.  It was basically an award given to a Lady both in regards to her beauty and her character.  It did not necessarily connote a romantic relationship between the given and the recipient of the award.  And in fact, given that Rhaegar was so invested in Elia's unborn child, I doubt Rhaegar intended his crowning of Lyanna to be considered a romantic gesture.  I think it was given for one of two reasons:  1) as a sign of respect to Lyanna, if he got an inkling that she Had something to do with the Knight of the Laughing Tree, or 2) he was in fact trying to curry favor with the Stark clan.

Even the maester of the World Book theorizes that Rhaegar may have done this to try and curry favor from the Starks.

(This tourney probably was greatly inspired by Sir Walter Scott's tourney in Ivanhoe.  We have a mystery knight (well multiple mystery knights) and the crowning a Queen of Love and Beauty.  When the mystery knight wins the tourney, Prince John suggests that the mystery knight should crown a particular lady.  The text explains that Prince John makes this pronouncement, for among other reasons, to curry favor from the Lady's father. And yes, the mystery knight chooses instead to crown the object of his desire, but if I had to guess Martin is somehow subverting this tale in his take on the mystery knight.) 

Apparently the legend of Bael the Bard is not a particularly well known legend.  At least Jon who grew up in Winterfell never heard it.  So it is very possible that neither Rhaegar nor Aerys would not have been aware of what a crown of blue roses may have signified to a Stark who was in fact aware of this Wildling legend.

So perhaps an attempt to either curry favor with the Starks or to simply award Lyanna for her strength of character, went horribly awry.

[SFDanny]

22 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

Thx.  Now I'm torn, your reasoning is much more Martinesque, buy mine, well mine is mine.  Just kidding, that's the bourbon.

In truth, there are things I like better about your theory, but I'm a bit blindsided by you, TBH.  My take does romanticize Rhaegar a bit, which is not my intention, I like Robert more than Rhaegar, and maybe that's my like of Ned.

But we agree on the main principle, that more or less, Rhaegar was forced to crown Lyanna, right?

Sorry, I wasn't trying to blindside you. I was only trying to contribute my own ideas on the topic you raise which I find extremely interesting.

As to whether or not Rhaegar was forced to crown Lyanna, I think that depends on what you mean by "forced". My thinking is that he had no real choice, or a "Hobson's choice" as it is called after his encounters with the representatives of the STAB alliance make it clear they have no interest in helping him set aside the king in favor of Rhaegar's own rule. He can join with his father and try to continue the Targaryen dynasty's hold on Westeros, or he can watch it end. Neither choice is what the Crown Prince wants so he has to decide between the two choices and he chooses his father. I think the choice of the way in which he conveys his message is entirely his own. Crafted to, like his father, hide the threat beneath the "honor" bestowed. It is then up to the High Lords of the STAB alliance to consider what an open break with the crown could cost them, when father and son are united, and whether or not they want to go on with their plans. The answer comes, I think, in the upcoming marriage of Brandon Stark to Catelyn Tully. Here I should say, I believe there is more to the response of the STAB alliance. I think they likely move the marriage of Lyanna and Robert up as well. They want these ties formalized and consummated - as soon as possible to prevent Royal intervention. What then is Rhaegar's and Aerys's response?

I think it is in reality not a joint response. If it was, Rhaegar would have ridden to King's Landing to put his prize in a tower room of the Red Keep. Instead he takes Lyanna some place outside of anyone else's control but his own. Somewhere Aerys can't find them. Now we are beginning to get to where simple political intrigue does not explain the actions of Rhaegar, and perhaps the actions of Lyanna. Now, we are also talking about things like love, honor, indebtedness, and the belief in prophecy may hold a greater sway than political calculation. So, while I argue the act of the crowning is mainly a political act of necessity on Rhaegar's part to show a consolidated united front of father and son, so too do I argue that is short lived as events overtake the players. With the push to complete the marriage alliances coming upon them and a chance meeting of Rhaegar and Lyanna making them choose their paths, I think Rhaegar again must choose between very few choices, none of which are particularly likely to succeed. This time he chooses for Lyanna.

