Why did Illyrio give Dany the dragon eggs?

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 minutes ago, Maxxine said:

But would he have gotten a khalsar regardless. Remember Dothraki won't cross the narrow sea (which is another issue I have with the plan involving the Dothraki). Illyrio couldn't have known Drogo would fall for Dany the way he did & agree to cross the narrow sea for her. So how is the plan going to involve Dothraki anyway? Honestly the more I think about Varys & Illyrio the more I think they're terrible planners or there are just a lot of tiny plot holes. Lol

But Drogo was going to cross the Narrow Sea. He just needed the proper encouragement. 

[The Fresh PtwP]

Thanks for the shout out OP! 

I'm going to go with option #3 with a caveat, I DO think he planned Aegon coming back in the story just unsure how. 

I'm also going to add that it wouldn't even be a retcon if Illyrio had more eggs and gave one to Aegon. He is stupid rich after all.

[Maxxine]

6 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But Drogo was going to cross the Narrow Sea. He just needed the proper encouragement. 

True, after he fell for Dany. My point is Varys & Illyrio couldn't have predicted that. We see Dany acknowledge how Drogo was different than most other Dothraki. They couldn't have predicted Drogo would care enough about Dany's assassination attempt to agree to invade Westeros. He may have just been content to torture the wine seller. But even before that how did they make a plan involving Dothraki anyway. True some Dothraki have come to Westeros (theres one in the brave companions) but for the most part they have almost religious fervor against it. Something doesn't make sense. Maybe they just wanted to get Viserys out the way & give him an army that would never get to Westeros but like I said before there's a much easier to get rid of him.

[chrisdaw]

The reason is provided in ADWD, he had the hots for her. Extremely rich man gives young beautiful girl whom he is infatuated with an expensive and fitting present, for the purpose of making her happy and basking in her gratitude.

[Lost Melnibonean]

45 minutes ago, Maxxine said:

True, after he fell for Dany. My point is Varys & Illyrio couldn't have predicted that. We see Dany acknowledge how Drogo was different than most other Dothraki. They couldn't have predicted Drogo would care enough about Dany's assassination attempt to agree to invade Westeros. He may have just been content to torture the wine seller. But even before that how did they make a plan involving Dothraki anyway. True some Dothraki have come to Westeros (theres one in the brave companions) but for the most part they have almost religious fervor against it. Something doesn't make sense. Maybe they just wanted to get Viserys out the way & give him an army that would never get to Westeros but like I said before there's a much easier to get rid of him.

I think the wine seller gambit was a improvisation born of urgent necessity dictated by the escalating tension between Lannister and Stark initiated by Petyr Baelish. Illyrio and Varys seemed to think they had another year or two. 

[Maxxine]

11 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think the wine seller gambit was a improvisation born of urgent necessity dictated by the escalating tension between Lannister and Stark initiated by Petyr Baelish. Illyrio and Varys seemed to think they had another year or two. 

I agree it wasn't planned from the beginning, but it was just a lousy plan with too many what ifs like most of their supposed plans. What if Jorah never got the letter? What if Jorah didn't get there in time to stop the wine seller? What if Drogo didn't give a damn about Dany (unlikely bc of Rhaego but still a possibility)? What if Drogo only wanted to punish the wine sellers? I understand all plans have risks but Varys & Illyrio always seem to put a lot hope in 3rd parties they have no way of controlling for them to be considered good schemers 

[Cersei's Nachos]

3 hours ago, Maxxine said:

It may be good to have Dany's hand as bargaining chip. However, I think it best to marry Aegon & Dany bc it adds legitimacy to him. Dany's identity is not going to be questioned so she by virtue of being his wife would legitimize his identity imo

 

Makes a lot of sense, but at the same time, if he would appear with Dany beside him it is also a good way to legitimize his identity. Of course, marrying her is a stronger way to do that, but I think that having her as an ally is already enough to inspire other to their cause, or making him more 'believable', especially considering the pay off can be quite good if both are available for marriage.

[Amris]

Whatever we may think about Varys and Illyrio sponsoring two Targaryen lines simultaneously (or a Targayen and a Blackfyre line which amounts to the same thing) - ADwD makes it clear that that really was their plan. Because Tristan Rivers explicitly says so in the chapter in which the Griffs join up with the Golden Company.

"Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. ..."

There are good reasons to debate whether this plan was a good idea - but we have to accept it was the plan.

Now the arguments in this threat saying that marrying Dany to Aegon would give him much-needed legitimacy make a lot of sense to me. Since Varys and Illyrio still went the other way and gave her to Drogo instead I have to assume the counterveiling argument was outweighing the legitimacy issue (in Varys and Illyrios' minds at least).

The only real counterveiling argument we know of is the one about gaining Drogo's army. And it makes sense too since we know for a fact that the Golden Company lacks the numbers to take Westeros on its own. So I think it is safe to assume that Illyrios and Varys' stated reason for sacrificing Dany - gaining Drogos khalasar for an invasion of Westeros - actually was their real reason.

If events had unfolded as originally planned (which they didn't of course) this would sooner or later have lead to a confrontation between Viserys and Aegon. That's one of the obvious drawbacks of the plan. But since we know it definitely was the plan we can infer that Varys and Illyrio had an idea of how to solve this. Which would mean getting rid of Viserys somehow (probably through murder). As has already - and rightly IMO - been concluded upthread. Since according to Tristan Rivers Viserys and 'his' Dothraki had been supposed to join up with the Golden Company we can conclude this murder was supposed to take place only after this joining. Maybe even as late as after the invasion of Westeros. But it must have been planned to take place eventually or the whole Aegon plot would not make sense.

Back to the dragon eggs: Why give them to Dany and not to Aegon when Aegon is the end-game in Illyrio's and Varys plans?

(That the dragon eggs were needed as a plot-devide for Dany is the real reason of course and we know it - but the in-world reason for Illyrio does exist and makes some sense at least:)

I think the posters upthread who have pointed out that no one expected the eggs to hatch are right on spot.

When all is said and done they were just pretty baubles to buy off the barbarian chief. Expensive and rare baubles maybe - but still baubles. Even in his weirdest dreams Illyrio would not have thought Dany might actually hatch them. They were supposedly turned to stone after all.

And by giving them 'to Dany' Illyrio also gave them to Drogo since Dany was supposed to more or less end up being owned by Drogo. So the eggs were not only meant to advanced Dany's status in Drogo's eyes but also to increase Drogo's wealth and status, being an additional bribe to buy his khalasar for the invasion.

That the Dothraki pretend to not buy or sell but rather receive gifts and give gifts in return the eggs were perfect. Valuable yet not looking like an obvious bribe.

Of course this whole selling Dany off as a sex slave is inhumane and misogynistic in the extreme and thus George set up the story so that it turns out the supposedly harmless and helpless little girl turns out to be so much more, derailing Varys' and Illyrio's plans and (hopefully) getting back to them in the end.

 

 

 

 

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Maxxine said:

I agree it wasn't planned from the beginning, but it was just a lousy plan with too many what ifs like most of their supposed plans. What if Jorah never got the letter? What if Jorah didn't get there in time to stop the wine seller? What if Drogo didn't give a damn about Dany (unlikely bc of Rhaego but still a possibility)? What if Drogo only wanted to punish the wine sellers? I understand all plans have risks but Varys & Illyrio always seem to put a lot hope in 3rd parties they have no way of controlling for them to be considered good schemers 

That is easily resolved. The wine wasn't poisoned. Illyrio/Varys provided the man with his mission and gave him the 'poisoned wine cask' to sell it to Dany/Viserys so that they could drink it later (remember, he doesn't want to poison her at his shop). More than enough time for Jorah to get the letter because, you know, the caravan came from Pentos and Illyrio's agents would have traveled with it.

The point of the whole charade was to convince Drogo that Dany/Viserys were truly in danger, and that Robert would stop at nothing to get at them. That would then provoke his anger. Assuming that he cared about them. If Dany and Viserys had both disappointed them he would have killed them both himself.

@Amris

We have no reason to believe Aegon should have joined the Golden Company, though. What we do know is that Tristan Rivers claims Viserys III and the Dothraki were supposed to team up with the Golden Company. Perhaps the plan was to introduce Prince Aegon only to the game at a later point in the time line, while the Dothraki and the Golden Company were already invading Westeros? Possibly only at a point in time where Viserys and Drogo were already dead? 

