Robert was right to fear the Dothraki Horde

[devilish]

At face value Ned was right. Even if Viserys was able to convince Khal Drogo and his men to travel to Westeros, moving such army across sea would have been a logistics nightmare. Also 100k of light cavalry who still fight like pre Roman times would hardly do too much damage to a professional medieval army. However there was more to meet the eye that someone like Ned who had locked himself in his frozen castle underestimated badly

a- The old alliance which went toe to toe against Aerys was growing old. Jon Arryn was dead and was replaced by a sickly boy whose mother would lock herself in the Vale at the first sign of danger, Hoster was dying and his heir was hardly Aegon the conqueror, Robert had grew fat and his replacement at the Stormlands was a negotiator not a warrior.

b- Westeros wasn't united. Balon held great grievances towards the crown following the death of his two sons. The Tyrells were left paying the bills without getting anything in exchange and lets face under Mace's administration they are hardly the type to like getting their hands bloody. Not to forget Dorne whom had seen the very family who brutalised Elia seeing their own daughter crowned.

c- The Dothraki had been a pain in the arse for centuries, bullying an endless list of cities in exchange of gold. If they knocked the door of such cities promising them to leave forever in exchange of a blank cheque and a fleet then most would be extremely happy with that. 

d- Danny was in possession of 3 dragon eggs which alone was worth a sellsword army

e- The golden company might have ridiculed Viserys but would certainly show interest in him if he comes at the back of a Dothraki army.

f- logistics problem 

That's quite a solid army isn't it?

[Scootaloo Stark]

Yes, there are lots of old Targaryen supporters, but is Viserys the guy to unite them? Some Blackfyre supporters didn't follow in the second rebellion because they didn't like the person Daeron II. Could be the same with Viserys.

Lots of Westerosi would also resent Viserys for bringing those hordes of savages into the land. The Dothraki would rape and murder and not give Viserys new friends. I also don't really see how Viserys could control them, get them to go away after they're done, or get them to fight together with his other supporters without there being huge problems.

I think you're making the Dothraki seem a little weak too. They're good fighters, and they're so many. Surely that's something to fear.

About the logistical nightmare.. I'm sure Illyrio could bring them across the sea pretty well. Most of their forces should reach their destination.

Last but not least - "locked himself in his frozen castle"... is that some anti-Ned vibe? 

[devilish]

24 minutes ago, Scootaloo Stark said:

Yes, there are lots of old Targaryen supporters, but is Viserys the guy to unite them? Some Blackfyre supporters didn't follow in the second rebellion because they didn't like the person Daeron II. Could be the same with Viserys.

Lots of Westerosi would also resent Viserys for bringing those hordes of savages into the land. The Dothraki would rape and murder and not give Viserys new friends. I also don't really see how Viserys could control them, get them to go away after they're done, or get them to fight together with his other supporters without there being huge problems.

I think you're making the Dothraki seem a little weak too. They're good fighters, and they're so many. Surely that's something to fear.

About the logistical nightmare.. I'm sure Illyrio could bring them across the sea pretty well. Most of their forces should reach their destination.

Last but not least - "locked himself in his frozen castle"... is that some anti-Ned vibe? 

a- Viserys wasn't taken seriously just as Danny wasn't taken seriously at first for one sole reason ie he had no army. If he came back with a 100k army at his back then rest assured that many will fall in line. The GC will see his quest as a viable one and so would the Martells

b- The Dothraki aren't as evil as the likes of Gregor Clegane can be, at least Drogo wasn't. Medieval wars were often brutal as troops were sent on the loose to forage food for their army no questions asked. Viserys would find it difficult to get them to leave though especially without taken any slaves with them. There again CR is overflowing with gold and gold is easier to carry back to Essos then slaves

c- The best army in medieval times was the Mongolian army which was extremely mobile.So I value cavalry greatly. There again the Dothraki are surreal. first they don't have any sort of armour. Secondly while they do use the composite bow they doesn't seem to have developed their military strategy around it. Military wise they are obsolete

d- Transporting 100k is a logistic nightmare especially since the enemy won't sit down and wait for you to be ready. Their military council need to act smart and make friends in Westeros before considering invading. They need a safe port to sail into with friends capable of holding off the enemy until the invading army is united and ready  to strike back

e- Ned spent 10 years away from Westeros politics

[Coolbeard the Exile]

