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Thoughts on the second Dance and the point of the whole thing


Illyrio Mo'Parties

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I've always felt like the Dance was going to be unnecessary - who gives a shit about another war between humans when the fucking alien ice monsters are coming? - but I suppose the point is that, when you and everyone you know are killed, it probably doesn't make much difference if it was Others or dragons that did it. (Nor some army fighting for some king.)

Quote

Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.

Perhaps that's what this whole thing is coming down to: the winds of winter are just as bad as the dancing dragons... and maybe so's the game of thrones, too.

Is that where this whole thing is going?

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2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I've always felt like the Dance was going to be unnecessary - who gives a shit about another war between humans when the fucking alien ice monsters are coming? - but I suppose the point is that, when you and everyone you know are killed, it probably doesn't make much difference if it was Others or dragons that did it. (Nor some army fighting for some king.)

Perhaps that's what this whole thing is coming down to: the winds of winter are just as bad as the dancing dragons... and maybe so's the game of thrones, too.

Is that where this whole thing is going?

Considering that the War of the Five Kings was a huge folly already - and the current wars, rebellions, skirmishes, and invasions pretty much are, too - I think that's what the story will be about.

However, I doubt that this Second Dance thing is going to cover all that much time. It will be a Dance only insofar as two Targaryen pretenders (and Euron, and possibly even Stannis) will fight against each other, one of them female. The idea that we'll get a long war sort of resembling the First Dance doesn't make much sense. Aegon would never stand a chance against Dany if he doesn't have the overwhelming majority of the noble houses who still can fight at this point in the story on his side.

And if the Westerosi people are both more or less pleased with how Aegon is performing as king as well as tired of war they will have no reason to actually declare for Queen Daenerys. Why the hell should they? If Aegon plays the propaganda card right he could work the people into a frenzy over the savage hordes she is bringing to Westeros, though.

But still, it is pretty obvious that Dany is not likely to going to arrive in Westeros in the next book but winter will inevitably progress in the next books, hopefully more than just a few months. And that will greatly cripple the capabilities of the people to actually wage an all-out war. The First Dance began in autumn when the Realm had been at peace for decades with two parties dominating the politics for about two decades.

There is nothing of this sort right now. Dany will come by ship and Aegon can either challenge her at sea or shortly after her landing. Then and there this war will be decided. Even if all of Westeros hates Daenerys most of them will be powerless to stop her thanks to the wars they are fighting right now.

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The point is there's three healthy dragons whom will soon have three capable riders, and instead of going and toasting the Others and ending the threat of destruction to the realm in a morning, they're going to fight amongst themselves.

And when they're finished dancing the realm will be weakened, plagued by disease, many of the best leaders dead, fighting reserves exhausted and the dragons made incapable of fighting. Rhaegal probably dead with Aegon, Drogon a fireless thrall of Euron and Viserion probably extremely injured.

And it will serve arcs, the chaos Sansa needs to play her way to queen, the war Dany didn't have to fight that will turn the realm against her.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

However, I doubt that this Second Dance thing is going to cover all that much time. It will be a Dance only insofar as two Targaryen pretenders (and Euron, and possibly even Stannis) will fight against each other, one of them female. The idea that we'll get a long war sort of resembling the First Dance doesn't make much sense.

Warning: the below is a bit rambly. I'm trying to discuss nebulous concepts, and failing.

My previous impression has been that George has been trying very hard to stick to the schema he laid out in the early 90's book 1, game of thrones; book 2, dance of dragons; book 3, winds of winter. But "book 1" has now grown into 5 books and counting1, and the way the "tale has grown in the telling"... well, the story is under a lot of strain trying to keep the Others off-page, and the seams are starting to show. When book 1 starts with "winter is coming", and winter's only just technically arrived at the end of book 5... if he still intends to have the Dance precede the Winds, then in my view he's making a terrible mistake. The story's been going on way too long to keep moving at the same pace: if the dragon war is intended to be largely done and dusted before the Others arrive, then that makes the dance kind of redundant.

See, this here is my previous understanding of the big picture: humanity is too busy fighting amongst itself to prepare itself, united, for the true dangers. Something of a cliche, but GRRM is (a) a hippie, which means it's probably a global warming/nuclear weapons metaphor, and (b) a sci-fi writer, and science fiction writers tend to love the whole "one world united" idea. Regardless, that's where it seemed to be heading; that's what it all seemed to be about.

But I think that while that may have been the story he had in mind at the beginning, it's not the story he's ended up telling. It feels very much like we're approaching the end game - more so because he's so often said that this will be 7 books. And unless he's playing silly buggers with the numbers and AFFC/ADWD is counted as 1 book, then 5 books down, we're approaching the end. And as you say, the second Dance just can't cover as much time, nor be as all-encompassing, as the first. Not at least, in my view, without artificially prolonging the conflict with the Others. It would simply beggar belief: it would put a bullet right thru the suspension of disbelief: it would be so obvious that he was trying to finish the dragon shit before bringing in the ice zombies. And it'd be totally lame.

The tale grew in the telling, but it's not just bigger than he expected: it grew in a different direction, too. The way the story is structured - the danger of the Others having been pounded into our heads, the danger of dragons not so much - it's now the case that a dance of the dragons 2.0 would basically fulfil the same function as the Wot5K, i.e. a distraction from the bigger picture.

