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German politics xth attempt


kiko

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5 minutes ago, Jo498 said:

The economic crisis of 2007/08 was only made possible because Schroeder/Eichel went against Lafontaine's advice in 1999 and loosened up banking regulations etc.

Are we overstating the size and strength of the German banking sector a bit?

Yes, loosening banking regulations was a bad idea, and so were few other reforms, too. But your statement is blowing the influence of Schröder and Eichel out of proportions. The banking crisis had its origin in the US, and their nigh to non-existent regulations, so I find it a bit disingenious or irrational to lay the blame for that on the SPD.

11 minutes ago, Jo498 said:

The truly horrible thing is how they can believe it would work this time. With Schulz, of all people. He is a pure career politician. Before he entered politics he was largely a failure (left school, alcoholic) but then suddenly the youngest mayor...

At first this argument sounds nice, but only as long as one does not bother to spend a thought or two on it. Let's reverse this argument with the career politician. XY would be a good candidate (and ultimately chancellor), because he is not a (career) politician. So yes, let's put a moron with zero experience in charge, what could possibly go wrong? I should note, that I am humming Hail to the Chief now. You can make the argument, that lawyers are overrepresented in politics, which is true. Because who else has enough time on their hand/could work part time to go into politics? But then again, the book merchant is probably closer to the man of the people than most of his colleagues.

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Sorry, I was unclear. Of course the banking crisis was in the US. But most of the worst consequences for Germany could have been avoided had the measures been in place that were only abolished a few years earlier by Eichel. But strategically the point was that Merkel somehow managed to gain during 2005-09 whereas the SPD catastrophically lost during that time. And they have not realized their errors, neither the political ones (still no good regulation for banksters in place, now nobody wants to be blamed for the notorious "cum-ex" fraud...) nor the strategic one that a coalition with Merkel hurts them badly.

As for the second point. I deny that Schulz is a "man of the people". Or only in the weak sense that he stems from the (lower?) middle class. The "people" are not too fond of the European Parliament (for understandable reasons) and Schulz has been sitting there for a long time raking in money a book seller could only dream of. I don't think he is any worse than most other politicians. But certainly not a "breath of fresh air".

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6 minutes ago, Jo498 said:

But most of the worst consequences for Germany could have been avoided had the measures been in place that were only abolished a few years earlier by Eichel.

Quod erat demonstrandum, I guess. I am somewhat sceptical with regards to that claim. Imho banks would have found a way around it. To think, Germany could have stayed largely unaffected by the banking crisis is (at least imho) a bit naive, the financial sector is too intertwined for that.

12 minutes ago, Jo498 said:

As for the second point. I deny that Schulz is a "man of the people".

Not exactly what I said, I said Schulz is probably closer to that man of people thing than well over 90% of the people in parliament right now. So that highschool drop out, who overcame an alcohol addiction, became a book merchant, then youngest mayor etc. looks like a more relatable resumee than the stereotypical: finished highschool, did his military service, studied law, worked as a lawyer (optionally became leader of the youth organization of his party at some point), member of state parliament, member of the bundestag (or governor of a state) with the optional federal minister of whatever.

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Jo498 and Notone pretty much summed up the current political situation. I've pretty much given up to see any decent politics in my lifetime, but I'd have appreciated at least a bit of suspense for the Bundestag elections... Of course, with Schulz, everyone already knows the emperor has no clothes, after all, so... yawn.

Anyway, I just wanted to post a nice little tidbit about the AfD which, I think, has not been covered: A couple of weeks ago, they elected two party leaders. One, well-known, old, right-wing even for AfD standards. The second, until-now lesser known leader of this nationalist and homophobic party is a lesbian. Who lives with a non-German. Raising children. Abroad. Oh, and she's even more right-wing!

>>(the actually unemployed and poor) hardly vote at all, it seems open if they would even bother even in such a case. These non-voters might be sunk to deep into depression, videogames, some other stupor to care.