My thoughts anyway.

[Macgregor of the North]

@SFDanny

Always interesting thoughts as usual. You know my theory on all this already as i think we chatted on my Rhaegar thread. 

I had a couple of questions. Why are you dead set that the STAB bloc wanted to restore seven Kingdoms where they had a King in the North, Vale, Stormlands etc. There's nothing like that in the books to my knowledge and you say it quite matter of factly. 

Also if Rhaegar is crowning Lyanna as a threat to show unity between him and his father and a Targaryen solidity then I think everybody would have seen through that easily enough, im quite sure that it was a very popular rumour in the realm that there were tensions between father and son and that there were plots abound to remove Aerys. 

Also, if Rhaegar really was only thinking politically, and he had Lords at the Tourney already that would have backed him up, which I presume is true as he's looking to build a power bloc to overthrow his father, then he could have taken Lyanna right there after the Tourney. 

Some time passes between the time he sees her again, she could easily have been married to Robert by then and the STAB bloc could have been growing stronger every day and they could have had a force at Kings Landing ready to take it. 

Theres enough time between the Tourney and Rhaegar seeing Lyanna again for the STAB bloc to be strong enough to remove both Rhaegar and his father. If Rhaegar is so set on political matters and wants to send a message to the STAB then why just let them all leave the Tourney to go their separate ways to grow in strength, taking the lovely prize (Lyanna) he sent the threat through, with them?.

Why not take Lyanna in hand before they have the chance to, I'm quite sure the STAB bloc people at the Tourney weren't there in force with enough numbers to stop this happening, they never had any huge armies with them, but the Royal forces would have been quite high in numbers. 

[SFDanny]

4 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@SFDanny

Always interesting thoughts as usual. You know my theory on all this already as i think we chatted on my Rhaegar thread. 

I had a couple of questions. Why are you dead set that the STAB bloc wanted to restore seven Kingdoms where they had a King in the North, Vale, Stormlands etc. There's nothing like that in the books to my knowledge and you say it quite matter of factly. 

Macgregor of the North, all great questions, but unfortunately I can't get to most of them until tomorrow night. My apologies. Let me deal with the first, if I may and I'll try to respond to the others tomorrow.

I believe I can show that the STAB bloc is something unique in Westerosi history. It is so in that it is bloc of High Lords aimed at removing the Targaryens from power. The ties that bind it together all predate the actions of the throne against them - the naming of Jaime to the Kingsguard being the first of which we know. 

We also know that it wasn't set up to put one of its own on the Iron Throne until very late in the rebellion. The decision to put Robert on the Throne comes with a debate over whether or not Ned or Jon Arryn are better candidates. They decide to make this claim around the time of the Trident, and can't have made the decision earlier than the start of the rebellion because Ned's name is in the discussion. You don't decide to make the second son of the North the new king over his father and elder brother. The decision has to come after Brandon's and Rickard's death. So, in the pre rebellion days what plan held the bloc together? Again, it's not to put Robert or Jon on the throne or there need not be any further discussion involving Ned. Hoster Tully was part of the bloc, but he isn't even considered amongst the candidacies of Ned, Jon, and Robert. So we are left with possibly this all was built to put either Lord Rickard, or Brandon, or someone outside the bloc on the throne, or perhaps something different.

Obviously one doesn't build a bloc to put the son of the High Lord of the North on the Iron Throne. Brandon is a charismatic fellow with great ambitions, but he isn't considered before his father, while his father lives. No, if there is an agreement amongst the bloc to put anyone on the Iron Throne it is Rickard.

