US Politics: Spicey Onion Indigestion in the Age of Trump

[Martell Spy]

What Is Stephen Miller’s Job, Anyway?

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/01/what-is-stephen-millers-job-anyway.html

[JGP]

36 minutes ago, aeu said:

 

Well, they could have rewatched footage from her confirmation hearings.  Or ask Jeff Sessions (of all people...)

 

https://twitter.com/yottapoint/status/826289013891821568

https://twitter.com/yottapoint/status/826325066124103680

https://twitter.com/yottapoint/status/826327824332054529

 

God. That's hilariousnothilarious.

[mormont]

8 hours ago, Altherion said:

The issue is not the level of inequality, it is the increase in inequality.

I'm not sure why you believe that this is not what I was talking about. Yes, the increase in inequality, and those groups who have suffered the worst increases in inequality voted for Clinton, not Trump.

You're doing the same thing here as in your dispute with OGE over immigration. You're arguing that what you think should be the case is in fact the case, against people pointing out that the data don't actually back that up. You're dug in, ideologically, and unwilling to budge in the face of the facts. You have been since early in the election campaign, when you decided for no apparent reason that Trump was somehow a (perhaps unwitting) champion that would bring about an economic revolution.

[Lord of Rhinos]

2 hours ago, aeu said:

 

Well, they could have rewatched footage from her confirmation hearings.  Or ask Jeff Sessions (of all people...)

 

https://twitter.com/yottapoint/status/826289013891821568

https://twitter.com/yottapoint/status/826325066124103680

https://twitter.com/yottapoint/status/826327824332054529

 

Best senate confirmation hearing ever!

[Free Northman Reborn]

Looks like the paranoia indeed went overboard on the earlier thread, with the doom and gloom predictions about Trump's "imminent" executive orders against the LGBT community. Looking at you Dr. Pepper, if I recall. And one or two other hysterical scaremongers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/us/politics/obama-trump-protections-lgbt-workers.html?_r=0

To be honest, it seemed out of sync even when it was raised, given Trump's pretty consistent message of support for the LGBT community, even going back to his campaign trail.

Basically, Trump has been doing exactly what he promised he would try to do during his campaign. He promised to focus on security and immigration issues, and he has come out hard on that. He promised to be pro-life, and has put the executive order to the word. By contrast, he made no undertakings that I can recall to target the LGBT section of society. In fact, my only recollection was him praising them after the Florida night club massacre, and promising that they would be safer if he was in power.

[mormont]

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

To be honest, it seemed out of sync even when it was raised, given Trump's pretty consistent message of support for the LGBT community, even going back to his campaign trail.

His what now?

Trump appointed as his running mate and Vice-President a man who is notorious for his anti-LGBTQ+ statements and even legislation, and stood on a party platform promising to roll back LGBTQ+ rights. Most of his other appointees, including his AG, are public opponents of LGBTQ+ rights. Whether or not he introduces a FADA-type order by EO, he has said that when (not if) such a policy is proposed by his party he will not block or oppose it. 

Against that Trump has made a few (very few) rather patronising statements about how LGBTQ+ people are big fans of his and support him. But nothing about anything that he will do to support them. He doesn't have a single legislative proposal to safeguard or help the LGBTQ+ community.

Tell me again about his 'consistent message of support'.

[Ran]

Lets see what Trump says about FADA when it gets out of House Ways and Means.

[Toth]

Given the current climate, I'm starting to think the new Star Trek show should have a female Arab captain to remind people that... well, people are people. And Star Trek has a history of pushing current and future problems into the spotlight by showing a society that has grown past silly rhetoric of hate and fear.

But why do I have the dreadful feeling that even Star Trek won't be brave enough to go against hate in these modern times. The first seasons of Enterprise and their disgustingly warped War on Terror stupidity comes to mind. Gah, at least I will be less concerned over its inevitable crash then...

[butterbumps!]

6 hours ago, Altherion said:

How would you help them? It would be a royal pain in the neck to identify people impacted by trade and it's not clear what to do with them anyway (there are at least millions and possibly even tens of millions depending on how one counts).

I understand that you and I see the impact and effects of trade and immigration on the workforce differently, and that probably won't change.   But can you elaborate on how widespread you understand this is?   I've never been fully clear on which Americans (and in what numbers) you understand to be negatively affected by trade and immigration, at least in terms of job loss and stagnant wages, which I think is your concern if I understand correctly.  