27 minutes ago, devilish said:

a- Viserys wasn't taken seriously just as Danny wasn't taken seriously at first for one sole reason ie he had no army. If he came back with a 100k army at his back then rest assured that many will fall in line. The GC will see his quest as a viable one and so would the Martells

b- The Dothraki aren't as evil as the likes of Gregor Clegane can be, at least Drogo wasn't. Medieval wars were often brutal as troops were sent on the loose to forage food for their army no questions asked. Viserys would find it difficult to get them to leave though especially without taken any slaves with them. There again CR is overflowing with gold and gold is easier to carry back to Essos then slaves

c- The best army in medieval times was the Mongolian army which was extremely mobile.So I value cavalry greatly. There again the Dothraki are surreal. first they don't have any sort of armour. Secondly while they do use the composite bow they doesn't seem to have developed their military strategy around it. Military wise they are obsolete

d- Transporting 100k is a logistic nightmare especially since the enemy won't sit down and wait for you to be ready. Their military council need to act smart and make friends in Westeros before considering invading. They need a safe port to sail into with friends capable of holding off the enemy until the invading army is united and ready  to strike back

e- Ned spent 10 years away from Westeros politics

c) http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Field_of_Crows

[theblackdragonI]

You're absolutely right. However, the lords of Westeros might unite under Robert to face this common enemy?

The Stormlands, Dragonstone and the North would fight out of loyalty.

Riverlands and the Reach would probably fight out of fear that their lands would be the wrecking grounds of a horde of savages.

Tywin would surely raise the West to demonstrate his loyalty and protect his family on the throne.

Lysa might keep the Vale out of it, the lords might not agree to that though if the Vale itself was threatened.

Dorne and Iron Isles would probably not participate.

Still, 5 out of the Lord Paramounts under Robert with able commanders like Tarly, Stannis, Ned, Rowan, Blackfish etc. would crush the Dothraki I think.

 

[Philokles]

26 minutes ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

c) http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Field_of_Crows

Barely defeating an army whose main weapon was scythed chariots does little to disprove they were militarily obsolete.

[Protagoras]

Ehh, the problem is not that they wont be feared but that they simply will lose momentum. 100k of light cavalry is enough to give any kingdom issues and especially in the beginning when they have a huge force multiplier as well as surprise, but then the lack of armour and the lack of supplies should become severe issues after those early successes. They are natural raiders and can most likely avoid getting slaughtered to a man in a decisive battle, but what will they really accomplish? Will they take any of the stronger castles - doubtful. Will they displace many noble families, even kill some off - certainly, but that doesn´t mean they will win. Best scenario is if no other region interferes, but in the long run someone will. The natural defenses of the seven kingdoms should be too much for them as well as the difference in equipment. And they will constantly need to feed their horses.

So, lets say they land in Stormlands. The Stormlands won´t be able to muster troops fast enough and unite them before they are killed or driven off due to the dothraki mobility. The lords will, after the initial setback and surprise, try to fortify themselves, raise troops and do some lighter offensive. Some will succed, most will fail and any noble family not in possession of a strong castle will be killed of (So Marcher lords + Storm´s end should be able to hold out at minimum). The victorious Dothraki split up to cover and plunder the territory they have taken and might also expand into the Crownlands, threatening King´s landing and raiding the country side for more loot.

Then, when the Reach, the Riverlands, the Vale and/or the Westerlands counter-attack (as well as some rests of Crownland and Stormland levy maybe) they won´t be able to stand against it. There will be too few Dothraki on too much territory and will be picked off piece by piece. While green, lighty armoured westerosi foot-soldiers might not stand up to the Dothraki, knights will and so will archers (who will have a field day). In addition, better trained and equipped soldiers, like Tywins host and those Freys in chainmail, might be able to not only hold a Dothraki charge, but also drive them back (and armoured enough to ignore most of the arrows fired at them).

In the end the Khalasar will break up. Just like Khorne in 40k, they wont have the staying-power. They will have initial success and then driven off and killed. At best, the survivors will live on the countryside as bandits in a terrain easier to defend. They will be the "mountain-clans" of the Stormlands.