But why not someone else like another of the High Lords of the Realm? Prince Doran is a great partisan of Rhaegar's claim to the Iron Throne because it means his grandson will one day be king. As such they are outside the realm of possible members of the bloc. That really only leaves Mace Tyrell and Tywin Lannister as candidates outside the bloc. But I would submit it makes no sense to build a power bloc to put someone outside your inner circle on the throne. You can't be sure of what they would do once they had power. That leaves out Mace.

Which brings this question down to Rickard or Tywin. Rickard has been crucial in building this power bloc. It is his Southron Ambitions that span a decade that creates it. Why would he hand over the throne to Tywin? Tywin who has been trying to build his own power base with the Targaryens for the last twenty years. No, it is Rickard or no one.

But here is the rub. How does the bloc get Tywin to agree to enter into it without an agreement to put him on the throne? Tywin agrees by allowing his son and heir to marry Lysa Tully. So, if it is not to put Tywin on the throne, then what is it that the rebel bloc has to offer to him that will induce him to agree to such a marriage alliance? It is only one thing. An alliance of equals dedicated to a new division of Westeros as equals. The creation of a new Kingdom of the Rock, and all the others. That would be a powerful inducement that could win Tywin to the alliance, and I think, after he sees all his plans with Rhaegar and Cersei go up in smoke, one that I think he would consider. Anything less than this or turning over the throne to Tywin, I think is doomed to failure.

What I think is going on in the formation of the pre rebellion bloc are ties that start as friendships built in the War of the Ninepenny Kings which blossom into a plan to restore the old kingdoms based on the fundamental weakness of Targaryen overlordship without dragons. I think it is initially meant to be nonviolent as possible, and based on the exchange of marriage partners amongst the great houses as the precursor to any action. The action being the joint renunciation of the High Lords oaths of fealty to the Iron Throne. If enough to the High Lords hold together, they can do this without the Targaryens being able to do a thing. For a century the Targaryen Kings have relied on playing one house against another and the tradition built by dragon's fire. That is no longer a threat. As long as the other High Lords do not rally to the Targaryen cause they have great promise the other noble houses that have been marrying into the High Lords families and pledging them fealty will by in large stay with their own High Lords and deprive the Targaryens of any meaningful power base outside the Crownlands and Dorne. One has to like their chance of success.

Now all of this went up in flames. Quite literally when Lord Rickard was roasted to death before the Iron Throne. What is left is the promised betrothal of Catelyn going to Ned by custom and the friendship of the Vale and Robert with Ned. In the face of this bloody crackdown by Aerys before the STAB bloc was ready to move, the only thing to do is fight for one's lives and figure out where the pieces fall later. But it seems clear to me that Rickard's plans and the plans agreed to by all the STAB bloc entail a sharing of power through the reestablishment of the old kingdoms.

I'll be happy to respond more on this if you have questions, along with the others you have already laid out tomorrow. 

[Macgregor of the North]

@SFDanny

While I thank you for your thoughts i of course have more questions hehe, you knew I would. 

I was hoping to see you present something from the books that showed that there was some sort of plan to establish seven Kingdoms again and replace the Targaryens with seven Kingdoms ruling themselves like old times.

There isn't any hint whatsoever of that I've found, though I've checked. Also, I'm not sure there was any big massive debate between Robert and Ned and any others who was to be King, more like they thrust it on Robert and his Targ blood was brought up at some point. Robert didn't want the throne, he wanted Lyanna back, he makes that clear. It seems that Ned urged him to take the throne as he had defeated Rhaegar and shown that he could unite the realm with strength and make people love him and follow him. Jon Arryn would have simply agreed with Ned and/or vice versa. 

And let's face it, back then Robert was a great choice for King given his performance in the rebellion, and nobody could have opposed the choice if Robert decided to rule. 

But if there was an agreement in place at the time of the Tourney in late 281AC (that's what your saying I think) that the Targaryens were to be removed to make way for seven Kings to govern themselves instead of being ruled from one man, then why when all was said and done and the Rebellion was finished didn't they just decide to keep the plan?.