Yeah, who could have guessed? You create a precariate and only 20 years later, they just don't care anymore...

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This shows what an inhomogeneous bunch the AfD is. The blonde Lesbian consultant with an economics PhD would usually be pure FDP material (she probably hoped for a faster career in the AfD), the others are more like right wing CDU. Recall that there is the idea in the media that Merkel pushed the CDU to the left. This is completely false in economics but has a little truth in "social symbol" policies, e.g. gay rights or more generally internationalism and pro-EU-stances.

I don't know how old you are but my frustration as someone who grew up in the "stasis" of the Kohl years and thought it could hardly get any worse, is huge!

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9 hours ago, Jo498 said:

the others are more like right wing CDU. Recall that there is the idea in the media that Merkel pushed the CDU to the left.

They are what the right wing of the CDU used to be. Give her some credit where credit is due. Most of those people (in the furthest sense of the word), have been driven out of the CDU. Kanther, Koch, Steinbach. They are no longer there. Hell even Bosbach is gone. The crazy soundsbites come mostly from Bavaria (CSU). The last jackass standing is pretty much de Maziere, wll ok, to a somewhat lesser extent Schäuble also falls into that category.

I am not huge fan of Angie, but I gained quite a lot of respect for her, when she dismissed crazy Horst upper limits BS during the refugee crises, when she pointed out that the Constitution knows no such limit. The CDU is not a left party by any stretch of the imagination, but she has pushed the CDU to the center, which is a move to the left compared to the Kohl era.

As for the blonde Nazi bitch. No, not the aforementioned Steinbach. I mean Weidel. Of course her old employer was Goldman Sachs.

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23 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

Anyway, I just wanted to post a nice little tidbit about the AfD which, I think, has not been covered: A couple of weeks ago, they elected two party leaders. One, well-known, old, right-wing even for AfD standards. The second, until-now lesser known leader of this nationalist and homophobic party is a lesbian. Who lives with a non-German. Raising children. Abroad. Oh, and she's even more right-wing!

Just because you have a thing for women doesn't mean your political views have to reflect that all that much. We have a lot of gay politicians over here - Jens Spahn, Guido Westerwelle, Klaus Wowereit, Volker Beck - but aside from Beck and Wowereit up to a point none of those can be considered to be particularly progressive or left. A man like Westerwelle could have made a huge impact in normalizing homosexuality but aside from his very existence he didn't do anything in that regard throughout his entire career.

Alice Weidel has to be classified as an ultra-right-wing libertarian (something we don't have all that much in Germany). Her dissertation advisor, Peter Oberender, apparently even wanted to legalize organ trade. Who doesn't want to sell one of his kidneys to resolve a financial crisis? https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Oberender

This doesn't mean that Frau Weidel also shares such views, but, well, if I resented that kind of thinking this guy wouldn't have advised my dissertation.

And, of course, she was heading the Programmkommission of the AfD. She does not only know what they are about, she most likely controlled the establishment of the official party lines to no small degree.

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On 15.5.2017 at 7:59 PM, Jo498 said:

Sorry, I was unclear. Of course the banking crisis was in the US. But most of the worst consequences for Germany could have been avoided had the measures been in place that were only abolished a few years earlier by Eichel.

As far as I know you are completely right in that assessment. It was the SPD government under Schröder and Eichel who allowed the banks to invest in and sell the kind of shit securities that turned out to be worth nothing. If that hadn't happened, the crisis wouldn't have hit the people here as hard (or mild) as it did. Banks can be regulated, and if you can't sell certain things, people can't buy them. And if they can't buy them they won't be ruined by them.

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On Schröder, he certainly had his faults, but his critics on the left are shooting the messenger. The whole move towards neoliberalism and globalisation is a global phenomenon and there isn't much a single national government can do about it short of leaving the EU and WTO. Agenda 2010 and the Hartz reforms were merely measures to get Germany adapted to changed circumstances. And that is of course also why Schulz has zero credibility. All he proposes is mere cosmetics and will cause more harm than good.