[Ser Snowflake]

4 hours ago, Horse of Kent said:

Barely defeating an army whose main weapon was scythed chariots does little to disprove they were militarily obsolete.

The Dothraki didn't barely defeat the Tall Men.....they destroyed them utterly, which is what they would do to most armies in open battle.

A force of 100,000 light calvary would wreak havoc on the 7K. Only about 10% of any Westerori army are comprised of knights, and during the events of ASOIAF, most of the realm is at war with each other.

This mean the Dothraki would not likely face a united force, enabling them to rout any opposition piece by piece.

[LindsayLohan]

Regarding the Vale and Lysa, please recall that at the time of "A Game of Thrones" Robert was about to name Jaime Lannister as Warden of the East, putting Jaime in command of the Vale's military defenses.  Lysa would have been left out of the equation, with Jaime and Bronze Yohn handling the Vale's contribution to the war effort.  The high lords of the Vale were badgering Lysa to enter the WOT5K on behalf of Robb Stark in near unanimity. 

If the Boar/Beheading/Infected Boo Boo events had not taken place, the Dothraki would have found themselves fighting a united Stormlands/Crowndlands/Dragonstone/Riverlands/North/Vale/West.  Ned, Tywin, Robert, and Edmure would have whooped the Dothraki's asses.

[Amris]

I don't want to involve myself in the 'obsolete or not' discussion but there is another thing about huge cavalry hosts that should be taken into consideration:

The question of logistics which has been rised already.

First you need to bring not only your 100.000 men - but also your 100.000 horses across the sea. A not so minor obstacle. I don't see how that's supposed to work in-world but be that as it may:

Even if you managed that you still face another gigantic problem: That of supplying your outsized cavalry army once it has arrived.

Horses need a lot of food. Especially if you work them hard. That's the reason a mounted host needs to carry several times the amount of supplies a same-sized infantry unit does.

So either you need a huge, HUGE amount of waggons (and a continouus and enormous supply of grain on them from - somewhere) or you need to graze the horses. And if you graze them they need a lot of grazing area - and time.

Since there is only so much room for grazing in any one spot there is no way you can keep 100.000+ horses together (or even remotely close enough together to really support each other in battle). You'd have to split them up into much smaller armies and spread them around the countryside.

[Nocturne]

13 hours ago, devilish said:

At face value Ned was right. Even if Viserys was able to convince Khal Drogo and his men to travel to Westeros, moving such army across sea would have been a logistics nightmare. Also 100k of light cavalry who still fight like pre Roman times would hardly do too much damage to a professional medieval army. However there was more to meet the eye that someone like Ned who had locked himself in his frozen castle underestimated badly

a- The old alliance which went toe to toe against Aerys was growing old. Jon Arryn was dead and was replaced by a sickly boy whose mother would lock herself in the Vale at the first sign of danger, Hoster was dying and his heir was hardly Aegon the conqueror, Robert had grew fat and his replacement at the Stormlands was a negotiator not a warrior.

b- Westeros wasn't united. Balon held great grievances towards the crown following the death of his two sons. The Tyrells were left paying the bills without getting anything in exchange and lets face under Mace's administration they are hardly the type to like getting their hands bloody. Not to forget Dorne whom had seen the very family who brutalised Elia seeing their own daughter crowned.

c- The Dothraki had been a pain in the arse for centuries, bullying an endless list of cities in exchange of gold. If they knocked the door of such cities promising them to leave forever in exchange of a blank cheque and a fleet then most would be extremely happy with that. 

d- Danny was in possession of 3 dragon eggs which alone was worth a sellsword army

e- The golden company might have ridiculed Viserys but would certainly show interest in him if he comes at the back of a Dothraki army.

f- logistics problem 

That's quite a solid army isn't it?

The Dothraki army is no army. People love to associate them with the real life Mongolians but they are a far cry from it. They favour the Arakh instead of the bow. If the 100k Dothraki would meet even 30k Westerosi Knights in battle they would get obliterated.

Then comes the Westerosi infantry who is vastly superior then anything that the Dothraki have faced. They fight with long lances, and in shield walls. The Dothraki without any armor would get impaled to death while trying to charge against a shield wall. When they would get stuck in the shield wall, they would get flanked and get obliterated by the Westerosi Knights.