The way I see it, he has three good options left.

1. He can basically cut the Dance altogether. This is a little unsatisfying but not as unsatisfying as giving us 2 more in-story years of dragon-fighting while the Others are still implausibly and frustratingly kept in the green room.

2. He can reverse his original order: let the Others come before the dragons. This would actually be an interesting surprise, if Dany saved Westeros from a supernatural evil and then turned out to be just as bad.

3. My preferred option - and, full disclosure, my preferred option even if he had managed to stick to his original schema - my preferred option generally - is to use what I call plot accelerant. Kick the whole thing into high gear and start moving much faster, faster than the reader anticipates: it's like literary maneouvre warfare.2 In this particular instance, the implementation of this strategy would involve having the Others and the dragons hit at pretty much the same time. This would mean that neither of the original scenarios - the Dance of the Dragons or the War for the Dawn - would come off like he'd originally planned, and it'd create all sorts of plot headaches. But it could also be brilliant.

And if he does option 3, then maybe that's been the idea all along: to compare the dragons quite directly to the Others, both terrible forces of destruction, both no good.

Of course, he could just as easily pull some terrific surprise out of his arse, so we'll have to wait and see.

-------------------------------------------------------------

1. The 5th book may have been called A Dance with Dragons, but only in the loosest sense could it be said to deliver on that premise. I think GRRM gets into this problem where, despite being famously unwilling to plan his novels ahead, he does in some sense find it difficult to move on from the elements he has planned. So, he decides that this book will be called A Dance with Dragons, and by gum he sticks to it, even though in the end there's no actual dragon-dancing in the book. Shit, the fucking dragons are locked in a cage for most of it. Yes, I understand that Aegon is a figurative dragon and that various players being moved around the board are motivated by the dragons. But these are just the opening moves in the Dance. This is Act 1. And it took up the whole goddamn book called A Dance with Dragons.

2. I first saw this used, or at least noticed it consciously, in a Discworld book. Spoilers:

Spoiler

In Going Postal, there's enough foreshadowing of the post office being burnt down that you figure, all right, there's our big set-piece for the finale. It'd be a great one, after all, very dramatic, full of potential, thematically appropriate, etc, etc: it looms large as the obvious and fitting high point of the drama.

So when midway thru the book the baddie dispatches someone to burn it down, we figure the henchman will be unsuccessful... this time. And in a lesser writer's hands, that's what would have happened. But instead, he actually burns it down. This was shocking to this reader: the obviously foreshadowed conclusion had suddenly happened in the middle of the goddamn book, leaving me with absolutely no idea where it was going next. And it was at this moment that the story kicked into high gear, and kept up this accelerated pace until the end of the book.

From that point on, I was totally unable to anticipate what was coming next, because the shape of the story had suddenly been revealed to be different to the idea that I'd formed, and things were moving too quickly for me to get a new idea. Plus, it forced new and novel developments in the story, I think. It was brilliant.

Now, if GRRM could pull off something like that, I'd literally bust a nut.

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Just now, chrisdaw said:

The point is there's three healthy dragons whom will soon have three capable riders, and instead of going and toasting the Others and ending the threat of destruction to the realm in a morning, they're going to fight amongst themselves.

And when they're finished dancing the realm will be weakened, plagued by disease, many of the best leaders dead, fighting reserves exhausted and the dragons made incapable of fighting. Rhaegal probably dead with Aegon, Drogon a fireless thrall of Euron and Viserion probably extremely injured.

And it will serve arcs, the chaos Sansa needs to play her way to queen, the war Dany didn't have to fight that will turn the realm against her.

If that's the purpose, then it's totally redundant. The Game of Thrones has already done pretty much all of that; on a meta level, or in terms of structure, or whatever, the Dance would basically be repeating the same point.

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The game of thrones hasn't destroyed the dragons as weapons, hasn't lead Dany down a path that'd have everyone rightful betray her and killed off every capable leader but our POVs. Some characters will have learned from the WOT5Ks, and the dance is their chance to apply those lessons. But primarily Aegon and the dance serves Dany's arc.

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@Illyrio Mo'Parties:

George is continually wrong on the amount of books this whole thing is going to take. He can't guess how long it will take him to write a book, and he can't guess how many books it will take him to finish the story. That is a well-established fact.

I think anybody reading ADwD would agree that this book didn't set up some quick ending resolution.

The Second Dance is been foreshadowed and set up by Aegon's unexpected invasion, the fact that Arianne seems to be set up to marry Aegon, and her feelings about Daenerys. All that is going to have repercussions when Dany is coming, not after the War for the Dawn.

The Second Dance doesn't have to a large war but it will most definitely take place before the War for the Dawn (or be cut short by that). We might have other aspects tying in the fight against the Others, say, by Aegon setting himself up as the promised prince/savior based on the fact that Rhaegar also believedand Dany as a false savior, etc.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

@Illyrio Mo'Parties:

George is continually wrong on the amount of books this whole thing is going to take. He can't guess how long it will take him to write a book, and he can't guess how many books it will take him to finish the story. That is a well-established fact.