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No. This is exactly what they want us to believe. TINA. Globalization etc. Why are the pensions in Austria almost twice as high as in Germany (and this is before the devastating "reforms" really become relevant)? Last time I checked, Austria does not have huge oil wells. Why did the wages rise faster in France etc.

Germany has been the economically most powerful country in Europe since a long time. It was very powerful in the late 90s before the "reforms" kicked in. Since then Germany has taken off in full flight because it benefits from the EUR and the comparably cheap labor (compared to many other European countries) leading to huge trade imbalances and a lot of the problems in the "weaker" European countries like France are connected to that. If we still had the DM our "great German products" would be *far* more expensive because the exchange rate would have gone up and this would have led to more balanced economies.

It is up to us. If we decided to go hard on tax evaders (and the countries who harbor them) we could do it. Look what kind of pressure the US put on Switzerland  But "we" do not want to. Why don't people realize that their taxes could be lower if Hoeness, Amazon, Ikea were paying their fair share in Germany instead of evading?

Watch "Die Anstalt", check out Flassbeck's "Makroskop", https://makroskop.eu/2017/05/die-anstalt-faktencheck-zum-thema-loehne/

Nachdenkseiten, Norbert Häring's (who is not at all "far left", I believe) pages etc. There is a lot of information available showing that there are alternatives. But the SPD betrayed us (there is really no better word for it) and now there is only a weak Linke left, because all other parties have been neoliberalized so we are stuck with the TINA politicians for another while.

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3 hours ago, Jo498 said:

No. This is exactly what they want us to believe. TINA. Globalization etc. Why are the pensions in Austria almost twice as high as in Germany (and this is before the devastating "reforms" really become relevant)? Last time I checked, Austria does not have huge oil wells. Why did the wages rise faster in France etc.

Germany has been the economically most powerful country in Europe since a long time. It was very powerful in the late 90s before the "reforms" kicked in. Since then Germany has taken off in full flight because it benefits from the EUR and the comparably cheap labor (compared to many other European countries) leading to huge trade imbalances and a lot of the problems in the "weaker" European countries like France are connected to that. If we still had the DM our "great German products" would be *far* more expensive because the exchange rate would have gone up and this would have led to more balanced economies.

It is up to us. If we decided to go hard on tax evaders (and the countries who harbor them) we could do it. Look what kind of pressure the US put on Switzerland  But "we" do not want to. Why don't people realize that their taxes could be lower if Hoeness, Amazon, Ikea were paying their fair share in Germany instead of evading?

Watch "Die Anstalt", check out Flassbeck's "Makroskop", https://makroskop.eu/2017/05/die-anstalt-faktencheck-zum-thema-loehne/

Nachdenkseiten, Norbert Häring's (who is not at all "far left", I believe) pages etc. There is a lot of information available showing that there are alternatives. But the SPD betrayed us (there is really no better word for it) and now there is only a weak Linke left, because all other parties have been neoliberalized so we are stuck with the TINA politicians for another while.

I just talked with a coworker of mine who is east German in origin. 

To give you a better picture I work shift in a chemical plant which tends the be very well paid for a manufacturing job, relatively speaking (there are only a few fields where the pay as a plant operator tends to be better). The pay is easy to compare because plants and jobs can be as good as identical if the same process is used ( I have visited nearly identical plants in a number of countries). 

My coworker got paid about one third of what he earns now about 10 years ago when he was still working in Germany for more or less the same job(although he worked more hours per week in Germany ). He delivered pizza on the side to earn extra money(sometimes he earned more per month than on his main job).

I know it's only anecdotal but it feels the economy in Germany only works because people have to work for shitty pay even in taxing manufacturing jobs. And most seem to be glad about it because they can always look down at the Hartz 4 caste.