What you're also forgetting in the political debate is Tywin Lannister. The only people he could not realistically pursued to fight against an invading barbarian army are the Martells & Arryn's. The Grejoy's aren't even needed to fight them off.

So unless the Dothraki suddenly turn into the great Mongolian army, i highly doubt that they would be successful in Westeros.

 

 

[devilish]

12 hours ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

c) http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Field_of_Crows

We don't know when that happened, what type of armour the tall men had etc. In real history, chariots became obsolete in early Roman times. A typical Roman soldier (lorica segmentata ie metal strips) would be considered as heavily armoured infantry. That type of armour is no match to full plated armour. 

[devilish]

3 hours ago, LindsayLohan said:

Regarding the Vale and Lysa, please recall that at the time of "A Game of Thrones" Robert was about to name Jaime Lannister as Warden of the East, putting Jaime in command of the Vale's military defenses.  Lysa would have been left out of the equation, with Jaime and Bronze Yohn handling the Vale's contribution to the war effort.  The high lords of the Vale were badgering Lysa to enter the WOT5K on behalf of Robb Stark in near unanimity. 

If the Boar/Beheading/Infected Boo Boo events had not taken place, the Dothraki would have found themselves fighting a united Stormlands/Crowndlands/Dragonstone/Riverlands/North/Vale/West.  Ned, Tywin, Robert, and Edmure would have whooped the Dothraki's asses.

As said, on their own, the Dothraki horde would have lost. However would they really be on their own?

A-    I fancy Viserys to be able to convince the GC to join his quest. I am aware that the GC turned him down last time round. There again, back then, he didn’t had 100k horde at his back

B-    Out of 7 regions you’ll have 3 regions whom most probably would have logistics problems (the North and the Riverlands). Ned would take ages to gather all his bannermen. Hoster is dying and strictly speaking Edmure has no authority to lead them to war while Lysa will most certainly shut the door. I am aware that Robert could, strictly speaking, appoint other wardens. But that require time and plenty of diplomatic clout. The last thing a king would want is to upset a warden/LP in times of war by stripping him from his autonomy

C-    There is also 3 regions who are in the red list. The Iron islands and Dorne have no love towards the crown which is problematic. Balon could easily disrupt Westeros superiority at sea while Dorne could provide Viserys with a safe port to land and an extreme hostile environment for an invading party to invade. The Tyrells aren’t exactly thrilled with the new administration either. They are forced to pay Robert’s bills without getting anything in exchange. Their hopes of seeing a Tyrell sitting on the iron throne has been dashed by Robert who preferred Sansa then Margaerys as wife for Joffrey. Not to forget that unlike the Lannisters whose wealth is buried deep underground, the Tyrells wealth lie over ground. Fields and a Dothraki horde doesn’t seem to mix very well. Would they stay loyal to their ungrateful king or would they opt for Viserys in exchange of protection from the Dothraki Horde, a solid 60k army and a potential marriage between him and Margaery?
 

[LindsayLohan]

10 minutes ago, devilish said:

As said, on their own, the Dothraki horde would have lost. However would they really be on their own?

A-    I fancy Viserys to be able to convince the GC to join his quest. I am aware that the GC turned him down last time round. There again, back then, he didn’t had 100k horde at his back

B-    Out of 7 regions you’ll have 3 regions whom most probably would have logistics problems (the North and the Riverlands). Ned would take ages to gather all his bannermen. Hoster is dying and strictly speaking Edmure has no authority to lead them to war while Lysa will most certainly shut the door. I am aware that Robert could, strictly speaking, appoint other wardens. But that require time and plenty of diplomatic clout. The last thing a king would want is to upset a warden/LP in times of war by stripping him from his autonomy

C-    There is also 3 regions who are in the red list. The Iron islands and Dorne have no love towards the crown which is problematic. Balon could easily disrupt Westeros superiority at sea while Dorne could provide Viserys with a safe port to land and an extreme hostile environment for an invading party to invade. The Tyrells aren’t exactly thrilled with the new administration either. They are forced to pay Robert’s bills without getting anything in exchange. Their hopes of seeing a Tyrell sitting on the iron throne has been dashed by Robert who preferred Sansa then Margaerys as wife for Joffrey. Not to forget that unlike the Lannisters whose wealth is buried deep underground, the Tyrells wealth lie over ground. Fields and a Dothraki horde doesn’t seem to mix very well. Would they stay loyal to their ungrateful king or would they opt for Viserys in exchange of protection from the Dothraki Horde, a solid 60k army and a potential marriage between him and Margaery?
 