What if the plan was to have Viserys, the Dothraki, and the Golden Company help the Seven Kingdoms to rip each other apart, killing all the potential rivals Prince Aegon might have? And then have Prince Aegon come over to heal the wounds of the people and rebuild the Realm like Jaehaerys I did after Maegor's reign of terror? Jaehaerys wasn't the first to challenge Maegor's claim to the Iron Throne, either. He was the last to stand up against him and that's why he succeeded.

[Amris]

54 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is easily resolved. The wine wasn't poisoned. Illyrio/Varys provided the man with his mission and gave him the 'poisoned wine cask' to sell it to Dany/Viserys so that they could drink it later (remember, he doesn't want to poison her at his shop). More than enough time for Jorah to get the letter because, you know, the caravan came from Pentos and Illyrio's agents would have traveled with it.

The point of the whole charade was to convince Drogo that Dany/Viserys were truly in danger, and that Robert would stop at nothing to get at them. That would then provoke his anger. Assuming that he cared about them. If Dany and Viserys had both disappointed them he would have killed them both himself.

@Amris

We have no reason to believe Aegon should have joined the Golden Company, though. What we do know is that Tristan Rivers claims Viserys III and the Dothraki were supposed to team up with the Golden Company. Perhaps the plan was to introduce Prince Aegon only to the game at a later point in the time line, while the Dothraki and the Golden Company were already invading Westeros? Possibly only at a point in time where Viserys and Drogo were already dead? 

What if the plan was to have Viserys, the Dothraki, and the Golden Company help the Seven Kingdoms to rip each other apart, killing all the potential rivals Prince Aegon might have? And then have Prince Aegon come over to heal the wounds of the people and rebuild the Realm like Jaehaerys I did after Maegor's reign of terror? Jaehaerys wasn't the first to challenge Maegor's claim to the Iron Throne, either. He was the last to stand up against him and that's why he succeeded.

Yes Tristan Rivers did not say when Aegon was supposed to be revealed. So it is possible Aegon was supposed to be kept secret while Viserys and his army invaded Westeros.

However I have two issues with this:

One is that according to Tristan Rivers the Golden Company at least was definitely meant to join up with the Dothraki. If Aegon was not supposed to join also then Viserys would have had both armies and Aegon none!

Yes, it is true, Varys and Illyrio's thoughts could have been that IF Viserys, using both armies, bungles the invasion anyway, disgracing himself and IF Viserys thereby causes confusion in the realm (instead of uniting the realm against the invader which would be the more logical reaction) and IF the population then for some reason believes the only then newly revealed Aegon whom they have never heard of before is the real deal and IF the population then sees said Aegon (and not one of a dozen or so other high-ranking nobles of the realm whom they have long known) as the savior then Aegon could be kept under wraps until then.

But that seems like an awful lot of IFs to me. Especially since in the meantime the fact would be that Viserys had all the military power and the chance to conquer Westeros - and Aegon none.

Two is that I think we all agree that Aegon has a serious legitimacy problem.

Whether he is really the son of Rhaegar and Elia - or a Blackfyre descendent - or not even that - the lords of the realm will need some definite convincing that the long dead Aegon is suddenly alive and well.

Now since according to the original plan Dany was not available to marry Aegon and solve his legitimacy problem the suggestion I read upthread - that Aegon's association with Viserys would help to give him legitimacy - has quite a lot of merit IMO.

The plan would then have been to present Viserys as the official Targaryen king come back with both armies to reclaim his realm with Aegon as his second in command and heir apparent - and then killing off Viserys at a convenient time, promoting the heir apparent to king. Thus people would have had time to adjust to thinking of Aegon as being part of the Targaryen invasion and at least being the supposed heir to Viserys before the question of Aegon becoming king ever comes up.

 

[Stormking902]

31 minutes ago, Amris said:

Yes Tristan Rivers did not say when Aegon was supposed to be revealed. So it is possible Aegon was supposed to be kept secret while Viserys and his army invaded Westeros.