I definitely understand the point you've made in the past that the problem isn't just inequality between workers and the rich, but rather, a deep sense of loss when looking at the present in comparison to their own past.  I definitely agree that many families struggle financially today in ways their parents and grandparents simply didn't.   I'm really skeptical, though, that foreign production or immigration are the causes, or at least that they aren't as universal as other economic factors in the anxiety people feel.  I think people have a lot more expenses these days, whether they are necessary, "necessary," or the completely consumeristic.  I think people buy way more stuff than they used to, and they do it on credit now.  I know that a lot of people of all education and economic backgrounds struggle with debt, and there was some pretty vicious predatory lending practices that left people hopeless.   I think these issues might be more universal across various economic backgrounds, and might be somewhat more to the root of why people feel like they have so much less than previous generations.  In a lot of ways they probably do have less security-- more expenses, more ways to get into financial trouble, a lot of debt.

[denstorebog]

59 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Looks like the paranoia indeed went overboard on the earlier thread, with the doom and gloom predictions about Trump's "imminent" executive orders against the LGBT community. Looking at you Dr. Pepper, if I recall. And one or two other hysterical scaremongers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/us/politics/obama-trump-protections-lgbt-workers.html?_r=0

To be honest, it seemed out of sync even when it was raised, given Trump's pretty consistent message of support for the LGBT community, even going back to his campaign trail.

Basically, Trump has been doing exactly what he promised he would try to do during his campaign. He promised to focus on security and immigration issues, and he has come out hard on that. He promised to be pro-life, and has put the executive order to the word. By contrast, he made no undertakings that I can recall to target the LGBT section of society. In fact, my only recollection was him praising them after the Florida night club massacre, and promising that they would be safer if he was in power.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but looking at the Rogue POTUS Staff account again (which correctly predicted that a decision would be made related to LGBTQ rights before the end of the week), they're saying that Trump overruled Pence in the last minute on the EO because of the last few days of backlash. As in, for PR reasons. Whether you believe that or not is up to you, but this is *completely* in sync with what we know about Pence's ideologies and Trump's fear of being unpopular.

So yeah, until the account is debunked (and it has done a number of correct predictions at this point), I'd say that you were fed a quick PR decision to make the administration look benign, even as it was on the verge of actually clamping down, and you swallowed it. (And to be honest, if you give Trump LGBTQ points because he praised the community after a massacre, during a presidential election, I think someone needs a bit more critical sense re: official statements.)

[Rippounet]

13 minutes ago, butterbumps! said:

I definitely agree that many families struggle financially today in ways their parents and grandparents simply didn't.   I'm really skeptical, though, that foreign production or immigration are the causes, or at least that they aren't as universal as other economic factors in the anxiety people feel.  I think people have a lot more expenses these days, whether they are necessary, "necessary," or the completely consumeristic.  I think people buy way more stuff than they used to, and they do it on credit now.

Immigration is the convenient scapegoat of the right for economic woes. I still have a hard time understanding why it works that well. Sure, xenophobia and racism are rather common among uneducated people, but after the latest economic crises I would expect even the biggest oaf to understand that they're being manipulated at some point. And someone like Altherion actually knows better, but somehow chooses to dismiss the evidence he is aware of for... reasons??

I believe this graph explains the actual origins of the problem(s):

You have it all in one simple graph, because of what it shows and implies (as you say, credit for most people).
Trump's policies will do nothing to address the problem shown by this graph ; they will only make it worse.

[Free Northman Reborn]

25 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

Sorry to burst your bubble, but looking at the Rogue POTUS Staff account again (which correctly predicted that a decision would be made related to LGBTQ rights before the end of the week), they're saying that Trump overruled Pence in the last minute on the EO because of the last few days of backlash. As in, for PR reasons. Whether you believe that or not is up to you, but this is *completely* in sync with what we know about Pence's ideologies and Trump's fear of being unpopular.

So yeah, until the account is debunked (and it has done a number of correct predictions at this point), I'd say that you were fed a quick PR decision to make the administration look benign, even as it was on the verge of actually clamping down, and you swallowed it. (And to be honest, if you give Trump LGBTQ points because he praised the community after a massacre, during a presidential election, I think someone needs a bit more critical sense re: official statements.)

Surely you can see how neat a way that is to cover up any of their false "predictions"? If they guess right, well, it's because they have inside knowledge of course. If they guess wrong, well, it's because the decision was supposedly overruled at the last minute.

On that basis,  they can never be proven wrong. Nice little operation they got going there.

[butterbumps!]

14 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Immigration is the convenient scapegoat of the right for economic woes. I still have a hard time understanding why it works that well. Sure, xenophobia and racism are rather common among uneducated people, but after the latest economic crises I would expect even the biggest oaf to understand that they're being manipulated at some point. And someone like Altherion actually knows better, but somehow chooses to dismiss the evidence he is aware of for... reasons??