I think anybody reading ADwD would agree that this book didn't set up some quick ending resolution.

The Second Dance is been foreshadowed and set up by Aegon's unexpected invasion, the fact that Arianne seems to be set up to marry Aegon, and her feelings about Daenerys. All that is going to have repercussions when Dany is coming, not after the War for the Dawn.

The Second Dance doesn't have to a large war but it will most definitely take place before the War for the Dawn (or be cut short by that). We might have other aspects tying in the fight against the Others, say, by Aegon setting himself up as the promised prince/savior based on the fact that Rhaegar also believedand Dany as a false savior, etc.

Yep. And I think this is why GRRM is really stuck right now in getting out TWOW. He knows how the story ends, but I think he doesn't know how to get there neatly and concisely. Specifically, I think he's stuck with how to get The Dance moving and have Dany's story proceed without having the North and Others storyline proceed with it, which is basically impossible. 

With that said, the Dance will likely have to be very short if GRRM wants to finish this in 7 books. If the Wall falls at the end of TWOW, Dany better be on her way or already in Westeros for The Dance to mean anything. Otherwise, she might as well fly her ass straight to the wall because fighting Aegon won't matter.

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The supposed Dance 2.0 also bothers me. I don't see much the point of it, besides Dany smashing Aegon and maybe killing Euron if he really steals a dragon (something I'm not sure either). It is supposedly to be of importance, which means it's going to use quite a bit of narrative space. So, say goodbye to finish the series in two more books.

There is some interesting foreshadowing that it's not going to be a minor event that can be described in few chapters

Quote

Dragons," Moqorro said in the Common Tongue of Westeros... "Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all."

-Tyrion, aDwD

Which points to there will be more participants than the usual suspects (Dany, Aegon & Euron)

Then in tWoW

Spoiler

Teora gave a tiny nod, chin trembling. "They were dancing. In my dream. And everywhere the dragons danced the people died."

Which also points to it's going to be a brutal confrontation. Even more than tWo5K!!!???

As I said, I don't find the Dance 2.0 thematically necessary, but I guess GRRM has good reasons to put it in there. It is maybe as @chrisdaw said, instead of using the dragons to fight the Others they will kill each other and weaken the realm even further. Anyway, if tHoU visions tell something, Dany is going to use the dragons to fight the Others.

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The Second Dance will be the story of Dany's conquest of Westeros. George just expanded on the original idea, apparently, replacing the original evil Lannister king Jaime (or whoever else could have led an effective opposition against Daenerys) with a Targaryen pretender who, most likely, will be able to make the whole thing much more interesting and tragic.

The Second Dance should be much more gripping as a conflict because it will be a lot of good people fighting against each other rather than working together. That makes potentially for a much better story than Dany just crushing the evil Lannisters and their toadies. I think I've said that pretty early after ADwD came out - a conflict between Dany, Aegon, and possibly Stannis makes for much better entertainment than Dany against Cersei, Tywin, the Freys/Boltons, or Littlefinger.

But the war won't resemble the First Dance all that much. It won't be a succession war, it will be Daenerys Targaryen's conquest of Westeros, a conquest that has her depose another Targaryen pretender who has 'stolen' her throne. And it is most likely not going to include as many Westerosi armies and battles as the First Dance did.

If George wants to rush things Aegon will be at KL and Dany is going to land there, fight against his army there, defeat it, and take the city. Then the war will be over. In winter nobody would continue the war in Aegon's name if Aegon were dead. Not against another Targaryen with a huge army and living dragons.

George could complicate it somewhat if Arianne is pregnant with or has already given birth to Aegon's son, and they both evade capture.

If he wants to complicate things further then there could be one or multiple severe naval battles involving Euron and Dany, resulting in her losing hundreds of ships and tens of thousands of people with the survivors not being able to land at the same spot. That could force to fight an actual time-consuming campaign where Dany might have to resort to actually striking deals with some Westerosi people (which she certainly would not have to do if just showed up with 100,000 people at KL and took the city.

If Dany is not attacked at sea (or perhaps even in Essos, although that should be suicide both for Aegon and Euron) she should be able to land her armada wherever she wants to land it. Which presumably would be at KL which conveniently is a coastal city. Going to any other place would be stupidity. She certainly could send (dragonriding) envoys to Westeros before she comes in person, trying to convince various houses and lords to declare for her but her own forces should target KL and the Iron Throne from the beginning of her own campaign.

Thus I think the actual Dance can be done in one book. However, the problem will be the setup. Why are they going to fight? What will prevent them from reaching a peaceful settlement? How is Euron going to figure into all that (wouldn't he make a splendid enemy for a Dany-Aegon alliance)? What events will precede the escalation of violence on either side? And so on.

I doubt that things can escalate all that quickly between Dany and Aegon. There are some seeds on Aegon's side already but as of yet none on Dany's and you really need two determined parties for an all-out war. Getting there might take some time, especially if Dany doesn't really begin her own journey to Westeros in TWoW (or doesn't get very far after she's begun it).

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

As I said, I don't find the Dance 2.0 thematically necessary, but I guess GRRM has good reasons to put it in there. It is maybe as @chrisdaw said, instead of using the dragons to fight the Others they will kill each other and weaken the realm even further. Anyway, if tHoU visions tell something, Dany is going to use the dragons to fight the Others.