It does not seem as bad in Bavaria but the pay for the same position is still significantly worse. How to I know that? I have compared paychecks with Finnish and Bavarian shift operators working for my company. Food and beer are cheaper in Bavaria but where I live you can cross into the Czech Republic or Bavaria and shop cheaply too if you are so inclined (replace with Slovenia, Slovakia or Hungary if you live in other parts of Austria). Interestingly the situation in Finnland tends to be a bit worse as they get about the same pay without Xmas/holiday bonuses and the costs of living are significantly higher.

Don't misunderstand me I'm not complaining about my German coworkers at least those that I work with are skilled craftsmen and competent engineers(3 of 4 in my plant are Germans).

We have real problems filling shift positions with competent people because the gap between pay on the shift and pay for working "normal" hours has narrowed a lot since the early nineties and back in the day night shift was just for keeping the plants running(3 times the people doing half the work too but that's the same everywhere I guess). German engineers also tends to work for far less. Wirtschaftsflüchtlinge are more than welcome. :)

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 Yes, the sad truth is that we keep exporting not only material goods. The best and brightest go to the richer neighbor countries like Austria, Bavaria and Switzerland.

 This is what is holding back the wage development in most parts of Germany. There is not enough pressure from the middle class yet. They still have their options. But in the process they bleed the country dry.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

The headline and MSNBC article are somewhat misleading, and based on either a sloppy translation or poor translation on purpose. At least with regards to the cars.

Here's what the German article says in that respect.

Quote

Deutschland exportiert seit Jahren mehr, als es einführt. Trump hatte die deutschen Überschüsse schon früher zum Thema gemacht, der Präsident hatte sich bereits vor seinem Amtsantritt in einem Interview mit der "Bild"-Zeitung kritisch geäußert. Auch damals störte er sich vor allem an deutschen Autos auf New Yorks Straßen: "Ich würde BMW sagen, wenn sie eine Fabrik in Mexiko bauen und Autos in die USA verkaufen wollen ohne eine 35-Prozent-Steuer, dann können sie das vergessen", sagte Trump damals. Seitdem steht die Drohung einer Strafsteuer im Raum.

Here's the translation from sincerely yours.

Quote

For years Germany has been exporting more goods than it imports. Trump had made teh German trade surplus an issue earlier. In an interview with Bild before he took office Trump has made some critical remarks in that respect. Back then he took issue with the amount of German cars in the streets of New York. "I'd tell BMW, if you built a factory in Mexico to import cars into the US, without paying a tax of 35%, then they can forget it." was what Trump said back then. Since that day the threat of a punitive exists.

Which sounds a let less chest thumping than what MSNBC made of it. And it was really not the main issue of the article as whole. The main thing was what I mentioned in the US politics thread, that Trump and his gang were so clueless that it shocked the EU representatives (Juncker, Tusk, and later on also Tajani and Mogherini).

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  • 3 weeks later...

Since former chancellor and bribery patron deluxe Helmut Kohl has passed away, and is probably united with Thatcher and Reagan in one of Dante's circles (if you believe in such a place that is), I felt like the thread deserved another bump.

I felt somewhat annoyed by the glorification of that crook in the media (I know de mortuis nil nisi bonum etc., but they were really pushing it), and I wondered whether I was the only one. Then I saw the light, or the TAZ frontpage.

https://dl.taz.de/taz/shop/download_action.php?model=20100&typ=seite1

Small explanation for the non-German speaking readers.

The Headline reads: Blühende Landschaften (lit. blooming landscapes (in the sense of green pastures)) was what he promised would become of Eastern Germany (the former GDR).

 

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I just saw an article on Facebook that, I think, suggests Bavaria could leave Germany and join Austria.  Is this a real possibility?  I speak a smattering of German but not enough to read this article:

http://www.der-postillon.com/2015/06/urkunde-aus-dem-16-jahrhundert.html?m=1

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