However I have two issues with this:

One is that according to Tristan Rivers the Golden Company at least was definitely meant to join up with the Dothraki. If Aegon was not supposed to join also then Viserys would have had both armies and Aegon none!

Yes, it is true, Varys and Illyrio's thoughts could have been that IF Viserys, using both armies, bungles the invasion anyway, disgracing himself and IF Viserys thereby causes confusion in the realm (instead of uniting the realm against the invader which would be the more logical reaction) and IF the population then for some reason believes the only then newly revealed Aegon whom they have never heard of before is the real deal and IF the population then sees said Aegon (and not one of a dozen or so other high-ranking nobles of the realm whom they have long known) as the savior then Aegon could be kept under wraps until then.

But that seems like an awful lot of IFs to me. Especially since in the meantime the fact would be that Viserys had all the military power and the chance to conquer Westeros - and Aegon none.

Two is that I think we all agree that Aegon has a serious legitimacy problem.

Whether he is really the son of Rhaegar and Elia - or a Blackfyre descendent - or not even that - the lords of the realm will need some definite convincing that the long dead Aegon is suddenly alive and well.

Now since according to the original plan Dany was not available to marry Aegon and solve his legitimacy problem the suggestion I read upthread - that Aegon's association with Viserys would help to give him legitimacy - has quite a lot of merit IMO.

The plan would then have been to present Viserys as the official Targaryen king come back with both armies to reclaim his realm with Aegon as his second in command and heir apparent - and then killing off Viserys at a convenient time, promoting the heir apparent to king. Thus people would have had time to adjust to thinking of Aegon as being part of the Targaryen invasion and at least being the supposed heir to Viserys before the question of Aegon becoming king ever comes up.

 

IMO Viserys would never keep Faegon around and for good reason Faegon has the lawful and better claim than Viserys and Viserys dad was the (mad) king being raised partly by the (mad) king and Faegon the son of every maidens fantasy prince Rhegar. Also if you were the Martells who would you back Viserys who might marry your daughter or your nephew?. 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Amris said:

However I have two issues with this:

One is that according to Tristan Rivers the Golden Company at least was definitely meant to join up with the Dothraki. If Aegon was not supposed to join also then Viserys would have had both armies and Aegon none!

 

That is true. But then, we don't know if the original plan was ever for Aegon to conquer Westeros with an invading force.

1 hour ago, Amris said:

Yes, it is true, Varys and Illyrio's thoughts could have been that IF Viserys, using both armies, bungles the invasion anyway, disgracing himself and IF Viserys thereby causes confusion in the realm (instead of uniting the realm against the invader which would be the more logical reaction) and IF the population then for some reason believes the only then newly revealed Aegon whom they have never heard of before is the real deal and IF the population then sees said Aegon (and not one of a dozen or so other high-ranking nobles of the realm whom they have long known) as the savior then Aegon could be kept under wraps until then.

But that seems like an awful lot of IFs to me. Especially since in the meantime the fact would be that Viserys had all the military power and the chance to conquer Westeros - and Aegon none.

Not necessarily. Keep in mind that the invasion was always supposed to coincide with a civil war in Westeros, beginning with the death of Robert Baratheon. With five kings running around it would have been difficult for Westeros to unite against Viserys III, especially since the remaining Targaryen loyalists would have joined him.

The North and the Riverlands could easily enough have declared for Viserys III had the man shown up right around the time Robb had liberated Riverrun. 

Viserys III and Drogo themselves could easily enough been killed during or after their campaigns were over. Keep in mind that Varys and Illyrio would have been heavily involved in the entire thing.

And had he died without issue - and had the Targaryen-Baratheons all been killed or be revealed to be bastards, too - the Realm would have still needed somebody to sit the Iron Throne. That would have been Aegon's hour. Somebody has to sit that chair, and with all the claimants and pretenders dead he could have exploited that power vacuum without being forced to actually wage a war.

1 hour ago, Amris said:

Two is that I think we all agree that Aegon has a serious legitimacy problem.

Only right now with there being other Targaryen alternatives. A dragonless Dany wouldn't have been a threat to Aegon. And as things stand now Aegon has to conquer the Iron Throne himself. If that wasn't the original plan then the legitimacy issue right now might become a problem. 