The dragons are pretty much irrelevant as weapons at this point. I doubt that will change all that much in the few months TWoW will cover. No dragons of the size of Vhagar, Meleys, Vermithor, or Silverwing will fight in that war. Drogon is right now about as large as Vermax or Arrax, and could perhaps reach the size of Sunfyre by the end of the series. That certainly would be a pretty impressive sight but hardly a really powerful game changer in a war. Daenerys' dragons will never be a threat to entire armies (especially not in winter) nor to any castles.

Thus I don't see any reason why the plot should revolve around her dragons being neutralized as weapons.

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I really don't know how the endgame is going to play out, there are many different ways it can twist and turn but with so many different plot threads it is difficult to see how they come together. I think it is entirely possible that the Dance will occur after the Others. To purely take a guess...

Arriane discovers fAegon is a fake and keeps Dorne from supporting him. Despite this Connington and Aegon take much of the Stormlands

Victarion and Barristan liberate Mereen. Moqorro betrays Victarion, Mereen ends up with most of the Iron fleet, Vic is incinerated by a dragon (The black priest bowed his head. "There is no need. The Lord of Light has shown me your worth, lord Captain. Every night in my fires I glimpse the glory that awaits you.")

Stannis takes Winterfell but is killed in the process or shortly after.

Jon comes back as leader and cleans up the North and the Riverlands. Sansa gains control of the Vale and brings it to ally with him. Asha uses Theon as a puppet to win back control of the Iron Islands. Euron doesn't really care, they have served their purpose.

Cersei regains control in Kingslanding, kills Margaery which leaves the Reach to ally with Aegon. Together they take Kingslanding but Cersei joins with Euron to flee back to the Rock. Euron does something magical to make the wall fall, he is aligned with the Others.

Winter and the Wall falls. Aegon has doubts that Jon is his brother but Connington says it is possible (he isn't but for the wrong way around). Jon does convince him the threat from beyond the wall is real. They join forces to fight and eventually defeat the Others (there will be a lot of story here but we really have no indication how it will play out).

Meanwhile Dany has gained control of a lot of Dothraki and makes her way back to Mereen where Tyrion has cleaned up the city. She liberates slaves of Volantis, Yunkai, Astapor, New Ghis and maybe even Qarth. She hears from Tyrion and Arriane that Aegon is an impostor and brings her forces across the narrow sea, thus beginning the second Dance of Dragons between her and Jon (who fights with Aegon).

 

Alternatively The North and the Vale could be fighting against the Others while Dany fights against Aegon at the same time and after defeating him comes North to save the day. But to me that would be less satisfying and I think the more cliched route.

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14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Second Dance will be the story of Dany's conquest of Westeros.

This is what I expect too, except that Moqorro prophesy suggests something else. In particular actors that we may not know yet.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

George just expanded on the original idea, apparently, replacing the original evil Lannister king Jaime (or whoever else could have led an effective opposition against Daenerys) with a Targaryen pretender who, most likely, will be able to make the whole thing much more interesting and tragic.

The Second Dance should be much more gripping as a conflict because it will be a lot of good people fighting against each other rather than working together. That makes potentially for a much better story than Dany just crushing the evil Lannisters and their toadies. I think I've said that pretty early after ADwD came out - a conflict between Dany, Aegon, and possibly Stannis makes for much better entertainment than Dany against Cersei, Tywin, the Freys/Boltons, or Littlefinger.

Certainly.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The dragons are pretty much irrelevant as weapons at this point. I doubt that will change all that much in the few months TWoW will cover. No dragons of the size of Vhagar, Meleys, Vermithor, or Silverwing will fight in that war. Drogon is right now about as large as Vermax or Arrax, and could perhaps reach the size of Sunfyre by the end of the series. That certainly would be a pretty impressive sight but hardly a really powerful game changer in a war. Daenerys' dragons will never be a threat to entire armies (especially not in winter) nor to any castles.

I think this is another problem for GRRM, how to make the dragons fearsome enough. They aren't meaningless as weapons but they are still far away of the famous dragons of yore. And there is that other dream in Arianne I in twow, about dragons killing a helluva lot of people.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Thus I don't see any reason why the plot should revolve around her dragons being neutralized as weapons.

I don't think about neutralization, but more about being used to kill people instead of Others, which is tragedy too.

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@Makk

That scenario is way too much influenced by the show. It is not likely to occur in this way in the books. Stannis is not going to die at Winterfell, Aegon will get the support of Dorne, the Riverlands won't ally with Jon Snow or the North (they have their own leaders, either Catelyn or Edmure Tully who have no reason to entertain the notion of working with either Jon Snow or Stannis), Euron is not going to bring down the Wall (there is a chance that the Others might have gotten to him and use him for their purposes now, but he is not their ally consciously), and Dany has been established as a crucial leader in the War for the Dawn since AGoT.

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

This is what I expect too, except that Moqorro prophesy suggests something else. In particular actors that we may not know yet.