Jon Arryn was alive and if he had still wanted to wear a crown as King of the Vale like his ancestors  (as per the original plan) he would have just needed to say so and Robert would have let it be. 

Same with Hoster, and even Ned would have likely taken himself back North to rule his Lands with a crown of old, especially if it was his fathers wish before he died, that there be a King in the North once more. 

Like I said, Robert had no massive desire to rule the whole realm, he would have quite happily settled on the Stormlands as per the original plan, spawning bastards aplenty. 

Im sure even Tywin, after years of ridicule from Aerys would have loved to head back to the rock with a crown and be King. 

So if there was an original plan in place at the Tourney, which Robert would have been part of (the plan I mean) as he had been Lord of Storms End for three years and a man grown at nineteen, it's very strange they never went through with it in the end if that's what the STAB Bloc wanted. 

I'll press this point again, if Rickard wanted there to be seven Kingdoms again and for there to be a King in the North like days of old, wouldn't Ned have pushed to follow through with what his father wished for before his death, rather than push for Robert to take the Iron throne?, which he never really wanted anyway. That would have been in line with Neds character with his honour and duty and all that.

Below I'll leave a couple of quotes.

AGOT NED VII:

"Robert sat down again. "Damn you, Ned Stark. You and Jon Arryn, I loved you both. What have you done to me? You were the one should have been king, you or Jon."

"You had the better claim, Your Grace." 

"I told you to drink, not to argue. You made me king, you could at least have the courtesy to listen when I talk, damn you. Look at me, Ned. Look at what kinging has done to me. Gods, too fat for my armor, how did it ever come to this?"

Here Robert shows that he didn't even want to be King, that Jon and Ned made him King. What I can't get with though is that if Robert didn't fight the war to be King (he actually fought it to get Lyanna back and kill all Targaryens), and he didn't even really want to be King, and there was a plan in place to have seven Kingdoms again which Robert was a part of, then why didn't he just do it. And why did Ned push for Robert to be King if his father had a dying wish to have a King in the North again?. 

AGOT NED II:

"You avenged Lyanna at the Trident," Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

"That did not bring her back." Robert looked away, off into the grey distance. "The gods be damned. It was a hollow victory they gave me. A crown … it was the girl I prayed them for. Your sister, safe … and mine again, as she was meant to be. I ask you, Ned, what good is it to wear a crown? The gods mock the prayers of kings and cowherds alike."

Here these are Roberts truest thoughts and prayers, he never wanted to be King. It was thrust upon him really and he took it but if there was a plan in place to divide the Kingdoms up into seven Kings again then why didn't he just do that, especially if Hoster and Jon (who were part of the plan and willing to be Kings) are still alive, and Ned is alive and able and would be more than willing to be a King in the North like his father wanted. 

I just don't believe there was such a plan. The Starks had marriage alliances with the south before. House Royce, House Rogers but weren't planning a full scale seven Kingdom revamp. 

Maybe they were just solidifying ties as Aerys rule was becoming quite unstable and his unpredictability worried them. 

Theres plenty reasons why the STAB bloc were getting tight but it need not be that they were all looking to be Kings over their Kingdoms again, which we don't hear anything about in the books incidentally. 

I'll chat about this and the other points (this likely effects your other points too) when your back on.

 

[Macgregor of the North]

@SFDanny Just me again for when you return to the thread. I see you mention the friendships beginning in the War of the Ninepenny Kings and this blossoms into the plan to restore Westeros back to the seven Kingdoms of old, without Targaryens. 

Im just curious as to where you fit Steffon into all that?.

Also, we never hear of any great friendship between Hoster, Rickard and Jon Arryn either really that begun in the war (260AC) although I suppose we should assume there was great friendships struck during the war, but that's all it is really though is it, an assumption without textual evidence.

Dont people all just assume that Rickard, Hoster, Jon and Steffon were all Great War buds and because of this the wardships and betrothals all flowed from there along with the massive plots and intrigues?. 