1 hour ago, Amris said:

The plan would then have been to present Viserys as the official Targaryen king come back with both armies to reclaim his realm with Aegon as his second in command and heir apparent - and then killing off Viserys at a convenient time, promoting the heir apparent to king. Thus people would have had time to adjust to thinking of Aegon as being part of the Targaryen invasion and at least being the supposed heir to Viserys before the question of Aegon becoming king ever comes up.

It is certainly possible that they would have brought in Aegon before Viserys III died, installing him as his heir. That would, most likely, have depended on the success of Viserys' campaign. And keep in mind that a widowed Dany could always have been used to give Aegon more legitimacy.

You have to keep in mind that Illyrio is telling Tyrion a lot of lies in ADwD. He doesn't tell him about Aegon and Connington, just about Daenerys. Most of the talks between these two men are a game. Illyrio is testing Tyrion. He wants to know whether he is going to be a real asset to their plans. Tyrion has to figure out for himself who Aegon is. And thus we have actually no good reason to believe Illyrio when he says he expected Dany to die in the Dothraki Sea. He doesn't lay all his cards on the table back then, and he sort of tries to paint as if he has not invested all that much into this Targaryen restoration business. If Illyrio were just some rich cheesemonger who helped Viserys III to marry his sister to Khal Drogo one would expect him to not care all that much about Dany. But he isn't just some rich cheesemonger, right?

[Frey family reunion]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

That is a possibility. Illyrio and Varys begin to share some of their plans with the reader but it is unlikely that we know everything about them already. If they believed in certain prophecies they would have known that the savior has to go through some ordeals. Nobody told Azor Ahai how to make himself a proper Lightbringer. He had to figure that out all by himself. Just as Dany figured out how to hatch the dragon eggs.

Varys was in a unique position to learn everything about the important prophecies - the prophecy about the promised prince, the Ghost's prophecy to Jaehaerys II, Rhaegar's and Aemon's interpretation of those prophecies, etc. And he could have had his own prophetic dragon dreams if he actually has dragon blood.

Dany meets a lot of criteria for the promised prince. She was born on Dragonstone. Her birth was heralded by signs and portents, and she is Aerys and Rhaella's child - one possible interpretation of the Ghost's prophecy is that it will be one of their children. Viserys III was born in KL, and Rhaegar at Summerhall. Only Dany was born at the place of smoke and salt.

My general thought is Illyrio didn't share everything he knew with Varys.  If the Red Priest foretold that Dany would be the "mother of dragons" he may not have made the association with Dany until he saw her at the "wedding shower" in Drogo's manse.  So my guess is the wedding gift of the dragon eggs to Dany may have been a last minute decision of Illyrio based on information provided by the Red Priest after the wedding shower.  Almost an afterthought to Illyrio's main plan, one that already was sealed, of giving Dany to Khal Drogo.

For all we know Varys may have intended on gifting the eggs to Aegon after they put him on the throne, but Illyrio made the decision to gift them to Dany to see if the Red Priest was correct in his prediction.  If so, then perhaps Jorah was instructed to keep an eye on them, during their travels.  And in fact Jorah is on hand to stop Viserys from stealing them. 

As for Illyrio's thought that he didn't expect Dany to survive the Dothraki Sea, this could mean one of several things.  One, Illyrio may not have fully believed the prophecy.  After all these Red Priests seem to have varying levels of success with their predictions.  Or it could mean that Illyrio didn't expect Dany to survive the hatching.  

 

[Amris]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

[snip]

It is certainly possible that they would have brought in Aegon before Viserys III died, installing him as his heir. That would, most likely, have depended on the success of Viserys' campaign.

And keep in mind that a widowed Dany could always have been used to give Aegon more legitimacy.

[snip)

Yes of course, it is possible they planned to wait and see if Viserys was doing good before deciding to put the Aegon card on the table. But that option comes with its own problem:

It would increase the risk of Viserys outright rejecting to take Aegon in!

Because if and when Viserys actually was militarily successful in Westeros - and already had all the troups at that point, both the Dothraki and the Golden Company, and also had already gotten the transport fleet out of them and taken his forces over - why would he then take in some stranger who might pose a threat to him?