Well, Moqorro could also have seen Aemon and Bloodraven. They are/were dragons, too. In addition, there is the possibility of him talking about both Targaryens and Dany's three literal dragons. And by the way, originally I saw the Teora's dream as a reference to Quentyn literally dancing with Viserion and Rhaegal as well as a reference for their rule in the coming Battle of Fire. Not necessarily for a Second Dance.

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I think this is another problem for GRRM, how to make the dragons fearsome enough. They aren't meaningless as weapons but they are still far away of the famous dragons of yore. And there is that other dream in Arianne I in twow, about dragons killing a helluva lot of people.

See above. They can kill people already. But so can other people. And they certainly can be quickly put down if a determined group of men tries to do it.

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I don't think about neutralization, but more about being used to kill people instead of Others, which is tragedy too.

Not really. Dragons clearly feed on humans in the wild. They are top predators.

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Keep in mind that the George began putting the story together, writing the first several chapters of A Game of Thrones, and developing backstories in 1991. About two years later, he presented 13 chapters and a very basic outline to his publisher. The initial concept consisted of three overlapping and intertwined major conflicts, A Game of Thrones, A Dance with Dragons, and The Winds of Winter. All three conflicts would be introduced in the first book, but the intrigue and war emanating from the Stark-Lanniister enmity would be the primary subject of the first novel. The second novel would focus on the return of the Targaryen and her dragons, and the third novel would draw together left over plot lines from the first two novels and culminate in the final battle against the Others.

Game was published three years later in 1996, followed by The Hedge Knight, A Clash of Kings in 1998, and A Storm of Swords in 2000, as the George found that the main part of the Stark-Lannister conflict took longer to tell than he anticipated. While the overall structure appears to remain intact, several character arcs and plotlines apparently morphed, and new ones developed, between 1993 and 1996. Notice that the George indicated that the Ned was set up as a false protagonist from the very beginning, but Catelyn did not accompany the Ned to King’s Landing, and Arya would not become romantically involved with Jon Snow (as far as we can tell). Apparently, the George came up with the Faceless Men plotline sometime after the 1993 letter. And it should be recognized that the George switched Daenerys’s backstory from Tyrosh to Braavos shortly before publishing Game. Sansa would not wed Joffrey and bear him a son, but she would wed Tyrion, and she would betray her family, but in a much more subtle, even innocent, way than the George initially intended. Tyrion, on the other hand, would become disillusioned with, and betray, his family. Note that there was no suggestion that Petyr was already conceived as the big bad behind the first conflict, or that Tywin would emerge as the primary antagonist to the Starks. One also wonders reading that 1993 letter whether Stannis and the Riverlands had been conceived of yet, since the George says that the North (not the Riverlands) would be consumed by war, and that Tyrion (not Jaime) would lay siege to Winterfell. Theon’s role was not hinted at in the 1993 letter, and whether the George had conceptualized the roles Euron and Dorne would play in the second (and/or third) conflict was not clear. The original Jaime seems to have morphed into Cersei, with the new Jaime becoming a very complicated character. Bran was always intended to end up physically disabled and relying on magic powers beyond the Wall, but the way he would get there was altered significantly.

Jon and Bran’s plot lines seem to be more involved with the third conflict than with the first conflict. And although we follow Daenerys all through the first conflict, she is a peripheral player during that first conflict just like Jon and Bran are. Nevertheless, the other two conflicts overlap and intertwine with each other and with the first. We do see a temporary resolution of the first conflict with Lannister defeating Stark, and Petyr being revealed as the big bad, but the young Starks are scattered, not eradicated, so the first conflict can continue into successive novels.

Two years after Storm, The Sworn Sword was published, and the Blackfyre, which was hinted at in the first novels, was introduced along with Bloodraven, who would be revealed to be the three-eyed crow much later. The Sworn Sword then, was the transition away from the first conflict toward the second and third conflicts. Feast was published in 2005, followed by the Mystery Knight in 2010, and Dance in 2012.

I find that the most intriguing change from the 1993 letter is Tyrion’s arc. Initially, he was intended to be a foil to Jon in the end. Some readers believe he has become the third head of the dragon and will ride the dragons with Jon and Daenerys to defeat the Others. Some readers believe he will not turn out to be a traditional hero, but will nevertheless provide crucial counsel to the traditional heroes all the way through the end. As for me, I believe the George initially intended for Tyrion to die fighting Jon Snow, as he made plain when he wrote that his love for Arya would “lead to a deadly rivalry between Tyrion and Jon Snow,” but then resolved to have Tyrion betray Daenerys, thus killing him sooner than expected, in presumably shocking style as was the case for the Ned and Tywin. The George did describe the second conflict in a paragraph in the 1993 letter, but that paragraph was redacted, so we can only guess at what he had to say about the second conflict then. Given the title of what was to be the second of three novels, though, we can assume that Daenerys would be confronted by a rival claimant. Whether the Blackfyre had been conceptualized in 1993, is debatable (there are many who believe that all that Blackfyre stuff is just world-building), but I think it is safe to assume that the George had always intended for an Aegon character of some sort to rival Daenerys.