In your scenario, where Viserys lands with the Dothraki AND Golden Company, you forget that Viserys is already promised to Arianne Martell.  There isn't any way Doran Martell supports Viserys if the pact is not honored.  Viserys is the child of Aerys and Rhaella, not Rhaegar and Elia.

[devilish]

1 hour ago, Nocturne said:

The Dothraki army is no army. People love to associate them with the real life Mongolians but they are a far cry from it. They favour the Arakh instead of the bow. If the 100k Dothraki would meet even 30k Westerosi Knights in battle they would get obliterated.

Then comes the Westerosi infantry who is vastly superior then anything that the Dothraki have faced. They fight with long lances, and in shield walls. The Dothraki without any armor would get impaled to death while trying to charge against a shield wall. When they would get stuck in the shield wall, they would get flanked and get obliterated by the Westerosi Knights.

What you're also forgetting in the political debate is Tywin Lannister. The only people he could not realistically pursued to fight against an invading barbarian army are the Martells & Arryn's. The Grejoy's aren't even needed to fight them off.

So unless the Dothraki suddenly turn into the great Mongolian army, i highly doubt that they would be successful in Westeros.

 

 

I think you’re underestimated the Dothraki a bit too much

a-    They aren’t a disorganized rabble quite the contrary. The Dothraki live and die on their horses + the field of crows clearly states the use of tactics in war. There’s nothing to suggest that they won’t adapt their tactics to better counter the Westerosi knights

b-    Mounted knights are a rare sight. In the battle of the Trident, Rhaegar could rely on around 4000 knights and we have no idea how many of them were mounted. The lance give a reach advantage over the Arakh but a lance can only aim at one direction. A dothraki with a 20 year experience on a horse can easily exploit his superior mobility to outmanoeuvre the knight and hit the enemy horse with his Arakh. Not to forget that the knight’s horse tend to be a powerhouse not a runner. If the Dothraki are wise then they can use hit and run tactics over Robert’s army, frustrating the mounted knights (who tend to be a proud but not exactly bright bunch) to break ranks and chase them only to finish them off away from the army. Hostages could also be captured forcing their houses to bend to Viserys will or risk losing their loved ones.

If you ask me, I can’t see the Dothraki prevail alone. They don’t know the territory, which is a big problem for an army who will have to rely heavily on their superior mobility to win. Their tactics will also need to adapted (lances and composite bows in exchange of Arakh). However put them alongside the GC, Dorne spear and hopefully a few thousand Unsullied (I can see Essosi Lords who do not have fleets offering an unsullied army instead of ships) and that would be a quite strong army especially if the Tyrells join in too. 
 

[devilish]

39 minutes ago, LindsayLohan said:

In your scenario, where Viserys lands with the Dothraki AND Golden Company, you forget that Viserys is already promised to Arianne Martell.  There isn't any way Doran Martell supports Viserys if the pact is not honored.  Viserys is the child of Aerys and Rhaella, not Rhaegar and Elia.

I think what the Martells really want is to see justice ie Tywin, Gregor and co killed. They will probably see wisdom in having Viserys marrying Margaery as that would mean a 60k top up army and probably less war in Dorne. 

[Coolbeard the Exile]

14 hours ago, Horse of Kent said:

Barely defeating an army whose main weapon was scythed chariots does little to disprove they were militarily obsolete.

Where do you get that they barely won from? They defeated an enormous army including 10,000 heavy cavalry and 100,000 spearmen and slingers. 

The Dothraki are dangerous and would do alot of damage if they made their way to Westeros.