Its a full 10-11 years after the war before any wardships begin (Ned and Robert) and 16-17 years after the war any betrothals are made (Cat/Brandon). This I suppose can account for some friendliness between Houses Stark, Tully, Arryn and Baratheon after the war but i don't think it means they all became great friends in the war and from there blossomed a plan to form a STAB power bloc with a view to restoring the Kingdoms to the way they were of old, and with no Targaryens. 

I don't think there has been any solid textual proof found anywhere that Steffon was anything but loyal to Aerys right up until his death, remaining staunch with his ties to House Targaryen so I always find it hard to believe the ideas that these four Houses built a friendship in the WT9PK and from there built the STAB power bloc to re establish seven Kingdoms without Targaryens.

I know there obviously was plans that involved solidifying the Houses together but we must also remember that while Steffon consented to sending Robert to the Eyrie to be a ward (around 270/271) he never played a part in marriage discussions concerning Robert and Lyanna as these were very very likely to have taken place after his death in 278AC.

[King Ned Stark]

21 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Snip

No need to apologize, I should have been more clear with my response.  You blindsided me because you have a unique and interesting take on Rhaegar's motives, which is precisely why I started this thread, I read a lot more than I post on this forum.  I've read a lot of R+L=J threads, but haven't been satisfied with Rhaegar's motives.

Rhaegar crowning Lyanna because of puppy love, showing her respect (because of tKotLT), or as a reprimand for Brandon doesn't sit well with me.  He is the crown prince who for at least a decade has been stooped in political and prophetical intrigue.  That's how you blindsided me, is all.  

So you have it as more of a last ditch political move, to offset the "southern" power bloc?  It's plausible, after all we are beat over the head with how the Stark's, and maybe the north in particular take exception to southern rule; we have Brandon Snow (theoretically), Brandon Stark, and Greatjon Umber.  The only people who yearn more than the north for sovereignty seems to be the Ironborn.

Martin weaves in-world rumors well, like things happen in the the real world, whereas 10 or 15 years later I could see how things have been twisted or forgotten.  Again, I say well done.  All I wanted was for people to look at a different angle, where Rhaegar is a complete jackass.

@Macgregor of the North, nice, I think I read your theory on that.  I do agree that prophecy influenced Rhaegar's decisions, specifically concerning the crowning and kidnapping of Lyanna, as I think Rhaegar "fell upon" Lyanna in the riverlands after meeting with the GoHH.  Thx for the response.

@Sly Wren, thx for your reply, that's a lot to take in, there are wrinkles from SFDanny and MacotN and yourself that I agree with and don't agree with, and others that have made me rethink things.  I think we are all beating around the same bush here, which is what I had hoped for, really smart people who know the text better than me that think Rhaegar just didn't see some cute 15 yr old and was like, ahh, forget prophecy and my crazy dad, I'm just gonna go after that.

[King Ned Stark]

On 1/25/2017 at 5:12 PM, Frey family reunion said:

This is actually a fairly decent theory, but I'm wondering if either Rhaegar or Aerys would have been aware of the problems awarding Lyanna with a blue rose crown would have caused.

If we look at the World Book, the crowning of Love and Beauty was a tradition started by the Gardner Kings in the Reach.  It was basically an award given to a Lady both in regards to her beauty and her character.  It did not necessarily connote a romantic relationship between the given and the recipient of the award.  And in fact, given that Rhaegar was so invested in Elia's unborn child, I doubt Rhaegar intended his crowning of Lyanna to be considered a romantic gesture.  I think it was given for one of two reasons:  1) as a sign of respect to Lyanna, if he got an inkling that she Had something to do with the Knight of the Laughing Tree, or 2) he was in fact trying to curry favor with the Stark clan.

Even the maester of the World Book theorizes that Rhaegar may have done this to try and curry favor from the Starks.