We should expect the three conflicts to continue to overlap and intertwine in the final two novels. The Stark-Lannister conflict is not quite over yet. Although the Starks have been defeated, they have not been extinguished, and they are poised to come snarling back, so we should look for them to rise up and defeat the Lannisters and their allies the Freys and the Boltons, with help from the dragons, of course, Also, over the course of the next 150 chapters or so, the George will have Daenerys return to Westeros and fight, perhaps not right away, Aegon. But all the while, the danger from the North will become ever more clear and present, until (after Daenerys and Aegon have their final showdown) the men of Westeros defeat the Others, led by Jon with the aid of Bran’s magic.

In other words, the just as the Stark-Lannister conflict does not have to end before the dragons begin to dance, the dragons do not have to finish their dance before the Others sweep down from the North.

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On 25-1-2017 at 3:36 PM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

3. My preferred option - and, full disclosure, my preferred option even if he had managed to stick to his original schema - my preferred option generally - is to use what I call plot accelerant. Kick the whole thing into high gear and start moving much faster, faster than the reader anticipates: it's like literary maneouvre warfare.2 In this particular instance, the implementation of this strategy would involve having the Others and the dragons hit at pretty much the same time. This would mean that neither of the original scenarios - the Dance of the Dragons or the War for the Dawn - would come off like he'd originally planned, and it'd create all sorts of plot headaches. But it could also be brilliant.

That's where I think it is going at least now. Since 1993-1996 a lot has altered with regards to plot development and expectations. Since several years step 1 - human conlict; step 2 - outright human war; step 3 - survivors come to their senses, stick together and unite to beat the big bad foe has pretty much come the expected standard. Over a decade ago such overall arc, but told in a gritty way, would still work for high fantasy. By now it is actually rather predictable. 

Why is everyone so frustrated with Dany for staying in Mereen, because she's generally regarded to claim the IT and then join hands to defeat the Others. But quite frankly Stannis has been the one so far to realize where the real threat is and answered that call (that's your post office burning down), now warring in the North to at least make sure he can help save Westeros from the Others without having to fear the Boltons attacking him in the back.

The let's-unite-and-war-the Others, well I can't reconcile that with keeping Dany at Mereen, and possibly for several chapters with the Dothraki. It looks to me that we won't even see Dany sail for Westeros until the end of tWoW. That certainly gives Aegon and Dorne (and possibly the Tyrells) a whole book of war to remove Cersei and her children from the throne. So, Aegon and Dany are going to fight it out imo in the last book.

Meanwhile there has been no foreshadowing whatsoever for whole armies coming together to battle the Others and surviving dragons melting them down. No, we all assume that because that's what we expect  to happen, because that's usually how high fantasy normally goes. It's a trope. The only actual textual clues we have had so far about fighting the Long Night hasn't been with armies however, but the Last Hero and his twelve companions.

So, yes, I think it's highly likely that the Dance of Dragons will happen while the Others invade Weteros and thirteen heroes do what needs to be done to save the realm.

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

And it should be recognized that the George switched Daenerys’s backstory from Tyrosh to Braavos shortly before publishing Game.

I don't think this has any meaning whatsoever. There is no reason to believe George even know where or what Braavos was this early in the story.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Sansa would not wed Joffrey and bear him a son, but she would wed Tyrion, and she would betray her family, but in a much more subtle, even innocent, way than the George initially intended.

Actually, this doesn't have to be the case. The original outline had the story spread over years. We could have had Sansa betraying Ned and then later Sansa betraying her family by officially championing Joffrey's and/or the cause of her son by him.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Tyrion, on the other hand, would become disillusioned with, and betray, his family. Note that there was no suggestion that Petyr was already conceived as the big bad behind the first conflict, or that Tywin would emerge as the primary antagonist to the Starks.

There is no reason to believe that Tyrion was a dwarf, and that Tywin and Littlefinger even existed when George wrote the original outline. They are not mentioned.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

One also wonders reading that 1993 letter whether Stannis and the Riverlands had been conceived of yet, since the George says that the North (not the Riverlands) would be consumed by war, and that Tyrion (not Jaime) would lay siege to Winterfell. Theon’s role was not hinted at in the 1993 letter, and whether the George had conceptualized the roles Euron and Dorne would play in the second (and/or third) conflict was not clear.

Stannis didn't even exist at that point, either, and it is actually pretty likely that both Renly and Stannis were only invented later during the writing process when George came close to ACoK-territory and then retroactively squeezed them into the earlier chapters by giving Renly cameos and having people talk about Stannis.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Jon and Bran’s plot lines seem to be more involved with the third conflict than with the first conflict. And although we follow Daenerys all through the first conflict, she is a peripheral player during that first conflict just like Jon and Bran are. Nevertheless, the other two conflicts overlap and intertwine with each other and with the first. We do see a temporary resolution of the first conflict with Lannister defeating Stark, and Petyr being revealed as the big bad, but the young Starks are scattered, not eradicated, so the first conflict can continue into successive novels.

I don't think Littlefinger is the big bad. He is a manipulator but hardly some sort of final boss. Joffrey, Cersei, and Tywin were all shits irregardless whether some of their actions were influenced by Littlefinger or not. And right now he is actually more a side story, not dangerous to many of the core characters.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Two years after Storm, The Sworn Sword was published, and the Blackfyre, which was hinted at in the first novels, was introduced along with Bloodraven, who would be revealed to be the three-eyed crow much later.