I believe this graph explains the actual origins of the problem(s):

You have it all in one simple graph, because of what it shows and implies (as you say, credit for most people).
Trump's policies will do nothing to address the problem shown by this graph ; they will only make it worse.

This is really where I'm coming from on this too.   Trump's policies seem to diagnose false (immigration) or misleading/ incomplete (globalization) reasons for the economic anxiety people very much do feel.  And worse, the things that I think really are much more universal causes for the anxiety-- like massive debt, predatory lending, deregulation, insufficient wealth redistribution-- are exactly the things he's not pledging to tackle to alleviate it, and in some cases, seeks to exacerbate it, like lessening taxes on the rich and undoing Dodd Frank.   

[Ran]

49 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

Sorry to burst your bubble, but looking at the Rogue POTUS Staff account again (which correctly predicted that a decision would be made related to LGBTQ rights before the end of the week),

It didn't really correctly predict, did it? It said it was going to be signed. Fact is that it then claimed that the reversal was a "win"... but that's all retrospect, and it gave no hint at all that there was any doubt that it would go forward beyond (wrongly) suggesting that it was "unlikely" that it would not go forward.

It's not the source of the initial leak, and according to press an alleged draft EO (no one has said what the source is) has been circulating in Washington over the weekend so I suspect it's just following the same rumors any one else can and then spinning it as if it's an insider "confirming". So far the RoguePOTUSStaff account is 100% reactive, just about everything it claims that will or may happen is already sourced from somewhere else. The only claim I've seen from it that I haven't seen anywhere else (other than the first White House Leaker account) is that Reince Preibus has been on the verge of resigning.

Focus on genuine journalists. Josh Rogin claimed someone reliable in the administration was feeding him info about it, while Mary Emily O'Hara said the White House flat-out denied, and the NYT story is notable in that it completely fails to touch on whether there was a genuine draft of an EO anywhere.

 

[Werthead]

Quote

and would be expected to in case the US abolishes NATO

The USA can withdraw from NATO, which would be crippling since it makes up over two-thirds (closer to three-quarters, I believe) of the combined military of the alliance, but it wouldn't cause it to collapse overnight. It would still have two member-states with nuclear weapons and aircraft carriers (only one of which has any planes to fly them off those carriers at the moment, but still) and a fair bit of strength.

 

Quote

 

We've had lots of senseless Nazi comparisons on past threads. I don't necessarily agree with this article (by David Frum) but it sets out a more plausible way the Tyrant Trump prophecy could come true.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/

 

What's slightly worrying is that I find even this prediction to be fairly rosy and optimistic, and I think that the actions of the last few days (let alone the last few hours) suggest that things are going to be worse than this, sooner. I find their suggestion that gay marriage will still be on the books in 2020 pretty implausible, unless Trump decides to nominate a more MOR Supreme Court judge who doesn't give a shit about the issue. But it's more likely he will go with someone on the hard right and this is a bone he'll throw Pence and the evangelical audience, if not now than a few months or a year down the line.

Quote

 

Even Glenn Beck thinks this statement from Trump is ridiculous.

The days when Glen Beck and Sarah Palin are voices of reason and people are nostalgic for George W. Bush. Next up we'll learn that cats and dogs are living together and a giant marshmallow man is attacking New York.

Quote

 

This is the fundamental disagreement and I've heard this argument before with respect to various industries (e.g. the tech industry). As far as I can see, it is simply wrong. There is no labor shortage or even impending labor shortage. If there was, then wages would rise and companies would be willing to train workers rather than demand a ridiculously specific list of credentials.

I'm not sure how this can be said to be wrong when it's very basic and very simple demographics. The West as a whole (and the US and UK much more specifically) have a problem that people are getting older and having less children. That can be offset by people having more children - which American evangelicals seem to be trying - or having more immigration. Short and medium-term immigration, where people migrate to a country and work there for 10-15 years before going home, is actually ideal, as you have a huge amount of tax income without those people drawing too much on public services, and even if they stay they've still contributed massively to the country in question (although that's more realistic in Britain, with immigrants from stable European countries, than the US from Mexico). As a result of Brexit and the impending shutting off of immigration from Europe, it's already been widely accepted here that people will now not be able to retire until their early 70s and there could be a further public finances squeeze as the enormous number of baby boomers move into retirement and the need to use public services without the following generations being large enough to match the demand.

Pensions and healthcare costs rely on a pyramidal structure, with a larger number of people at the bottom supporting the small number of people at the top. That is unsustainable in the long term, but there also needs to be a plan in place to deal with it rather than just dropping it and letting the economy implode.