On the other hand before they handed him the Golden Company and the necessary fleet to reach Westeros they had much better leverage over Viserys to force him to compromise on the Aegon issue.

As to the possibility of Dany surviving the Dothraki Sea, getting widowed and marrying Aegon at a later point:

Sure, anything is possible.

However we are talking Varys and Illyrio's original plan at the moment. Prior to Drogo's death, prior even to Dany's marriage to Drogo. And at that point there was no way for Varys and Illyrio to be sure whether Dany would survive among the Dothraki and be widowed and be available to marry Aegon later. And not being sent to the Dosh Khaleen. They may have kept this possibility in mind as a option - sure. But could they have made a plan that depended on Aegon being able to marry Dany even though they gave her to Drogo? No way.

They must have had another string to their bow to solve the legitimacy issue. And setting Aegon up as heir apparent to Viserys would serve nicely as that string.

[devilish]

I doubt Illyio would have gone through great pains in

a-      Protecting Danny and Viserys

b-      Broker a marriage deal between an unpredictable killer at the head of a 40k Dothraki army and the dragon queen

c-       Donate Danny 3 highly expensive dragon eggs which are worth a sellsword army

d-      Work hard to convince the GC in joining the fray

Just to have the Targ spawn killed. Danny and Viserys were Illyio’s plan A, which makes sense on every level. Viserys was Aerys true born heir, he was single and he should have been at the back of a Dothraki horde pretty soon. That enough would probably convince the GC that they stand a valuable chance of winning and should have rallied on Robert’s enemies under 1 banner. Viserys + Drogo’s horde + GC + Dorne + Iron Islands + probably the Reach could smash the place especially if Varys feeds them intel and a scandal and/or Robert’s death ends up breaking Westeros in tiny pieces. Maybe there’s a reason why Jaqen found himself arrested in KL.

Viserys and Drogo premature death forced Illyio to reconsider plan B ie Aegon. However let us not kid ourselves. Viserys was plan A not Aegon. Else he would have given him the eggs not to Danny.

[Frey family reunion]

22 minutes ago, devilish said:

I doubt Illyio would have gone through great pains in

 

a-      Protecting Danny and Viserys

 

b-      Broker a marriage deal between an unpredictable killer at the head of a 40k Dothraki army and the dragon queen

 

c-       Donate Danny 3 highly expensive dragon eggs which are worth a sellsword army

 

d-      Work hard to convince the GC in joining the fray

 

Just to have the Targ spawn killed. Danny and Viserys were Illyio’s plan A, which makes sense on every level. Viserys was Aerys true born heir, he was single and he should have been at the back of a Dothraki horde pretty soon. That enough would probably convince the GC that they stand a valuable chance of winning and should have rallied on Robert’s enemies under 1 banner. Viserys + Drogo’s horde + GC + Dorne + Iron Islands + probably the Reach could smash the place especially if Varys feeds them intel and a scandal and/or Robert’s death ends up breaking Westeros in tiny pieces. Maybe there’s a reason why Jaqen found himself arrested in KL.

 

Viserys and Drogo premature death forced Illyio to reconsider plan B ie Aegon. However let us not kid ourselves. Viserys was plan A not Aegon. Else he would have given him the eggs not to Danny.

 

Illyrio was utterly contemptuous of Viserys

Illyrio gave Viserys a Dothraki horde who at best could only sack and pillage, not conquer. 

Viserys was only step 1, not plan A.

[devilish]

27 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Illyrio was utterly contemptuous of Viserys

Illyrio gave Viserys a Dothraki horde who at best could only sack and pillage, not conquer. 

Viserys was only step 1, not plan A.

I disagree. Khal Drogo would pillage and sack unless provoked and that's exactly what Robert did. He provoked him. When the King decided to kill his wife, it became personal and he wanted to conquer Westeros.

Which I suspect Illyio knew what the reactions of the two main players very well. Robert couldn't resist from poking the dragon once it got powerful and Drogo wouldn't have allowed anyone trying to kill his wife without making him pay and strip him from all his belongings. 

[SeanF]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is true. But then, we don't know if the original plan was ever for Aegon to conquer Westeros with an invading force.