The three-eyed crow became Bloodraven. It is the other way around. Just as the Aegon story (not the Blackfyre story) grew out of the characters of Varys and Illyrio.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I find that the most intriguing change from the 1993 letter is Tyrion’s arc. Initially, he was intended to be a foil to Jon in the end. Some readers believe he has become the third head of the dragon and will ride the dragons with Jon and Daenerys to defeat the Others. Some readers believe he will not turn out to be a traditional hero, but will nevertheless provide crucial counsel to the traditional heroes all the way through the end. As for me, I believe the George initially intended for Tyrion to die fighting Jon Snow, as he made plain when he wrote that his love for Arya would “lead to a deadly rivalry between Tyrion and Jon Snow,” but then resolved to have Tyrion betray Daenerys, thus killing him sooner than expected, in presumably shocking style as was the case for the Ned and Tywin.

That is not a very likely scenario. I think the Jon-Tyrion rivalry was supposed to complicate things with the love triangle and all but that they all would still end up in some sort of alliance against the Others, perhaps with Tyrion eventually sacrificing himself to save Arya's life. It was all much more conventional in the beginning.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The George did describe the second conflict in a paragraph in the 1993 letter, but that paragraph was redacted, so we can only guess at what he had to say about the second conflict then. Given the title of what was to be the second of three novels, though, we can assume that Daenerys would be confronted by a rival claimant. Whether the Blackfyre had been conceptualized in 1993, is debatable (there are many who believe that all that Blackfyre stuff is just world-building), but I think it is safe to assume that the George had always intended for an Aegon character of some sort to rival Daenerys.

Some people have tried to read the redacted portion. Whatever they guessed at suggests nothing of this sort. The picture we get is that ADwD would have been Dany's conquest of Westeros, fighting against and eventually killing Evil Jaime who had usurped the Iron Throne.

Also note that there was only one dragon in the original outline, making it very likely that Dany was the only dragonriding Targaryen we would meet in the story. There were no three dragon heads and perhaps not even a promised prince at that point.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

We should expect the three conflicts to continue to overlap and intertwine in the final two novels. The Stark-Lannister conflict is not quite over yet. Although the Starks have been defeated, they have not been extinguished, and they are poised to come snarling back, so we should look for them to rise up and defeat the Lannisters and their allies the Freys and the Boltons, with help from the dragons, of course.

The Lannisters are basically done. Cat and Edmure and the Riverlords might deal with the Freys and Genna/Emmon, but the Starks as such most likely won't deal with Cersei. Aegon is going to do that for the time being, but if she ends up allying with Euron she could stick around long enough to actually eventually face Sansa's, Arya's, or even Jon's wrath.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Also, over the course of the next 150 chapters or so, the George will have Daenerys return to Westeros and fight, perhaps not right away, Aegon. But all the while, the danger from the North will become ever more clear and present, until (after Daenerys and Aegon have their final showdown) the men of Westeros defeat the Others, led by Jon with the aid of Bran’s magic.

Bran and Jon will play major roles but I really think the Others thing will have to be a group issue, a very large and powerful alliances with a lot of focus on various magics in addition to the core players. Bran will provide the gang with a lot of knowledge about the Others but that's not going to give them the means to defeat them. If Bran had that then Bloodraven and the Children could long ago have given the wildlings the tools to challenge the Others. Obviously they were not capable of doing that.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

In other words, the just as the Stark-Lannister conflict does not have to end before the dragons begin to dance, the dragons do not have to finish their dance before the Others sweep down from the North.

That certainly is true. And as I've said already somewhere there is also a good chance that the fight against the Others will already play a role in the Second Dance. It could be a fight about who has the right to declare himself the savior of mankind as well as a war for political power. Stannis introduced the whole theme of a religious war, and the new High Septon and Dany's red priest followers will continue this trend. If Aegon becomes the poster boy of the Faith then the religious differences alone (and the religious interpretations of the threat of the Others/winter) could become a crucial part on the conflict. It also seeped into Euron's campaign already, although I doubt he really cares about gods and religions.

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35 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

So, yes, I think it's highly likely that the Dance of Dragons will happen while the Others invade Weteros and thirteen heroes do what needs to be done to save the realm.

While we have no idea what the Last Hero did and whether he actually defeated the Others I'd very much doubt that our heroes have to do a similar thing. The man might have joined the Others or reached an agreement which gave the Others what they wanted at this point in time, buying mankind a lot of time in the process.

There is a reason why we have as of yet no idea who the Last Hero was and what he did. I'm pretty sure that's going to a surprise. Since our guys are most likely going to destroy the Others for good I'm pretty sure the Last Hero's deeds won't be repeated. However, I'm with you that some sort of quest into the Heart of Winter might lie ahead of some of the heroes. A dragon could come in handy when this whole thing begins considering that it shouldn't be that hard to fly into the Lands of Always Winter on dragonback.

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35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to believe that Tyrion was a dwarf, and that Tywin and Littlefinger even existed when George wrote the original outline. They are not mentioned.

Stannis didn't even exist at that point, either,

Isn't that what I said? Why are you arguing about that? 