[Laughing Storm Reborn]

Agree, like Robert said, it's nota the dothraki alone he feared but the targ loyalists helping the raiders land on the 7k 

[Nocturne]

1 hour ago, devilish said:

I think you’re underestimated the Dothraki a bit too much

a-    They aren’t a disorganized rabble quite the contrary. The Dothraki live and die on their horses + the field of crows clearly states the use of tactics in war. There’s nothing to suggest that they won’t adapt their tactics to better counter the Westerosi knights

b-    Mounted knights are a rare sight. In the battle of the Trident, Rhaegar could rely on around 4000 knights and we have no idea how many of them were mounted. The lance give a reach advantage over the Arakh but a lance can only aim at one direction. A dothraki with a 20 year experience on a horse can easily exploit his superior mobility to outmanoeuvre the knight and hit the enemy horse with his Arakh. Not to forget that the knight’s horse tend to be a powerhouse not a runner. If the Dothraki are wise then they can use hit and run tactics over Robert’s army, frustrating the mounted knights (who tend to be a proud but not exactly bright bunch) to break ranks and chase them only to finish them off away from the army. Hostages could also be captured forcing their houses to bend to Viserys will or risk losing their loved ones.

If you ask me, I can’t see the Dothraki prevail alone. They don’t know the territory, which is a big problem for an army who will have to rely heavily on their superior mobility to win. Their tactics will also need to adapted (lances and composite bows in exchange of Arakh). However put them alongside the GC, Dorne spear and hopefully a few thousand Unsullied (I can see Essosi Lords who do not have fleets offering an unsullied army instead of ships) and that would be a quite strong army especially if the Tyrells join in too. 
 

You make a fair point, that maybe raising 30k would not happen over night, but they don't even need that many. 

Like i mentioned the cavalry would be used once the Dothraki army engages in combat with the infantry. Why do you say the infantry would get frustrated with them?  Like i mentioned the Westerosi fight in a shield wall, with lances, they would have no reason to get frustrated against riders with no armour on them, and with no means to break the wall (lances).

Dothraki are very head strong to their ways as evidence to what we know of them. They would not change their tactics and immediately adapt lances and hit and run tactics with bows and arrows.

Even if they do, they wouldn't be efficient at them as they had no practice fighting at war this way.

And to a final point, horses especially ones that are not armoured and don't have their vision restricted would get scared and drop their riders at the sight of a shield wall with lances, that's simply a fact that a naked horse would behave this way.

Unsullied are the only ones who i see having success against success in Westeros, but that's highly debatable as well since their armour is shite as well. They do however have discipline, something that's almost of equal value as having good armour on.

 

 

[Lord Vance II]

I don't think anyone is disputing IF Viserys brought 100K Dothraki screamers, it would be an absolute disaster for Robert and the 7 Kingdoms, but I don't think they would have much of a shot at actually winning, let alone keeping rule. 

Honestly, I think it would be very hard for them to even get to Westeros, as many have said above. It's a logistical nightmare involving a massive fleet that would have to be gotten from somewhere. Presumably, Viserys best shot at a fleet would be to bully the coastal free cities. Fair enough. But I think the invaders would be exceptionally weak in transit. 

The Greyjoys have plenty of reason to hate Robert and see him go down, BUT, I think they could be convinced to help. I think Robert would be willing to give Balon damn near anything to bring the Iron Fleet around. I don't to get bogged down in ship numbers, but the IF, Redwynes, and Royal fleets would be a huge force and could stop the invasion at sea. Plus, I think there's a chance Braavos would throw its Navy in against Viserys to prevent the massive spread of slavery his invasion could mean. Then Viserys would be screwed. 

And as @devilish says, you can't really create a beachhead with a mounted force, they would need a port and, perhaps more importantly, a lot of time. If Robert could hit them as they landed, it would be a disaster for Viserys. IF he had the GC, they could maybe serve as marines to forge a beachhead, but again, it would take a ton of time to unload 100K men and horses without a real port. 

Let's say everything pans out perfect for Viserys and his horde subdues Westeros. What does he do with them? They can't keep their lifestyle and culture in Westeros. But if  he sends them back to Essos, he's leaving himself alone with all the people who's towns were burned, wives and daughters raped and sons either slaughtered or enslaved. He wouldn't last long. He might be able to win the support of 1 or 2 greathouses, but I don't think it would be enough. 

I could go on, but in response to the main point, yes, Robert had good reason to be worried, but I think he would still be sitting the throne at the end, and could possibly end the war quickly by pouncing on Viserys at sea.