Not necessarily. Keep in mind that the invasion was always supposed to coincide with a civil war in Westeros, beginning with the death of Robert Baratheon. With five kings running around it would have been difficult for Westeros to unite against Viserys III, especially since the remaining Targaryen loyalists would have joined him.

The North and the Riverlands could easily enough have declared for Viserys III had the man shown up right around the time Robb had liberated Riverrun. 

Viserys III and Drogo themselves could easily enough been killed during or after their campaigns were over. Keep in mind that Varys and Illyrio would have been heavily involved in the entire thing.

And had he died without issue - and had the Targaryen-Baratheons all been killed or be revealed to be bastards, too - the Realm would have still needed somebody to sit the Iron Throne. That would have been Aegon's hour. Somebody has to sit that chair, and with all the claimants and pretenders dead he could have exploited that power vacuum without being forced to actually wage a war.

Only right now with there being other Targaryen alternatives. A dragonless Dany wouldn't have been a threat to Aegon. And as things stand now Aegon has to conquer the Iron Throne himself. If that wasn't the original plan then the legitimacy issue right now might become a problem. 

It is certainly possible that they would have brought in Aegon before Viserys III died, installing him as his heir. That would, most likely, have depended on the success of Viserys' campaign. And keep in mind that a widowed Dany could always have been used to give Aegon more legitimacy.

You have to keep in mind that Illyrio is telling Tyrion a lot of lies in ADwD. He doesn't tell him about Aegon and Connington, just about Daenerys. Most of the talks between these two men are a game. Illyrio is testing Tyrion. He wants to know whether he is going to be a real asset to their plans. Tyrion has to figure out for himself who Aegon is. And thus we have actually no good reason to believe Illyrio when he says he expected Dany to die in the Dothraki Sea. He doesn't lay all his cards on the table back then, and he sort of tries to paint as if he has not invested all that much into this Targaryen restoration business. If Illyrio were just some rich cheesemonger who helped Viserys III to marry his sister to Khal Drogo one would expect him to not care all that much about Dany. But he isn't just some rich cheesemonger, right?

I agree with all of that.  The amount of backing that Illyrio gives to Daenerys makes no sense if he just expects her to die.  What's more, he seems to bear her no ill will for taking his three ships and their cargoes and for her campaign against the slave trade, which must have cost him quite a lot (even if slave trading isn't his main line of business).  Either he expects to gain financially from her victory (and she does recognise that she owes Illyrio a lot) or he is genuinely committed to the Targaryen cause - and one doesn't rule out the other.  There have always been multimillioaires who have been willing to stake their fortunes to support contenders for power.

[SeanF]

My view is that Illyrio and Varys support the Targaryens in general, and by backing Viserys, Dany, and Aegon they're keeping three irons in the fire.  If one gets killed, there are still the other two.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Amris said:

Yes of course, it is possible they planned to wait and see if Viserys was doing good before deciding to put the Aegon card on the table. But that option comes with its own problem:

It would increase the risk of Viserys outright rejecting to take Aegon in!

Because if and when Viserys actually was militarily successful in Westeros - and already had all the troups at that point, both the Dothraki and the Golden Company, and also had already gotten the transport fleet out of them and taken his forces over - why would he then take in some stranger who might pose a threat to him?

That is a valid point. I'm with you that installing Aegon as Viserys III's heir after he had already taken the Iron Throne would have been difficult. But not necessarily impossible.

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On the other hand before they handed him the Golden Company and the necessary fleet to reach Westeros they had much better leverage over Viserys to force him to compromise on the Aegon issue.

That certainly is true as well.

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As to the possibility of Dany surviving the Dothraki Sea, getting widowed and marrying Aegon at a later point:

Sure, anything is possible.

Not anything, but quite a few things.

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However we are talking Varys and Illyrio's original plan at the moment. Prior to Drogo's death, prior even to Dany's marriage to Drogo. And at that point there was no way for Varys and Illyrio to be sure whether Dany would survive among the Dothraki and be widowed and be available to marry Aegon later. And not being sent to the Dosh Khaleen. They may have kept this possibility in mind as a option - sure. But could they have made a plan that depended on Aegon being able to marry Dany even though they gave her to Drogo? No way.

Sure, Dany marrying Aegon was never part of the original plan.