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Littlefinger is the big bad. He is a manipulator but hardly some sort of final boss. Joffrey, Cersei, and Tywin were all shits irregardless whether some of their actions were influenced by Littlefinger or not. And right now he is actually more a side story, not dangerous to many of the core characters.

The first main conflict identified by our storyteller is the Stark-Lannister conflict. That was set in motion by Petyr, who had other do his bidding, directly or indirectly. He was not acting on behalf of anyone else. His primary role was only confirmed at the end of the conflict. (The Stark-Lannister conflict will continue but not as a main conflict in the story.) By definition, he was the big bad, at least for the first main conflict of the story. 

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The three-eyed crow became Bloodraven. It is the other way around. Just as the Aegon story (not the Blackfyre story) grew out of the characters of Varys and Illyrio.

Did the George tell you that, or did you see it in a vision? 

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Some people have tried to read the redacted portion. Whatever they guessed at suggests nothing of this sort. The picture we get is that ADwD would have been Dany's conquest of Westeros, fighting against and eventually killing Evil Jaime who had usurped the Iron Throne.

A bunch of guesses is all that is. 

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Lannisters are basically done. Cat and Edmure and the Riverlords might deal with the Freys and Genna/Emmon, but the Starks as such most likely won't deal with Cersei. Aegon is going to do that for the time being, but if she ends up allying with Euron she could stick around long enough to actually eventually face Sansa's, Arya's, or even Jon's wrath.

Again, isn't that kinda what I said? 

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Bran and Jon will play major roles but I really think the Others thing will have to be a group issue, a very large and powerful alliances with a lot of focus on various magics in addition to the core players. Bran will provide the gang with a lot of knowledge about the Others but that's not going to give them the means to defeat them. If Bran had that then Bloodraven and the Children could long ago have given the wildlings the tools to challenge the Others. Obviously they were not capable of doing that.

Umm... yeah... That's why I said Jon would lead the men of Westeros against 'em. But they will need Bran's magic to win the day in some cataclysmic fashion. (I'm think a supervolcano erupts in Winterfell, but that's just a wild guess.) 

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7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That scenario is way too much influenced by the show. It is not likely to occur in this way in the books. Stannis is not going to die at Winterfell, Aegon will get the support of Dorne, the Riverlands won't ally with Jon Snow or the North (they have their own leaders, either Catelyn or Edmure Tully who have no reason to entertain the notion of working with either Jon Snow or Stannis), Euron is not going to bring down the Wall (there is a chance that the Others might have gotten to him and use him for their purposes now, but he is not their ally consciously), and Dany has been established as a crucial leader in the War for the Dawn since AGoT.

I find it odd you feel you can be so sure about certain things. Everything I'm saying is quite speculative but your use of words like will, won't, not etc makes me wonder why you feel so certain.

I do feel strongly that Jon is going to become a leader of Westeros in some form, maybe or maybe not king, but in a way that Stannis never will. Although I said Stannis would take Winterfell, I don't believe there is room for both Stannis and Jon in these roles. Whether this is because Stannis dies (betrayed by the Northmen perhaps, I don't think Brieanne will kill him), goes crazy, joins the nightwatch, becomes the nightsking or whatever, I don't see him commanding any significant loyalty for much longer.

As for Aegon and Dorne, it certainly looks the way you describe things at the moment, but that typically means it is not going to happen. Arriane has been built up into quite a significant character. She has a purpose in the story and I believe that is greater than simply getting Aegon to pick her over a possible Daenerys marriage. She has been sent to him to figure out whether he is genuine and I think she will realise he is an impostor. At this stage she will be faced with the choice of wedding him anyway (which she wants to do) or do the "right" thing and not lead her country into following him under false pretenses. As for symbolism, Dorne has sided with the Targaryens in every blackfyre rebellion.

Edmure Tully is unlikely to be considered a leader. He is a Lannister prisoner and isn't held in particularly high esteem in the Riverlands. He has never been written as a dynamic character. If you wanted to make a point here you should have named the Blackfish. As for Catelyn, I believe she has every reason to support Jon and she will be the one to resurrect him, giving up her own life in the process. They have always had a complicated relationship because of Neds lies, I believe to not come back to that and wrap it up would be a failing in terms of the writing. It is easy to disagree with someone you love when they are alive, but when Robb died his dying wish and will was for Jon to succeed him, is something that will be much more difficult for Catelyn to disregard. Giving up her own life to bring him back is letting go of hate and mistrust which she seems to embody in her current form.

Euron, well I admit I have little idea where he is going or what he wants but I haven't heard a better idea. He seems to be linked to Bloodraven and the more magical rather than political aspects of the story, which is represented more with the Others. If he does aid the others, whether it is consciously or not is purely irrelevant quibbling. He seems to want something in Oldtown and doesn't seem to care too much about the long term consequences for the Ironborn.

Your point about Daenerys is your strongest. Right from the first book this looked like by far the most the likely and obvious endgame... but GRRM has constantly proven to be more subtle than that. If she does swoop in and save the day I think I would likely be a little disappointed with the ending. In any event, I think she has still got a lot to do in Essos and is, at least for a period, going to be a darker character. She achieved her peace through diplomatic means and then found she didn't like it. I think her Dance chapters were the turning point of her becoming a more antagonistic character.

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