Quote

Looks like the paranoia indeed went overboard on the earlier thread, with the doom and gloom predictions about Trump's "imminent" executive orders against the LGBT community. Looking at you Dr. Pepper, if I recall. And one or two other hysterical scaremongers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/us/politics/obama-trump-protections-lgbt-workers.html?_r=0

To be honest, it seemed out of sync even when it was raised, given Trump's pretty consistent message of support for the LGBT community, even going back to his campaign trail.

Basically, Trump has been doing exactly what he promised he would try to do during his campaign. He promised to focus on security and immigration issues, and he has come out hard on that. He promised to be pro-life, and has put the executive order to the word. By contrast, he made no undertakings that I can recall to target the LGBT section of society. In fact, my only recollection was him praising them after the Florida night club massacre, and promising that they would be safer if he was in power.

He's left in place in an order preventing discrimination by the federal government or contractors. Nothing is guaranteed here with regards to the religious freedom bill not being passed and nothing with regards to the supreme court pick not being anti-equality. This is a short-term, feel-good, PR-based bit of fluff.

If he comes out guaranteeing that gay marriage will remain in place as long as he is president and the "religious freedom" nonsense isn't passed, that would be more encouraging.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

7 hours ago, Commodore said:

I like how we're pretending firing acting officials from a previous administration who are about to be replaced is a big outrage/massacre.

Senate Ds are slow rolling every cabinet official, and some of the acting officials are using that time to engage in insubordination.Highly unprofessional.

The unelected Yates was given an order (deemed lawful by her own department) from her elected executive and refused to do her job and carry it out. She offered no legal reasoning for her insubordination.

This is why you escort people who have been fired out the door, they have an incentive to cause trouble (or rather, no disincentive not to).

Yates will undoubtedly cash in on this in some form.

 

 

 

Gosh, so, the DOJ acting as rubber stamp to the whims of the President is a good thing.  All this time I thought people at the DOJ were supposed to act with independence and integrity.  Not somuch in your opinion, eh?

[Werthead]

Is this legit?

Due to an obscure law, Bannon will apparently need a full Senate confirmation hearing to serve on the National Security Council, which will give senators the chance to grill him on his background and will require a majority vote to pass him. Given how many Republicans apparently hate him, he's not going to be likely to get it.

 

 

[Chaircat Meow]

47 minutes ago, Werthead said:

 

 

What's slightly worrying is that I find even this prediction to be fairly rosy and optimistic, and I think that the actions of the last few days (let alone the last few hours) suggest that things are going to be worse than this, sooner. I find their suggestion that gay marriage will still be on the books in 2020 pretty implausible, unless Trump decides to nominate a more MOR Supreme Court judge who doesn't give a shit about the issue. But it's more likely he will go with someone on the hard right and this is a bone he'll throw Pence and the evangelical audience, if not now than a few months or a year down the line.

 

Maybe he will get rid of gay marriage or maybe he won't. But if Trump and Pence contrive to get rid of gay marriage this won't make the US any more or less autocratic as long as it is done legally.

I think people need to distinguish a bit more carefully between stuff they strongly disagree with and stuff that undermines US democracy and the constitution.

Frum incidentally, was a paid up neo-con, who coined the infamous axis of evil phrase for w. He probably thinks he's some lonely Churchill howling forlornly against the Trumpian threat.

[Dr. Pepper]

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Looks like the paranoia indeed went overboard on the earlier thread, with the doom and gloom predictions about Trump's "imminent" executive orders against the LGBT community. Looking at you Dr. Pepper, if I recall. And one or two other hysterical scaremongers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/us/politics/obama-trump-protections-lgbt-workers.html?_r=0

To be honest, it seemed out of sync even when it was raised, given Trump's pretty consistent message of support for the LGBT community, even going back to his campaign trail.

Basically, Trump has been doing exactly what he promised he would try to do during his campaign. He promised to focus on security and immigration issues, and he has come out hard on that. He promised to be pro-life, and has put the executive order to the word. By contrast, he made no undertakings that I can recall to target the LGBT section of society. In fact, my only recollection was him praising them after the Florida night club massacre, and promising that they would be safer if he was in power.

"Message of support for the LGBT community?"  That's some serious alternative fact right there.  

[Ran]

Dan Drezner deleted a tweet regarding that statue allegedly requiring Bannon's confirmation because, after staring at it a bit more, he felt the claim falls apart. Specifically, the statue relates to those who are appointed to the principal committee, and while it seems an early draft EO that caused much furor made Bannon a principal appointee, the actual EO apparenly only invites him. And the president is allowed to invite whoever he wants, apparently.

So, not legit.