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They must have had another string to their bow to solve the legitimacy issue. And setting Aegon up as heir apparent to Viserys would serve nicely as that string.

Now, the problem with this whole thing is that we should not get ahead of ourselves and believe we have all the pieces of the puzzle yet. Illyrio's words about Dany could be not exactly be the truth, and Tristan Rivers might not exactly be an expert on Varys and Illyrio's original plans.

The whole thing is essentially a Targaryen restoration plan. The existence of Aegon was a very closely guarded secret, evident both in Connington faking his death and Tyrion not being told who Griff and Young Griff actually are despite him traveling with them and being completely at their mercy.

At the core of the Aegon plan are Varys, Illyrio, and the late Myles Toyne. They were at that secret conference in Lys where Aegon was given to Jon Connington. Now, a lot of people believe that Toyne knew who Aegon actually is (if he isn't Rhaegar's son) but if that's the case then the other officers of the Golden Company don't have to know that. Toyne (and Strickland after him) could have told them that they were Targaryen men now, and would restore some ousted Red Dragon to the Iron Throne to finally get back home. Some twenty years after the death of Maelys that would not be implausible. The Blackfyres are gone but the Golden Company is still there, and now there is the chance to restore a Targaryen to the Iron Throne and return home in the process.

There is even another possibility - that Varys and Illyrio lied even to Myles Toyne, telling him to that Aegon was Rhaegar's son and convincing him to agree to put him on the Iron Throne.

If Aegon is Illyrio's son then Jon Connington and the lad himself should never suspect this until it is too late (i.e. until after Aegon sits the Iron Throne) else the whole plan could go awry.

If the Golden Company officers genuinely believe that they are supporting the Targaryen cause now it makes sense for them to believe they would team up with Viserys III.

We know the men were told about Aegon before Connington revealed his identity but we don't know how far in advance this was done. Did Blackheart tell Strickland before his death? Or only Illyrio later on when he send word to him to march the company to Volantis? We know from Duck that Strickland sent him to Griff on Illyrio's orders so that he could train the boy but did Strickland then know who (Young) Griff was? Those are all unresolved questions.

And by the way, who is the savior Illyrio speaks about in Tyrion's first chapter in ADwD? Aegon or Dany? He ends the chapter with the 'a dragon with three heads' punchline, and we learn in the next chapter that Illyrio told Tyrion about Dany, but is she truly the savior Illyrio has in mind? One wonders...

8 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I agree with all of that.  The amount of backing that Illyrio gives to Daenerys makes no sense if he just expects her to die.  What's more, he seems to bear her no ill will for taking his three ships and their cargoes and for her campaign against the slave trade, which must have cost him quite a lot (even if slave trading isn't his main line of business).  Either he expects to gain financially from her victory (and she does recognise that she owes Illyrio a lot) or he is genuinely committed to the Targaryen cause - and one doesn't rule out the other.  There have always been multimillioaires who have been willing to stake their fortunes to support contenders for power.

The few things I think we can believe Illyrio was honest about was his contempt for the Westerosi nobles identifying with their houses and heraldic animals. He makes it quite clear that a dragon is still a dragon, never mind the color, and I don't think that's an act. He and Varys aren't in the game to destroy the Targaryens or replace them with some Blackfyre descendants (although they might have once been tempted to do just that, when Aerys' madness was destroying the Realm).

Dany and Viserys are pretty much in the same situation their own ancestors were if they are Targaryen/Blackfyre descendants. They are certainly not philanthropists but they clearly don't want to kill them, either.

1 hour ago, devilish said:

I disagree. Khal Drogo would pillage and sack unless provoked and that's exactly what Robert did. He provoked him. When the King decided to kill his wife, it became personal and he wanted to conquer Westeros.

Which I suspect Illyio knew what the reactions of the two main players very well. Robert couldn't resist from poking the dragon once it got powerful and Drogo wouldn't have allowed anyone trying to kill his wife without making him pay and strip him from all his belongings. 

If the wine had been poisoned and if Dany hadn't been warned in time Drogo would have died, too. And there would have been no invasion. And if Dany/Viserys had died of apparent natural causes because a costly poison like the Tears of Lys was used then there wouldn't have been an invasion, either.