(This tourney probably was greatly inspired by Sir Walter Scott's tourney in Ivanhoe.  We have a mystery knight (well multiple mystery knights) and the crowning a Queen of Love and Beauty.  When the mystery knight wins the tourney, Prince John suggests that the mystery knight should crown a particular lady.  The text explains that Prince John makes this pronouncement, for among other reasons, to curry favor from the Lady's father. And yes, the mystery knight chooses instead to crown the object of his desire, but if I had to guess Martin is somehow subverting this tale in his take on the mystery knight.) 

Apparently the legend of Bael the Bard is not a particularly well known legend.  At least Jon who grew up in Winterfell never heard it.  So it is very possible that neither Rhaegar nor Aerys would not have been aware of what a crown of blue roses may have signified to a Stark who was in fact aware of this Wildling legend.

So perhaps an attempt to either curry favor with the Starks or to simply award Lyanna for her strength of character, went horribly awry.

Fair point, which kind of brings this thing whole circle.  Was it scandalous?  Could either have calculated or planned the fallout?

I had never really thought about the Stark kids (or a theory least Jon) being ignorant of Bael the bard story, like all the Stark kids being unaware of the Knight of the Laughing Tree story.  Interesting thought, thx.

[King Ned Stark]

One other thing, just a gut feeling, but I believe Martin is gonna make Rhaegar out to be a pretty great man, maybe not Ned  Stark great, but the opposite of crazy Targ people.  Just my thoughts on it, but it colors my opinions.

[SFDanny]

13 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@SFDanny Just me again for when you return to the thread. I see you mention the friendships beginning in the War of the Ninepenny Kings and this blossoms into the plan to restore Westeros back to the seven Kingdoms of old, without Targaryens. 

Im just curious as to where you fit Steffon into all that?.

I don't think we know for sure. I'm inclined to think of Steffon as someone who sees an opening in the deterioration of the Aerys/Tywin relationship and seizes the opportunity to further his ties to Aerys. Or this could just be Aerys turning to an unwilling Steffon. Too little to go on, but the fact Steffon is sent on his mission to find Rhaegar's bride tells us there is likely some trust between the two men - if Aerys is capable of trust. As to the Steffon's role in the formation of the STAB bloc, this too is unknown, but I'm convinced the major role in bringing Storm's End into the bloc falls to Maester Cressen.

[SFDanny]

23 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

 

Also if Rhaegar is crowning Lyanna as a threat to show unity between him and his father and a Targaryen solidity then I think everybody would have seen through that easily enough, im quite sure that it was a very popular rumour in the realm that there were tensions between father and son and that there were plots abound to remove Aerys. 

Also, if Rhaegar really was only thinking politically, and he had Lords at the Tourney already that would have backed him up, which I presume is true as he's looking to build a power bloc to overthrow his father, then he could have taken Lyanna right there after the Tourney. 

Just as in the real world, political alliances change in Martin's world. We see it happen with the Tyrell's shifting from supporting Renly to supporting the Lannisters. So, why people seem to think the politics of the pre-rebellion is frozen in the factional struggle between father and son is beyond me. There are different political interests that change as events bring them into conflict. For the Targaryens the growth of the STAB bloc and the almost successful inclusion of the Lannisters into the bloc with the nearly completed agreement to marry Jaime to Lysa represents a huge fundamental shift in the balance of power. The rebuff of these High Lords to Rhaegar's scheme to replace his father lays out this pending shift for the Targaryens and the need for both father and son to try to stop it. I would suggest the response of Rhaegar honoring Lyanna is the perfect bookend to Aerys response by honoring Jaime. Both are aimed at stopping the marriage alliances of the STAB bloc from coming into existence. Both send the Targaryen message without forcing a showdown with these High Lords. Which is the last thing either father or son wants in that political climate. The outcome of such a struggle is not clear.

It is late here in San Francisco, so let me respond more tomorrow. @King Ned Stark let me also get back to your post tomorrow. Thanks again for the discussion.